Things have seemingly exploded on so many fronts, I’m having difficulty tracking them. Some items may get missed in the mess.
Globalism / Great Reset –
No doubt that the globalists are contemplating how to exploit the Hama/Israel war to their advantage.
Economy –
Various sectors of the economy are trying to assess the impacts of the current Hamas / Israeli war and trying to foresee impacts from any expansion of the fighting. Multiple markets are going to be in flux over the rest of the week.
***
UAW has expanded its strike action to include Mack Trucks, bringing the total number of striking members to over 30,000 across 22 states. This brings the total number of striking UAW members to more than 30,000 across 22 states.
OBSERVATION - Another disaster of biden’s making continues to grow.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Former CIA Director and retired Gen. Michael Hayden seemed to call for the death of Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) Monday night.
Quoting a Twitter post that asked, “Should Tommy Tuberville be removed from his committee? Yes or No?” Hayden wrote, “How about the human race?”
Hayden was one of the dishonest intelligence community veterans who signed a letter dismissing the Hunter Biden laptop story as Russian disinformation.
OBSERVATION - He was just caught echoing the general view of the left that opposition should be killed. As a former flag officer, in the “Before Years” he would be stripped of his rank and retirement benefits for such as statement. He has nothing to fear from this regime.
***
Pro-Israel rallies and demonstrations are growing across the US, increasing the possibility of clashes with Antifa support pro-Hamas groups.
Terrorism -
Multiple conservative commentators are warning that Hamas terrorists would target U.S. cities over the next 12 months, citing a wide variety of off the record sources.
OBSERVATION - With pretty good certainty Hamas and Hezbollah have sleeper cells in country, they have been uncovered in other countries, and we are not immune. However, I consider their insider ‘informants’ to be on the threshold of RUMINT given thats many other pieces of insider information haven’t panned out.
The only thing in my book that is granting any credibility to these warnings are the converging events that would lead to their activation in the next 14 months. 1) War with Israel ; 2) contentious presidential election cycle; 3) Increasingly weak, both mentally and physically president; and 4) potential economic recession / crash all make things favorable.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Ford CSG is nearing station off the coast of Israel.
USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier to enter Busan, S Korea, on Thursday
POLITICAL FRONT –
“Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and I spoke further on Hamas’ terrorist attacks on Israel,” Blinken said in a post on X, formerly Twitter. “I encouraged Türkiye’s advocacy for a cease-fire and release of all hostages held by Hamas immediately,” Blinken said in the since-deleted post.
OBSERVATION - the regime has been totally out to lunch on this foreign policy disaster. The now deleted Xweet essentially called on Israel to sit passively and accept the atrocity.
***
Ariane Tabatabai continues to serve as Chief of Staff to Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict Christopher Maier despite revelations of her ties to the Iranian government intelligence network the Iran Experts Initiative, and pressure from lawmakers for answers.
Combined with the scandal brewing with the Iranian infiltration of the Departments of State and Defense by suspended Iran envoy Robert Malley and still serving Chief of Staff Ariane Tabatabai, combined with the Biden administration’s admission they did not see this attack coming, could become a major scandal for President Biden and an early October surprise heading into 2024.
OBSERVATION - Part of a developing scandal where Iranian influence has gotten established in the govt via biden appointees and friends.
***
It’s official. RFK Jr. said Monday he will run for president as an independent and drop his Democratic primary bid, adding a wrinkle to a 2024 race
OBSERVATION - The MSM is trying to paint this as a negative for republicans in order to firewall democrats from crossing over - Kennedy’s most likely demographic support.
Biden / Harris Watch –
After 11 Americans were confirmed dead in Israel, Joe Biden called a lid a 11:32 AM yesterday. He will not be giving a briefing or making any official statements.
Biden did release a statement confirming the deaths
This is unreal. We’ve never had a President who was willing to show hoe much he doesn’t care about American lives. The world is at war and Americans are dying and the President of the United States is taking a nap!
***
Martha MacCallum asked John Kirby if Joe Biden still stands by his comments that “The only existential threat humanity faces even more frightening than a nuclear war is global warming going above 1.5 degrees in the next 20 — 10 years.”
Kirby: “Absolutely he does. Climate change is an existential threat...”
MacCallum: “More frightening than nuclear war?”
Kirby: Yes
OBSERVATION - Un freeking believable with the world going to heck and global warming is the top concern!!!!
Illegal Immigration –
Growing resentment continues to build pressure as pushback rises in blue cities/states over the flood of illegals.
China –
Riding on the outliers of the current chaos is thought that China may be looking to accelerate its plans to take control of Taiwan - especially if the US gets involved in a shooting war with Iran.
