Posted on 01/01/2023 6:02:12 AM PST by Godzilla
Threats surround us on a daily basis. Being able to recognize them and react are essential. This is ongoing commentary of those threats
If the people on the Exodus had done a hunger strike against Stalin -(an effing totalitarian) he would have let them all die then he would have sunk the ship. People need to understand tactics used against civilized people don't work against thugs and goons like those running Hamas. NO MORE warnings before a building is taken down. Let the peopel who live in "Palestine: know they're lives are on the line if they don't stand up to Iran and the goons running Hamas.
Israel update.
Hezbollah has promised the Lebanese govt not to get involved in the Hamas/Israel fight
All of a sudden Hamas begs for a ceasefire.
Don’t believe either of them
One word: Dresden.
Question: Why leave so much?
Better One Word: Glass
I posted the Hamas Charter on FR years ago. Based on the koran, it clearly shows we have a choice. It’s either them or us.
Almost 2,000 people marched on Sydney Opera House
Chants of ‘f*** the Jews’ and ‘Allahu Akbar’ rang out
Flares and other projectiles thrown at police barricade
Radical Muslims burnt the Star of David in front of cops
Counter-protester arrested for unfurling Israeli flag
‘Despicable’ scenes condemned across political spectrum
READ MORE: Police form ring of steel around the Sydney Opera House
Things have seemingly exploded on so many fronts, I’m having difficulty tracking them. Some items may get missed in the mess.
Globalism / Great Reset –
No doubt that the globalists are contemplating how to exploit the Hama/Israel war to their advantage.
Economy –
Various sectors of the economy are trying to assess the impacts of the current Hamas / Israeli war and trying to foresee impacts from any expansion of the fighting. Multiple markets are going to be in flux over the rest of the week.
***
UAW has expanded its strike action to include Mack Trucks, bringing the total number of striking members to over 30,000 across 22 states. This brings the total number of striking UAW members to more than 30,000 across 22 states.
OBSERVATION - Another disaster of biden’s making continues to grow.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Former CIA Director and retired Gen. Michael Hayden seemed to call for the death of Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) Monday night.
Quoting a Twitter post that asked, “Should Tommy Tuberville be removed from his committee? Yes or No?” Hayden wrote, “How about the human race?”
Hayden was one of the dishonest intelligence community veterans who signed a letter dismissing the Hunter Biden laptop story as Russian disinformation.
OBSERVATION - He was just caught echoing the general view of the left that opposition should be killed. As a former flag officer, in the “Before Years” he would be stripped of his rank and retirement benefits for such as statement. He has nothing to fear from this regime.
***
Pro-Israel rallies and demonstrations are growing across the US, increasing the possibility of clashes with Antifa support pro-Hamas groups.
Terrorism -
Multiple conservative commentators are warning that Hamas terrorists would target U.S. cities over the next 12 months, citing a wide variety of off the record sources.
OBSERVATION - With pretty good certainty Hamas and Hezbollah have sleeper cells in country, they have been uncovered in other countries, and we are not immune. However, I consider their insider ‘informants’ to be on the threshold of RUMINT given thats many other pieces of insider information haven’t panned out.
The only thing in my book that is granting any credibility to these warnings are the converging events that would lead to their activation in the next 14 months. 1) War with Israel ; 2) contentious presidential election cycle; 3) Increasingly weak, both mentally and physically president; and 4) potential economic recession / crash all make things favorable.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Ford CSG is nearing station off the coast of Israel.
USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier to enter Busan, S Korea, on Thursday
POLITICAL FRONT –
“Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and I spoke further on Hamas’ terrorist attacks on Israel,” Blinken said in a post on X, formerly Twitter. “I encouraged Türkiye’s advocacy for a cease-fire and release of all hostages held by Hamas immediately,” Blinken said in the since-deleted post.
OBSERVATION - the regime has been totally out to lunch on this foreign policy disaster. The now deleted Xweet essentially called on Israel to sit passively and accept the atrocity.
***
Ariane Tabatabai continues to serve as Chief of Staff to Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict Christopher Maier despite revelations of her ties to the Iranian government intelligence network the Iran Experts Initiative, and pressure from lawmakers for answers.
Combined with the scandal brewing with the Iranian infiltration of the Departments of State and Defense by suspended Iran envoy Robert Malley and still serving Chief of Staff Ariane Tabatabai, combined with the Biden administration’s admission they did not see this attack coming, could become a major scandal for President Biden and an early October surprise heading into 2024.
OBSERVATION - Part of a developing scandal where Iranian influence has gotten established in the govt via biden appointees and friends.
***
It’s official. RFK Jr. said Monday he will run for president as an independent and drop his Democratic primary bid, adding a wrinkle to a 2024 race
OBSERVATION - The MSM is trying to paint this as a negative for republicans in order to firewall democrats from crossing over - Kennedy’s most likely demographic support.
Biden / Harris Watch –
After 11 Americans were confirmed dead in Israel, Joe Biden called a lid a 11:32 AM yesterday. He will not be giving a briefing or making any official statements.
Biden did release a statement confirming the deaths
This is unreal. We’ve never had a President who was willing to show hoe much he doesn’t care about American lives. The world is at war and Americans are dying and the President of the United States is taking a nap!
***
Martha MacCallum asked John Kirby if Joe Biden still stands by his comments that “The only existential threat humanity faces even more frightening than a nuclear war is global warming going above 1.5 degrees in the next 20 — 10 years.”
Kirby: “Absolutely he does. Climate change is an existential threat...”
MacCallum: “More frightening than nuclear war?”
Kirby: Yes
OBSERVATION - Un freeking believable with the world going to heck and global warming is the top concern!!!!
Illegal Immigration –
Growing resentment continues to build pressure as pushback rises in blue cities/states over the flood of illegals.
China –
Riding on the outliers of the current chaos is thought that China may be looking to accelerate its plans to take control of Taiwan - especially if the US gets involved in a shooting war with Iran.
North/South Korea –
South Korea Joint Chiefs of Staff - “Prepare for the possibility of a surprise attack by North Korea using Hamas-style tactics”
North Korea news agency says ‘important report’ is imminent. So far this ‘important report’ hasn’t come out.
USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier to enter Busan on Thursday.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Putin at meeting with Iraqi PM says the conflict between Israel and Gaza shows a ‘failure’ in US Middle East policy. And adds: “The damage to the civilian population must be minimized and reduced to zero, and we call on all conflicting parties to do so.”
NUCLEAR THREATS –
The Russian State Duma asks a committee to study the possibility of revoking the ratification of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty within 10 days. More recent reports state that the Russian Foreign Ministry says it is preparing a bill to revoke the ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
NOTE - This is continuing evidence that Russia may once again begin nuclear testing.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 27 of 36 Russian Shahed drones overnight. Drones targeted areas in the Odessa region.
Bakhmut Axis -
Russian forces are reportedly attempting to push north of Adviivka in an attempt to cut off the town. Very little other information available. This could be the largest push by Russian forces on the front since the Ukraine offensive kicked off.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to advance in the Andriyivka region, south of Bakhmut.
OUTLOOK -
Much of the reporting out of Ukraine is swamped by reporting on the Israeli/Hamas war. So far it looks like status quo from recent reports.
ISRAEL –
Breaking this topic down into sections for clarity.
For everyone, here is Netanyahu’s address to Israel and the world -
“Israel is at war. We didn’t want this war. It was forced upon us in the most brutal and savage way. But though Israel didn’t start this war, Israel will finish it.”
“Once, the Jewish people were stateless.
Once, the Jewish people were defenseless.
No longer. “
“Hamas will understand that by attacking us, they have made a mistake of historic proportions. We will exact a price that will be remembered by them and Israel’s other enemies for decades to come. “
“The savage attacks that Hamas perpetrated against innocent Israelis are mindboggling: slaughtering families in their homes, massacring hundreds of young people at an outdoor festival, kidnapping scores of women, children and elderly, even Holocaust survivors. “
“Hamas terrorists bound, burned and executed children.
They are savages.
Hamas is ISIS.”
“And just as the forces of civilization united to defeat ISIS, the forces of civilization must support Israel in defeating Hamas.”
“I want to thank President Biden for his unequivocal support.
I want to thank leaders across the world who are standing with Israel today.
I want to thank the people and Congress of the United States of America. “
“In fighting Hamas, Israel is not only fighting for its own people.
It is fighting for every country that stands against barbarism.”
“Israel will win this war, and when Israel wins, the entire civilized world wins.”
Netanyahu has set the parameters for the future of the conflict in Gaza. There is no turning back as Israel finds itself in a growing fight for its very existence.
***
Interesting view -
“The Hamas attack on Israel meant the end of one of Iran’s major paramilitary assets. The Israeli military is one of the best in the world and did not expect Hamas to self-destruct like this, killing as many Israelis as it could before Hamas was gone and their base in Gaza severely damaged. Iran may have ordered this in an effort to disrupt the recent alliance between Israel and the Gulf oil states against Iran. The Hamas attack was a major intelligence failure for Israel and the Arab neighbors realize that this was an Iranian intelligence victory. If Iran could do this again it would most likely be used against one the Arab states that oppose the expansion of Iranian influence in the region. Expending Hamas to accomplish this attack on Israel reminds Arab states that it could happen to them. Iran is a common enemy or threat to Israel, Arabs and Turks.
https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iran/articles/20231010.aspx
GENERAL ——————————-
Counts of dead / wounded on both sides are high. Up to date numbers changing rapidly. Israel’s military found the bodies of roughly 1,500 Hamas militants near Gaza Strip, Israeli army says — AP
The bodies of over 100 Israeli civilians have been discovered in the settlement of Bari to the East of the Gaza Strip. That means at least 1/10 of the residents of Be’eri were killed. Pre-attack population there was a little over 1k people.
Israel has been hammering Gaza with airstrikes the likes of which not seen since 2008. In recent hours, the number of strikes seem to have dropped. Meanwhile, Hamas has been increasingly unable to fire any substantial numbers of rockets, and those they manage to get in the air are fewer and fewer. Additionally, Israeli army spokesman: states “The Israeli army is in full control of the Gaza Strip envelope, there were no infiltrations tonight” At this point, there are no ongoing incidents in the communities surrounding Gaza. However, it cannot be entirely ruled out that there are no terrorists present in the communities around Gaza, along the roads, and in agricultural areas.
Israeli government approves the Defense Minister’s request to recruit 360,000 soldiers from the reserve forces; up until now 300,000 were recruited
IDF are massing 173,000 troops including 8,000 elite commandos, along with 300 tanks and plenty of heavy weaponry on the border with Gaza in the town of Sderot.A further 360,000 reserve troops have been mobilized as well in the event Hezbollah and Iran become involved.
RUMINT. Russia gave Hamas weapons captured in Ukraine to discredit Kyiv.
Russia has transferred Western-made weapons captured in Ukraine to the extremist organization Hamas fighting against Israel, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) reported on Oct. 9.
Representative for Israel’s Homefront Command on Kan recommended Israeli’s store enough food and water in their bomb shelters to last at least 72 hours. They reminded Israeli’s of the essentials, first aid kit, flashlight, batteries, food, water, etc.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Analysts still anticipating ground assault soon, as little as in the next 24 hours. Moon conditions will be at near new moon (there is an annular solar eclipse on Oct 14), allowing Israel to take advantage of its night vision capabilities and advantage. As noted above, reports are that about 173,000 troops have been amassed along the border of Gaza and are awaiting the final “go” to execute the operation.
Israeli Defense Forces: In recent days, the Israeli army has been instructing the population inside of the Gaza Strip to distance themselves from designated areas. We emphasize that there is no official call by Israel for residents of the Gaza Strip to exit into Egypt
Hamas announces they will execute one hostage live on TV for every airstrike on Gaza. Fake videos of executions were posted to social media, but have been debunked. Hamas hasn’t carried out this threat to anyone’s open knowledge. Hamas says it won’t negotiate on the hostages it has taken from Israel until the “end of the battle”. Between 100 and 150 people are being held in Gaza, Israel estimates
Hamas announces that this Friday is a ‘day of general mobilization in the Arab and Islamic world in solidarity with our people and their resistance’.
Hamas also was begging for a cease fire yesterday. In some statements calling for one they claim that they have attained their ‘objectives’ as justification. Sorry FAFO time.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Sources say Palestinian factions in Lebanon are eager to open a second front against Israel if Hezbollah leads the charge. Hezbollah has stated that their red line is Israel putting boots on the ground in Gaza.
Action is increasing on the northern front. Yesterday, numerous infiltrations were attempted into Israel, all were intercepted. Initial attempts were believed to have been conducted by Hamas affiliated terror groups Hezbollah has allowed to operate in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has announced that 9 its members were killed as a result of Israeli bombing in the southern regions of Lebanon and that they will respond to this according to the “Rules of Deterrence.
12 rockets launched from Southern Lebanon with 11 being Intercepted by Iron Dome batteries. The 1 Rocket was deemed to be not a threat and was allowed to land in a open area near the border. Mortars were also fired from positions in southern Lebanon.
