Running a little late this morning. Other important things to do.
Globalism / Great Reset –
According to its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicts global inflation to reach 6.9 percent this year, down from 8.7 percent in 2022. For 2024, the organization expects inflation to decline further to 5.8 percent, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than its July ’23 prediction, as core inflation remains stubbornly elevated.
“Near-term inflation expectations have risen and could contribute – along with tight labor markets – to core inflation pressures persisting and requiring higher policy rates than expected,” the IMF finds.
OBSERVATION - Economic destruction via inflation is one component of the globalists “economic reset” as it has such broad impacts. The IMF report IMHO is a smoke screen because it doesn’t factor in all the chaos that has erupted across the globe this year as well as the potential for more hits next year. Keeping people blissfully ignorant.
Economy –
Not good news - again. The Producer Price Index (PPI) measuring costs for finished goods that producers pay – increased more than economists expected yesterday, raising the chances that a second wave of inflation is coming. Higher gasoline prices reportedly accounted for the surge in the PPI. The U.S. Labor Department will release the more closely watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) today.
The core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3 percent, an acceleration from the prior month’s 0.2 percent increase.
Over the past 12 months, the PPI is up 2.2 percent. That’s a big jump from the 1.6 percent annual increase originally recorded in August. The August figure was revised up to show prices had increased two percent, indicating inflation was stronger than previously thought.
Economists had forecast a 1.7 percent annual increase.
OBSERVATION - These increases will likely put pressure on the Fed to at a minimum keep rates where they are or even potentially raise them again. Both actions will result in the erosion of the ability of the economy to eventually sustain its production - driving to a recession.
RELATED - Federal Reserve officials regarded the U.S. economy’s outlook as particularly uncertain last month, according to minutes released Wednesday, and said they would “proceed carefully” in deciding whether to further raise their benchmark interest rate. Such cautious views are generally seen as evidence that the Fed isn’t necessarily inclined to raise rates in the near future.
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UAW expands its walkouts to include the Ford’s most profitable truck plant in Kentucky. The vehicles built there account for $25 billion a year in revenue, according to Ford. That amounts to one-sixth of the automaker’s global revenue, a Ford source said.
OBSERVATION - The economic ripples from the strike are growing as it expands.
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In other strike news, talks have broken off between Hollywood actors and studios, killing any hopes that the strike by performers was coming to an end after nearly three months, as the writers strike recently did.
The studios announced that they had suspended contract negotiations late Wednesday night, saying the gap between the two sides was too great to make continuing worth it.
OBSERVATION - Yawn, and America doesn’t notice.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Tides of public opinion have apparently struck hard against protest in support of and endorsing Hamas’ terror tactics against Israel, leaving many progressives to question their affiliation and others scrambling to withdraw their endorsements.
BLM and the DSA have issued statement rejecting earlier endorsements of Hamas.
The radicalized college student are really getting hammered, with one epicenter being Harvard where earlier this week a collection of 30-some progressive groups signed a letter saying Israel was “entirely responsible” for Hamas’ attacks. Key executives and major corporations that hire these Harvard arrogant ignoramuses have put it out very clearly - they will black list any student that signed onto the letter. This has caused law students at Harvard are beginning to really sweat the fact that they might get fired from their first-year associate jobs.
A billboard truck drove through the streets surrounding Harvard’s campus Wednesday, digitally displaying the names and faces of students allegedly affiliated with student groups that signed onto a controversial statement on Hamas’ attack on Israel.
Much of this newly found soul searching by these Harvard students is linked to the doxxing of at least eight of the original 34 co-signing Harvard student groups that as of Wednesday afternoon withdrew their signatures from the statement — originally penned by the Harvard Undergraduate Palestine Solidarity Committee — that called Israel “entirely responsible” for the violence. In a later statement, the PSC wrote that it “staunchly opposes” violence against all civilians.
By Tuesday evening, at least four online sites had listed the personal information of students linked to clubs that had signed onto the statement, including full names, class years, past employment, social media profiles, photos, and hometowns.
Even the reprehensible Rep Ortiz has issued a condemnation of Hamas, swimming upstream of her other “squad” members, especially Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar, the two most prominent terrorist appeasers in Congress.
