[shield]

Having said that, I was just chastised in a Freepmail for purporting or appearing to be an expert and not hedging my calls.

There are always those old sour pusses in every group---always wonder if they just got up on the wrong side of the bed or what? Keep up the good work on these hurricane threads. We appreciate you.;o)

[Dog Gone]

Since weather forecasting is nearly as much an art as a science, it's pretty easy for bias to factor into the forecast. And for psychological reasons that have to do with self-defensive mechanisms, I guess, I think forecasters tend to predict storm movement that threatens them personally in the absence of overriding evidence to the contrary.

Or perhaps it's because local TV meterologists want to drum up local ratings by scaring the audience. That's a pretty effective thing to do.

We don't need to scare anyone about Ivan. The two most recent storms in Florida have already done that. I think most people on the coast, and certainly all Floridians, are paying attention to the forecast path for Ivan. This storm isn't going to catch anyone by surprise like Charley did. People will pay attention to the margin of error.

[bd476]

Agree with Shield, Doggone. Your input has been educated and well thought out. Thank you for all the insight and facts.