Fall is a beautiful time here in the Redoubt, the yellows, oranges and red against the green of pine forests is fabulous . It is also a time of holding our breath that the night time lows don’t exceed out plastic greenhouse ability to protect our ripening tomato and other crops for a least another week or so. Such is the hazard of a high, mountain valley for crops.
Economy –
Bank of America’s CEO Brian Moynihan believes that the Fed has ‘won’ the fight against inflation and we are going to have a ‘soft’ landing. However, his views ignore the resurgence of inflation over the past two months and the ripple of sharply increasing fuel prices through the economy that will drive inflation even higher. IMHO this is a big dose of hopium.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Various black activists are calling Tuesday’s looting spree (as well as probably also referring to the coordinated looting throughout Blue metro cities) a form of ‘reparations’. This justification for continued crime - combined with a lack of law enforcement / criminal prosecution - will only guarantee its continued growth.
IN RELATED - Pennsylvania Liquor Control Board Press Secretary Shawn Kelly said all state-owned Fine Wine & Good Spirits stores in Philadelphia will be closed until it is safe to reopen after 18 of the state-owned liquor stores were looted overnight Tuesday.
OBSERVATION - From posted videos of the looting, the black community won’t be hurting for a while given all the liquor they stole on Tuesday.
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OVERALL OBSERVATION - The pressure gauge caused by illegals is in the red zone - I know I’m repeating myself here. Some 7 million plus illegals that have come in during biden’s reign are the powder keg that could explode next year. We’ve seen what uncontrolled immigration has done to portions of europe and you darn well better believe the same is headed our way. 2024 would be a perfect time for such an explosion. Combined with the restitution seeking sectors of society the potential for violence exceeding 2020 are at an all time high IMHO. All is needed is a spark. Will the illegals going the BLM/Antifas? Will it become illegals vs restitution blacks in a fight over crumbs falling off the democrat master’s table?
So far the majority of the illegals are being moved into established blue states/cities (with the exception of Texas). It is harder to place them into other red states due to the clear lack of facilities to house them, combined with the fact that the feds would get strong push back. That may soon shift with the feds trying to force crushing numbers on red states to overwhelm their resources as well as resistance to the govt.
I really can’t see just what the details will be and how things will play out, but I’m sure that this illegal invasion will be a key component of the likely domestic turmoil and violence being forecast by some in 2024.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Pvt. Travis King has been turned over to US custody after a short stay in NK.
NK determined that as a low-ranking serviceman he had no real value in terms of either leverage or information. They probably decided that King, 23, was more trouble to keep than to simply release him.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Continued warnings concerning wuhan outbreak this fall / winter and the push to get more people jabbed are falling more and more on deaf ears. However, compliance using masks, etc. that have been demonstrated to be ineffective are still worming their way into compliant areas of society such has health care and schools.
POLITICAL FRONT –
There are rumors that Fox hosted a republican candidate debate last night and no one gave a rats rear end.
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The biden criminal family is under increasing pressure as more and more evidence of criminal pay to play schemes keep coming out of the wood work. And the MSM is doing very little to try to paper over the damage.
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Trump spoke to strikers overnight, finding substantial and vocal supporters among the leftist leaning union.
Illegal Immigration –
A red NYC borough has successfully fought back against housing illegals in a school that was to be rehabbed and put back as a school. This was a significant pushback to Mayor Adam’s attempt to apply the NY ‘right to shelter’ law - a law specifically for citizens - onto all illegals and to force the problem into other sectors of the city. The judge has ordered NY to remove the illegals that were placed in the school ASAP.
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Texas has repaired the section of concertina wire that was cut for a second time by border patrol agents this week. As with military barriers, only those sections that have forces to respond to breaches will remain intact. TX needs to station its Rangers on these sections and arrest any border patrol personnel attempting to cut the wire again.
China –
Shares in crisis-hit Chinese property giant Evergrande have been suspended in Hong Kong amid reports its chairman has been placed under police surveillance.
It follows reports earlier this week that other current and former executives had also been detained.
Thursday’s market statement did not give a reason for the trading halt.
But it marks another low for the heavily indebted property giant which defaulted in 2021, triggering China’s current real estate market crisis.
OBSERVATION - The threat of a full blown Evergrande collapse weighs heavy on the Chinese economy. If Evergrande defaults, banks and other lenders may be forced to lend less. This squeezes capitol needed or business growth / expansion and maintains the current doldrums of the Chinese economic engine.
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China’s Defense Ministry announced on Thursday that China and Saudi Arabia will hold joint naval drills next month in China. The exercise, dubbed “Blue Sword 2023,” will occur in Guangdong province and focus on maritime counterterrorism operations.
OBSERVATION - China’s increasing its influence on the middle east and Saudi Arabia in particular to gain one thing - oil security.
North/South Korea –
NK has incorporated nuclear weapons in its constitution. Also deported the US Army private who defected a few months ago.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
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Logistics –
Open source satellite imagery shows that Russian is working hard to improve the rail network in southern Ukraine in an attempt to support alternative ways of getting supplies to forces via the ‘land bridge’, probably in anticipation of more attacks that close off the Kerch Bridge or even destroy it.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Wagner force elements are struggling to reestablish their effectiveness under new chains of command. Having returned to the fight, they have not been the force to be reckoned with as before.
