Posted on 01/01/2023 6:02:12 AM PST by Godzilla
Threats surround us on a daily basis. Being able to recognize them and react are essential. This is ongoing commentary of those threats
“McDonald’s will also rename the charge from “service fees” to “royalty fees,””
Royalty fees? Are they telegraphing a merger with Burger King?
P
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Mass BLM-inspired looting broke out in downtown Philadelphia after a judge dismissed charges against a police officer who shot dead a Latino man in a car who was armed with a knife. The direct action was organized by the Party of Socialism & Liberation.
OBSERVATION - This riot/looting was going to happen no matter what the verdict was. Philly police did manage to arrest several dozen looters, but the damage is immense. Some are saying that Philadelphia shows how bad it’s gonna get next year. The massive, organized looting of the past year has definitely taken root in the entitlement class, but this is about the first time in recent that an event of this size was pre-organized.
IN RELATED, Target closing 9 stores in these dark blue metro hell holes due to massive theft and crime.
***
New reports that citizens in Chicago are getting tense over growing crime and violence associated with illegal migrant holding facilities. Many note that the situation is beginning to boil and could explode into violence against citizens as well as between ethnic groups in these shelters. Major note is the reports of illegals getting drunk/drugged up and harassing passerby as well as stoking tensions within the facility.
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted the potential for violence spring from these facilities as military aged males with too much time on their hands and coming from cultures that have condoned violence to get what they want will eventually explode. In cities like Chicago, NYC, etc - the police are so understaffed that they can no longer keep a lid on the crimes committed by the local establishment class (see Philly above), let alone by concentrated numbers of illegals.
***
Three illegals kidnapped a SoCal teen and held him for $500K ransom. Law enforcement was able to quickly track them down and rescue the teen unharmed.
OBSERVATION - Kidnappings like this are common in central America, particularly Mexico and Venezuela. With the current chaos at the border, I fully expect that incidents like this will increase and become more common.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Trump reportedly to meet with UAW strikers today.
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NY Judge claims Trump vastly overstated his assets and ordered his business dealings in NY to be eliminated. On the top of the judge’s list is the grossly understated value of Trumps Mar-a-Lago worth approximately $20 million. This could bring some interesting Trump lawsuits for over paying property taxes for the land in the most prized part of Florida with substantially smaller surrounding properties currently assessed at more than $20 million.
***
Senate announced a “bipartisan” measure to avert a govt shut down. Reportedly there are enough republicans in the house to back the bill and get it passed. Not a done deal, but time is running out. The Senate’s CR was expected to fund the government at “present levels” with roughly $4.5 billion worth of Ukraine aid and $6 billion for disaster relief funding tucked into it. The bill also includes about $1.65 billion for economic support for Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - The bill may get passed, but the contentious items such as Ukraine funding and continued deficit spending remain a burden.
Biden / Harris Watch –
With both feet, biden jumped in with full support of a $40/hr increase in wages, a major UAW demand. He next shuffled off to the coast for a fundraiser. This was just a shameless photo op to try to regain support from union members and to make them believe he is for them - while OTOH, killing their jobs in exchange for EVs.
Illegal Immigration –
A lot of bleating that biden saw the explosive push of illegals and did nothing about it. That isn’t totally correct IMHO, he not only saw it but he encouraged and facilitated it.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures decreasing from the 70’s to the 60’s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Admiral Sokolov killed in missile strikes ??? Russian channel Zvezda published an interview with the commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet - likely to show he was not killed in the Sevastopol strike. Sokolov says that the Black Sea Fleet is successfully carrying out its tasks.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russians hit Orlivka-Isaccea crossing (Romania) at night, 20 trucks damaged along with a school bus full of children.
Fighting has intensified along the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts, but few details are currently available.
Tokmak Axis -.
Mandatory Ukrainian evacuations of families with children from Hulyaypole, Preobrazhenka, Yehorivka and Novopavlivka in Polohy district also Stepnohirsk of Vasylivka district of Zaporizhzhia region. This is potentially to remove them from Russian deeper attacks as the advance south of Robotyne continues.
OUTLOOK –
Well, the Admiral Sokolov saga is an interesting twist. Still some questions about his appearance, but it is a blow to the Ukraine credibility.
OPSEC and fog of war making assessments of what is happening on the ground difficult to sort out. Evidence of major fighting on the Tokmok axis, with Ukrainian forces now being reinforced with armor/tanks exploiting and widening gaps in the defenses.
Bakhmut, fighting to the south of the city continues to push Russia forces to the east. The current front line - a railroad line - is not proving to be adequate for Russians. North of the city, Ukrainian forces reportedly have fixed Russian units in place and incapable of influencing the fight around Bakhmut.
As always, things can rapidly change.
Israel –
During the past few days, the Iran-backed Palestinian terror group Hamas has again been encouraging Palestinians living under its rule in the Gaza Strip to march toward the border with Israel and attack Israelis. Similar protests in 2018, also encouraged and sponsored by Hamas, resulted in the death or injury of hundreds of Palestinians.
Hamas is now sending Palestinians to get killed or injured on the border with Israel because it is apparently upset with its friends in Qatar, the Gulf state that has long been supporting the Muslim Brotherhood organization, of which Hamas is an off-shoot. Hamas is evidently taken aback because Qatar has reduced the monthly financial grant it has been providing to the Islamist movement in the Gaza Strip over the past five years.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19997/hamas-sending-palestinians-to-die
OBSERVATION - Typical moslem move - send the cannon fodder forward in order to force a political issue linked to money.
Black Swans
People love to shake out the Yellowstone Supervolcano threat every so often. Yes, geologically the threat is there, but there are greater ones around the world to consider first. The Campi Flegrei, Italy area is one such area. The last eruption at this volcano, from September 29 to October 6, 1538 (VEI 3), formed the Monte Nuovo cinder cone.
It has a history of intense volcanic and seismic activity. Episodes of bradyseism—slow ground movement—accompanied by seismic swarms have been observed in the past, particularly during 1969-72 and 1982-84. More recently, ground uplift in the Rione Terra area reached approximately 113 cm (44 inches) by July 2023.
The area is currently experiencing a seismic swarm consisting of approximately 64 events, with magnitudes ranging up to 4.2, has been observed since 05:06 LT on September 26, 2023.
Seismologists and volcanologists monitoring the event say that the current activity is nothing to be concerned about in the short term.
Our world is dynamic and its history is one marked by cataclysmic events such as super volcanism. This densely populated region in Italy continues to be a risk to the locals, but adjacent lands as well. Know your local hazards and prepare appropriately.
Fall is a beautiful time here in the Redoubt, the yellows, oranges and red against the green of pine forests is fabulous . It is also a time of holding our breath that the night time lows don’t exceed out plastic greenhouse ability to protect our ripening tomato and other crops for a least another week or so. Such is the hazard of a high, mountain valley for crops.
Economy –
Bank of America’s CEO Brian Moynihan believes that the Fed has ‘won’ the fight against inflation and we are going to have a ‘soft’ landing. However, his views ignore the resurgence of inflation over the past two months and the ripple of sharply increasing fuel prices through the economy that will drive inflation even higher. IMHO this is a big dose of hopium.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Various black activists are calling Tuesday’s looting spree (as well as probably also referring to the coordinated looting throughout Blue metro cities) a form of ‘reparations’. This justification for continued crime - combined with a lack of law enforcement / criminal prosecution - will only guarantee its continued growth.
IN RELATED - Pennsylvania Liquor Control Board Press Secretary Shawn Kelly said all state-owned Fine Wine & Good Spirits stores in Philadelphia will be closed until it is safe to reopen after 18 of the state-owned liquor stores were looted overnight Tuesday.
