CW2 / Domestic violence -
Mass BLM-inspired looting broke out in downtown Philadelphia after a judge dismissed charges against a police officer who shot dead a Latino man in a car who was armed with a knife. The direct action was organized by the Party of Socialism & Liberation.
OBSERVATION - This riot/looting was going to happen no matter what the verdict was. Philly police did manage to arrest several dozen looters, but the damage is immense. Some are saying that Philadelphia shows how bad it’s gonna get next year. The massive, organized looting of the past year has definitely taken root in the entitlement class, but this is about the first time in recent that an event of this size was pre-organized.
IN RELATED, Target closing 9 stores in these dark blue metro hell holes due to massive theft and crime.
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New reports that citizens in Chicago are getting tense over growing crime and violence associated with illegal migrant holding facilities. Many note that the situation is beginning to boil and could explode into violence against citizens as well as between ethnic groups in these shelters. Major note is the reports of illegals getting drunk/drugged up and harassing passerby as well as stoking tensions within the facility.
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted the potential for violence spring from these facilities as military aged males with too much time on their hands and coming from cultures that have condoned violence to get what they want will eventually explode. In cities like Chicago, NYC, etc - the police are so understaffed that they can no longer keep a lid on the crimes committed by the local establishment class (see Philly above), let alone by concentrated numbers of illegals.
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Three illegals kidnapped a SoCal teen and held him for $500K ransom. Law enforcement was able to quickly track them down and rescue the teen unharmed.
OBSERVATION - Kidnappings like this are common in central America, particularly Mexico and Venezuela. With the current chaos at the border, I fully expect that incidents like this will increase and become more common.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Trump reportedly to meet with UAW strikers today.
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NY Judge claims Trump vastly overstated his assets and ordered his business dealings in NY to be eliminated. On the top of the judge’s list is the grossly understated value of Trumps Mar-a-Lago worth approximately $20 million. This could bring some interesting Trump lawsuits for over paying property taxes for the land in the most prized part of Florida with substantially smaller surrounding properties currently assessed at more than $20 million.
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Senate announced a “bipartisan” measure to avert a govt shut down. Reportedly there are enough republicans in the house to back the bill and get it passed. Not a done deal, but time is running out. The Senate’s CR was expected to fund the government at “present levels” with roughly $4.5 billion worth of Ukraine aid and $6 billion for disaster relief funding tucked into it. The bill also includes about $1.65 billion for economic support for Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - The bill may get passed, but the contentious items such as Ukraine funding and continued deficit spending remain a burden.
Biden / Harris Watch –
With both feet, biden jumped in with full support of a $40/hr increase in wages, a major UAW demand. He next shuffled off to the coast for a fundraiser. This was just a shameless photo op to try to regain support from union members and to make them believe he is for them - while OTOH, killing their jobs in exchange for EVs.
Illegal Immigration –
A lot of bleating that biden saw the explosive push of illegals and did nothing about it. That isn’t totally correct IMHO, he not only saw it but he encouraged and facilitated it.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures decreasing from the 70’s to the 60’s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Admiral Sokolov killed in missile strikes ??? Russian channel Zvezda published an interview with the commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet - likely to show he was not killed in the Sevastopol strike. Sokolov says that the Black Sea Fleet is successfully carrying out its tasks.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russians hit Orlivka-Isaccea crossing (Romania) at night, 20 trucks damaged along with a school bus full of children.
Fighting has intensified along the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts, but few details are currently available.
Tokmak Axis -.
Mandatory Ukrainian evacuations of families with children from Hulyaypole, Preobrazhenka, Yehorivka and Novopavlivka in Polohy district also Stepnohirsk of Vasylivka district of Zaporizhzhia region. This is potentially to remove them from Russian deeper attacks as the advance south of Robotyne continues.
OUTLOOK –
Well, the Admiral Sokolov saga is an interesting twist. Still some questions about his appearance, but it is a blow to the Ukraine credibility.
OPSEC and fog of war making assessments of what is happening on the ground difficult to sort out. Evidence of major fighting on the Tokmok axis, with Ukrainian forces now being reinforced with armor/tanks exploiting and widening gaps in the defenses.
Bakhmut, fighting to the south of the city continues to push Russia forces to the east. The current front line - a railroad line - is not proving to be adequate for Russians. North of the city, Ukrainian forces reportedly have fixed Russian units in place and incapable of influencing the fight around Bakhmut.
As always, things can rapidly change.
Israel –
During the past few days, the Iran-backed Palestinian terror group Hamas has again been encouraging Palestinians living under its rule in the Gaza Strip to march toward the border with Israel and attack Israelis. Similar protests in 2018, also encouraged and sponsored by Hamas, resulted in the death or injury of hundreds of Palestinians.
