Economy –
Rite Aid, one of the largest drugstore chains in the U.S., filed for bankruptcy. NOTE - many economists are observing that there has been a significant increase in bankruptcies in 2023.
***
Analysis of various Hamas/Israel scenarios by Forward Observer outlines the dangers to the global economy. -
“An escalation of the Israel-Hamas War would increase oil prices, stock market volatility, and inflation, potentially dragging the world into recession, according to Bloomberg’s analysis of the scenarios.
A confined war in Gaza and lower Iranian crude oil production from Western sanctions would raise oil prices by $4 per barrel and have a slight effect on global inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
A multifront war in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria would increase oil prices by $8 per barrel, and the effect on global inflation and GDP would be twice as severe as a confined war.
A direct war between Israel and Iran and unrest in the wider Middle East would raise oil prices by $64 per barrel, stock markets would be extremely volatile, and the effects on inflation and GDP would trigger a global recession.”
OBSERVATION - At the current transjectory, the second scenario is building to be most likely. The last would doubtless include US attacks on Iran as well and though possible, it is the less likely, at least at this stage of the war.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Aftershocks from the Hamas terror attack on Israel continue to ripple with pro-Hamas groups doubling down of their support. Will the Israeli invasion of Gaza shift their actions to be more violent?
Terrorism -
Biden administration chose CAIR in May to “educate religious communities about steps they can take to protect their houses of worship from hate incidents” as part of the National Strategy to Combat Anti-Semitism.
At the time, critics slammed the White House for partnering with CAIR, which has a history of anti-Semitism and was linked to Hamas in a federal terrorism case in 2007.
CAIR cast blame for the attack squarely on Israel. On Monday, the group urged lawmakers to “address the root causes of Mideast violence,” which it attributed to the “Israeli government’s apartheid policies.”
Nihad Awad, the executive director of CAIR, referred to Israel as a “settler colonial Apartheid state” in the wake of the attacks, and decried the placement of the Israeli flag on the Eiffel Tower in Paris. Awad wrote on social media that “Israel=Russia,” and called on President Joe Biden to condemn Israel, but not the Hamas attackers. “You must condemn the occupier not the occupied,” Awad wrote.
OBSERVATION - In spite of biden’s rhetoric and some military actions showing support to Israel in its fight against Hamas, the deep, dark rotting core of biden and the powers that be in the swamp are strongly anti-semitic. This is a great example of the fox guarding the hen house.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
See NATO exercise below
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Evidence that the mRNA jab has facilitated “turbo” cancer development.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Rep Jordan still needs to firm up 15 republican votes as he pushes for a Tuesday vote in the house. Rumors that another republican may be nominated as well which would split the vote and cause the House to continue to be without a speaker. Further, some members of the Republican Conference “want to cut a deal” with House Democrats to elect a speaker after Jordan won the GOP nomination. These negotiations are rumored to be lead by a group of “Never Jordans” led by Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL). Further rumors are to gain democrat support for an alternative republican speaker in exchange for increased power in the House.
OBSERVATION - Republican death wishes all around. Going into an election year and some stuck up republicans with their underwear in a wedgie are willing to destroy the control of the House. Rogers is from a deep red district, his constituents need to grab him by the tie and get his attention fast. A pox on all of them.
Illegal Immigration –
Chicago community which voted overwhelmingly for Biden destroy the city council over their plan to house migrants in their “sanctuary city”
OBSERVATION - Cross file under CW2. The existing entitlement class rejecting a new, competitor to the govt teat.
North/South Korea –
Yonhap is reporting that a USAF B-52 will land at a South Korean air base later this week.
This will be the first time that a USAF B-52 has landed in South Korea since 2016. NK is expected to be very vociferous over the deployment.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Russia calling for an immediate cease fire in Gaza - stating that it is a war crime to target civilians in a combat zone - No this isn’t a Babylon Bee article.