OBSERVATION - From posted videos of the looting, the black community won’t be hurting for a while given all the liquor they stole on Tuesday.
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OVERALL OBSERVATION - The pressure gauge caused by illegals is in the red zone - I know I’m repeating myself here. Some 7 million plus illegals that have come in during biden’s reign are the powder keg that could explode next year. We’ve seen what uncontrolled immigration has done to portions of europe and you darn well better believe the same is headed our way. 2024 would be a perfect time for such an explosion. Combined with the restitution seeking sectors of society the potential for violence exceeding 2020 are at an all time high IMHO. All is needed is a spark. Will the illegals going the BLM/Antifas? Will it become illegals vs restitution blacks in a fight over crumbs falling off the democrat master’s table?
So far the majority of the illegals are being moved into established blue states/cities (with the exception of Texas). It is harder to place them into other red states due to the clear lack of facilities to house them, combined with the fact that the feds would get strong push back. That may soon shift with the feds trying to force crushing numbers on red states to overwhelm their resources as well as resistance to the govt.
I really can’t see just what the details will be and how things will play out, but I’m sure that this illegal invasion will be a key component of the likely domestic turmoil and violence being forecast by some in 2024.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Pvt. Travis King has been turned over to US custody after a short stay in NK.
NK determined that as a low-ranking serviceman he had no real value in terms of either leverage or information. They probably decided that King, 23, was more trouble to keep than to simply release him.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Continued warnings concerning wuhan outbreak this fall / winter and the push to get more people jabbed are falling more and more on deaf ears. However, compliance using masks, etc. that have been demonstrated to be ineffective are still worming their way into compliant areas of society such has health care and schools.
POLITICAL FRONT –
There are rumors that Fox hosted a republican candidate debate last night and no one gave a rats rear end.
***
The biden criminal family is under increasing pressure as more and more evidence of criminal pay to play schemes keep coming out of the wood work. And the MSM is doing very little to try to paper over the damage.
***
Trump spoke to strikers overnight, finding substantial and vocal supporters among the leftist leaning union.
Illegal Immigration –
A red NYC borough has successfully fought back against housing illegals in a school that was to be rehabbed and put back as a school. This was a significant pushback to Mayor Adam’s attempt to apply the NY ‘right to shelter’ law - a law specifically for citizens - onto all illegals and to force the problem into other sectors of the city. The judge has ordered NY to remove the illegals that were placed in the school ASAP.
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Texas has repaired the section of concertina wire that was cut for a second time by border patrol agents this week. As with military barriers, only those sections that have forces to respond to breaches will remain intact. TX needs to station its Rangers on these sections and arrest any border patrol personnel attempting to cut the wire again.
China –
Shares in crisis-hit Chinese property giant Evergrande have been suspended in Hong Kong amid reports its chairman has been placed under police surveillance.
It follows reports earlier this week that other current and former executives had also been detained.
Thursday’s market statement did not give a reason for the trading halt.
But it marks another low for the heavily indebted property giant which defaulted in 2021, triggering China’s current real estate market crisis.
OBSERVATION - The threat of a full blown Evergrande collapse weighs heavy on the Chinese economy. If Evergrande defaults, banks and other lenders may be forced to lend less. This squeezes capitol needed or business growth / expansion and maintains the current doldrums of the Chinese economic engine.
***
China’s Defense Ministry announced on Thursday that China and Saudi Arabia will hold joint naval drills next month in China. The exercise, dubbed “Blue Sword 2023,” will occur in Guangdong province and focus on maritime counterterrorism operations.
OBSERVATION - China’s increasing its influence on the middle east and Saudi Arabia in particular to gain one thing - oil security.
North/South Korea –
NK has incorporated nuclear weapons in its constitution. Also deported the US Army private who defected a few months ago.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Logistics –
Open source satellite imagery shows that Russian is working hard to improve the rail network in southern Ukraine in an attempt to support alternative ways of getting supplies to forces via the ‘land bridge’, probably in anticipation of more attacks that close off the Kerch Bridge or even destroy it.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Wagner force elements are struggling to reestablish their effectiveness under new chains of command. Having returned to the fight, they have not been the force to be reckoned with as before.
Economic Impact –
Shortages of domestic gasoline and diesel has caused Russia to cease export and retain those stocks for domestic as well as war support.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures decreasing from the 70’s to the 60’s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Admiral Sokolov keeps showing up in videos suggesting he is still alive. However, these videos contain no material as to the dates they were taken, so there is still a degree of skepticism over claims of his being alive.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine got their game back up overnight shooting down 34 of 44 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight. NOTE - Increasing reliance on the Shahed drones vs their other missile supplies.
Increasing fog of war and OPSEC blotting out a clear picture of what is happening on the front lines. Even most of the Russian milblogger sphere has gone silent. That which is seeping out on the periphery still indicates that Russian is still trying to reinforce its southern Ukraine positions and that the Ukraine breakthrough south of Robotyne is expanding and Russians are taking a pounding and losing ground.
Tokmak Axis -.
Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine is hitting the region south of Robotyne with a battalion sized (4 armored companies) force backed up by major artillery support.
Bakhmut Axis -
Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has penetrated the most recent Russian line of defense along the N-S railroad south of Bakhmut.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Shahed drone hits reported in Kirovohrad region overnight
OUTLOOK –
The Ukraine deep war appears to be at a strategic pause as they reassess successes and identify targets for the next round.
Progress on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts, though clouded, are following established trends by the Ukraine army and are not outlandish. Last week claims that the dragons teeth and armor ditch portions of the Russian defensive line were breached and now is evident that Ukraine armor is helping to press the attack. In Bakhmut, Russian last week were forced to retreat and reestablish a defensive line along the rail line. Ukraine apparently is pressing the attack before they can be prepared. Typical.
Turbulence that has developed between Ukraine and European allies has been very rough and threatening Ukraine supply chains. Issues are being worked through but the extent of damage to relations has still occurred. Poland is not going to cut off its nose to spite its face - it realizes that they are Russia’s next target should Ukraine fall and it is better for them to have Ukraine fight than them.
As with everything during this war, conditions can change very rapidly.
Belarus -
Observers note that the camp set up months ago for Wagner forces has now been mostly taken down.
Saudi Arabia –
See China above.
Venezuela -
US Chevron is resuming petroleum operations in conjunction with the Venezuelan govt.
Central / South America General-
Costa Rica has declared an emergency over the surge of illegals coming through the country from Panama. Evidence is that numbers coming through the Darin Gap have reached astronomical levels and NGOs are spending large amounts of money to facilitate that movement.
took the day off yesterday to stock up on supplies at a case sale, then drive thru the wonderful autumn forests of the Redoubt to a hot springs and soaked for a while.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Like father, like daughter - John Kerry’s daughter has urged government’s to urgently ramp up the WEF’s depopulation propaganda so that the public are mentally prepared for the culling of billions of humans.
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The World Economic Forum (WEF) is pushing for the criminalization of “climate inaction,” according to a recent article.
“Is climate inaction a human rights violation?” the headline read.”
On Wednesday, a lawsuit went to the European Court of Human Rights, brought forth by six young individuals against 32 European countries. The six individuals are alleging that the countries’ have failed to address the “climate crisis” caused by human activities.
“It’s being described as “unprecedented” in terms of potential impact,” the WEF stated.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/09/climate-progress-human-rights-violation/
OBSERVATION - In addition to more draconian measures, WEF pushing the limit in other venues such as this. They rely on subservient elements to do their dirty work as they cheer (and guide) from the sidelines.
