October is here, along with all the numerous discussions concerning potential “October Surprises”.
Reminder, Oct 4th is the national Emergency Test message. Many Reynolds aluminum stockholders predicting dire effects from this alert.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The biden regime is still pushing for some sort of internet censorship in spite of being slammed by the USSC over previous efforts to flag articles and silence critics on big tech platforms. In an interview with ProPublica on Sunday, biden expressed that there are essentially no gate keepers to what is posted on the internet and that ‘misinformation’ abounds.
OBSERVATION - biden reflects the globalist consensus that all speech on all platforms has to be censored in such a manner that only the approved narrative is expressed and endorsed. Same old, same old we’ve seen used in the Soviet Union, China and the myriads of tyrannical dictatorships across the globe.
IN RELATED - Canada is in the process of forcing all podcasts originating in country to register with the state. The Online Streaming Act, formerly Bill C-11, goes into effect on Nov. 28, meaning any online streaming service that operates in Canada and generates revenue of more than $10 million in a given year will have to register with CRTC.
Having a registry of podcasts would make it easier to censor those not holding to the official narrative.
Economy –
Trucking employment has declined significantly. Historically, when we see trucking employment declining, that has been an indicator of recession, reflecting reduced production and demand for goods.
End of FY 2023 reports will start dribbling out soon and the question is not if they will be bad, the question is just how bad. They could provide indicators of just what we could be looking at for a recession in 2024.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Continued rumblings under the radar from radical Antifa elements trying to come up with scenarios that could be exploited to generate a 2020ish wave of violence across the nation.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
The scientists who wrote the Correlation Research in the Public Interest report, published on Sept. 17, 2023, and hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed, quantified the vaccine-dose fatality rate (vDFR) for all ages — which is the ratio of inferred vaccine-induced deaths to vaccine doses delivered in a given population, the Epoch Times reported.
The researchers calculated a mean all-ages fatal toxicity by injection of vDFR of one death per 800 injections across all ages and countries. According to the Times, this equates to 17 million COVID-19 vaccine-related deaths all around the world from 13.25 billion injections as of Sept. 2, 2023.
It was also discovered that the overall risk of death induced by COVID-19 vaccines is 1,000 times greater than it was previously reported in data from clinical trials, adverse event monitoring and cause-of-death statistics obtained from death certificates, the news source added.
OBSERVATION - Take a deep breath as these numbers are astronomical and pending confirmation. We already know that the ‘excess death’ rate among the jabbed is substantial, combined with the definite heart damage/deaths. If these numbers hold out -then the jab will be demonstrable as a genocidal agent.
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A new scientific study by Nakahara et al. tested COVID-vaccinated people to see if they have “silent” changes in heart muscle function that standard radiology tests could detect.
Scientists measured myocardial 18Fluorine-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) uptake. F-FDG has molecular similarity to glucose. However, 18F-FDG does not metabolize like glucose. Therefore, PET scans could detect it, and its presence shows the heart muscle’s abnormally high demand for glucose, indicative of abnormal cardiac function. More about it here.
Conclusions: Focal myocardial 18F-FDG uptake seen on oncologic PET/CT indicates a significantly increased risk for multiple myocardial abnormalities.
https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.230743
OBSERVATION - The mountain of evidence against the mRNA jabs continues to grow and the thing is Pfizer/Moderna and the govt knew these things and went ahead anyway.
IN RELATED - Using official government data for deaths in England and Wales between 2010 and 2022, former BlackRock portfolio manager Ed Dowd and his partners at Phinance Technologies found that excess death rates from cardiovascular diseases were up 13% in 2020, 30% in 2021, and 44% in 2022, which “point to a worrying picture of an even greater acceleration in coming years of deaths & disabilities.”
https://phinancetechnologies.com/HumanityProjects/Resources/Project Brief - UK Cardiovascular 15-44_091723.pdf
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Katalin Kariko of Hungary and Drew Weissman of the United States won the Nobel Medicine Prize on Monday for work on messenger RNA (mRNA) technology that paved the way for Covid-19 vaccines.
OBSERVATION - No mention about the deadly side effects of the so called ‘vaccines’ have had on the general population. The papering over of the jabs must be maintained.