The IDF Homefront Command has ordered Israelis to stay away at least 4 km away from the Lebanese borders as a result of the border skirmishes.
The Lebanese Ministry of Education has announced that all schools in the south of the country will be closed tomorrow due to “Deteriorating Security Conditions.”
The Prime Minister of Lebanon stated the need to avoid confrontation on the border with Israel:
“Lebanon is trying to avoid confrontation on the border, so we are trying to prevent an escalation of tension. The support of fraternal Arab states in this matter is important for Beirut.”
Earlier, the acting Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic, Abdullah Bu Habib, told the Asharq al-Awsat newspaper that the Shiite Hezbollah party promised the government that it would not interfere in the conflict between the Palestinian resistance units and Israel.
Unconfirmed but highly probable. Sources close to Hezbollah are reporting that a full-mobilization of forces in Lebanon has been ordered with many said to be moving towards the border with Northern Israel.
NOTE - Hezbollah’s actions indicate they don’t care what the Lebanese PM says and the openly lied to him.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH———————————-
The United Arab Emirates has reportedly warned the Assad government in Syria not to enter the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Abu Dhabi has also warned Damascus not to allow any attacks against Israel from its soil
Pend confirmation. Hezbollah began mobilizing thousands of fighters on the border. Local journalist in Quneitra reports that Hezbollah’s Radwan Brigade is mobilizing along the Syrian border with Israel.
RUMINT. IDF sources say they will destroy Damascus, target Syrian President Assad if Hezbollah joins war; US warships will support Israel in war. Message relayed via France
WEST BANK——————————-
Mahmoud Abbas has flown out of country and calls for a UN intervention to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.
Consecutive and continuous armed clashes at the West Bank checkpoints. Serious clashes between Palestinian youths armed with Molotov cocktails and Israeli police forces in the Palestinian Issawiya neighborhood in East Jerusalem.
Confrontations erupted between young men and Israeli forces during a security operation in the Dheisheh camp in Bethlehem.
GLOBAL ——————————-
The Rafah crossing in southern Gaza, currently the only way out of the blockaded territory, has been operating this morning - but only for those who had their names listed before the recent fighting.
“Shortly after making the announcement that the European Union was going to terminate 700 million euro financing package for Palestine”, it had to halt plan to due to opposition from Luxembourg, Spain, Ireland, and Denmark.
Austria just froze its aid to Palestinians following the invasion on Israel
biden regime refuses to re-freeze the 6 Billion back to Iran.
In a joint statement, the US, France, Germany, Italy, and UK said they will help Israel ‘defend itself’
After Sydney decided to illuminate the Sydney Opera House in the colors of the Israeli flag, hundreds of Hamas supporters gathered to attack the Opera House with flares & burn Israeli flags
Following pro-Hamas demonstrations across the globe, pro-Israel demonstrations are taking their place.
FORECAST ————————-
The IDF has stated that they now consider the Gaza Strip a “War Zone.” This strongly indicates that the ground war will commence very soon, perhaps as short as within 24 hours.
Hezbollah is still expected to enter the conflict once Israel invades Gaza. Reports of mobilization suggests that full commitment may be days after the Israeli invasion, but that won’t stop them from launching massive missile barrages into Israel.
Lebanese govt is not thrilled with the potential involvement - seeing full well on what Israel has done to Gaza via airstrikes. Hezbollah has made its signature the placement of launchers, ammo dumps and other critical sites next to or in schools, hospitals and mosques. Israel has shown no restraint in hitting such targets this time around.
More of a wild card is Hezbollah attacks from Syria. Russia and Syria have kind of turned their heads over the buildup over the years. Attacks from Syria will draw Israeli counter strikes and could potentially catch Syrian and Russian troops in the blast zones.
Overall, I see some hesitancy by Hezbollah in getting involved. They will be forced into it but this doesn’t seem to be the time they desired.
The greatest question mark is Iran, will they become directly involved. That would cause the conflict to explode into a regional war and draw in other world militaries - the US being in the lead. This is the worst case scenario at this stage.
Iran –
See Israel above on the war.
Iraq -
Hadi Al Ameri, Secretary General of the Iran-backed Badr organization in Iraq threatens that if America intervenes in the Israeli/Gazan conflict, they’ll target all American positions [In Iraq].
OBSERVATION - Iranian backed militias would most definitely act against US forces and agents should Iran become actively engaged in the Hamas/Israeli war. Fact is that they will act even if the US DOESN’T intervene - the feast on weakness of the enemy.
Lebanon -
Govt trying to get Hezbollah to stay out of the conflict with Israel.
Saudi Arabia –
Saudi Arabia has informed the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, that it is “ending all negotiations” on normalizing relations with Israel, reports the Israeli newspaper The Jerusalem Post, echoed by the Saudi media outlet The Saudi Post, published in the United States.
OBSERVATION - Some pundits are indicting that this was Iran’s ultimate goal. Israel and SA were close to reaching an agreement sans Palestine. This is now effectively for the moment has been torpedoed.
Syria -
Unidentified warplanes just bombed an Iran-linked military convoy traveling between Iraq and Syria, near the cities of Al-Qa’im (Iraq) and Al-Bukamal (Syria).
OBSERVATION - Most likely Israel, indicating to Iran/Hezbollah that they are not so focused on Gaza that they cannot observe and react to other threats.
Antifa is pro Hamas? That explains why Democrats, the FBI, DOJ and CIA gave them a pass...
There were thousands of Palestinian supporters who marched in downtown Toronto on Sunday last. They had no city permit. The police cordoned off the streets , told thousands to disperse, and arrested four. The crowd saw the police resolve and left. Things were dicey for a time though.
Thousands showed up for a permitted assembly of support for Israel where Premier Ford and the Mayor of Toronto spoke. It was peaceful and there were hundreds of Israeli flags.
The problem is that Canada has a population of about 40 million. And we have about 1.8 million Muslims living in Canada, with onlly about 360 tousand Jews.( see: https://newcanadianmedia.ca/islam-now-second-most-popular-religion-in-canada/), Canada’s village idiot Justin Trudeau has never met a Muslim refugee he did not like.The Muslims of Cabada have not joined in a public condemnation of Hamas.
In addition there have been many thousands of Muslim persons of interest who have been detained at the US Southern border
in the last 2 years, but many tousands got away int the USA unapprehended...no way to trace them. They are likely at mosques across America , assembling their weapons of mass destructiion while the FBI ignores the threat and focuses on weaponozing itself agaihnst conservative America.
See:
Things could easily get violent in the USA and in Canadas larger cities with large cadres of Muslims there.
While the Ukraine war has and continues to play a serious role on the global stage, the Hamas/Israel war has exploded in an order of magnitude greater threat to the US as islamic hatred toward the US has lost its release valve and is in full blown rage once again. Combined with the almost instant global effects/impacts and the very imminent threat of a major regional conflict - beyond the contained Ukraine/Russian war.
Economy –
Interest rates on credit cards have risen to their highest levels in decades as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten its monetary policy in an attempt to curb decades-high inflation. The credit card rate has increased to an average of 20.72 percent. In comparison, the average credit card interest rate stood at 14.22 percent in 2018, according to NerdWallet. It was only 12.89 percent in 2017, the data show.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Palestinian Student Group Announces Pro-Hamas ‘Day of Resistance’ Rallies at US College Campuses on Thursday. I suspect these rallies will continue into the weekend. However, with recent revelations of the evil brutality of the terror attack by Hamas, gaining popular support may be difficult.
***
The Hamas/Israel war has generated new alliances. The official Chicago chapter of Black Lives Matter released a graphic of a Hamas paraglider with the text: “I stand with Palestine.” A unit of Hamas militants used paragliders and hang gliders to launch their armed massacre of civilians in southern Israel.
BLM, like Antifa, has long expressed support for Palestinian terrorism in the name of “de-colonialism” and fighting capitalism.
Decolonization is an euphemism for ethnic cleansing - the subtext is “You deserve to be shot or raped, and your children deserve to be beheaded.”
Other leftist groups joining pro-Hamas elements include the New Black Panthers, Young Communist League , Democratic Socialists of America and Party for Socialism and Liberation.
OBSERVATION - Key note on “de-colonialism”. This term has recently (in my notice anyway) come to the forefront and has some origins to the ethinc cleansing developing in South Africa targeting whites. It is also springing from CRT theories of recent. As noted above, it is being used to legitimize current racial violence in the US towards whites and asians. With the genocidal emphasis thrust forth by Hamas against the Jews, the application of this term here in the US is taking an even more sinister turn. Islamic radicals here in the US are renewing their calls for shriah law and death to opponents. BLM is picking up this theme as well against whites.
We are now facing a philosophically reinforced violent ‘alliance’ that could cause things to literally blow apart as the Hamas/Israel war continues and expands. As revealed in recent pro-Hamas marches, there are a lot of people here chanting “Death to America”.
***
Pro-Israeli rallies are growing across the US and could result in confrontations with Antifa supported pro-Hamas counter protestors. With the current level of high emotions, serious violence has the potential to break out.
Terrorism -
Growing fear of spreading Hamas terrorism is not being helped by this kind of announcements.
Hamas Leader Khalid Mashal calls on Muslims worldwide to rise up on Friday.
Benignly appealing as a call to rallies/protests, combined with all the other rhetoric from Hamas that it will place its boot on the necks of the western world, this could also be a ‘go’ signal to terror cells around the world.
***
The number of people on the Terrorist Watchlist caught trying to illegally enter the U.S. through the southern border has skyrocketed since Pres. Joe Biden took office, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) enforcement statistics reveal.
Last updated on September 15, CBP enforcement statistics show that Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 set a record for the number of people on the U.S. government’s terror watchlist caught trying to illegally enter the U.S., hitting 151 with two weeks to spare.
Based on the federal government’s fiscal year (October 1 through September 30), terror watchlist encounters have surged under Biden:
In FY 2017 (eight months under Trump, four months under Obama), there were only two terror watchlist encounters.
In FY 2023 (through Sept. 15), there were 151 terror watchlist encounters – an increase of 7,450% from FY 2017.
FY 2023’s count is more than 50 times higher than the three terror watchist encounters in Trump’s last full fiscal year (FY 2020).
FY 2023 is more than 24 times the combined number of terror watchlist encounters during the four fiscals years FY 2017 through FY 2020 (11).
FY 2023’s 151 terror watchlist encounters exceed the total of 122 for the previous six fiscal years (FY 2017-FY 2022) combined.
OBSERVATION - Not good, not good at all. biden is setting the US up for a major event, especially if things start going sideways in the Hamas / Israel war.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Ford CSG arrived on station off the coast of Israel after a very fast transit of the Med Sea.
***
American Special Operations Forces trained in hostage situations have arrived in Israel. A Pentagon official says the U.S. doesn’t rule out performing operations to liberate kidnapped Americans now held in Gaza
***
USS Dwight D Eisenhower Strike Group will depart from Norfolk in the coming week, in line with its standard deployment schedule Its schedule has plans to conduct exercises in the US EUCOM area in support of enhanced vigilance & ops with NATO allies, according to announcements by the DoD. This suggests that it is going to fill in for the USS Ford’s CSG in the central Med. It would be available for support to the USS Ford if necessary.
POLITICAL FRONT –
One unmistakable metric of how the biden regime has facilitated the attack on Israel -
Iran’s Crude Oil Export Revenue
2020 under Trump ‣ $7.9 billion
2022 under Biden ‣ $42.6 billion
***
Growing pressure from congress to re-freeze the $6 billion in assets the regime recently released as part of its hostage exchange with Iran.
***
Kari Lake formally announced her run for the AZ senate seat. She received Trumps immediate endorsement.
***
House Republicans are expected to hold closed-door meetings and an intra-conference vote to select their candidate for House Speaker vote as early as tomorrow. Leading candidates are Jordan and Scalise. GOP has said they will not bring a Speaker vote to the floor without all 218 members of their conference behind a candidate.
***
Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., called the cops on Michael Hayden Tuesday, accusing the former CIA chief of calling for his “politically motivated assassination.”
***
Congressional Democrats are fearful that their caucus could soon turn on Israel following the initial outpouring of support after Saturday’s Hamas terrorist attacks, Politico reported Tuesday. In March, a Gallup poll found that Democrats’ sentiment toward Israel had significantly changed, with more showing sympathy toward Palestinians by a margin of 49% to 38%. The survey indicated that Democrats’ sympathy toward Palestinians increased by 11 points over the previous year, while sympathy toward Israelis dropped.
Liberal jews in America make up a significant voting block of democrats in key areas. With everything else falling apart, they can ill afford to lose their support or enthusiasm in the 2024 election.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden slurred his words for 10 minutes and then ended his speech abruptly. This after waiting 3 days after the start of the Hamas/Israel war to make any comments. He was 90 minutes late for the press conference to boot. He refused to take any questions and left the room. Unbelievable.