On the flip side, some of these elements have doubled down in some instances creating a potential rupture on the left between those who’ve realized they have been supporting ruthless, blood thirsty terrorists versus those with hardened, committed ideology to bring Hamas-esque retribution here to America and inflect on their political opponents.
Terrorism -
Hamas’ call for global support / jihad tomorrow is causing a lot of concerns and stress globally as well as here in the US. Called by one of the founding members of the Hamas Politburo, Khalid Mashal, for a worldwide uprising of Muslims in support of Hamas. In this he echos and expands upon Hamas’ leadership in the Gaza Strip’s call for a local uprising called the “Friday of Al-Aqsa flood” which is to include a takeover of the Al-Aqsa Mosque and surroundings in Jerusalem.
New York City was placed on “high alert” Tuesday by New York Mayor Eric Adams, who told law-abiding residents not to “underestimate” the threat from lone-wolf terrorists who have been radicalized by Hamas. Authorities in New York are paying “special attention” to communities of Hasidic Jews in the Big Apple while monitoring social media sites, he said.
The NYPD has ordered all cops to report in uniform starting Friday in anticipation of potential unrest stemming from a call by the former leader of Hamas to stage global demonstrations in support of Palestinians, The NY Post has learned.
“All uniformed members of the service in every rank, will perform duty in the uniform of the day and be prepared for deployment,” read a Wednesday night memo sent to all NYPD members.
Cops will not be granted excusals or shift changes and the order will remain in effect “until further notice,” according to the memo.
NYC has the largest population of Jews outside of Israel as well as a substantial pro-Hamas moslem community who made their support of the blood thirsty attacks on Israeli citizens well known this week.
OBSERVATION - Reaction from threats by islamic radicals like Hamas/Hezbollah have occurred a number of times since 9/11. Apart from some lone wolf episodes (covered by the MSM as ‘no motive found’) they really haven’t resulted in much. However, IMHO this situation is different from in the past. Iran has grown to become a substantial global terror threat - even greater than before -because biden has opened up the money flow again. Combined with the massive global migration into Europe and the illegals coming into the US, the probably of terror cells has grown almost exponentially.
Based on past history, the biggest targets will be jewish related - mostly synagogues - and other gatherings, such as pro-Israel demonstrations. A broader threat emerges after Israel begins its ground invasion of Gaza, with expansion of terror strikes on US infrastructure and other govt entities. See this threat grow even more if US is drawn into a shooting war with Iran.
TAKE NOTE - Under today’s conditions, should terror attacks spread from Israel to the West it will upend world politics in unpredictable ways. Hamas lost its moral high ground due to the atrocities it committed and any terror attacks could turn and make matters worse for them by galvanizing support for Israel.
I encourage everyone who can to get their CCW permit and carry regularly. Not only for this threat, but threats growing from crime in general.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Bataan Amphibious-Ready Group and Marines from the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit have also been reportedly re-deployed from training in Kuwait to the Arabian Sea.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise came out of the closed door session of the republican house caucus as the GOP’s next pick for speaker. His selection still hasn’t solved the Republican’s problem as there are currently enough holdouts to prevent him from getting the majority vote to take the Speakership. Jordan and Gaetz have endorsed him following the vote. 7 Republicans are opposing his selection - when combined with the block voting democrats -will result in another fight for the speakership.
OBSERSATION - Many view him as a continuation of the eGOP and a McCarthy 2.0, an image he has to clean up within the republican caucus to get the votes necessary.
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A federal judge moved to formally dismiss the gun charge Hunter Biden was initially expected to avoid prosecution on before his plea deal collapsed under scrutiny.
U.S. District Judge Maryellen Noreika accepted the Justice Department’s motion to dismiss the original gun charge because President Joe Biden’s son is now facing a three-count indictment filed last month, according to the order, which was obtained by The Messenger.
OBSERVATION - Two tier justice system at work. But then we knew the fix was in a long time ago.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden confirms he has seen pictures of beheaded Israeli children. This sent the WH into a spin control frenzy, going as far to say he was lying and that he didn’t see any pictures, but was repeating news accounts.
