Globalism / Great Reset –
The annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank wrapped up on Saturday.
The new IMF outlook - signed off before the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas - sees global economic growth slowing from 3.5% last year to 3% this year and 2.9% next year, a 0.1% point downgrade from a previous 2024 estimate.
Global inflation is seen dropping from 6.9% this year to a still-high 5.8% next. Central bankers signaled readiness to end interest rate hikes if events allow, hopeful that inflation can be finally tamed without too hard a landing.
Most agreed it was too early to say how Middle East strife would affect a global economy which IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas described as “limping along, not sprinting”.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/14/key-takeaways-from-the-imf-world-bank-meetings.html
OBSERVATION - A mix of hopium and long term goals of the WEF in progressive implementation.
Economy –
A lot of mixed signals and analysis of last weeks data in reference to timing and extent of a 2024 recession.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Pro-hamas protests continued across the country at the usual locations. Violence has been limited.
Colleges like Harvard are suddenly being ripped at the pocket book level by sponsors withdrawing financial support over “academic” support of the Hamas atrocities. Reality is coming home fast for some of those students as they face being black listed for their support of Hamas.
Terrorism -
FBI Director Christopher Wray has announced that domestic threats have increased since Hamas’ first attack on Israel. On Saturday, Wray spoke at the International Association of Chiefs of Police conference in San Diego and acknowledged an increase in domestic threats due to “heightened environment” and called for an increase of vigilance.
“History has been witness to anti-Semitic and other forms of violent extremism for far too long,” he said. “Whether that be from foreign terrorist organizations, or those inspired by them, or domestic violent extremists motivated by their own racial animus, the targeting of a community because of their faith is completely unacceptable.”
OBSERVATION - Guess Catholics can worship without looking over their shoulders for a little while anyway.
On a more real level, with the war in Gaza set to go to the next level with an Israeli invasion of the Gaza City area, islamic threats towards the US and the rest of the world are gaining greater scrutiny. However, here in the US, the perverted FBI, CIA and DHS are probably poorly prepared for islamic related terror given the vast resources that have been shifted towards developing the tyrannical data base of biden/marxist democrat opposition. We are on our own folks.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
NOTE - The US has FOUR carrier CSGs out to sea! The last time four strike groups were underway was in early 2021.
The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) has finally departed from Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia following a delay of 1 Day. Eisenhower is going to the eastern Med after all. The DOD has confirmed that the US will deploy the USS Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group to the eastern Mediterranean to support the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group. It was originally announced that the Eisenhower would be patrolling other portions of the Med and on stand by should the Ford need assistance. At a hypothetical 26 knots would take 200 hours (over 8 days) for the Eisenhower to be on station with the Ford CSG.
This places the following naval force eventually in the region
USS Dwight D. Eisenhower
USS Philippine Sea (CG 58)
USS Gravely (DDG 107)
USS Mason (DDG 87)
USS Gerald R. Ford
USS Normandy (CG 60)
USS Thomas Hudner (DDG 116)
USS Ramage (DDG 61)
USS Carney (DDG 64)
USS Roosevelt (DDG-80)
NOTE - Not listed are the usual swarm of attack submarines that accompany these CSGs
RUMINT - Unconfirmed. U.S. Defense Officials have told the Israeli Government that U.S. Naval Ships in the eastern Mediterranean will be used to shoot down missiles that are launched by Hezbollah in Lebanon and that U.S. forces across the Middle East will target a number of Pro-Iranian Groups in Syria and Iraq if this escalates into a regional conflict.
OBSERVATION - Regarding the anti-missile operation - I don’t think the navy is in the optimum position to intercept missiles shot by Hezbollah into Israel - at an approximate 90 degrees to the rocket transjectory. Perhaps capable of intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles. To increase effectiveness, vessels would have to come dangerously close to being in the attack envelope of Hezbollah anti-ship missiles.
USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76), the Navy’s forward-deployed carrier, is also out on patrol, but currently in Busan, South Korea for a port visit. Reagan this week wrapped up drills with South Korea and Japan. Its operations are a deterrent to Chinese aggression in the region.
Meanwhile, USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) quietly left Naval Air Station North Island, Calif., on Thursday for a deployment to the Indo-Pacific, a Navy official confirmed to USNI News on Friday. Officials state that this was a ‘scheduled’ deployment. Its reported deployment area means that it can be shifted to the Arabian Sea / Persian Gulf region if the need arises. It can also be shifted to the east Pacific should China get too froggy, to assist the Reagan.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Biden administration has allocated $33.7 million from the American Rescue Plan to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), a Palestinian relief organization.
The funding, part of a larger $500 million allocation to the State Department’s Migration and Refugee Assistance program, has sparked concerns due to UNRWA’s alleged connections to Hamas, a designated terrorist organization, according to Fox News.
Critics have long accused UNRWA of failing to prevent aid from reaching Hamas terrorists. Reports indicate that UNRWA facilities have been used for Hamas activities and even for spreading propaganda within schools.
OBSERVATION - Slimy work around to fund Hamas. And this following the terror attack on Israel.
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Eyes continued to be focused on the battle for house speakership. But the bumbling crowd of dems and reps decided an extended break was more important than getting this settled and getting the budget set up for the current FY - with the CR running out in less than 30 days.
***
Republicans flipped the Louisiana governor seat back to red overnight.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden had to be escorted off the stage by his wife after he got confused following a speech.
Illegal Immigration –
Lead by the dipstick who pulled the fire alarm a couple weeks ago, progressives in congress are calling for the US to take in many of the 1 million displaced gazans. Lets see, add that to millions of others with questionable loyalties and everything will be just hunky-dory.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Russia calling for an immediate cease fire in Gaza - stating that it is a war crime to target civilians in a combat zone - No this isn’t a Babylon Bee article.
Russian naval presence in the eastern Med is at a low, with many components stuck in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea regions. They also appear to be maintaining a lower profile in the face of the Hamas/Israeli fight.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine reportedly launched a drone swarm attack towards Kursk, Russia overnight. Russia claims to have shot down 20 out of 27 drones. The remaining drones apparently hit their targets in the Kursk region.
The Russian assault on Adviivka has hit its high-water mark and is slowing, Follow on OSINT analysis of Russia’s attack indicates Russian achieved some surprise and had some minor success north of the town, but that they lost a lot of men an equipment (as has been noted here) as they charged into the Ukrainian defensive lines, with Ukrainian minefields having a field day. As Adviivka is located a short distance north of Russian occupied Donetsk, it has been attacked since 2014 and has developed one of the strongest defensive positions of the entire Ukraine front.
Other significant activity of the last couple days was the Ukraine drone attack on the resort city Sochi where Vladimir Putin’s official Black Sea resort home is based. I saw the reports earlier this last week, but failed to make the link to putin’s resort home.
OUTLOOK -
Fighting will continue in the Adviivka area as well as the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts. Details continue to be washed out by the Hamas / Israel fight. I see little change in the status quo of the battle(s) in the near term.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight observations
Documents recovered from the bodies of dead Hamas terrorists detailed plans to raid Israeli schools and youth centers, kill as many people as possible, and transport hostages quickly into the Gaza Strip, according to a new report.
Overcast with some rain may have delayed the ground assault. Unconfirmed reports that Israel was to launch the ground offensive this weekend was delayed until clouds clear so that Israeli helicopters, jet fighters and drones can provide proper oversight and targeting/attacks in support of the ground ops. Weather forecasts for Gaza show a weather system passing through the area on Monday, clearing for most of the remainder of the week.
After limited charter flights, the US Embassy is now planning to evacuate American citizens in Israel on a ship leaving Haifa tomorrow for Cyprus
The propaganda war continues unabated, latest round has Hamas claiming IDF bombing refugee convoys while using dolls doctored up as dead children for photo shots. Don’t accept reports at face value. I’m sitting on a lot of reports because they are not being verified.