Illegal Immigration –
See Terrorism above.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russia was defeated in its bid to regain a seat in the U.N.’s premiere human rights body by a significant majority in Tuesday’s election in the General Assembly, which voted last year to suspend Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Before the presidential elections in March next year, another mobilization on the territory of Russia is unlikely. The Kremlin will avoid unpopular decisions, and the recent mobilizations have been very unpopular according to British Intelligence sources.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine forces seized terrain west of Robotyne and Klischiyivka and Andriyivka, south of Bakhmut. At Klischiyivka in particular, Ukraine has solidly broken past the Russian’s latest defensive lines along the rail road and now threaten to physically cut off Hwy T-05-13, a critical supply route to Bakhmut.
Bubbling out of the flood of Hamas/Israel news, information has firmed up of one of the largest attacks Russia has been able to put together this year. Russia has been attempting to seize Avdiivka for most of this year and have had numerous catastrophes in the process where several whole brigades have been decimated in prior attacks. Over the past few days Russia has tried again by launching a pincer attack to isolate the town. There were reports posted on this fight, but reliability was sketchy until today (overnight) where more confirmation has been put out.
It appears that this attempt was another failure -bigley. This assessment is generally confirmed because Russian milbloggers are not crowing regarding any success, but are generally silent or critical of the losses. Considering the number of personnel and equipment that were involved, the results are simply disastrous for the enemy. The Russians hoped for a blitzkrieg, the losses in equipment were colossal. Even a Russian Su-25 was shot down over Avdiyivka. This fight is not over yet, but already Russia has lost a lot of potential momentum due to their heavy losses.
OUTLOOK -
No new information other than the old. Ukraine is expected to continue to chisel away on the Tokmok and Bakhumt fronts. Russia may try to increase their efforts to surround Avdiivka, but if the reports of substantial Russian losses are true, they likely do not have the forces available to press the attacks much further.
Europe / NATO General –
The Finnish government said in a statement Tuesday that it located the damaged area of the gas pipe and that it also detected a fault in a communication cable to Estonia. Officials scheduled a news conference for 5:30 p.m. Helsinki time. Finland suspects Russia has attacked its critical infrastructure.
Finland states that things are stable with LNG terminal in Inkoo as a back-up.
We are well prepared, while this is a serious one, it is not a severe incident.
The Russian survey vessel Sibiryakov was conducting “underwater activities” in by the Baltic conector pipeline throughout the summer. There’s now a hole in the pipeline.
News of the incident sent Natural Gas prices higher.
OBSERVATION - This sabotage conducted as the winter season is arriving and Russia’s ilk towards Finland and the Baltic. Russia is likely the culprit. I suspect that other Russian vessels operating near gas pipelines may recieve a lot more attention in the future.
ISRAEL –
Overnight Hamas managed several large missile launches towards Israel. Israel continued its methodical destruction of Hamas et al infrastructure in Gaza. Probable non-Hezbollah (with Hezbollah advisors) launched minimal attacks from Lebanon and Syria. Israel retaliated with mostly artillery and air strikes.
Netanyahu and Gantz agreed to form a national emergency government. Something not done since the 1973 Yon Kippor war.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken is flying to Israel in the coming days in a show of support for the country as it begins a major offensive in Gaza, says State Dept Spox
I don’t have time to pick this apart, but the following link does. In the Before Years, Israel was viewed as having a well armed citizenry - due to near constant threat of terror attacks. Over the years and successful interdiction methods - like the wall isolating Palestinian controlled areas from the rest of Israel, the need to be armed at all times dropped. Add to this the growth of a liberal view towards guns and strict gun control was instituted. It is estimated that only 2% of the population was armed when Hamas hit. Among those who were armed were a few Kibbutzes who quickly rallied against Hamas and managed to protect their residents. Unarmed kibbutzes and towns faced mass slaughter.
GENERAL ——————————-
900+ total deaths in Israel (updated Tuesday)
Palestinian Health - 1,055 dead and 5,148 injured
Foreign nationals killed/missing in Israel:
USA - 14 dead/none (?) missing NOTE: WH spox Sullivan: “We believe that there are 20 or more Americans who at this point are missing, but I want to underscore and stress that does not mean necessarily that there are 20 or more American hostages.”
Canada - 1 dead, 2 missing
UK - 10+ dead or missing
Argentina - 7 dead
France - 4 dead, 13 missing, including a 12-year-old boy
Thailand - 12 dead, 11 missing
Nepal - 10 dead
Germany - 1 dead/many missing
Russia - 1 dead
Italy - 10 abducted, including an infant
Cambodia - 1 dead
China - No deaths/injuries confirmed
Brazil - 3 injured
Paraguay - 2 dead/missing persons
Ukraine - 2 dead
Mexico - 2 kidnapped
Ireland - 1 injured
Tanzania - 2 injured
***
Israel from the start has targeted Hamas et al leadership and has nailed many over the past few day. Recent additions to the hit list include;
* Hamas Leader Abu Ahmad Zakaria Muammer
* Hamas’s Minister of Economy, Jawad Abu Shamala
* Founding leader of Hamas terror organization, Abdul Fattah Dukhan
***
One of the most controversial new reports from yesterday was findings that Hamas murdered & decapitated babies. The bodies of up to 40 dead babies were just found by Israeli forces, some with their heads cut off. Photos have also emerged of Jewish children burned alive by Hamas.
Outlets with direct eyewitnesses in the Kibbutz of Kfar Aza in the south of Israel include:
- Local Israeli news I24
- CBS
- CNN
- Times of London
- French news channel LCI
- UK outlet GB News
Many Hamas apologists immediately went into spin cycle to denounce the reports as propaganda and false. However, given the documented mutilations of Israeli (and other foreign nationals) and the islamic proclivity to behead its victims, the accusation is likely true. It shocks the western mind, but that doesn’t make it untrue.
***
Israel is still encountering small pockets of Hamas terrorists that went to ground when Israel launched their sweeps to regain territories seized by them.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Hamas was able to launch a number of missile barrages overnight, many targeting Sderot, and Ashkelon where a few rockets managed to get past Iron Dome and hit the city, causing casualties. Hamas et al have targeted the Erez crossing in N Gaza with missiles, possibly to try to deny access to Israeli forces.
Israeli army airstrikes continue across Gaza, mostly focused on northern Gaza, though some targeting shifting south as the night progressed.
The siege of Gaza continues with its internal power plants about to shut down due to lack of fuel. Israel cut off power and water yesterday. Ministry of Health in Gaza: All hospital beds, medicines and medical tools are on track to be exhausted.
Jordan and Egypt are coordinating to send aid convoys to Gaza, though Israel has directly threatened that any such convoys approaching Gaza would be bombed.
The World Health Organization calls for access to a humanitarian corridor into Gaza.
The US is working to establish so called “green lanes” to facilitate evacuation of non-combatants from Gaza. This effort may be thwarted by Cairo who reportedly is moving to prevent a mass exodus from Gaza to Sinai according to Reuters, citing two Egyptian security sources.
The Rafah crossing in the Gaza Strip, which is the only land exit to Egypt, has been bombed according to the Washington Post. Israel claims they were targeting an underground tunnel used for smuggling weapons.
So far, Hamas has failed to carry out its threat to start executing hostages and post the videos to the internet.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah claims responsibility for targeting an Israeli site with guided missiles. Skirmishes continued for most of yesterday with IDF targeting Hezbollah shooting positions and observation posts with artillery and air strikes. The IDF also struck Hezbollah hideouts in southern Lebanon
Lebanese News Agency is reporting Israeli bombardment renewed at a more violent pace on the vicinity of border towns, and the sounds of machine guns were heard. Highly subjective.
There is confusion concerning the status of UN peace keeping forces in Lebanon. UNIFIL forces reportedly increased their patrols on the Lebanese-Israeli border. Meanwhile, Hezbollah claims they have been ordered to go back to their bases.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH———————————-
IDF confirms the detection of several mortars fired towards Ramat Makashem area near Tiberias, Israel from Syria, some landed in open areas, no injuries, other fell short in Syria. Israeli army soldiers are responding with artillery and mortar shells toward the origin of the launching in Syria.
Israel also bombed Syrian army positions that were supporting Hama/Hezbollah sites that fired mortars at Israel.
WEST BANK——————————-
One barrage of rockets by Hamas from Gaza hit... Jenin as well as other Palestinian towns.
Fighting continues in west bank areas between Palestinians and Israeli police.
Palestinian militants opened fire on the Kiryat Arba settlement in the city of Hebron, south of the West Bank.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The United Arab Emirates has warned the Assad regime in Syria not to intervene in the war with Hamas, or to allow attacks from Syrian soil. UAE officials have sent their messages to high-level Syrian officials and briefed the Biden administration about their communication with the Syrians.
Turkish President Erdogan on Tuesday accused the United States of planning to “carry out massacres in Gaza” after Hamas terrorists ambushed Israel over the weekend.
If the Americans intervene directly, we are ready to participate in missile bombing and marches.
-Yemeni Houthi Leader
The Greek Navy has reportedly been placed into a heightened state of readiness with the Greek Hydra-Class Frigate “Psara” being deployed alongside the USS Gerald R. Ford and her strike group.
FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to prepare the battlefield for the ground invasion - an action that is imminent. That invasion could trigger greater Hezbollah action. Currently, action on the northern (Lebanon) and Syrian fronts is relatively minimal. Hezbollah seems to be content to try to draw Israeli ground forces in - but Israel is capably dealing with the threats via artillery and air strikes. This could all change very suddenly.
Global public opinion is split in support to hamas and israel. Recent revelations of atrocities against babies has undercut a lot of the ‘victim’ defense of Hamas.
Hamas, Hezbollah and most likely Iran are still stunned by Israel’s resolve. The PR and threats against hostages which have worked in the past to put brakes on Israeli retaliation for their efforts are not working. Even the vicim defense of Hamas is falling to the way side. With the activation of 360,000 reservists - and that number is growing fast as other volunteer and full jets arrive carrying reservists - Israel is set to do just what they said they would do - reshape Gaza for the next 50 years.
Hamas et al will still muster rocket barrages and IAF will continue to rubble Gaza. The dynamic of Israeli ground assault will be the game changer. Israel has had operational plans for such an invasion in the works for years, now the delay is to finalize based on current situation and execute.
Iran –
Khamenei repeatedly denying any direct Iranian role shows he is afraid of broader conflagration. This is in opposition to statements by Hamas and reporting by many news sources stating the opposite.
OBSERVATION - I still suspect that Iran was unprepared far the totality of Israel’s response to the Hamas terror attacks and are trying to put forth a propaganda fig leaf in the event Israel takes its operation home to Iran.
Iraq -
Reports of new threats from Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq threatening attacks on all U.S assets in the region if they support Israel and attack Gaza. Hezbollah and IRGC movements being closely monitored by coalition ISR platforms.
Turkey –
Referring to continued attacks in Syria, President of Turkey Erdoğan stated -
“We will continue the intense air operations we have been carrying out for a while, showing that we will destroy members of the terrorist organization at any time and anywhere.”
Venezuela -
Biden administration and the Venezuelan government are close to a deal that will ease oil and banking sanctions in exchange for guarantees of open elections.
OBSERVATION - There is likely a ‘catch’ in this agreement somewhere.
Black Swans
The Italian government is planning for a possible mass evacuation of tens of thousands of people who live around the Campi Flegrei supervolcano near Naples.
The new measures, which include a scheme to check on the strength of buildings in the area after months of repeated earthquakes, will be discussed at a cabinet meeting on Thursday, a government statement said.
Campi Flegrei (Phlegraean Fields) lies to the west of Naples and is dotted with towns and villages, including Pozzuoli, Agnano and Bacoli, which have a combined population of more than 500,000.
The caldera is dotted with 24 craters and is a much bigger volcano than the nearby Vesuvius, which destroyed the ancient Roman city of Pompeii in AD79.
It has been jolted by more than 1,100 earthquakes in the past month alone, including a 4.0 magnitude quake on Monday and a 4.2 last week – the strongest in the area for four decades.
Experts say the increased seismic activity is probably linked to a phenomenon known as bradyseism, when the earth rises or falls, depending on the cycle, caused by the filling or emptying of underground magma chambers.
There is not an imminent threat of an eruption, most volcanologists say, but with the ground currently rising by 1.5cm (0.59 inches) a month, there is concern about the impact on local buildings.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/05/italy-supervolcano-campi-flegrei-naples-earthquakes-evacuation-plans
I noted the activity here a while back. As the quakes have stepped up, so to has readiness and surveillance. Too early to say if there is an impending eruption and to what size. But it is active and has great potential to launch a big one. Such would impact the entire region and potentially affect global climate by cooling thru blockage of the sun by particles and gasses - worst case.
Running a little late this morning. Other important things to do.
Globalism / Great Reset –
According to its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicts global inflation to reach 6.9 percent this year, down from 8.7 percent in 2022. For 2024, the organization expects inflation to decline further to 5.8 percent, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than its July ’23 prediction, as core inflation remains stubbornly elevated.
“Near-term inflation expectations have risen and could contribute – along with tight labor markets – to core inflation pressures persisting and requiring higher policy rates than expected,” the IMF finds.
