Tomorrow’s post may be abbreviated as I’ll be headed out of town early. Focused mainly on the Hamas/Israel war and secondary events related.
Economy –
The United Auto Workers (UAW) Union said 1,100 members in three states who work for General Dynamics voted by a 97% margin to authorize a strike when their contract ends on 22 October.
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Economic analysts are all over the board, gazing into the tea leaves trying to predict the impacts of the hamas/Israel and Ukraine/Russian wars on top of all the other economic issues globally. To me, this captures the unsettled and volatile condition of the global economy.
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Minnesota has been hit with a devastating bird flu outbreak as the state prepares to provide much of the nation with turkeys for Thanksgiving.
On Wednesday, officials announced Minnesota’s first major outbreak of bird flu in 2023. Minnesota is America’s largest producer of turkeys. State officials said Wednesday that a flock of 140,000 turkeys was killed at a Meeker County farm.
OBSERVATION - The US pulled out of an extended bird flu epidemic that deviated poultry farm for nearly two years. Winter is commonly flu season and hopefully officials can get this outbreak contained. However, looks like turkey prices will rise with these flu induced shortages.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
NOTE - This section and Terrorism are kind of blending at this hour as both are cross relating due to Pro-hamas activities supported by Antifa/BLM.
I have stated here that the left has been searching for a unifying cause to rally its forces and it clearly appears that the Hamas/Israeli war has handed that cause to them coalescing around “decolonization.” Considering that the hot portion of the war will likely last for potentially months, with the aftermath lasting for considerably longer, there will be plenty to offer for these violence prone factions. Further inflammatory factors will include potential economic stress from a recession, war in Ukraine and political turmoil from the 2024 election cycle.
Time will tell if this fuse is the one that lights the big firestorms in a manner that 2020 riots hit. However, now nearly 4 years down the road and a very energized moslem component has all the potential of causing riots and destruction that could exceed 2020.
See announced weekend protest locations under “Terrorism”
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Andy Ngo notes “The academics, activists, leftists, communists, anarchists, socialists, etc., who are currently praising the terrorist actions of Hamas in Israel are the same people who praised (or participated in) the domestic terrorist attacks in the U.S. during the 2020 BLM-Antifa riots.”
OBSERVATION - It is looking more and more like the leftists have found their issue to gather support for rioting over the next 14 months.
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As I noted yesterday, Black Lives Matter (BLM) and Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) organizations published statements supporting Palestinians, Hamas, and “decolonization,” which has put them at odds with the broader Democratic political coalition and pushed the center left to distance itself from these far left groups and movements. Some instances saw some BLM and DSA elements backpedal fiercely, while in other instances they doubled down. This could strip some support from the far left if things start to go sideways in the next few months.
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Noah’s Ark Bakery and Temple Beth Israel synagogue were smashed up in Fresno, Calif. on Oct. 10. A note left behind at the bakery stated: “All Jewish businesses will be targeted.” Orlando Javier Ramirez, a 30-year-old Latino, was arrested for the crime.
Terrorism -
Today is the “International day of Jihad” that has caused some to enter panic mode across the globe. Expect protests and opportunistic terrorist / violent activity are likely. It is prudent to exercise extra situation awareness, especially in locations where these pro-Hamas rallies have already been held or are scheduled to be held (see below). Lone wolf attacks are also a high possibility. For example one teacher in France was knifed by an arab overnight and killed. See also vandalism in Fresno CA above under CW2.
Current announced protests to be held -
Chicago, IL; Eugene, OR; Greensboro, NC; Miami, FL; New York, NY; Orlando, FL; Tampa, FL; Buffalo, NY; Washington D.C.; Atlanta, GA; Detroit, MI; Houston, TX; Jacksonville, FL; Los Angeles, CA; Nashville, TN; Orlando, FL; New Orleans, LA; Hollywood Beach, FL; Minneapolis, MN; Nashville, TN
US intel/security agencies say they - “do not at present have any specific & credible intelligence that would indicate any potential threat to the US stemming from Hamas terrorist attacks in Israel at this time”
More pro-Hamas rallies are expected at numerous university campuses across the nation. In some instances, pro-Hamas rallies off campus are being ‘secured’ by Antifa et al forces in black bloc.
IN RELATED, Israeli billionaire Idan Ofer quits Harvard board, blasts university’s president over Hamas student letter. Other major donors to Harvard are closing up their wallets in protest of Harvard’s endorsement of the pro-Hamas causes.
