Posted on 04/19/2021 7:10:47 AM PDT by bert
What will be the results of a Pelosi/Biden government?
Many think there will be inflation. Milton Friedman taught us that “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it cannot occur without a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” The $2Trillion Covid relief plus the !5% minimum wage plus the forgiveness of college loans all pump money into the economy.
Those actions are the very definition of monetary phenomena. The Bureau of Economic Analysis keeps us informed on the inflation rate but fails in one respect. The inflation information provided leaves out food. So, in the era of Pelosi/Biden induced inflation, bert has developed a basket of 20 common food products and will track prices and compute the inflation rate on the basket total and each individual item at a one month interval.
The reason given for excluding food in the BEA inflation figure is because there are so many variables that effect prices that monetary inflation gets lost in the shuffle. So, there will be no attempt to correct for other variables.
The current news includes articles pointing to food price inflation all over the world. Some places are more alarming than others.
One we know that is already happening is China. China is in terrible food shape. Crop failure, massive flooding, swine disease and poor management of stock piles have forced China to import phenomenally large quantities of soy beans and corn.
Being bert and being conservative, I choose to ignore China and blame all the food price increases on Pelosi/Biden
The first monthly food inflation presentation is posted below. The Market Basket priced increased by 1.9%
Will it happen? As President Trump was fond of saying……..We’ll see
“...but I’ll be surprised if we don’t get Venezuela style financial crash.”
America is so stinkin’ wealthy - if there is a crash, those at the TOP are going to be fine, but the rest of us are certainly screwed.
I’m using your same strategy; adding additional staples to each grocery order. So far, so good. ‘Big Brother’ doesn’t seem to be catching on to my strategy. :)
I am totally happy with ordering groceries on-line for pick up from my local Walmart - and I only order house brand items. I am making a real effort to get back to ALL of my frugal habits. I admit, I’ve gotten a little LAZY now that I don’t have to account for every dime I spend. ;)
We’re raising a beef steer and probably will every year from now on and maybe a few hogs, too. After not having chickens for a few years, I’m really wanting to have chickens again. I want a milk cow, but Beau insists I that don’t, LOL!
My garden is all about PRODUCTION this year. The more I can can, the better. I feel comfortable with my jar and lid supplies, BUT it took some fancy footwork to get my stash back up to where it should be.
We’re in hunker-down mode. But, we pretty much always are. We’re a lot more self-sufficient than many others, but we can always do more. ;)
30 eggs for $3.19??????
Darn!!
Soon a dozen eggs will be 10 and Biden will sign an EO declaring one pound is 8 ounces making everything cheaper.
My garden is all about PRODUCTION this year. The more I can can, the better. I feel comfortable with my jar and lid supplies, BUT it took some fancy footwork to get my stash back up to where it should be.
We’re in hunker-down mode. But, we pretty much always are. We’re a lot more self-sufficient than many others, but we can always do more. ;)
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Same here. I’m planting more taters than usual and plotting how to grow quick crop next to slower growth crops etc. Since we don’t really have the space needed for cows or chickens, I am looking to buy a quarter or half beef from locals.
Canning tomatoes etc. from the freezer to make room for meats and fall’s produce. Root cellar will help with the storage - as my current shelves are full now with staples and canned stuff.
America is so stinkin’ wealthy - if there is a crash, those at the TOP are going to be fine, but the rest of us are certainly screwed.
like you say, buy a little each time you're out.
My garden is doing well so far.
The garlic is coming in beautifully. The onions I planted last fall for seed are doing great.
I am putting my potatoes in tomorrow, or as many as I can.
The tomatoes and peppers are started.
The onions and potatoes I harvested from last fall are looking a little beat on the outside, but when I cut into them, they are still juicy on the inside.
That tells me what poor quality produce the stores sell.
Love the dollar store! My crappy grocery store has a dollar aisle that I purchase items from.
Our temps here are moving down-freeze warning so not transplanting or planting anything new for a couple of days.
I held off on starting tomatoes or peppers - hubby has so many already started. I have a couple of new varieties to try, but I’m out of space till I can transplant what I have in the green house and in front of the patio door.
C O M I N G ❓❓❓❓
bert, interesting post—I think you have done this comparison before?
That said, I am not sure your basket is representative of a lot of families’ food basket.
I appreciate your efforts, and I think it would be even more informative to include some fresh fruits and vegetables, potatoes, more dairy (i.e., yogurt and cheese, etc.), and fish. Eh maybe some type of national brand cookie or sweet as well.
Regardless, thank you.
Have a nice rest of the day.
True of many items. Can’t buy a quart of peaches around here. They are 28.5 oz(or some such thing).
You might like Coleman three seasons gardening
I understand your thoughts.
When I started the study back around Christmas, I had about 50 items on the list. It became apparent that I was not able to deal with that many items on a regular basis. So I pared the list down to 20
My reasoning that may in fact be faulty, was to track common food items that will detect a trend. I selected both national brands and store brands. I was not seeking typical family food baskets so much as a diverse selection that would reflect food price change.
The concept of a “food basket” might actually be erroneous if interpreted as a weekly family grocery purchase. The “basket” is composed of the twenty items and the change in the total over the base line is the product of the exercise
Your post points out the true fact that I do not know what I am doing. I wanted to learn about real food inflation that I knew was in process but said by many to get worse. That is, to observe the hypothesis that there is going to be inflation and food will be swept up in the price increases.
Like I said...... We’ll see
I cannot freakin’ believe it! We have had snow all afternoon today. Our official average frost free date is April 16. Ha.
Actually I think we should call it Snain or Snow Showers. As hubby explained, the atmosphere higher up is much colder than closer to the ground. So a lot of the snow is melting as it gets to the ground. However we do still have spots with snow on the ground, but lots of liquid spots too.
We have freeze warnings and expected lows of 27 degrees tonight and tomorrow night. It’s getting mighty crowded in front of my patio doors from bringing all the plants inside.
It’s 50 degrees and falling in the green house, but the lettuce and beets seem to like it fine.
Micro wave gave up and quit last night. Hubby went to get a new one—wanted to get it before the freeze got here.
Our back door is also pretty crowded on cold noghts.
🤣
I read your post to my husband and he cracked up at the pulling the plants inand getting crowded part.
We’re going to be in the low 20’s tonight, too! I have everyone covered up and tucked in, in the unheated greenhouse. So far, so good.
Tonight SHOULD be the last of it - they’re saying 75 here by this weekend and our overnights look to be in the mid 40’s. Dang! I’ll have to shave my legs if I’m switching over to flip flops and Capri pants by the weekend, LOL! I’ve already been in flip-flops. I’m back to my UGG boots for schlepping around this week. ;)
Capri Pants and UGG Boots! I just may make that a, ‘thing.’
All things considered, this has been a very Spring-Like Spring in SW Wisconsin for a change. It’s either still snowing on us, or it goes straight to Hot & Humid as if ‘Spring’ doesn’t exist!
I’ll take a few more chilly nights! :)
We have the cold coming tomorrow noght.
I’ll have to tuck everyone in as the low is forecast to be 27.
Too nippy even for cold hardy plants in my book.
I’d rather not lose them.
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