North/South Korea –
South Korea Joint Chiefs of Staff - “Prepare for the possibility of a surprise attack by North Korea using Hamas-style tactics”
North Korea news agency says ‘important report’ is imminent. So far this ‘important report’ hasn’t come out.
USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier to enter Busan on Thursday.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Putin at meeting with Iraqi PM says the conflict between Israel and Gaza shows a ‘failure’ in US Middle East policy. And adds: “The damage to the civilian population must be minimized and reduced to zero, and we call on all conflicting parties to do so.”
NUCLEAR THREATS –
The Russian State Duma asks a committee to study the possibility of revoking the ratification of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty within 10 days. More recent reports state that the Russian Foreign Ministry says it is preparing a bill to revoke the ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
NOTE - This is continuing evidence that Russia may once again begin nuclear testing.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 27 of 36 Russian Shahed drones overnight. Drones targeted areas in the Odessa region.
Bakhmut Axis -
Russian forces are reportedly attempting to push north of Adviivka in an attempt to cut off the town. Very little other information available. This could be the largest push by Russian forces on the front since the Ukraine offensive kicked off.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to advance in the Andriyivka region, south of Bakhmut.
OUTLOOK -
Much of the reporting out of Ukraine is swamped by reporting on the Israeli/Hamas war. So far it looks like status quo from recent reports.
ISRAEL –
Breaking this topic down into sections for clarity.
For everyone, here is Netanyahu’s address to Israel and the world -
“Israel is at war. We didn’t want this war. It was forced upon us in the most brutal and savage way. But though Israel didn’t start this war, Israel will finish it.”
“Once, the Jewish people were stateless.
Once, the Jewish people were defenseless.
No longer. “
“Hamas will understand that by attacking us, they have made a mistake of historic proportions. We will exact a price that will be remembered by them and Israel’s other enemies for decades to come. “
“The savage attacks that Hamas perpetrated against innocent Israelis are mindboggling: slaughtering families in their homes, massacring hundreds of young people at an outdoor festival, kidnapping scores of women, children and elderly, even Holocaust survivors. “
“Hamas terrorists bound, burned and executed children.
They are savages.
Hamas is ISIS.”
“And just as the forces of civilization united to defeat ISIS, the forces of civilization must support Israel in defeating Hamas.”
“I want to thank President Biden for his unequivocal support.
I want to thank leaders across the world who are standing with Israel today.
I want to thank the people and Congress of the United States of America. “
“In fighting Hamas, Israel is not only fighting for its own people.
It is fighting for every country that stands against barbarism.”
“Israel will win this war, and when Israel wins, the entire civilized world wins.”
Netanyahu has set the parameters for the future of the conflict in Gaza. There is no turning back as Israel finds itself in a growing fight for its very existence.
***
Interesting view -
“The Hamas attack on Israel meant the end of one of Iran’s major paramilitary assets. The Israeli military is one of the best in the world and did not expect Hamas to self-destruct like this, killing as many Israelis as it could before Hamas was gone and their base in Gaza severely damaged. Iran may have ordered this in an effort to disrupt the recent alliance between Israel and the Gulf oil states against Iran. The Hamas attack was a major intelligence failure for Israel and the Arab neighbors realize that this was an Iranian intelligence victory. If Iran could do this again it would most likely be used against one the Arab states that oppose the expansion of Iranian influence in the region. Expending Hamas to accomplish this attack on Israel reminds Arab states that it could happen to them. Iran is a common enemy or threat to Israel, Arabs and Turks.
https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iran/articles/20231010.aspx
GENERAL ——————————-
Counts of dead / wounded on both sides are high. Up to date numbers changing rapidly. Israel’s military found the bodies of roughly 1,500 Hamas militants near Gaza Strip, Israeli army says — AP
The bodies of over 100 Israeli civilians have been discovered in the settlement of Bari to the East of the Gaza Strip. That means at least 1/10 of the residents of Be’eri were killed. Pre-attack population there was a little over 1k people.
Israel has been hammering Gaza with airstrikes the likes of which not seen since 2008. In recent hours, the number of strikes seem to have dropped. Meanwhile, Hamas has been increasingly unable to fire any substantial numbers of rockets, and those they manage to get in the air are fewer and fewer. Additionally, Israeli army spokesman: states “The Israeli army is in full control of the Gaza Strip envelope, there were no infiltrations tonight” At this point, there are no ongoing incidents in the communities surrounding Gaza. However, it cannot be entirely ruled out that there are no terrorists present in the communities around Gaza, along the roads, and in agricultural areas.
