Abbreviated as I’m getting ready to take a day trip out of town.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Voters in New Zealand on Saturday ousted the party once led by Jacinda Ardern and elected the country’s most right-wing government in a generation, handing victory to a coalition of two conservative parties.
New Zealand’s next prime minister will be Christopher Luxon, a former chief executive of Air New Zealand, whose center-right National Party will lead a coalition with Act, a smaller libertarian party.
OBSERVATION - The previous govt brutally dealt with its citizens during the wuhan lock down and various other operations to implement WEF goals. Very tyrannical and this election seems to be pushback for its excesses.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The anti-Israeli protests were held in multiple locations across the US (and around the world) with limited violence reported. I would project that when the Israeli ground assault into Gaza kicks off in the next days, violence associated with follow-on protests will rise significantly .
Terrorism -
Nothing overt occurred in association with the day of jihad protests yesterday, though the threat remains elevated and could likely rise when the ground war in Gaza kicks off.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
CNN: US preps rapid reaction Marine unit for potential deployment toward Israel. The 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit, a rapid reaction force capable of conducting special operations, is making preparations in case it is ordered closer to Israel to bolster the US’ force posture there, say multiple US officials. Currently abruptly ceased training in the Persian Gulf area.
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The Deployment of Carrier Strike Group 2 (CSG-2) led by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) and consisting of 4 other surface ships including the Ticonderoga-Class Cruiser the USS Philippine Sea (CG-58); as well as 3 Arleigh Burke-Class Guided-Missile Destroyers - USS Laboon (DDG-58), USS Mason (DDG-87) and USS Gravely (DDG-107). CSG was supposed to depart from Naval Station Norfolk Thursday for the Mediterranean has been delayed in order to “Increase the readiness of the ships to peak combat effectiveness.”
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Pfizer had to revise it profit outlook down significantly because only 2% of the population has gotten the latest jab.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Vote on new House speaker scheduled for next week as Jordan works to secure the republican votes necessary to overcome democrat opposition.
North/South Korea –
Russia has received initial shipments of ammo from NK for use in Ukraine.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Kerch Bridge update –
Bridge reportedly reopened for full traffic following repairs.
Logistics –
Trains loaded with ammo have reportedly made it to Russia from N Korea.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
News is scarce - still overwhelmed by Hamas/Israel.
Russia continues to press the attack in the Avdiivka region, but is gaining little to no ground.
Kupiansk Front -
Russian army resumed offensive actions at Makiivka of Luhansk region and at Kupiansk axis.
OUTLOOK -
Russia appears to be desperately attempting to mount offensives in the east as a way to divert Ukranian resources away from the south. So far, Ukraine’s defenses have been up to the task and have inflicted severe Russian losses.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight observations
* Hamas continued to launch rockets and IAF continued to bomb targets in Gaza.
* Israel gave a 24 hour evacuation notice to residents in the Gaza City / northern Gaza region. Israel set up two safe evacuation routes. Hamas alleges that Israel hit one of the refugee convoys - but the action was likely by Hamas to instill fear and keep residents in place.
* Hamas working to force residents to say in place.
* Israel told a major hospital to evacuate in 2 hours, building houses Hamas command center.
* Israel conducted reconnaissance in force operations, entering Gaza yesterday.
More background on the Palestinian situation. -
The Palestinians were not Palestinians initially but local Arabs that refused to recognize Israeli independence. Most of these Arabs lived in the West Bank and Gaza. Neighboring Arab states refused to absorb the Palestinians and Jordan had to fight a brief war with their Palestinian refugees who had staged a rebellion against the Jordanians in 1970. The Palestinians were defeated and driven into Syria.