Wall Street CEO Marc Rowan is calling for the leaders of the University of Pennsylvania to resign and donors to close their checkbooks over an alleged failure to condemn antisemitism and hate.
Rowan, the CEO of private equity giant Apollo Global Management, wrote in an op-ed posted online Wednesday that UPenn failed to condemn an event held on campus last month that the university acknowledged included speakers with a history of making antisemitic remarks.
“Why is UPenn repeating tragic mistakes of the past? Words of hate and violence must be met with clear, reasoned condemnation, rooted in morality from those in positions of authority,” Rowan wrote.
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Across the country, local police departments are also preparing for a worst-case scenario.
The U.S. Capitol Police enhanced security in Washington following the call to action from Hamas leaders. While there are no specific threats to Congress, police said in a statement, “We are not taking any chances.”
New York City is home to 1.9 million of the country’s 7.5 million Jewish people. The city’s Democratic mayor, Eric Adams, a former New York Police Department officer himself, said all 36,000 NYPD officers are required to report in uniform Friday.
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The Southern Poverty Law Center is silent in the face of Hamas terror and so far has not added them to their terror lists.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Two B-1s arrived at RAF Fairford yesterday. From this base, they can reach targets in the Middle East relatively quickly, should the need arise.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Rep. Steve Scalise is withdrawing from the race for Speaker of the House after failing to gain support from enough republicans to win the majority in the house vote. Rep Jordan has emerged to be the new candidate and unconfirmed reports has enough republican support to over come democrat opposition.
Illegal Immigration –
To add insult to injury, the biden administration may soon be providing free medical services, food and even housing to the 5.7 million of illegals that they’ve allowed into the country. Folks, our homeless citizens are not getting that level of social hand outs.
MORE crap from the regime. The Biden administration released a statement Thursday warning financial institutions against using a person’s immigration status in credit applications.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) released a joint statement telling financial institutions that while it is not illegal to consider a person’s immigration status in the decision on whether to lend money, an overreliance on it could run afoul of the law, according to the statement. The statement implicates the Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA), which makes it illegal to discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex and more in considering a person’s credit application as the mechanism, even though the law does list citizenship status as a protected attribute.
Right, lets overload our banks will loans that will not be paid back by these illegals who will take the money and run.
China –
Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen and the Democratic People’s Party of Taiwan are leaning more towards independence stances from China, actions that are agitating Chinese leadership. Taiwan’s January election is seen as a critical milestone in the China / Taiwan standoff and if it goes against Chinese supported candidates, could drive it to begin aggressive measures - most likely at this time being a blockade of the island.
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Analysts are assessing that China will have three operational aircraft carrier by the end of the year. This would extend China’s capabilities to establish and maintain a blockade of the island.
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(Bloomberg) — China is scouring the globe for wheat, with annual imports on track to hit record levels, as buyers scoop up cheap supplies after heavy rains damaged the domestic crop.
OBSERVATION - China has had major harvests of grain crops damaged every year for the past 4 - 5 years. This is placing additional economic burden on the country to keep its 1 billion plus population fed.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
More Russian counterattacks, now in the Robotyne area. Having no success and a lot of losses - see below
More Russian drone attacks on ports in the Odesa region. Ukraine striking deep targets in the occupied southern regions and potential hunter/killer sea borne drone attacks in the Black Sea.
Tokmak Axis -.
Russia assault southwest of Robotyne was reportedly turned back with an estimated loss of 42 tanks and 44 APCs.
Velyka Novosilka Axis-
Loud explosions were reported in Mariupol and Melitopol.
Crimean front —
Smoke from Russian Buyan-class corvette seen after explosion near Sevastopol. No word yet as to the cause.
OUTLOOK -
The Russian counter attack in the Robotyne area appears to be facing the same mega defeat as the fight at Avdiivka - massive losses of tanks, armor and men (2 BTGs?). Interestingly, these offensive actions almost appear to have been timed to kick off with the Hamas attack on Israel Saturday. Losses in these two battles will severely harm any future attempts by Russia to try to seize the initiative once the fall rains hit and Ukraine is forced to slow down its actions.
Expected dogged Russian counterattacks to continue in those two areas.
The suspected Ukraine hit on another Russian ship (still pending verification) follows announcements that Ukraine has stepped up hunting Russian warships in the Black Sea west of Crimea.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight observations
* The Israeli is preparing for a ground entry into the Gaza Strip; they are primarily waiting for approval from the political level. The main object is the disarmament of the Gaza Strip.