Israeli government approves the Defense Minister’s request to recruit 360,000 soldiers from the reserve forces; up until now 300,000 were recruited
IDF are massing 173,000 troops including 8,000 elite commandos, along with 300 tanks and plenty of heavy weaponry on the border with Gaza in the town of Sderot.A further 360,000 reserve troops have been mobilized as well in the event Hezbollah and Iran become involved.
RUMINT. Russia gave Hamas weapons captured in Ukraine to discredit Kyiv.
Russia has transferred Western-made weapons captured in Ukraine to the extremist organization Hamas fighting against Israel, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) reported on Oct. 9.
Representative for Israel’s Homefront Command on Kan recommended Israeli’s store enough food and water in their bomb shelters to last at least 72 hours. They reminded Israeli’s of the essentials, first aid kit, flashlight, batteries, food, water, etc.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Analysts still anticipating ground assault soon, as little as in the next 24 hours. Moon conditions will be at near new moon (there is an annular solar eclipse on Oct 14), allowing Israel to take advantage of its night vision capabilities and advantage. As noted above, reports are that about 173,000 troops have been amassed along the border of Gaza and are awaiting the final “go” to execute the operation.
Israeli Defense Forces: In recent days, the Israeli army has been instructing the population inside of the Gaza Strip to distance themselves from designated areas. We emphasize that there is no official call by Israel for residents of the Gaza Strip to exit into Egypt
Hamas announces they will execute one hostage live on TV for every airstrike on Gaza. Fake videos of executions were posted to social media, but have been debunked. Hamas hasn’t carried out this threat to anyone’s open knowledge. Hamas says it won’t negotiate on the hostages it has taken from Israel until the “end of the battle”. Between 100 and 150 people are being held in Gaza, Israel estimates
Hamas announces that this Friday is a ‘day of general mobilization in the Arab and Islamic world in solidarity with our people and their resistance’.
Hamas also was begging for a cease fire yesterday. In some statements calling for one they claim that they have attained their ‘objectives’ as justification. Sorry FAFO time.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Sources say Palestinian factions in Lebanon are eager to open a second front against Israel if Hezbollah leads the charge. Hezbollah has stated that their red line is Israel putting boots on the ground in Gaza.
Action is increasing on the northern front. Yesterday, numerous infiltrations were attempted into Israel, all were intercepted. Initial attempts were believed to have been conducted by Hamas affiliated terror groups Hezbollah has allowed to operate in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has announced that 9 its members were killed as a result of Israeli bombing in the southern regions of Lebanon and that they will respond to this according to the “Rules of Deterrence.
12 rockets launched from Southern Lebanon with 11 being Intercepted by Iron Dome batteries. The 1 Rocket was deemed to be not a threat and was allowed to land in a open area near the border. Mortars were also fired from positions in southern Lebanon.
The IDF Homefront Command has ordered Israelis to stay away at least 4 km away from the Lebanese borders as a result of the border skirmishes.
The Lebanese Ministry of Education has announced that all schools in the south of the country will be closed tomorrow due to “Deteriorating Security Conditions.”
The Prime Minister of Lebanon stated the need to avoid confrontation on the border with Israel:
“Lebanon is trying to avoid confrontation on the border, so we are trying to prevent an escalation of tension. The support of fraternal Arab states in this matter is important for Beirut.”
Earlier, the acting Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic, Abdullah Bu Habib, told the Asharq al-Awsat newspaper that the Shiite Hezbollah party promised the government that it would not interfere in the conflict between the Palestinian resistance units and Israel.
Unconfirmed but highly probable. Sources close to Hezbollah are reporting that a full-mobilization of forces in Lebanon has been ordered with many said to be moving towards the border with Northern Israel.
NOTE - Hezbollah’s actions indicate they don’t care what the Lebanese PM says and the openly lied to him.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH———————————-
The United Arab Emirates has reportedly warned the Assad government in Syria not to enter the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Abu Dhabi has also warned Damascus not to allow any attacks against Israel from its soil
Pend confirmation. Hezbollah began mobilizing thousands of fighters on the border. Local journalist in Quneitra reports that Hezbollah’s Radwan Brigade is mobilizing along the Syrian border with Israel.
RUMINT. IDF sources say they will destroy Damascus, target Syrian President Assad if Hezbollah joins war; US warships will support Israel in war. Message relayed via France
WEST BANK——————————-
Mahmoud Abbas has flown out of country and calls for a UN intervention to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.
Consecutive and continuous armed clashes at the West Bank checkpoints. Serious clashes between Palestinian youths armed with Molotov cocktails and Israeli police forces in the Palestinian Issawiya neighborhood in East Jerusalem.