OBSERVATION - Economic destruction via inflation is one component of the globalists “economic reset” as it has such broad impacts. The IMF report IMHO is a smoke screen because it doesn’t factor in all the chaos that has erupted across the globe this year as well as the potential for more hits next year. Keeping people blissfully ignorant.
Economy –
Not good news - again. The Producer Price Index (PPI) measuring costs for finished goods that producers pay – increased more than economists expected yesterday, raising the chances that a second wave of inflation is coming. Higher gasoline prices reportedly accounted for the surge in the PPI. The U.S. Labor Department will release the more closely watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) today.
The core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3 percent, an acceleration from the prior month’s 0.2 percent increase.
Over the past 12 months, the PPI is up 2.2 percent. That’s a big jump from the 1.6 percent annual increase originally recorded in August. The August figure was revised up to show prices had increased two percent, indicating inflation was stronger than previously thought.
Economists had forecast a 1.7 percent annual increase.
OBSERVATION - These increases will likely put pressure on the Fed to at a minimum keep rates where they are or even potentially raise them again. Both actions will result in the erosion of the ability of the economy to eventually sustain its production - driving to a recession.
RELATED - Federal Reserve officials regarded the U.S. economy’s outlook as particularly uncertain last month, according to minutes released Wednesday, and said they would “proceed carefully” in deciding whether to further raise their benchmark interest rate. Such cautious views are generally seen as evidence that the Fed isn’t necessarily inclined to raise rates in the near future.
***
UAW expands its walkouts to include the Ford’s most profitable truck plant in Kentucky. The vehicles built there account for $25 billion a year in revenue, according to Ford. That amounts to one-sixth of the automaker’s global revenue, a Ford source said.
OBSERVATION - The economic ripples from the strike are growing as it expands.
***
In other strike news, talks have broken off between Hollywood actors and studios, killing any hopes that the strike by performers was coming to an end after nearly three months, as the writers strike recently did.
The studios announced that they had suspended contract negotiations late Wednesday night, saying the gap between the two sides was too great to make continuing worth it.
OBSERVATION - Yawn, and America doesn’t notice.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Tides of public opinion have apparently struck hard against protest in support of and endorsing Hamas’ terror tactics against Israel, leaving many progressives to question their affiliation and others scrambling to withdraw their endorsements.
BLM and the DSA have issued statement rejecting earlier endorsements of Hamas.
The radicalized college student are really getting hammered, with one epicenter being Harvard where earlier this week a collection of 30-some progressive groups signed a letter saying Israel was “entirely responsible” for Hamas’ attacks. Key executives and major corporations that hire these Harvard arrogant ignoramuses have put it out very clearly - they will black list any student that signed onto the letter. This has caused law students at Harvard are beginning to really sweat the fact that they might get fired from their first-year associate jobs.
A billboard truck drove through the streets surrounding Harvard’s campus Wednesday, digitally displaying the names and faces of students allegedly affiliated with student groups that signed onto a controversial statement on Hamas’ attack on Israel.
Much of this newly found soul searching by these Harvard students is linked to the doxxing of at least eight of the original 34 co-signing Harvard student groups that as of Wednesday afternoon withdrew their signatures from the statement — originally penned by the Harvard Undergraduate Palestine Solidarity Committee — that called Israel “entirely responsible” for the violence. In a later statement, the PSC wrote that it “staunchly opposes” violence against all civilians.
By Tuesday evening, at least four online sites had listed the personal information of students linked to clubs that had signed onto the statement, including full names, class years, past employment, social media profiles, photos, and hometowns.
Even the reprehensible Rep Ortiz has issued a condemnation of Hamas, swimming upstream of her other “squad” members, especially Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar, the two most prominent terrorist appeasers in Congress.
On the flip side, some of these elements have doubled down in some instances creating a potential rupture on the left between those who’ve realized they have been supporting ruthless, blood thirsty terrorists versus those with hardened, committed ideology to bring Hamas-esque retribution here to America and inflect on their political opponents.
Terrorism -
Hamas’ call for global support / jihad tomorrow is causing a lot of concerns and stress globally as well as here in the US. Called by one of the founding members of the Hamas Politburo, Khalid Mashal, for a worldwide uprising of Muslims in support of Hamas. In this he echos and expands upon Hamas’ leadership in the Gaza Strip’s call for a local uprising called the “Friday of Al-Aqsa flood” which is to include a takeover of the Al-Aqsa Mosque and surroundings in Jerusalem.
New York City was placed on “high alert” Tuesday by New York Mayor Eric Adams, who told law-abiding residents not to “underestimate” the threat from lone-wolf terrorists who have been radicalized by Hamas. Authorities in New York are paying “special attention” to communities of Hasidic Jews in the Big Apple while monitoring social media sites, he said.
The NYPD has ordered all cops to report in uniform starting Friday in anticipation of potential unrest stemming from a call by the former leader of Hamas to stage global demonstrations in support of Palestinians, The NY Post has learned.
“All uniformed members of the service in every rank, will perform duty in the uniform of the day and be prepared for deployment,” read a Wednesday night memo sent to all NYPD members.
Cops will not be granted excusals or shift changes and the order will remain in effect “until further notice,” according to the memo.
NYC has the largest population of Jews outside of Israel as well as a substantial pro-Hamas moslem community who made their support of the blood thirsty attacks on Israeli citizens well known this week.
OBSERVATION - Reaction from threats by islamic radicals like Hamas/Hezbollah have occurred a number of times since 9/11. Apart from some lone wolf episodes (covered by the MSM as ‘no motive found’) they really haven’t resulted in much. However, IMHO this situation is different from in the past. Iran has grown to become a substantial global terror threat - even greater than before -because biden has opened up the money flow again. Combined with the massive global migration into Europe and the illegals coming into the US, the probably of terror cells has grown almost exponentially.
Based on past history, the biggest targets will be jewish related - mostly synagogues - and other gatherings, such as pro-Israel demonstrations. A broader threat emerges after Israel begins its ground invasion of Gaza, with expansion of terror strikes on US infrastructure and other govt entities. See this threat grow even more if US is drawn into a shooting war with Iran.
TAKE NOTE - Under today’s conditions, should terror attacks spread from Israel to the West it will upend world politics in unpredictable ways. Hamas lost its moral high ground due to the atrocities it committed and any terror attacks could turn and make matters worse for them by galvanizing support for Israel.
I encourage everyone who can to get their CCW permit and carry regularly. Not only for this threat, but threats growing from crime in general.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Bataan Amphibious-Ready Group and Marines from the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit have also been reportedly re-deployed from training in Kuwait to the Arabian Sea.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise came out of the closed door session of the republican house caucus as the GOP’s next pick for speaker. His selection still hasn’t solved the Republican’s problem as there are currently enough holdouts to prevent him from getting the majority vote to take the Speakership. Jordan and Gaetz have endorsed him following the vote. 7 Republicans are opposing his selection - when combined with the block voting democrats -will result in another fight for the speakership.
OBSERSATION - Many view him as a continuation of the eGOP and a McCarthy 2.0, an image he has to clean up within the republican caucus to get the votes necessary.
***
A federal judge moved to formally dismiss the gun charge Hunter Biden was initially expected to avoid prosecution on before his plea deal collapsed under scrutiny.
U.S. District Judge Maryellen Noreika accepted the Justice Department’s motion to dismiss the original gun charge because President Joe Biden’s son is now facing a three-count indictment filed last month, according to the order, which was obtained by The Messenger.
OBSERVATION - Two tier justice system at work. But then we knew the fix was in a long time ago.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden confirms he has seen pictures of beheaded Israeli children. This sent the WH into a spin control frenzy, going as far to say he was lying and that he didn’t see any pictures, but was repeating news accounts.
Cyber attacks/warfare –
A hacker has claimed that he has stolen genetic data from millions of users on the DNA ancestry service 23andMe. The company originally stated that they had not been hacked, but they eventually requested that all their users change their passwords immediately. The hacker also claimed that he was willing to sell a million names of individuals with Ashkenazi (Eastern European Jews) lineage. If the hack actually happened, it means that Jewish people are now being identified at the individual level, including personal data and home addresses.
OBSERVATION - I received that email this morning. Laughably, I discontinued 23andMe a couple years ago because after two tries, they said they couldn’t recover any DNA from the samples I submitted. Alas, I’ve been outed as the android I am, LOL. But this does raise concerns over attacks on individuals here and abroad.
Illegal Immigration –
See Terrorism above.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russian mine takes out one of its own ships overnight - See Ukraine below.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 28 of 33 Shahed drones overnight. Targets mostly in the Odesa area, against shipping port facilities. One drone hit Romanian territory. Other drones were engaged over central Ukraine.
Now about three days into the Russian attempt to seize Avdiivka, and it hasn’t been going well for them. It has developed into one of the most massive attacks in months continues along the entire area - from Pervomaiske to Ocheretyane.
Initial Russian losses from the first couple days were heavy: 820 people, 34 tanks and 91 armored vehicles were eliminated. Over night the hits kept coming with an additional 13 artillery pieces, 15 tanks, and 33 IFV/APCs destroyed. Totaled up, this is equivalent to 3 Battalion Tactical Groups wiped out.
Based on the amount of footage of the fight, visible vehicle losses could become the most costly Russian assault since the beginning of the war. Those videos show Russian forces driving directly into Ukrainian minefields, blunting Russian attacks in mass. Survivors often then had to face zeroed in Ukrainian artillery as they tried to escape.
Russia was able to scrape up a lot of artillery support and ammo for this offensive attempt, but it appear it was poorly coordinated with the armor units involved.
Russian Territory –
The Russian patrol ship “Pavel Derzhavin” stuck a Russian mine near Sevastopol today. The explosion has taken the ship out of service after nearly sinking it.
OUTLOOK -
The Russian assault to capture Avdiivka is expected to continue, though analysts are assessing that it no longer has any where near the forces remaining necessary to accomplish the mission. The losses are staggering (Three BTG !!!) and in the near term virtually irreplaceable. Avdiivka, which is near the Russian occupied city of Donetsk, is one of the most heavily fortified sections of the front - having been attacked since 2014 by separatist elements in Donetsk and now Russians.
The losses at Avdiivka are going to ripple all along the fronts. Russia may be forced to laterally redistribute units to the area, weakening its ability to defend Bakhmut and Tokmok. Fighting on those two fronts continue to see Ukraine take more ground.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania’s Defense Ministry announces that another Russian drone struck its territory last night near Plauru, Romania.
OBSERVATION - This is something like the third or fourth Russian drone to have struck the country in the past month. i wonder just how much longer Romania is going to wait until it starts shooting down drones approaching its territory.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Middle East / N. Africa General -
Pakistan –
ISRAEL –
Propaganda and misinformation has pegged the needle over the past days. This is causing me to take even more time to weed through the junk to find credible information. On one item in particular - the reports of beheaded babies found by IDF teams in kibbutzes. Here, the govt of Israel made a smart move - it invited numerous news agencies to accompany the forces with the goal to provide a level of documentation that would be hard to refute. Bottom line - yes, Hamas beheaded babies as well as a host of other atrocities far beyond the initial reports. That level of documentation hasn’t stopped Hamas apologists from trying to refute the evidence, but the news has stripped Hamas of its traditional claim to ‘victim’ status it has relied on in the past to gain international sympathy once Israel retaliates.
Israeli officials refused calls from international aid organizations for a humanitarian break in the current siege of Gaza. They also said humanitarian assistance could resume only after Hamas released all hostages. Latest estimate is that at least 150 hostages were taken into Gaza by Hamas.
GENERAL ——————————-
Yesterday, a great deal of confusion in Northern Israel as a false alert for Hezbollah drones and/or paraglider was issued for the whole region.
Rocket attacks from Gaza continue but are decreasing in numbers and intensity while Israel continues to methodically destroy Hama et al infrastructure and take out key leaders.
Army forces continue to move to designated positions for the kick off of the ground war phase as the Israeli govt moves to a war time unified govt structure.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Gaza lost its power plant due to no more fuel. 3 desalination plants are set to shut down due to no power.
Reuters reports that Egypt has rejected the setting up of safe corridors for refugees fleeing the Gaza Strip. However, Egypt states that the Rafah border crossing is currently open, though with restrictions.
Egypt is now refusing to take Palestinian migrants and tightening border security.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Apart from the false alert yesterday, most of the activity consisted of small skirmishes and some rocket / mortar launches. Israel responded with artillery and air strikes.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH———————————-
IAF struck two airports in Syria overnight - See Syria below. These airports routinely used by Iran to air ship arms and supplies to its bases in Syria.
Also some continued scattered rocket/mortar fire into Israel.
NOTE - Israeli control of the Golan Heights is one of the major defensive feature it obtained from the 1973 war. Prior to that, Syrian forces were able to direct fire onto Israeli positions and settlement in the Jordan valley. They have lost this advantage and instead it has shifted to an Israeli advantage, giving them oversight of approaches to Israel from the Damascus region.