***
Billionaire climate activist Bill Gates wants farmers to stop using fertilizer, a plan that has already been tried, with catastrophic consequences for food supplies and costs.
Gates denounced fertilizer and livestock as two of the biggest contributors to the global climate change menace, during a recent episode of his Unconfuse Me podcast. Gates commented that “of all the climate areas, the one that people are probably least aware of is all the fertilizer and cows, and that’s a challenge.”
Two years ago, the Sri Lankan government made the decision to ban chemical fertilizers, a decision which ultimately led to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa being forced to flee the country amid an economic crisis - which was, in part, catalyzed by dramatically reduced crop yields.
However, according to a report from the World Food Program, as a result of the sudden shift to total organic farming, “the total cultivated extent declined by 26 percent, resulting in a 52 percent yield loss after the policy change.”
“Suddenly,” Stossel noted, “the same farms produced much less food. Food prices rose by 80 percent.” What resulted thereafter were riots and protests, culminating in the storming of the presidential mansion and President Rajapaksa’s subsequent flight and resignation.
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted Gates efforts against agriculture before. True to WEF tactics, a compliant govt was found to essentially ‘beta test’ the plan. The results are predictable. To the WEF, Sri Lanka is expendable, but the lessons learned will be used to apply to the rest of the globe. Already this year Netherlands is seeking to close up nearly the entirety of its agriculture system, Ireland culling hundreds of thousand of cows, even Canada. etc. Famine is a prime, though unstated goal in the WEFs global depopulation agenda - coming soon as they can secure control in subservient countries.
Economy –
The length and depth of govt response to the impending shutdown will have variable impacts on different sectors of the economy, ranging from air travel, to parks, to transportation, etc. It appears that democrats have no desire for negotiation - and the conservative republicans the same. Both are needed to pass any bills.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Milley is officially out at the Chair of the Joint Chiefs, in comes General Affirmative action.
***
The USS Ronald Reagan left port this morning after almost two weeks of failures to launch.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Govt shutdown looks to be unavoidable at this stage. Reports are that the regime is looking to impose the shutdown in ways that hurt the country the most - taking a page out of 0bama’s book.
CNN shock poll places the plurality of the blame on the democrats for any shutdown.
***
Biden’s impeachment proceedings is on and the circus in high gear.
***
RFK Jr is looking to go independent - political pundits saying he will pull votes from both Rs and Ds. IMHO, biden will be hurt the worst as Kennedy reflects the more moderate base of democrats, which will force biden to the center - at the risk of the ruling leftist progressive controllers of the party.
***
DiFi kicked the bucket and now comes the great discussion of her replacement. As i noted in an earlier post, harris ‘ name has popped up on the list. Names that have been discussed to finish Feinstein’s term include Holly Mitchell, a Los Angeles county supervisor; Angela Glover Blackwell, a civil rights lawyer in Oakland and the founder of PolicyLink, a research and advocacy nonprofit group; and Shirley Weber, the California secretary of state, according to the Times.
TV’s Oprah Winfrey also has been mentioned, according to The Associated Press.
He has said he would not select any of the declared candidates — Reps. Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam Schiff — for the seat.
Illegal Immigration –
Border patrol continues to sever the concertina fence constructed by TX and lets illegals come in.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree setting out the routine autumn conscription campaign, calling up 130,000 citizens for statutory military service, a document posted on the government website showed on Friday.
All men in Russia are required to do a year-long military service between the ages of 18 and 27, or equivalent training while in higher education.
NOTE - This is a routine call up and unlikely to have any effect on the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures decreasing from the 70’s to the 60’s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 30 of 40 Russian Shahed drones overnight. Drones targeted areas of central Ukraine.
Fierce fighting continues along the Tokmok axis, but fog of war / OPSEC by both sides hiding the extent and progress. That which does leak out shows Ukraine continuing to successfully clear our Russian trenches and widening the breach. Russia has committed its remaining effective VDV units to the Tokmok fight.
OUTLOOK –
Russia has laterally transferred its few combat effective VDV forces into the Tokmok region. This seems to have slowed Ukraine’s pace a bit, but it still has the major tactical advantage.
Europe / NATO General –
Sweden’s largest opposition party, the Social Democrats, want the Swedish Army to be deployed against gangs formed from migrants. Yesterday , 2 men were shot to death & a 25-y-old woman was killed in a bombing of her apartment building.
OBSERVATION - Sweden has been blessed by ‘diversity’, as these gangs are based in the massive numbers of ‘migrants’ living in the country and in some locations - taking over areas. Coming soon (or is it already here) to the US.
***
A Russian drone crashed near Galati, 21 km from the Ukrainian border into Romanian land at 2.5 km from a town with a population of 270,000. NATO air police are currently on high alert and flying fighter jets at low altitude.
OBSERVATION - Russia has become increasingly sloppy in its attacks against Ukrainian shipping facilities, and specifically those grain related, that border with Romania. Romania will eventually be forced to down these wayward drones before they reach the country - engaging them over Ukraine. Danger of escalation is high.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
US - “We are monitoring a large Serbian deployment along the border of Kosovo,” including “unprecedented forward deployment of artillery, tanks, and service members.” “We are calling on Serbia to withdraw those forces.”
In response, NATO considering increase in deployment to northern Kosovo.
OBSERVATION - Most recent incident involved Serbs killling Kosovan police and then holing up in a monastery with a load of military grade weapons this week. The Serbs have been beating a war drum for the past year and more. If they take any action it will be based on their perception that NATO is too tied up with the Ukraine war to have any effective response.
Israel –
Treaty talks with Saudi Arabia continue to move forward in spite of sticking points concerning the Palestinians.
Saudi Arabia –
See Israel above
Central / South America General-
The Biden administration has forged confidential pacts with Ecuador, opening the door for the deployment of U.S. military forces, both on land and on the sea for the South American nation.
The arrangement covers “status of forces and maritime law enforcement agreements.” The maritime component grants permission for U.S. military vessels to operate in the waters off the northwestern coast of South America, a region frequently exploited by Colombian drug cartels for cocaine trafficking, a state spokesperson confirmed to the Washington Examiner on Friday.
OBSERVATION - The key focus is the attack on cocaine trafficking. Drug cartels are undermining the stability of the Ecuador govt and they need the help. This also helps to restore US military presence in S America, something that has been in decline in recent years.
Black Swans
NOAA is announcing that the El Nino is officially in effect and that it has reached ‘super’ levels. Combined with a strong forecast “polar vortex” no one knows as to what this winter will bring.
Bill Gates is delusional if he thinks we can get anywhere near the crop yields we're getting now with third world farming techniques. Mr. 'more money than brains' Gates needs to realize he lucked out with his great timing of the software market but that doesn't make him a genius in every field...
Not delusional, but a cold hearted murderer knowing full well third world techniques fail
I suspect you’re right. Not even Bill Gates could believe third world farming techniques would feed a country - no less the world.
Globalism / Great Reset –
In a statement issued by Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, she announced that new “energy efficiency regulations” are on the way that will directly impact residential natural gas furnaces. It’s not a “ban” in the traditional sense, but the new efficiency requirements being proposed will either be impossible to achieve or will drive the price of these furnaces beyond the reach of many working-class American homeowners. (Fox News)
OBSERVATION - Using regulatory power to bypass congress and force WEF energy destroying policies on America is what the WEF is all about. I wouldn’t be surprised if my current 98+% efficient forced air furnace fails to meet her criteria.
Similar forced change overs from natural gas are crippling England - with mandatory replacement using heat pumps - literally the most INEFFICIENT way of heating a home in a cold, wintery climate.
