Posted on 01/01/2023 6:02:12 AM PST by Godzilla
Threats surround us on a daily basis. Being able to recognize them and react are essential. This is ongoing commentary of those threats
Globalism / Great Reset –
Pope Francis has published his second document on the topic of “climate change,” condemning “human-induced climate changes” and calling for “obligatory” measures across the globe to address the issue.
There must be “binding forms of energy transition that meet three conditions: that they be efficient, obligatory and readily monitored,” wrote Pope Francis, outlining his hopes for the upcoming COP28 “climate change” conference, which he highlighted as a potentially “historic event.”
OBSERVATION - The pope is demanding that nations be forced to comply with these bogus climate change dictates.
Economy –
General Motors secured a new $6 billion line of credit as the automaker braces for additional strikes by the United Auto Workers union. The targeted strikes have already cost the automaker $200 million during the third quarter, GM said Wednesday. The new line of credit is “prudent” to bolstering GM’s balance sheet amid expectations that the union may expand and prolong strikes against the company, GM CFO Paul Jacobson said.
OBSERVATION - The other two auto makers are probably in the same condition. Not only are the auto makers feeling the pinch, but all the suppliers as well.
***
Goldman Sachs economists are predicting that the govt will shut down when the 45 day CR runs out. They estimate that it won’t go longer than two weeks, after that the political ramifications will skyrocket. A lot depends on who the next speaker is.
***
Saudi Arabia, Russia, and an OPEC+ panel decided in yesterday’s meetings to keep their voluntary oil supply cuts in place thru December. This could keep oil between $60 - $90 / barrel.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The FBI reportedly is secretly targeting supporters of former President Donald Trump to prevent violence or any major civil disturbances around the time of the 2024 elections.
Newsweek reported Wednesday it spoke to more than a dozen current or former government officials who specialize in terrorism in a three-month investigation about the domestic-security landscape and to evaluate what biden’s regime is doing about what it calls domestic terrorism.
OBSERVATION - At risk of repeating myself, the FBI and other alphabet agencies designated the MAGA base across the country as potential domestic terrorists as far back as 0bama. This is simply the govt conducting battlefield information preparation to feed the narrative to the MSM, as well as justify potential (eventual?) iron fist arrests of regime opponents.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Army is launching a sweeping overhaul of its recruiting to focus more on young people who have spent time in college or are job hunting early in their careers, as it scrambles to reverse years of enlistment shortfalls.
A major part of this is the formation of a new professional force of recruiters instead of relying on soldiers randomly assigned to the task.
Army Secretary Christine Wormuth, in an interview with The Associated Press, said some of the changes will begin in the next 90 days but a wholesale transformation will take years.
OBSERVATION - Hiring ‘professionals’ isn’t going to help. The military / biden regime has demonized the patriotic demographic that normally fills the volunteer ranks - designating them as hate groups, domestic terrorist, etc. Why serve in the military for a regime that despises you and will throw you under the bus as in Afghanistan.
POLITICAL FRONT –
A ruling on Tuesday by the US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit marks a leap for the safeguarding of free speech within the social media arena. This decision sees the addition of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) to a preliminary injunction in the ongoing legal contest of Missouri v. Biden.
The CISA, described as the “nerve center” of federal government censorship, is responsible for censoring the American public, facilitating collusion between the feds and social media companies, and interfering in our elections. The court’s original opinion, which addressed the White House, FBI, CDC, and Surgeon General, did not include CISA.
The court stated that CISA “shall take no actions, formal or informal, directly or indirectly, to coerce or significantly encourage social-media companies to remove, delete, suppress, or reduce, including through altering their algorithms, posted social-media content containing protected free speech,” according to an excerpt provided sources.
OBSERVATION - Keep cross referenced under CW2. The regime is trying to shape the information battlefield for 2024 and this is a major stumbling block for them. This will not stop them because they have repeatedly demonstrated the willingness to violate court orders/decisions commonly by doing work arounds using other actors.
***
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said the House GOP should eliminate the single-member Motion to Vacate rule after former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) ouster, adding that Americans expect a functioning government.
OBSERVATION - The swamp discovered a weakness in the system and after only ONE successful effort over the years they have to change it. Some believe that the democrats had a back room deal to prevent this from happening to McCarthy, but reneged on it (hence Pelosi losing her special office space).
Illegal Immigration –
DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas now claims there is ‘IMMEDIATE NEED’ to waive regulations and BUILD BORDER WALL in Texas as immigration surges..
Biden’s administration is to build a section of border wall in southern Texas in an effort to stop rising levels of immigration.
Around 20 miles (32km) will be built in Starr County along its border with Mexico, where officials report high numbers of crossings. Building a border wall was a signature policy of Donald Trump as president and fiercely opposed by Democrats.
Dozens of federal laws have been waived in order to approve its construction, including the Clean Air Act and Safe Drinking Water Act.
According to a proposal by US Customs and Border Protection, the barriers will consist of large bollards embedded in a concrete base, as well as gates, cameras and CCTV equipment.
Homeland Security said it would use funding secured during Donald Trump’s presidency to build the new section.
OBSERVATION - The regime is buckling under pressure from democrat mayors and governors swamped with illegals, killing budgets and the rise of citizen resistance to the establishment of illegal facilities. Violent crime by illegals is growing - kept under wraps by the MSM- but very noticed by the people with illegals in their communities across the nation.
This also comes to bear as Mayorkas testified under oath that the border was secure and there was no illegal immigration problem.
This is too little, too late to make any meaningful reduction in crossings before the 2024 elections.
***
Chiago’s mayor tried to pitch a plan for an illegal immigrant ‘colony’ at a pubic meeting. Attendees shouted him down and were against the proposal.
OBSERVATION - The flood of illegals has the potential to seriously bite democrats in 2024 - hence the renewed fence building noted above.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russian Black Sea Fleet moved most of its ships from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk.
All three operational submarines of Project 06363 (Kilo-class), both frigates of Project 11356 (Admiral Grigorovich-class) & one patrol ship moved to Novorossiysk.
Project 1135M (Krivak-class frigate), five large landing ships, and, apparently, the bulk of small missile ships are also in Novorossiysk.
Another part of the ships - one large landing ship, two small missile ships and both new minesweepers of Project 12700 (Alexandrit-class) - moved from Sevastopol to Feodosia.
A reduced number of Russian air/missile strikes the last few days due likely to the Russian Navy maneuvering assets further away to prevent Ukrainian attacks and VKS parts and munitions resupply issues.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 70s with chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
More Russia drone attacks, majority intercepted by Ukraine ADA. Judging from the reported targets, they may be focusing on trying to hit Ukraine logistical facilities.
See Russia for the major redeployment of the Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea.
Russian Territory –
Ukraine reportedly hit a S-400 SAM in Belgorod region of Russia overnight
OUTLOOK –
For a country with virtually no navy, Ukraine has forced Russia to withdraw to ‘safer’ ports on the eastern margins of the Black Sea. As noted above, this may be one of the reasons fewer Kaliber missiles have been launched - Russia fears entering the primary launch zones in the Black Sea because of roving drones and extended range anti-ship missiles. Expect low missile support from the fleet to continue for the near future.
The Russian S400s still show vulnerabilities to Ukraine drones. They are expensive and in very limited quantities. The Belgorod strike helps open drone flight lanes towards Moscow.
Action on the southern and eastern fronts are still obscured by OPSEC and other fog of war issues. Still, Ukraine is systematically pushing Russians out of their positions, based on some valid sources.
It went back way before Obama. The first big lie story was there was a 'vast right wing conspiracy' (Clinton era) We dodged that series of lies when Hillary 'spilled the beans' about that 'secret threat', Her one action open the lie up the light of day and people laughed about how stupid it was.
