While the Ukraine war has and continues to play a serious role on the global stage, the Hamas/Israel war has exploded in an order of magnitude greater threat to the US as islamic hatred toward the US has lost its release valve and is in full blown rage once again. Combined with the almost instant global effects/impacts and the very imminent threat of a major regional conflict - beyond the contained Ukraine/Russian war.
Economy –
Interest rates on credit cards have risen to their highest levels in decades as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten its monetary policy in an attempt to curb decades-high inflation. The credit card rate has increased to an average of 20.72 percent. In comparison, the average credit card interest rate stood at 14.22 percent in 2018, according to NerdWallet. It was only 12.89 percent in 2017, the data show.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Palestinian Student Group Announces Pro-Hamas ‘Day of Resistance’ Rallies at US College Campuses on Thursday. I suspect these rallies will continue into the weekend. However, with recent revelations of the evil brutality of the terror attack by Hamas, gaining popular support may be difficult.
***
The Hamas/Israel war has generated new alliances. The official Chicago chapter of Black Lives Matter released a graphic of a Hamas paraglider with the text: “I stand with Palestine.” A unit of Hamas militants used paragliders and hang gliders to launch their armed massacre of civilians in southern Israel.
BLM, like Antifa, has long expressed support for Palestinian terrorism in the name of “de-colonialism” and fighting capitalism.
Decolonization is an euphemism for ethnic cleansing - the subtext is “You deserve to be shot or raped, and your children deserve to be beheaded.”
Other leftist groups joining pro-Hamas elements include the New Black Panthers, Young Communist League , Democratic Socialists of America and Party for Socialism and Liberation.
OBSERVATION - Key note on “de-colonialism”. This term has recently (in my notice anyway) come to the forefront and has some origins to the ethinc cleansing developing in South Africa targeting whites. It is also springing from CRT theories of recent. As noted above, it is being used to legitimize current racial violence in the US towards whites and asians. With the genocidal emphasis thrust forth by Hamas against the Jews, the application of this term here in the US is taking an even more sinister turn. Islamic radicals here in the US are renewing their calls for shriah law and death to opponents. BLM is picking up this theme as well against whites.
We are now facing a philosophically reinforced violent ‘alliance’ that could cause things to literally blow apart as the Hamas/Israel war continues and expands. As revealed in recent pro-Hamas marches, there are a lot of people here chanting “Death to America”.
***
Pro-Israeli rallies are growing across the US and could result in confrontations with Antifa supported pro-Hamas counter protestors. With the current level of high emotions, serious violence has the potential to break out.
Terrorism -
Growing fear of spreading Hamas terrorism is not being helped by this kind of announcements.
Hamas Leader Khalid Mashal calls on Muslims worldwide to rise up on Friday.
Benignly appealing as a call to rallies/protests, combined with all the other rhetoric from Hamas that it will place its boot on the necks of the western world, this could also be a ‘go’ signal to terror cells around the world.
***
The number of people on the Terrorist Watchlist caught trying to illegally enter the U.S. through the southern border has skyrocketed since Pres. Joe Biden took office, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) enforcement statistics reveal.
Last updated on September 15, CBP enforcement statistics show that Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 set a record for the number of people on the U.S. government’s terror watchlist caught trying to illegally enter the U.S., hitting 151 with two weeks to spare.
Based on the federal government’s fiscal year (October 1 through September 30), terror watchlist encounters have surged under Biden:
In FY 2017 (eight months under Trump, four months under Obama), there were only two terror watchlist encounters.
In FY 2023 (through Sept. 15), there were 151 terror watchlist encounters – an increase of 7,450% from FY 2017.
FY 2023’s count is more than 50 times higher than the three terror watchist encounters in Trump’s last full fiscal year (FY 2020).
FY 2023 is more than 24 times the combined number of terror watchlist encounters during the four fiscals years FY 2017 through FY 2020 (11).
FY 2023’s 151 terror watchlist encounters exceed the total of 122 for the previous six fiscal years (FY 2017-FY 2022) combined.
OBSERVATION - Not good, not good at all. biden is setting the US up for a major event, especially if things start going sideways in the Hamas / Israel war.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Ford CSG arrived on station off the coast of Israel after a very fast transit of the Med Sea.
***
American Special Operations Forces trained in hostage situations have arrived in Israel. A Pentagon official says the U.S. doesn’t rule out performing operations to liberate kidnapped Americans now held in Gaza
***
USS Dwight D Eisenhower Strike Group will depart from Norfolk in the coming week, in line with its standard deployment schedule Its schedule has plans to conduct exercises in the US EUCOM area in support of enhanced vigilance & ops with NATO allies, according to announcements by the DoD. This suggests that it is going to fill in for the USS Ford’s CSG in the central Med. It would be available for support to the USS Ford if necessary.
