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We are now roughly six and a half months from election day or election month, depending on your state’s election laws. Today, we’ll focus on Joe Biden’s recent polling surge, as shown in the Real Clear Politics Poll Average of Trump vs Biden. You will note Trump is up over Biden by a whopping 0.4 percentage points. If we remove the possible outlier Rasmussen survey from the average, showing Trump at +8, Joe Biden would be ahead by 0.4. Republicans might be dismayed by this, and Democrats encouraged. In January of this year, Trump was ahead of Biden by +4....

SHOCK POLL: Haley Tied with Trump in New Hampshire Nikki Haley (R-SC) is tied with Donald Trump in New Hampshire, according to a surprising new poll. American Research Group, Inc. showed Trump and Haley tied at 40% of likely Republican primary voters in the Granite State. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) was tied at 4% with... From https://www.mediaite.com/trump/shock-poll-haley-tied-with-trump-in-new-hampshire/

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has trimmed former President Donald Trump’s lead in the Republican primary race in New Hampshire to single digits, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire. Trump still holds a meaningful lead in the poll, with the backing of 39% of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire compared to Haley’s 32%. The rest of the field lags far behind in the poll, with former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 12%, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 5% and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson...

Nikki Haley doubles DeSantis' support. Donald Trump leads him by 57 points. Gov. Ron DeSantis arguably had his best performance in a national debate this week, with a widely viewed showdown with California’s Gavin Newsom the week before. But new polling suggests it might not matter. In the latest Emerson College poll, the Florida Governor has fallen to 7%, his worst showing in any national survey in the 2024 cycle. Adding insult to injury, DeSantis is actually at 6.7%, benefiting from rounding to even hit the modest 7% threshold. DeSantis trails Nikki Haley, who has double his support at 14%....

Fewer than 1 in 10 Iowans believe the Florida Governor is the best bet to deal with the current threat. Gov. Ron DeSantis has messaged heavily around the state response in the weeks since Hamas attacked Israeli citizens. But new polling from a key early state in the presidential race suggests that message may be hitting deaf ears. The Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted from Oct. 22 to Oct. 26 shows that just 9% of likely Hawkeye State caucus participants believe the Florida Governor is the best bet in the GOP field to address the situation in the...

President Biden is in a dead heat with former President Donald Trump in Michigan and holds narrow leads over his GOP rival in Minnesota and Colorado in a hypothetical 2024 rematch, according to a poll on Monday that focuses on key battlegrounds. *** This is particularly true in Colorado, where Mr. Biden has a 4-percentage-point lead over Mr Trump despite having won by a much larger margin in 2020. *** The emerging 2024 race is tight, with 44% of Michigan voters supporting Mr. Biden, 43% supporting Mr. Trump, 8% supporting someone else and 5% undecided.Mr. Kimball said the majority of...

Most Americans say Joe Biden and Donald Trump — their parties’ undisputed 2024 frontrunners — are not “fit” to serve another term as president, according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll. The survey of 1,638 U.S. adults, which was conducted from July 13-17, goes a step further than previous soundings by both Yahoo News/YouGov and other outlets, which have tended to ask whether Biden and Trump should run again — and have tended to find that most Americans would rather they didn’t. Instead, the new poll asked a more pointed question: Whether the two human beings most likely to occupy...

2024 GENERAL ELECTION President Biden leads former President Trump 49 - 44 percent in a hypothetical general election matchup among registered voters. This is essentially unchanged from June, when Biden had a slight lead over Trump, 48 - 44 percent.BIDEN Americans give President Biden a negative 38 - 54 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 41 - 54 percent job approval rating in June.Registered voters give him a negative 40 - 53 percent job approval rating compared to a negative 42 - 54 percent job approval rating in June.

Former President Trump tore into Quinnipiac and Fox News over a poll showing him trailing President Biden in a head-to-head matchup. “The Quinnipiac Poll FoxNews keeps showing on “TRUMP” vs. Biden is not just an old Poll, it is a BAD Poll,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday. “It under samples Republicans by 10 points, which means, instead of being down 4 points, I am up 6 points. Other Polls show me much higher than that.” Trump took issue with Fox’s broadcasting of the poll, saying that the network “will always attempt, as they did in 2016, to only...

President Biden would expand his 2020 margin of victory over former President Donald Trump if a rematch were held today, according to a new poll exclusively shared with The Post Wednesday. The WPA Intelligence survey of 1,571 registered voters found Biden, 80, leading 76-year-old Trump 47% to 40%. By comparison, Biden defeated Trump by 4.5 percentage points in the 2020 popular vote, while former President Barack Obama won re-election over Republican Mitt Romney by 3.9 percentage points in 2012. The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5% and was conducted between May 10 and 13,...

