Hurricane Ivan Upgraded to Category 5 Hurricane

NOAA National Hurricane Center ^ | September 8, 2004 | NOAA National Hurricane Center

[bd476]

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HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004

...Dangerous Hurricane Ivan heading for the central Caribbean Sea...

A hurricane warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.

A hurricane watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for The Guarjira Peninsula of Columbia...and for the entire Northern Coast of Venezuela.

At 11 AM AST...1500z...the Government of Haiti has issued a Hurricane Watch for the entire Southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic Westward...including Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Southwestern coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo Westward to Pedernales.

Interests in Central and Western Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

At 11 AM AST...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near Latitude 12.7 North...Longitude 66.2 West or about 145 miles...235 Km...East-Northeast of Bonaire and about 795 miles...1280 km... EAST-Southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Ivan is moving toward the West-Northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr. This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Ivan should move North of Aruba... Bonaire...and Curacao later today. However...any deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring the center close to those islands.

Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale with maximum sustained winds near 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 2 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 KM… from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 KM.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 MB...28.20 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the center of ivan in the hurricane warning area.

Rainfall Amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan.

Repeating the 11 AM AST position...12.7 N... 66.2 W. Movement toward...West-Northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 MPH. Minimum central pressure... 955 MB.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor Products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 pm AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 pm AST.

Forecaster Avila

$$

[Dog Gone]

Wow, the central pressure has dropped to 938 mb in the eye, 27.7 inches according to the NHC. That's a big intensification from this morning.

[Dog Gone]

I wish I could post a collage of all the model runs and NHC forecasts for Frances. They were almost entirely wildly off until the last 36 hours before landfall.

I remember them.

I think we can conclude with some certainty that tomorrow night in Jamaica is going to be a nightmare. Beyond that, your guess is as good as mine.

[Cloud William]

Guess No one else has Mind Melded that passage from Hunt for Red October...lol

Actually, I recognized it right off. Fifty percent chance it'll turn north, eh?

[Gabz]

I really, really, really like the GFS and BAM models!!!!!!!!

[Gabz]

Some people need to lighten up. (not talking about you)

I really appreciate these threads. I truly hope the folks in the paths of these things are getting the same type of info and level of comfort I got last year during Isabel.

[Dog Gone]

I like the A98 model here. It insanely predicts landfall near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border.

The A98 model was a drunk diver during Frances, too.

[bd476]

You are right, Uncle Fud. I was just trying to add an optimistic note to all the predictions, a sort of narrow focus on the best possible scenario. :)

[Gabz]

LOL!! The A98 one is pretty cool - but I like the BAMM.....out to sea!!!!

[Gabz]

8PM Advisory psted on another thread.

[shield]

Thanks...for that input.

[GatorGirl]

Don't let them get you down.

I, for one, appreciate your insight and think you have contributed tremendously to these threads.

Even when you chastised me for calling Frances "cold" ;-) You should have seen me Sunday afternoon rooting through my "winter clothes" storage for a sweat shirt!

But I'm glad our power outage lasted only 13.5 hours, or I would have been nearly naked trying to get cool once the storm passed.

I have a vested interest in these storms, you see! GG

[shield]

Having said that, I was just chastised in a Freepmail for purporting or appearing to be an expert and not hedging my calls.

There are always those old sour pusses in every group---always wonder if they just got up on the wrong side of the bed or what? Keep up the good work on these hurricane threads. We appreciate you.;o)

[bd476]

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Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number  26a
Nws TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
8 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2004
 
...Extremely dangerous hurricane Ivan intensifies further while
Moving West-Northwestward across the Caribbean Sea...
 
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and
Curacao.
 
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the Guajira Peninsula of Columbia...and for the entire Northern
coast of Venezuela.
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the entire Southwest Peninsula of
Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic Westward...
including Port Au Prince.  A Hurricane Watch also remains in effect
for Jamaica.
 
A Tropical  Storm Watch remains in effect for the Southwestern coast
of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo Westward to
Pedernales.
 
Interests in central and Western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.
 
At 8 PM AST...0000z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
Latitude 13.4 North...Longitude  68.4 West or about 95 miles...150
KM...North-Northeast of Curacao and 640 miles...1030 KM...
East-Southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
 
Ivan has wobbled a little to the West during the past few hours...
but is moving generally toward the West-Northwest near 17 mph...28
KM/HR. On this track...the center of Ivan should move North of
Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao during the next few hours and then
will continue on route toward the area near Jamaica.
 
Ivan is an extremely dangerous Category 4 Hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.  Reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to 145 MPH...235 KM/hr...with higher gusts. 
Additional strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours. 
 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 KM...
from the center...and Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 KM.  Bonaire reported a wind gust of 41 MPH a few
hours ago.
 
The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter
was 938 MB...27.70 inches.
 
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the hurricane warning area.
 
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.
 
Repeating the 8 PM AST position...13.4 N... 68.4 W.  Movement
toward...West-Northwest near 17 MPH.  Maximum sustained
winds...145 MPH.  Minimum central pressure... 938 MB.
 
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
 
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST.
 
Forecaster Beven
 
 
$$

[bd476]

Thanks for posting this Strategerist. Anyway you look at it, none of Ivan projected paths are happy prospects, except the one where Ivan goes off into the Atlantic without hitting landfall again.

[bd476]

Updated: Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 26a Ping

In short, it doesn't look good for Jamaica right now.

Brief condensed version: "Repeating the 8 PM AST position...13.4 N... 68.4 W. Movement toward...West-Northwest near 17 MPH. Maximum sustained winds...145 MPH. Minimum central pressure... 938 MB."

[Dog Gone]

I guess "cold" is relative. The guy in the office next to me is constantly complaining about how cold it is in his office, and he wears a light windbreaker most of the time.

I have two thermometers in my office which confirm that it's 77 degrees. I think that's ridiculously hot for an office environment, and I find it uncomfortable.

Getting naked to cool off is not an option. ;-)

[MeekOneGOP]

bump! :^O

[lainie]

Those are some high winds and low millibars. Look out, Jamaica mon!

Lots of thunderstorm & fire activity in southern CA tonight, too.

[Dog Gone]

Since weather forecasting is nearly as much an art as a science, it's pretty easy for bias to factor into the forecast. And for psychological reasons that have to do with self-defensive mechanisms, I guess, I think forecasters tend to predict storm movement that threatens them personally in the absence of overriding evidence to the contrary.

Or perhaps it's because local TV meterologists want to drum up local ratings by scaring the audience. That's a pretty effective thing to do.

We don't need to scare anyone about Ivan. The two most recent storms in Florida have already done that. I think most people on the coast, and certainly all Floridians, are paying attention to the forecast path for Ivan. This storm isn't going to catch anyone by surprise like Charley did. People will pay attention to the margin of error.

[shield]

We don't need to scare anyone about Ivan.

I agree....I hate it with how the media outlets do such a job scaring people.

As far as Floridians, they are all freaking out over Ivan. I can understand why. But it's really just too early...Ivan is so far out there and still lots of variables to consider.

Living on the gulf coast all my life....I've learned to wait and watch!