Globalism / Great Reset –
Pope Francis has published his second document on the topic of “climate change,” condemning “human-induced climate changes” and calling for “obligatory” measures across the globe to address the issue.
There must be “binding forms of energy transition that meet three conditions: that they be efficient, obligatory and readily monitored,” wrote Pope Francis, outlining his hopes for the upcoming COP28 “climate change” conference, which he highlighted as a potentially “historic event.”
OBSERVATION - The pope is demanding that nations be forced to comply with these bogus climate change dictates.
Economy –
General Motors secured a new $6 billion line of credit as the automaker braces for additional strikes by the United Auto Workers union. The targeted strikes have already cost the automaker $200 million during the third quarter, GM said Wednesday. The new line of credit is “prudent” to bolstering GM’s balance sheet amid expectations that the union may expand and prolong strikes against the company, GM CFO Paul Jacobson said.
OBSERVATION - The other two auto makers are probably in the same condition. Not only are the auto makers feeling the pinch, but all the suppliers as well.
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Goldman Sachs economists are predicting that the govt will shut down when the 45 day CR runs out. They estimate that it won’t go longer than two weeks, after that the political ramifications will skyrocket. A lot depends on who the next speaker is.
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Saudi Arabia, Russia, and an OPEC+ panel decided in yesterday’s meetings to keep their voluntary oil supply cuts in place thru December. This could keep oil between $60 - $90 / barrel.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The FBI reportedly is secretly targeting supporters of former President Donald Trump to prevent violence or any major civil disturbances around the time of the 2024 elections.
Newsweek reported Wednesday it spoke to more than a dozen current or former government officials who specialize in terrorism in a three-month investigation about the domestic-security landscape and to evaluate what biden’s regime is doing about what it calls domestic terrorism.
OBSERVATION - At risk of repeating myself, the FBI and other alphabet agencies designated the MAGA base across the country as potential domestic terrorists as far back as 0bama. This is simply the govt conducting battlefield information preparation to feed the narrative to the MSM, as well as justify potential (eventual?) iron fist arrests of regime opponents.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Army is launching a sweeping overhaul of its recruiting to focus more on young people who have spent time in college or are job hunting early in their careers, as it scrambles to reverse years of enlistment shortfalls.
A major part of this is the formation of a new professional force of recruiters instead of relying on soldiers randomly assigned to the task.
Army Secretary Christine Wormuth, in an interview with The Associated Press, said some of the changes will begin in the next 90 days but a wholesale transformation will take years.
OBSERVATION - Hiring ‘professionals’ isn’t going to help. The military / biden regime has demonized the patriotic demographic that normally fills the volunteer ranks - designating them as hate groups, domestic terrorist, etc. Why serve in the military for a regime that despises you and will throw you under the bus as in Afghanistan.
POLITICAL FRONT –
A ruling on Tuesday by the US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit marks a leap for the safeguarding of free speech within the social media arena. This decision sees the addition of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) to a preliminary injunction in the ongoing legal contest of Missouri v. Biden.
The CISA, described as the “nerve center” of federal government censorship, is responsible for censoring the American public, facilitating collusion between the feds and social media companies, and interfering in our elections. The court’s original opinion, which addressed the White House, FBI, CDC, and Surgeon General, did not include CISA.
The court stated that CISA “shall take no actions, formal or informal, directly or indirectly, to coerce or significantly encourage social-media companies to remove, delete, suppress, or reduce, including through altering their algorithms, posted social-media content containing protected free speech,” according to an excerpt provided sources.
OBSERVATION - Keep cross referenced under CW2. The regime is trying to shape the information battlefield for 2024 and this is a major stumbling block for them. This will not stop them because they have repeatedly demonstrated the willingness to violate court orders/decisions commonly by doing work arounds using other actors.
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Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said the House GOP should eliminate the single-member Motion to Vacate rule after former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) ouster, adding that Americans expect a functioning government.
OBSERVATION - The swamp discovered a weakness in the system and after only ONE successful effort over the years they have to change it. Some believe that the democrats had a back room deal to prevent this from happening to McCarthy, but reneged on it (hence Pelosi losing her special office space).
Illegal Immigration –
DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas now claims there is ‘IMMEDIATE NEED’ to waive regulations and BUILD BORDER WALL in Texas as immigration surges..
Biden’s administration is to build a section of border wall in southern Texas in an effort to stop rising levels of immigration.
Around 20 miles (32km) will be built in Starr County along its border with Mexico, where officials report high numbers of crossings. Building a border wall was a signature policy of Donald Trump as president and fiercely opposed by Democrats.
Dozens of federal laws have been waived in order to approve its construction, including the Clean Air Act and Safe Drinking Water Act.