Cyber attacks/warfare –
A hacker has claimed that he has stolen genetic data from millions of users on the DNA ancestry service 23andMe. The company originally stated that they had not been hacked, but they eventually requested that all their users change their passwords immediately. The hacker also claimed that he was willing to sell a million names of individuals with Ashkenazi (Eastern European Jews) lineage. If the hack actually happened, it means that Jewish people are now being identified at the individual level, including personal data and home addresses.
OBSERVATION - I received that email this morning. Laughably, I discontinued 23andMe a couple years ago because after two tries, they said they couldn’t recover any DNA from the samples I submitted. Alas, I’ve been outed as the android I am, LOL. But this does raise concerns over attacks on individuals here and abroad.
Illegal Immigration –
See Terrorism above.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
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Russian mine takes out one of its own ships overnight - See Ukraine below.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 28 of 33 Shahed drones overnight. Targets mostly in the Odesa area, against shipping port facilities. One drone hit Romanian territory. Other drones were engaged over central Ukraine.
Now about three days into the Russian attempt to seize Avdiivka, and it hasn’t been going well for them. It has developed into one of the most massive attacks in months continues along the entire area - from Pervomaiske to Ocheretyane.
Initial Russian losses from the first couple days were heavy: 820 people, 34 tanks and 91 armored vehicles were eliminated. Over night the hits kept coming with an additional 13 artillery pieces, 15 tanks, and 33 IFV/APCs destroyed. Totaled up, this is equivalent to 3 Battalion Tactical Groups wiped out.
Based on the amount of footage of the fight, visible vehicle losses could become the most costly Russian assault since the beginning of the war. Those videos show Russian forces driving directly into Ukrainian minefields, blunting Russian attacks in mass. Survivors often then had to face zeroed in Ukrainian artillery as they tried to escape.
Russia was able to scrape up a lot of artillery support and ammo for this offensive attempt, but it appear it was poorly coordinated with the armor units involved.
Russian Territory –
The Russian patrol ship “Pavel Derzhavin” stuck a Russian mine near Sevastopol today. The explosion has taken the ship out of service after nearly sinking it.
OUTLOOK -
The Russian assault to capture Avdiivka is expected to continue, though analysts are assessing that it no longer has any where near the forces remaining necessary to accomplish the mission. The losses are staggering (Three BTG !!!) and in the near term virtually irreplaceable. Avdiivka, which is near the Russian occupied city of Donetsk, is one of the most heavily fortified sections of the front - having been attacked since 2014 by separatist elements in Donetsk and now Russians.
The losses at Avdiivka are going to ripple all along the fronts. Russia may be forced to laterally redistribute units to the area, weakening its ability to defend Bakhmut and Tokmok. Fighting on those two fronts continue to see Ukraine take more ground.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania’s Defense Ministry announces that another Russian drone struck its territory last night near Plauru, Romania.
OBSERVATION - This is something like the third or fourth Russian drone to have struck the country in the past month. i wonder just how much longer Romania is going to wait until it starts shooting down drones approaching its territory.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Middle East / N. Africa General -
Pakistan –
ISRAEL –
Propaganda and misinformation has pegged the needle over the past days. This is causing me to take even more time to weed through the junk to find credible information. On one item in particular - the reports of beheaded babies found by IDF teams in kibbutzes. Here, the govt of Israel made a smart move - it invited numerous news agencies to accompany the forces with the goal to provide a level of documentation that would be hard to refute. Bottom line - yes, Hamas beheaded babies as well as a host of other atrocities far beyond the initial reports. That level of documentation hasn’t stopped Hamas apologists from trying to refute the evidence, but the news has stripped Hamas of its traditional claim to ‘victim’ status it has relied on in the past to gain international sympathy once Israel retaliates.
Israeli officials refused calls from international aid organizations for a humanitarian break in the current siege of Gaza. They also said humanitarian assistance could resume only after Hamas released all hostages. Latest estimate is that at least 150 hostages were taken into Gaza by Hamas.
GENERAL ——————————-
Yesterday, a great deal of confusion in Northern Israel as a false alert for Hezbollah drones and/or paraglider was issued for the whole region.
Rocket attacks from Gaza continue but are decreasing in numbers and intensity while Israel continues to methodically destroy Hama et al infrastructure and take out key leaders.