Economic Impact –
Shortages of domestic gasoline and diesel has caused Russia to cease export and retain those stocks for domestic as well as war support.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures decreasing from the 70’s to the 60’s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Admiral Sokolov keeps showing up in videos suggesting he is still alive. However, these videos contain no material as to the dates they were taken, so there is still a degree of skepticism over claims of his being alive.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine got their game back up overnight shooting down 34 of 44 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight. NOTE - Increasing reliance on the Shahed drones vs their other missile supplies.
Increasing fog of war and OPSEC blotting out a clear picture of what is happening on the front lines. Even most of the Russian milblogger sphere has gone silent. That which is seeping out on the periphery still indicates that Russian is still trying to reinforce its southern Ukraine positions and that the Ukraine breakthrough south of Robotyne is expanding and Russians are taking a pounding and losing ground.
Tokmak Axis -.
Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine is hitting the region south of Robotyne with a battalion sized (4 armored companies) force backed up by major artillery support.
Bakhmut Axis -
Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has penetrated the most recent Russian line of defense along the N-S railroad south of Bakhmut.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Shahed drone hits reported in Kirovohrad region overnight
OUTLOOK –
The Ukraine deep war appears to be at a strategic pause as they reassess successes and identify targets for the next round.
Progress on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts, though clouded, are following established trends by the Ukraine army and are not outlandish. Last week claims that the dragons teeth and armor ditch portions of the Russian defensive line were breached and now is evident that Ukraine armor is helping to press the attack. In Bakhmut, Russian last week were forced to retreat and reestablish a defensive line along the rail line. Ukraine apparently is pressing the attack before they can be prepared. Typical.
Turbulence that has developed between Ukraine and European allies has been very rough and threatening Ukraine supply chains. Issues are being worked through but the extent of damage to relations has still occurred. Poland is not going to cut off its nose to spite its face - it realizes that they are Russia’s next target should Ukraine fall and it is better for them to have Ukraine fight than them.
As with everything during this war, conditions can change very rapidly.
Belarus -
Observers note that the camp set up months ago for Wagner forces has now been mostly taken down.
Saudi Arabia –
See China above.
Venezuela -
US Chevron is resuming petroleum operations in conjunction with the Venezuelan govt.
Central / South America General-
Costa Rica has declared an emergency over the surge of illegals coming through the country from Panama. Evidence is that numbers coming through the Darin Gap have reached astronomical levels and NGOs are spending large amounts of money to facilitate that movement.
took the day off yesterday to stock up on supplies at a case sale, then drive thru the wonderful autumn forests of the Redoubt to a hot springs and soaked for a while.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Like father, like daughter - John Kerry’s daughter has urged government’s to urgently ramp up the WEF’s depopulation propaganda so that the public are mentally prepared for the culling of billions of humans.
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The World Economic Forum (WEF) is pushing for the criminalization of “climate inaction,” according to a recent article.
“Is climate inaction a human rights violation?” the headline read.”
On Wednesday, a lawsuit went to the European Court of Human Rights, brought forth by six young individuals against 32 European countries. The six individuals are alleging that the countries’ have failed to address the “climate crisis” caused by human activities.
“It’s being described as “unprecedented” in terms of potential impact,” the WEF stated.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/09/climate-progress-human-rights-violation/
OBSERVATION - In addition to more draconian measures, WEF pushing the limit in other venues such as this. They rely on subservient elements to do their dirty work as they cheer (and guide) from the sidelines.
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Billionaire climate activist Bill Gates wants farmers to stop using fertilizer, a plan that has already been tried, with catastrophic consequences for food supplies and costs.
Gates denounced fertilizer and livestock as two of the biggest contributors to the global climate change menace, during a recent episode of his Unconfuse Me podcast. Gates commented that “of all the climate areas, the one that people are probably least aware of is all the fertilizer and cows, and that’s a challenge.”
Two years ago, the Sri Lankan government made the decision to ban chemical fertilizers, a decision which ultimately led to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa being forced to flee the country amid an economic crisis - which was, in part, catalyzed by dramatically reduced crop yields.
However, according to a report from the World Food Program, as a result of the sudden shift to total organic farming, “the total cultivated extent declined by 26 percent, resulting in a 52 percent yield loss after the policy change.”
“Suddenly,” Stossel noted, “the same farms produced much less food. Food prices rose by 80 percent.” What resulted thereafter were riots and protests, culminating in the storming of the presidential mansion and President Rajapaksa’s subsequent flight and resignation.
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted Gates efforts against agriculture before. True to WEF tactics, a compliant govt was found to essentially ‘beta test’ the plan. The results are predictable. To the WEF, Sri Lanka is expendable, but the lessons learned will be used to apply to the rest of the globe. Already this year Netherlands is seeking to close up nearly the entirety of its agriculture system, Ireland culling hundreds of thousand of cows, even Canada. etc. Famine is a prime, though unstated goal in the WEFs global depopulation agenda - coming soon as they can secure control in subservient countries.