The UN sought to help by demanding that Israeli allow Palestinians who fled their homes during the end of the 1947-49 war Israelis fought to establish their independence. The displaced Arabs who refused to recognize the new state of Israeli also refused many other solutions that the UN and Israel agreed on and offered and instead lived in the West Bank and Gaza, which could have been an independents state but many of the Arabs insisted that Israeli surrender more territory and when Israeli refused the West Bank and Gaza Arabs, who rebranded themselves as Palestinians in the 1960s, demanded that Israeli be destroyed and replaced with a Palestinian state that contained no Jews. That has been the underlying goal of the Palestinians ever since. Their elected leaders are corrupt and tell the UN and donor nations that they just want peace with Israel while doing little to make that happen. The Palestinians have tried several different tactics to fight Israel, or at least kill Israelis and none have succeeded. Thus, like the four wars Arabs fought with Israel and lost, Palestinians were running out of ideas, until Hamas came up with a bold and bloody solution that is leading to more disappointment. The current Hamas attack has killed more Israeli civilians than in any war since the first one that ended in 1949 with the recognition of Israel as a nation. Many Arabs refuse to accept that and support groups like Hamas that keep trying. Many Arabs see what the problems and the solution is making peace with Israel and doing business with them. This is especially true since the prosperous Persian Gulf oil states are threatened by Iran, as are Israel and Arab states like Egypt that depend on the Gulf states for investments and financial assistance. Iran backs Hamas and has paid for all those rockets they launched at Israel as well as training and other support for Hamas members. There is a pattern to the Hamas offensive, and it has its roots in Iran and Arabs who are obsessed with destroying Israel and killing or driving all Jews out of the region. This is nothing new. The Arabs were big admirers of the Nazis during the 1930s and World War II. The Nazis wanted to kill all Jews everywhere. The Jews survived but so did the hate. Many people worldwide support Hamas, some without realizing what Hamas is and where it came from. Hamas will fail but its goals will persist.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htiw/articles/20231014.aspx
I’d add that Israel totally withdrew from Gaza in 2005 leaving substantial infrastructure in place that could have benefited the ‘Palestinians’ greatly. One in particular was world class hydroponics and greenhouse set ups that were the envy of the region and Europe. One of the first acts by these ‘Palestinians’ was to destroy these and other facilities.
GENERAL ——————————-
56 wanted persons, of which 25 are Hamas operatives, were arrested tonight in Yosh, in the Bekaa and in the valleys by the Israeli army and Shin Bet. Since the beginning of the war, approximately 280 wanted persons have been arrested, of which 157 are Hamas operatives
Egyptian Officials believe that are they are very close to finalizing a deal with the United States that will allow for the evacuation of foreign nationals still in Gaza into Egypt through border checkpoints, but that this will not include any Palestinians besides ones with Dual-Citizenship from another country.
Hamas’ militant wing “Al-Qassam” says 13 hostages, including foreign nationals held in the Gaza Strip, have been killed in the past 24 hours due to Israeli airstrikes.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF says infantry forces and tanks entered Gaza Strip territory today in “localized raids” (ie, recon in force) in order to clear the area of potential terrorists and locate missing Israelis.
“The IDF intends to increase (double) the attacks on Gaza City starting tomorrow (today) morning - based on past experience, this is a preliminary step towards a ground invasion.”
The IDF confirms that they have killed senior Hamas leader Merad Abu Merad in an airstrike on Gaza City. Merad was largely responsible for directing terrorists during the massacre on Saturday
In spite of Hamas’ threats, massive numbers of Gazans are reportedly heading south to escape the soon to hit Israeli ground assault.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Clashes between the Lebanese army and IDF were reported yesterday. Lebanese army has reportedly fired artillery towards Israel who, in response, fired back.
I’m surprised that Lebanese army units would get involved in this. When the first reports of engagement with Israeli forces, I thought it was just misreporting and the actual units were either Hamas affiliated or Hezbollah. The Lebanese govt has been very outspoken about wanting Hezbollah to stay out of the fight and that govt forces are engaging Israel is troubling.
WEST BANK——————————-
Significant clashes between Israeli Defense Forces, armed-Israeli citizens, and Palestinian rioters are currently taking place across the West Bank near the border with Jordan with at least 7 Palestinians said to have been killed so far. Elements of Hamas are claimed to have also joined the fighting.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Refrozen or not? Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman al-Thani said on Friday that his country is committed to fulfilling an agreement with Iran and the U.S. an $6 billion in Iranian funds parked in a Qatar bank.
The French Government has ordered the deployment of upwards of 7,000 soldiers across the country following mass Pro-Palestinian/Hamas demonstrations that have been taking place since last weekend and a stabbing attack yesterday in the north of the country which resulted in a teacher being stabbed to death by a Hamas supporter.
FORECAST ————————-
BULF - Ground offensive into Gaza is imminent.
Pro-Hamas propaganda reporting in an effort to force Israel to stop its air campaign and stall any ground attack has hit into high gear. This includes a probable Hamas false flag attack on a group of refugees headed south.
In spite of a fierce propaganda campaign, public opinion is still favoring Israel due to the hard hitting documentation of Hamas atrocities.