Army forces continue to move to designated positions for the kick off of the ground war phase as the Israeli govt moves to a war time unified govt structure.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Gaza lost its power plant due to no more fuel. 3 desalination plants are set to shut down due to no power.
Reuters reports that Egypt has rejected the setting up of safe corridors for refugees fleeing the Gaza Strip. However, Egypt states that the Rafah border crossing is currently open, though with restrictions.
Egypt is now refusing to take Palestinian migrants and tightening border security.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Apart from the false alert yesterday, most of the activity consisted of small skirmishes and some rocket / mortar launches. Israel responded with artillery and air strikes.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH———————————-
IAF struck two airports in Syria overnight - See Syria below. These airports routinely used by Iran to air ship arms and supplies to its bases in Syria.
Also some continued scattered rocket/mortar fire into Israel.
NOTE - Israeli control of the Golan Heights is one of the major defensive feature it obtained from the 1973 war. Prior to that, Syrian forces were able to direct fire onto Israeli positions and settlement in the Jordan valley. They have lost this advantage and instead it has shifted to an Israeli advantage, giving them oversight of approaches to Israel from the Damascus region.
WEST BANK——————————-
Convoys of women and children are beginning to evacuate the west bank. They are being stopped at Jordanian checkpoints.
Reports indicate Jordanian armored vehicles have moved up to the Jordanian border with the West Bank. Jordanian intentions are unclear, but it appears it is a move to secure their border against any spillover effects from the current conflict. This spill over likely to be a flood of refugees.
The Lions’ Den—a WestBank-based Palestinian militia—mobilized supporters to hold marches and engage in small-arms clashes with Israeli security forces. Small arms clashes & marches took place in approximately 19 locations across the West Bank.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The State of Qatar threatened to stop gas supplies to the world if the bombing of Gaza does not stop. Would be an interesting move for Qatar considering its more than 60% of the country’s GDP.
FORECAST ————————-
BULF - Ground offensive still imminent. New moon is this Saturday and Israel may look to its superiority in night vision. Israel is still establishing the battlespace for its invasion of Gaza via air/artillery/naval gunfire. It is assessing the forces needed balanced off those needed to guard against Hezbollah and Iran intervention. It may seem slow in coming to some, but the Israeli govt and military want to make sure there are no other surprises before they commit to what they admit will be a multi month campaign.
Iran and Hezbollah still appear to be trying to avoid jumping into the fray. Again, when Israel kicks off the ground war, Hezbollah will most certainly attack - they have painted themselves into a corner and NOT attacking is no longer an option. Unlike Gaza, the Lebanese civilian population is not very favorable to them, blaming them for much of the economic chaos the country has been experiencing for the past several years. This dissatisfaction is a treasure trove of on the ground informants that Mossad can (and probably has) tapped into for rapid and accurate targeting of Hezbollah facilities.
A Hezbollah attack will be centered on massive rocket attacks. Any ground action will be largely defensive, as in 2008, trying to draw Israel into kill zones. Israel learned that lesson the hard way and likely won’t play, unless they set up battlefield conditions favorable to them. Actual invasion of Israel by Hezbollah would be limited to small infiltration teams designed to act much like Hamas, attacking relatively unprotected civilians in towns and villages near the border.
Iran –
Biden administration officials said they are leaving the door open to refreezing $6 billion in Iran oil revenue previously unfrozen as part of a prisoner swap deal in September after bipartisan calls to take the money back. Seeing the massive blowback on this obvious ransom for hostages they are trying to cover their rear ends. However, they are flapping in the breeze with their “not a single dollar” from this money has been spent claim and ignoring that money is fungible.
Lebanon -
Iran foreign minister will visit Lebanon in his regional tour to meet officials on the developments in Palestine. Iranian ambassador to Beirut confirmed Iranian FM’s visit to Lebanon
Syria -
Israeli bombed targets at the Damascus and Aleppo airports, taking them out of service. Eexplosions were heard in the Al-Waer neighborhood in the city of Homs.
OBSERVATION - Israel preparing the battlefield for the potential engagement by Iran and Hezbollah from Syria. They have hit ground convoys earlier this week, now looking to interdict and deny air resupply.