WEST BANK——————————-
Convoys of women and children are beginning to evacuate the west bank. They are being stopped at Jordanian checkpoints.
Reports indicate Jordanian armored vehicles have moved up to the Jordanian border with the West Bank. Jordanian intentions are unclear, but it appears it is a move to secure their border against any spillover effects from the current conflict. This spill over likely to be a flood of refugees.
The Lions’ Den—a WestBank-based Palestinian militia—mobilized supporters to hold marches and engage in small-arms clashes with Israeli security forces. Small arms clashes & marches took place in approximately 19 locations across the West Bank.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The State of Qatar threatened to stop gas supplies to the world if the bombing of Gaza does not stop. Would be an interesting move for Qatar considering its more than 60% of the country’s GDP.
FORECAST ————————-
BULF - Ground offensive still imminent. New moon is this Saturday and Israel may look to its superiority in night vision. Israel is still establishing the battlespace for its invasion of Gaza via air/artillery/naval gunfire. It is assessing the forces needed balanced off those needed to guard against Hezbollah and Iran intervention. It may seem slow in coming to some, but the Israeli govt and military want to make sure there are no other surprises before they commit to what they admit will be a multi month campaign.
Iran and Hezbollah still appear to be trying to avoid jumping into the fray. Again, when Israel kicks off the ground war, Hezbollah will most certainly attack - they have painted themselves into a corner and NOT attacking is no longer an option. Unlike Gaza, the Lebanese civilian population is not very favorable to them, blaming them for much of the economic chaos the country has been experiencing for the past several years. This dissatisfaction is a treasure trove of on the ground informants that Mossad can (and probably has) tapped into for rapid and accurate targeting of Hezbollah facilities.
A Hezbollah attack will be centered on massive rocket attacks. Any ground action will be largely defensive, as in 2008, trying to draw Israel into kill zones. Israel learned that lesson the hard way and likely won’t play, unless they set up battlefield conditions favorable to them. Actual invasion of Israel by Hezbollah would be limited to small infiltration teams designed to act much like Hamas, attacking relatively unprotected civilians in towns and villages near the border.
Iran –
Biden administration officials said they are leaving the door open to refreezing $6 billion in Iran oil revenue previously unfrozen as part of a prisoner swap deal in September after bipartisan calls to take the money back. Seeing the massive blowback on this obvious ransom for hostages they are trying to cover their rear ends. However, they are flapping in the breeze with their “not a single dollar” from this money has been spent claim and ignoring that money is fungible.
Lebanon -
Iran foreign minister will visit Lebanon in his regional tour to meet officials on the developments in Palestine. Iranian ambassador to Beirut confirmed Iranian FM’s visit to Lebanon
Syria -
Israeli bombed targets at the Damascus and Aleppo airports, taking them out of service. Eexplosions were heard in the Al-Waer neighborhood in the city of Homs.
OBSERVATION - Israel preparing the battlefield for the potential engagement by Iran and Hezbollah from Syria. They have hit ground convoys earlier this week, now looking to interdict and deny air resupply.
Tomorrow’s post may be abbreviated as I’ll be headed out of town early. Focused mainly on the Hamas/Israel war and secondary events related.
Economy –
The United Auto Workers (UAW) Union said 1,100 members in three states who work for General Dynamics voted by a 97% margin to authorize a strike when their contract ends on 22 October.
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Economic analysts are all over the board, gazing into the tea leaves trying to predict the impacts of the hamas/Israel and Ukraine/Russian wars on top of all the other economic issues globally. To me, this captures the unsettled and volatile condition of the global economy.
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Minnesota has been hit with a devastating bird flu outbreak as the state prepares to provide much of the nation with turkeys for Thanksgiving.
On Wednesday, officials announced Minnesota’s first major outbreak of bird flu in 2023. Minnesota is America’s largest producer of turkeys. State officials said Wednesday that a flock of 140,000 turkeys was killed at a Meeker County farm.
OBSERVATION - The US pulled out of an extended bird flu epidemic that deviated poultry farm for nearly two years. Winter is commonly flu season and hopefully officials can get this outbreak contained. However, looks like turkey prices will rise with these flu induced shortages.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
NOTE - This section and Terrorism are kind of blending at this hour as both are cross relating due to Pro-hamas activities supported by Antifa/BLM.
I have stated here that the left has been searching for a unifying cause to rally its forces and it clearly appears that the Hamas/Israeli war has handed that cause to them coalescing around “decolonization.” Considering that the hot portion of the war will likely last for potentially months, with the aftermath lasting for considerably longer, there will be plenty to offer for these violence prone factions. Further inflammatory factors will include potential economic stress from a recession, war in Ukraine and political turmoil from the 2024 election cycle.
Time will tell if this fuse is the one that lights the big firestorms in a manner that 2020 riots hit. However, now nearly 4 years down the road and a very energized moslem component has all the potential of causing riots and destruction that could exceed 2020.
See announced weekend protest locations under “Terrorism”
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Andy Ngo notes “The academics, activists, leftists, communists, anarchists, socialists, etc., who are currently praising the terrorist actions of Hamas in Israel are the same people who praised (or participated in) the domestic terrorist attacks in the U.S. during the 2020 BLM-Antifa riots.”
OBSERVATION - It is looking more and more like the leftists have found their issue to gather support for rioting over the next 14 months.
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As I noted yesterday, Black Lives Matter (BLM) and Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) organizations published statements supporting Palestinians, Hamas, and “decolonization,” which has put them at odds with the broader Democratic political coalition and pushed the center left to distance itself from these far left groups and movements. Some instances saw some BLM and DSA elements backpedal fiercely, while in other instances they doubled down. This could strip some support from the far left if things start to go sideways in the next few months.
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Noah’s Ark Bakery and Temple Beth Israel synagogue were smashed up in Fresno, Calif. on Oct. 10. A note left behind at the bakery stated: “All Jewish businesses will be targeted.” Orlando Javier Ramirez, a 30-year-old Latino, was arrested for the crime.
Terrorism -
Today is the “International day of Jihad” that has caused some to enter panic mode across the globe. Expect protests and opportunistic terrorist / violent activity are likely. It is prudent to exercise extra situation awareness, especially in locations where these pro-Hamas rallies have already been held or are scheduled to be held (see below). Lone wolf attacks are also a high possibility. For example one teacher in France was knifed by an arab overnight and killed. See also vandalism in Fresno CA above under CW2.
Current announced protests to be held -
Chicago, IL; Eugene, OR; Greensboro, NC; Miami, FL; New York, NY; Orlando, FL; Tampa, FL; Buffalo, NY; Washington D.C.; Atlanta, GA; Detroit, MI; Houston, TX; Jacksonville, FL; Los Angeles, CA; Nashville, TN; Orlando, FL; New Orleans, LA; Hollywood Beach, FL; Minneapolis, MN; Nashville, TN
US intel/security agencies say they - “do not at present have any specific & credible intelligence that would indicate any potential threat to the US stemming from Hamas terrorist attacks in Israel at this time”
More pro-Hamas rallies are expected at numerous university campuses across the nation. In some instances, pro-Hamas rallies off campus are being ‘secured’ by Antifa et al forces in black bloc.
IN RELATED, Israeli billionaire Idan Ofer quits Harvard board, blasts university’s president over Hamas student letter. Other major donors to Harvard are closing up their wallets in protest of Harvard’s endorsement of the pro-Hamas causes.
Wall Street CEO Marc Rowan is calling for the leaders of the University of Pennsylvania to resign and donors to close their checkbooks over an alleged failure to condemn antisemitism and hate.
Rowan, the CEO of private equity giant Apollo Global Management, wrote in an op-ed posted online Wednesday that UPenn failed to condemn an event held on campus last month that the university acknowledged included speakers with a history of making antisemitic remarks.
“Why is UPenn repeating tragic mistakes of the past? Words of hate and violence must be met with clear, reasoned condemnation, rooted in morality from those in positions of authority,” Rowan wrote.
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Across the country, local police departments are also preparing for a worst-case scenario.
The U.S. Capitol Police enhanced security in Washington following the call to action from Hamas leaders. While there are no specific threats to Congress, police said in a statement, “We are not taking any chances.”
New York City is home to 1.9 million of the country’s 7.5 million Jewish people. The city’s Democratic mayor, Eric Adams, a former New York Police Department officer himself, said all 36,000 NYPD officers are required to report in uniform Friday.
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The Southern Poverty Law Center is silent in the face of Hamas terror and so far has not added them to their terror lists.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Two B-1s arrived at RAF Fairford yesterday. From this base, they can reach targets in the Middle East relatively quickly, should the need arise.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Rep. Steve Scalise is withdrawing from the race for Speaker of the House after failing to gain support from enough republicans to win the majority in the house vote. Rep Jordan has emerged to be the new candidate and unconfirmed reports has enough republican support to over come democrat opposition.
Illegal Immigration –
To add insult to injury, the biden administration may soon be providing free medical services, food and even housing to the 5.7 million of illegals that they’ve allowed into the country. Folks, our homeless citizens are not getting that level of social hand outs.
MORE crap from the regime. The Biden administration released a statement Thursday warning financial institutions against using a person’s immigration status in credit applications.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) released a joint statement telling financial institutions that while it is not illegal to consider a person’s immigration status in the decision on whether to lend money, an overreliance on it could run afoul of the law, according to the statement. The statement implicates the Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA), which makes it illegal to discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex and more in considering a person’s credit application as the mechanism, even though the law does list citizenship status as a protected attribute.
Right, lets overload our banks will loans that will not be paid back by these illegals who will take the money and run.
China –
Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen and the Democratic People’s Party of Taiwan are leaning more towards independence stances from China, actions that are agitating Chinese leadership. Taiwan’s January election is seen as a critical milestone in the China / Taiwan standoff and if it goes against Chinese supported candidates, could drive it to begin aggressive measures - most likely at this time being a blockade of the island.
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Analysts are assessing that China will have three operational aircraft carrier by the end of the year. This would extend China’s capabilities to establish and maintain a blockade of the island.
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(Bloomberg) — China is scouring the globe for wheat, with annual imports on track to hit record levels, as buyers scoop up cheap supplies after heavy rains damaged the domestic crop.
OBSERVATION - China has had major harvests of grain crops damaged every year for the past 4 - 5 years. This is placing additional economic burden on the country to keep its 1 billion plus population fed.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
More Russian counterattacks, now in the Robotyne area. Having no success and a lot of losses - see below
More Russian drone attacks on ports in the Odesa region. Ukraine striking deep targets in the occupied southern regions and potential hunter/killer sea borne drone attacks in the Black Sea.
Tokmak Axis -.
Russia assault southwest of Robotyne was reportedly turned back with an estimated loss of 42 tanks and 44 APCs.
Velyka Novosilka Axis-
Loud explosions were reported in Mariupol and Melitopol.
Crimean front —
Smoke from Russian Buyan-class corvette seen after explosion near Sevastopol. No word yet as to the cause.
OUTLOOK -
The Russian counter attack in the Robotyne area appears to be facing the same mega defeat as the fight at Avdiivka - massive losses of tanks, armor and men (2 BTGs?). Interestingly, these offensive actions almost appear to have been timed to kick off with the Hamas attack on Israel Saturday. Losses in these two battles will severely harm any future attempts by Russia to try to seize the initiative once the fall rains hit and Ukraine is forced to slow down its actions.
Expected dogged Russian counterattacks to continue in those two areas.
The suspected Ukraine hit on another Russian ship (still pending verification) follows announcements that Ukraine has stepped up hunting Russian warships in the Black Sea west of Crimea.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight observations
* The Israeli is preparing for a ground entry into the Gaza Strip; they are primarily waiting for approval from the political level. The main object is the disarmament of the Gaza Strip.
* The Israeli town of Sderot and other communities around Gaza are to be evacuated ASAP.
* Rocket fire from Gaza has reduced, initial belief is that some are being kept in reserve due to the impending ground invasion. Since Saturday, 6000+ rockets are believed to have been fired into Israel.
* Small arms clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces increased slightly across the WestBank, as Palestinian militias try to stoke conflict there.
* Unidentified Iranian officials implicitly threatened to direct proxy attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria if the United States re-freezes Iranian financial assets abroad. Those assets, $6 Billion, were refrozen overnight.
GENERAL ——————————-
The PR campaigns from both sides have been almost as furious as the physical combat. Hamas is still trying to deflect criticism from the atrocities it committed last Saturday and replay the victim card. Seemingly internal bickering in various MSM groups over coverage that is breaking the normal depiction of Israel as being evil.
The spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council, John Kirby, says the number of Americans killed as a result of the Hamas attack has risen to 27. Another 14 Americans still remain unaccounted for.
Thousands of Israelis reservists continue to fly into country and prepare for war. Total number of reserves now appears to exceed 400,000.
Foreign ministers of Canada, Italy and Germany, as well as the US Secretary of Defense, are set to visit Israel today.
Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades leader in Gaza, Sami al-Abd al-Hassani, was eliminated in an IDF airstrike in al-Shati camp, the terror group confirms.