I'm sure the goons and thugs of today's budding young police state are up to their old tricks. I'm sure there's a story out there that paints all conservatives as terrorists with only 'the insiders' getting to know the details. So our task to save the country is to trip them up into telling or having to prove their lies.
I suspect Biden's giving us hints as to what the lies are this time... something that makes us 'dangerous. They can't be basing all this planning to arrest or harm conservative based only on Jan 6th. It's still just one day - no fires, no graffiti, no real deaths other than one woman vet murdered at point blank range by a capitol police officer.
So they have more - a story - a secret that "those in the know" will 'hint' at it because it's so cool to be in on a secret like this. We need a Hillary to blurt out the lie but we probably won't be that lucky again.
So we need to listen carefully - gugure out what the lie is and debunk it. How? By demandomg proof of what the lie is...
I cannot get the thought out of my head of a ginned up ‘martial law’ declaration with them coming after us on the lists. . . .
Economy –
The average rate on the benchmark 30-year home loan rose to 7.49% from 7.31% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.66%.
Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, popular with homeowners refinancing their home loan, also increased. The average rate rose to 6.78% from 6.72% last week. A year ago, it averaged 5.90%, Freddie Mac said.
OBSERVATION - The home loan and housing sector are hemorrhaging and there is no relief in sight. Further, economists are expecting mortgage rates to hit 8% soon.
***
The bond-market sell-off that’s sending yields soaring is starting to eclipse some of the most extreme market meltdowns of past eras.
Bloomberg reported losses on Treasury bond with maturities of 10 years or more had notched 46% since March 2020, while the 30-year bond had plunged 53%.
Those losses are nearly in line with stock-market losses seen during the worst crashes of recent history — when equities slumped 49% after the dot-com bubble burst and 57% in the aftermath of 2008.
Compared with previous bond-market meltdowns, long-term Treasurys are seeing one of the most extreme undoings in history. The losses are over twice as big as those seen in 1981 when 10-year yields neared 16%.
OBSERVATION - dangerous harbingers being largely ignored by many economists trying to sell a soft landing narrative. This trend won’t be reversed until rates start to fall.
***
Word out of the oil patch is that US shale producers are reluctant to increase drilling and production even though prices are approaching $100/barrel. IMHO this is due to the current administration’s energy policies and Wall Street’s attempts to direct capital away from fossil fuel projects.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
In a CNN interview, Hillary Clinton calls for the “deprogramming” of Trump supporters.
OBSERVATION - Noting this under this category because hillary’s comments are not new but calling for essentially violence against the right. Numerous mouthpieces on the progressive left have been insinuating the same since trump was elected. “Reeducation” camps have been immensely popular with the former Soviet Union and China. Any effort to try to force this on the right will result in a hot civil war - let there be no doubt. This is also why the alphabet govt agencies are accelerating their categorization of so called “MAGA” supporters - making their lists and checking them twice - so they can try to move on Americans before significant resistance can build. Prototype model is the treatment of J6 political prisoners.
Such is all over X as the following (now deleted account) posted -
“American conservatism is a mental illness that needs to be eradicated through reeducation camps and forced labor”
***
More fallout from the recently disclosed efforts by the FBI to monitor supporters of former President Donald Trump, even creating a “distinct category of domestic violent terrorists” to target MAGA loyalists based on their political views.
The FBI is denying the allegation.
OBSERVATION - The day is coming when the regime will try to lock up its political opponents. We’ve seen the beta runs already with the arrests and treatment of J6 prisoners as well as how they’ve gone after pro-life leaders. The day that happens will be a dark day and a day of reckoning.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
On Thursday The Wall Street Journal has learned that the Pentagon is set to significantly cut its fighting force among special operations units. But the controversial plan is already receiving significant pushback among top brass overseeing special warfare and training of foreign allied forces.
The Journals’ sources spell out that the cut is motivated by a shift in strategic priorities away from the Middle East and especially toward the “China threat”.
“The Army is cutting about 3,000 troops, or about 10% from its special-operations ranks, which could include so-called trigger-pullers from the Green Beret commando units who have conducted some of the nation’s most dangerous and sensitive missions around the world, from the jungles of Vietnam to the back alleys of Baghdad,” writes the WSJ.
OBSERVATION - Decades of low intensity conflict globally and now facing near peer threats from China for a conventional by its very nature calls for a force realignment. Problem is, the current crop of pampered princes in the pentagon are doing a crappy job at this realignment. I don’t really have much confidence in their ability to get their act together in the future either.
POLITICAL FRONT –
After talk of being nominated for the position himself, Trump has endorsed Jim Jordan for speaker of the House! Jim Jordan is one of the most popular members of Congress among many GOP voters and has no problem holding corruption accountable.
OBSERVATION - The next republican speaker has to be hardened against and knowledgeable of the ‘system’ that the house operates on in order to counter the well honed procedural fights the democrats have carried out over the years. He also has to be principled enough to carry forward a unified republican vision and agenda.
Illegal Immigration –
OVERALL OBSERVATION - biden regime has switched to a panic mode, polling and blue city and state pushback making it evident - a disaster is in the making for the 2024 elections because of out of control illegal immigration.
***
Since Biden took office, he has refused to deport illegals back to Venezuela, but the massive amounts of illegals that are inundating Democrat strongholds like NYC are forcing him to take action.
The Biden administration will deport Venezuelan migrants found not to have a legal basis to remain in the U.S. back to Venezuela, senior administration officials announced Thursday on a call with reporters.
Venezuela agreed to accept the removals, but the administration officials dodged a question about if any concessions were offered in reaching a deal. The number of Venezuelans encountered crossing the southern border illegally made up roughly a fourth of the more than 200,000 total recorded encounters in September, according to CBS News.
The White House announced in September that it’s providing 242,700 an existing temporary protection designation in addition to roughly 472,000 Venezuelans expected to qualify for the new designation to receive work permits and stay in the U.S. without fear of removal.
OBSERVATION - Wow, talk about policy reversal. First was the restart of the border fence, now aggressive deportations. Blue city/state pushback has been substantial and it appears that the progressives are wetting themselves because their policies are turning the sheeple against them.
***
Restart of the border fence by the regime has caused leftist heads to explode all over the place, while the right calls it disingenuous. biden trying to cover their action by saying the construction was mandates by ‘law’ and they had no other choice. The left is not accepting that fig leaf, considering how much biden has ignored other laws to push its agenda.
China –
National elections in Taiwan are fast approaching and the pro-independence Democratic People’s Party (DPP) candidate is leading in polls. One key policy is the declaration of independence from the mainland, formalizing the split. There is talk that such a move has already gained approval from US and related allies and that they’d back it up with their militaries.
China has been both covertly and overtly working to influence the elections and derail the DPP. China may conduct more aggressive naval and air exercises around the island as the election approaches to discourage voters from supporting the DPP. If DPP wins and officially declares independence, then China will have little other option than to open full aggression against Taiwan. Most likely initial course of action is a naval blockade followed by an actual invasion that would likely include some kind of preemptive strike on US carrier groups and other allied naval presence.
***
Chinese Coast Guard vessels are actively blockading the Philippine owned Scarborough Shoal, in an effort to starve out a Philippine Marine Corps outpost. On Wednesday, two Philippine supply ships broke through the blockade to deliver supplies to the beleaguered outpost.
OBSERVATION - Things are heating up in the region and with the announcement that the US has burned through much of its stockpile in support of Ukraine, China may become even more aggressive.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
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NUCLEAR THREATS –
Putin says Russia will deploy a nuclear powered missile ‘soon’.
This comes after a successful test of a nuclear-powered and nuclear-capable cruise missile with a potential range of many thousands of miles.
Putin also declined to rule out the possibility it could carry out weapons tests involving nuclear explosions for the first time in more than three decades.
State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin about the withdrawal of ratification of the The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT): “The situation in the world has changed. Washington and Brussels have unleashed a war against our country. Today’s challenges require new solutions.”