Russia trying to maintain some naval vessels in Crimea as their ports in Russia are not capable of handling all the remains ships of the Black Sea fleet.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Relatively slow night for Ukraine ADA - Ukrainian air defense shot down 11 of 12 Shahed drones, 2 of 5 Kh-59 missiles launched by Russia overnight
Adviivka remains a hotly contested location, but the Russian capability to exploit any small gains is diminishing rapidly.
Developing reports that Ukraine has established a growing breakthrough of Russian defense lines along the rail line south of Bakhmut has sparked speculation that Russia is on the verge of pulling back to a forest belt and small river to the east. But I don’t expect any sudden breakthrough by Ukrainian forces.
Kupiansk Front -
OSINT sources reporting on Ukrainian sources indicated that the Russian military command is committing elements of all three WMD armies to offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Lyman line. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash stated that elements of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army, 6th CAA, and 20th CAA are conducting offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Lyman line. The presence of all three army-level formations subordinate to the WMD on this frontline indicates that Russian forces are conducting these offensive operations under a relatively cohesive and doctrinally sound command structure.
However, units involved are still very poorly trained and lacking adequate equipment, armor and tanks. This disadvantage has been on display in recent defeats by Ukrainian forces when Russia attempted to kick off a counter offensive this summer . The challenge will be to see how well this hold up during winter operations.
Russian Territory –
Ukraine drone bombed the Krasna Yaruga electrical substation in Belgorod Oblast. It is reported that this substation was connected to the Russian army facilities.
OUTLOOK -
Fighting will continue in the Adviivka area as well as the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts. Russia efforts on the Kupiansk Front may be increasing more in an effort to gain tactical positioning for a inferred winter offensive.
Poland –
The election results are in. Sadly, it looks like a globalist coalition has won in Poland. The new govt ran on shifting the country to a more WEF compliant state and may be dramatically shifting its policies on allowing ‘migrants’ into the nation as one key component.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO will launch its long-planned annual nuclear exercise “Steadfast Noon” on Monday (16 October 2023) with up to 60 aircraft taking part in training flights over southern Europe. The maneuvers will involve 13 Allied countries and a mix of aircraft types, including advanced fighter jets and U.S. B-52 bombers that will fly in from the United States. Conventional jets and surveillance and refueling aircraft also take part. A different NATO Ally hosts Steadfast Noon each year. Training flights will take place over Italy, Croatia and the Mediterranean Sea.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight observations
* Israel restored water to S Gaza - as an incentive to get gazans to relocate there
* Air strikes continue with intensity while Hamas rocket barrages become fewer and farther apart.
* Number of Americans killed in Hamas massacre in Israel rises to 30 with 13 other Americans still missing.
* IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari says the military has so far notified the families of 199 hostages that their loved ones are being held in the Gaza Strip.
* The Israeli Defense Force reports that over 6,000 Rockets have been launched from the Gaza Strip towards Northern, Central, and Southern Israel since the Surprise Attack by Hamas on October 7th.
GENERAL ——————————-
More and more raw footage of the Hamas massacres taken by Hamas terrorists are getting released onto social media. This is driving home the fact that Hamas was purposefully carrying out an operation to kill civilians in mass numbers. Hamas supporters are having trouble spinning the videos because the sources are Hamas terrorists.
The battlefield in the information / interwebs between Hamas and Israel continues to be fierce, but what seems evident to me is that Hamas’ tactics of victimhood used in the past are not gaining the traction they once did. I think this is largely in part because of the massive red lines they crossed in executing this attack and Israeli determination to eliminate them once and for all.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Force build up continues with evidence of more aggressive recon in force operations. Factors other than weather now seem to be causing the delay in ground ops - most likely pressure from the US as well as a likely final assessment of Hamas defensives before kicking off the invasion.
