Posted on 09/08/2004 9:06:23 AM PDT by bd476
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004
...Dangerous Hurricane Ivan heading for the central Caribbean Sea...
A hurricane warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.
A hurricane watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for The Guarjira Peninsula of Columbia...and for the entire Northern Coast of Venezuela.
At 11 AM AST...1500z...the Government of Haiti has issued a Hurricane Watch for the entire Southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic Westward...including Port Au Prince.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Southwestern coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo Westward to Pedernales.
Interests in Central and Western Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.
At 11 AM AST...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near Latitude 12.7 North...Longitude 66.2 West or about 145 miles...235 Km...East-Northeast of Bonaire and about 795 miles...1280 km... EAST-Southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Ivan is moving toward the West-Northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr. This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Ivan should move North of Aruba... Bonaire...and Curacao later today. However...any deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring the center close to those islands.
Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale with maximum sustained winds near 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 2 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 KM… from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 KM.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 MB...28.20 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the center of ivan in the hurricane warning area.
Rainfall Amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 11 AM AST position...12.7 N... 66.2 W. Movement toward...West-Northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 MPH. Minimum central pressure... 955 MB.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor Products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 pm AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 pm AST.
Forecaster Avila
$$
OMG..............
Let's see, no work getting done, mosquitos on viagra, and dieters not weighing themselves.
Yup - I would imagine the anxiety levels of Floridians is way high up on the scale.
God keep you all.
And since wireless is also an option you can live out of town.
;-`)
Only have to worry about earthquakes, tornadoes, the occasional snow/ice storm and every couple of years it gets freezing cold for a week or so. ;-`)
And lots of family.
Bookmark
They mention the 12Z but not the 18Z runs and keep Ivan on exactly the same track as the 11AM.
If tonight or tomorrow morning the NHC forecast takes Ivan a big jump closer to Florida, and this is not produced by an 00Z model change....then I have to suggest the possibility that tonight they have softpedaled the forecast for us Floridians' sake.
And I do NOT make that comment lightly, I have defended the NHC against the amateur "loop-watchers" on several 'net boards for years.
If we had access to the GUNA or the FSU ensemble we'd know what they're really thinking and all of the above might be moot.
The temptation to just nail plywood everywhere and take a monthlong vacation in Colorado would be overwhelming.
Unfortunately, things like kids, jobs, and money probably precludes that option for most folks.
Hang in there.
I am personally tired of hurricane season. I know that Jacksonville was only supposed to get tropical storm winds, but it sure did seem worse than that. We got our power back early this morning. We have some large trees in my backyard that are holding each other up, but if Ivan comes anywhere near us they are going to fall. I pray that I can get them down before more wind comes.
I think (I may be wrong, possibly thinking CONU or something like that) we have access to GUNA, but I can't find an access point for the FSU model.
Found out today that the operations manager over our Orlando branch had a laurel oak take out the front of his house. Luckily, it took 6 hours for the house to completely give, so he had time to get the important stuff out of the affected rooms before they went.
There's no obvious steering mechanism for Ivan, and the forecasts are based entirely on the suggestion that the ridge of high pressure will weaken at some assumed rate. It doesn't take much either way to drastically affect the projected path of Ivan.
Based on current, measurable barometric pressures in the region we can be confident that Ivan will remain generally on the path it has taken today. But this may be a case where we have to rely more on real time information than in computer projections.
Oh man, that really bites. The fact that it could have been worse is a blessing, but that is a horrible thing to happen.
Is Yucatan pen. a possible hit? I've been seeing this in several places. If Ivan has NO steering regime, would it be turning North? As far as I can see...he stills appear to be moving WNW...or is it NW? I with you, it's still too early and too many variables still taking place.
Experts disagree. Best I can tell, as of tonight, most, but not all, of the experts think this will be an eastern GOM landfall and that Texas probably doesn't have to worry.
But since the NHC is waffling on their 72 hour forecasts, I don't think anyone in the US or Mexico should tune it out and quit paying attention.
Probably the understatement of these threads.
I wonder if my power will be turned on in time for Ivan to knock it out again.
I'm actually getting used to sleeping in a pool of sweat and getting ice from gubbmint handout sites. Maybe I'll just call FPL and cancel my account next month.
The FSU site is password-protected. Not public.
The GUNA is an average of the GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS, and GFS, all of which are public. I have a program that can average models on its own and create a GUNA track.
I've had conflicting info from meteorologists on whether the GUNA is a simple average or some complex weighted average; NHC always describes it as a simple average.
Having said that, I was just chastised in a Freepmail for purporting or appearing to be an expert and not hedging my calls. I'm not sure I plead guilty to that charge, but I'm far from an expert and I think I've made it clear that I don't know where this storm is going, nor does anyone else, including the National Hurricane Center.
Nevertheless, my opinion is only that, and I certainly urge everyone to defer to the NHC.
I look at this thread primarily evolving into a discussion of the computer models. How much faith anyone puts into those constantly changing predictions is their choice.
With that said, anytime I see the NHC state "weak steering currents" I think "all bets are off."
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.