POLITICAL FRONT –
California Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed EMILY’s List President Laphonza Butler to fill the seat of the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, elevating the head of a fundraising juggernaut that works to elect Democratic women who support abortion rights, according to a person familiar with the decision.” Politico reported. Butler is registered to vote in Maryland, not kalifornia.
OBSERVATION - She is a rabid pro-abort and a massive money machine for democrats. Some reckon newscum is placing her there to preload her to raise a snot load of money for his undeclared presidential run.
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McCarthy’s last-minute deal with House Democrats to get a clean CR passed in the House has exposed deep features in the republican majority in the House as well as caused Senate RINOS to rear their heads. The flare up of infighting may cost McCarthy his speakership and throw the House into a prolonged fight over his replacement. All this works to the democrats advantage in that it will cause the 45 day extension to descend on the country and they’ll get their ‘republican caused’ shut down.
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The Federal Communications Commission’s attempt to reinstate the internet policy known as net neutrality faces a major stumbling block in the form of Supreme Court scrutiny, according to some of its critics.
Under Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel, the FCC released a new proposal on Thursday that would recategorize internet service providers under Title II of the Communications Act. This change would place them under additional regulations to ensure the ISPs do not discriminate or throttle content from various websites. Such a move would be a return to 0bama-era net neutrality rules.
OBSERVATION - Discussion focuses around the legality of such a move as similar govt regulation court cases have gone against the govt as exceeding their legal authority.
Illegal Immigration –
Things have gotten worse at the border. Initial data for September shows that over 260,000 illegal aliens were encountered. This is the highest number in a single month ever recorded. And it gets worse.
Border Patrol agents assigned to the nine southwest border sectors apprehended more than two million migrants for the second consecutive year. September’s apprehension of approximately 218,000 migrants pushed the Fiscal Year 23 report to just over two million migrants, according to unofficial Border Patrol reports reviewed by Breitbart Texas.
OBSERVATION - This does not include the ‘got aways’ that number in the tens (hundreds?) of thousands. This trend has total apprehended illegals to exceed 7 million by the end of biden’s term in Jan 6, 2025.
IIRC, at the start of the Trump presidential term, the estimated number of illegals in the county was placed at about 12 million. biden will have nearly doubled that number in just 4 years.
China –
An informal Bloomberg News survey of 15 analysts and money managers based in Hong Kong and mainland China indicate that worsening malaise in China’s real estate industry threatens FY 2024 growth. Six of them listed housing woes as the biggest risk for equities for the final quarter of 2023, followed by geopolitical tensions.
OBSERVATION - Continued concern over this sector of the Chinese economy and there is currently not off ramp.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
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Three foreign cargo vessels left the ports of Odesa and five more are entering today, according to Marine Traffic. It hasn’t been this busy in months. Russian attempts at a naval blockade of Ukraine clearly not working.
Economic Impact –
Russia is getting around oil embargoes by selling to China and India and receiving payment in yuan.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 70s with chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
RUMINT –
There are no immediate plans to deploy military instructors to Ukraine, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Sunday, rowing back from comments by his defense minister who had suggested troops could carry out training in the country.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Relatively quiet on the Russian drone/missile front, only a few drones reported but an increased number of repurposed S300’s shot at Kharkiv.
More unconfirmed reports that Ukraine continues to exploit tactical advantages in Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts.
OUTLOOK –
Fog of war continues along side OPSEC. A lot of unconfirmed reports of Russians scraping up what VDV forces they can to try to blunt the Tokmok push. Ukraine allegedly going to the ‘rope a dope’ - digging in and smashing the Russian counter attacks.
Europe / NATO General –
Bulgaria introduces ban on entry of cars with Russian license plates. The restrictions will apply to both cars and trucks. Croatia and France have also joined the ban on cars with Russian license plates. Additionally, Czechia has become the second country after Germany to record a precedent of confiscation of cars with Russian license plates.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
In addition to the 1st Infantry Battalion of the Princess of Wales’s Royal Regiment which has already begun to arrive in Kosovo from their Base in Cyprus; the U.K. Secretary of Defense has announced that 500-1,000 Troops from the British Army will also arrive in Kosovo over the next week in order to Reinforce the NATO Peacekeeping Force in the Country, which already includes over 400 British Soldiers.