GENERAL ——————————-
Hamas produced a video that claims to have documented an Israeli strike on refugees fleeing N Gaza. However, video experts’ investigation reveals that, Hamas bombed people on the evacuation route in Gaza. The explosion was likely caused by a homemade Hamas IED, designed to falsely implicate Israel and intimidate those following instructions, to continue using them as human shields. In spite of this, Israeli designated escape routes are still packed with Gazans pressing to get to southern Gaza. According to the UN, over 400,000 have evacuated south even before the Israeli warning was given.
When they get there, they will face gates closed by Egypt.
Additionally, it is being documented that Hamas has erected barricades to block traffic on the Israeli designated evacuation routes.
US Special Ops forces are on the ground in Israel and in a way, mark a red flag for Hamas/Hezbollah in that if they are hit, the US may well hit back - hard.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF says last night it targeted the commander of Hamas’ Nukhba Force in the South Khan Younis Battalion, Bilal al-Kedra, who was responsible for the attacks on Nirim and Nir Oz last weekend. A commander for the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s northern rocket array was also eliminated, according to Israel.
Hamas still has some rocket capabilities left, firing several barrages yesterday. IDF quickly hit the launch points.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah continued to trade fire with Israeli forces, relying primarily on ATGMs and some mortar fire. Israel continues to respond with direct tank fire as well as artillery and air strikes.
The Israeli army is closing roads leading to towns near the border with Lebanon and declaring them a “closed military zone,”. Israel is telling residents to move out of the zone.
Hezbollah continues to target Mount Dov area. Israel maintains a key early warning radar system there that watches for any potential Iranian ballistic missiles.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH/IRAN———————————-
Israeli army spokesman announced the destruction of Aleppo Airport in response to the missile launched from Syria. This is the second hit on this airport in a week. The rocket launched from Syria was intercepted.
WEST BANK——————————-
Palestinian rioters continue to fight with police/military in the area. A large force of the Israeli army was deployed in the Dheisheh camp, coinciding with a massive arrest campaign in the West Bank. The army has arrested 330 Palestinians in the West Bank since the outbreak of confrontations.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Iran has sent a warning message to Israel through the UN saying that Iran will have to intervene if the IDF operation in Gaza continues
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian met with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Doha, Qatar today.
Egyptian strongman Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, reportedly speaking at a military graduation on Thursday, urged residents of Gaza to “remain on their land” rather than attempt to relocate away from the violence of the jihadist terror group Hamas and any potential retaliation from the Israeli government.
Sisi’s regime shut its border with Gaza on Tuesday after the Israeli government suggested that those seeking to flee Hamas should consider relocating to the fellow Muslim Arab country. While many Arabs and others in the Middle East enthusiastically support many of Hamas’s demands – primarily, the creation of a state of “Palestine” carved out of Israel – their governments have been hesitant to assist Palestinians in evacuating wartorn areas.
Asharq Al-Awsat cited unnamed Egyptian officials warning that any Israeli attempt to defend itself from Hamas and strike in Gaza could result in Egypt taking in Palestinian refugees, a situation they wished to avoid in the interest of “Egyptian sovereignty.”
OBSERVATION - Over the past several decades, these “Palestinians” have been expelled out of several arab countries because they were fomenting violence against their hosts, besides being parasites and non-productive squatters. There is UNIVERSAL rejection by the arab world to hosting refugees.
FORECAST ————————-
BULF - Ground offensive into Gaza is imminent.
The major component of the Israeli ground assault will be penetrating into and clearing the maze of tunnels Hamas has constructed beneath and around Gaza City. The surface can be cleared relatively easily, but the underground will be another matter altogether. Israeli airstrikes have targeted many key tunnel areas - many associated with rocket launches and command and control, but manual clearing is the only way to insure that Hamas groups don’t spring back up and attack Israeli rear areas.