Refugees continue to pour south in spite of Hamas efforts to dissuade and block such movement. A general protected zone near the Rafah crossing with water an food is a factor to many. Others are refusing to go, desiring to die in place.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Not confirmed. US asks Israel to avoid preemptive strike on Hezbollah. Washington pledges to mobilize US aircraft if Hezbollah initiates war, according to some sources towards that end. Along the same lines, Israel’s emergency govt reportedly engaged in a debate on how quickly to expand the fight to Hezbollah, resulting in a decision not to preemptively open that front until operations are established in Gaza.
Joint Ministry of Defense and IDF announcement: The National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA) of the Ministry of Defense and the IDF are announcing the implementation of a plan to evacuate residents of northern Israel who live in the area up to 2 kilometers from the Lebanese border to state-funded guesthouses. The 28 communities involved in the evacuation.
Continued skirmishes overnight, with Hezbollah using ATGMs to harass Israeli forces with Israel responding with artillery and air/drone strikes on Hezbollah facilities and sites. Some reported attempts of Hezbollah infiltration that were intercepted by Israeli forces.
These attacks are designed by Hezbollah to obstruct the counterattack on Gaza.
Lebanese govt said yesterday that they cannot control what Hezbollah does in Lebanon and they do not speak for the Lebanese people.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Mixed signals coming out of Iran lately. On one hand they warned that if Israel’s “war crimes and genocide” are not stopped then the situation could spiral out of control with “far-reaching consequences.” and in a message sent via the U.N. - that it would have to respond if Israel carries out a ground offensive in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. OTOH, Iran appears to back down and announces they won’t be assisting Hamas as they say they will *not* be directly involved in the Israel-Hamas war. In an announcement to the United Nations in New York, Iran said “the resistance can defend themselves.” “Iran’s armed forces will not engage, provided that the Israeli apartheid does not dare to attack Iran, its interests, and nationals. The resistance front can defend itself.”
RUMINT. Syrian Officials have reportedly told the WSJ that fighters with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp and Iranian-proxy groups in the region have begun to move from their bases in Eastern Syria in and around the City of Deir ez-Zor towards the Israeli border near Damascus. I maintain this as RUMINT because these forces were being built up in eastern Syria in an effort to drive US / Allied forces out of Syria where they are based to keep ISIS in check. This is also contra to stated Iranian threats to US forces in the region should Israel invade Gaza or attack Iran.
WEST BANK——————————-
The army arrested 70 Palestinians from the West Bank and Jerusalem, last night and today at dawn. Fighting continues across portions of the West Bank between palistanians and Israeli police/military.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
For the first time since the beginning of the war: the Rafah crossing will be opened at 9:00. Reportedly, more than a hundred trucks waiting to move from Al-Arish to enter the Gaza Strip through the Rafah crossing.
Word still is that a very restricted exodus of people - mostly dual citizens.
FORECAST ————————-
BULF - Ground offensive into Gaza is imminent. I know I’ve been saying this for several days now with no major incursion. However, things like this cannot be rushed and Israel has little room for failure. All tactical indicators I’ve seen point to it happening at any moment. A major delay may be trying to get as many gazans out of the area as possible.
Iran –
See Israel above on mixed threats.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Saudi Arabia –
Apart from calls for cease fire, not much more out of SA. Their meeting with Iranian officials appear to have been a nothing burger except for the fact that they did meet. Most observers say they just talked past each other.
Syria -
With Syria and Russia talking about stopping Israeli attacks on ‘civilians’ interspersed with air strikes on Syrian civilians in Idlib and Aleppo . . . . .
p
The black community's become too high maintenance - now that the press has stopped playing 'gullible fool' to all crimes black.. dem's are dumping them in favor of illegals. It'll take a year or two, but it's happening.
Economy –
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. can afford wars on two fronts, as the Israel-Hamas War threatens Middle East stability, and the Biden administration continues to support Ukraine’s fight against Russia.
OBSERVATION - Of course we can - set the money printer to “whrrrrrrrr” and away we go.