NATO confirms strengthening of KFOR with 200 soldiers to join a 400-strong UK contingent already exercising in Kosovo. Says it’s a “prudent step” in order “to fulfill its UN mandate: to maintain a safe and secure environment and freedom of movement for all people in Kosovo”
RUMINT - Kosovo Police Director, General Gazmend Hoxha has announced that Intelligence has been received which shows that the Serbian Armed Forces are possibly preparing to annex a number of areas in Northern Kosovo near the border and that the attack last week in the Village of Banjska is part of the initial staging for this operation.
He further stated that the operation in Banjska had a number of short and long-term goals, one of which being the establishment of an underground network which would be used to bring weapons and paramilitary soldiers into Northern Kosovo; the Kosovo Security Force has already discovered multiple stockpiles of untouched weapons near the village since the attack.
OBSERVATION -
Bigger NATO ‘tripwire’ against rumors of upwards of 4 Serb brigades forming near the border. Are the serbs gambling that NATO is too tied up in regards to Ukraine to effectively respond?
Iran –
Iran can produce enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb in less than two weeks, the United States warned as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday held a security assessment with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant that focused on threats from the Islamic Republic.
“It is assessed that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapons program at this time,” US Defense Department stated in a report it published on Friday called the “Strategy for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction” in 2023.
OBSERVATION - The commonsense consensus is that Iran has the capability to enrich uranium to the 90% threshold in to enough quantities necessary to create the heart of a nuclear bomb in a short period of time. That is no surprise. Israel’s intelligence collectors would know of such an achievement as soon as it happens - an event that Israel has said would trigger war.
IMHO, the assumption that Iran “is not pursuing a nuclear weapons program” is bogus. A weapons program covers a wide degree of efforts, from making a bomb, creating a warhead, and creating weapons delivery systems. Those last ones continue unabated. Explosive design is largely now a days a computer operation with component testing (minus nuclear material). Activities that can be conducted fairly covertly.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Reports are that nearly all of the ethnic Armenians have left or in the process of leaving the disputed N-K territory.
Black Swans
“Trigger event” - that amorphous happening that is the last straw on the camel’s back that causes things to collapse and go sideways. In my assessment, so much of America resembles a line of dominos that just about any severe shock could ripple out and take vast amounts of our country down - economically, socially, militarily, governmentally, etc.
Wuhan demonstrated that the global powers that be will pounce on any similar event and that if you’ve followed here, are setting themselves up to exploit any global episode even more effectively than before.
In my daily readings of the tea leaves, I can’t discern one potential trigger as standing out more than the others. I do strongly suspect that events surrounding the 2024 presidential elections may well serve the cause for the left, but at high risk. Right now potential candidates include -
* Hard landing recession / economic crash
* Political assassination(s)
* Political related violence and protests
* Uprising of the millions of illegals / rise of cartel crime
* China / Taiwan
* Russia / NATO direct conflict
* Major west coast natural disaster (San Andreas or the Cascadia zone)
* Schism between red and blue states (fed gov).
My preps are continuing to be developed along a general collapse of the US scenario - things are aligning up to no other result.
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Economy –
10-Year Note Yield hits 4.70% for the first time since October 2007, now up 430 basis points since the March 2020 low.
This comes with massive issuances of US Treasury bonds to cover deficit spending which are flooding bond markets and sending yields higher.
JPMorgan’s Lebovitz: “If rates continue to rise the way they’ve been rising, there will be a financial accident. Something will break and that will get the Fed moving in the other direction.”
OBSERVATION - These rates have spiked strongly upward over the past few days causing much concern in the markets. Some wonder if we see 8% mortgages this month? Others see that things are swinging grossly out of balance.
Gold / Silver prices also dropped sharply in response to the data.
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The US national debt is growing faster than the economy, per CNBC. Although the debt-to-GDP ratio has receded slightly, the total federal debt still amounts to 120% of GDP, according to the Office of Management and Budget.
OBSERVATION - Some talking heads are poo-pooing these numbers but that doesn’t deny the fact that the US is getting behind on its debt or that the interest on the national debt is exceeding that spent on the military. Throw in an extended recessionary period and things only compound.