Economy –
The length and depth of govt response to the impending shutdown will have variable impacts on different sectors of the economy, ranging from air travel, to parks, to transportation, etc. It appears that democrats have no desire for negotiation - and the conservative republicans the same. Both are needed to pass any bills.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Milley is officially out at the Chair of the Joint Chiefs, in comes General Affirmative action.
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The USS Ronald Reagan left port this morning after almost two weeks of failures to launch.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Govt shutdown looks to be unavoidable at this stage. Reports are that the regime is looking to impose the shutdown in ways that hurt the country the most - taking a page out of 0bama’s book.
CNN shock poll places the plurality of the blame on the democrats for any shutdown.
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Biden’s impeachment proceedings is on and the circus in high gear.
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RFK Jr is looking to go independent - political pundits saying he will pull votes from both Rs and Ds. IMHO, biden will be hurt the worst as Kennedy reflects the more moderate base of democrats, which will force biden to the center - at the risk of the ruling leftist progressive controllers of the party.
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DiFi kicked the bucket and now comes the great discussion of her replacement. As i noted in an earlier post, harris ‘ name has popped up on the list. Names that have been discussed to finish Feinstein’s term include Holly Mitchell, a Los Angeles county supervisor; Angela Glover Blackwell, a civil rights lawyer in Oakland and the founder of PolicyLink, a research and advocacy nonprofit group; and Shirley Weber, the California secretary of state, according to the Times.
TV’s Oprah Winfrey also has been mentioned, according to The Associated Press.
He has said he would not select any of the declared candidates — Reps. Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam Schiff — for the seat.
Illegal Immigration –
Border patrol continues to sever the concertina fence constructed by TX and lets illegals come in.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree setting out the routine autumn conscription campaign, calling up 130,000 citizens for statutory military service, a document posted on the government website showed on Friday.
All men in Russia are required to do a year-long military service between the ages of 18 and 27, or equivalent training while in higher education.
NOTE - This is a routine call up and unlikely to have any effect on the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures decreasing from the 70’s to the 60’s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 30 of 40 Russian Shahed drones overnight. Drones targeted areas of central Ukraine.
Fierce fighting continues along the Tokmok axis, but fog of war / OPSEC by both sides hiding the extent and progress. That which does leak out shows Ukraine continuing to successfully clear our Russian trenches and widening the breach. Russia has committed its remaining effective VDV units to the Tokmok fight.
OUTLOOK –
Russia has laterally transferred its few combat effective VDV forces into the Tokmok region. This seems to have slowed Ukraine’s pace a bit, but it still has the major tactical advantage.
Europe / NATO General –
Sweden’s largest opposition party, the Social Democrats, want the Swedish Army to be deployed against gangs formed from migrants. Yesterday , 2 men were shot to death & a 25-y-old woman was killed in a bombing of her apartment building.
OBSERVATION - Sweden has been blessed by ‘diversity’, as these gangs are based in the massive numbers of ‘migrants’ living in the country and in some locations - taking over areas. Coming soon (or is it already here) to the US.
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A Russian drone crashed near Galati, 21 km from the Ukrainian border into Romanian land at 2.5 km from a town with a population of 270,000. NATO air police are currently on high alert and flying fighter jets at low altitude.
OBSERVATION - Russia has become increasingly sloppy in its attacks against Ukrainian shipping facilities, and specifically those grain related, that border with Romania. Romania will eventually be forced to down these wayward drones before they reach the country - engaging them over Ukraine. Danger of escalation is high.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
US - “We are monitoring a large Serbian deployment along the border of Kosovo,” including “unprecedented forward deployment of artillery, tanks, and service members.” “We are calling on Serbia to withdraw those forces.”
In response, NATO considering increase in deployment to northern Kosovo.
OBSERVATION - Most recent incident involved Serbs killling Kosovan police and then holing up in a monastery with a load of military grade weapons this week. The Serbs have been beating a war drum for the past year and more. If they take any action it will be based on their perception that NATO is too tied up with the Ukraine war to have any effective response.
Israel –
Treaty talks with Saudi Arabia continue to move forward in spite of sticking points concerning the Palestinians.
Saudi Arabia –
See Israel above
Central / South America General-
The Biden administration has forged confidential pacts with Ecuador, opening the door for the deployment of U.S. military forces, both on land and on the sea for the South American nation.
The arrangement covers “status of forces and maritime law enforcement agreements.” The maritime component grants permission for U.S. military vessels to operate in the waters off the northwestern coast of South America, a region frequently exploited by Colombian drug cartels for cocaine trafficking, a state spokesperson confirmed to the Washington Examiner on Friday.
OBSERVATION - The key focus is the attack on cocaine trafficking. Drug cartels are undermining the stability of the Ecuador govt and they need the help. This also helps to restore US military presence in S America, something that has been in decline in recent years.
Black Swans
NOAA is announcing that the El Nino is officially in effect and that it has reached ‘super’ levels. Combined with a strong forecast “polar vortex” no one knows as to what this winter will bring.