* The Israeli town of Sderot and other communities around Gaza are to be evacuated ASAP.
* Rocket fire from Gaza has reduced, initial belief is that some are being kept in reserve due to the impending ground invasion. Since Saturday, 6000+ rockets are believed to have been fired into Israel.
* Small arms clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces increased slightly across the WestBank, as Palestinian militias try to stoke conflict there.
* Unidentified Iranian officials implicitly threatened to direct proxy attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria if the United States re-freezes Iranian financial assets abroad. Those assets, $6 Billion, were refrozen overnight.
GENERAL ——————————-
The PR campaigns from both sides have been almost as furious as the physical combat. Hamas is still trying to deflect criticism from the atrocities it committed last Saturday and replay the victim card. Seemingly internal bickering in various MSM groups over coverage that is breaking the normal depiction of Israel as being evil.
The spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council, John Kirby, says the number of Americans killed as a result of the Hamas attack has risen to 27. Another 14 Americans still remain unaccounted for.
Thousands of Israelis reservists continue to fly into country and prepare for war. Total number of reserves now appears to exceed 400,000.
Foreign ministers of Canada, Italy and Germany, as well as the US Secretary of Defense, are set to visit Israel today.
Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades leader in Gaza, Sami al-Abd al-Hassani, was eliminated in an IDF airstrike in al-Shati camp, the terror group confirms.
More information coming out regarding how Hamas succeeded in planning for Saturday’s attack. Evidence that they began planning a little over a year ago and coordinated much of their work face-to-face. They also reportedly used most of the workers permits to work in Israel from Gaza to get spies out of Gaza - explaining the detailed maps of Israeli force deployments and town/kibitzes. Israeli intelligence the night before the Hamas attack picked up signs of irregular activity among Hamas operatives in Gaza but top IDF and Shin Bet leaders decided not to put military forces on the borders of the enclave on high alert.
Hamas then hit a highly coordinated time line, with the rocket barrages (and accompanying explosions) providing cover for teams to breach the border fence as well as take out the plethora of border cameras and other monitoring devices and Israeli bases. Blinded, Israel made a wrong assumption that this was just a diversionary attack covering for the much more anticipated attack out of Lebanon by Hezbollah. Israel sent its rapid response special ops north, leaving villages around Gaza mostly unprotected. Israel had believed that Hamas would not conduct such an attack.
Hamas is now trying to distance itself from Gaza’s by tossing them under the bus. Number 2 in Hamas, Saleh al-Arouri, interviewed on Al-Jazeera, defensively claims Hamas didn’t mean to harm civilians. He blames GAZA CIVILIANS for following Hamas in and kidnapping Israelis. it has been documented that Gazans followed the Hamas assault elements, but their actions were that of looting. Hamas itself documented that they committed the atrocities, not others.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF has airdropped leaflets over the Northern Gaza telling residents that the actions of Hamas have forced them to launch a large-scale military operation in the region and that they must immediately evacuate towards the south.
Hamas immediately told residents that this is a false message and to remain in place, in some cases forcing residents to remain.
The Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades leader in Gaza was eliminated via an IDF airstrike.
IDF says it has carried out strikes against some 3,600 targets across the Gaza Strip, using more than 6,000 munitions. Over 6000 rockets have been launched at Israel since Saturday.
The Israeli Government has ordered the total evacuation of the City of Sderot. It has a population of over 30,000.
Overnight massive IAF strikes hit Gaza City and much of the northern portions of Gaza. This appears to be a highly coordinated strike. Observers note the largest of the campaign.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Deputy Secretary-General of Hezbollah: We contribute to the confrontation with Israel according to our vision, and we will take the action when the time comes.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH/IRAN———————————-
Israeli army spokesman: We will destroy more targets in Syria in the coming days
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said upon arrival to Beirut that more anti-Israeli fronts may be opened in the future.
“In the light of the continued aggression and military crimes [committed by Israel in the Gaza Strip], and the siege of Gaza, there is possibility of other fronts being opened,” the minister said in a comment to the Al Mayadeen television channel.
WEST BANK——————————-
Clashes in Jerusalem and protests in Ramallah against the Israeli attack on Gaza continue. Scattered reports of gunfights between Palestinians and security forces.