All evidence is pointing to a very large and soon ground invasion. The recon in force yesterday is a key precursor. Hamas-supporting media is trying to ‘warn’ Israel that they will face certain defeat if they invade. Israel has already acknowledged that the fight will be hard, but has the assets to successfully carry out the mission.
Still looks like the initial Israeli objective is the northern half of Gaza - that includes Gaza City. His has historically been were Hamas et al has concentrated its forces. The majority of the underground facilities and tunnels are in this region was well. The ultimate goal may well be to create a DMZ administrated by Israel to push Hamas south and away from general rocket range into Israel. Southern Gaza rockets would still be able to strike Israel, but those would be low population areas.
I hold little hope out for the hostages. Hamas will either kill them outright and place their bodies in the rubble of blown up buildings or hold on to them as human shields to be killed when Israel strikes.
Iran –
Still making threats against continued attacks in Gaza.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
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Globalism / Great Reset –
The annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank wrapped up on Saturday.
The new IMF outlook - signed off before the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas - sees global economic growth slowing from 3.5% last year to 3% this year and 2.9% next year, a 0.1% point downgrade from a previous 2024 estimate.
Global inflation is seen dropping from 6.9% this year to a still-high 5.8% next. Central bankers signaled readiness to end interest rate hikes if events allow, hopeful that inflation can be finally tamed without too hard a landing.
Most agreed it was too early to say how Middle East strife would affect a global economy which IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas described as “limping along, not sprinting”.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/14/key-takeaways-from-the-imf-world-bank-meetings.html
OBSERVATION - A mix of hopium and long term goals of the WEF in progressive implementation.
Economy –
A lot of mixed signals and analysis of last weeks data in reference to timing and extent of a 2024 recession.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Pro-hamas protests continued across the country at the usual locations. Violence has been limited.
Colleges like Harvard are suddenly being ripped at the pocket book level by sponsors withdrawing financial support over “academic” support of the Hamas atrocities. Reality is coming home fast for some of those students as they face being black listed for their support of Hamas.
Terrorism -
FBI Director Christopher Wray has announced that domestic threats have increased since Hamas’ first attack on Israel. On Saturday, Wray spoke at the International Association of Chiefs of Police conference in San Diego and acknowledged an increase in domestic threats due to “heightened environment” and called for an increase of vigilance.
“History has been witness to anti-Semitic and other forms of violent extremism for far too long,” he said. “Whether that be from foreign terrorist organizations, or those inspired by them, or domestic violent extremists motivated by their own racial animus, the targeting of a community because of their faith is completely unacceptable.”
OBSERVATION - Guess Catholics can worship without looking over their shoulders for a little while anyway.
On a more real level, with the war in Gaza set to go to the next level with an Israeli invasion of the Gaza City area, islamic threats towards the US and the rest of the world are gaining greater scrutiny. However, here in the US, the perverted FBI, CIA and DHS are probably poorly prepared for islamic related terror given the vast resources that have been shifted towards developing the tyrannical data base of biden/marxist democrat opposition. We are on our own folks.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
NOTE - The US has FOUR carrier CSGs out to sea! The last time four strike groups were underway was in early 2021.
The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) has finally departed from Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia following a delay of 1 Day. Eisenhower is going to the eastern Med after all. The DOD has confirmed that the US will deploy the USS Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group to the eastern Mediterranean to support the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group. It was originally announced that the Eisenhower would be patrolling other portions of the Med and on stand by should the Ford need assistance. At a hypothetical 26 knots would take 200 hours (over 8 days) for the Eisenhower to be on station with the Ford CSG.
This places the following naval force eventually in the region
USS Dwight D. Eisenhower
USS Philippine Sea (CG 58)
USS Gravely (DDG 107)
USS Mason (DDG 87)
USS Gerald R. Ford
USS Normandy (CG 60)
USS Thomas Hudner (DDG 116)
USS Ramage (DDG 61)
USS Carney (DDG 64)
USS Roosevelt (DDG-80)
NOTE - Not listed are the usual swarm of attack submarines that accompany these CSGs
RUMINT - Unconfirmed. U.S. Defense Officials have told the Israeli Government that U.S. Naval Ships in the eastern Mediterranean will be used to shoot down missiles that are launched by Hezbollah in Lebanon and that U.S. forces across the Middle East will target a number of Pro-Iranian Groups in Syria and Iraq if this escalates into a regional conflict.