POLITICAL FRONT –
One unmistakable metric of how the biden regime has facilitated the attack on Israel -
Iran’s Crude Oil Export Revenue
2020 under Trump ‣ $7.9 billion
2022 under Biden ‣ $42.6 billion
***
Growing pressure from congress to re-freeze the $6 billion in assets the regime recently released as part of its hostage exchange with Iran.
***
Kari Lake formally announced her run for the AZ senate seat. She received Trumps immediate endorsement.
***
House Republicans are expected to hold closed-door meetings and an intra-conference vote to select their candidate for House Speaker vote as early as tomorrow. Leading candidates are Jordan and Scalise. GOP has said they will not bring a Speaker vote to the floor without all 218 members of their conference behind a candidate.
***
Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., called the cops on Michael Hayden Tuesday, accusing the former CIA chief of calling for his “politically motivated assassination.”
***
Congressional Democrats are fearful that their caucus could soon turn on Israel following the initial outpouring of support after Saturday’s Hamas terrorist attacks, Politico reported Tuesday. In March, a Gallup poll found that Democrats’ sentiment toward Israel had significantly changed, with more showing sympathy toward Palestinians by a margin of 49% to 38%. The survey indicated that Democrats’ sympathy toward Palestinians increased by 11 points over the previous year, while sympathy toward Israelis dropped.
Liberal jews in America make up a significant voting block of democrats in key areas. With everything else falling apart, they can ill afford to lose their support or enthusiasm in the 2024 election.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden slurred his words for 10 minutes and then ended his speech abruptly. This after waiting 3 days after the start of the Hamas/Israel war to make any comments. He was 90 minutes late for the press conference to boot. He refused to take any questions and left the room. Unbelievable.
Illegal Immigration –
See Terrorism above.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russia was defeated in its bid to regain a seat in the U.N.’s premiere human rights body by a significant majority in Tuesday’s election in the General Assembly, which voted last year to suspend Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Before the presidential elections in March next year, another mobilization on the territory of Russia is unlikely. The Kremlin will avoid unpopular decisions, and the recent mobilizations have been very unpopular according to British Intelligence sources.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine forces seized terrain west of Robotyne and Klischiyivka and Andriyivka, south of Bakhmut. At Klischiyivka in particular, Ukraine has solidly broken past the Russian’s latest defensive lines along the rail road and now threaten to physically cut off Hwy T-05-13, a critical supply route to Bakhmut.
Bubbling out of the flood of Hamas/Israel news, information has firmed up of one of the largest attacks Russia has been able to put together this year. Russia has been attempting to seize Avdiivka for most of this year and have had numerous catastrophes in the process where several whole brigades have been decimated in prior attacks. Over the past few days Russia has tried again by launching a pincer attack to isolate the town. There were reports posted on this fight, but reliability was sketchy until today (overnight) where more confirmation has been put out.
It appears that this attempt was another failure -bigley. This assessment is generally confirmed because Russian milbloggers are not crowing regarding any success, but are generally silent or critical of the losses. Considering the number of personnel and equipment that were involved, the results are simply disastrous for the enemy. The Russians hoped for a blitzkrieg, the losses in equipment were colossal. Even a Russian Su-25 was shot down over Avdiyivka. This fight is not over yet, but already Russia has lost a lot of potential momentum due to their heavy losses.
OUTLOOK -
No new information other than the old. Ukraine is expected to continue to chisel away on the Tokmok and Bakhumt fronts. Russia may try to increase their efforts to surround Avdiivka, but if the reports of substantial Russian losses are true, they likely do not have the forces available to press the attacks much further.
Europe / NATO General –
The Finnish government said in a statement Tuesday that it located the damaged area of the gas pipe and that it also detected a fault in a communication cable to Estonia. Officials scheduled a news conference for 5:30 p.m. Helsinki time. Finland suspects Russia has attacked its critical infrastructure.
Finland states that things are stable with LNG terminal in Inkoo as a back-up.
We are well prepared, while this is a serious one, it is not a severe incident.
The Russian survey vessel Sibiryakov was conducting “underwater activities” in by the Baltic conector pipeline throughout the summer. There’s now a hole in the pipeline.
News of the incident sent Natural Gas prices higher.