Satellite images circulated last month indicated that Russia had recently built new facilities at a remote Arctic island location where Soviet nuclear tests were previously conducted.
NOTE - putin is unstable enough to actual conduct some atmospheric or sub surface tests to reinforce his nuclear threats.
RUMINT-
Reports coming out that Russian naval forces have spread mines in the western Black Sea region in order to disrupt civilian shipping to/from Ukraine. This activity seems to be corresponding to the redeployment of Russian naval vessels from Crimea to Russian ports further east.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 70s with chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia has resumed greater use of Iskander ballistic missiles for attacks against Ukraine. These missiles are much harder to shoot down and have been using them to target clearly civilian targets over the past two days. These include hitting a hospital and an open air market, killing dozens of civilians. At the same time, Russia continues its drone assaults with Ukrainian air defense shooting down 25 of 33 Shahed drones overnight.
Bakhmut Axis -
Reports that Ukraine is holding and even expanding its breach of the Russian defensive lines along the N-S railroad south of town.
Kherson Axis -
Unconfirmed reports that heavily depleted units from the Tokmok fight are being shifted to this sector to free up more capable units as well as to reman and rearm.
Russian Territory –
Russian Telegram channels report that an electricity substation in Kursk region is on fire. Power has been lost to dozens of smaller villages.
OUTLOOK –
Nothing breaking at the moment. Russian counter attacks on the Tokmok front are not moving the Ukraine forces and face substantial artillery strikes from Ukraine.
Syria -
Syrian and Russian forces launched the largest attack in the Idlib region in many, many months.
Turkey continues to pursue attacks on kurdish elements in northern and northeastern Syria. Those attacks resulted in US fighter shooting down aTurkish drone .
The drone deemed a threat to US forces in northeast Syria. Prior to the shoot down, U.S. troops were forced to take shelter in bunkers after Turkish airstrikes came within 1km of their operations base.
***
At least 100 people have been killed and around 240 others were injured in a drone attack that hit Homs, Syria during a military graduation ceremony.
According to Syria’s Minister of Health, Hassan Al-Ghabash, drones equipped with explosives attacked a military college graduation ceremony in the western Syrian city of Homs on Wednesday, killing around 100 people, including women and children, and injuring hundreds more.
“In a preliminary toll, the terrorist act that targeted the graduation ceremony of students at the Military College in Homs led to the death of 80 martyrs, including 6 children, and the number of injured was 240,” Hassan Al-Ghobash said.
Syria’s military said in an earlier statement that as the ceremony was closing up, drones armed with explosives targeted the crowd of young officers and their families.
The military reportedly blamed the attack on terrorists “backed by known international forces” and stated that “it will respond with full force and decisiveness to these terrorist organizations, wherever they exist.”
No group has reportedly claimed responsibility for the attack. In an earlier statement, the defense ministry blamed “terrorist organizations supported by well known international parties.”
OBSERVATION - This could be the cause of the massive uptick in Syrian / Russian attacks on Idlib region (see above)
Turkey –
The government is mounting a nationwide campaign against the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party), in the wake of a PKK bombing in the capital Ankara. The Kurds are the largest ethnic minority in Turkey and one of the largest ethnic groups in Europe without a country of their own. Most of the Kurds are in southeastern Turkey, northern Iraq and northwestern Iran.
OBSERVATION - Turkish actions in N and NE Syria threatening stability in the region. See Syria above.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Reports that N-K is a virtual ghost town now that Armenians have left and fled to Armenia.
Holy crap, woke up ands things have hit the fan in Israel. Trying to sort thru the feeds to get a better picture of what is happening - but it is not a good start of the day for Israel.
Economy –
New jobs report showing 336,000 new jobs, but when you actually break it down, it’s terrible:
70,000+ are Gov’t jobs
151,000 are part-time
Full time jobs actually went *down* 22,000
OBSERVATION - The Fed only looks at the ‘new’ number, regardless of the internals. This report would suggest that the Fed will view the economy as being stronger than it is an maintain a pro-rate increase posture.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The Governor of New Mexico has renewed the public health order on gun violence. She updated the order to require the department of public health to host gun buy back programs.
The order still restricts carrying guns in some public places, after she had to scale back the order after a ruling by a judge last month.
OBSERVATION - Talk of her impeachment has only been just that - talk. I suspect that the requirement for buy backs will be challenged as outside her ability as gov to make such an order - in spite of the ‘emergency’.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Out of the 8,000 troops discharged over Biden’s vaccine mandate, only 43 have rejoined. Little surprise here, the military leadership demonstrated ill towards these troops and stabbed them in the back.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Pfizer used a separate manufacturing process for its fraudulent COVID-19 trials (the ones it used to get its emergency use authorization pushed through) as the one it ultimately used to manufacture the shots at scale for public use.
Via British Medical Journal :
Recent calls for more transparency in COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials is particularly relevant for data on the manufacturing process, which is an integral part of the regulatory approval process to ensure consistent safety and efficacy outcomes.
An October 2020 amendment to the protocol of the pivotal Pfizer/BioNTech BNT162b2 (Comirnaty) clinical trial (C4591001) indicates that nearly all vaccine doses used in the trial came from ‘clinical batches’ manufactured using what is referred to as ‘Process 1’. However, in order to upscale production for large-scale distribution of ‘emergency supply’ after authorization, a new method was developed, ‘Process 2’. The differences include changes to the DNA template used to transcribe the RNA and the purification phase, as well as the manufacturing process of the lipid nanoparticles. Notably, ‘Process 2’ batches were shown to have substantially lower mRNA integrity.
The protocol amendment states that “each lot of ‘Process 2’-manufactured BNT162b2 would be administered to approximately 250 participants 16 to 55 years of age” with comparative immunogenicity and safety analyses conducted with 250 randomly selected ‘Process 1’ batch recipients. To the best of our knowledge, there is no publicly available report on this comparison of ‘Process 1’ versus ‘Process 2’ doses.
Two documents obtained through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request[6] describe the vaccine batches and lots supplied to each of the trial sites through November 19, 2020[7] and March 17, 2021,[8] respectively. According to these documents, doses from ‘Process 2’ batch EE8493Z are listed at four trial sites prior to November 19, and four other sites are listed with ‘Process 2’ batch EJ0553Z in the updated document. Both batches were also part of the emergency supply for public distribution. The CDC’s Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, known to be underreported. lists 658 reports (169 serious, 2 deaths) for lot EE8493[10] and 491 reports (138 serious, 21 deaths) for lot EJ0553.
https://www.bmj.com/content/378/bmj.o1731/rr-2
OBSERVATION - More fodder for the upcoming legal battles and lawsuits against Pfizer et al for fraudulent safety reporting and practices.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Knives are coming out for Rep Jordan as he gains traction to be the next Speaker of the House.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden couldn’t get through a recent press conference with out totally losing track of what he was saying or where he was.
Illegal Immigration –
President Joe Biden’s deputies are offering multiple concessions to Mexican President Andres Manuel López Obrador in the hope that he will conceal the huge and unpopular flow of illegal migrants during the 2024 campaign season.
On Thursday, three of Biden’s cabinet secretaries met with Obrador. He has the power to embarrass Biden during the 2024 campaign with massive, televised eruptions of migrants — such as the September 2021 rush of 15,000 Haitians at Del Rio, Texas.
“The government of Mexico views their control over immigration as a bargaining chip in any conversation they have with the United States,” Jon Feere, a top enforcement official in President Donald Trump’s government, said.
OBSERVATION - The US can no longer act from a position of strength. Mexico’s marxist leaning govt is reveling in its new found strength. All the NGOs that have swarmed into the country to facilitate the movement of the illegals have taken a lot of the pressure off Mexico and now it can look to demand big concessions from the US, while pocketing cash from these NGOs.
