Globalism / Great Reset –
International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a presentation this week that carbon pricing – government charges for emitting carbon – can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and generate government revenue to relieve debt burdens.
OBSERVATION - Carbon tax credits scam has already been shown to be a literal waste of money here in the US and has done the opposite of reducing debt burdens and cleaning up the air. This is just another method to remove fossil fuels off the chart by the WEF et al.
Economy –
Interest rates will likely need to be higher to eliminate inflation from the U.S. economy, says Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman.
Speaking at a business conference in Alberta, Canada, on Oct. 2, the central bank official argued that policymakers would need to pull the trigger on additional rate hikes to tackle price pressures, particularly as the recent spike in energy prices threatens the institution’s gains over the past year. “Inflation continues to be too high, and I expect it will likely be appropriate for the Committee to raise rates further and hold them at a restrictive level for some time to return inflation to our 2 percent goal in a timely way,” Ms. Bowman said.
OBSERVATION - Recent economic news is strongly suggesting that the wheels of the economy are about to fall off. The fed’s myopic fix on inflation is missing the effects of the current high rates on other sectors of the economy.
***
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index plummeted to 36.3 in October 2023, compared to September’s 43.2 and well below market forecasts of 41.6. It was the 26th consecutive month in which the reading stayed in pessimistic territory, hitting its lowest point since August 2011, amid growing concerns about the effects of a prolonged period of elevated interest rates on the US economy. The six-month economic outlook index cratered 9.6 points to 28.7, a record low since the survey began in early 2001; and the personal finances subindex slid 6 points to 46.8, returning to pessimistic territory. Meanwhile, the IBD/TIPP Financial-Related Stress Index jumped 2.4 points to 70.5, the highest level since December 2008, when the country was mired in a recession. At the same time, the gauge of support for federal economic policies plunged 5.1 points to a still-dismal 33.5, a nine-year low.
source: Technometrica Market Intelligence/The Investor’s Business Daily
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/economic-optimism-index
OBSERVATION - these numbers also track with the timeframe that the fed bond rates have spiked. At the fed level, something seems to have cracked on the national economic world during the 4th Q FY 2023.
***
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Nightmare Levels.
The delinquency rate of commercial mortgages on office properties that had been securitized into CMBS spiked to 5.6% by loan balance in September, having more than tripled so far this year, from a delinquency rate of 1.6% in December
OBSERVATION - Lack of recovery from wuhan shutdowns combined with malaise in economic growth have created a parallel mortgage monster with private mortgages. Throw in the recent significant numbers of major retailers closing stores in crime ridden hell holes like San Fran and elsewhere are placing further pressure on the commercial market.
***
U.S. Money Supply is continuing to contract and is down 3.69% and falling. In the past 150 years, the US Money Supply has only contracted five (5) times; and they were Recessions and the Great Depression. It is happening again.
Two U.S. money supply metrics that investors tend to pay close attention to are M1 and M2. The former accounts for the cash and coins in circulation, as well as the demand deposits within an individual’s checking account. Meanwhile, M2 factors in everything in M1 and adds money market accounts, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit (CDs) below $100,000. The main difference is that M2 factors in cash that takes a little extra work to get your hands on.
Over the past 153 years, there have only been five instances where M2 has declined by at least 2% on a year-over-year basis: the 1870s, 1893, 1921, 1931-1933, and 2023. In order, these instances resulted in a depression, panic, depression, Great Depression, and now todays situation.. In the previous four instances, it was an ominous sign for Wall Street.
OBSERVATION - I’m no money guru, but multiple things are hitting at the same time. 10 yr Treasury spikes, the M2 situation and Economic Optimism Index all hitting major spikes/declines on nearly the same time frame and reaching near record levels in a very short period of time. As I said above, It seems like something snapped during the 4th Q and it is just beginning to surface in the economy in general. Most concerning is the correlation of the current M2 to past depressions/recession.
***
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 7.72%, according to Mortgage News Daily. Mortgage rates follow loosely the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which has been climbing this week. Analysts are expecting it to penetrate the 8% threashold soon. Rates have not been this high since the end of 2000.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The head of NATO’s Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, sounded the alarm on Tuesday that NATO has depleted its stockpiles of weapons and ammunition. At the Warsaw Security Forum, Bauer urged Western defense industries to ramp up production at a much higher tempo and produce larger volumes of war materials.
On Monday, the Pentagon warned Congress in a letter that it was running out of money to replace weapons and ammunition sent to Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Like in so many other sectors, a large component of the war in Ukraine is to not only deplete weapons and ammo used by Russia, but by NATO allies as well, weakening the military forces as a whole. This while China continues to grow its military by leaps and bounds.
***
According to Reuters, the US currently has just 17 days of supply left in the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). This is roughly half the historical average of ~33 days dating back to 1990.
Meanwhile, oil prices are still almost 30% above the target price the US set to refill them.
OBSERVATION - biden’s drawdown was a deliberate action designed to weaken the US’ ability to respond to a major global situation.
POLITICAL FRONT –
McCarthy was voted out of his speakership position with 8 republicans, led by Gaetz, joining all democrats. Now the scrum begins for his replacement, currently scheduled deliberations net Tuesday-Wednesday of next week.