According to a proposal by US Customs and Border Protection, the barriers will consist of large bollards embedded in a concrete base, as well as gates, cameras and CCTV equipment.
Homeland Security said it would use funding secured during Donald Trump’s presidency to build the new section.
OBSERVATION - The regime is buckling under pressure from democrat mayors and governors swamped with illegals, killing budgets and the rise of citizen resistance to the establishment of illegal facilities. Violent crime by illegals is growing - kept under wraps by the MSM- but very noticed by the people with illegals in their communities across the nation.
This also comes to bear as Mayorkas testified under oath that the border was secure and there was no illegal immigration problem.
This is too little, too late to make any meaningful reduction in crossings before the 2024 elections.
***
Chiago’s mayor tried to pitch a plan for an illegal immigrant ‘colony’ at a pubic meeting. Attendees shouted him down and were against the proposal.
OBSERVATION - The flood of illegals has the potential to seriously bite democrats in 2024 - hence the renewed fence building noted above.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
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Russian Black Sea Fleet moved most of its ships from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk.
All three operational submarines of Project 06363 (Kilo-class), both frigates of Project 11356 (Admiral Grigorovich-class) & one patrol ship moved to Novorossiysk.
Project 1135M (Krivak-class frigate), five large landing ships, and, apparently, the bulk of small missile ships are also in Novorossiysk.
Another part of the ships - one large landing ship, two small missile ships and both new minesweepers of Project 12700 (Alexandrit-class) - moved from Sevastopol to Feodosia.
A reduced number of Russian air/missile strikes the last few days due likely to the Russian Navy maneuvering assets further away to prevent Ukrainian attacks and VKS parts and munitions resupply issues.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 70s with chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
More Russia drone attacks, majority intercepted by Ukraine ADA. Judging from the reported targets, they may be focusing on trying to hit Ukraine logistical facilities.
See Russia for the major redeployment of the Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea.
Russian Territory –
Ukraine reportedly hit a S-400 SAM in Belgorod region of Russia overnight
OUTLOOK –
For a country with virtually no navy, Ukraine has forced Russia to withdraw to ‘safer’ ports on the eastern margins of the Black Sea. As noted above, this may be one of the reasons fewer Kaliber missiles have been launched - Russia fears entering the primary launch zones in the Black Sea because of roving drones and extended range anti-ship missiles. Expect low missile support from the fleet to continue for the near future.
The Russian S400s still show vulnerabilities to Ukraine drones. They are expensive and in very limited quantities. The Belgorod strike helps open drone flight lanes towards Moscow.
Action on the southern and eastern fronts are still obscured by OPSEC and other fog of war issues. Still, Ukraine is systematically pushing Russians out of their positions, based on some valid sources.
It went back way before Obama. The first big lie story was there was a 'vast right wing conspiracy' (Clinton era) We dodged that series of lies when Hillary 'spilled the beans' about that 'secret threat', Her one action open the lie up the light of day and people laughed about how stupid it was.
I'm sure the goons and thugs of today's budding young police state are up to their old tricks. I'm sure there's a story out there that paints all conservatives as terrorists with only 'the insiders' getting to know the details. So our task to save the country is to trip them up into telling or having to prove their lies.
I suspect Biden's giving us hints as to what the lies are this time... something that makes us 'dangerous. They can't be basing all this planning to arrest or harm conservative based only on Jan 6th. It's still just one day - no fires, no graffiti, no real deaths other than one woman vet murdered at point blank range by a capitol police officer.
So they have more - a story - a secret that "those in the know" will 'hint' at it because it's so cool to be in on a secret like this. We need a Hillary to blurt out the lie but we probably won't be that lucky again.
So we need to listen carefully - gugure out what the lie is and debunk it. How? By demandomg proof of what the lie is...
Economy –
The average rate on the benchmark 30-year home loan rose to 7.49% from 7.31% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.66%.
Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, popular with homeowners refinancing their home loan, also increased. The average rate rose to 6.78% from 6.72% last week. A year ago, it averaged 5.90%, Freddie Mac said.
OBSERVATION - The home loan and housing sector are hemorrhaging and there is no relief in sight. Further, economists are expecting mortgage rates to hit 8% soon.
***
The bond-market sell-off that’s sending yields soaring is starting to eclipse some of the most extreme market meltdowns of past eras.
Bloomberg reported losses on Treasury bond with maturities of 10 years or more had notched 46% since March 2020, while the 30-year bond had plunged 53%.
Those losses are nearly in line with stock-market losses seen during the worst crashes of recent history — when equities slumped 49% after the dot-com bubble burst and 57% in the aftermath of 2008.
Compared with previous bond-market meltdowns, long-term Treasurys are seeing one of the most extreme undoings in history. The losses are over twice as big as those seen in 1981 when 10-year yields neared 16%.
