[Strategerist]

Anyway, the 12Z Global Models are in (Except for the ECMWF, which isn't out till 3PM):

12Z Canadian: Landfall in Pensacola, Florida

12Z GFDL: crosses Western Cuba, 5 day position is over the Eastern GOM heading N

12Z NOGAPS: Landfall PRECISELY at Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte, FL

12Z UKMET: Landfall PRECISELY at Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte

12Z GFS: misses Florida to the East, heads into Atlantic

12Z GUNA: (the highly accurate average of NOGAPS, UKMET, GFS, and GFDL) 5 day position just off SW Florida heading for Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte.

[weatherFrEaK]

I think I'll hold off on telling my friends in Port Charlotte that model info.

[Dog Gone]

I'm sure you're well aware of this, but those long range model runs are notoriously prone to change in subsequent runs. This is especially true when there is a lack of strong steering elements which will obviously affect the storm's track.

It is truly hard to imagine the GFS outcome as being even remotely possible at this point.

Right now, I'd suggest the key thing to look at is where Ivan passes the island of Jamaica. If it's south of the island by very much, this storm could become a Mexican or Texas event. If it's north, then it has Cuba and Florida written all over it. And if it directly hits Jamaica, it might be seriously weakened by the mountains.

[Marak]

What site are you getting this information from?

[bd476]

Thanks for posting this Strategerist. Anyway you look at it, none of Ivan projected paths are happy prospects, except the one where Ivan goes off into the Atlantic without hitting landfall again.