More information coming out regarding how Hamas succeeded in planning for Saturday’s attack. Evidence that they began planning a little over a year ago and coordinated much of their work face-to-face. They also reportedly used most of the workers permits to work in Israel from Gaza to get spies out of Gaza - explaining the detailed maps of Israeli force deployments and town/kibitzes. Israeli intelligence the night before the Hamas attack picked up signs of irregular activity among Hamas operatives in Gaza but top IDF and Shin Bet leaders decided not to put military forces on the borders of the enclave on high alert.
Hamas then hit a highly coordinated time line, with the rocket barrages (and accompanying explosions) providing cover for teams to breach the border fence as well as take out the plethora of border cameras and other monitoring devices and Israeli bases. Blinded, Israel made a wrong assumption that this was just a diversionary attack covering for the much more anticipated attack out of Lebanon by Hezbollah. Israel sent its rapid response special ops north, leaving villages around Gaza mostly unprotected. Israel had believed that Hamas would not conduct such an attack.
Hamas is now trying to distance itself from Gaza’s by tossing them under the bus. Number 2 in Hamas, Saleh al-Arouri, interviewed on Al-Jazeera, defensively claims Hamas didn’t mean to harm civilians. He blames GAZA CIVILIANS for following Hamas in and kidnapping Israelis. it has been documented that Gazans followed the Hamas assault elements, but their actions were that of looting. Hamas itself documented that they committed the atrocities, not others.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF has airdropped leaflets over the Northern Gaza telling residents that the actions of Hamas have forced them to launch a large-scale military operation in the region and that they must immediately evacuate towards the south.
Hamas immediately told residents that this is a false message and to remain in place, in some cases forcing residents to remain.
The Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades leader in Gaza was eliminated via an IDF airstrike.
IDF says it has carried out strikes against some 3,600 targets across the Gaza Strip, using more than 6,000 munitions. Over 6000 rockets have been launched at Israel since Saturday.
The Israeli Government has ordered the total evacuation of the City of Sderot. It has a population of over 30,000.
Overnight massive IAF strikes hit Gaza City and much of the northern portions of Gaza. This appears to be a highly coordinated strike. Observers note the largest of the campaign.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Deputy Secretary-General of Hezbollah: We contribute to the confrontation with Israel according to our vision, and we will take the action when the time comes.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH/IRAN———————————-
Israeli army spokesman: We will destroy more targets in Syria in the coming days
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said upon arrival to Beirut that more anti-Israeli fronts may be opened in the future.
“In the light of the continued aggression and military crimes [committed by Israel in the Gaza Strip], and the siege of Gaza, there is possibility of other fronts being opened,” the minister said in a comment to the Al Mayadeen television channel.
WEST BANK——————————-
Clashes in Jerusalem and protests in Ramallah against the Israeli attack on Gaza continue. Scattered reports of gunfights between Palestinians and security forces.
Unconfirmed reports that Israeli Defense Forces have conducted an overnight raid in the West Bank which led to the arrest of Speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council and Senior Hamas Leader, Aziz Dweik; Dweik is also seen by many Palestinians as the Interim-President of the Palestinian National Authority.
Jordanian Security are clashing with groups of citizens along the border as they try to get into the West Bank region. This comes after Hamas Al-Qassam called for a day of rage. Jordanian security using teargas at the crowds to disperse them.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Washington is holding talks to allow foreigners to leave Gaza through the Rafah crossing. Egypt still denying all exit by Gazans into Egypt. Egypt president El-Sisi says the people of Gaza must remain on their land.
US is setting up citizens in Israel for another Afghanistan debacle 2.0, say that it will evacuate citizens ONLY if they sign a promissory note to repay the govt.
Major riots erupted tonight in Paris. The riot police is clashing with Hamas supporters. France has outlawed pro-Hamas protests and has threatened to deport protestors.
Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian threatened Israel with coordinated response from multiple nations -
“The continuation of Israeli attacks against the Palestinians will be MET WITH A RESPONSE from the rest of the axes.”
“Today, the continuation of war crimes by (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu and Zionists against the civilians in Gaza, besieging, cutting off water and electricity, and denying entry of medicine and food, has created conditions where the Zionists are seeking a genocide of all people in Gaza.”
FORECAST ————————-
BULF - Ground offensive into Gaza is imminent. The starting gun could be the evacuation of Sderot. The next couple days is a new moon period. Warnings to evacuate N Gaza and evacuations of Israeli civilians from the region around Gaza are likely the final steps before invasion.
Analysts are trying to figure out the forces and locations for the Israeli ground assault. They are estimating that Israel may possibly use 4 divisions, a force of 150,000 to 300,000 troops, police, and security services MAY be employed. Based on Israeli instructions for gazans to leave the northern half of Gaza, attacks would commence on the northern and eastern border of Gaza. N Gaza has been the primary military stronghold for Hamas et al and has been the primary source of rockets launched into Israel.
Analysts are assessing that Hezbollah along with other allied terror groups, are massing its forces along Israel’s northern border and is expected to launch an assault timed to any Israeli ground operation into Gaza. Israel has and continues to deploy forces to the border region to counter any Hezbollah ground attack. These forces also serve to reinforce against incursions that may come from Syria. Hezbollah’s response to an invasion of Gaza will most likely come in the form of a massive rocket attack - it is believed that they possess around 160,000 rockets/missiles. Hezbollah’s ground forces are predominantly light, possessing no serious armor or tank forces. Light, off road vehicles and motorcycle units are highlighted, and could cause problems in some areas, but Israel’s armor/tank heavy units would be insurmountable.
Entry of Hezbollah may trigger other actions through out the middle east and world -worse case scenario made more likely by soft US foreign policy and leadership.
Iran –
United States and Qatar have agreed to block Iran’s access to $6-Billion in funding.. - Fox News
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Reports of Iranian T-72 tanks on the move in Khuzestan province, apparently headed towards the Western border.
OBSERVATION - This would headed towards the Iraqi border. Uncertain if this would to potentially be used to attack US/Alllied bases in N Iraq or pass through in route to Syria and eventually Israel.
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Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian is conducting a diplomatic tour to Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, possibly to coordinate politically with senior leaders in the Axis of Resistance.
Syria -
Israeli army spokesman: We will destroy more targets in Syria in the coming days. A likely reference to targeting Iranian/Hezbollah sites that would support an attack on Israel.
Abbreviated as I’m getting ready to take a day trip out of town.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Voters in New Zealand on Saturday ousted the party once led by Jacinda Ardern and elected the country’s most right-wing government in a generation, handing victory to a coalition of two conservative parties.
New Zealand’s next prime minister will be Christopher Luxon, a former chief executive of Air New Zealand, whose center-right National Party will lead a coalition with Act, a smaller libertarian party.
OBSERVATION - The previous govt brutally dealt with its citizens during the wuhan lock down and various other operations to implement WEF goals. Very tyrannical and this election seems to be pushback for its excesses.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The anti-Israeli protests were held in multiple locations across the US (and around the world) with limited violence reported. I would project that when the Israeli ground assault into Gaza kicks off in the next days, violence associated with follow-on protests will rise significantly .
Terrorism -
Nothing overt occurred in association with the day of jihad protests yesterday, though the threat remains elevated and could likely rise when the ground war in Gaza kicks off.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
CNN: US preps rapid reaction Marine unit for potential deployment toward Israel. The 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit, a rapid reaction force capable of conducting special operations, is making preparations in case it is ordered closer to Israel to bolster the US’ force posture there, say multiple US officials. Currently abruptly ceased training in the Persian Gulf area.
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The Deployment of Carrier Strike Group 2 (CSG-2) led by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) and consisting of 4 other surface ships including the Ticonderoga-Class Cruiser the USS Philippine Sea (CG-58); as well as 3 Arleigh Burke-Class Guided-Missile Destroyers - USS Laboon (DDG-58), USS Mason (DDG-87) and USS Gravely (DDG-107). CSG was supposed to depart from Naval Station Norfolk Thursday for the Mediterranean has been delayed in order to “Increase the readiness of the ships to peak combat effectiveness.”
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Pfizer had to revise it profit outlook down significantly because only 2% of the population has gotten the latest jab.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Vote on new House speaker scheduled for next week as Jordan works to secure the republican votes necessary to overcome democrat opposition.
North/South Korea –
Russia has received initial shipments of ammo from NK for use in Ukraine.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Kerch Bridge update –
Bridge reportedly reopened for full traffic following repairs.
Logistics –
Trains loaded with ammo have reportedly made it to Russia from N Korea.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
News is scarce - still overwhelmed by Hamas/Israel.
Russia continues to press the attack in the Avdiivka region, but is gaining little to no ground.
Kupiansk Front -
Russian army resumed offensive actions at Makiivka of Luhansk region and at Kupiansk axis.
OUTLOOK -
Russia appears to be desperately attempting to mount offensives in the east as a way to divert Ukranian resources away from the south. So far, Ukraine’s defenses have been up to the task and have inflicted severe Russian losses.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight observations
* Hamas continued to launch rockets and IAF continued to bomb targets in Gaza.
* Israel gave a 24 hour evacuation notice to residents in the Gaza City / northern Gaza region. Israel set up two safe evacuation routes. Hamas alleges that Israel hit one of the refugee convoys - but the action was likely by Hamas to instill fear and keep residents in place.
* Hamas working to force residents to say in place.
* Israel told a major hospital to evacuate in 2 hours, building houses Hamas command center.
* Israel conducted reconnaissance in force operations, entering Gaza yesterday.
More background on the Palestinian situation. -
The Palestinians were not Palestinians initially but local Arabs that refused to recognize Israeli independence. Most of these Arabs lived in the West Bank and Gaza. Neighboring Arab states refused to absorb the Palestinians and Jordan had to fight a brief war with their Palestinian refugees who had staged a rebellion against the Jordanians in 1970. The Palestinians were defeated and driven into Syria.
The UN sought to help by demanding that Israeli allow Palestinians who fled their homes during the end of the 1947-49 war Israelis fought to establish their independence. The displaced Arabs who refused to recognize the new state of Israeli also refused many other solutions that the UN and Israel agreed on and offered and instead lived in the West Bank and Gaza, which could have been an independents state but many of the Arabs insisted that Israeli surrender more territory and when Israeli refused the West Bank and Gaza Arabs, who rebranded themselves as Palestinians in the 1960s, demanded that Israeli be destroyed and replaced with a Palestinian state that contained no Jews. That has been the underlying goal of the Palestinians ever since. Their elected leaders are corrupt and tell the UN and donor nations that they just want peace with Israel while doing little to make that happen. The Palestinians have tried several different tactics to fight Israel, or at least kill Israelis and none have succeeded. Thus, like the four wars Arabs fought with Israel and lost, Palestinians were running out of ideas, until Hamas came up with a bold and bloody solution that is leading to more disappointment. The current Hamas attack has killed more Israeli civilians than in any war since the first one that ended in 1949 with the recognition of Israel as a nation. Many Arabs refuse to accept that and support groups like Hamas that keep trying. Many Arabs see what the problems and the solution is making peace with Israel and doing business with them. This is especially true since the prosperous Persian Gulf oil states are threatened by Iran, as are Israel and Arab states like Egypt that depend on the Gulf states for investments and financial assistance. Iran backs Hamas and has paid for all those rockets they launched at Israel as well as training and other support for Hamas members. There is a pattern to the Hamas offensive, and it has its roots in Iran and Arabs who are obsessed with destroying Israel and killing or driving all Jews out of the region. This is nothing new. The Arabs were big admirers of the Nazis during the 1930s and World War II. The Nazis wanted to kill all Jews everywhere. The Jews survived but so did the hate. Many people worldwide support Hamas, some without realizing what Hamas is and where it came from. Hamas will fail but its goals will persist.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htiw/articles/20231014.aspx
I’d add that Israel totally withdrew from Gaza in 2005 leaving substantial infrastructure in place that could have benefited the ‘Palestinians’ greatly. One in particular was world class hydroponics and greenhouse set ups that were the envy of the region and Europe. One of the first acts by these ‘Palestinians’ was to destroy these and other facilities.
GENERAL ——————————-
56 wanted persons, of which 25 are Hamas operatives, were arrested tonight in Yosh, in the Bekaa and in the valleys by the Israeli army and Shin Bet. Since the beginning of the war, approximately 280 wanted persons have been arrested, of which 157 are Hamas operatives
Egyptian Officials believe that are they are very close to finalizing a deal with the United States that will allow for the evacuation of foreign nationals still in Gaza into Egypt through border checkpoints, but that this will not include any Palestinians besides ones with Dual-Citizenship from another country.
Hamas’ militant wing “Al-Qassam” says 13 hostages, including foreign nationals held in the Gaza Strip, have been killed in the past 24 hours due to Israeli airstrikes.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF says infantry forces and tanks entered Gaza Strip territory today in “localized raids” (ie, recon in force) in order to clear the area of potential terrorists and locate missing Israelis.