Tomorrow’s post may be abbreviated as I’ll be headed out of town early. Focused mainly on the Hamas/Israel war and secondary events related.
Economy –
The United Auto Workers (UAW) Union said 1,100 members in three states who work for General Dynamics voted by a 97% margin to authorize a strike when their contract ends on 22 October.
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Economic analysts are all over the board, gazing into the tea leaves trying to predict the impacts of the hamas/Israel and Ukraine/Russian wars on top of all the other economic issues globally. To me, this captures the unsettled and volatile condition of the global economy.
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Minnesota has been hit with a devastating bird flu outbreak as the state prepares to provide much of the nation with turkeys for Thanksgiving.
On Wednesday, officials announced Minnesota’s first major outbreak of bird flu in 2023. Minnesota is America’s largest producer of turkeys. State officials said Wednesday that a flock of 140,000 turkeys was killed at a Meeker County farm.
OBSERVATION - The US pulled out of an extended bird flu epidemic that deviated poultry farm for nearly two years. Winter is commonly flu season and hopefully officials can get this outbreak contained. However, looks like turkey prices will rise with these flu induced shortages.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
NOTE - This section and Terrorism are kind of blending at this hour as both are cross relating due to Pro-hamas activities supported by Antifa/BLM.
I have stated here that the left has been searching for a unifying cause to rally its forces and it clearly appears that the Hamas/Israeli war has handed that cause to them coalescing around “decolonization.” Considering that the hot portion of the war will likely last for potentially months, with the aftermath lasting for considerably longer, there will be plenty to offer for these violence prone factions. Further inflammatory factors will include potential economic stress from a recession, war in Ukraine and political turmoil from the 2024 election cycle.
Time will tell if this fuse is the one that lights the big firestorms in a manner that 2020 riots hit. However, now nearly 4 years down the road and a very energized moslem component has all the potential of causing riots and destruction that could exceed 2020.
See announced weekend protest locations under “Terrorism”
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Andy Ngo notes “The academics, activists, leftists, communists, anarchists, socialists, etc., who are currently praising the terrorist actions of Hamas in Israel are the same people who praised (or participated in) the domestic terrorist attacks in the U.S. during the 2020 BLM-Antifa riots.”
OBSERVATION - It is looking more and more like the leftists have found their issue to gather support for rioting over the next 14 months.
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As I noted yesterday, Black Lives Matter (BLM) and Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) organizations published statements supporting Palestinians, Hamas, and “decolonization,” which has put them at odds with the broader Democratic political coalition and pushed the center left to distance itself from these far left groups and movements. Some instances saw some BLM and DSA elements backpedal fiercely, while in other instances they doubled down. This could strip some support from the far left if things start to go sideways in the next few months.
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Noah’s Ark Bakery and Temple Beth Israel synagogue were smashed up in Fresno, Calif. on Oct. 10. A note left behind at the bakery stated: “All Jewish businesses will be targeted.” Orlando Javier Ramirez, a 30-year-old Latino, was arrested for the crime.
Terrorism -
Today is the “International day of Jihad” that has caused some to enter panic mode across the globe. Expect protests and opportunistic terrorist / violent activity are likely. It is prudent to exercise extra situation awareness, especially in locations where these pro-Hamas rallies have already been held or are scheduled to be held (see below). Lone wolf attacks are also a high possibility. For example one teacher in France was knifed by an arab overnight and killed. See also vandalism in Fresno CA above under CW2.
Current announced protests to be held -
Chicago, IL; Eugene, OR; Greensboro, NC; Miami, FL; New York, NY; Orlando, FL; Tampa, FL; Buffalo, NY; Washington D.C.; Atlanta, GA; Detroit, MI; Houston, TX; Jacksonville, FL; Los Angeles, CA; Nashville, TN; Orlando, FL; New Orleans, LA; Hollywood Beach, FL; Minneapolis, MN; Nashville, TN
US intel/security agencies say they - “do not at present have any specific & credible intelligence that would indicate any potential threat to the US stemming from Hamas terrorist attacks in Israel at this time”
More pro-Hamas rallies are expected at numerous university campuses across the nation. In some instances, pro-Hamas rallies off campus are being ‘secured’ by Antifa et al forces in black bloc.
