Having said that, I was just chastised in a Freepmail for purporting or appearing to be an expert and not hedging my calls. I'm not sure I plead guilty to that charge, but I'm far from an expert and I think I've made it clear that I don't know where this storm is going, nor does anyone else, including the National Hurricane Center.
Nevertheless, my opinion is only that, and I certainly urge everyone to defer to the NHC.
I really, really, really like the GFS and BAM models!!!!!!!!