OBSERVATION - This sabotage conducted as the winter season is arriving and Russia’s ilk towards Finland and the Baltic. Russia is likely the culprit. I suspect that other Russian vessels operating near gas pipelines may recieve a lot more attention in the future.
ISRAEL –
Overnight Hamas managed several large missile launches towards Israel. Israel continued its methodical destruction of Hamas et al infrastructure in Gaza. Probable non-Hezbollah (with Hezbollah advisors) launched minimal attacks from Lebanon and Syria. Israel retaliated with mostly artillery and air strikes.
Netanyahu and Gantz agreed to form a national emergency government. Something not done since the 1973 Yon Kippor war.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken is flying to Israel in the coming days in a show of support for the country as it begins a major offensive in Gaza, says State Dept Spox
I don’t have time to pick this apart, but the following link does. In the Before Years, Israel was viewed as having a well armed citizenry - due to near constant threat of terror attacks. Over the years and successful interdiction methods - like the wall isolating Palestinian controlled areas from the rest of Israel, the need to be armed at all times dropped. Add to this the growth of a liberal view towards guns and strict gun control was instituted. It is estimated that only 2% of the population was armed when Hamas hit. Among those who were armed were a few Kibbutzes who quickly rallied against Hamas and managed to protect their residents. Unarmed kibbutzes and towns faced mass slaughter.
GENERAL ——————————-
900+ total deaths in Israel (updated Tuesday)
Palestinian Health - 1,055 dead and 5,148 injured
Foreign nationals killed/missing in Israel:
USA - 14 dead/none (?) missing NOTE: WH spox Sullivan: “We believe that there are 20 or more Americans who at this point are missing, but I want to underscore and stress that does not mean necessarily that there are 20 or more American hostages.”
Canada - 1 dead, 2 missing
UK - 10+ dead or missing
Argentina - 7 dead
France - 4 dead, 13 missing, including a 12-year-old boy
Thailand - 12 dead, 11 missing
Nepal - 10 dead
Germany - 1 dead/many missing
Russia - 1 dead
Italy - 10 abducted, including an infant
Cambodia - 1 dead
China - No deaths/injuries confirmed
Brazil - 3 injured
Paraguay - 2 dead/missing persons
Ukraine - 2 dead
Mexico - 2 kidnapped
Ireland - 1 injured
Tanzania - 2 injured
***
Israel from the start has targeted Hamas et al leadership and has nailed many over the past few day. Recent additions to the hit list include;
* Hamas Leader Abu Ahmad Zakaria Muammer
* Hamas’s Minister of Economy, Jawad Abu Shamala
* Founding leader of Hamas terror organization, Abdul Fattah Dukhan
***
One of the most controversial new reports from yesterday was findings that Hamas murdered & decapitated babies. The bodies of up to 40 dead babies were just found by Israeli forces, some with their heads cut off. Photos have also emerged of Jewish children burned alive by Hamas.
Outlets with direct eyewitnesses in the Kibbutz of Kfar Aza in the south of Israel include:
- Local Israeli news I24
- CBS
- CNN
- Times of London
- French news channel LCI
- UK outlet GB News
Many Hamas apologists immediately went into spin cycle to denounce the reports as propaganda and false. However, given the documented mutilations of Israeli (and other foreign nationals) and the islamic proclivity to behead its victims, the accusation is likely true. It shocks the western mind, but that doesn’t make it untrue.
***
Israel is still encountering small pockets of Hamas terrorists that went to ground when Israel launched their sweeps to regain territories seized by them.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Hamas was able to launch a number of missile barrages overnight, many targeting Sderot, and Ashkelon where a few rockets managed to get past Iron Dome and hit the city, causing casualties. Hamas et al have targeted the Erez crossing in N Gaza with missiles, possibly to try to deny access to Israeli forces.
Israeli army airstrikes continue across Gaza, mostly focused on northern Gaza, though some targeting shifting south as the night progressed.
The siege of Gaza continues with its internal power plants about to shut down due to lack of fuel. Israel cut off power and water yesterday. Ministry of Health in Gaza: All hospital beds, medicines and medical tools are on track to be exhausted.
Jordan and Egypt are coordinating to send aid convoys to Gaza, though Israel has directly threatened that any such convoys approaching Gaza would be bombed.
The World Health Organization calls for access to a humanitarian corridor into Gaza.
The US is working to establish so called “green lanes” to facilitate evacuation of non-combatants from Gaza. This effort may be thwarted by Cairo who reportedly is moving to prevent a mass exodus from Gaza to Sinai according to Reuters, citing two Egyptian security sources.