OBSERVATION - Regarding the anti-missile operation - I don’t think the navy is in the optimum position to intercept missiles shot by Hezbollah into Israel - at an approximate 90 degrees to the rocket transjectory. Perhaps capable of intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles. To increase effectiveness, vessels would have to come dangerously close to being in the attack envelope of Hezbollah anti-ship missiles.
USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76), the Navy’s forward-deployed carrier, is also out on patrol, but currently in Busan, South Korea for a port visit. Reagan this week wrapped up drills with South Korea and Japan. Its operations are a deterrent to Chinese aggression in the region.
Meanwhile, USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) quietly left Naval Air Station North Island, Calif., on Thursday for a deployment to the Indo-Pacific, a Navy official confirmed to USNI News on Friday. Officials state that this was a ‘scheduled’ deployment. Its reported deployment area means that it can be shifted to the Arabian Sea / Persian Gulf region if the need arises. It can also be shifted to the east Pacific should China get too froggy, to assist the Reagan.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Biden administration has allocated $33.7 million from the American Rescue Plan to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), a Palestinian relief organization.
The funding, part of a larger $500 million allocation to the State Department’s Migration and Refugee Assistance program, has sparked concerns due to UNRWA’s alleged connections to Hamas, a designated terrorist organization, according to Fox News.
Critics have long accused UNRWA of failing to prevent aid from reaching Hamas terrorists. Reports indicate that UNRWA facilities have been used for Hamas activities and even for spreading propaganda within schools.
OBSERVATION - Slimy work around to fund Hamas. And this following the terror attack on Israel.
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Eyes continued to be focused on the battle for house speakership. But the bumbling crowd of dems and reps decided an extended break was more important than getting this settled and getting the budget set up for the current FY - with the CR running out in less than 30 days.
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Republicans flipped the Louisiana governor seat back to red overnight.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden had to be escorted off the stage by his wife after he got confused following a speech.
Illegal Immigration –
Lead by the dipstick who pulled the fire alarm a couple weeks ago, progressives in congress are calling for the US to take in many of the 1 million displaced gazans. Lets see, add that to millions of others with questionable loyalties and everything will be just hunky-dory.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Russia calling for an immediate cease fire in Gaza - stating that it is a war crime to target civilians in a combat zone - No this isn’t a Babylon Bee article.
Russian naval presence in the eastern Med is at a low, with many components stuck in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea regions. They also appear to be maintaining a lower profile in the face of the Hamas/Israeli fight.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine reportedly launched a drone swarm attack towards Kursk, Russia overnight. Russia claims to have shot down 20 out of 27 drones. The remaining drones apparently hit their targets in the Kursk region.
The Russian assault on Adviivka has hit its high-water mark and is slowing, Follow on OSINT analysis of Russia’s attack indicates Russian achieved some surprise and had some minor success north of the town, but that they lost a lot of men an equipment (as has been noted here) as they charged into the Ukrainian defensive lines, with Ukrainian minefields having a field day. As Adviivka is located a short distance north of Russian occupied Donetsk, it has been attacked since 2014 and has developed one of the strongest defensive positions of the entire Ukraine front.
Other significant activity of the last couple days was the Ukraine drone attack on the resort city Sochi where Vladimir Putin’s official Black Sea resort home is based. I saw the reports earlier this last week, but failed to make the link to putin’s resort home.
OUTLOOK -
Fighting will continue in the Adviivka area as well as the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts. Details continue to be washed out by the Hamas / Israel fight. I see little change in the status quo of the battle(s) in the near term.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight observations
Documents recovered from the bodies of dead Hamas terrorists detailed plans to raid Israeli schools and youth centers, kill as many people as possible, and transport hostages quickly into the Gaza Strip, according to a new report.
Overcast with some rain may have delayed the ground assault. Unconfirmed reports that Israel was to launch the ground offensive this weekend was delayed until clouds clear so that Israeli helicopters, jet fighters and drones can provide proper oversight and targeting/attacks in support of the ground ops. Weather forecasts for Gaza show a weather system passing through the area on Monday, clearing for most of the remainder of the week.
After limited charter flights, the US Embassy is now planning to evacuate American citizens in Israel on a ship leaving Haifa tomorrow for Cyprus
The propaganda war continues unabated, latest round has Hamas claiming IDF bombing refugee convoys while using dolls doctored up as dead children for photo shots. Don’t accept reports at face value. I’m sitting on a lot of reports because they are not being verified.