Terrorism -
See discussion of Chinese illegals plus other potential sleeper cells under “Illegal Immigration” below.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Oct 4th is the primary day for a nation wide test of the emergency broadcasting system. This has been updated to include pinging every cell phone in the country, as well as TV and radio. Coincidence that on Oct 3d Russian is conduction a nation wide drill as well (see below under Russia).
I do not view the Oct 4th test in a dark way as a harbinger to some other disaster. Others out there on the tin foil fringe do however.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Congress managed to pass a 45 day CR yesterday to kick the budget plan down the road. The package drops aid to Ukraine, a White House priority opposed by a growing number of GOP lawmakers, but increases federal disaster assistance by $16 billion, meeting Biden’s full request. The bill funds government until Nov. 17.
However, that wasn’t the only circus. Democrat Congressman Jamaal Bowman is being questioned by Capitol police after pulling fire alarm before a House vote. In an ‘apology’, he claimed he thought the well marked FIRE ALARM was the mechanism to open a door. At the time democrats were attempting to delay a vote on a portion of the CR - and a fire alarm seemed to work just right.
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If the Democrats and Republicans nominate current President Joe Biden and Trump respectively, and Kennedy runs as a third party, 33 percent of Democratic voters would “likely” vote for him, as per the recent Rasmussen Reports poll, including 14 percent who would be “very likely” to back him. Among likely voters as a whole, 25 percent said they would likely vote for Kennedy if he ran against Biden and Trump, including 14 percent of Republicans, with 10 percent saying they are “very likely” to cast their ballots this way.
OBSERVATION - This is mind numbing bad new for democrats. Not only will they need to fabricate votes to top Trump, but fabricate votes to counter those lost to Kennedy.
One has to wonder - why has biden regime continued to refuse to provide Secret Service protection to Kennedy?
Illegal Immigration –
High-end burglaries are reportedly growing across Oakland County, Michigan . In some cases – hundreds of thousands of dollars in valuables are gone, and it’s believed an international crime ring is behind it all.
“If you see something, say something,” said Sheriff Michael Bouchard, calling on residents to look for anything out of the ordinary.
He says that transnational gangs are coming primarily from South America targeting wealthy communities in the US. Bouchard said they are casing and targeting high-end residences, grabbing cash, jewelry, watches, precious metals, high-end purses, and electronics.
“We estimate there are crews and operations all across the country in a pretty substantial number,” he said.
OBSERVATION - This is only one stage in the oncoming crime and violence we can expect from this uncontrolled flooding of our nation by illegals.
***
Experts believe that more than seven million illegal immigrants have crossed the border since *President Biden occupied the White House.
The MSM downplay the situation by assuring us the invaders are “families,” even though most of the videos we see are of single, military-aged men, frequently from Venezuela. (NOTE - Venezuela emptied out most of its prisons a few years back)
OBSERVATION - The article goes on to express continued concerns over the numbers of Chinese males seeking into the country. A very real concern is that they are all a part of a special ops wing of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
We may be facing dozens of ‘sleeper cells’ by factions all over the globe. Since 9/11 islamic sleeper cells have been a concern, particularly with the growing ambition of Iran / Hezbollah to destroy the ‘great satan’ as part of its genocidal plans to eliminate Israel. With current geopolitical changes being brought forward by the biden regime’s deliberate destruction of this country, big openings for an aggressive China to establish the same. We already know they have secret ‘police stations’ in major cities across the nation targeting Chinese dissidents here as well as a well entrenched espionage system in our colleges and businesses stealing secrets by the bucketload. In the event of a conflict over Taiwan, these cells could cripple the country’s power grid or internet. Its just the type of warfare their doctrine describes.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitri Medvedev threatened to kill British instructors on Ukrainian soil, calling them British NATO specialists. Also Medvedev threatened to hit German factories, referring to the expected Taurus missile deliveries to Ukraine.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia is set to conduct its first nationwide nuclear attack drill. This drill will span 11 time zones and will simulate a nuclear attack from the West.
It is scheduled to take place on October 3rd and will see the West as the nuclear aggressor. The one-day nuclear attack exercise, which has only ever been done region by region, will include preparation for the destruction of up to 70% of Russian housing stock and life support facilities.
OBSERVATION - It is reported that Russia over the past decade, has invested heavily in nuclear shelters to try to protect a substantial amount of its citizenry against a nuclear attack. These shelters are concentrated in the areas of high ethnic Russian populations - leaving other ethnic group areas across the country essentially unprotected. The expansion of drills like this indicate that the Kremlin is taking nuclear war very seriously. Here in the US you can no longer find any fallout shelters — they’ve all been decommissioned. No more air raid sirens either (I remember growing up and hearing the periodic test).
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures decreasing from the 70’s to the 60’s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Reports now that the UK will be transferring the official training program for the Ukrainian military to Ukraine, meaning British Forces (officially) on the ground in Ukraine training.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Poor night for Ukraine air defenses as they only stopped 16 of 30 Shahed drones overnight. Kryvvi Rih and Odesa regions were targeted.
News on the action on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts is pretty obscure. Rumors that Russia was forced to commit its 24th CAA in the Bakhmut - Kupiansk region indicates things are not going well. The 24th CAA is only a partially reconstructed army group that some analysts considered to be Russia’s operation reserve.
Russian Territory –
Ukrainian drones striking an plane factory in Smolensk, Russia this morning. That’s nearly 300 km away from the Ukrainian border. Another drone attacked Trubchevsk of Briansk region.
Drones also attacked the Sochi airport.
OUTLOOK –
No clarity on events on the front, only general concurrence that Ukraine is till taking ground.
Russia still seems to be at a loss and unfocused on everything except defense at all costs. What few quality VDV forces they have left are being chewed up on the Tokmok front, the scraped together 24th CAA is on the receiving end in the Bakhmut region. Russian high command is reportedly under pressure to regain the initiative but lacks the resources to do so.
Russia is also treading more and more on thin ice against Romania (see Europe / NATO General below). It is almost as if they are trying to get NATO into the fight in some way. Not a good idea, as a NATO/Ukraine force would seize air superiority and it wouldn’t be pretty for Russian ground forces.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania’s Defense Ministry reveals that Russia is waging electronic warfare against Romania. Daniel Petrescu, the Army Chief of Staff of Romania, says Russia is “actively & constantly” jamming GPS communications of ships in Romanian waters, increasing the risk of collisions.
OBSERVATION - Electronic warfare is an act of war that Romania could cite to activate Art 5 protections under NATO. Russia walking a very fine line here.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Additional movements of the Serbian Armed Forces have been reported near the Kosovo Border.
The 1st Infantry Battalion of the Princess of Wales’s Royal Regiment stationed on the Island of Cyprus have reportedly begun to move into Kosovo in order to reinforce the NATO Peacekeeping Forces already in the country.
Serbia’s president on Sunday denied U.S. and other reports of a military buildup along the border with Kosovo, complaining of a “campaign of lies” against his country in the wake of a shootout a week earlier that killed four people and fueled tensions in the volatile Balkan region.
OBSERVATION - Situation developing into the most serious Serbian force build up in recent times.
Syria -
Syrian opposition-affiliated outlets reported an Israeli airstrike on an “Iranian weapons shipment” making its way from Syria to Lebanon, near the town of Ad-Dimas, west of Damascus.
Turkey –
Turkish officials report that two terrorists conducted an attack in Ankara against the Headquarters of the Ministry of Interior. Casualties reported. The incident isreported to be contained with one terrorist shot dead and the other perpetrator detonating their explosive device on their person. Other casualties are reportedly minor injuries to Police/Security Forces.
Putin's protecting Russians - and our 'elties' have decommissioned our Shelters and Security systems. That said I'm sure DC 'elites' have protected themselves...with new Shelters after publicly walking away from their older shelters.