***
United Auto Workers (UAW) Union President Shawn Fain announced a tactical shift by the UAW from announced walkouts on Fridays to unannounced strikes that could happen at any time, with the intent to make strikes less predictable and more economically damaging.
OBSERVATION - As the economic impacts from the strikes start to ripple across the US economy, the union demands place the auto makers under a lose-lose scenario with the biggest losers being the consumers.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Word is out there that Rand Paul is warning of a little-known federal law that allows the president of the United States to shut down the internet with a “kill switch.”
Paul warned that the government’s ” emergency powers ” can remove freedoms in the name of safety and security, including an internet “kill switch” to turn off the Internet.
“We’ve also looked at the emergency powers and emergency powers — you know the courts have said you don’t throw out the Constitution during emergencies — but a lot of our legislation acts as if you could throw things away,” Paul told Atlas on Thursday on the doctor’s “Independent Truths” podcast.
OBSERVATION - Similar internet cut off powers have been used numerous times by tyrannical govts during times of civil unrest to prevent coordination between opposition elements. The regime could utilize this as 2024 moves forward and civil unrest (that they may have helped to start) boils over.
****
Scattered pro-Hamas protests continue out there. One group tried to storm the White House, but were stopped.
Terrorism -
Underreported in the news is that a Muslim terrorist intentionally carried out an Islamic terrorist attack via vehicular jihad in Long Beach, CA. The perp is named Khalid Yagobbi and is under arrest. On his Facebook page, other Islamists are commenting on his page, thanking him for his act of terrorism in CA.
OBSERVATION - This is an example of a ‘lone wolf’ attack that I noted was highly probable, due to the Hamas/Israel conflict. The MSM is keeping a lid on it to essentially protect the anti-Israel, anti-American islamic sector in the country.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
According to multiple U.S. Defense Officials, the the Bataan Amphibious-Ready Group consisting of the USS Bataan (LHD-5) and USS Carter Hall (LSD-50) as well as roughly 2,500 Marines with the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit are now enroute towards the Eastern Mediterranean from the Arabian Sea, where she will link back up with the USS Mesa Verde (LPD-19) who has finished her “Mid-Deployment Repair Period” in Spain early and is already steaming across the Mediterranean to join the USS Ford.
OBSERVATION - This leaves the Straits of Hormuz defense weakened. There are some independently operating destroyers there along with a beefed up Air Force contingent defense planners will have to rely on if things go sideways
***
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has ordered that roughly 2,000 troops prepare for a potential deployment to Israel to help with tasks like medical and logistical support, according to multiple defense officials.
POLITICAL FRONT –
“Special” prosecutor Smith got a gag order placed on Trump in an egregious assault on Trump’s first amendment rights. Going onto appeal.
***
Drama set as the vote for speaker of the House moves forward with Jordan within a couple republican votes of getting in. Holdouts are surprisingly from deep red mega trump districts. I’m optimistic that the trend is going Jordan’s way as the congressional phone lines have reportedly been in melt down mode the last couple days.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden arrives in Israel on Wednesday. He will also visit Jordan, where he is scheduled to meet with local King Abdullah II bin Hussein, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and the leader of partially recognized Palestine, Mahmoud Abbas.
OBSERVATION - Biden has nothing to contribute to the situation other than to disrupt Israeli plans to eliminate Hamas’ presence in northern Gaza.
BTW - harris has been no where to be seen on the hamas war.
China –
Putin has arrived in China, making a surprise visit.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Russia calling for an immediate cease fire in Gaza - stating that it is a war crime to target civilians in a combat zone - No this isn’t a Babylon Bee article.