Expect Hezbollah to continue to play a cat and mouse game using ATGMs to keep IDF on their toes and attempt to draw them into AT kill zones as they did in the 2008 Lebanon conflict. However, general feeling is that Hezbollah is not too thrilled in being forced into a war not of their choosing.
US direct involvement is still threatened should Hezbollah try to open up from the north. Also counter threats standing to Iran to keep out as well. This is the most dangerous component of the potential expansing of the war.
Iran –
Iran’s state broadcaster is urging Iranian citizens to sign up and express their preparedness for being enlisted and sent to the war against Israel. A similar campaign had been launched by the IRGC’s Fars News Agency.
See Israel above on new airstrike.
Economy –
Rite Aid, one of the largest drugstore chains in the U.S., filed for bankruptcy. NOTE - many economists are observing that there has been a significant increase in bankruptcies in 2023.
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Analysis of various Hamas/Israel scenarios by Forward Observer outlines the dangers to the global economy. -
“An escalation of the Israel-Hamas War would increase oil prices, stock market volatility, and inflation, potentially dragging the world into recession, according to Bloomberg’s analysis of the scenarios.
A confined war in Gaza and lower Iranian crude oil production from Western sanctions would raise oil prices by $4 per barrel and have a slight effect on global inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
A multifront war in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria would increase oil prices by $8 per barrel, and the effect on global inflation and GDP would be twice as severe as a confined war.
A direct war between Israel and Iran and unrest in the wider Middle East would raise oil prices by $64 per barrel, stock markets would be extremely volatile, and the effects on inflation and GDP would trigger a global recession.”
OBSERVATION - At the current transjectory, the second scenario is building to be most likely. The last would doubtless include US attacks on Iran as well and though possible, it is the less likely, at least at this stage of the war.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Aftershocks from the Hamas terror attack on Israel continue to ripple with pro-Hamas groups doubling down of their support. Will the Israeli invasion of Gaza shift their actions to be more violent?
Terrorism -
Biden administration chose CAIR in May to “educate religious communities about steps they can take to protect their houses of worship from hate incidents” as part of the National Strategy to Combat Anti-Semitism.
At the time, critics slammed the White House for partnering with CAIR, which has a history of anti-Semitism and was linked to Hamas in a federal terrorism case in 2007.
CAIR cast blame for the attack squarely on Israel. On Monday, the group urged lawmakers to “address the root causes of Mideast violence,” which it attributed to the “Israeli government’s apartheid policies.”
Nihad Awad, the executive director of CAIR, referred to Israel as a “settler colonial Apartheid state” in the wake of the attacks, and decried the placement of the Israeli flag on the Eiffel Tower in Paris. Awad wrote on social media that “Israel=Russia,” and called on President Joe Biden to condemn Israel, but not the Hamas attackers. “You must condemn the occupier not the occupied,” Awad wrote.
OBSERVATION - In spite of biden’s rhetoric and some military actions showing support to Israel in its fight against Hamas, the deep, dark rotting core of biden and the powers that be in the swamp are strongly anti-semitic. This is a great example of the fox guarding the hen house.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
See NATO exercise below
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Evidence that the mRNA jab has facilitated “turbo” cancer development.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Rep Jordan still needs to firm up 15 republican votes as he pushes for a Tuesday vote in the house. Rumors that another republican may be nominated as well which would split the vote and cause the House to continue to be without a speaker. Further, some members of the Republican Conference “want to cut a deal” with House Democrats to elect a speaker after Jordan won the GOP nomination. These negotiations are rumored to be lead by a group of “Never Jordans” led by Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL). Further rumors are to gain democrat support for an alternative republican speaker in exchange for increased power in the House.
OBSERVATION - Republican death wishes all around. Going into an election year and some stuck up republicans with their underwear in a wedgie are willing to destroy the control of the House. Rogers is from a deep red district, his constituents need to grab him by the tie and get his attention fast. A pox on all of them.