White liberal 'elties' butter their own bread' with our money - and don't even leave crumbs for the people. How typical.
October is here, along with all the numerous discussions concerning potential “October Surprises”.
Reminder, Oct 4th is the national Emergency Test message. Many Reynolds aluminum stockholders predicting dire effects from this alert.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The biden regime is still pushing for some sort of internet censorship in spite of being slammed by the USSC over previous efforts to flag articles and silence critics on big tech platforms. In an interview with ProPublica on Sunday, biden expressed that there are essentially no gate keepers to what is posted on the internet and that ‘misinformation’ abounds.
OBSERVATION - biden reflects the globalist consensus that all speech on all platforms has to be censored in such a manner that only the approved narrative is expressed and endorsed. Same old, same old we’ve seen used in the Soviet Union, China and the myriads of tyrannical dictatorships across the globe.
IN RELATED - Canada is in the process of forcing all podcasts originating in country to register with the state. The Online Streaming Act, formerly Bill C-11, goes into effect on Nov. 28, meaning any online streaming service that operates in Canada and generates revenue of more than $10 million in a given year will have to register with CRTC.
Having a registry of podcasts would make it easier to censor those not holding to the official narrative.
Economy –
Trucking employment has declined significantly. Historically, when we see trucking employment declining, that has been an indicator of recession, reflecting reduced production and demand for goods.
End of FY 2023 reports will start dribbling out soon and the question is not if they will be bad, the question is just how bad. They could provide indicators of just what we could be looking at for a recession in 2024.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Continued rumblings under the radar from radical Antifa elements trying to come up with scenarios that could be exploited to generate a 2020ish wave of violence across the nation.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
The scientists who wrote the Correlation Research in the Public Interest report, published on Sept. 17, 2023, and hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed, quantified the vaccine-dose fatality rate (vDFR) for all ages — which is the ratio of inferred vaccine-induced deaths to vaccine doses delivered in a given population, the Epoch Times reported.
The researchers calculated a mean all-ages fatal toxicity by injection of vDFR of one death per 800 injections across all ages and countries. According to the Times, this equates to 17 million COVID-19 vaccine-related deaths all around the world from 13.25 billion injections as of Sept. 2, 2023.
It was also discovered that the overall risk of death induced by COVID-19 vaccines is 1,000 times greater than it was previously reported in data from clinical trials, adverse event monitoring and cause-of-death statistics obtained from death certificates, the news source added.
OBSERVATION - Take a deep breath as these numbers are astronomical and pending confirmation. We already know that the ‘excess death’ rate among the jabbed is substantial, combined with the definite heart damage/deaths. If these numbers hold out -then the jab will be demonstrable as a genocidal agent.
***
A new scientific study by Nakahara et al. tested COVID-vaccinated people to see if they have “silent” changes in heart muscle function that standard radiology tests could detect.
Scientists measured myocardial 18Fluorine-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) uptake. F-FDG has molecular similarity to glucose. However, 18F-FDG does not metabolize like glucose. Therefore, PET scans could detect it, and its presence shows the heart muscle’s abnormally high demand for glucose, indicative of abnormal cardiac function. More about it here.
Conclusions: Focal myocardial 18F-FDG uptake seen on oncologic PET/CT indicates a significantly increased risk for multiple myocardial abnormalities.
https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.230743
OBSERVATION - The mountain of evidence against the mRNA jabs continues to grow and the thing is Pfizer/Moderna and the govt knew these things and went ahead anyway.
IN RELATED - Using official government data for deaths in England and Wales between 2010 and 2022, former BlackRock portfolio manager Ed Dowd and his partners at Phinance Technologies found that excess death rates from cardiovascular diseases were up 13% in 2020, 30% in 2021, and 44% in 2022, which “point to a worrying picture of an even greater acceleration in coming years of deaths & disabilities.”
https://phinancetechnologies.com/HumanityProjects/Resources/Project Brief - UK Cardiovascular 15-44_091723.pdf
***
Katalin Kariko of Hungary and Drew Weissman of the United States won the Nobel Medicine Prize on Monday for work on messenger RNA (mRNA) technology that paved the way for Covid-19 vaccines.
OBSERVATION - No mention about the deadly side effects of the so called ‘vaccines’ have had on the general population. The papering over of the jabs must be maintained.
POLITICAL FRONT –
California Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed EMILY’s List President Laphonza Butler to fill the seat of the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, elevating the head of a fundraising juggernaut that works to elect Democratic women who support abortion rights, according to a person familiar with the decision.” Politico reported. Butler is registered to vote in Maryland, not kalifornia.
OBSERVATION - She is a rabid pro-abort and a massive money machine for democrats. Some reckon newscum is placing her there to preload her to raise a snot load of money for his undeclared presidential run.
***
McCarthy’s last-minute deal with House Democrats to get a clean CR passed in the House has exposed deep features in the republican majority in the House as well as caused Senate RINOS to rear their heads. The flare up of infighting may cost McCarthy his speakership and throw the House into a prolonged fight over his replacement. All this works to the democrats advantage in that it will cause the 45 day extension to descend on the country and they’ll get their ‘republican caused’ shut down.
***
The Federal Communications Commission’s attempt to reinstate the internet policy known as net neutrality faces a major stumbling block in the form of Supreme Court scrutiny, according to some of its critics.
Under Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel, the FCC released a new proposal on Thursday that would recategorize internet service providers under Title II of the Communications Act. This change would place them under additional regulations to ensure the ISPs do not discriminate or throttle content from various websites. Such a move would be a return to 0bama-era net neutrality rules.
OBSERVATION - Discussion focuses around the legality of such a move as similar govt regulation court cases have gone against the govt as exceeding their legal authority.
Illegal Immigration –
Things have gotten worse at the border. Initial data for September shows that over 260,000 illegal aliens were encountered. This is the highest number in a single month ever recorded. And it gets worse.
Border Patrol agents assigned to the nine southwest border sectors apprehended more than two million migrants for the second consecutive year. September’s apprehension of approximately 218,000 migrants pushed the Fiscal Year 23 report to just over two million migrants, according to unofficial Border Patrol reports reviewed by Breitbart Texas.
OBSERVATION - This does not include the ‘got aways’ that number in the tens (hundreds?) of thousands. This trend has total apprehended illegals to exceed 7 million by the end of biden’s term in Jan 6, 2025.
IIRC, at the start of the Trump presidential term, the estimated number of illegals in the county was placed at about 12 million. biden will have nearly doubled that number in just 4 years.
China –
An informal Bloomberg News survey of 15 analysts and money managers based in Hong Kong and mainland China indicate that worsening malaise in China’s real estate industry threatens FY 2024 growth. Six of them listed housing woes as the biggest risk for equities for the final quarter of 2023, followed by geopolitical tensions.
OBSERVATION - Continued concern over this sector of the Chinese economy and there is currently not off ramp.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Three foreign cargo vessels left the ports of Odesa and five more are entering today, according to Marine Traffic. It hasn’t been this busy in months. Russian attempts at a naval blockade of Ukraine clearly not working.
Economic Impact –
Russia is getting around oil embargoes by selling to China and India and receiving payment in yuan.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 70s with chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
RUMINT –
There are no immediate plans to deploy military instructors to Ukraine, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Sunday, rowing back from comments by his defense minister who had suggested troops could carry out training in the country.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Relatively quiet on the Russian drone/missile front, only a few drones reported but an increased number of repurposed S300’s shot at Kharkiv.
More unconfirmed reports that Ukraine continues to exploit tactical advantages in Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.