*****
Putin has arrived in China, making a surprise visit.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Deputies of the Russian State Duma have passed in the first reading a bill to cancel ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. State Duma Speaker Volodin reported.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine has claimed a major strike on a Russian helicopter base at Berdyansk. Claim partially collaborated by Russian sources. The base is believed to host at least detachment-sized elements from 39th Separate Helicopter Regiment (39 OVP), 18th Army Aviation Brigade (18 Br AA) with perhaps others. There is an unconfirmed claim that Russian aviation hit as well at Luhansk Airport. Ukraine claims the strike destroyed at least 9 helicopters (KA-52, MI-24 and MI-28 attack helicopters.) , a SAM system, an ammunition warehouse, and damaged the airfield runways. Depending on how many helicopters were present in Berdyansk and Luhansk, we may see the worst single day losses in Russian Air Force history. Speculation is that Ukraine used ATACMS for the first time. Bomblets associated with ATACMS have reportedly been found at these airfields.
Adviivka remains a hotly contested location, but is appears that the tempo of Russian attacks is slowing and they are making no gains. OSINT analysts indicate that Russia likely deployed elements of at least two Central Military District (CMD) brigades to reinforce offensive operations by Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) forces on the Avdiivka front.
Russia targeted the port facilities in the Odesa region with drone attacks with the Ukrainian air defense shooting down 6 of 6 Shahed drones and 1 Kh-59 cruise missile overnight.
OUTLOOK -
Fighting will continue in the Adviivka area as well as the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.
If ATACMS has been used, this could be a game changer in some instances. The airfields that were hit recently upgraded its defenses for aircraft with berms, a method that reduces the effects of Storm Shadow cruise missiles with their concentrated blast. Bomblets scattered over a broad area overcomes the protectiveness of the berms, making hardened targets relatively soft again.
Poland –
The election of a new, leftist govt is causing questions over Poland’s support to Ukraine.
Europe / NATO General –
Police in Brussels have shot dead the man who killed two Swedish nationals on Monday evening. Two Swedes were killed and a third injured in the automatic rifle attack on Monday.
It took place on Boulevard d’Ypres, 5km (3 miles) from the stadium where Belgium was playing Sweden to qualify for the Euro 2024 football tournament.
The 45-year-old man named as Abdesalem was shot in a café in the Schaerbeek neighborhood.
Brussels has been on its highest terror alert ever since.
The gunman is believed to be a man of Tunisian origin who was in Belgium illegally, after his asylum application was rejected in 2020.
He posted a video online saying he had killed people in the name of God and the prosecutor’s office believes he was inspired by the Islamic State group.
OBSERVATION - Another instance of a ‘lone wolf’ attack inspired by Hamas et al.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight observations
Biden is scheduled to arrive in Israel on Wednesday. Now word that Macron is scheduled to arrive there as well.
* Germany’s Chancellor Scholz warns Iran and Hezbollah against joining the conflict
* The IDF eliminated the head of the Hamas Shura Council and the head of Hamas general intelligence.
* U.S. has placed around 2,000 troops on “be ready to deploy” orders - mostly for medical and logistical operations. This is in addition to the Bataan Amphibious Ready Group (includes the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit) that is heading to the Eastern Mediterranean to join the USS Ford CSG.
GENERAL ——————————-
Ground invasion could have been delayed due to growing concerns with Hezbollah. Israeli intel must be seeing something that is causing them to reposition assets, they knew from day one that Hezbollah would respond to a Gaza invasion.
The timing now is further interrupted by the scheduled arrival of biden and Macron to Israel.
Combat in general seems to have dropped off a notch or two. Hamas still manages some rocket barrages and Israel selectively hitting Gaza targets. Action in the north seems to be picking up as indicators of Israel preparing some of southern Lebanon battlefield for war.
IDF says it struck and killed the head of Hamas’s Shura Council, Osama Mazini, who was also tasked with handling the prisoner portfolio, in an airstrike in the Gaza Strip last night.
Iran keeps referring an ‘Axis of Resistance’- an umbrella term which refers to a range of militia groups which are located throughout the region and maintained by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force- the external operations branch of the Iranian armed forces.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Hamas continues limited rocket attacks, IAF continues to hit key targets -focusing on battlefield preparations for the ground assault.