Illegal Immigration –
Chicago community which voted overwhelmingly for Biden destroy the city council over their plan to house migrants in their “sanctuary city”
OBSERVATION - Cross file under CW2. The existing entitlement class rejecting a new, competitor to the govt teat.
North/South Korea –
Yonhap is reporting that a USAF B-52 will land at a South Korean air base later this week.
This will be the first time that a USAF B-52 has landed in South Korea since 2016. NK is expected to be very vociferous over the deployment.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Russia calling for an immediate cease fire in Gaza - stating that it is a war crime to target civilians in a combat zone - No this isn’t a Babylon Bee article.
Russia trying to maintain some naval vessels in Crimea as their ports in Russia are not capable of handling all the remains ships of the Black Sea fleet.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Relatively slow night for Ukraine ADA - Ukrainian air defense shot down 11 of 12 Shahed drones, 2 of 5 Kh-59 missiles launched by Russia overnight
Adviivka remains a hotly contested location, but the Russian capability to exploit any small gains is diminishing rapidly.
Developing reports that Ukraine has established a growing breakthrough of Russian defense lines along the rail line south of Bakhmut has sparked speculation that Russia is on the verge of pulling back to a forest belt and small river to the east. But I don’t expect any sudden breakthrough by Ukrainian forces.
Kupiansk Front -
OSINT sources reporting on Ukrainian sources indicated that the Russian military command is committing elements of all three WMD armies to offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Lyman line. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash stated that elements of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army, 6th CAA, and 20th CAA are conducting offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Lyman line. The presence of all three army-level formations subordinate to the WMD on this frontline indicates that Russian forces are conducting these offensive operations under a relatively cohesive and doctrinally sound command structure.
However, units involved are still very poorly trained and lacking adequate equipment, armor and tanks. This disadvantage has been on display in recent defeats by Ukrainian forces when Russia attempted to kick off a counter offensive this summer . The challenge will be to see how well this hold up during winter operations.
Russian Territory –
Ukraine drone bombed the Krasna Yaruga electrical substation in Belgorod Oblast. It is reported that this substation was connected to the Russian army facilities.
OUTLOOK -
Fighting will continue in the Adviivka area as well as the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts. Russia efforts on the Kupiansk Front may be increasing more in an effort to gain tactical positioning for a inferred winter offensive.
Poland –
The election results are in. Sadly, it looks like a globalist coalition has won in Poland. The new govt ran on shifting the country to a more WEF compliant state and may be dramatically shifting its policies on allowing ‘migrants’ into the nation as one key component.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO will launch its long-planned annual nuclear exercise “Steadfast Noon” on Monday (16 October 2023) with up to 60 aircraft taking part in training flights over southern Europe. The maneuvers will involve 13 Allied countries and a mix of aircraft types, including advanced fighter jets and U.S. B-52 bombers that will fly in from the United States. Conventional jets and surveillance and refueling aircraft also take part. A different NATO Ally hosts Steadfast Noon each year. Training flights will take place over Italy, Croatia and the Mediterranean Sea.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight observations
* Israel restored water to S Gaza - as an incentive to get gazans to relocate there
* Air strikes continue with intensity while Hamas rocket barrages become fewer and farther apart.
* Number of Americans killed in Hamas massacre in Israel rises to 30 with 13 other Americans still missing.
* IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari says the military has so far notified the families of 199 hostages that their loved ones are being held in the Gaza Strip.
* The Israeli Defense Force reports that over 6,000 Rockets have been launched from the Gaza Strip towards Northern, Central, and Southern Israel since the Surprise Attack by Hamas on October 7th.
GENERAL ——————————-
More and more raw footage of the Hamas massacres taken by Hamas terrorists are getting released onto social media. This is driving home the fact that Hamas was purposefully carrying out an operation to kill civilians in mass numbers. Hamas supporters are having trouble spinning the videos because the sources are Hamas terrorists.