OUTLOOK –
Fog of war continues along side OPSEC. A lot of unconfirmed reports of Russians scraping up what VDV forces they can to try to blunt the Tokmok push. Ukraine allegedly going to the ‘rope a dope’ - digging in and smashing the Russian counter attacks.
Europe / NATO General –
Bulgaria introduces ban on entry of cars with Russian license plates. The restrictions will apply to both cars and trucks. Croatia and France have also joined the ban on cars with Russian license plates. Additionally, Czechia has become the second country after Germany to record a precedent of confiscation of cars with Russian license plates.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
In addition to the 1st Infantry Battalion of the Princess of Wales’s Royal Regiment which has already begun to arrive in Kosovo from their Base in Cyprus; the U.K. Secretary of Defense has announced that 500-1,000 Troops from the British Army will also arrive in Kosovo over the next week in order to Reinforce the NATO Peacekeeping Force in the Country, which already includes over 400 British Soldiers.
NATO confirms strengthening of KFOR with 200 soldiers to join a 400-strong UK contingent already exercising in Kosovo. Says it’s a “prudent step” in order “to fulfill its UN mandate: to maintain a safe and secure environment and freedom of movement for all people in Kosovo”
RUMINT - Kosovo Police Director, General Gazmend Hoxha has announced that Intelligence has been received which shows that the Serbian Armed Forces are possibly preparing to annex a number of areas in Northern Kosovo near the border and that the attack last week in the Village of Banjska is part of the initial staging for this operation.
He further stated that the operation in Banjska had a number of short and long-term goals, one of which being the establishment of an underground network which would be used to bring weapons and paramilitary soldiers into Northern Kosovo; the Kosovo Security Force has already discovered multiple stockpiles of untouched weapons near the village since the attack.
OBSERVATION -
Bigger NATO ‘tripwire’ against rumors of upwards of 4 Serb brigades forming near the border. Are the serbs gambling that NATO is too tied up in regards to Ukraine to effectively respond?
Iran –
Iran can produce enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb in less than two weeks, the United States warned as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday held a security assessment with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant that focused on threats from the Islamic Republic.
“It is assessed that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapons program at this time,” US Defense Department stated in a report it published on Friday called the “Strategy for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction” in 2023.
OBSERVATION - The commonsense consensus is that Iran has the capability to enrich uranium to the 90% threshold in to enough quantities necessary to create the heart of a nuclear bomb in a short period of time. That is no surprise. Israel’s intelligence collectors would know of such an achievement as soon as it happens - an event that Israel has said would trigger war.
IMHO, the assumption that Iran “is not pursuing a nuclear weapons program” is bogus. A weapons program covers a wide degree of efforts, from making a bomb, creating a warhead, and creating weapons delivery systems. Those last ones continue unabated. Explosive design is largely now a days a computer operation with component testing (minus nuclear material). Activities that can be conducted fairly covertly.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Reports are that nearly all of the ethnic Armenians have left or in the process of leaving the disputed N-K territory.
Black Swans
“Trigger event” - that amorphous happening that is the last straw on the camel’s back that causes things to collapse and go sideways. In my assessment, so much of America resembles a line of dominos that just about any severe shock could ripple out and take vast amounts of our country down - economically, socially, militarily, governmentally, etc.
Wuhan demonstrated that the global powers that be will pounce on any similar event and that if you’ve followed here, are setting themselves up to exploit any global episode even more effectively than before.
In my daily readings of the tea leaves, I can’t discern one potential trigger as standing out more than the others. I do strongly suspect that events surrounding the 2024 presidential elections may well serve the cause for the left, but at high risk. Right now potential candidates include -
* Hard landing recession / economic crash
* Political assassination(s)
* Political related violence and protests
* Uprising of the millions of illegals / rise of cartel crime
* China / Taiwan
* Russia / NATO direct conflict
* Major west coast natural disaster (San Andreas or the Cascadia zone)
* Schism between red and blue states (fed gov).
My preps are continuing to be developed along a general collapse of the US scenario - things are aligning up to no other result.
ping above
ping above
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Thanks!
Economy –
10-Year Note Yield hits 4.70% for the first time since October 2007, now up 430 basis points since the March 2020 low.
This comes with massive issuances of US Treasury bonds to cover deficit spending which are flooding bond markets and sending yields higher.
JPMorgan’s Lebovitz: “If rates continue to rise the way they’ve been rising, there will be a financial accident. Something will break and that will get the Fed moving in the other direction.”
OBSERVATION - These rates have spiked strongly upward over the past few days causing much concern in the markets. Some wonder if we see 8% mortgages this month? Others see that things are swinging grossly out of balance.
Gold / Silver prices also dropped sharply in response to the data.
****
The US national debt is growing faster than the economy, per CNBC. Although the debt-to-GDP ratio has receded slightly, the total federal debt still amounts to 120% of GDP, according to the Office of Management and Budget.
OBSERVATION - Some talking heads are poo-pooing these numbers but that doesn’t deny the fact that the US is getting behind on its debt or that the interest on the national debt is exceeding that spent on the military. Throw in an extended recessionary period and things only compound.
***
The UAW’s simultaneous yet limited strike against all Detroit’s Big Three automakers continues with no end in sight. Ford executives warned Friday in a media briefing that a prolonged work stoppage at its assembly plants would not only hurt the company, but could lead to as many as 500,000 workers at suppliers being laid off.
OBSERVATION - UAW perhaps sees that its all or nothing demands are not going to gain a lot of traction, nor will an industry destroying full fronted strike. The current tactic may be close to maintaining pressure for concessions without killing the goose that laid the golden eggs. The effects are now beginning to spill outward with the potential layoffs of workers for parts suppliers. That could trigger other layoffs and economic impacts to the communities they reside in.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The police chief who led an August raid on a small weekly newspaper in central Kansas resigned Monday, just days after he was suspended from his post and following the release of body camera video of the raid showing an officer searching the desk of a reporter investigating the chief’s past.
Marion Police Chief Gideon Cody’s resignation was confirmed to The Associated Press both by Mayor Dave Mayfield and City Council member Ruth Herbel, following an announcement by Mayfield at Monday’s council meeting. Mayfield had suspended Cody on Thursday for reasons that have not been made public. In a text message Monday night to the AP, he said he couldn’t answer questions about the chief’s resignation “as it is a personnel matter.”
Cody stepped down weeks after a local prosecutor said that there wasn’t sufficient evidence to justify the search of the Marion County Record or searches at the same time of the publisher’s home and Herbel’s home.
OBSERVATION - This is a continuation of the search and seizure in a little 1,700 person town. That this would happen shows that police corruption can actually be deeper in small towns versus big cities. The ‘Boss Hogg” effect. Citizens must be vigilant to keep thugs like this out of power. Cody is facing one civil rights trial with others pending.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Pentagon Comptroller Michael McCord told House and Senate leaders that the Department of Defense is running out of funds to replenish U.S. military stocks that have been sent to Ukraine, and only $1.6 billion of the appropriated $25 billion for Ukraine is left.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Donald Trump appeared for his trial in New York City on the civil fraud charges that were brought against him by Democratic Party activist Letitia James. The judge essentially threw out 80% of the case because the statute of limitations was exceeded. Much of the remaining lawsuit surrounds the absurd valuation of Trumps property in Florida.
***
The republican civil war in the house has gone hot with Gaetz making good on his threats and filed a motion to vacate the chair against Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
OBSERVATION - Pundits already suggesting that this move will fail and that democrats will pull his fat out of the fire only to use it as a tool to push for a congressional swing back to the democrats in 2024. Democrats know full well to let their opponents destroy themselves on their own and not get involved.