North/South Korea –
NK reportedly has started supplying artillery rounds to Russia.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Logistics –
CBS News is reporting that North Korea has started supplying Russia with artillery for the war against Ukraine. The North Korean support for Moscow appears to be the culmination of the rare summit last month in Moscow, when Kim Jong Un traveled by train to meet Putin in person.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 70s with chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Much of the information feeds I monitor are swamped with the Hamas/Israeli war, so current Ukraine war activity is buried. Russia did launch a signifiant attack against Odesa and Chornomorsk cities of Odesa region, possible missile strikes with Onyx missiles overnight, targeting port facilities.
Tokmak Axis -.
Ukrainian Defense Forces have advanced north to Kopani and near Novoprokopivka, widening the salient towards the west.
Russian Territory –
Ukrainian drones targeted the Moscow and Kursk regions
Partisan Resistance ——
A vehicle of secretary of “United Russia” party was blown up in occupied Nova Kakhovka, occupied Kherson Oblast.
OUTLOOK –
Israel has sucked the air out of OSINT reporting on Ukraine. That said, very little has changed and the projections remain the same. Ukraine will continue to make gains in the Bakhmut and Tokmok fronts while both Russia and Ukraine continue their ‘deep war’ of battlefield preparation for their next stages of the fight.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Moldova’s president Maia Sandu says Russia’s Wagner paramilitaries were behind a thwarted coup attempt that aimed to depose her as head of state as part of a campaign to destabilize the country.
Middle East / N. Africa General -
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Iran issue statements blaming Israel for the attack it suffered today by Palestinian terror groups.
Israel –
* THE REGION IS ON THE PRECIPICE OF A POTENTIAL MAJOR REGIONAL WAR.
* Israel has declared a STATE OF WAR for the first time since 1973.
* If Israel invades Gaza, Hezbollah has threatened to attack Israel
* Dozens of Israeli civilians - mostly women - have been taken captive and transported to Gaza - presumably as hostages (and sex slaves).
50 yrs ago, Egypt and Syria launched the Yom Kippur War, with a surprise attack on Israel on the October 6th, 1973. Hamas chose this to effect a repeat.
Hamas in coordination with other terror factions in Gaza, launched a massive surprise attack on the anniversary and on a Shabbat morning as well. So far Hamas has reportedly launched over 5,000 missiles into Israel, locally overwhelming Iron Dome defense. The amount of continuous rocket fire from Gaza at this moment has not been witnessed since 2021.
At the same time, Hamas breached the defensive wall via infiltration by land, sea and air (paraglider) and ground forces poured into border cities, taking control of at least 7. The images of bodies of the murdered civilians are lying on the streets in Israel are being published on social media. Battles are currently taking place in 7 settlements. Some Telegram channels claim that Hamas is holding around 50 hostages in Gaza who were abducted from Israel.
Hezbollah have released a statement saying they are in close contact with the leaders of factions in Gaza and abroad and are monitoring the situation and warn Israel to choose wisely based on the operation. Analysts warn Hezbollah could be encouraged by Hamas’ success and attack from the north.
Mahmoud Abbas issues his first statement:
“We have the right to defend ourselves against Israel and settler terrorism”
Reports of mosques urging Muslim faithful throughout Israel to take to the streets and attack Jews.
An interim statement from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared. He addressed the nation, declaring that this was not an operation, not an attack, but a full-fledged war in which Israel would win. Netanyahu will address the nation at 1 pm local time.
The Israeli army has gone on full war status and at least 10,000 reservists are on call up as well. IAF has commenced some of the most massive bombardments in years. They have not used the ‘knock’ technique commonly used before hitting a multi use facility but going straight ahead with the big bombs.
OBSERVATION - This appears to be a well coordinated effort by Hamas and other Palestinian groups. This also appears to be an Israeli intelligence failure of immense magnitude. It is almost certain that Israel will launch a ground invasion of Gaza - the extent of which is unknown. In the last major conflict in 2021 Israel was poised to strike on the ground but was called off when Hamas ceased its rocket attacks.
This attack by Hamas et al is designed to inflict mass casualties on Israeli citizens. Israel will not stand for that.
Statements by Hezbollah and Abbas threaten expansion of the fighting. This multi front scenario would be a worse case scenario, but one that Israel has been incorporating into its planning for many year now. Should Hezbollah get directly involved, their missiles, along with Hamas missiles would inflict severe damage to Israel as its Iron Dome system would be seriously overwhelmed. Israeli response would be equally severe and a ground war in the north a high likelihood. With that, Iran and Hezbollah may seize the opportunity to launch attacks from its bases in Syria, expanding the fight in that direction as well. Iran may even feel froggy enough to launch ballistic missiles from Iran proper.
Right now one can only hope and pray that such an expansion of the present war doesn’t happen. Its going to be ugly enough as it is as it appears that both sides have taken the gloves off. Even uglier as Hamas parades its hostages around and even kills them to inflict even more terror on Israel.
Let us also not forget that biden opened the cash flood gates and pumped billions into Gaza and the west bank, bankrolling this current attack by Hamas. Oh and don’t forget biden has pumped something like $12 - $14 BILLION back into Iranian coffers. This is another foreign policy blunder by biden that is going to cost a lot of lives.
LATEST -
The Israeli Defense Force appears to be in the process of mobilizing near the border with Syria and the Golan Heights with Defense Channels stating that residents should not be alarmed by the sounds of explosions and gunfire as well as the movement of heavy military equipment through the streets.
Unconfirmed reports that Egyptian parliamentarians informed Israel that in the event of a ground operation in the Gaza Strip, “Hezbollah” will enter the war.
Hamas using drone-bomb dropping tactics used by Russia in Ukraine.
High-ranking Israeli officer, Nimrod Aloni, former Commanding Officer of the Gaza Division, has been captured by Hamas
Situation is very unclear at the moment. The following map depicts based on some early reporting
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F71AJViWAAEqCnq?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Armories across Israel have opened up to allow citizens to get access to their weapons and ammo.
Iran –
See Israel on their support for Hamas.
Lebanon -
Lebanon would face the brunt from any Hezbollah interjection into the current fight between Israel and Hamas. Locals have become increasingly dissatisfied with Hezbollah rule and this may open it up for greater targeting by Israel.
Saudi Arabia –
The Saudi Foreign Ministry called on Saturday for an immediate end to the acts of violence between Israel and the Palestinians.
OBSERVATION - SA is (was?) close to an agreement with Israel that excluded most of the Palestinian claims. Hamas is backed by Iran, SAs arch enemy, so a secondary result of this war would be to disrupt any peace agreement between SA and Israel. Hezbollah has said as much in its statement released overnigh - the statement added that it was a “decisive response to Israel’s continued occupation and a message to those seeking normalization with Israel.”
Syria -
Syria and Russia continue to hammer the Idlib region with artillery and bombs at levels not seen in over a year.
***
Syria is a developing base for Hezbollah / Iranian personnel and assets for a potential fight against Israel.
Mexico -
See “Illegal Immigration” above.
Black Swans
According to research published on September 27 in the journal Science Advances, Seattle is at a higher risk from earthquakes than previously estimated. This is due to what are called multi-fault earthquakes. These quakes activate across two or more faults, creating a quake larger than if just one of the faults ruptured. Though thought to be rare, in modern times such events are becoming increasingly better documented.
So, is Seattle prepared? An estimate in 2005 found that even a magnitude 6.7 earthquake along the Seattle fault today could cause 1,600 deaths and destroy roughly 10,000 buildings, resulting in a total economic loss of approximately $50 billion. A single linked earthquake across the Seattle and Saddle Mountains faults would release roughly 38 times more energy than that.
