Webb Telescope Raises Moon Impact Odds for “City-Killer” Asteroid 2024 YR4

Scitech Daily ^ | June 16, 2025 | NASA

[Red Badger]

PING!....................

[rktman]

Maybe it’ll just pass on by. Or the friction will raise erfs temp.

[Red Badger]

With my luck it’ll probably hit the Moon on the backside and I won’t get to see it live!..................

[Col Frank Slade]

Don’t forget the Killer Hornets.

[cgbg]

NASA is in a fanatical fight—not against aliens—but to save its budget.

Explain ongoing hysteria coming from them for the next few years.

[Red Badger]

If it hits the Moon it won’t be much of a problem for us, just a really cool fireworks show, and probably lots of meteorites in the skies for a few months or years as the debris gets sucked into the Earth’s gravity well.

If it does hit the Moon, I hope we actually get to see it happen, but my luck would be it hits the backside and we would have to rely on satellite video.............

[hal ogen]

The leftists are excited that this may hit the moon’s “backside”. This peaks their interest .

[_Jim]

re: “If it hits the Moon it won’t be much of a problem for us”

Um, what about Moon Base 1? (In the planning stages now.)

[rktman]

Last shuttle was in July 2011. Since then........

[cgbg]

Check out the “progress” of Artemis.

The dog has been eating their homework for many years.

[SunkenCiv]

Ow. :^) Thanks RB.

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• NASA warns asteroid now has 4% chance of striking the MOON in 2032 [04/07/2025]
• Earth Is Safe From Menacing Asteroid -- but Our Moon Might Take the Hit [04/02/2025]
• NASA's asteroid mission to Apophis: Key for Earth's defense [02/27/2025]
• Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 Strike Earth? NASA Revises Impact Probability [02/20/2025]
• Chance of 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 smashing into Earth rises yet again to 3.1%, NASA reports [02/18/2025]
• Odds of a Tunguska-Scale Impact in 2032 Just Doubled [02/12/2025]
• An asteroid big enough to destroy a city has a 1.9% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. [02/05/2025]
• 'City-killer' asteroid is hurtling by Earth -- and scientists are warning of its potential impact [02/02/2025]
• New Asteroid Tops NASA's Impact Risk Chart, 1.2% Chance of 2032 Collision [01/29/2025]

[Red Badger]

Knowing government bureaucrats and unions, it won’t be built in this century.............

[z3n]

I was thinking something similar.

Even though 4.3% isn’t a low chance in astronomical terms, it tells me that even if it doesn’t hit, it’s more like a glancing blow or a low or a nearly tangential angle of attack, which makes me wonder if it wouldn’t kick out a lot more debris than a more perpendicular hit because of how the energy gets directed.

Also, this isn’t likely possible due to the objects speed, but wouldn’t it be interesting if the moon could capture it in an orbit. IE: a satellite that has it’s own satellite.

[rktman]

Yup.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

It’s always something!

[Nateman]

The Earth is in blue and the moon is in yellow. If it does hit the moon Earth gets to see it hit!

[telescope115]

……Or it will be cloudy, or raining. I would suspect that astronomers the world over are salivating at the prospect of observing and filming such an impact if it does happen. I know I’m one of them.

At the very least, we might be able to observe and film one heck of a close encounter.🔭🔭🔭

[telescope115]

A fascinating thought!

[Robert A Cook PE]

Not yet discussed as a possibility: The small asteroid misses the Moon, and misses the Earth (based on current measurements.)

But its three-body orbital gravitation and inertia throws it into different spiraling path that does hit one or the other some years later. Or throws it off-course completely - unlike Shoemaker-Levy which was pulled into Jupiter - and it leaves the system entirely. (Unlike the loosely held Shoemaker Levy comet, this asteroid will near-certainly not break up into smaller pieces if it passes near the Moon or Earth. Too little a gravitational tide.)

There is no atmosphere on the Moon, so a near miss up there just changes the future orbits. Won’t break it up like the Tunguska explosion.