The Rafah crossing in the Gaza Strip, which is the only land exit to Egypt, has been bombed according to the Washington Post. Israel claims they were targeting an underground tunnel used for smuggling weapons.
So far, Hamas has failed to carry out its threat to start executing hostages and post the videos to the internet.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah claims responsibility for targeting an Israeli site with guided missiles. Skirmishes continued for most of yesterday with IDF targeting Hezbollah shooting positions and observation posts with artillery and air strikes. The IDF also struck Hezbollah hideouts in southern Lebanon
Lebanese News Agency is reporting Israeli bombardment renewed at a more violent pace on the vicinity of border towns, and the sounds of machine guns were heard. Highly subjective.
There is confusion concerning the status of UN peace keeping forces in Lebanon. UNIFIL forces reportedly increased their patrols on the Lebanese-Israeli border. Meanwhile, Hezbollah claims they have been ordered to go back to their bases.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH———————————-
IDF confirms the detection of several mortars fired towards Ramat Makashem area near Tiberias, Israel from Syria, some landed in open areas, no injuries, other fell short in Syria. Israeli army soldiers are responding with artillery and mortar shells toward the origin of the launching in Syria.
Israel also bombed Syrian army positions that were supporting Hama/Hezbollah sites that fired mortars at Israel.
WEST BANK——————————-
One barrage of rockets by Hamas from Gaza hit... Jenin as well as other Palestinian towns.
Fighting continues in west bank areas between Palestinians and Israeli police.
Palestinian militants opened fire on the Kiryat Arba settlement in the city of Hebron, south of the West Bank.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The United Arab Emirates has warned the Assad regime in Syria not to intervene in the war with Hamas, or to allow attacks from Syrian soil. UAE officials have sent their messages to high-level Syrian officials and briefed the Biden administration about their communication with the Syrians.
Turkish President Erdogan on Tuesday accused the United States of planning to “carry out massacres in Gaza” after Hamas terrorists ambushed Israel over the weekend.
If the Americans intervene directly, we are ready to participate in missile bombing and marches.
-Yemeni Houthi Leader
The Greek Navy has reportedly been placed into a heightened state of readiness with the Greek Hydra-Class Frigate “Psara” being deployed alongside the USS Gerald R. Ford and her strike group.
FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to prepare the battlefield for the ground invasion - an action that is imminent. That invasion could trigger greater Hezbollah action. Currently, action on the northern (Lebanon) and Syrian fronts is relatively minimal. Hezbollah seems to be content to try to draw Israeli ground forces in - but Israel is capably dealing with the threats via artillery and air strikes. This could all change very suddenly.
Global public opinion is split in support to hamas and israel. Recent revelations of atrocities against babies has undercut a lot of the ‘victim’ defense of Hamas.
Hamas, Hezbollah and most likely Iran are still stunned by Israel’s resolve. The PR and threats against hostages which have worked in the past to put brakes on Israeli retaliation for their efforts are not working. Even the vicim defense of Hamas is falling to the way side. With the activation of 360,000 reservists - and that number is growing fast as other volunteer and full jets arrive carrying reservists - Israel is set to do just what they said they would do - reshape Gaza for the next 50 years.
Hamas et al will still muster rocket barrages and IAF will continue to rubble Gaza. The dynamic of Israeli ground assault will be the game changer. Israel has had operational plans for such an invasion in the works for years, now the delay is to finalize based on current situation and execute.
Iran –
Khamenei repeatedly denying any direct Iranian role shows he is afraid of broader conflagration. This is in opposition to statements by Hamas and reporting by many news sources stating the opposite.
OBSERVATION - I still suspect that Iran was unprepared far the totality of Israel’s response to the Hamas terror attacks and are trying to put forth a propaganda fig leaf in the event Israel takes its operation home to Iran.
Iraq -
Reports of new threats from Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq threatening attacks on all U.S assets in the region if they support Israel and attack Gaza. Hezbollah and IRGC movements being closely monitored by coalition ISR platforms.
Turkey –
Referring to continued attacks in Syria, President of Turkey Erdoğan stated -
“We will continue the intense air operations we have been carrying out for a while, showing that we will destroy members of the terrorist organization at any time and anywhere.”
Venezuela -
Biden administration and the Venezuelan government are close to a deal that will ease oil and banking sanctions in exchange for guarantees of open elections.
OBSERVATION - There is likely a ‘catch’ in this agreement somewhere.
Black Swans
The Italian government is planning for a possible mass evacuation of tens of thousands of people who live around the Campi Flegrei supervolcano near Naples.