Cyber attacks/warfare –
Johnson Controls International (JCI) this week reported in a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that it had suffered a cyberattack that caused disruptions to its internal IT infrastructure.
Gameel Ali, a researcher at Nextron Systems, shared a tweet including a ransom note from cybergang Dark Angels in its VMware ESXi encryptor, stating: “HELLO dear Management of Johnson Controls International! If you are reading this message, it means that: your network infrastructure has been compromised, critical data was leaked, files are encrypted, backups are deleted.” The note went on to say, “The best and only thing you can do is to contact us to settle the matter before any losses occurs.”
The gang has allegedly stolen over 27TB of data and encrypted the company’s VMware ESXi machines in a ransomware attack.
Johnson Controls serves as a government contractor, providing building automation services to facilities, such as HVAC, fire, and security equipment. Due to the nature of those services, officials at DHS are raising concerns about compromised information such as DHS floor plans. According to media reports, officials detailed in an internal memo that Johnson Controls holds “classified/sensitive contracts for DHS that depict the physical security of many DHS facilities.”
OBSERVATION - Damage assessment ongoing.
Illegal Immigration –
Significant impacts across major, blue citys as they are running out of places to house these illegals and they are running out of time as winter approaches.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia may be planning to test a new nuclear powered missile in the Artic, according to the New York Times. The 9M730 Burevestnik (NATO designation SSC-X-9 Skyfall) is believed to be a nuclear-capable AND nuclear-powered missile that Russia has been unsuccessfully testing over the past years. All of the previous test failed, as the mini-nuclear engine failed to engage. It theoretically, could clear 23,000 km according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative.
RUMINT-
RUMINT. Russian forces have suffered extremely heavy losses during failed counterattacks at Adriivka, Klishchiivka and Bakhmut. Russian Milbloggers suggest Russian Western Dist. Commander, LTGEN Andrei Ivanovich Sychevoi, may have been relieved for cause.
Kerch Bridge update –
Satellite photos show Russia working to replace the final section of the bridge damaged in the latest attack. This raised the potential that the bridge may be fully reopened soon.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 70s with chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 29 of 31 Shahed drones and Iskander-K missile, attacks focused on Odesa and Kryvyi Rih areas.
Virtually little to no solid information on the progress of the war on the ground. That which is rising to the top indicates that Russian forces are conducting numerous counter attacks to push Ukrainian forces back in the Tokmok sector as well as around Bakhmut.
Evidence growing that Russia has replaced at least 2 of the S400 batteries in Crimea with new systems. These systems theoretically provide coverage of all Crimea, but are located on the west coast of the territory. Not sure if Russia has corrected the vulnerabilities of those locations from the last time.
OUTLOOK –
Pretty slow getting info on ground ops. It is evident that Russia is trying to force counter attacks to close off Ukrainian advances. Sources on the Russian side indicate that these attacks have been largely unsuccessful and costly in men and material. This raises the possibility that Ukraine is in a temporary defensive posture pending exhaustion of Russian forces before its next surge.
Both sides appear to be taking a breather on their deeper game - drone and missile strikes. Speculation on how Ukraine will use ATACMS once they get it and if it is only the cluster munitions version or singular warhead model or combination thereof.
Part of Ukraine’s slow down on its Crimea deep game is the reappearance of new S400 sites. They will have to be dealt with as in the past to insure successful penetration into Crimea.
Belarus -
Another stage of combat readiness inspection of the Belarusian Armed Forces has begun. This was reported by the Ministry of Defense of Belarus. The Security Council is responsible for the general management of the inspection.
OBSERVATION - The Belarus army has been undergoing routine training. Training of Russian forces has remained at low levels since most were pulled out to address the Ukraine offensive.
Europe / NATO General –
Another major IED bomb destroyed a house in Stockholm this morning. Swedes are on the edge as an unprecedentedly violent gang war is taking place, with the PM recently announcing that the Army will be called in to support the police. It’s the 132nd bombing this year.
Sweden has for much of the last decade been the leading bastion of liberal immigration policies in Europe, having welcomed hundreds of thousands of migrants and asylum-seekers from the Middle East and Africa.
OBSERVATION - The fruits of ‘diversity’. The same is coming to the US as we are reaching our saturation point for illegals.
***
AFP: Poland and Ukraine reached an agreement on the outstanding issues in transporting Ukrainian grain
OBSERVATION - The grain dispute that flared tensions between Ukraine and Poland (as well as several other EU/NATO countries) looks to be getting worked out.
***
Slovakia’s president asked the newly elected populist Robert Fico to form a government following the country’s parliamentary elections over the weekend.
OBSERVATION - This election moved Slovakia towards Hungary and more into Russia’s sphere of influence.
Iran –
According to a series of emails between Iranian diplomats and analysts, the Iranian government used the Iran Experts Initiative (IEI) and former Biden Iran Envoy Robert Malley to infiltrate influence agent Ariane Tabatabai into sensitive positions in the State and Defense Departments. This influence operation, intended to influence U.S. policy to be favorable to Iran, has infiltrated and influenced U.S. foreign policy and defense officials since at least 2014. Malley himself has been influential on U.S. foreign policy since the Clinton administration. (FO)
OBSERVATION - Willingly selling out to a declared enemy of the US. In today’s soros influenced democrat environment nothing is going to happen to him.
Misc of Note –
This Wednesday, a nationwide *TEST* will be sent across cell phones, wireless devices, radio, and TV.
ET: 2:20pm
CT: 1:20 pm
MT: 12:20 pm
PT: 11:20 am
AK: 10:20 am
Again, I am not expecting any surprises from this test.
The elephant in the room is hyper inflation - and that idiot Biden wants to run on this? It's not just Bidenomics anymore, it's Democratonomics...
ET: 2:20pm
CT: 1:20 pm
MT: 12:20 pm
PT: 11:20 am
AK: 10:20 am
The problem with Biden? If he can mess it up, he will..
We are in uncharted waters economically.
Globalism / Great Reset –
International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a presentation this week that carbon pricing – government charges for emitting carbon – can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and generate government revenue to relieve debt burdens.
OBSERVATION - Carbon tax credits scam has already been shown to be a literal waste of money here in the US and has done the opposite of reducing debt burdens and cleaning up the air. This is just another method to remove fossil fuels off the chart by the WEF et al.
Economy –
Interest rates will likely need to be higher to eliminate inflation from the U.S. economy, says Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman.
Speaking at a business conference in Alberta, Canada, on Oct. 2, the central bank official argued that policymakers would need to pull the trigger on additional rate hikes to tackle price pressures, particularly as the recent spike in energy prices threatens the institution’s gains over the past year. “Inflation continues to be too high, and I expect it will likely be appropriate for the Committee to raise rates further and hold them at a restrictive level for some time to return inflation to our 2 percent goal in a timely way,” Ms. Bowman said.
OBSERVATION - Recent economic news is strongly suggesting that the wheels of the economy are about to fall off. The fed’s myopic fix on inflation is missing the effects of the current high rates on other sectors of the economy.
***
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index plummeted to 36.3 in October 2023, compared to September’s 43.2 and well below market forecasts of 41.6. It was the 26th consecutive month in which the reading stayed in pessimistic territory, hitting its lowest point since August 2011, amid growing concerns about the effects of a prolonged period of elevated interest rates on the US economy. The six-month economic outlook index cratered 9.6 points to 28.7, a record low since the survey began in early 2001; and the personal finances subindex slid 6 points to 46.8, returning to pessimistic territory. Meanwhile, the IBD/TIPP Financial-Related Stress Index jumped 2.4 points to 70.5, the highest level since December 2008, when the country was mired in a recession. At the same time, the gauge of support for federal economic policies plunged 5.1 points to a still-dismal 33.5, a nine-year low.
source: Technometrica Market Intelligence/The Investor’s Business Daily
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/economic-optimism-index
OBSERVATION - these numbers also track with the timeframe that the fed bond rates have spiked. At the fed level, something seems to have cracked on the national economic world during the 4th Q FY 2023.