OBSERVATION - dangerous harbingers being largely ignored by many economists trying to sell a soft landing narrative. This trend won’t be reversed until rates start to fall.
***
Word out of the oil patch is that US shale producers are reluctant to increase drilling and production even though prices are approaching $100/barrel. IMHO this is due to the current administration’s energy policies and Wall Street’s attempts to direct capital away from fossil fuel projects.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
In a CNN interview, Hillary Clinton calls for the “deprogramming” of Trump supporters.
OBSERVATION - Noting this under this category because hillary’s comments are not new but calling for essentially violence against the right. Numerous mouthpieces on the progressive left have been insinuating the same since trump was elected. “Reeducation” camps have been immensely popular with the former Soviet Union and China. Any effort to try to force this on the right will result in a hot civil war - let there be no doubt. This is also why the alphabet govt agencies are accelerating their categorization of so called “MAGA” supporters - making their lists and checking them twice - so they can try to move on Americans before significant resistance can build. Prototype model is the treatment of J6 political prisoners.
Such is all over X as the following (now deleted account) posted -
“American conservatism is a mental illness that needs to be eradicated through reeducation camps and forced labor”
***
More fallout from the recently disclosed efforts by the FBI to monitor supporters of former President Donald Trump, even creating a “distinct category of domestic violent terrorists” to target MAGA loyalists based on their political views.
The FBI is denying the allegation.
OBSERVATION - The day is coming when the regime will try to lock up its political opponents. We’ve seen the beta runs already with the arrests and treatment of J6 prisoners as well as how they’ve gone after pro-life leaders. The day that happens will be a dark day and a day of reckoning.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
On Thursday The Wall Street Journal has learned that the Pentagon is set to significantly cut its fighting force among special operations units. But the controversial plan is already receiving significant pushback among top brass overseeing special warfare and training of foreign allied forces.
The Journals’ sources spell out that the cut is motivated by a shift in strategic priorities away from the Middle East and especially toward the “China threat”.
“The Army is cutting about 3,000 troops, or about 10% from its special-operations ranks, which could include so-called trigger-pullers from the Green Beret commando units who have conducted some of the nation’s most dangerous and sensitive missions around the world, from the jungles of Vietnam to the back alleys of Baghdad,” writes the WSJ.
OBSERVATION - Decades of low intensity conflict globally and now facing near peer threats from China for a conventional by its very nature calls for a force realignment. Problem is, the current crop of pampered princes in the pentagon are doing a crappy job at this realignment. I don’t really have much confidence in their ability to get their act together in the future either.
POLITICAL FRONT –
After talk of being nominated for the position himself, Trump has endorsed Jim Jordan for speaker of the House! Jim Jordan is one of the most popular members of Congress among many GOP voters and has no problem holding corruption accountable.
OBSERVATION - The next republican speaker has to be hardened against and knowledgeable of the ‘system’ that the house operates on in order to counter the well honed procedural fights the democrats have carried out over the years. He also has to be principled enough to carry forward a unified republican vision and agenda.
Illegal Immigration –
OVERALL OBSERVATION - biden regime has switched to a panic mode, polling and blue city and state pushback making it evident - a disaster is in the making for the 2024 elections because of out of control illegal immigration.
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Since Biden took office, he has refused to deport illegals back to Venezuela, but the massive amounts of illegals that are inundating Democrat strongholds like NYC are forcing him to take action.
The Biden administration will deport Venezuelan migrants found not to have a legal basis to remain in the U.S. back to Venezuela, senior administration officials announced Thursday on a call with reporters.
Venezuela agreed to accept the removals, but the administration officials dodged a question about if any concessions were offered in reaching a deal. The number of Venezuelans encountered crossing the southern border illegally made up roughly a fourth of the more than 200,000 total recorded encounters in September, according to CBS News.
The White House announced in September that it’s providing 242,700 an existing temporary protection designation in addition to roughly 472,000 Venezuelans expected to qualify for the new designation to receive work permits and stay in the U.S. without fear of removal.
OBSERVATION - Wow, talk about policy reversal. First was the restart of the border fence, now aggressive deportations. Blue city/state pushback has been substantial and it appears that the progressives are wetting themselves because their policies are turning the sheeple against them.
***
Restart of the border fence by the regime has caused leftist heads to explode all over the place, while the right calls it disingenuous. biden trying to cover their action by saying the construction was mandates by ‘law’ and they had no other choice. The left is not accepting that fig leaf, considering how much biden has ignored other laws to push its agenda.
China –
National elections in Taiwan are fast approaching and the pro-independence Democratic People’s Party (DPP) candidate is leading in polls. One key policy is the declaration of independence from the mainland, formalizing the split. There is talk that such a move has already gained approval from US and related allies and that they’d back it up with their militaries.