OBSERVATION - Know the potential threats where you live. Some of us live in earthquake zones not a widely spoken of as the San Andreas, but equally as dangerous. Others in tornado and / or hurricane zones, etc. Our country may be falling apart at the seams politically, but natural disasters currently pose a very serious threat - especially under this regime and its unwillingness to respond.
israel update
Reports have just come out of shooting with Israeli forces. Initial reports point to Israeli forces firing at Hezbollah forces amassing on the Lebanon-Israel border. Hezbollah motorcycles went under fire by IDF forces in Matula, northern Israel. Two were killed.
Israel’s National Security Council approves ground operations inside Gaza.
A Full-Mobilization of the Israeli Defense Force is underway towards the Northern, Eastern, and Southern Fronts of the country. Israeli Defense Officials has stated that they are expecting and preparing for a Multi-Front War with upwards of 100,000 Reservists able to be ordered to active duty within hours if necessary.
Latest reports that Hamas terrorists have penetrated deeply into Israel - affecting an area larger than Gaza.
OBSERVATION - The S is hitting the fan. Israel is going into Gaza and is expecting the Hezbollah supporting attack. You don’t mobilize like this for any other reason.
If Hezbollah carries out its threat, Iran will be involved and Israel may just take the opportunity to launch a strike on its nuclear facilities for good measure.
This potential conflict will cause Ukraine to pale in comparison.
It also threatens to bring Russia into the mix via Syria.
This potential conflict will cause Ukraine to pale in comparison. It also threatens to bring Russia into the mix via Syria.
Biden needs to come down strong on Israel's side and do it quickly. It's too late for Israel to pay off Hunter and the other lowlife dmeocrats selling our blood and treasure... so Biden and goons need to just do what's right and support Israel. The world is watching.
Israel update
- Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has declared a state of emergency in a radius of 80 kilometers from the Gaza border.
- Israeli sources estimate at least 1,000 Palestinians managed to infiltrate into Israel through four different areas. It is the first time since 1948 that these developments are on the Israeli side because they are usually held in Arab areas.
- IDF is fighting Hamas terrorists present in the towns of Kfar Aza, Sderot, Sufa, Nahal Oz, Magen, Be’eri, and the Re’im and Zakim military bases.
- U.N. Peacekeeping Forces in southern Lebanon have been ordered to return to their bases due to escalating tensions between Hezbollah and Israel.
- Erdogan calls for restraint in Israel and Palestine for all parties
- Normal railway operations in Israel have been suspended in order to assist in the deployment of troops and equipment towards the north and south of the country.
- Biden: We warn anyone who thinks of taking advantage of the situation to attack Israel. biden has approved allocation of $8 billion in military aid to Israel
OBSERVATIONS - This is spiraling out of control. Israel is preparing for the big one, the scenario they’ve been facing for many years now.
IMHO - Hezbollah will launch the minute Israeli ground forces enter Gaza and Israel is already prepared to respond in force. Same for Hezbollah and Iranian forces in Syria. It will get very ugly very quickly.
FYI - I’ve got other pressing matters and won’t be able to monitor the situation for several hours. Trust FR will keep its eyes on it.
I24 news reported Israeli forces open fired on Hezbolla approaching from Lebanon border.
Megiddo may be close.
**************************************
israel update
Reports have just come out of shooting with Israeli forces. Initial reports point to Israeli forces firing at Hezbollah forces amassing on the Lebanon-Israel border. Hezbollah motorcycles went under fire by IDF forces in Matula, northern Israel. Two were killed.
Israel’s National Security Council approves ground operations inside Gaza.
A Full-Mobilization of the Israeli Defense Force is underway towards the Northern, Eastern, and Southern Fronts of the country. Israeli Defense Officials has stated that they are expecting and preparing for a Multi-Front War with upwards of 100,000 Reservists able to be ordered to active duty within hours if necessary.
Latest reports that Hamas terrorists have penetrated deeply into Israel - affecting an area larger than Gaza.
OBSERVATION - The S is hitting the fan. Israel is going into Gaza and is expecting the Hezbollah supporting attack. You don’t mobilize like this for any other reason.
If Hezbollah carries out its threat, Iran will be involved and Israel may just take the opportunity to launch a strike on its nuclear facilities for good measure.
This potential conflict will cause Ukraine to pale in comparison.
It also threatens to bring Russia into the mix via Syria.
NewsMax reports that there are two separate instances of hostages
Several Israeli military and civilians have been taken hostage by Palestinians
and have been taken taken back across the border into Gaza.
Israel update.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on Palestinian civilians in Gaza to “leave now” because the Israeli military is going to “turn all Hamas hiding places into rubble”. Israel has cut power to Gaza.
There is information that Israeli troops have crossed the territory of Gaza in the north. Pending verification.
Missiles from Gaza and IAF air strikes continue.
Israeli army sources indicate they have reestablished control over most of the area/cities hit by Hamas ground forces.
Israeli casualties mount as over 300 are believed to be dead and thousands injured.
Title : "Biden Administration Deletes Post Calling On Israelis Not to Respond to Hamas Assault "
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/biden-administration-deletes-post-calling-on-israelis-not-to-respond-to-hamas-assault/
Posted on 10/7/2023, 1:05:03 PM by Skywise
”When Hamas launched a brutal assault on Israel overnight, the Biden administration’s Office of Palestinian Affairs initially called on Israel
“to refrain from violence and retaliatory attacks,” before deleting the post “
There is the Biden administration's response ... rite ?
Satisfied by that response ?
Imagine what the Biden's administration response would be to another 9/11/2001 attack.
I prefer not to even consider his response .
On Oct. 30, 2008, Pres. candidate Barack 0bama said, “We are five days away from fundamentally transforming the United States of America,” and it seems to me that America is going through a fundamental transformation (a spiritual, moral, and economic downward spiral).
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Antifa et al are openly supporting Hamas and its attacks on Israel. Expect them to show up at these Hamas rallies across the US today and in future days.
Terrorism -
ALL - CONSIDER BEING AT A HEIGHTENED STATE OF ALERT, ESPECIALLY IF FIGHTING EXPANDS TO INCLUDE HEZBOLLAH AND IRAN. Though Jewish areas and synagogues face the highest threat level, remember Iran’s mantra “death to America” so other sectors of the country could be at an equal risk - especially to deflect support from Israel.
***
RUMINT - Looking for some verification of this report but it is being noted that in Matamoros, Mexico, directly across the border from Brownsville, Tx, Hamas has a training center at a large factory, used to train young, military age men. These men have been reported as infiltrating into the US.
OBSERVATION - Establishment of sleeper cells by islamic terrorists was a major concern here in TM in the months after 9/11. With the numbers of pro hamas rallies in the US any such sleeper cells would find shelter and support in preparation for any future attack.
***
NYPD, LAPD and Miami cops are deploying extra officers to Jewish areas and synagogues following Hamas terror attack on Israel.
‘While there is no credible threat to New York City at this time, our administration is in touch with Jewish leaders across the five boroughs, and we have directed the NYPD to deploy additional resources to Jewish communities and houses of worship citywide to ensure that our communities have the resources they need to make sure everyone feels safe,’ Adams explained about the extra security.
United Airlines, American and Delta have suspended service to and from Tel Aviv following the unrest.
‘The safety of our customers and crew is our top priority. We are closely monitoring the situation and we are adjusting flight schedules as required,’ United said in a statement.
OBSERVATION - See warning at top of section.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
No US military activity noted or reported in response to the Hamas/Israel war. The Ford CSG is in the Med providing support to the Ukraine effort. The Reagan is at sea near Japan. The Bataan ARG is on station in the Persian Gulf region.
POLITICAL FRONT –
In the face of the brutal slaughter of Israeli civilians, the biden regime is scrambling to put the best face on appeasement payments to Iran and Palestinian authorities.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has approved the release of $75 million in crucial food assistance for Palestinians just hours before the funds were set to be redistributed elsewhere.