“The IDF intends to increase (double) the attacks on Gaza City starting tomorrow (today) morning - based on past experience, this is a preliminary step towards a ground invasion.”
The IDF confirms that they have killed senior Hamas leader Merad Abu Merad in an airstrike on Gaza City. Merad was largely responsible for directing terrorists during the massacre on Saturday
In spite of Hamas’ threats, massive numbers of Gazans are reportedly heading south to escape the soon to hit Israeli ground assault.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Clashes between the Lebanese army and IDF were reported yesterday. Lebanese army has reportedly fired artillery towards Israel who, in response, fired back.
I’m surprised that Lebanese army units would get involved in this. When the first reports of engagement with Israeli forces, I thought it was just misreporting and the actual units were either Hamas affiliated or Hezbollah. The Lebanese govt has been very outspoken about wanting Hezbollah to stay out of the fight and that govt forces are engaging Israel is troubling.
WEST BANK——————————-
Significant clashes between Israeli Defense Forces, armed-Israeli citizens, and Palestinian rioters are currently taking place across the West Bank near the border with Jordan with at least 7 Palestinians said to have been killed so far. Elements of Hamas are claimed to have also joined the fighting.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Refrozen or not? Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman al-Thani said on Friday that his country is committed to fulfilling an agreement with Iran and the U.S. an $6 billion in Iranian funds parked in a Qatar bank.
The French Government has ordered the deployment of upwards of 7,000 soldiers across the country following mass Pro-Palestinian/Hamas demonstrations that have been taking place since last weekend and a stabbing attack yesterday in the north of the country which resulted in a teacher being stabbed to death by a Hamas supporter.
FORECAST ————————-
BULF - Ground offensive into Gaza is imminent.
Pro-Hamas propaganda reporting in an effort to force Israel to stop its air campaign and stall any ground attack has hit into high gear. This includes a probable Hamas false flag attack on a group of refugees headed south.
In spite of a fierce propaganda campaign, public opinion is still favoring Israel due to the hard hitting documentation of Hamas atrocities.
All evidence is pointing to a very large and soon ground invasion. The recon in force yesterday is a key precursor. Hamas-supporting media is trying to ‘warn’ Israel that they will face certain defeat if they invade. Israel has already acknowledged that the fight will be hard, but has the assets to successfully carry out the mission.
Still looks like the initial Israeli objective is the northern half of Gaza - that includes Gaza City. His has historically been were Hamas et al has concentrated its forces. The majority of the underground facilities and tunnels are in this region was well. The ultimate goal may well be to create a DMZ administrated by Israel to push Hamas south and away from general rocket range into Israel. Southern Gaza rockets would still be able to strike Israel, but those would be low population areas.
I hold little hope out for the hostages. Hamas will either kill them outright and place their bodies in the rubble of blown up buildings or hold on to them as human shields to be killed when Israel strikes.
Iran –
Still making threats against continued attacks in Gaza.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
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Globalism / Great Reset –
The annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank wrapped up on Saturday.
The new IMF outlook - signed off before the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas - sees global economic growth slowing from 3.5% last year to 3% this year and 2.9% next year, a 0.1% point downgrade from a previous 2024 estimate.
Global inflation is seen dropping from 6.9% this year to a still-high 5.8% next. Central bankers signaled readiness to end interest rate hikes if events allow, hopeful that inflation can be finally tamed without too hard a landing.
Most agreed it was too early to say how Middle East strife would affect a global economy which IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas described as “limping along, not sprinting”.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/14/key-takeaways-from-the-imf-world-bank-meetings.html
OBSERVATION - A mix of hopium and long term goals of the WEF in progressive implementation.
Economy –
A lot of mixed signals and analysis of last weeks data in reference to timing and extent of a 2024 recession.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Pro-hamas protests continued across the country at the usual locations. Violence has been limited.
Colleges like Harvard are suddenly being ripped at the pocket book level by sponsors withdrawing financial support over “academic” support of the Hamas atrocities. Reality is coming home fast for some of those students as they face being black listed for their support of Hamas.
Terrorism -
FBI Director Christopher Wray has announced that domestic threats have increased since Hamas’ first attack on Israel. On Saturday, Wray spoke at the International Association of Chiefs of Police conference in San Diego and acknowledged an increase in domestic threats due to “heightened environment” and called for an increase of vigilance.
“History has been witness to anti-Semitic and other forms of violent extremism for far too long,” he said. “Whether that be from foreign terrorist organizations, or those inspired by them, or domestic violent extremists motivated by their own racial animus, the targeting of a community because of their faith is completely unacceptable.”
OBSERVATION - Guess Catholics can worship without looking over their shoulders for a little while anyway.
On a more real level, with the war in Gaza set to go to the next level with an Israeli invasion of the Gaza City area, islamic threats towards the US and the rest of the world are gaining greater scrutiny. However, here in the US, the perverted FBI, CIA and DHS are probably poorly prepared for islamic related terror given the vast resources that have been shifted towards developing the tyrannical data base of biden/marxist democrat opposition. We are on our own folks.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
NOTE - The US has FOUR carrier CSGs out to sea! The last time four strike groups were underway was in early 2021.
The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) has finally departed from Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia following a delay of 1 Day. Eisenhower is going to the eastern Med after all. The DOD has confirmed that the US will deploy the USS Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group to the eastern Mediterranean to support the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group. It was originally announced that the Eisenhower would be patrolling other portions of the Med and on stand by should the Ford need assistance. At a hypothetical 26 knots would take 200 hours (over 8 days) for the Eisenhower to be on station with the Ford CSG.
This places the following naval force eventually in the region
USS Dwight D. Eisenhower
USS Philippine Sea (CG 58)
USS Gravely (DDG 107)
USS Mason (DDG 87)
USS Gerald R. Ford
USS Normandy (CG 60)
USS Thomas Hudner (DDG 116)
USS Ramage (DDG 61)
USS Carney (DDG 64)
USS Roosevelt (DDG-80)
NOTE - Not listed are the usual swarm of attack submarines that accompany these CSGs
RUMINT - Unconfirmed. U.S. Defense Officials have told the Israeli Government that U.S. Naval Ships in the eastern Mediterranean will be used to shoot down missiles that are launched by Hezbollah in Lebanon and that U.S. forces across the Middle East will target a number of Pro-Iranian Groups in Syria and Iraq if this escalates into a regional conflict.
OBSERVATION - Regarding the anti-missile operation - I don’t think the navy is in the optimum position to intercept missiles shot by Hezbollah into Israel - at an approximate 90 degrees to the rocket transjectory. Perhaps capable of intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles. To increase effectiveness, vessels would have to come dangerously close to being in the attack envelope of Hezbollah anti-ship missiles.
USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76), the Navy’s forward-deployed carrier, is also out on patrol, but currently in Busan, South Korea for a port visit. Reagan this week wrapped up drills with South Korea and Japan. Its operations are a deterrent to Chinese aggression in the region.
Meanwhile, USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) quietly left Naval Air Station North Island, Calif., on Thursday for a deployment to the Indo-Pacific, a Navy official confirmed to USNI News on Friday. Officials state that this was a ‘scheduled’ deployment. Its reported deployment area means that it can be shifted to the Arabian Sea / Persian Gulf region if the need arises. It can also be shifted to the east Pacific should China get too froggy, to assist the Reagan.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Biden administration has allocated $33.7 million from the American Rescue Plan to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), a Palestinian relief organization.
The funding, part of a larger $500 million allocation to the State Department’s Migration and Refugee Assistance program, has sparked concerns due to UNRWA’s alleged connections to Hamas, a designated terrorist organization, according to Fox News.
Critics have long accused UNRWA of failing to prevent aid from reaching Hamas terrorists. Reports indicate that UNRWA facilities have been used for Hamas activities and even for spreading propaganda within schools.
OBSERVATION - Slimy work around to fund Hamas. And this following the terror attack on Israel.
***
Eyes continued to be focused on the battle for house speakership. But the bumbling crowd of dems and reps decided an extended break was more important than getting this settled and getting the budget set up for the current FY - with the CR running out in less than 30 days.
***
Republicans flipped the Louisiana governor seat back to red overnight.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden had to be escorted off the stage by his wife after he got confused following a speech.
Illegal Immigration –
Lead by the dipstick who pulled the fire alarm a couple weeks ago, progressives in congress are calling for the US to take in many of the 1 million displaced gazans. Lets see, add that to millions of others with questionable loyalties and everything will be just hunky-dory.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Russia calling for an immediate cease fire in Gaza - stating that it is a war crime to target civilians in a combat zone - No this isn’t a Babylon Bee article.
Russian naval presence in the eastern Med is at a low, with many components stuck in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea regions. They also appear to be maintaining a lower profile in the face of the Hamas/Israeli fight.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine reportedly launched a drone swarm attack towards Kursk, Russia overnight. Russia claims to have shot down 20 out of 27 drones. The remaining drones apparently hit their targets in the Kursk region.
The Russian assault on Adviivka has hit its high-water mark and is slowing, Follow on OSINT analysis of Russia’s attack indicates Russian achieved some surprise and had some minor success north of the town, but that they lost a lot of men an equipment (as has been noted here) as they charged into the Ukrainian defensive lines, with Ukrainian minefields having a field day. As Adviivka is located a short distance north of Russian occupied Donetsk, it has been attacked since 2014 and has developed one of the strongest defensive positions of the entire Ukraine front.
Other significant activity of the last couple days was the Ukraine drone attack on the resort city Sochi where Vladimir Putin’s official Black Sea resort home is based. I saw the reports earlier this last week, but failed to make the link to putin’s resort home.
OUTLOOK -
Fighting will continue in the Adviivka area as well as the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts. Details continue to be washed out by the Hamas / Israel fight. I see little change in the status quo of the battle(s) in the near term.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight observations
Documents recovered from the bodies of dead Hamas terrorists detailed plans to raid Israeli schools and youth centers, kill as many people as possible, and transport hostages quickly into the Gaza Strip, according to a new report.
Overcast with some rain may have delayed the ground assault. Unconfirmed reports that Israel was to launch the ground offensive this weekend was delayed until clouds clear so that Israeli helicopters, jet fighters and drones can provide proper oversight and targeting/attacks in support of the ground ops. Weather forecasts for Gaza show a weather system passing through the area on Monday, clearing for most of the remainder of the week.
After limited charter flights, the US Embassy is now planning to evacuate American citizens in Israel on a ship leaving Haifa tomorrow for Cyprus
The propaganda war continues unabated, latest round has Hamas claiming IDF bombing refugee convoys while using dolls doctored up as dead children for photo shots. Don’t accept reports at face value. I’m sitting on a lot of reports because they are not being verified.
GENERAL ——————————-
Hamas produced a video that claims to have documented an Israeli strike on refugees fleeing N Gaza. However, video experts’ investigation reveals that, Hamas bombed people on the evacuation route in Gaza. The explosion was likely caused by a homemade Hamas IED, designed to falsely implicate Israel and intimidate those following instructions, to continue using them as human shields. In spite of this, Israeli designated escape routes are still packed with Gazans pressing to get to southern Gaza. According to the UN, over 400,000 have evacuated south even before the Israeli warning was given.
When they get there, they will face gates closed by Egypt.
Additionally, it is being documented that Hamas has erected barricades to block traffic on the Israeli designated evacuation routes.
US Special Ops forces are on the ground in Israel and in a way, mark a red flag for Hamas/Hezbollah in that if they are hit, the US may well hit back - hard.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF says last night it targeted the commander of Hamas’ Nukhba Force in the South Khan Younis Battalion, Bilal al-Kedra, who was responsible for the attacks on Nirim and Nir Oz last weekend. A commander for the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s northern rocket array was also eliminated, according to Israel.
Hamas still has some rocket capabilities left, firing several barrages yesterday. IDF quickly hit the launch points.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah continued to trade fire with Israeli forces, relying primarily on ATGMs and some mortar fire. Israel continues to respond with direct tank fire as well as artillery and air strikes.
The Israeli army is closing roads leading to towns near the border with Lebanon and declaring them a “closed military zone,”. Israel is telling residents to move out of the zone.
Hezbollah continues to target Mount Dov area. Israel maintains a key early warning radar system there that watches for any potential Iranian ballistic missiles.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH/IRAN———————————-
Israeli army spokesman announced the destruction of Aleppo Airport in response to the missile launched from Syria. This is the second hit on this airport in a week. The rocket launched from Syria was intercepted.
WEST BANK——————————-
Palestinian rioters continue to fight with police/military in the area. A large force of the Israeli army was deployed in the Dheisheh camp, coinciding with a massive arrest campaign in the West Bank. The army has arrested 330 Palestinians in the West Bank since the outbreak of confrontations.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Iran has sent a warning message to Israel through the UN saying that Iran will have to intervene if the IDF operation in Gaza continues
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian met with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Doha, Qatar today.
Egyptian strongman Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, reportedly speaking at a military graduation on Thursday, urged residents of Gaza to “remain on their land” rather than attempt to relocate away from the violence of the jihadist terror group Hamas and any potential retaliation from the Israeli government.