Confrontations erupted between young men and Israeli forces during a security operation in the Dheisheh camp in Bethlehem.
GLOBAL ——————————-
The Rafah crossing in southern Gaza, currently the only way out of the blockaded territory, has been operating this morning - but only for those who had their names listed before the recent fighting.
“Shortly after making the announcement that the European Union was going to terminate 700 million euro financing package for Palestine”, it had to halt plan to due to opposition from Luxembourg, Spain, Ireland, and Denmark.
Austria just froze its aid to Palestinians following the invasion on Israel
biden regime refuses to re-freeze the 6 Billion back to Iran.
In a joint statement, the US, France, Germany, Italy, and UK said they will help Israel ‘defend itself’
After Sydney decided to illuminate the Sydney Opera House in the colors of the Israeli flag, hundreds of Hamas supporters gathered to attack the Opera House with flares & burn Israeli flags
Following pro-Hamas demonstrations across the globe, pro-Israel demonstrations are taking their place.
FORECAST ————————-
The IDF has stated that they now consider the Gaza Strip a “War Zone.” This strongly indicates that the ground war will commence very soon, perhaps as short as within 24 hours.
Hezbollah is still expected to enter the conflict once Israel invades Gaza. Reports of mobilization suggests that full commitment may be days after the Israeli invasion, but that won’t stop them from launching massive missile barrages into Israel.
Lebanese govt is not thrilled with the potential involvement - seeing full well on what Israel has done to Gaza via airstrikes. Hezbollah has made its signature the placement of launchers, ammo dumps and other critical sites next to or in schools, hospitals and mosques. Israel has shown no restraint in hitting such targets this time around.
More of a wild card is Hezbollah attacks from Syria. Russia and Syria have kind of turned their heads over the buildup over the years. Attacks from Syria will draw Israeli counter strikes and could potentially catch Syrian and Russian troops in the blast zones.
Overall, I see some hesitancy by Hezbollah in getting involved. They will be forced into it but this doesn’t seem to be the time they desired.
The greatest question mark is Iran, will they become directly involved. That would cause the conflict to explode into a regional war and draw in other world militaries - the US being in the lead. This is the worst case scenario at this stage.
Iran –
See Israel above on the war.
Iraq -
Hadi Al Ameri, Secretary General of the Iran-backed Badr organization in Iraq threatens that if America intervenes in the Israeli/Gazan conflict, they’ll target all American positions [In Iraq].
OBSERVATION - Iranian backed militias would most definitely act against US forces and agents should Iran become actively engaged in the Hamas/Israeli war. Fact is that they will act even if the US DOESN’T intervene - the feast on weakness of the enemy.
Lebanon -
Govt trying to get Hezbollah to stay out of the conflict with Israel.
Saudi Arabia –
Saudi Arabia has informed the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, that it is “ending all negotiations” on normalizing relations with Israel, reports the Israeli newspaper The Jerusalem Post, echoed by the Saudi media outlet The Saudi Post, published in the United States.
OBSERVATION - Some pundits are indicting that this was Iran’s ultimate goal. Israel and SA were close to reaching an agreement sans Palestine. This is now effectively for the moment has been torpedoed.
Syria -
Unidentified warplanes just bombed an Iran-linked military convoy traveling between Iraq and Syria, near the cities of Al-Qa’im (Iraq) and Al-Bukamal (Syria).
OBSERVATION - Most likely Israel, indicating to Iran/Hezbollah that they are not so focused on Gaza that they cannot observe and react to other threats.
Antifa is pro Hamas? That explains why Democrats, the FBI, DOJ and CIA gave them a pass...
While the Ukraine war has and continues to play a serious role on the global stage, the Hamas/Israel war has exploded in an order of magnitude greater threat to the US as islamic hatred toward the US has lost its release valve and is in full blown rage once again. Combined with the almost instant global effects/impacts and the very imminent threat of a major regional conflict - beyond the contained Ukraine/Russian war.
Economy –
Interest rates on credit cards have risen to their highest levels in decades as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten its monetary policy in an attempt to curb decades-high inflation. The credit card rate has increased to an average of 20.72 percent. In comparison, the average credit card interest rate stood at 14.22 percent in 2018, according to NerdWallet. It was only 12.89 percent in 2017, the data show.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Palestinian Student Group Announces Pro-Hamas ‘Day of Resistance’ Rallies at US College Campuses on Thursday. I suspect these rallies will continue into the weekend. However, with recent revelations of the evil brutality of the terror attack by Hamas, gaining popular support may be difficult.