The battlefield in the information / interwebs between Hamas and Israel continues to be fierce, but what seems evident to me is that Hamas’ tactics of victimhood used in the past are not gaining the traction they once did. I think this is largely in part because of the massive red lines they crossed in executing this attack and Israeli determination to eliminate them once and for all.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Force build up continues with evidence of more aggressive recon in force operations. Factors other than weather now seem to be causing the delay in ground ops - most likely pressure from the US as well as a likely final assessment of Hamas defensives before kicking off the invasion.
Refugees continue to pour south in spite of Hamas efforts to dissuade and block such movement. A general protected zone near the Rafah crossing with water an food is a factor to many. Others are refusing to go, desiring to die in place.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Not confirmed. US asks Israel to avoid preemptive strike on Hezbollah. Washington pledges to mobilize US aircraft if Hezbollah initiates war, according to some sources towards that end. Along the same lines, Israel’s emergency govt reportedly engaged in a debate on how quickly to expand the fight to Hezbollah, resulting in a decision not to preemptively open that front until operations are established in Gaza.
Joint Ministry of Defense and IDF announcement: The National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA) of the Ministry of Defense and the IDF are announcing the implementation of a plan to evacuate residents of northern Israel who live in the area up to 2 kilometers from the Lebanese border to state-funded guesthouses. The 28 communities involved in the evacuation.
Continued skirmishes overnight, with Hezbollah using ATGMs to harass Israeli forces with Israel responding with artillery and air/drone strikes on Hezbollah facilities and sites. Some reported attempts of Hezbollah infiltration that were intercepted by Israeli forces.
These attacks are designed by Hezbollah to obstruct the counterattack on Gaza.
Lebanese govt said yesterday that they cannot control what Hezbollah does in Lebanon and they do not speak for the Lebanese people.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Mixed signals coming out of Iran lately. On one hand they warned that if Israel’s “war crimes and genocide” are not stopped then the situation could spiral out of control with “far-reaching consequences.” and in a message sent via the U.N. - that it would have to respond if Israel carries out a ground offensive in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. OTOH, Iran appears to back down and announces they won’t be assisting Hamas as they say they will *not* be directly involved in the Israel-Hamas war. In an announcement to the United Nations in New York, Iran said “the resistance can defend themselves.” “Iran’s armed forces will not engage, provided that the Israeli apartheid does not dare to attack Iran, its interests, and nationals. The resistance front can defend itself.”
RUMINT. Syrian Officials have reportedly told the WSJ that fighters with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp and Iranian-proxy groups in the region have begun to move from their bases in Eastern Syria in and around the City of Deir ez-Zor towards the Israeli border near Damascus. I maintain this as RUMINT because these forces were being built up in eastern Syria in an effort to drive US / Allied forces out of Syria where they are based to keep ISIS in check. This is also contra to stated Iranian threats to US forces in the region should Israel invade Gaza or attack Iran.
WEST BANK——————————-
The army arrested 70 Palestinians from the West Bank and Jerusalem, last night and today at dawn. Fighting continues across portions of the West Bank between palistanians and Israeli police/military.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
For the first time since the beginning of the war: the Rafah crossing will be opened at 9:00. Reportedly, more than a hundred trucks waiting to move from Al-Arish to enter the Gaza Strip through the Rafah crossing.
Word still is that a very restricted exodus of people - mostly dual citizens.
FORECAST ————————-
BULF - Ground offensive into Gaza is imminent. I know I’ve been saying this for several days now with no major incursion. However, things like this cannot be rushed and Israel has little room for failure. All tactical indicators I’ve seen point to it happening at any moment. A major delay may be trying to get as many gazans out of the area as possible.
Iran –
See Israel above on mixed threats.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Saudi Arabia –
Apart from calls for cease fire, not much more out of SA. Their meeting with Iranian officials appear to have been a nothing burger except for the fact that they did meet. Most observers say they just talked past each other.
Syria -
With Syria and Russia talking about stopping Israeli attacks on ‘civilians’ interspersed with air strikes on Syrian civilians in Idlib and Aleppo . . . . .