Sisi’s regime shut its border with Gaza on Tuesday after the Israeli government suggested that those seeking to flee Hamas should consider relocating to the fellow Muslim Arab country. While many Arabs and others in the Middle East enthusiastically support many of Hamas’s demands – primarily, the creation of a state of “Palestine” carved out of Israel – their governments have been hesitant to assist Palestinians in evacuating wartorn areas.
Asharq Al-Awsat cited unnamed Egyptian officials warning that any Israeli attempt to defend itself from Hamas and strike in Gaza could result in Egypt taking in Palestinian refugees, a situation they wished to avoid in the interest of “Egyptian sovereignty.”
OBSERVATION - Over the past several decades, these “Palestinians” have been expelled out of several arab countries because they were fomenting violence against their hosts, besides being parasites and non-productive squatters. There is UNIVERSAL rejection by the arab world to hosting refugees.
FORECAST ————————-
BULF - Ground offensive into Gaza is imminent.
The major component of the Israeli ground assault will be penetrating into and clearing the maze of tunnels Hamas has constructed beneath and around Gaza City. The surface can be cleared relatively easily, but the underground will be another matter altogether. Israeli airstrikes have targeted many key tunnel areas - many associated with rocket launches and command and control, but manual clearing is the only way to insure that Hamas groups don’t spring back up and attack Israeli rear areas.
Expect Hezbollah to continue to play a cat and mouse game using ATGMs to keep IDF on their toes and attempt to draw them into AT kill zones as they did in the 2008 Lebanon conflict. However, general feeling is that Hezbollah is not too thrilled in being forced into a war not of their choosing.
US direct involvement is still threatened should Hezbollah try to open up from the north. Also counter threats standing to Iran to keep out as well. This is the most dangerous component of the potential expansing of the war.
Iran –
Iran’s state broadcaster is urging Iranian citizens to sign up and express their preparedness for being enlisted and sent to the war against Israel. A similar campaign had been launched by the IRGC’s Fars News Agency.
See Israel above on new airstrike.
Economy –
Rite Aid, one of the largest drugstore chains in the U.S., filed for bankruptcy. NOTE - many economists are observing that there has been a significant increase in bankruptcies in 2023.
***
Analysis of various Hamas/Israel scenarios by Forward Observer outlines the dangers to the global economy. -
“An escalation of the Israel-Hamas War would increase oil prices, stock market volatility, and inflation, potentially dragging the world into recession, according to Bloomberg’s analysis of the scenarios.
A confined war in Gaza and lower Iranian crude oil production from Western sanctions would raise oil prices by $4 per barrel and have a slight effect on global inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
A multifront war in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria would increase oil prices by $8 per barrel, and the effect on global inflation and GDP would be twice as severe as a confined war.
A direct war between Israel and Iran and unrest in the wider Middle East would raise oil prices by $64 per barrel, stock markets would be extremely volatile, and the effects on inflation and GDP would trigger a global recession.”
OBSERVATION - At the current transjectory, the second scenario is building to be most likely. The last would doubtless include US attacks on Iran as well and though possible, it is the less likely, at least at this stage of the war.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Aftershocks from the Hamas terror attack on Israel continue to ripple with pro-Hamas groups doubling down of their support. Will the Israeli invasion of Gaza shift their actions to be more violent?
Terrorism -
Biden administration chose CAIR in May to “educate religious communities about steps they can take to protect their houses of worship from hate incidents” as part of the National Strategy to Combat Anti-Semitism.
At the time, critics slammed the White House for partnering with CAIR, which has a history of anti-Semitism and was linked to Hamas in a federal terrorism case in 2007.
CAIR cast blame for the attack squarely on Israel. On Monday, the group urged lawmakers to “address the root causes of Mideast violence,” which it attributed to the “Israeli government’s apartheid policies.”
Nihad Awad, the executive director of CAIR, referred to Israel as a “settler colonial Apartheid state” in the wake of the attacks, and decried the placement of the Israeli flag on the Eiffel Tower in Paris. Awad wrote on social media that “Israel=Russia,” and called on President Joe Biden to condemn Israel, but not the Hamas attackers. “You must condemn the occupier not the occupied,” Awad wrote.
OBSERVATION - In spite of biden’s rhetoric and some military actions showing support to Israel in its fight against Hamas, the deep, dark rotting core of biden and the powers that be in the swamp are strongly anti-semitic. This is a great example of the fox guarding the hen house.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
See NATO exercise below
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Evidence that the mRNA jab has facilitated “turbo” cancer development.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Rep Jordan still needs to firm up 15 republican votes as he pushes for a Tuesday vote in the house. Rumors that another republican may be nominated as well which would split the vote and cause the House to continue to be without a speaker. Further, some members of the Republican Conference “want to cut a deal” with House Democrats to elect a speaker after Jordan won the GOP nomination. These negotiations are rumored to be lead by a group of “Never Jordans” led by Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL). Further rumors are to gain democrat support for an alternative republican speaker in exchange for increased power in the House.
OBSERVATION - Republican death wishes all around. Going into an election year and some stuck up republicans with their underwear in a wedgie are willing to destroy the control of the House. Rogers is from a deep red district, his constituents need to grab him by the tie and get his attention fast. A pox on all of them.
Illegal Immigration –
Chicago community which voted overwhelmingly for Biden destroy the city council over their plan to house migrants in their “sanctuary city”
OBSERVATION - Cross file under CW2. The existing entitlement class rejecting a new, competitor to the govt teat.
North/South Korea –
Yonhap is reporting that a USAF B-52 will land at a South Korean air base later this week.
This will be the first time that a USAF B-52 has landed in South Korea since 2016. NK is expected to be very vociferous over the deployment.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Russia calling for an immediate cease fire in Gaza - stating that it is a war crime to target civilians in a combat zone - No this isn’t a Babylon Bee article.
Russia trying to maintain some naval vessels in Crimea as their ports in Russia are not capable of handling all the remains ships of the Black Sea fleet.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Relatively slow night for Ukraine ADA - Ukrainian air defense shot down 11 of 12 Shahed drones, 2 of 5 Kh-59 missiles launched by Russia overnight
Adviivka remains a hotly contested location, but the Russian capability to exploit any small gains is diminishing rapidly.
Developing reports that Ukraine has established a growing breakthrough of Russian defense lines along the rail line south of Bakhmut has sparked speculation that Russia is on the verge of pulling back to a forest belt and small river to the east. But I don’t expect any sudden breakthrough by Ukrainian forces.
Kupiansk Front -
OSINT sources reporting on Ukrainian sources indicated that the Russian military command is committing elements of all three WMD armies to offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Lyman line. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash stated that elements of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army, 6th CAA, and 20th CAA are conducting offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Lyman line. The presence of all three army-level formations subordinate to the WMD on this frontline indicates that Russian forces are conducting these offensive operations under a relatively cohesive and doctrinally sound command structure.
However, units involved are still very poorly trained and lacking adequate equipment, armor and tanks. This disadvantage has been on display in recent defeats by Ukrainian forces when Russia attempted to kick off a counter offensive this summer . The challenge will be to see how well this hold up during winter operations.
Russian Territory –
Ukraine drone bombed the Krasna Yaruga electrical substation in Belgorod Oblast. It is reported that this substation was connected to the Russian army facilities.
OUTLOOK -
Fighting will continue in the Adviivka area as well as the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts. Russia efforts on the Kupiansk Front may be increasing more in an effort to gain tactical positioning for a inferred winter offensive.
Poland –
The election results are in. Sadly, it looks like a globalist coalition has won in Poland. The new govt ran on shifting the country to a more WEF compliant state and may be dramatically shifting its policies on allowing ‘migrants’ into the nation as one key component.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO will launch its long-planned annual nuclear exercise “Steadfast Noon” on Monday (16 October 2023) with up to 60 aircraft taking part in training flights over southern Europe. The maneuvers will involve 13 Allied countries and a mix of aircraft types, including advanced fighter jets and U.S. B-52 bombers that will fly in from the United States. Conventional jets and surveillance and refueling aircraft also take part. A different NATO Ally hosts Steadfast Noon each year. Training flights will take place over Italy, Croatia and the Mediterranean Sea.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight observations
* Israel restored water to S Gaza - as an incentive to get gazans to relocate there
* Air strikes continue with intensity while Hamas rocket barrages become fewer and farther apart.
* Number of Americans killed in Hamas massacre in Israel rises to 30 with 13 other Americans still missing.
* IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari says the military has so far notified the families of 199 hostages that their loved ones are being held in the Gaza Strip.
* The Israeli Defense Force reports that over 6,000 Rockets have been launched from the Gaza Strip towards Northern, Central, and Southern Israel since the Surprise Attack by Hamas on October 7th.
GENERAL ——————————-
More and more raw footage of the Hamas massacres taken by Hamas terrorists are getting released onto social media. This is driving home the fact that Hamas was purposefully carrying out an operation to kill civilians in mass numbers. Hamas supporters are having trouble spinning the videos because the sources are Hamas terrorists.
The battlefield in the information / interwebs between Hamas and Israel continues to be fierce, but what seems evident to me is that Hamas’ tactics of victimhood used in the past are not gaining the traction they once did. I think this is largely in part because of the massive red lines they crossed in executing this attack and Israeli determination to eliminate them once and for all.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Force build up continues with evidence of more aggressive recon in force operations. Factors other than weather now seem to be causing the delay in ground ops - most likely pressure from the US as well as a likely final assessment of Hamas defensives before kicking off the invasion.
Refugees continue to pour south in spite of Hamas efforts to dissuade and block such movement. A general protected zone near the Rafah crossing with water an food is a factor to many. Others are refusing to go, desiring to die in place.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Not confirmed. US asks Israel to avoid preemptive strike on Hezbollah. Washington pledges to mobilize US aircraft if Hezbollah initiates war, according to some sources towards that end. Along the same lines, Israel’s emergency govt reportedly engaged in a debate on how quickly to expand the fight to Hezbollah, resulting in a decision not to preemptively open that front until operations are established in Gaza.
Joint Ministry of Defense and IDF announcement: The National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA) of the Ministry of Defense and the IDF are announcing the implementation of a plan to evacuate residents of northern Israel who live in the area up to 2 kilometers from the Lebanese border to state-funded guesthouses. The 28 communities involved in the evacuation.
Continued skirmishes overnight, with Hezbollah using ATGMs to harass Israeli forces with Israel responding with artillery and air/drone strikes on Hezbollah facilities and sites. Some reported attempts of Hezbollah infiltration that were intercepted by Israeli forces.
These attacks are designed by Hezbollah to obstruct the counterattack on Gaza.
Lebanese govt said yesterday that they cannot control what Hezbollah does in Lebanon and they do not speak for the Lebanese people.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Mixed signals coming out of Iran lately. On one hand they warned that if Israel’s “war crimes and genocide” are not stopped then the situation could spiral out of control with “far-reaching consequences.” and in a message sent via the U.N. - that it would have to respond if Israel carries out a ground offensive in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. OTOH, Iran appears to back down and announces they won’t be assisting Hamas as they say they will *not* be directly involved in the Israel-Hamas war. In an announcement to the United Nations in New York, Iran said “the resistance can defend themselves.” “Iran’s armed forces will not engage, provided that the Israeli apartheid does not dare to attack Iran, its interests, and nationals. The resistance front can defend itself.”
RUMINT. Syrian Officials have reportedly told the WSJ that fighters with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp and Iranian-proxy groups in the region have begun to move from their bases in Eastern Syria in and around the City of Deir ez-Zor towards the Israeli border near Damascus. I maintain this as RUMINT because these forces were being built up in eastern Syria in an effort to drive US / Allied forces out of Syria where they are based to keep ISIS in check. This is also contra to stated Iranian threats to US forces in the region should Israel invade Gaza or attack Iran.
WEST BANK——————————-
The army arrested 70 Palestinians from the West Bank and Jerusalem, last night and today at dawn. Fighting continues across portions of the West Bank between palistanians and Israeli police/military.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
For the first time since the beginning of the war: the Rafah crossing will be opened at 9:00. Reportedly, more than a hundred trucks waiting to move from Al-Arish to enter the Gaza Strip through the Rafah crossing.
Word still is that a very restricted exodus of people - mostly dual citizens.
FORECAST ————————-
BULF - Ground offensive into Gaza is imminent. I know I’ve been saying this for several days now with no major incursion. However, things like this cannot be rushed and Israel has little room for failure. All tactical indicators I’ve seen point to it happening at any moment. A major delay may be trying to get as many gazans out of the area as possible.
Iran –
See Israel above on mixed threats.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Saudi Arabia –
Apart from calls for cease fire, not much more out of SA. Their meeting with Iranian officials appear to have been a nothing burger except for the fact that they did meet. Most observers say they just talked past each other.
Syria -
With Syria and Russia talking about stopping Israeli attacks on ‘civilians’ interspersed with air strikes on Syrian civilians in Idlib and Aleppo . . . . .
p
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