Gazans continue to make their way south, but any support is being blocked by Egypt, not Israel.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Iran’s FM stated that “pre-emptive actions” by the resistance front against Israel could be expected in the coming hours. This was backed up by Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon who stated that the warnings should be taken seriously. Hezbollah continues to target Israeli forces and equipment with small arms and ATGMs.
The IDF launched strikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon. This represents an expansion of the IDF targeting of Hezbollah assets in S Lebanon.
Unconfirmed reports that the Lebanese Army is claiming to have launched an military operation in Southern Lebanon this morning which resulted in the discovery of over 20 Hezbollah missile/rocket launchers near the towns of Qalila and Al-Sha’iyat that were aimed towards northern Israel; they further claim that EOD Teams are in the process of dismantling the launch sites.
NOTE - This is a major action by the Lebanese govt to oppose Hezbollah in this manner - should the reports prove out. Hezbollah is acknowledged to the political play maker and the Lebanese army generally thought to be too weak to stand up to it.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
IAF his the Damascus airport again, preventing potential cargo aircraft from iran from using the airfield to bring in military supplies.
WEST BANK——————————-
Continued riots and conflicts between the West Bank and Israeli police. PA president Abbas - safely hiding in Jordan - calling for support to Hamas.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
There is some international support for humanitarian aid to Gazans, but that hinges on Egypt allowing it in and some sort of way to prevent Hamas getting its hands on it.
Calls continue for countries to host Gazan refugees - except that NONE of the arab countries are volunteering to take anyone. Not a single one.
King Abdullah II of Jordan declares that Palestinian refugees is his “red line”. “There will be NO refugees in Jordan and there will be NO refugees in Egypt.”
FORECAST ————————-
BULF - Ground offensive into Gaza is imminent. However, with visits by biden and others, it doesn’t appear now that it will kick off before Thursday.
Iran increases the threats of a preemptive strike on Israel, probably including Hezbollah in the mix. But those strikes seem to be utilizing proxy elements of the ‘Axis of Resistance’. At this stage, Iran is fully aware that if they do anything directly, the wrath of Israel, US and many European nations will fix on it and cause a much broader and deadly regional war. As long as they can pull the puppet strings they can hold to a degree of plausible deniability - we all know that would be a lie - but could deflect some blame.
Evaluation of Iranian/Hezbollah responses to a Gaza invasion may be getting a second look.
The level of deterrence provided by US military presence and warnings to Iran and Hezbollah is uncertain. All generally recognize that should Hezbollah and Iran get directly involved (and in the case of Hezbollah more than the minor skirmishes) the situation will blow up rapidly.
Iran –
See Israel above on mixed threats.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
IAF appears to have targeted the Damascus airport once again.
Central / South America General-
Ecuador has elected a 35-year-old conservative, turning the tide against communism. Recent elections in Latin American countries has shifted those goats to the left, this counters the trend.
Misc of Note –
“At a time when Americans are increasingly unhealthy and their water filled with contaminants, such as endocrine disrupters, heavy metals, and ‘forever’ chemicals, such as PFAS, the EPA should be pursuing policies within its regulatory authority that incentivize increased use of water-filtration systems, not less,” the Gaetz letter to Administrator Michael Regan states.
The move by the EPA would force Berkey and millions of other water filters to put “aggressive warning signs” on their products that would give the appearance that it is a hazardous material.
OBSERVATION - Berkey is considered the standard in physical water purification devices for most preppers. This shows that the regime is also aware of and focusing on the prepper community. Water is essential and the capability to purify your own in relatively large amounts critical. Standard preparedness planning calls for about 5 gallons per person per day. The Berkey situation also points to another preparedness standard of having other contingency methods of water purification - such as distillation - on hand as well.
NOTE- Berkey’s ability to purify chemically contaminated water is questionable, even though they have carbon impregnated filters, the chemical breakthrough times are likely very short and I wouldn’t trust them for that.