Unconfirmed reports that Israeli Defense Forces have conducted an overnight raid in the West Bank which led to the arrest of Speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council and Senior Hamas Leader, Aziz Dweik; Dweik is also seen by many Palestinians as the Interim-President of the Palestinian National Authority.
Jordanian Security are clashing with groups of citizens along the border as they try to get into the West Bank region. This comes after Hamas Al-Qassam called for a day of rage. Jordanian security using teargas at the crowds to disperse them.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Washington is holding talks to allow foreigners to leave Gaza through the Rafah crossing. Egypt still denying all exit by Gazans into Egypt. Egypt president El-Sisi says the people of Gaza must remain on their land.
US is setting up citizens in Israel for another Afghanistan debacle 2.0, say that it will evacuate citizens ONLY if they sign a promissory note to repay the govt.
Major riots erupted tonight in Paris. The riot police is clashing with Hamas supporters. France has outlawed pro-Hamas protests and has threatened to deport protestors.
Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian threatened Israel with coordinated response from multiple nations -
“The continuation of Israeli attacks against the Palestinians will be MET WITH A RESPONSE from the rest of the axes.”
“Today, the continuation of war crimes by (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu and Zionists against the civilians in Gaza, besieging, cutting off water and electricity, and denying entry of medicine and food, has created conditions where the Zionists are seeking a genocide of all people in Gaza.”
FORECAST ————————-
BULF - Ground offensive into Gaza is imminent. The starting gun could be the evacuation of Sderot. The next couple days is a new moon period. Warnings to evacuate N Gaza and evacuations of Israeli civilians from the region around Gaza are likely the final steps before invasion.
Analysts are trying to figure out the forces and locations for the Israeli ground assault. They are estimating that Israel may possibly use 4 divisions, a force of 150,000 to 300,000 troops, police, and security services MAY be employed. Based on Israeli instructions for gazans to leave the northern half of Gaza, attacks would commence on the northern and eastern border of Gaza. N Gaza has been the primary military stronghold for Hamas et al and has been the primary source of rockets launched into Israel.
Analysts are assessing that Hezbollah along with other allied terror groups, are massing its forces along Israel’s northern border and is expected to launch an assault timed to any Israeli ground operation into Gaza. Israel has and continues to deploy forces to the border region to counter any Hezbollah ground attack. These forces also serve to reinforce against incursions that may come from Syria. Hezbollah’s response to an invasion of Gaza will most likely come in the form of a massive rocket attack - it is believed that they possess around 160,000 rockets/missiles. Hezbollah’s ground forces are predominantly light, possessing no serious armor or tank forces. Light, off road vehicles and motorcycle units are highlighted, and could cause problems in some areas, but Israel’s armor/tank heavy units would be insurmountable.
Entry of Hezbollah may trigger other actions through out the middle east and world -worse case scenario made more likely by soft US foreign policy and leadership.
Iran –
United States and Qatar have agreed to block Iran’s access to $6-Billion in funding.. - Fox News
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Reports of Iranian T-72 tanks on the move in Khuzestan province, apparently headed towards the Western border.
OBSERVATION - This would headed towards the Iraqi border. Uncertain if this would to potentially be used to attack US/Alllied bases in N Iraq or pass through in route to Syria and eventually Israel.
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Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian is conducting a diplomatic tour to Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, possibly to coordinate politically with senior leaders in the Axis of Resistance.
Syria -
Israeli army spokesman: We will destroy more targets in Syria in the coming days. A likely reference to targeting Iranian/Hezbollah sites that would support an attack on Israel.
Abbreviated as I’m getting ready to take a day trip out of town.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Voters in New Zealand on Saturday ousted the party once led by Jacinda Ardern and elected the country’s most right-wing government in a generation, handing victory to a coalition of two conservative parties.
New Zealand’s next prime minister will be Christopher Luxon, a former chief executive of Air New Zealand, whose center-right National Party will lead a coalition with Act, a smaller libertarian party.
OBSERVATION - The previous govt brutally dealt with its citizens during the wuhan lock down and various other operations to implement WEF goals. Very tyrannical and this election seems to be pushback for its excesses.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The anti-Israeli protests were held in multiple locations across the US (and around the world) with limited violence reported. I would project that when the Israeli ground assault into Gaza kicks off in the next days, violence associated with follow-on protests will rise significantly .