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The UAW’s simultaneous yet limited strike against all Detroit’s Big Three automakers continues with no end in sight. Ford executives warned Friday in a media briefing that a prolonged work stoppage at its assembly plants would not only hurt the company, but could lead to as many as 500,000 workers at suppliers being laid off.
OBSERVATION - UAW perhaps sees that its all or nothing demands are not going to gain a lot of traction, nor will an industry destroying full fronted strike. The current tactic may be close to maintaining pressure for concessions without killing the goose that laid the golden eggs. The effects are now beginning to spill outward with the potential layoffs of workers for parts suppliers. That could trigger other layoffs and economic impacts to the communities they reside in.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The police chief who led an August raid on a small weekly newspaper in central Kansas resigned Monday, just days after he was suspended from his post and following the release of body camera video of the raid showing an officer searching the desk of a reporter investigating the chief’s past.
Marion Police Chief Gideon Cody’s resignation was confirmed to The Associated Press both by Mayor Dave Mayfield and City Council member Ruth Herbel, following an announcement by Mayfield at Monday’s council meeting. Mayfield had suspended Cody on Thursday for reasons that have not been made public. In a text message Monday night to the AP, he said he couldn’t answer questions about the chief’s resignation “as it is a personnel matter.”
Cody stepped down weeks after a local prosecutor said that there wasn’t sufficient evidence to justify the search of the Marion County Record or searches at the same time of the publisher’s home and Herbel’s home.
OBSERVATION - This is a continuation of the search and seizure in a little 1,700 person town. That this would happen shows that police corruption can actually be deeper in small towns versus big cities. The ‘Boss Hogg” effect. Citizens must be vigilant to keep thugs like this out of power. Cody is facing one civil rights trial with others pending.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Pentagon Comptroller Michael McCord told House and Senate leaders that the Department of Defense is running out of funds to replenish U.S. military stocks that have been sent to Ukraine, and only $1.6 billion of the appropriated $25 billion for Ukraine is left.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Donald Trump appeared for his trial in New York City on the civil fraud charges that were brought against him by Democratic Party activist Letitia James. The judge essentially threw out 80% of the case because the statute of limitations was exceeded. Much of the remaining lawsuit surrounds the absurd valuation of Trumps property in Florida.
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The republican civil war in the house has gone hot with Gaetz making good on his threats and filed a motion to vacate the chair against Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
OBSERVATION - Pundits already suggesting that this move will fail and that democrats will pull his fat out of the fire only to use it as a tool to push for a congressional swing back to the democrats in 2024. Democrats know full well to let their opponents destroy themselves on their own and not get involved.
Cyber attacks/warfare –
Johnson Controls International (JCI) this week reported in a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that it had suffered a cyberattack that caused disruptions to its internal IT infrastructure.
Gameel Ali, a researcher at Nextron Systems, shared a tweet including a ransom note from cybergang Dark Angels in its VMware ESXi encryptor, stating: “HELLO dear Management of Johnson Controls International! If you are reading this message, it means that: your network infrastructure has been compromised, critical data was leaked, files are encrypted, backups are deleted.” The note went on to say, “The best and only thing you can do is to contact us to settle the matter before any losses occurs.”
The gang has allegedly stolen over 27TB of data and encrypted the company’s VMware ESXi machines in a ransomware attack.
Johnson Controls serves as a government contractor, providing building automation services to facilities, such as HVAC, fire, and security equipment. Due to the nature of those services, officials at DHS are raising concerns about compromised information such as DHS floor plans. According to media reports, officials detailed in an internal memo that Johnson Controls holds “classified/sensitive contracts for DHS that depict the physical security of many DHS facilities.”
OBSERVATION - Damage assessment ongoing.
Illegal Immigration –
Significant impacts across major, blue citys as they are running out of places to house these illegals and they are running out of time as winter approaches.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
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NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia may be planning to test a new nuclear powered missile in the Artic, according to the New York Times. The 9M730 Burevestnik (NATO designation SSC-X-9 Skyfall) is believed to be a nuclear-capable AND nuclear-powered missile that Russia has been unsuccessfully testing over the past years. All of the previous test failed, as the mini-nuclear engine failed to engage. It theoretically, could clear 23,000 km according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative.