***
The Hamas/Israel war has generated new alliances. The official Chicago chapter of Black Lives Matter released a graphic of a Hamas paraglider with the text: “I stand with Palestine.” A unit of Hamas militants used paragliders and hang gliders to launch their armed massacre of civilians in southern Israel.
BLM, like Antifa, has long expressed support for Palestinian terrorism in the name of “de-colonialism” and fighting capitalism.
Decolonization is an euphemism for ethnic cleansing - the subtext is “You deserve to be shot or raped, and your children deserve to be beheaded.”
Other leftist groups joining pro-Hamas elements include the New Black Panthers, Young Communist League , Democratic Socialists of America and Party for Socialism and Liberation.
OBSERVATION - Key note on “de-colonialism”. This term has recently (in my notice anyway) come to the forefront and has some origins to the ethinc cleansing developing in South Africa targeting whites. It is also springing from CRT theories of recent. As noted above, it is being used to legitimize current racial violence in the US towards whites and asians. With the genocidal emphasis thrust forth by Hamas against the Jews, the application of this term here in the US is taking an even more sinister turn. Islamic radicals here in the US are renewing their calls for shriah law and death to opponents. BLM is picking up this theme as well against whites.
We are now facing a philosophically reinforced violent ‘alliance’ that could cause things to literally blow apart as the Hamas/Israel war continues and expands. As revealed in recent pro-Hamas marches, there are a lot of people here chanting “Death to America”.
***
Pro-Israeli rallies are growing across the US and could result in confrontations with Antifa supported pro-Hamas counter protestors. With the current level of high emotions, serious violence has the potential to break out.
Terrorism -
Growing fear of spreading Hamas terrorism is not being helped by this kind of announcements.
Hamas Leader Khalid Mashal calls on Muslims worldwide to rise up on Friday.
Benignly appealing as a call to rallies/protests, combined with all the other rhetoric from Hamas that it will place its boot on the necks of the western world, this could also be a ‘go’ signal to terror cells around the world.
***
The number of people on the Terrorist Watchlist caught trying to illegally enter the U.S. through the southern border has skyrocketed since Pres. Joe Biden took office, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) enforcement statistics reveal.
Last updated on September 15, CBP enforcement statistics show that Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 set a record for the number of people on the U.S. government’s terror watchlist caught trying to illegally enter the U.S., hitting 151 with two weeks to spare.
Based on the federal government’s fiscal year (October 1 through September 30), terror watchlist encounters have surged under Biden:
In FY 2017 (eight months under Trump, four months under Obama), there were only two terror watchlist encounters.
In FY 2023 (through Sept. 15), there were 151 terror watchlist encounters – an increase of 7,450% from FY 2017.
FY 2023’s count is more than 50 times higher than the three terror watchist encounters in Trump’s last full fiscal year (FY 2020).
FY 2023 is more than 24 times the combined number of terror watchlist encounters during the four fiscals years FY 2017 through FY 2020 (11).
FY 2023’s 151 terror watchlist encounters exceed the total of 122 for the previous six fiscal years (FY 2017-FY 2022) combined.
OBSERVATION - Not good, not good at all. biden is setting the US up for a major event, especially if things start going sideways in the Hamas / Israel war.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Ford CSG arrived on station off the coast of Israel after a very fast transit of the Med Sea.
***
American Special Operations Forces trained in hostage situations have arrived in Israel. A Pentagon official says the U.S. doesn’t rule out performing operations to liberate kidnapped Americans now held in Gaza
***
USS Dwight D Eisenhower Strike Group will depart from Norfolk in the coming week, in line with its standard deployment schedule Its schedule has plans to conduct exercises in the US EUCOM area in support of enhanced vigilance & ops with NATO allies, according to announcements by the DoD. This suggests that it is going to fill in for the USS Ford’s CSG in the central Med. It would be available for support to the USS Ford if necessary.
POLITICAL FRONT –
One unmistakable metric of how the biden regime has facilitated the attack on Israel -
Iran’s Crude Oil Export Revenue
2020 under Trump ‣ $7.9 billion
2022 under Biden ‣ $42.6 billion
***
Growing pressure from congress to re-freeze the $6 billion in assets the regime recently released as part of its hostage exchange with Iran.
***
Kari Lake formally announced her run for the AZ senate seat. She received Trumps immediate endorsement.
***
House Republicans are expected to hold closed-door meetings and an intra-conference vote to select their candidate for House Speaker vote as early as tomorrow. Leading candidates are Jordan and Scalise. GOP has said they will not bring a Speaker vote to the floor without all 218 members of their conference behind a candidate.
***
Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., called the cops on Michael Hayden Tuesday, accusing the former CIA chief of calling for his “politically motivated assassination.”