Hamas is now sending Palestinians to get killed or injured on the border with Israel because it is apparently upset with its friends in Qatar, the Gulf state that has long been supporting the Muslim Brotherhood organization, of which Hamas is an off-shoot. Hamas is evidently taken aback because Qatar has reduced the monthly financial grant it has been providing to the Islamist movement in the Gaza Strip over the past five years.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19997/hamas-sending-palestinians-to-die
OBSERVATION - Typical moslem move - send the cannon fodder forward in order to force a political issue linked to money.
Black Swans
People love to shake out the Yellowstone Supervolcano threat every so often. Yes, geologically the threat is there, but there are greater ones around the world to consider first. The Campi Flegrei, Italy area is one such area. The last eruption at this volcano, from September 29 to October 6, 1538 (VEI 3), formed the Monte Nuovo cinder cone.
It has a history of intense volcanic and seismic activity. Episodes of bradyseism—slow ground movement—accompanied by seismic swarms have been observed in the past, particularly during 1969-72 and 1982-84. More recently, ground uplift in the Rione Terra area reached approximately 113 cm (44 inches) by July 2023.
The area is currently experiencing a seismic swarm consisting of approximately 64 events, with magnitudes ranging up to 4.2, has been observed since 05:06 LT on September 26, 2023.
Seismologists and volcanologists monitoring the event say that the current activity is nothing to be concerned about in the short term.
Our world is dynamic and its history is one marked by cataclysmic events such as super volcanism. This densely populated region in Italy continues to be a risk to the locals, but adjacent lands as well. Know your local hazards and prepare appropriately.
Fall is a beautiful time here in the Redoubt, the yellows, oranges and red against the green of pine forests is fabulous . It is also a time of holding our breath that the night time lows don’t exceed out plastic greenhouse ability to protect our ripening tomato and other crops for a least another week or so. Such is the hazard of a high, mountain valley for crops.
Economy –
Bank of America’s CEO Brian Moynihan believes that the Fed has ‘won’ the fight against inflation and we are going to have a ‘soft’ landing. However, his views ignore the resurgence of inflation over the past two months and the ripple of sharply increasing fuel prices through the economy that will drive inflation even higher. IMHO this is a big dose of hopium.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Various black activists are calling Tuesday’s looting spree (as well as probably also referring to the coordinated looting throughout Blue metro cities) a form of ‘reparations’. This justification for continued crime - combined with a lack of law enforcement / criminal prosecution - will only guarantee its continued growth.
IN RELATED - Pennsylvania Liquor Control Board Press Secretary Shawn Kelly said all state-owned Fine Wine & Good Spirits stores in Philadelphia will be closed until it is safe to reopen after 18 of the state-owned liquor stores were looted overnight Tuesday.
OBSERVATION - From posted videos of the looting, the black community won’t be hurting for a while given all the liquor they stole on Tuesday.
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OVERALL OBSERVATION - The pressure gauge caused by illegals is in the red zone - I know I’m repeating myself here. Some 7 million plus illegals that have come in during biden’s reign are the powder keg that could explode next year. We’ve seen what uncontrolled immigration has done to portions of europe and you darn well better believe the same is headed our way. 2024 would be a perfect time for such an explosion. Combined with the restitution seeking sectors of society the potential for violence exceeding 2020 are at an all time high IMHO. All is needed is a spark. Will the illegals going the BLM/Antifas? Will it become illegals vs restitution blacks in a fight over crumbs falling off the democrat master’s table?
So far the majority of the illegals are being moved into established blue states/cities (with the exception of Texas). It is harder to place them into other red states due to the clear lack of facilities to house them, combined with the fact that the feds would get strong push back. That may soon shift with the feds trying to force crushing numbers on red states to overwhelm their resources as well as resistance to the govt.
I really can’t see just what the details will be and how things will play out, but I’m sure that this illegal invasion will be a key component of the likely domestic turmoil and violence being forecast by some in 2024.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Pvt. Travis King has been turned over to US custody after a short stay in NK.
NK determined that as a low-ranking serviceman he had no real value in terms of either leverage or information. They probably decided that King, 23, was more trouble to keep than to simply release him.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Continued warnings concerning wuhan outbreak this fall / winter and the push to get more people jabbed are falling more and more on deaf ears. However, compliance using masks, etc. that have been demonstrated to be ineffective are still worming their way into compliant areas of society such has health care and schools.
POLITICAL FRONT –
There are rumors that Fox hosted a republican candidate debate last night and no one gave a rats rear end.
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The biden criminal family is under increasing pressure as more and more evidence of criminal pay to play schemes keep coming out of the wood work. And the MSM is doing very little to try to paper over the damage.