IN RELATED, Israeli billionaire Idan Ofer quits Harvard board, blasts university’s president over Hamas student letter. Other major donors to Harvard are closing up their wallets in protest of Harvard’s endorsement of the pro-Hamas causes.
Wall Street CEO Marc Rowan is calling for the leaders of the University of Pennsylvania to resign and donors to close their checkbooks over an alleged failure to condemn antisemitism and hate.
Rowan, the CEO of private equity giant Apollo Global Management, wrote in an op-ed posted online Wednesday that UPenn failed to condemn an event held on campus last month that the university acknowledged included speakers with a history of making antisemitic remarks.
“Why is UPenn repeating tragic mistakes of the past? Words of hate and violence must be met with clear, reasoned condemnation, rooted in morality from those in positions of authority,” Rowan wrote.
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Across the country, local police departments are also preparing for a worst-case scenario.
The U.S. Capitol Police enhanced security in Washington following the call to action from Hamas leaders. While there are no specific threats to Congress, police said in a statement, “We are not taking any chances.”
New York City is home to 1.9 million of the country’s 7.5 million Jewish people. The city’s Democratic mayor, Eric Adams, a former New York Police Department officer himself, said all 36,000 NYPD officers are required to report in uniform Friday.
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The Southern Poverty Law Center is silent in the face of Hamas terror and so far has not added them to their terror lists.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Two B-1s arrived at RAF Fairford yesterday. From this base, they can reach targets in the Middle East relatively quickly, should the need arise.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Rep. Steve Scalise is withdrawing from the race for Speaker of the House after failing to gain support from enough republicans to win the majority in the house vote. Rep Jordan has emerged to be the new candidate and unconfirmed reports has enough republican support to over come democrat opposition.
Illegal Immigration –
To add insult to injury, the biden administration may soon be providing free medical services, food and even housing to the 5.7 million of illegals that they’ve allowed into the country. Folks, our homeless citizens are not getting that level of social hand outs.
MORE crap from the regime. The Biden administration released a statement Thursday warning financial institutions against using a person’s immigration status in credit applications.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) released a joint statement telling financial institutions that while it is not illegal to consider a person’s immigration status in the decision on whether to lend money, an overreliance on it could run afoul of the law, according to the statement. The statement implicates the Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA), which makes it illegal to discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex and more in considering a person’s credit application as the mechanism, even though the law does list citizenship status as a protected attribute.
Right, lets overload our banks will loans that will not be paid back by these illegals who will take the money and run.
China –
Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen and the Democratic People’s Party of Taiwan are leaning more towards independence stances from China, actions that are agitating Chinese leadership. Taiwan’s January election is seen as a critical milestone in the China / Taiwan standoff and if it goes against Chinese supported candidates, could drive it to begin aggressive measures - most likely at this time being a blockade of the island.
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Analysts are assessing that China will have three operational aircraft carrier by the end of the year. This would extend China’s capabilities to establish and maintain a blockade of the island.
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(Bloomberg) — China is scouring the globe for wheat, with annual imports on track to hit record levels, as buyers scoop up cheap supplies after heavy rains damaged the domestic crop.
OBSERVATION - China has had major harvests of grain crops damaged every year for the past 4 - 5 years. This is placing additional economic burden on the country to keep its 1 billion plus population fed.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
More Russian counterattacks, now in the Robotyne area. Having no success and a lot of losses - see below
More Russian drone attacks on ports in the Odesa region. Ukraine striking deep targets in the occupied southern regions and potential hunter/killer sea borne drone attacks in the Black Sea.
Tokmak Axis -.
Russia assault southwest of Robotyne was reportedly turned back with an estimated loss of 42 tanks and 44 APCs.
Velyka Novosilka Axis-
Loud explosions were reported in Mariupol and Melitopol.
Crimean front —
Smoke from Russian Buyan-class corvette seen after explosion near Sevastopol. No word yet as to the cause.
OUTLOOK -
The Russian counter attack in the Robotyne area appears to be facing the same mega defeat as the fight at Avdiivka - massive losses of tanks, armor and men (2 BTGs?). Interestingly, these offensive actions almost appear to have been timed to kick off with the Hamas attack on Israel Saturday. Losses in these two battles will severely harm any future attempts by Russia to try to seize the initiative once the fall rains hit and Ukraine is forced to slow down its actions.