***
Congressional Democrats are fearful that their caucus could soon turn on Israel following the initial outpouring of support after Saturday’s Hamas terrorist attacks, Politico reported Tuesday. In March, a Gallup poll found that Democrats’ sentiment toward Israel had significantly changed, with more showing sympathy toward Palestinians by a margin of 49% to 38%. The survey indicated that Democrats’ sympathy toward Palestinians increased by 11 points over the previous year, while sympathy toward Israelis dropped.
Liberal jews in America make up a significant voting block of democrats in key areas. With everything else falling apart, they can ill afford to lose their support or enthusiasm in the 2024 election.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden slurred his words for 10 minutes and then ended his speech abruptly. This after waiting 3 days after the start of the Hamas/Israel war to make any comments. He was 90 minutes late for the press conference to boot. He refused to take any questions and left the room. Unbelievable.
Illegal Immigration –
See Terrorism above.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russia was defeated in its bid to regain a seat in the U.N.’s premiere human rights body by a significant majority in Tuesday’s election in the General Assembly, which voted last year to suspend Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Before the presidential elections in March next year, another mobilization on the territory of Russia is unlikely. The Kremlin will avoid unpopular decisions, and the recent mobilizations have been very unpopular according to British Intelligence sources.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine forces seized terrain west of Robotyne and Klischiyivka and Andriyivka, south of Bakhmut. At Klischiyivka in particular, Ukraine has solidly broken past the Russian’s latest defensive lines along the rail road and now threaten to physically cut off Hwy T-05-13, a critical supply route to Bakhmut.
Bubbling out of the flood of Hamas/Israel news, information has firmed up of one of the largest attacks Russia has been able to put together this year. Russia has been attempting to seize Avdiivka for most of this year and have had numerous catastrophes in the process where several whole brigades have been decimated in prior attacks. Over the past few days Russia has tried again by launching a pincer attack to isolate the town. There were reports posted on this fight, but reliability was sketchy until today (overnight) where more confirmation has been put out.
It appears that this attempt was another failure -bigley. This assessment is generally confirmed because Russian milbloggers are not crowing regarding any success, but are generally silent or critical of the losses. Considering the number of personnel and equipment that were involved, the results are simply disastrous for the enemy. The Russians hoped for a blitzkrieg, the losses in equipment were colossal. Even a Russian Su-25 was shot down over Avdiyivka. This fight is not over yet, but already Russia has lost a lot of potential momentum due to their heavy losses.
OUTLOOK -
No new information other than the old. Ukraine is expected to continue to chisel away on the Tokmok and Bakhumt fronts. Russia may try to increase their efforts to surround Avdiivka, but if the reports of substantial Russian losses are true, they likely do not have the forces available to press the attacks much further.
Europe / NATO General –
The Finnish government said in a statement Tuesday that it located the damaged area of the gas pipe and that it also detected a fault in a communication cable to Estonia. Officials scheduled a news conference for 5:30 p.m. Helsinki time. Finland suspects Russia has attacked its critical infrastructure.
Finland states that things are stable with LNG terminal in Inkoo as a back-up.
We are well prepared, while this is a serious one, it is not a severe incident.
The Russian survey vessel Sibiryakov was conducting “underwater activities” in by the Baltic conector pipeline throughout the summer. There’s now a hole in the pipeline.
News of the incident sent Natural Gas prices higher.
OBSERVATION - This sabotage conducted as the winter season is arriving and Russia’s ilk towards Finland and the Baltic. Russia is likely the culprit. I suspect that other Russian vessels operating near gas pipelines may recieve a lot more attention in the future.
ISRAEL –
Overnight Hamas managed several large missile launches towards Israel. Israel continued its methodical destruction of Hamas et al infrastructure in Gaza. Probable non-Hezbollah (with Hezbollah advisors) launched minimal attacks from Lebanon and Syria. Israel retaliated with mostly artillery and air strikes.
Netanyahu and Gantz agreed to form a national emergency government. Something not done since the 1973 Yon Kippor war.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken is flying to Israel in the coming days in a show of support for the country as it begins a major offensive in Gaza, says State Dept Spox
I don’t have time to pick this apart, but the following link does. In the Before Years, Israel was viewed as having a well armed citizenry - due to near constant threat of terror attacks. Over the years and successful interdiction methods - like the wall isolating Palestinian controlled areas from the rest of Israel, the need to be armed at all times dropped. Add to this the growth of a liberal view towards guns and strict gun control was instituted. It is estimated that only 2% of the population was armed when Hamas hit. Among those who were armed were a few Kibbutzes who quickly rallied against Hamas and managed to protect their residents. Unarmed kibbutzes and towns faced mass slaughter.