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Trump spoke to strikers overnight, finding substantial and vocal supporters among the leftist leaning union.
Illegal Immigration –
A red NYC borough has successfully fought back against housing illegals in a school that was to be rehabbed and put back as a school. This was a significant pushback to Mayor Adam’s attempt to apply the NY ‘right to shelter’ law - a law specifically for citizens - onto all illegals and to force the problem into other sectors of the city. The judge has ordered NY to remove the illegals that were placed in the school ASAP.
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Texas has repaired the section of concertina wire that was cut for a second time by border patrol agents this week. As with military barriers, only those sections that have forces to respond to breaches will remain intact. TX needs to station its Rangers on these sections and arrest any border patrol personnel attempting to cut the wire again.
China –
Shares in crisis-hit Chinese property giant Evergrande have been suspended in Hong Kong amid reports its chairman has been placed under police surveillance.
It follows reports earlier this week that other current and former executives had also been detained.
Thursday’s market statement did not give a reason for the trading halt.
But it marks another low for the heavily indebted property giant which defaulted in 2021, triggering China’s current real estate market crisis.
OBSERVATION - The threat of a full blown Evergrande collapse weighs heavy on the Chinese economy. If Evergrande defaults, banks and other lenders may be forced to lend less. This squeezes capitol needed or business growth / expansion and maintains the current doldrums of the Chinese economic engine.
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China’s Defense Ministry announced on Thursday that China and Saudi Arabia will hold joint naval drills next month in China. The exercise, dubbed “Blue Sword 2023,” will occur in Guangdong province and focus on maritime counterterrorism operations.
OBSERVATION - China’s increasing its influence on the middle east and Saudi Arabia in particular to gain one thing - oil security.
North/South Korea –
NK has incorporated nuclear weapons in its constitution. Also deported the US Army private who defected a few months ago.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Logistics –
Open source satellite imagery shows that Russian is working hard to improve the rail network in southern Ukraine in an attempt to support alternative ways of getting supplies to forces via the ‘land bridge’, probably in anticipation of more attacks that close off the Kerch Bridge or even destroy it.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Wagner force elements are struggling to reestablish their effectiveness under new chains of command. Having returned to the fight, they have not been the force to be reckoned with as before.
Economic Impact –
Shortages of domestic gasoline and diesel has caused Russia to cease export and retain those stocks for domestic as well as war support.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures decreasing from the 70’s to the 60’s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Admiral Sokolov keeps showing up in videos suggesting he is still alive. However, these videos contain no material as to the dates they were taken, so there is still a degree of skepticism over claims of his being alive.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine got their game back up overnight shooting down 34 of 44 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight. NOTE - Increasing reliance on the Shahed drones vs their other missile supplies.
Increasing fog of war and OPSEC blotting out a clear picture of what is happening on the front lines. Even most of the Russian milblogger sphere has gone silent. That which is seeping out on the periphery still indicates that Russian is still trying to reinforce its southern Ukraine positions and that the Ukraine breakthrough south of Robotyne is expanding and Russians are taking a pounding and losing ground.
Tokmak Axis -.
Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine is hitting the region south of Robotyne with a battalion sized (4 armored companies) force backed up by major artillery support.
Bakhmut Axis -
Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has penetrated the most recent Russian line of defense along the N-S railroad south of Bakhmut.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Shahed drone hits reported in Kirovohrad region overnight
OUTLOOK –
The Ukraine deep war appears to be at a strategic pause as they reassess successes and identify targets for the next round.
Progress on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts, though clouded, are following established trends by the Ukraine army and are not outlandish. Last week claims that the dragons teeth and armor ditch portions of the Russian defensive line were breached and now is evident that Ukraine armor is helping to press the attack. In Bakhmut, Russian last week were forced to retreat and reestablish a defensive line along the rail line. Ukraine apparently is pressing the attack before they can be prepared. Typical.
Turbulence that has developed between Ukraine and European allies has been very rough and threatening Ukraine supply chains. Issues are being worked through but the extent of damage to relations has still occurred. Poland is not going to cut off its nose to spite its face - it realizes that they are Russia’s next target should Ukraine fall and it is better for them to have Ukraine fight than them.
As with everything during this war, conditions can change very rapidly.
Belarus -
Observers note that the camp set up months ago for Wagner forces has now been mostly taken down.
Saudi Arabia –
See China above.
Venezuela -
US Chevron is resuming petroleum operations in conjunction with the Venezuelan govt.
Central / South America General-
Costa Rica has declared an emergency over the surge of illegals coming through the country from Panama. Evidence is that numbers coming through the Darin Gap have reached astronomical levels and NGOs are spending large amounts of money to facilitate that movement.