IN RELATED - As one of his first acts as the acting speaker, Rep. Patrick McHenry ordered former Speaker Nancy Pelosi to vacate her Capitol hideaway office by Wednesday, according to an email sent to her office viewed by POLITICO.
“Please vacate the space tomorrow, the room will be re-keyed,” wrote a top aide on the Republican-controlled House Administration Committee. The room was being reassigned by the acting speaker “for speaker office use,” the email said.
***
NY Judge Engoron backtracked on claim that he effectively tossed out 80% of the claim against Trump.
***
Historian Victor Davis Hanson sat down with Tucker Carlson to discuss his perspective on the current political climate in the US, asserting that American liberalism is characterized by dishonesty, and warning about what he sees as liberal efforts to introduce a highly intolerant age.
Most specifically, Hanson told Carlson that:
“I think they’ve come to the conclusion that Trump is an existential threat and by association, half the country is to their vision of what they want to transform us into, and so they feel that whatever means necessary are justified.”
“The next 12 months will be the most explosive in history”
OBSERVATION - I’m a fan of VDH - he is one of the clearest presenters of the dangers of modern progressivism there is out there. Key words here are “whatever means necessary are justified” I’ve said it a lot - democrats are more than willing to burn it all down as long as they rule over the ashes. This willingness to resort to violence - seen especially in their urban base voters - cheered on by rich, white liberals is especially worrisome as we enter the 2024 election year.
The rumored loss of Chinese PLA Navy submarine ‘093-417’ , an event I posted on months ago, has resurfaced (no pun intended) in news. According to a UK intelligence report:
“Incident happened at 08.12 local resulting in the death of 55 crew members: 22 officers, 7 officer cadets, 9 petty officers, 17 sailors. Dead include the captain Colonel Xue Yong-Peng.
‘Our understanding is death caused by hypoxia due to a system fault on the submarine. The submarine hit a chain and anchor obstacle used by the Chinese Navy to trap US and allied submarines.”
OBSERVATION - The resurgence of this incident is attributed in part to unconfirmed reports that families of the sailors have been seeking to find out what has happened given that they have not returned now long after they were suppose to. Not surprising China is closed lipped as well. Still listed as RUMINT.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Economic Impact –
Russia plans to spend 10.8tn rubles ($110bn) on defense next year, finance minister Anton Siluanov says. “That’s more than this year, but the money is essential to achieve our main goal: making sure we win,” he says
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 70s with chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Continued limited verified reports on the action. Even missile/drone active is apparently at a low.
Tokmak Axis -.
Ukranian reports of widening the salient westward from Robotyne.
Bakhmut Axis -
Ukraine claiming advances in the towns of Klischiyivka and Andriyivka located south of Bakhmut. Ukraine forces have reportedly breached the Russian line set up along the N-S rail line. This opens up deeper cuts into supply routes into Bakhmut.
Russian Territory –
Ukraine reportedly hit a S-400 SAM in Belgorod region of Russia overnight
OUTLOOK –
I expect continued small gains by Ukraine along both the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts. if the limited reports bear out, both could see a rapid breakout at any time. However, it seems the cycle is that of Russian counter attacks trying to recover gains made by Ukraine. With the current, local Ukrainian artillery advantage, these attacks are reportedly turning into disasters for Russia.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Romania has announced that it will be deploying additional military forces to Kosovo due to rising tensions in the region.
Serbian FM says Belgrade wants deescalation in Kosovo.
The US confirms that the Serbs are withdrawing their troops from the borders of Kosovo.
OBSERVATION - Reinforcements of KFOR appear to have served their purpose in deterring Serbia from escalating matters in Kosovo. For warplanners in Serbia, this also gives them data to gauge NATO responses and times.
Middle East / N. Africa General -
Protests erupted in Egypt after President Sissi announced his intention to run for a 3rd term in office. Sissi and the military took power after clamping down on the government of the Muslim Brotherhood, which was formed after the Arab Spring.
OBSERVATION - Will need to see if these protests gain any traction. Egypt has been pretty stable since Sissi took power.
Misc of Note –
Today, a nationwide *TEST* will be sent across cell phones, wireless devices, radio, and TV.
ET: 2:20pm
CT: 1:20 pm
MT: 12:20 pm
PT: 11:20 am
AK: 10:20 am
Again, I am not expecting any surprises from this test.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Pope Francis has published his second document on the topic of “climate change,” condemning “human-induced climate changes” and calling for “obligatory” measures across the globe to address the issue.
There must be “binding forms of energy transition that meet three conditions: that they be efficient, obligatory and readily monitored,” wrote Pope Francis, outlining his hopes for the upcoming COP28 “climate change” conference, which he highlighted as a potentially “historic event.”
OBSERVATION - The pope is demanding that nations be forced to comply with these bogus climate change dictates.
Economy –
General Motors secured a new $6 billion line of credit as the automaker braces for additional strikes by the United Auto Workers union. The targeted strikes have already cost the automaker $200 million during the third quarter, GM said Wednesday. The new line of credit is “prudent” to bolstering GM’s balance sheet amid expectations that the union may expand and prolong strikes against the company, GM CFO Paul Jacobson said.