***
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Nightmare Levels.
The delinquency rate of commercial mortgages on office properties that had been securitized into CMBS spiked to 5.6% by loan balance in September, having more than tripled so far this year, from a delinquency rate of 1.6% in December
OBSERVATION - Lack of recovery from wuhan shutdowns combined with malaise in economic growth have created a parallel mortgage monster with private mortgages. Throw in the recent significant numbers of major retailers closing stores in crime ridden hell holes like San Fran and elsewhere are placing further pressure on the commercial market.
***
U.S. Money Supply is continuing to contract and is down 3.69% and falling. In the past 150 years, the US Money Supply has only contracted five (5) times; and they were Recessions and the Great Depression. It is happening again.
Two U.S. money supply metrics that investors tend to pay close attention to are M1 and M2. The former accounts for the cash and coins in circulation, as well as the demand deposits within an individual’s checking account. Meanwhile, M2 factors in everything in M1 and adds money market accounts, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit (CDs) below $100,000. The main difference is that M2 factors in cash that takes a little extra work to get your hands on.
Over the past 153 years, there have only been five instances where M2 has declined by at least 2% on a year-over-year basis: the 1870s, 1893, 1921, 1931-1933, and 2023. In order, these instances resulted in a depression, panic, depression, Great Depression, and now todays situation.. In the previous four instances, it was an ominous sign for Wall Street.
OBSERVATION - I’m no money guru, but multiple things are hitting at the same time. 10 yr Treasury spikes, the M2 situation and Economic Optimism Index all hitting major spikes/declines on nearly the same time frame and reaching near record levels in a very short period of time. As I said above, It seems like something snapped during the 4th Q and it is just beginning to surface in the economy in general. Most concerning is the correlation of the current M2 to past depressions/recession.
***
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 7.72%, according to Mortgage News Daily. Mortgage rates follow loosely the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which has been climbing this week. Analysts are expecting it to penetrate the 8% threashold soon. Rates have not been this high since the end of 2000.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The head of NATO’s Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, sounded the alarm on Tuesday that NATO has depleted its stockpiles of weapons and ammunition. At the Warsaw Security Forum, Bauer urged Western defense industries to ramp up production at a much higher tempo and produce larger volumes of war materials.
On Monday, the Pentagon warned Congress in a letter that it was running out of money to replace weapons and ammunition sent to Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Like in so many other sectors, a large component of the war in Ukraine is to not only deplete weapons and ammo used by Russia, but by NATO allies as well, weakening the military forces as a whole. This while China continues to grow its military by leaps and bounds.
***
According to Reuters, the US currently has just 17 days of supply left in the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). This is roughly half the historical average of ~33 days dating back to 1990.
Meanwhile, oil prices are still almost 30% above the target price the US set to refill them.
OBSERVATION - biden’s drawdown was a deliberate action designed to weaken the US’ ability to respond to a major global situation.
POLITICAL FRONT –
McCarthy was voted out of his speakership position with 8 republicans, led by Gaetz, joining all democrats. Now the scrum begins for his replacement, currently scheduled deliberations net Tuesday-Wednesday of next week.
IN RELATED - As one of his first acts as the acting speaker, Rep. Patrick McHenry ordered former Speaker Nancy Pelosi to vacate her Capitol hideaway office by Wednesday, according to an email sent to her office viewed by POLITICO.
“Please vacate the space tomorrow, the room will be re-keyed,” wrote a top aide on the Republican-controlled House Administration Committee. The room was being reassigned by the acting speaker “for speaker office use,” the email said.
***
NY Judge Engoron backtracked on claim that he effectively tossed out 80% of the claim against Trump.
***
Historian Victor Davis Hanson sat down with Tucker Carlson to discuss his perspective on the current political climate in the US, asserting that American liberalism is characterized by dishonesty, and warning about what he sees as liberal efforts to introduce a highly intolerant age.
Most specifically, Hanson told Carlson that:
“I think they’ve come to the conclusion that Trump is an existential threat and by association, half the country is to their vision of what they want to transform us into, and so they feel that whatever means necessary are justified.”
“The next 12 months will be the most explosive in history”
OBSERVATION - I’m a fan of VDH - he is one of the clearest presenters of the dangers of modern progressivism there is out there. Key words here are “whatever means necessary are justified” I’ve said it a lot - democrats are more than willing to burn it all down as long as they rule over the ashes. This willingness to resort to violence - seen especially in their urban base voters - cheered on by rich, white liberals is especially worrisome as we enter the 2024 election year.
The rumored loss of Chinese PLA Navy submarine ‘093-417’ , an event I posted on months ago, has resurfaced (no pun intended) in news. According to a UK intelligence report:
“Incident happened at 08.12 local resulting in the death of 55 crew members: 22 officers, 7 officer cadets, 9 petty officers, 17 sailors. Dead include the captain Colonel Xue Yong-Peng.
‘Our understanding is death caused by hypoxia due to a system fault on the submarine. The submarine hit a chain and anchor obstacle used by the Chinese Navy to trap US and allied submarines.”
OBSERVATION - The resurgence of this incident is attributed in part to unconfirmed reports that families of the sailors have been seeking to find out what has happened given that they have not returned now long after they were suppose to. Not surprising China is closed lipped as well. Still listed as RUMINT.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Economic Impact –
Russia plans to spend 10.8tn rubles ($110bn) on defense next year, finance minister Anton Siluanov says. “That’s more than this year, but the money is essential to achieve our main goal: making sure we win,” he says
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 70s with chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Continued limited verified reports on the action. Even missile/drone active is apparently at a low.
Tokmak Axis -.
Ukranian reports of widening the salient westward from Robotyne.
Bakhmut Axis -
Ukraine claiming advances in the towns of Klischiyivka and Andriyivka located south of Bakhmut. Ukraine forces have reportedly breached the Russian line set up along the N-S rail line. This opens up deeper cuts into supply routes into Bakhmut.
Russian Territory –
Ukraine reportedly hit a S-400 SAM in Belgorod region of Russia overnight
OUTLOOK –
I expect continued small gains by Ukraine along both the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts. if the limited reports bear out, both could see a rapid breakout at any time. However, it seems the cycle is that of Russian counter attacks trying to recover gains made by Ukraine. With the current, local Ukrainian artillery advantage, these attacks are reportedly turning into disasters for Russia.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Romania has announced that it will be deploying additional military forces to Kosovo due to rising tensions in the region.
Serbian FM says Belgrade wants deescalation in Kosovo.
The US confirms that the Serbs are withdrawing their troops from the borders of Kosovo.
OBSERVATION - Reinforcements of KFOR appear to have served their purpose in deterring Serbia from escalating matters in Kosovo. For warplanners in Serbia, this also gives them data to gauge NATO responses and times.
Middle East / N. Africa General -
Protests erupted in Egypt after President Sissi announced his intention to run for a 3rd term in office. Sissi and the military took power after clamping down on the government of the Muslim Brotherhood, which was formed after the Arab Spring.
OBSERVATION - Will need to see if these protests gain any traction. Egypt has been pretty stable since Sissi took power.
Misc of Note –
Today, a nationwide *TEST* will be sent across cell phones, wireless devices, radio, and TV.
ET: 2:20pm
CT: 1:20 pm
MT: 12:20 pm
PT: 11:20 am
AK: 10:20 am
Again, I am not expecting any surprises from this test.
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