GENERAL ——————————-
Hamas produced a video that claims to have documented an Israeli strike on refugees fleeing N Gaza. However, video experts’ investigation reveals that, Hamas bombed people on the evacuation route in Gaza. The explosion was likely caused by a homemade Hamas IED, designed to falsely implicate Israel and intimidate those following instructions, to continue using them as human shields. In spite of this, Israeli designated escape routes are still packed with Gazans pressing to get to southern Gaza. According to the UN, over 400,000 have evacuated south even before the Israeli warning was given.
When they get there, they will face gates closed by Egypt.
Additionally, it is being documented that Hamas has erected barricades to block traffic on the Israeli designated evacuation routes.
US Special Ops forces are on the ground in Israel and in a way, mark a red flag for Hamas/Hezbollah in that if they are hit, the US may well hit back - hard.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF says last night it targeted the commander of Hamas’ Nukhba Force in the South Khan Younis Battalion, Bilal al-Kedra, who was responsible for the attacks on Nirim and Nir Oz last weekend. A commander for the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s northern rocket array was also eliminated, according to Israel.
Hamas still has some rocket capabilities left, firing several barrages yesterday. IDF quickly hit the launch points.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah continued to trade fire with Israeli forces, relying primarily on ATGMs and some mortar fire. Israel continues to respond with direct tank fire as well as artillery and air strikes.
The Israeli army is closing roads leading to towns near the border with Lebanon and declaring them a “closed military zone,”. Israel is telling residents to move out of the zone.
Hezbollah continues to target Mount Dov area. Israel maintains a key early warning radar system there that watches for any potential Iranian ballistic missiles.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH/IRAN———————————-
Israeli army spokesman announced the destruction of Aleppo Airport in response to the missile launched from Syria. This is the second hit on this airport in a week. The rocket launched from Syria was intercepted.
WEST BANK——————————-
Palestinian rioters continue to fight with police/military in the area. A large force of the Israeli army was deployed in the Dheisheh camp, coinciding with a massive arrest campaign in the West Bank. The army has arrested 330 Palestinians in the West Bank since the outbreak of confrontations.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Iran has sent a warning message to Israel through the UN saying that Iran will have to intervene if the IDF operation in Gaza continues
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian met with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Doha, Qatar today.
Egyptian strongman Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, reportedly speaking at a military graduation on Thursday, urged residents of Gaza to “remain on their land” rather than attempt to relocate away from the violence of the jihadist terror group Hamas and any potential retaliation from the Israeli government.
Sisi’s regime shut its border with Gaza on Tuesday after the Israeli government suggested that those seeking to flee Hamas should consider relocating to the fellow Muslim Arab country. While many Arabs and others in the Middle East enthusiastically support many of Hamas’s demands – primarily, the creation of a state of “Palestine” carved out of Israel – their governments have been hesitant to assist Palestinians in evacuating wartorn areas.
Asharq Al-Awsat cited unnamed Egyptian officials warning that any Israeli attempt to defend itself from Hamas and strike in Gaza could result in Egypt taking in Palestinian refugees, a situation they wished to avoid in the interest of “Egyptian sovereignty.”
OBSERVATION - Over the past several decades, these “Palestinians” have been expelled out of several arab countries because they were fomenting violence against their hosts, besides being parasites and non-productive squatters. There is UNIVERSAL rejection by the arab world to hosting refugees.
FORECAST ————————-
BULF - Ground offensive into Gaza is imminent.
The major component of the Israeli ground assault will be penetrating into and clearing the maze of tunnels Hamas has constructed beneath and around Gaza City. The surface can be cleared relatively easily, but the underground will be another matter altogether. Israeli airstrikes have targeted many key tunnel areas - many associated with rocket launches and command and control, but manual clearing is the only way to insure that Hamas groups don’t spring back up and attack Israeli rear areas.
Expect Hezbollah to continue to play a cat and mouse game using ATGMs to keep IDF on their toes and attempt to draw them into AT kill zones as they did in the 2008 Lebanon conflict. However, general feeling is that Hezbollah is not too thrilled in being forced into a war not of their choosing.
US direct involvement is still threatened should Hezbollah try to open up from the north. Also counter threats standing to Iran to keep out as well. This is the most dangerous component of the potential expansing of the war.
Iran –
Iran’s state broadcaster is urging Iranian citizens to sign up and express their preparedness for being enlisted and sent to the war against Israel. A similar campaign had been launched by the IRGC’s Fars News Agency.
See Israel above on new airstrike.