GENERAL ——————————-
900+ total deaths in Israel (updated Tuesday)
Palestinian Health - 1,055 dead and 5,148 injured
Foreign nationals killed/missing in Israel:
USA - 14 dead/none (?) missing NOTE: WH spox Sullivan: “We believe that there are 20 or more Americans who at this point are missing, but I want to underscore and stress that does not mean necessarily that there are 20 or more American hostages.”
Canada - 1 dead, 2 missing
UK - 10+ dead or missing
Argentina - 7 dead
France - 4 dead, 13 missing, including a 12-year-old boy
Thailand - 12 dead, 11 missing
Nepal - 10 dead
Germany - 1 dead/many missing
Russia - 1 dead
Italy - 10 abducted, including an infant
Cambodia - 1 dead
China - No deaths/injuries confirmed
Brazil - 3 injured
Paraguay - 2 dead/missing persons
Ukraine - 2 dead
Mexico - 2 kidnapped
Ireland - 1 injured
Tanzania - 2 injured
***
Israel from the start has targeted Hamas et al leadership and has nailed many over the past few day. Recent additions to the hit list include;
* Hamas Leader Abu Ahmad Zakaria Muammer
* Hamas’s Minister of Economy, Jawad Abu Shamala
* Founding leader of Hamas terror organization, Abdul Fattah Dukhan
***
One of the most controversial new reports from yesterday was findings that Hamas murdered & decapitated babies. The bodies of up to 40 dead babies were just found by Israeli forces, some with their heads cut off. Photos have also emerged of Jewish children burned alive by Hamas.
Outlets with direct eyewitnesses in the Kibbutz of Kfar Aza in the south of Israel include:
- Local Israeli news I24
- CBS
- CNN
- Times of London
- French news channel LCI
- UK outlet GB News
Many Hamas apologists immediately went into spin cycle to denounce the reports as propaganda and false. However, given the documented mutilations of Israeli (and other foreign nationals) and the islamic proclivity to behead its victims, the accusation is likely true. It shocks the western mind, but that doesn’t make it untrue.
***
Israel is still encountering small pockets of Hamas terrorists that went to ground when Israel launched their sweeps to regain territories seized by them.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Hamas was able to launch a number of missile barrages overnight, many targeting Sderot, and Ashkelon where a few rockets managed to get past Iron Dome and hit the city, causing casualties. Hamas et al have targeted the Erez crossing in N Gaza with missiles, possibly to try to deny access to Israeli forces.
Israeli army airstrikes continue across Gaza, mostly focused on northern Gaza, though some targeting shifting south as the night progressed.
The siege of Gaza continues with its internal power plants about to shut down due to lack of fuel. Israel cut off power and water yesterday. Ministry of Health in Gaza: All hospital beds, medicines and medical tools are on track to be exhausted.
Jordan and Egypt are coordinating to send aid convoys to Gaza, though Israel has directly threatened that any such convoys approaching Gaza would be bombed.
The World Health Organization calls for access to a humanitarian corridor into Gaza.
The US is working to establish so called “green lanes” to facilitate evacuation of non-combatants from Gaza. This effort may be thwarted by Cairo who reportedly is moving to prevent a mass exodus from Gaza to Sinai according to Reuters, citing two Egyptian security sources.
The Rafah crossing in the Gaza Strip, which is the only land exit to Egypt, has been bombed according to the Washington Post. Israel claims they were targeting an underground tunnel used for smuggling weapons.
So far, Hamas has failed to carry out its threat to start executing hostages and post the videos to the internet.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah claims responsibility for targeting an Israeli site with guided missiles. Skirmishes continued for most of yesterday with IDF targeting Hezbollah shooting positions and observation posts with artillery and air strikes. The IDF also struck Hezbollah hideouts in southern Lebanon
Lebanese News Agency is reporting Israeli bombardment renewed at a more violent pace on the vicinity of border towns, and the sounds of machine guns were heard. Highly subjective.
There is confusion concerning the status of UN peace keeping forces in Lebanon. UNIFIL forces reportedly increased their patrols on the Lebanese-Israeli border. Meanwhile, Hezbollah claims they have been ordered to go back to their bases.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH———————————-
IDF confirms the detection of several mortars fired towards Ramat Makashem area near Tiberias, Israel from Syria, some landed in open areas, no injuries, other fell short in Syria. Israeli army soldiers are responding with artillery and mortar shells toward the origin of the launching in Syria.
Israel also bombed Syrian army positions that were supporting Hama/Hezbollah sites that fired mortars at Israel.