Blinken’s decision came after months of pressure from Democratic lawmakers and dozens of civil society groups, who warned that blocking the aid would create a humanitarian disaster for over one million Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.
This follows the release of $6 BILLION in assets held in Qatar that are only to be used for ‘humantarian’ causes, a claim Iran rejected saying it would spend the money as it sees fit. This is on top of $8 billion unfrozen earlier. The regime is trying to claim that these funds could not be used to fund terror, but they are blind to the fact that these funds frees up their money to go to support terror.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden issued an underwhelming statement on the Hamas/Israel war and then shuffled off the platform without answering any questions.
Illegal Immigration –
Illegal immigrants are making demands in Chicago, NYC and other major metro areas claiming “better housing,” “safe food and water,” and “You promised us safe living conditions, but our rights have been violated.”
Even Chicago Alderman Ray Lopez, a fellow Democrat, took shots at the mayor for his handling of the crisis. “Migrant asylum-seekers are now using their vehicles to block streets, perform sex acts and otherwise disrupt life in communities where this behavior wasn’t the norm. To make matters worse, residents now feel that their only recourse is to take action against the migrant asylum-seekers.” Other demands are for more money handouts, job training and better accommodations.
Community sentiment is boiling towards vigilantism in these areas.
OBSERVATION - File equally under CW2 as this is beginning to boil over.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russia saying that Israel should return to its pre-1967 borders and allow the palis to establish their capitol in Jerusalem.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 70s with chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Israeli/Hamas war continues to suck up much of the bandwidth over what is happing in Ukraine. Some reports do get thru. Overnight Russia launched a large rocket strike on Kharkiv, and artillery stikes on Kherson. Ukraine states that they are making progress to the south of Bakhmut as well as west of Robotyne.
OUTLOOK -
Until something substantial happens, most of the reporting will be overwhelmed by Israel info as many OSINT types have shifted their focus to the middle east. Some interesting analysis has come out recently -
“This autumn/winter will be a record for the number of drones that Russia will use against Ukraine. More than 1000 Shaheds were used against Ukraine in the last 6 months of the heating season. Russia used more than 500 drones in September only,” said spokesman of the Ukrainian Air Force Yuriy Ignat.
September has also been a big month for Ukrainian drones as well, softening up Russian air defenses for major strikes by cruise missiles.
Israel –
NOTE - I’ve only viewed a fraction of the abundant photos and videos - mostly posted by hamas - of the brutal and deliberate executions of unarmed Israelis from the start of the war. If you are a palestinian ‘supporter’, support yourself off this site as there is absolutely no justification for these terrorist actions.
Also note - there is an abundance of recycled photos/videos from years past that have been thrown into the mix - don’t accept anything at face value.
***
Remember, in 2005 Israel withdrew from Gaza and left them world-class hydroponics and greenhouses that provided huge amounts of food. These Palestinians promptly destroyed every nice thing Israel left behind - relegating their citizens to living in near stone age conditions.
***
A coincidental coincidence? On Sept. 18-23, 2023, the UN General Assembly met in New York, and the U.S. greatly criticized Israel for settlement construction on the West Bank and refusing to divide the Promised Land.
***
Biden’s office of Palestinian Affairs set out an ill advised Xweet stating -
“We unequivocally condemn the attack of Hamas terrorists and the loss of life that incurred. We urge all sides to refrain from violence and retaliatory attacks. Terror and violence solve nothing.”
Essentially saying Israel should surrender to this level of terror.
The Xweet was later removed.
****
Overnight things are still very fluid and in country reports are conflicting in some ways. Quick summary -
-600+ Israelis killed
-1,500+ wounded
-3,000+ rockets fired into Israel (down from the initial estimate of 5000)
-Dozens of Israeli soldiers and civilians taken hostage and now are POWs in Gaza
-252 Palestinians dead 1,000+ wounded
These numbers are expected to increase substantially. Israeli Police and Recovery Teams have arrived at the site where a music festival for peace was taking place near the border with the Gaza Strip before they were attacked by Hamas terrorists reportedly causing a significant loss of human life; Israeli Officials have stated that they expect the death toll to drastically rise and possibly double now that Teams have reached the festival site.
Israel is still in the process of regaining control of portions of southern Israel taken over by Hamas forces Hamas is still able to get troops and support to these hold out areas. The link below is to a map that generally depicts the situation Hamas is believed to control areas in red
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F76cx1qXYAEDSoT?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Israeli forces liberating small towns and kibbutzes are reporting scenes of incredible brutal murders. Hamas has posted some videos showing their terrorists going door to door in these communities killing who ever they find. Israel has captured dozens of Hamas terrorists in the clean-up process.
Rockets continue to be fired at Israel, but in substantially reduced numbers as the air strikes by the IAF appear to be taking their toll.
Israel has dropped tons of bombs on Gaza, leveling many ‘high rises’ containing Hamas and associated facilities. Israel has largely done away with the ‘knocking’ technique (dropping small bomb on roofs to warn civilians to get out) and striking them outright. Currently, nothing appears to be off limits to airstrikes if Hamas us using them. Overnight IAF hit two mosques being used as control centers by Hamas.
Israel continues the largest military call up since 1973. Israeli citizens who are abroad have reportedly begun to receive phone calls to notify them of their call-up to active military service. In one instance, the Israeli embassy in Greece is starting to arrange flights to take over 5000 of Israeli reservists currently in Greece back to Israel to assist in Gaza war.
Substantial movements of tanks, artillery and other armor have been observed coming out of central Israel and headed for the south, north and east to address the threats from Hamas, Hezbollah and Hezbollah/Iran from Syria - respectively.
The war is spreading -
Overnight, Hezbollah claimed credit for a rocket and mortar attack on an Israeli long-range radar installation on Mt Dov in Northern Israel. This facility is used to detect and track missiles coming from Lebanon and Syria. Israel responded by striking the Hezbollah unit with artillery fire. Security has been Increased at radar and surface-to-air missile batteries in the North of Israel due to the possibility that Islamist factions in Lebanon and Syria may be attempting to “Knock Out the Eyes and Ears of the IDF” which would be used to defend the country against long-range and intermediate-range missiles.
Multiple Israeli tourists shot dead in Alexandria, Egypt by an Egyptian police officer.
Rallies for Hamas are being scheduled around the world today. An Islamic terrorist sympathizing group in Tampa, Florida known as “Resistance of Tampa Bay” is having a pro-HAMAS rally in Tampa, Florida on Sunday October 8, 2023. In the promotion for their event, they said they want to celebrate the “Palestinian martyrs” who murdered Israelis today. They described today’s attacks on Israel as “heroic Palestinian resistance”. Their invitation goes on to say they support “Palestinian liberation and return by any means necessary.”
There’s going to be one in NYC and multiple other cities as well.
Meanwhile, calls from various parts of the world for Israel to exercise “restraint” in the face of the most diabolically brutal attack on Israeli civilians in decades.
NYPD, LAPD and Miami cops deploy extra officers to Jewish areas and synagogues following Hamas terror attack on Israel.
The Israeli nuclear option has been highly rumored about. Not on the table for Gaza - too close to Israel for fallout and damage. This option is on the table if Iran becomes directly involved as it could be used against their nuclear and other weapons facilities. But this is too early in the war to realistically game out this option and there is no evidence that Israel is preparing for such an action (though I’m sure they have there plans being updates as I type).
OVERALL OBSERVATION - Israel is building up for a major invasion into Gaza. Israel has weighed the potential reaction of Hezbollah and Iran and has decided to get it done. The violation of Israeli citizen has crossed too many red lines. IAF and currently engaged Israeli forces will continue the mop up operations in country and keep Hamas pinned down in Gaza so that the invasion force can be pulled together and final operational plans executed. This should take a few days to accomplish as tens (hundreds) of thousands called up reservists fall on equipment and head to assembly areas.