Expected dogged Russian counterattacks to continue in those two areas.
The suspected Ukraine hit on another Russian ship (still pending verification) follows announcements that Ukraine has stepped up hunting Russian warships in the Black Sea west of Crimea.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight observations
* The Israeli is preparing for a ground entry into the Gaza Strip; they are primarily waiting for approval from the political level. The main object is the disarmament of the Gaza Strip.
* The Israeli town of Sderot and other communities around Gaza are to be evacuated ASAP.
* Rocket fire from Gaza has reduced, initial belief is that some are being kept in reserve due to the impending ground invasion. Since Saturday, 6000+ rockets are believed to have been fired into Israel.
* Small arms clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces increased slightly across the WestBank, as Palestinian militias try to stoke conflict there.
* Unidentified Iranian officials implicitly threatened to direct proxy attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria if the United States re-freezes Iranian financial assets abroad. Those assets, $6 Billion, were refrozen overnight.
GENERAL ——————————-
The PR campaigns from both sides have been almost as furious as the physical combat. Hamas is still trying to deflect criticism from the atrocities it committed last Saturday and replay the victim card. Seemingly internal bickering in various MSM groups over coverage that is breaking the normal depiction of Israel as being evil.
The spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council, John Kirby, says the number of Americans killed as a result of the Hamas attack has risen to 27. Another 14 Americans still remain unaccounted for.
Thousands of Israelis reservists continue to fly into country and prepare for war. Total number of reserves now appears to exceed 400,000.
Foreign ministers of Canada, Italy and Germany, as well as the US Secretary of Defense, are set to visit Israel today.
Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades leader in Gaza, Sami al-Abd al-Hassani, was eliminated in an IDF airstrike in al-Shati camp, the terror group confirms.
More information coming out regarding how Hamas succeeded in planning for Saturday’s attack. Evidence that they began planning a little over a year ago and coordinated much of their work face-to-face. They also reportedly used most of the workers permits to work in Israel from Gaza to get spies out of Gaza - explaining the detailed maps of Israeli force deployments and town/kibitzes. Israeli intelligence the night before the Hamas attack picked up signs of irregular activity among Hamas operatives in Gaza but top IDF and Shin Bet leaders decided not to put military forces on the borders of the enclave on high alert.
Hamas then hit a highly coordinated time line, with the rocket barrages (and accompanying explosions) providing cover for teams to breach the border fence as well as take out the plethora of border cameras and other monitoring devices and Israeli bases. Blinded, Israel made a wrong assumption that this was just a diversionary attack covering for the much more anticipated attack out of Lebanon by Hezbollah. Israel sent its rapid response special ops north, leaving villages around Gaza mostly unprotected. Israel had believed that Hamas would not conduct such an attack.
Hamas is now trying to distance itself from Gaza’s by tossing them under the bus. Number 2 in Hamas, Saleh al-Arouri, interviewed on Al-Jazeera, defensively claims Hamas didn’t mean to harm civilians. He blames GAZA CIVILIANS for following Hamas in and kidnapping Israelis. it has been documented that Gazans followed the Hamas assault elements, but their actions were that of looting. Hamas itself documented that they committed the atrocities, not others.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF has airdropped leaflets over the Northern Gaza telling residents that the actions of Hamas have forced them to launch a large-scale military operation in the region and that they must immediately evacuate towards the south.
Hamas immediately told residents that this is a false message and to remain in place, in some cases forcing residents to remain.
The Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades leader in Gaza was eliminated via an IDF airstrike.
IDF says it has carried out strikes against some 3,600 targets across the Gaza Strip, using more than 6,000 munitions. Over 6000 rockets have been launched at Israel since Saturday.
The Israeli Government has ordered the total evacuation of the City of Sderot. It has a population of over 30,000.
