Posted on 09/08/2004 9:06:23 AM PDT by bd476
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004
...Dangerous Hurricane Ivan heading for the central Caribbean Sea...
A hurricane warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.
A hurricane watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for The Guarjira Peninsula of Columbia...and for the entire Northern Coast of Venezuela.
At 11 AM AST...1500z...the Government of Haiti has issued a Hurricane Watch for the entire Southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic Westward...including Port Au Prince.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Southwestern coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo Westward to Pedernales.
Interests in Central and Western Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.
At 11 AM AST...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near Latitude 12.7 North...Longitude 66.2 West or about 145 miles...235 Km...East-Northeast of Bonaire and about 795 miles...1280 km... EAST-Southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Ivan is moving toward the West-Northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr. This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Ivan should move North of Aruba... Bonaire...and Curacao later today. However...any deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring the center close to those islands.
Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale with maximum sustained winds near 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 2 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 KM… from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 KM.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 MB...28.20 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the center of ivan in the hurricane warning area.
Rainfall Amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 11 AM AST position...12.7 N... 66.2 W. Movement toward...West-Northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 MPH. Minimum central pressure... 955 MB.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor Products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 pm AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 pm AST.
Forecaster Avila
$$
Direct hit wasn't it? What was Crazy Ivan a Cat 4 at landfall in Grenada?
No, it was still Cat 3 when it hit Grenada but did reach Category 4 a few hours later.
"Probabilities for Guidance in Hurricane Protection Planning by Government and Disaster Officials
Hurricane Ivan Probabilities Number 25"
The chances for Hurricane Ivan to pass within 65 Nautical Miles of the following cities between now and Saturday 11 September 2004 at 8 AM are:
" MARATHON FL................8%
MIAMI FL...........................5%
W PALM BEACH FL............3%
KEY WEST FL.....................8%
MARCO ISLAND FL...........4%
FT MYERS FL....................3%
VENICE FL............,...........2% "
Praying for a miracle to save Florida!.......BUMP
The north side of the eyewall passed directly over the capital of Grenada. It was a strong Cat 3 at the time.....
Just heard that cities/buildings were flattened! in Grenada. No telling how many lives were lost.;o(
I just read that a Grenadian official said at least 24 dead on Grenada alone, I suspect there will be more.
On the current NHC track (which they admit is simply the midline of very disparate models) you would see those percentages go up to 10-15% or so as the storm gets nearer, then drop off.
If the percentage goes to the 25-30% level on a cat 4-5 storm, that's when it's time to change your shorts.
Most of the Cape Verde storms (which are the real Florida threats) form from mid July through early October. We are about halfway from that period too.
Ugh! (bump)
Anyway, the 12Z Global Models are in (Except for the ECMWF, which isn't out till 3PM):
12Z Canadian: Landfall in Pensacola, Florida
12Z GFDL: crosses Western Cuba, 5 day position is over the Eastern GOM heading N
12Z NOGAPS: Landfall PRECISELY at Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte, FL
12Z UKMET: Landfall PRECISELY at Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte
12Z GFS: misses Florida to the East, heads into Atlantic
12Z GUNA: (the highly accurate average of NOGAPS, UKMET, GFS, and GFDL) 5 day position just off SW Florida heading for Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte.
"...and you'd take that over 3 Hurricanes?"
Not just 'yes' but '1000 x yes'. Having lived through multiple hurricanes and several blizzards (although not stranded in a stalled car!) give me blizzards ANY day. They are much easier to plan for, you usually have plenty of warning, most houses are built with alternate heating sources and if electrical service is down(*very* rare) you can just move the freezer food outside!
(A little Wisconsin quip: nothing like 20 below to make you appreciate 20 above!)
I can relate to that LOL!
I think I'll hold off on telling my friends in Port Charlotte that model info.
Terrific, Marathon begins at MM 55 I am at MM 82. I don't like the odds.
I hope Howell's Tackle and Marine doesn't get hit. Nice people.
.
On the bright side, I may finally be able to buy some property in the Lower Keys for a more reasonable price.
I think the high winds of a hurricane is really scary & more so than a blizzard. I've been in a few blizzards & the only person on the road. I'm trying to get my hubby to move to Mo where at least I can have a dang basement (safe room).
The weather isn't as bad as Mich (too cold, icy) & Fl (too hot, hurricanes, bugs).
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.