At the same time, Israel is preparing for a war with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria. As with Gaza, the gloves will come off and Israel will be far less restrained targeting Hezbollah positions commonly next to places like schools, hospitals, etc.
Global ‘support’ for Hamas is disgusting, trying to blame Israel for the loss of Israeli lives. So that when Israeli boots hit the ground in Gaza, they will be facing considerable anti-Israeli propaganda. Arab nations are calling for cease fire and deescalation by Israel, potentially knowing that Hamas is about to be taken off the map by Israel.
Hezbollah is on the edge - its fish or cut bait time for them. They are on record saying that when Israel invades Gaza they will enter the war. But I’m not sure they counted on the hornets nest that Hamas stirred up and may be rethinking its commitment. Israel has engaged Hezbollah forces twice already in the past 24 hours and Hezbollah has not taken any retaliation (except perhaps for the Mt Dov attack).
FINALLY - Hamas’ attack should put the final nail in the “two state” solution. They have shown that radical Islam will not live peacefully along side Israel.
Iran –
See Israel on their support for Hamas.
Concerns rising should Iran become directly involved in the Hamas / Israel war, one option they may execute is closing off oil traffic coming out of the region either via mining Hormuz or other naval activity. The US only has an estimated 17 day supply in the strategic reserve, thanks to the regime sell off. The US has increased its presence in the Gulf because of Iranian aggression against shipping in recent months.
Also concerns considering the build up of Iranian backed militias in eastern Syria and the threat posed to US forces in the region.
Syria -
Syrian artillery and Russian air strikes continue to pummel the Idlib area in largely an indiscriminate manner.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Taliban is asking for permission to transit arab nations in order to join Hamas in its fight against Israel.
Mexico -
Mexican president says talk about resuming the construction of the wall is “pure publicity”.
Thank you for Israel reports. I don’t care about Ukraine, but care deeply about Israel. I learned everything I need to know about islam on 9/11.
Thanks for your work, Godzilla.
It may seem very heartless, but I have little concern for the lives of Palestinian “civilians” in Gaza. They actively participated in desecrating the bodies of dead Israelis (and other foreign nationals) brought back to Gaza, they have actively participated in beating hostages brought back alive from Israel, raping women and children as well as encouraging their children to beat captured Israeli children. This is on top of their celebration of the attack. This makes them participants in Hamas’ warcrimes (as well as committing their own war crimes) - knowing full well what they were doing. They have kept Hamas et al in power. They FAFO’d
Economy –
Oil prices have jumped on concerns that the situation in Israel and Gaza could disrupt output from the Middle East.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed by $2.25 a barrel to $86.83, while US prices also rose. On Monday morning, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude, the US benchmark, was up $2.50 a barrel at $85.30.
Uncertainty over how events could develop in the coming days may also drive investments into US Treasury bonds and the dollar, which investors traditionally buy at times of crisis, said James Cheo from HSBC bank.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
I want to preface this section with a quote I found on X made by Carl Benjamin -
“Today you were given a view into the depths of the beating, bloodthirsty heart of the left. “
“You finally got to see the very bottom of the pit of resentment contained within: applause for the rape of women and the murder of children. This is the true left that lurks beneath the polite norms of civil society. This is the left which admits that there is no act so savage that they will not condone it if it brings about “liberation”.”
“When a group arises that does have the means, no matter how barbaric, they will vicariously revel in the bloodshed because that is what THEY want to do to YOU. Every time they call you an oppressor, this is what they ultimately want YOUR fate to be. “
“Their only regret is that they themselves do not have the fortitude or opportunity to carry out such atrocities. This is what these people really believe and passionately desire, and you are trapped in this civilization with them.”
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted many times here the hatred by the left towards the right - even to the point of violence. Carl hits the nail on the head, these leftists are more than willing to switch this towards Americans HERE.
***
Democrat Socialists of America (DSA) facilitated numerous pro-Hamas rallies yesterday across the nation. The DSA was even giving Antifa riot tips to their members and supporters for this event. (NYC Times Square). The DSA has always maintained close ties to violent militants in the U.S. as they share the same political targets. Some violence was noted -
* Fights reportedly broke out at a pro-Israel rally in Fort Lauderdale Florida.
* Major clashes between Hamas supporters and a pro-Israel group in Kirkland, Washington.
* Fight broke out between pro-Israeli and pro-Palestinian protesters in San Diego, California
OBSERVATION - Antifa and BLM expressed their support for these pro-Hamas events as well. For Antifa - the potential violence between Jews and Palestinians in the US may serve as a spring board for them to use to resume 2020 levels of violence.
Terrorism -
This warning was out there over a week ago -
ATF is apparently warning firearms dealers about intelligence showing criminal networks plan to buy .50 cal and/or belt fed rifles in the next 2 months via straw purchasers.
Now combine this with the Hamas/Israel war and the 61,471 migrants from “Special Interest Countries” entered the United States in Fiscal Year 2023. According to a source speaking to Breitbart from within CBP, most of the migrants, mainly single adult males from countries subject to travel warnings by the U.S. State Department due to terrorism, were released into the United States to pursue asylum claims.
The number of migrants from special interest countries climbed by more than 140% from fiscal year 2022 when Border Patrol agents encountered more than 25,500 Special Interest migrants across the southwest border. In all, more than 86,000 “Special Interest Aliens” made the crossing in two years.
According to a 2019 DHS fact sheet, the term “Significant Interest Alien” (SIA) is defined as follows:
“Generally, an SIA is a non-U.S. person who, based on an analysis of travel patterns, potentially poses a national security risk to the United States or its interests. Often such individuals or groups are employing travel patterns known or evaluated to possibly have a nexus to terrorism. DHS analysis includes an examination of travel patterns, points of origin, and/or travel segments that are tied to current assessments of national and international threat environments.”
NOTE - the ATF warning as a precursor to the Hamas invasion, combined with the growing probability that terrorists of many flavors, have entered this country has given many cause for increasing concern. How long before these groups of military age migrants crossing our borders turn into violent terrorists?
There are not current terror warnings issued for the US at this time.
It is being postulated that should Israel Gaza, or Hezbollah/Iran get directly involved that sleeper cells could activate here to cause disruptions to instill fear and try to drive the US away from any further support of Israel.
Combined with a weak administration going into the 2024 elections that appears to be more fixed on making US citizens out to be terrorists rather than searching out real terrorists reeks of weakness - and weakness is what islamic terrorists look for.
Be on the lookout for suspicious behavior here at home. Given the open border we’ve had, it would be stupid to believe no terror cells have entered our country. An attack or multiple once we get involved in the Hamas/Israel war can’t be ruled out.
Highest probable target set will be jewish synagogues and organizations. Secondary targets will be any other agency openly supporting the jews, particularly many evangelical churches.
Secondary targeting would likely be power infrastructure as well as fresh water supplies.
If you live in a major metro area with an abundance of illegals camped out or moslem population - keep your head on a swivel and carry if you can.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group to move to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea as a result of Saturday’s attacks in Israel. The strike group is composed of the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy (CG-60) and Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116), USS Ramage (DDG-61), USS Carney (DDG-64) and USS Roosevelt (DDG-80).
In addition to the repositioning in the strike group, Austin also plans to increase Air Force squadrons of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, F-15, F-16 and A-10 tactical aircraft in the region, according to the secretary’s statement. This amounts to approximately 20-25 jets.
