Posted on 08/04/2024 11:33:47 AM PDT by thegagline
With the Democratic base seemingly mobilized after replacing President Biden at the top of the ticket, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are dead even in the battleground states, a new poll revealed.
Trump and Harris notched 50% apiece in the battleground state average, and the vice president scored a one-point lead over the Republican nominee in a national head-to-head matchup, a CBS News/YouGov poll found, garnering 50% to Trump’s 49%.
Republicans haven’t won the national popular vote in a presidential election since 2004.
In the battleground states, Michigan went 48% Harris to 48% Trump, with Pennsylvania (50%, 50%), Wisconsin (49%, 50%), Arizona (49%, 49%), Georgia (47%, 50%), Nevada (50%, 48%) and North Carolina (47%, 50%) all deadlocked at or near a statistical tie.
If the general election broke along those lines, Trump would lead in the Electoral College 261 to 232, but still falling short of the 270 electoral votes a candidate needs in order to win.
Powering Harris’ ascent in the CBS poll appears to be female, younger, and black voters flocking back to the Democrats.
The outlet’s July poll found that 58% of black voters indicated they planned to cast their ballots this cycle. Now that figure has jumped to 74%.
Female voters also had high marks for Harris relative to Trump, with 70% of them feeling her policies would help women, compared to 43% who said the same about Trump, per the CBS poll.
Harris was the choice among 45% of men and 54% of women. Meanwhile, Trump was the choice among 54% of men and 45% of women, according to the poll.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
“Powering Harris’ ascent in the CBS poll appears to be female, younger, and black voters flocking back to the Democrats.”
No one is flocking to Harris, especially not the groups cited above.
Oh noes a cbs poll, the same one who had biden up by 17 in wisconsin lol
Rich Baris calls it “the election mafia.” Guess who it always favors.
I don’t know why anyone is even contemplating that these might actually be accurate. They are not real and should be completely disregarded... Full stop.
No facts please
Again... Don’t believe it. Pretty graphics does not make it fact.
The steal is on. Dems are afraid they’re gonna have to work overtime this election - poor babies - to just squeak out a win for whoever ends up being the Dem candidate...
No, they are not “dead even.” Trump remains ahead in all genuine polling. They are juicing these numbers with D+ samples of 5-9 and heavily oversampling women.
Here is my twit thread about the shocking disconnect between actual voter registrations WHEREVER we track them and these moronic polls.
https://x.com/LarrySchweikart/status/1820159736513515990
The F’n women are killing us.
The media in this country can absolutely go F themselves in the worst way. They are by far the worst enemies of this country, all these pigs on CNN, MSNBC, ABC, NBC, CBS. They have done more damage to this country than any terror group could ever hope for.
If we had for once an honest media instead of this North Korean type propagandists, democrats wouldn’t even exist as a party never mind this absolute psychotic Kamala running even with one of the greatest Presidents in US history.
Where is the focus on her abusing her staff? Demanding they stand when she enters a room and calling her “General”? Completely ignored.
Agreed. Younger people have not been faring well under the current administration and it’s economics. It is interesting to see that in Oregon, she has a five point lead and I bet once you get out of Portland and Eugene, that state is getting even more redder.
All that bounce in a black heavy Poll, and it,’s STILL tied. I have President Trump at over 300 Ezv right now. Popular vote is close, and will be because Harris will win California by 50 points.
Trump’s support of the dangerous covid vaccine is probably a deal breaker for the loony RFK Jr.
Even if Harris is ahead nationally by 0.2%, Trump wins the Electoral College handily.
“The survey included an oversample of Black respondents.”
Yep... They are not honest polls.
“All that bounce in a black heavy Poll, and it,’s STILL tied. I have President Trump at over 300 Ezv right now. Popular vote is close, and will be because Harris will win California by 50 points.”
I agree, sounds about right. People need to quit believing these rigged polls.
I disagree. The issue of abortion is driving women into the arms of Harris.
Blacks embrace identity politics. Even though Harris is half Indian and partly white, blacks will vote for her because of the perception that she is black and, in addition, blacks have ironically adopted the one drop rule.
Absolutely.
HEADS UP.
RCP lists the most recent survey **by a given pollster** when a brand new one is released. This CBS news poll is out today. They list a result for July 16-18 ALSO.
They VERY EXPLICITLY SAY IN THEIR INTERNALS at the end of the survey that “blacks were oversampled”. This phrase does not appear in the July 16-18 survey.
This Harris +1 result vs T+2 in mid July is NOT THE SAME TURNOUT MODEL. They oversampled blacks, which most measurements now say would be something like 75% Harris.
It’s not hard to move the needle is you change the sampling profile. Overall, bogus.
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