RUMINT-
RUMINT. Russian forces have suffered extremely heavy losses during failed counterattacks at Adriivka, Klishchiivka and Bakhmut. Russian Milbloggers suggest Russian Western Dist. Commander, LTGEN Andrei Ivanovich Sychevoi, may have been relieved for cause.
Kerch Bridge update –
Satellite photos show Russia working to replace the final section of the bridge damaged in the latest attack. This raised the potential that the bridge may be fully reopened soon.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 70s with chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 29 of 31 Shahed drones and Iskander-K missile, attacks focused on Odesa and Kryvyi Rih areas.
Virtually little to no solid information on the progress of the war on the ground. That which is rising to the top indicates that Russian forces are conducting numerous counter attacks to push Ukrainian forces back in the Tokmok sector as well as around Bakhmut.
Evidence growing that Russia has replaced at least 2 of the S400 batteries in Crimea with new systems. These systems theoretically provide coverage of all Crimea, but are located on the west coast of the territory. Not sure if Russia has corrected the vulnerabilities of those locations from the last time.
OUTLOOK –
Pretty slow getting info on ground ops. It is evident that Russia is trying to force counter attacks to close off Ukrainian advances. Sources on the Russian side indicate that these attacks have been largely unsuccessful and costly in men and material. This raises the possibility that Ukraine is in a temporary defensive posture pending exhaustion of Russian forces before its next surge.
Both sides appear to be taking a breather on their deeper game - drone and missile strikes. Speculation on how Ukraine will use ATACMS once they get it and if it is only the cluster munitions version or singular warhead model or combination thereof.
Part of Ukraine’s slow down on its Crimea deep game is the reappearance of new S400 sites. They will have to be dealt with as in the past to insure successful penetration into Crimea.
Belarus -
Another stage of combat readiness inspection of the Belarusian Armed Forces has begun. This was reported by the Ministry of Defense of Belarus. The Security Council is responsible for the general management of the inspection.
OBSERVATION - The Belarus army has been undergoing routine training. Training of Russian forces has remained at low levels since most were pulled out to address the Ukraine offensive.
Europe / NATO General –
Another major IED bomb destroyed a house in Stockholm this morning. Swedes are on the edge as an unprecedentedly violent gang war is taking place, with the PM recently announcing that the Army will be called in to support the police. It’s the 132nd bombing this year.
Sweden has for much of the last decade been the leading bastion of liberal immigration policies in Europe, having welcomed hundreds of thousands of migrants and asylum-seekers from the Middle East and Africa.
OBSERVATION - The fruits of ‘diversity’. The same is coming to the US as we are reaching our saturation point for illegals.
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AFP: Poland and Ukraine reached an agreement on the outstanding issues in transporting Ukrainian grain
OBSERVATION - The grain dispute that flared tensions between Ukraine and Poland (as well as several other EU/NATO countries) looks to be getting worked out.
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Slovakia’s president asked the newly elected populist Robert Fico to form a government following the country’s parliamentary elections over the weekend.
OBSERVATION - This election moved Slovakia towards Hungary and more into Russia’s sphere of influence.
Iran –
According to a series of emails between Iranian diplomats and analysts, the Iranian government used the Iran Experts Initiative (IEI) and former Biden Iran Envoy Robert Malley to infiltrate influence agent Ariane Tabatabai into sensitive positions in the State and Defense Departments. This influence operation, intended to influence U.S. policy to be favorable to Iran, has infiltrated and influenced U.S. foreign policy and defense officials since at least 2014. Malley himself has been influential on U.S. foreign policy since the Clinton administration. (FO)
OBSERVATION - Willingly selling out to a declared enemy of the US. In today’s soros influenced democrat environment nothing is going to happen to him.
Misc of Note –
This Wednesday, a nationwide *TEST* will be sent across cell phones, wireless devices, radio, and TV.
ET: 2:20pm
CT: 1:20 pm
MT: 12:20 pm
PT: 11:20 am
AK: 10:20 am
Again, I am not expecting any surprises from this test.