The new measures, which include a scheme to check on the strength of buildings in the area after months of repeated earthquakes, will be discussed at a cabinet meeting on Thursday, a government statement said.
Campi Flegrei (Phlegraean Fields) lies to the west of Naples and is dotted with towns and villages, including Pozzuoli, Agnano and Bacoli, which have a combined population of more than 500,000.
The caldera is dotted with 24 craters and is a much bigger volcano than the nearby Vesuvius, which destroyed the ancient Roman city of Pompeii in AD79.
It has been jolted by more than 1,100 earthquakes in the past month alone, including a 4.0 magnitude quake on Monday and a 4.2 last week – the strongest in the area for four decades.
Experts say the increased seismic activity is probably linked to a phenomenon known as bradyseism, when the earth rises or falls, depending on the cycle, caused by the filling or emptying of underground magma chambers.
There is not an imminent threat of an eruption, most volcanologists say, but with the ground currently rising by 1.5cm (0.59 inches) a month, there is concern about the impact on local buildings.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/05/italy-supervolcano-campi-flegrei-naples-earthquakes-evacuation-plans
I noted the activity here a while back. As the quakes have stepped up, so to has readiness and surveillance. Too early to say if there is an impending eruption and to what size. But it is active and has great potential to launch a big one. Such would impact the entire region and potentially affect global climate by cooling thru blockage of the sun by particles and gasses - worst case.
Running a little late this morning. Other important things to do.
Globalism / Great Reset –
According to its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicts global inflation to reach 6.9 percent this year, down from 8.7 percent in 2022. For 2024, the organization expects inflation to decline further to 5.8 percent, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than its July ’23 prediction, as core inflation remains stubbornly elevated.
“Near-term inflation expectations have risen and could contribute – along with tight labor markets – to core inflation pressures persisting and requiring higher policy rates than expected,” the IMF finds.
OBSERVATION - Economic destruction via inflation is one component of the globalists “economic reset” as it has such broad impacts. The IMF report IMHO is a smoke screen because it doesn’t factor in all the chaos that has erupted across the globe this year as well as the potential for more hits next year. Keeping people blissfully ignorant.
Economy –
Not good news - again. The Producer Price Index (PPI) measuring costs for finished goods that producers pay – increased more than economists expected yesterday, raising the chances that a second wave of inflation is coming. Higher gasoline prices reportedly accounted for the surge in the PPI. The U.S. Labor Department will release the more closely watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) today.
The core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3 percent, an acceleration from the prior month’s 0.2 percent increase.
Over the past 12 months, the PPI is up 2.2 percent. That’s a big jump from the 1.6 percent annual increase originally recorded in August. The August figure was revised up to show prices had increased two percent, indicating inflation was stronger than previously thought.
Economists had forecast a 1.7 percent annual increase.
OBSERVATION - These increases will likely put pressure on the Fed to at a minimum keep rates where they are or even potentially raise them again. Both actions will result in the erosion of the ability of the economy to eventually sustain its production - driving to a recession.
RELATED - Federal Reserve officials regarded the U.S. economy’s outlook as particularly uncertain last month, according to minutes released Wednesday, and said they would “proceed carefully” in deciding whether to further raise their benchmark interest rate. Such cautious views are generally seen as evidence that the Fed isn’t necessarily inclined to raise rates in the near future.
***
UAW expands its walkouts to include the Ford’s most profitable truck plant in Kentucky. The vehicles built there account for $25 billion a year in revenue, according to Ford. That amounts to one-sixth of the automaker’s global revenue, a Ford source said.
OBSERVATION - The economic ripples from the strike are growing as it expands.
***
In other strike news, talks have broken off between Hollywood actors and studios, killing any hopes that the strike by performers was coming to an end after nearly three months, as the writers strike recently did.
The studios announced that they had suspended contract negotiations late Wednesday night, saying the gap between the two sides was too great to make continuing worth it.
OBSERVATION - Yawn, and America doesn’t notice.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Tides of public opinion have apparently struck hard against protest in support of and endorsing Hamas’ terror tactics against Israel, leaving many progressives to question their affiliation and others scrambling to withdraw their endorsements.
BLM and the DSA have issued statement rejecting earlier endorsements of Hamas.
The radicalized college student are really getting hammered, with one epicenter being Harvard where earlier this week a collection of 30-some progressive groups signed a letter saying Israel was “entirely responsible” for Hamas’ attacks. Key executives and major corporations that hire these Harvard arrogant ignoramuses have put it out very clearly - they will black list any student that signed onto the letter. This has caused law students at Harvard are beginning to really sweat the fact that they might get fired from their first-year associate jobs.