OBSERVATION - Stated mission is a show of support for Israel. Unstated mission could likely include assistance in extracting US citizens from Israel or even special ops strikes to free hostages. Depending on the nature of any attack, the force will self defend and if the source of the attack - Hezbollah and Iran - potentially will continue to launch further attacks, expect punitive strikes.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The biden regime and its media shills are in a massive spin cycle attempting to decouple the millions and billions released to Iran and Hamas controlled palestine over the past few weeks. The central message is that these funds were only for ‘humanitarian’ expenses, but they completely gloss over that funds are fluid and that there is no guarantee that they would be spent strictly on ‘humanitarian’ causes. This is on top of billions to Iran from suspended sanctions relief over the past couple years.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken blew this spin sky high when he admitted to funding terrorism during an interview with NBC News. Blinken, who previously endorsed a $6 billion financial package for Iran alongside President Biden, has now openly admitted that Iran has “unfortunately always used and focused its funds on supporting terrorism.”
Biden / Harris Watch –
While Hamas holds Americans hostage, Joe Biden is enjoying a picnic with a live band.
Illegal Immigration –
NYC looking to cut meals programs for senior citizens in order to pay for supporting illegals.
Growing concerns that terrorists have infiltrated into the US with all the other illegals.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
***
Russian news overwhelmed by the Hamas / Israel war. Monitoring for potential Russian actions in support of Hamas against Israel.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 70s with chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Israel/Hamas continues to flood the internet, but Ukraine continues to chisel out successes in the Tokmok front, advancing west to Verbove of Zaporizhzhia region, and on the Bakhmut front, advancing near Klischiyivka and Andriyivka of Donetsk region, south of Bakhmut.
Tokmak Axis -.
Ukraine interdicted a Russian train carrying ammunition to its forces in the Tokmok region.
OUTLOOK -
No significant changes expected as Ukraine continues to chisel away Russian positions in the Bakhmut and Tokmok fronts.
Israel –
Described as Israel’s Pearl Harbor or 9/11, he war continues to be intense, here is my best summary of the last 24 hours
The Israeli Defense Forces has announced this morning that they have now managed to recapture all settlements and facilities near the border with the Gaza Strip and that while there may not be any active fighting right now with Hamas terrorists they are still likely in the country. IDF also reports finding border tunnels in several areas.
Current Israeli death toll is over has exceeded 700, thousands of others are injured. At the Supernova music festival site alone, 260 bodies were found yesterday.
Gaza’s health ministry says 511 people have been killed, and 2,750 injured.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant - “I have ordered a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed. We are fighting human animals and we act accordingly.”
He also said that attacks on the Gaza Strip will soon begin with an intensity that the region has never seen. “The rules of the game have completely changed”
IDF spokesman says some 4,400 rockets have been launched toward Israel since the fighting started on Saturday morning. Hamas still has the capability for intense rocket barrages, but are not at the same levels of the initial attacks. Iron Dome far more able to handle these 100-200 rocket barrages, but there are still some rockets that manage to make it through to hit civilian areas (not including those that impact vacant areas that Iron Dome is designed to ignore)
A high-ranking Israel Defense Forces (IDF) commander said US weapons left in Afghanistan by the Biden administration were found in the hands of Palestinian groups active in the Gaza Strip.
The IAF has reportedly hit over 800 Hamas related targets since the war began. Gaza is being hit almost non-stop by aircraft, artillery and naval gunfire. IAF hit at least two major ammo sites - Al-Rabat college and Western Mosque in the Beach Camp, west of Gaza City. Massive secondary explosions continued for hours making it clear Hamas was storying weapons at those sites..
Analysts indicate that Israel will likely be ready for its ground assault on Gaza within the next 24-48 hours. 300,000 Israeli reservists have been mobilized (up from the previously announced 100,000). Israeli army is reporting that even more people are showing up than those called, its highest mobilization ever.
Clashes have broken out in the West Bank between Palestinian youths and Israeli riot police
Israeli sources: At least 12 missiles were launched from southern Lebanon towards Mount Hermon and the Upper Galilee.
Multiple nations are working to get their citizens out of the country. Poland and now Brazil are in the process of evacuating of citizens in Israel. Others include Serbia, Romania, Thailand, and Kazakhstan.
CNN has reported the State Department has managed to Identify the bodies of 3 Americans who were Killed by Hamas in Israel over the last few days. Per Israeli ambassador to the U.S. Michael Herzog “We know there are Americans among the hostages [in Gaza]”
White House says ‘several’ American citizens killed in Hamas attacks in Israel
Hamas allegedly in talks to free Israeli women, children hostages in exchange for release of 36 Palestinian women and children from Israeli jails - source Reuters
The deputy commander of Hamas , Deputy Commander of the Southern Division of the Hamas Naval Force in the Gaza Strip, Muhammad Abu Ghali, was captured by an elite Israeli special forces unit
US deploying ships and combat air craft to the region - see “Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments” above for details. US is also suppling artillery, Iron Dome missiles and other ammo to Israel.
A spokesman for Hamas has stated, “The movement of the American aircraft carrier does not scare us, and the American administration must realize the consequences of this step.”
OUTLOOK -
Fully expect Israeli ground assault into Gaza within the next 48 hours. A 300,000 man mobilization - on top of its active duty components - is huge. For comparison, this is a larger force than Russia had for its initial invasion of Ukraine. But a lot of the fighting will be urban or urban rubble which favors the defense - as we’ve seen in Ukraine. The major exception is that Israel will have total control of the air, able to place bombs on targets.
I fully expect to see components of warfare that have developed in Ukraine being employed by Hamas, in particular small drones. It will have some effects on directly attacking Israeli armor and tanks, but I don’t think they have the numbers to be as effective as Ukraine is.
One concern for the US Navy is Hamas threat “. . . realize the consequences of this step.”
There is a possibility that Hamas has some sea borne drones like Ukraine that they may try to use to hit a US vessel. However, they would have to get past Israeli gunboats first. Second concern are Hezbollah anti-ship missiles that have been used in the past to hit an Israeli corvette.
With all probability, Hezbollah will launch attacks from Lebanon and Syria once Israel starts its ground war in Gaza.
One final concern is if things get ramped up, Iran will attempt to close off the Strait of Hormuz and even attack US vessels in the region. Currently there is no aircraft carrier CSG in the region. The USS Reagan is at sea near Japan, but would require a number of days to get to the Persian Gulf region. This would force US strategic bombers and fighter aircraft in the region to deal with the first attacks and counter strikes. Such Iranian actions may cause Gulf arab states to redirect their attention from politically attacking Israel and focus on Iran.
There are many other potential dangers to the US should things go sideways. I’ll look to address them as needed in the future. But this is enough for our plate now.
Iran –
WSJ reports that Iran helped plan Hamas’s attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting last Monday. This is supported by statements from Hamas leadership.
After initially confirming their involvement, Iranian spokesmen are now trying to backpedal the open declaration of their support for the Hamas attack.
***
Iran has announced its initial responses to any attack by Israel or the US
- Will respond with missile strikes on Israel from Lebanon, Yemen, and Iran.
- We will send our fighters from Syria to attack Israel.
Source: Iranian officials speaking to Al Jazeera
Iraq -
Syria -
Leaders and members of the Lebanese Hezbollah militia entered a number of military sites northwest of Daraa, and other sites in the Quneitra Governorate close to the border with the occupied Golan. The reinforcements included drones, Iranian Fajr missiles, and advanced weapons that arrived at military sites in the Daraa and Quneitra governorates. Military reinforcements entered “Tall al-Qa’id,” which is located near the town of Jabab, north of Daraa, and similar reinforcements from foreign militias entered a number of military hills located northwest of Daraa, and Tulul al-Sha’ar and Krum in Quneitra Governorate
OBSERVATION - Hezbollah maneuvering in preparation for an attack on Israel. Likely taking advantage of IAF’s attacks on Gaza to move unhindered.
Turkey –
Blinken - Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and I spoke further on Hamas’ terrorist attacks on Israel. I encouraged Türkiye’s advocacy for a cease-fire and the release of all hostages held by Hamas immediately.
bkmk
Agreed.
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