Terrorism -
Nothing overt occurred in association with the day of jihad protests yesterday, though the threat remains elevated and could likely rise when the ground war in Gaza kicks off.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
CNN: US preps rapid reaction Marine unit for potential deployment toward Israel. The 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit, a rapid reaction force capable of conducting special operations, is making preparations in case it is ordered closer to Israel to bolster the US’ force posture there, say multiple US officials. Currently abruptly ceased training in the Persian Gulf area.
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The Deployment of Carrier Strike Group 2 (CSG-2) led by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) and consisting of 4 other surface ships including the Ticonderoga-Class Cruiser the USS Philippine Sea (CG-58); as well as 3 Arleigh Burke-Class Guided-Missile Destroyers - USS Laboon (DDG-58), USS Mason (DDG-87) and USS Gravely (DDG-107). CSG was supposed to depart from Naval Station Norfolk Thursday for the Mediterranean has been delayed in order to “Increase the readiness of the ships to peak combat effectiveness.”
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Pfizer had to revise it profit outlook down significantly because only 2% of the population has gotten the latest jab.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Vote on new House speaker scheduled for next week as Jordan works to secure the republican votes necessary to overcome democrat opposition.
North/South Korea –
Russia has received initial shipments of ammo from NK for use in Ukraine.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Kerch Bridge update –
Bridge reportedly reopened for full traffic following repairs.
Logistics –
Trains loaded with ammo have reportedly made it to Russia from N Korea.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
News is scarce - still overwhelmed by Hamas/Israel.
Russia continues to press the attack in the Avdiivka region, but is gaining little to no ground.
Kupiansk Front -
Russian army resumed offensive actions at Makiivka of Luhansk region and at Kupiansk axis.
OUTLOOK -
Russia appears to be desperately attempting to mount offensives in the east as a way to divert Ukranian resources away from the south. So far, Ukraine’s defenses have been up to the task and have inflicted severe Russian losses.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight observations
* Hamas continued to launch rockets and IAF continued to bomb targets in Gaza.
* Israel gave a 24 hour evacuation notice to residents in the Gaza City / northern Gaza region. Israel set up two safe evacuation routes. Hamas alleges that Israel hit one of the refugee convoys - but the action was likely by Hamas to instill fear and keep residents in place.
* Hamas working to force residents to say in place.
* Israel told a major hospital to evacuate in 2 hours, building houses Hamas command center.
* Israel conducted reconnaissance in force operations, entering Gaza yesterday.
More background on the Palestinian situation. -
The Palestinians were not Palestinians initially but local Arabs that refused to recognize Israeli independence. Most of these Arabs lived in the West Bank and Gaza. Neighboring Arab states refused to absorb the Palestinians and Jordan had to fight a brief war with their Palestinian refugees who had staged a rebellion against the Jordanians in 1970. The Palestinians were defeated and driven into Syria.
The UN sought to help by demanding that Israeli allow Palestinians who fled their homes during the end of the 1947-49 war Israelis fought to establish their independence. The displaced Arabs who refused to recognize the new state of Israeli also refused many other solutions that the UN and Israel agreed on and offered and instead lived in the West Bank and Gaza, which could have been an independents state but many of the Arabs insisted that Israeli surrender more territory and when Israeli refused the West Bank and Gaza Arabs, who rebranded themselves as Palestinians in the 1960s, demanded that Israeli be destroyed and replaced with a Palestinian state that contained no Jews. That has been the underlying goal of the Palestinians ever since. Their elected leaders are corrupt and tell the UN and donor nations that they just want peace with Israel while doing little to make that happen. The Palestinians have tried several different tactics to fight Israel, or at least kill Israelis and none have succeeded. Thus, like the four wars Arabs fought with Israel and lost, Palestinians were running out of ideas, until Hamas came up with a bold and bloody solution that is leading to more disappointment. The current Hamas attack has killed more Israeli civilians than in any war since the first one that ended in 1949 with the recognition of Israel as a nation. Many Arabs refuse to accept that and support groups like Hamas that keep trying. Many Arabs see what the problems and the solution is making peace with Israel and doing business with them. This is especially true since the prosperous Persian Gulf oil states are threatened by Iran, as are Israel and Arab states like Egypt that depend on the Gulf states for investments and financial assistance. Iran backs Hamas and has paid for all those rockets they launched at Israel as well as training and other support for Hamas members. There is a pattern to the Hamas offensive, and it has its roots in Iran and Arabs who are obsessed with destroying Israel and killing or driving all Jews out of the region. This is nothing new. The Arabs were big admirers of the Nazis during the 1930s and World War II. The Nazis wanted to kill all Jews everywhere. The Jews survived but so did the hate. Many people worldwide support Hamas, some without realizing what Hamas is and where it came from. Hamas will fail but its goals will persist.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htiw/articles/20231014.aspx
I’d add that Israel totally withdrew from Gaza in 2005 leaving substantial infrastructure in place that could have benefited the ‘Palestinians’ greatly. One in particular was world class hydroponics and greenhouse set ups that were the envy of the region and Europe. One of the first acts by these ‘Palestinians’ was to destroy these and other facilities.