A billboard truck drove through the streets surrounding Harvard’s campus Wednesday, digitally displaying the names and faces of students allegedly affiliated with student groups that signed onto a controversial statement on Hamas’ attack on Israel.
Much of this newly found soul searching by these Harvard students is linked to the doxxing of at least eight of the original 34 co-signing Harvard student groups that as of Wednesday afternoon withdrew their signatures from the statement — originally penned by the Harvard Undergraduate Palestine Solidarity Committee — that called Israel “entirely responsible” for the violence. In a later statement, the PSC wrote that it “staunchly opposes” violence against all civilians.
By Tuesday evening, at least four online sites had listed the personal information of students linked to clubs that had signed onto the statement, including full names, class years, past employment, social media profiles, photos, and hometowns.
Even the reprehensible Rep Ortiz has issued a condemnation of Hamas, swimming upstream of her other “squad” members, especially Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar, the two most prominent terrorist appeasers in Congress.
On the flip side, some of these elements have doubled down in some instances creating a potential rupture on the left between those who’ve realized they have been supporting ruthless, blood thirsty terrorists versus those with hardened, committed ideology to bring Hamas-esque retribution here to America and inflect on their political opponents.
Terrorism -
Hamas’ call for global support / jihad tomorrow is causing a lot of concerns and stress globally as well as here in the US. Called by one of the founding members of the Hamas Politburo, Khalid Mashal, for a worldwide uprising of Muslims in support of Hamas. In this he echos and expands upon Hamas’ leadership in the Gaza Strip’s call for a local uprising called the “Friday of Al-Aqsa flood” which is to include a takeover of the Al-Aqsa Mosque and surroundings in Jerusalem.
New York City was placed on “high alert” Tuesday by New York Mayor Eric Adams, who told law-abiding residents not to “underestimate” the threat from lone-wolf terrorists who have been radicalized by Hamas. Authorities in New York are paying “special attention” to communities of Hasidic Jews in the Big Apple while monitoring social media sites, he said.
The NYPD has ordered all cops to report in uniform starting Friday in anticipation of potential unrest stemming from a call by the former leader of Hamas to stage global demonstrations in support of Palestinians, The NY Post has learned.
“All uniformed members of the service in every rank, will perform duty in the uniform of the day and be prepared for deployment,” read a Wednesday night memo sent to all NYPD members.
Cops will not be granted excusals or shift changes and the order will remain in effect “until further notice,” according to the memo.
NYC has the largest population of Jews outside of Israel as well as a substantial pro-Hamas moslem community who made their support of the blood thirsty attacks on Israeli citizens well known this week.
OBSERVATION - Reaction from threats by islamic radicals like Hamas/Hezbollah have occurred a number of times since 9/11. Apart from some lone wolf episodes (covered by the MSM as ‘no motive found’) they really haven’t resulted in much. However, IMHO this situation is different from in the past. Iran has grown to become a substantial global terror threat - even greater than before -because biden has opened up the money flow again. Combined with the massive global migration into Europe and the illegals coming into the US, the probably of terror cells has grown almost exponentially.
Based on past history, the biggest targets will be jewish related - mostly synagogues - and other gatherings, such as pro-Israel demonstrations. A broader threat emerges after Israel begins its ground invasion of Gaza, with expansion of terror strikes on US infrastructure and other govt entities. See this threat grow even more if US is drawn into a shooting war with Iran.
TAKE NOTE - Under today’s conditions, should terror attacks spread from Israel to the West it will upend world politics in unpredictable ways. Hamas lost its moral high ground due to the atrocities it committed and any terror attacks could turn and make matters worse for them by galvanizing support for Israel.
I encourage everyone who can to get their CCW permit and carry regularly. Not only for this threat, but threats growing from crime in general.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Bataan Amphibious-Ready Group and Marines from the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit have also been reportedly re-deployed from training in Kuwait to the Arabian Sea.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise came out of the closed door session of the republican house caucus as the GOP’s next pick for speaker. His selection still hasn’t solved the Republican’s problem as there are currently enough holdouts to prevent him from getting the majority vote to take the Speakership. Jordan and Gaetz have endorsed him following the vote. 7 Republicans are opposing his selection - when combined with the block voting democrats -will result in another fight for the speakership.
OBSERSATION - Many view him as a continuation of the eGOP and a McCarthy 2.0, an image he has to clean up within the republican caucus to get the votes necessary.