Could his 2024 presidential campaign be over before it even starts? At this stage in the 2024 GOP presidential primary cycle, the fact that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) hasn't officially declared his candidacy for his party's nomination feels more like an administrative afterthought than a sign of genuine electoral reluctance. With his reputation bolstered by a rare good showing during an otherwise disappointing GOP midterm election, DeSantis has spent the early part of 2023 crisscrossing the country with conspicuous stops in presidential primary hubs like Iowa and New Hampshire, hawking his "make America Florida" memoir, and weighing in on...

The venerable survey company found that 62% of registered Republicans said the year-old invasion by Moscow “represents a critical threat to US vital interests” — the highest proportion of any political affiliation, as just 58% of Democrats and 51% of independents agreed with the statement...The poll released Monday found just 9% of Republicans said the Russia-Ukraine war was “not an important threat at all” to American interests,...

Republican primary voters have high interest in Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as a potential 2024 presidential nominee and view him more favorably than they do former President Donald Trump, a new Wall Street Journal poll shows. In a hypothetical contest between the two, Mr. DeSantis beats Mr. Trump, 52% to 38%, among likely GOP primary voters contemplating a race in which the first nomination votes will be cast in just over a year. The poll found that Mr. DeSantis is both well-known and well-liked among Republicans who say they are likely to vote in a party primary or nominating contest,...

A new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll found that former President Donald Trump is the clear front-runner in a hypothetical 2024 Republican primary, leading Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by 18 points.The poll found that 46 percent of Republican voters would support Trump, compared to 28 percent who support DeSantis.Former Vice President Mike Pence, who many speculate will launch a presidential bid in 2024, received just seven percent support. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) came in fourth place in the poll with three percent, while Nikki Haley, Mike Pompeo, and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) each polled at two percent.The Harvard poll was taken...

The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 60% of Republicans don't think Trump's MAGA movement represents the majority of the party.

The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the Senate most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. Democrats currently have the lead in the race for the Senate. This is in part because in a few key races, Republicans have selected weak candidates, hurting their chances of taking the chamber in November. But as editor-in-chief Nate Silver writes, Republicans still have plenty of potential opportunities for pick-ups. The party’s best chance is currently in Georgia.

I was, am, and will remain bullish that DeSantis still stands a chance at the 2024 nomination, at least as long as you-know-who isn’t indicted. In the bizarro world of modern-day Republican morality, criminal charges against Trump really would seal the primaries for him.But I’m willing to admit it when I find evidence that undercuts my thesis. This new poll from New Hampshire isn’t great.After all, it was a poll of New Hampshire in June that set the commentariat on fire when it showed DeSantis leading Trump in a hypothetical primary there, 39/37. That survey was conducted by UNH whereas...

Dr. Mehmet Oz, who earned former President Donald Trump’s primary-race endorsement in April, is going down in flames according to a new GOP poll. Republican-affiliated Public Opinion Strategies reports that surgeon-turned-TV-host Dr. Oz trails Democrat John Fetterman by nearly 20 points!Trump gave Oz his “complete and total endorsement” before the wide-open GOP primary of six candidates, a move that probably sealed the deal with Pennsylvania Republicans. The doc won in a squeaker, barely beating out second-place finisher David McCormick, 31.2% to 31.1%. The former president praised Oz’s positions on abortion, crime, the Second Amendment, border security, the military, education, energy...

Republican candidates have some convincing to do among their base, as Democrats hold the early advantage in battleground Arizona. The latest Fox News Poll of Arizona registered voters finds incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly with an 8 percentage-point lead over Republican Blake Masters (50% to 42%) in the U.S. Senate race. That’s outside the poll’s margin of error. Kelly’s support is just shy of his 2020 vote share when he narrowly beat Republican Martha McSally (51.2% to 48.8%). Kelly’s lead comes from 95% support among Democrats. Masters fails to garner the same party loyalty, as only 82% of Republicans back...

Vice President Kamala Harris would defeat Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in a hypothetical 2024 presidential match-up, according to a new poll, but the race would be extremely close. A poll from the Harvard University Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) has found that Harris enjoys 39 support to the Republican governor's 37 percent in a theoretical contest. However, those numbers are very tight and the Harris poll found that a significant 23 percent of respondents were undecided between DeSantis and Harris. [cut] The poll showed Trump defeating both Biden and Harris in hypothetical 2024 contests. Trump had 43 percent support...