Overnight massive IAF strikes hit Gaza City and much of the northern portions of Gaza. This appears to be a highly coordinated strike. Observers note the largest of the campaign.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Deputy Secretary-General of Hezbollah: We contribute to the confrontation with Israel according to our vision, and we will take the action when the time comes.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH/IRAN———————————-
Israeli army spokesman: We will destroy more targets in Syria in the coming days
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said upon arrival to Beirut that more anti-Israeli fronts may be opened in the future.
“In the light of the continued aggression and military crimes [committed by Israel in the Gaza Strip], and the siege of Gaza, there is possibility of other fronts being opened,” the minister said in a comment to the Al Mayadeen television channel.
WEST BANK——————————-
Clashes in Jerusalem and protests in Ramallah against the Israeli attack on Gaza continue. Scattered reports of gunfights between Palestinians and security forces.
Unconfirmed reports that Israeli Defense Forces have conducted an overnight raid in the West Bank which led to the arrest of Speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council and Senior Hamas Leader, Aziz Dweik; Dweik is also seen by many Palestinians as the Interim-President of the Palestinian National Authority.
Jordanian Security are clashing with groups of citizens along the border as they try to get into the West Bank region. This comes after Hamas Al-Qassam called for a day of rage. Jordanian security using teargas at the crowds to disperse them.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Washington is holding talks to allow foreigners to leave Gaza through the Rafah crossing. Egypt still denying all exit by Gazans into Egypt. Egypt president El-Sisi says the people of Gaza must remain on their land.
US is setting up citizens in Israel for another Afghanistan debacle 2.0, say that it will evacuate citizens ONLY if they sign a promissory note to repay the govt.
Major riots erupted tonight in Paris. The riot police is clashing with Hamas supporters. France has outlawed pro-Hamas protests and has threatened to deport protestors.
Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian threatened Israel with coordinated response from multiple nations -
“The continuation of Israeli attacks against the Palestinians will be MET WITH A RESPONSE from the rest of the axes.”
“Today, the continuation of war crimes by (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu and Zionists against the civilians in Gaza, besieging, cutting off water and electricity, and denying entry of medicine and food, has created conditions where the Zionists are seeking a genocide of all people in Gaza.”
FORECAST ————————-
BULF - Ground offensive into Gaza is imminent. The starting gun could be the evacuation of Sderot. The next couple days is a new moon period. Warnings to evacuate N Gaza and evacuations of Israeli civilians from the region around Gaza are likely the final steps before invasion.
Analysts are trying to figure out the forces and locations for the Israeli ground assault. They are estimating that Israel may possibly use 4 divisions, a force of 150,000 to 300,000 troops, police, and security services MAY be employed. Based on Israeli instructions for gazans to leave the northern half of Gaza, attacks would commence on the northern and eastern border of Gaza. N Gaza has been the primary military stronghold for Hamas et al and has been the primary source of rockets launched into Israel.
Analysts are assessing that Hezbollah along with other allied terror groups, are massing its forces along Israel’s northern border and is expected to launch an assault timed to any Israeli ground operation into Gaza. Israel has and continues to deploy forces to the border region to counter any Hezbollah ground attack. These forces also serve to reinforce against incursions that may come from Syria. Hezbollah’s response to an invasion of Gaza will most likely come in the form of a massive rocket attack - it is believed that they possess around 160,000 rockets/missiles. Hezbollah’s ground forces are predominantly light, possessing no serious armor or tank forces. Light, off road vehicles and motorcycle units are highlighted, and could cause problems in some areas, but Israel’s armor/tank heavy units would be insurmountable.
Entry of Hezbollah may trigger other actions through out the middle east and world -worse case scenario made more likely by soft US foreign policy and leadership.
Iran –
United States and Qatar have agreed to block Iran’s access to $6-Billion in funding.. - Fox News
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Reports of Iranian T-72 tanks on the move in Khuzestan province, apparently headed towards the Western border.
OBSERVATION - This would headed towards the Iraqi border. Uncertain if this would to potentially be used to attack US/Alllied bases in N Iraq or pass through in route to Syria and eventually Israel.
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Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian is conducting a diplomatic tour to Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, possibly to coordinate politically with senior leaders in the Axis of Resistance.
Syria -
Israeli army spokesman: We will destroy more targets in Syria in the coming days. A likely reference to targeting Iranian/Hezbollah sites that would support an attack on Israel.