***
A federal judge moved to formally dismiss the gun charge Hunter Biden was initially expected to avoid prosecution on before his plea deal collapsed under scrutiny.
U.S. District Judge Maryellen Noreika accepted the Justice Department’s motion to dismiss the original gun charge because President Joe Biden’s son is now facing a three-count indictment filed last month, according to the order, which was obtained by The Messenger.
OBSERVATION - Two tier justice system at work. But then we knew the fix was in a long time ago.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden confirms he has seen pictures of beheaded Israeli children. This sent the WH into a spin control frenzy, going as far to say he was lying and that he didn’t see any pictures, but was repeating news accounts.
Cyber attacks/warfare –
A hacker has claimed that he has stolen genetic data from millions of users on the DNA ancestry service 23andMe. The company originally stated that they had not been hacked, but they eventually requested that all their users change their passwords immediately. The hacker also claimed that he was willing to sell a million names of individuals with Ashkenazi (Eastern European Jews) lineage. If the hack actually happened, it means that Jewish people are now being identified at the individual level, including personal data and home addresses.
OBSERVATION - I received that email this morning. Laughably, I discontinued 23andMe a couple years ago because after two tries, they said they couldn’t recover any DNA from the samples I submitted. Alas, I’ve been outed as the android I am, LOL. But this does raise concerns over attacks on individuals here and abroad.
Illegal Immigration –
See Terrorism above.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
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Russian mine takes out one of its own ships overnight - See Ukraine below.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 28 of 33 Shahed drones overnight. Targets mostly in the Odesa area, against shipping port facilities. One drone hit Romanian territory. Other drones were engaged over central Ukraine.
Now about three days into the Russian attempt to seize Avdiivka, and it hasn’t been going well for them. It has developed into one of the most massive attacks in months continues along the entire area - from Pervomaiske to Ocheretyane.
Initial Russian losses from the first couple days were heavy: 820 people, 34 tanks and 91 armored vehicles were eliminated. Over night the hits kept coming with an additional 13 artillery pieces, 15 tanks, and 33 IFV/APCs destroyed. Totaled up, this is equivalent to 3 Battalion Tactical Groups wiped out.
Based on the amount of footage of the fight, visible vehicle losses could become the most costly Russian assault since the beginning of the war. Those videos show Russian forces driving directly into Ukrainian minefields, blunting Russian attacks in mass. Survivors often then had to face zeroed in Ukrainian artillery as they tried to escape.
Russia was able to scrape up a lot of artillery support and ammo for this offensive attempt, but it appear it was poorly coordinated with the armor units involved.
Russian Territory –
The Russian patrol ship “Pavel Derzhavin” stuck a Russian mine near Sevastopol today. The explosion has taken the ship out of service after nearly sinking it.
OUTLOOK -
The Russian assault to capture Avdiivka is expected to continue, though analysts are assessing that it no longer has any where near the forces remaining necessary to accomplish the mission. The losses are staggering (Three BTG !!!) and in the near term virtually irreplaceable. Avdiivka, which is near the Russian occupied city of Donetsk, is one of the most heavily fortified sections of the front - having been attacked since 2014 by separatist elements in Donetsk and now Russians.
The losses at Avdiivka are going to ripple all along the fronts. Russia may be forced to laterally redistribute units to the area, weakening its ability to defend Bakhmut and Tokmok. Fighting on those two fronts continue to see Ukraine take more ground.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania’s Defense Ministry announces that another Russian drone struck its territory last night near Plauru, Romania.
OBSERVATION - This is something like the third or fourth Russian drone to have struck the country in the past month. i wonder just how much longer Romania is going to wait until it starts shooting down drones approaching its territory.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Middle East / N. Africa General -
Pakistan –
ISRAEL –
Propaganda and misinformation has pegged the needle over the past days. This is causing me to take even more time to weed through the junk to find credible information. On one item in particular - the reports of beheaded babies found by IDF teams in kibbutzes. Here, the govt of Israel made a smart move - it invited numerous news agencies to accompany the forces with the goal to provide a level of documentation that would be hard to refute. Bottom line - yes, Hamas beheaded babies as well as a host of other atrocities far beyond the initial reports. That level of documentation hasn’t stopped Hamas apologists from trying to refute the evidence, but the news has stripped Hamas of its traditional claim to ‘victim’ status it has relied on in the past to gain international sympathy once Israel retaliates.
Israeli officials refused calls from international aid organizations for a humanitarian break in the current siege of Gaza. They also said humanitarian assistance could resume only after Hamas released all hostages. Latest estimate is that at least 150 hostages were taken into Gaza by Hamas.