GENERAL ——————————-
56 wanted persons, of which 25 are Hamas operatives, were arrested tonight in Yosh, in the Bekaa and in the valleys by the Israeli army and Shin Bet. Since the beginning of the war, approximately 280 wanted persons have been arrested, of which 157 are Hamas operatives
Egyptian Officials believe that are they are very close to finalizing a deal with the United States that will allow for the evacuation of foreign nationals still in Gaza into Egypt through border checkpoints, but that this will not include any Palestinians besides ones with Dual-Citizenship from another country.
Hamas’ militant wing “Al-Qassam” says 13 hostages, including foreign nationals held in the Gaza Strip, have been killed in the past 24 hours due to Israeli airstrikes.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF says infantry forces and tanks entered Gaza Strip territory today in “localized raids” (ie, recon in force) in order to clear the area of potential terrorists and locate missing Israelis.
“The IDF intends to increase (double) the attacks on Gaza City starting tomorrow (today) morning - based on past experience, this is a preliminary step towards a ground invasion.”
The IDF confirms that they have killed senior Hamas leader Merad Abu Merad in an airstrike on Gaza City. Merad was largely responsible for directing terrorists during the massacre on Saturday
In spite of Hamas’ threats, massive numbers of Gazans are reportedly heading south to escape the soon to hit Israeli ground assault.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Clashes between the Lebanese army and IDF were reported yesterday. Lebanese army has reportedly fired artillery towards Israel who, in response, fired back.
I’m surprised that Lebanese army units would get involved in this. When the first reports of engagement with Israeli forces, I thought it was just misreporting and the actual units were either Hamas affiliated or Hezbollah. The Lebanese govt has been very outspoken about wanting Hezbollah to stay out of the fight and that govt forces are engaging Israel is troubling.
WEST BANK——————————-
Significant clashes between Israeli Defense Forces, armed-Israeli citizens, and Palestinian rioters are currently taking place across the West Bank near the border with Jordan with at least 7 Palestinians said to have been killed so far. Elements of Hamas are claimed to have also joined the fighting.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Refrozen or not? Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman al-Thani said on Friday that his country is committed to fulfilling an agreement with Iran and the U.S. an $6 billion in Iranian funds parked in a Qatar bank.
The French Government has ordered the deployment of upwards of 7,000 soldiers across the country following mass Pro-Palestinian/Hamas demonstrations that have been taking place since last weekend and a stabbing attack yesterday in the north of the country which resulted in a teacher being stabbed to death by a Hamas supporter.
FORECAST ————————-
BULF - Ground offensive into Gaza is imminent.
Pro-Hamas propaganda reporting in an effort to force Israel to stop its air campaign and stall any ground attack has hit into high gear. This includes a probable Hamas false flag attack on a group of refugees headed south.
In spite of a fierce propaganda campaign, public opinion is still favoring Israel due to the hard hitting documentation of Hamas atrocities.
All evidence is pointing to a very large and soon ground invasion. The recon in force yesterday is a key precursor. Hamas-supporting media is trying to ‘warn’ Israel that they will face certain defeat if they invade. Israel has already acknowledged that the fight will be hard, but has the assets to successfully carry out the mission.
Still looks like the initial Israeli objective is the northern half of Gaza - that includes Gaza City. His has historically been were Hamas et al has concentrated its forces. The majority of the underground facilities and tunnels are in this region was well. The ultimate goal may well be to create a DMZ administrated by Israel to push Hamas south and away from general rocket range into Israel. Southern Gaza rockets would still be able to strike Israel, but those would be low population areas.
I hold little hope out for the hostages. Hamas will either kill them outright and place their bodies in the rubble of blown up buildings or hold on to them as human shields to be killed when Israel strikes.
Iran –
Still making threats against continued attacks in Gaza.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.