China has been both covertly and overtly working to influence the elections and derail the DPP. China may conduct more aggressive naval and air exercises around the island as the election approaches to discourage voters from supporting the DPP. If DPP wins and officially declares independence, then China will have little other option than to open full aggression against Taiwan. Most likely initial course of action is a naval blockade followed by an actual invasion that would likely include some kind of preemptive strike on US carrier groups and other allied naval presence.
***
Chinese Coast Guard vessels are actively blockading the Philippine owned Scarborough Shoal, in an effort to starve out a Philippine Marine Corps outpost. On Wednesday, two Philippine supply ships broke through the blockade to deliver supplies to the beleaguered outpost.
OBSERVATION - Things are heating up in the region and with the announcement that the US has burned through much of its stockpile in support of Ukraine, China may become even more aggressive.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Putin says Russia will deploy a nuclear powered missile ‘soon’.
This comes after a successful test of a nuclear-powered and nuclear-capable cruise missile with a potential range of many thousands of miles.
Putin also declined to rule out the possibility it could carry out weapons tests involving nuclear explosions for the first time in more than three decades.
State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin about the withdrawal of ratification of the The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT): “The situation in the world has changed. Washington and Brussels have unleashed a war against our country. Today’s challenges require new solutions.”
Satellite images circulated last month indicated that Russia had recently built new facilities at a remote Arctic island location where Soviet nuclear tests were previously conducted.
NOTE - putin is unstable enough to actual conduct some atmospheric or sub surface tests to reinforce his nuclear threats.
RUMINT-
Reports coming out that Russian naval forces have spread mines in the western Black Sea region in order to disrupt civilian shipping to/from Ukraine. This activity seems to be corresponding to the redeployment of Russian naval vessels from Crimea to Russian ports further east.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 70s with chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia has resumed greater use of Iskander ballistic missiles for attacks against Ukraine. These missiles are much harder to shoot down and have been using them to target clearly civilian targets over the past two days. These include hitting a hospital and an open air market, killing dozens of civilians. At the same time, Russia continues its drone assaults with Ukrainian air defense shooting down 25 of 33 Shahed drones overnight.
Bakhmut Axis -
Reports that Ukraine is holding and even expanding its breach of the Russian defensive lines along the N-S railroad south of town.
Kherson Axis -
Unconfirmed reports that heavily depleted units from the Tokmok fight are being shifted to this sector to free up more capable units as well as to reman and rearm.
Russian Territory –
Russian Telegram channels report that an electricity substation in Kursk region is on fire. Power has been lost to dozens of smaller villages.
OUTLOOK –
Nothing breaking at the moment. Russian counter attacks on the Tokmok front are not moving the Ukraine forces and face substantial artillery strikes from Ukraine.
Syria -
Syrian and Russian forces launched the largest attack in the Idlib region in many, many months.
Turkey continues to pursue attacks on kurdish elements in northern and northeastern Syria. Those attacks resulted in US fighter shooting down aTurkish drone .
The drone deemed a threat to US forces in northeast Syria. Prior to the shoot down, U.S. troops were forced to take shelter in bunkers after Turkish airstrikes came within 1km of their operations base.
***
At least 100 people have been killed and around 240 others were injured in a drone attack that hit Homs, Syria during a military graduation ceremony.
According to Syria’s Minister of Health, Hassan Al-Ghabash, drones equipped with explosives attacked a military college graduation ceremony in the western Syrian city of Homs on Wednesday, killing around 100 people, including women and children, and injuring hundreds more.
“In a preliminary toll, the terrorist act that targeted the graduation ceremony of students at the Military College in Homs led to the death of 80 martyrs, including 6 children, and the number of injured was 240,” Hassan Al-Ghobash said.
Syria’s military said in an earlier statement that as the ceremony was closing up, drones armed with explosives targeted the crowd of young officers and their families.
The military reportedly blamed the attack on terrorists “backed by known international forces” and stated that “it will respond with full force and decisiveness to these terrorist organizations, wherever they exist.”
No group has reportedly claimed responsibility for the attack. In an earlier statement, the defense ministry blamed “terrorist organizations supported by well known international parties.”
OBSERVATION - This could be the cause of the massive uptick in Syrian / Russian attacks on Idlib region (see above)
Turkey –
The government is mounting a nationwide campaign against the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party), in the wake of a PKK bombing in the capital Ankara. The Kurds are the largest ethnic minority in Turkey and one of the largest ethnic groups in Europe without a country of their own. Most of the Kurds are in southeastern Turkey, northern Iraq and northwestern Iran.
OBSERVATION - Turkish actions in N and NE Syria threatening stability in the region. See Syria above.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Reports that N-K is a virtual ghost town now that Armenians have left and fled to Armenia.