WEST BANK——————————-
One barrage of rockets by Hamas from Gaza hit... Jenin as well as other Palestinian towns.
Fighting continues in west bank areas between Palestinians and Israeli police.
Palestinian militants opened fire on the Kiryat Arba settlement in the city of Hebron, south of the West Bank.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The United Arab Emirates has warned the Assad regime in Syria not to intervene in the war with Hamas, or to allow attacks from Syrian soil. UAE officials have sent their messages to high-level Syrian officials and briefed the Biden administration about their communication with the Syrians.
Turkish President Erdogan on Tuesday accused the United States of planning to “carry out massacres in Gaza” after Hamas terrorists ambushed Israel over the weekend.
If the Americans intervene directly, we are ready to participate in missile bombing and marches.
-Yemeni Houthi Leader
The Greek Navy has reportedly been placed into a heightened state of readiness with the Greek Hydra-Class Frigate “Psara” being deployed alongside the USS Gerald R. Ford and her strike group.
FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to prepare the battlefield for the ground invasion - an action that is imminent. That invasion could trigger greater Hezbollah action. Currently, action on the northern (Lebanon) and Syrian fronts is relatively minimal. Hezbollah seems to be content to try to draw Israeli ground forces in - but Israel is capably dealing with the threats via artillery and air strikes. This could all change very suddenly.
Global public opinion is split in support to hamas and israel. Recent revelations of atrocities against babies has undercut a lot of the ‘victim’ defense of Hamas.
Hamas, Hezbollah and most likely Iran are still stunned by Israel’s resolve. The PR and threats against hostages which have worked in the past to put brakes on Israeli retaliation for their efforts are not working. Even the vicim defense of Hamas is falling to the way side. With the activation of 360,000 reservists - and that number is growing fast as other volunteer and full jets arrive carrying reservists - Israel is set to do just what they said they would do - reshape Gaza for the next 50 years.
Hamas et al will still muster rocket barrages and IAF will continue to rubble Gaza. The dynamic of Israeli ground assault will be the game changer. Israel has had operational plans for such an invasion in the works for years, now the delay is to finalize based on current situation and execute.
Iran –
Khamenei repeatedly denying any direct Iranian role shows he is afraid of broader conflagration. This is in opposition to statements by Hamas and reporting by many news sources stating the opposite.
OBSERVATION - I still suspect that Iran was unprepared far the totality of Israel’s response to the Hamas terror attacks and are trying to put forth a propaganda fig leaf in the event Israel takes its operation home to Iran.
Iraq -
Reports of new threats from Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq threatening attacks on all U.S assets in the region if they support Israel and attack Gaza. Hezbollah and IRGC movements being closely monitored by coalition ISR platforms.
Turkey –
Referring to continued attacks in Syria, President of Turkey Erdoğan stated -
“We will continue the intense air operations we have been carrying out for a while, showing that we will destroy members of the terrorist organization at any time and anywhere.”
Venezuela -
Biden administration and the Venezuelan government are close to a deal that will ease oil and banking sanctions in exchange for guarantees of open elections.
OBSERVATION - There is likely a ‘catch’ in this agreement somewhere.
Black Swans
The Italian government is planning for a possible mass evacuation of tens of thousands of people who live around the Campi Flegrei supervolcano near Naples.
The new measures, which include a scheme to check on the strength of buildings in the area after months of repeated earthquakes, will be discussed at a cabinet meeting on Thursday, a government statement said.
Campi Flegrei (Phlegraean Fields) lies to the west of Naples and is dotted with towns and villages, including Pozzuoli, Agnano and Bacoli, which have a combined population of more than 500,000.
The caldera is dotted with 24 craters and is a much bigger volcano than the nearby Vesuvius, which destroyed the ancient Roman city of Pompeii in AD79.
It has been jolted by more than 1,100 earthquakes in the past month alone, including a 4.0 magnitude quake on Monday and a 4.2 last week – the strongest in the area for four decades.
Experts say the increased seismic activity is probably linked to a phenomenon known as bradyseism, when the earth rises or falls, depending on the cycle, caused by the filling or emptying of underground magma chambers.
There is not an imminent threat of an eruption, most volcanologists say, but with the ground currently rising by 1.5cm (0.59 inches) a month, there is concern about the impact on local buildings.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/05/italy-supervolcano-campi-flegrei-naples-earthquakes-evacuation-plans
I noted the activity here a while back. As the quakes have stepped up, so to has readiness and surveillance. Too early to say if there is an impending eruption and to what size. But it is active and has great potential to launch a big one. Such would impact the entire region and potentially affect global climate by cooling thru blockage of the sun by particles and gasses - worst case.