GENERAL ——————————-
Yesterday, a great deal of confusion in Northern Israel as a false alert for Hezbollah drones and/or paraglider was issued for the whole region.
Rocket attacks from Gaza continue but are decreasing in numbers and intensity while Israel continues to methodically destroy Hama et al infrastructure and take out key leaders.
Army forces continue to move to designated positions for the kick off of the ground war phase as the Israeli govt moves to a war time unified govt structure.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Gaza lost its power plant due to no more fuel. 3 desalination plants are set to shut down due to no power.
Reuters reports that Egypt has rejected the setting up of safe corridors for refugees fleeing the Gaza Strip. However, Egypt states that the Rafah border crossing is currently open, though with restrictions.
Egypt is now refusing to take Palestinian migrants and tightening border security.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Apart from the false alert yesterday, most of the activity consisted of small skirmishes and some rocket / mortar launches. Israel responded with artillery and air strikes.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH———————————-
IAF struck two airports in Syria overnight - See Syria below. These airports routinely used by Iran to air ship arms and supplies to its bases in Syria.
Also some continued scattered rocket/mortar fire into Israel.
NOTE - Israeli control of the Golan Heights is one of the major defensive feature it obtained from the 1973 war. Prior to that, Syrian forces were able to direct fire onto Israeli positions and settlement in the Jordan valley. They have lost this advantage and instead it has shifted to an Israeli advantage, giving them oversight of approaches to Israel from the Damascus region.
WEST BANK——————————-
Convoys of women and children are beginning to evacuate the west bank. They are being stopped at Jordanian checkpoints.
Reports indicate Jordanian armored vehicles have moved up to the Jordanian border with the West Bank. Jordanian intentions are unclear, but it appears it is a move to secure their border against any spillover effects from the current conflict. This spill over likely to be a flood of refugees.
The Lions’ Den—a WestBank-based Palestinian militia—mobilized supporters to hold marches and engage in small-arms clashes with Israeli security forces. Small arms clashes & marches took place in approximately 19 locations across the West Bank.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The State of Qatar threatened to stop gas supplies to the world if the bombing of Gaza does not stop. Would be an interesting move for Qatar considering its more than 60% of the country’s GDP.
FORECAST ————————-
BULF - Ground offensive still imminent. New moon is this Saturday and Israel may look to its superiority in night vision. Israel is still establishing the battlespace for its invasion of Gaza via air/artillery/naval gunfire. It is assessing the forces needed balanced off those needed to guard against Hezbollah and Iran intervention. It may seem slow in coming to some, but the Israeli govt and military want to make sure there are no other surprises before they commit to what they admit will be a multi month campaign.
Iran and Hezbollah still appear to be trying to avoid jumping into the fray. Again, when Israel kicks off the ground war, Hezbollah will most certainly attack - they have painted themselves into a corner and NOT attacking is no longer an option. Unlike Gaza, the Lebanese civilian population is not very favorable to them, blaming them for much of the economic chaos the country has been experiencing for the past several years. This dissatisfaction is a treasure trove of on the ground informants that Mossad can (and probably has) tapped into for rapid and accurate targeting of Hezbollah facilities.
A Hezbollah attack will be centered on massive rocket attacks. Any ground action will be largely defensive, as in 2008, trying to draw Israel into kill zones. Israel learned that lesson the hard way and likely won’t play, unless they set up battlefield conditions favorable to them. Actual invasion of Israel by Hezbollah would be limited to small infiltration teams designed to act much like Hamas, attacking relatively unprotected civilians in towns and villages near the border.
Iran –
Biden administration officials said they are leaving the door open to refreezing $6 billion in Iran oil revenue previously unfrozen as part of a prisoner swap deal in September after bipartisan calls to take the money back. Seeing the massive blowback on this obvious ransom for hostages they are trying to cover their rear ends. However, they are flapping in the breeze with their “not a single dollar” from this money has been spent claim and ignoring that money is fungible.
Lebanon -
Iran foreign minister will visit Lebanon in his regional tour to meet officials on the developments in Palestine. Iranian ambassador to Beirut confirmed Iranian FM’s visit to Lebanon
Syria -
Israeli bombed targets at the Damascus and Aleppo airports, taking them out of service. Eexplosions were heard in the Al-Waer neighborhood in the city of Homs.
OBSERVATION - Israel preparing the battlefield for the potential engagement by Iran and Hezbollah from Syria. They have hit ground convoys earlier this week, now looking to interdict and deny air resupply.