OBSERVATION - The other two auto makers are probably in the same condition. Not only are the auto makers feeling the pinch, but all the suppliers as well.
***
Goldman Sachs economists are predicting that the govt will shut down when the 45 day CR runs out. They estimate that it won’t go longer than two weeks, after that the political ramifications will skyrocket. A lot depends on who the next speaker is.
***
Saudi Arabia, Russia, and an OPEC+ panel decided in yesterday’s meetings to keep their voluntary oil supply cuts in place thru December. This could keep oil between $60 - $90 / barrel.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The FBI reportedly is secretly targeting supporters of former President Donald Trump to prevent violence or any major civil disturbances around the time of the 2024 elections.
Newsweek reported Wednesday it spoke to more than a dozen current or former government officials who specialize in terrorism in a three-month investigation about the domestic-security landscape and to evaluate what biden’s regime is doing about what it calls domestic terrorism.
OBSERVATION - At risk of repeating myself, the FBI and other alphabet agencies designated the MAGA base across the country as potential domestic terrorists as far back as 0bama. This is simply the govt conducting battlefield information preparation to feed the narrative to the MSM, as well as justify potential (eventual?) iron fist arrests of regime opponents.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Army is launching a sweeping overhaul of its recruiting to focus more on young people who have spent time in college or are job hunting early in their careers, as it scrambles to reverse years of enlistment shortfalls.
A major part of this is the formation of a new professional force of recruiters instead of relying on soldiers randomly assigned to the task.
Army Secretary Christine Wormuth, in an interview with The Associated Press, said some of the changes will begin in the next 90 days but a wholesale transformation will take years.
OBSERVATION - Hiring ‘professionals’ isn’t going to help. The military / biden regime has demonized the patriotic demographic that normally fills the volunteer ranks - designating them as hate groups, domestic terrorist, etc. Why serve in the military for a regime that despises you and will throw you under the bus as in Afghanistan.
POLITICAL FRONT –
A ruling on Tuesday by the US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit marks a leap for the safeguarding of free speech within the social media arena. This decision sees the addition of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) to a preliminary injunction in the ongoing legal contest of Missouri v. Biden.
The CISA, described as the “nerve center” of federal government censorship, is responsible for censoring the American public, facilitating collusion between the feds and social media companies, and interfering in our elections. The court’s original opinion, which addressed the White House, FBI, CDC, and Surgeon General, did not include CISA.
The court stated that CISA “shall take no actions, formal or informal, directly or indirectly, to coerce or significantly encourage social-media companies to remove, delete, suppress, or reduce, including through altering their algorithms, posted social-media content containing protected free speech,” according to an excerpt provided sources.
OBSERVATION - Keep cross referenced under CW2. The regime is trying to shape the information battlefield for 2024 and this is a major stumbling block for them. This will not stop them because they have repeatedly demonstrated the willingness to violate court orders/decisions commonly by doing work arounds using other actors.
***
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said the House GOP should eliminate the single-member Motion to Vacate rule after former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) ouster, adding that Americans expect a functioning government.
OBSERVATION - The swamp discovered a weakness in the system and after only ONE successful effort over the years they have to change it. Some believe that the democrats had a back room deal to prevent this from happening to McCarthy, but reneged on it (hence Pelosi losing her special office space).
Illegal Immigration –
DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas now claims there is ‘IMMEDIATE NEED’ to waive regulations and BUILD BORDER WALL in Texas as immigration surges..
Biden’s administration is to build a section of border wall in southern Texas in an effort to stop rising levels of immigration.
Around 20 miles (32km) will be built in Starr County along its border with Mexico, where officials report high numbers of crossings. Building a border wall was a signature policy of Donald Trump as president and fiercely opposed by Democrats.
Dozens of federal laws have been waived in order to approve its construction, including the Clean Air Act and Safe Drinking Water Act.
According to a proposal by US Customs and Border Protection, the barriers will consist of large bollards embedded in a concrete base, as well as gates, cameras and CCTV equipment.
Homeland Security said it would use funding secured during Donald Trump’s presidency to build the new section.
OBSERVATION - The regime is buckling under pressure from democrat mayors and governors swamped with illegals, killing budgets and the rise of citizen resistance to the establishment of illegal facilities. Violent crime by illegals is growing - kept under wraps by the MSM- but very noticed by the people with illegals in their communities across the nation.
This also comes to bear as Mayorkas testified under oath that the border was secure and there was no illegal immigration problem.
This is too little, too late to make any meaningful reduction in crossings before the 2024 elections.
***
Chiago’s mayor tried to pitch a plan for an illegal immigrant ‘colony’ at a pubic meeting. Attendees shouted him down and were against the proposal.
OBSERVATION - The flood of illegals has the potential to seriously bite democrats in 2024 - hence the renewed fence building noted above.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russian Black Sea Fleet moved most of its ships from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk.
All three operational submarines of Project 06363 (Kilo-class), both frigates of Project 11356 (Admiral Grigorovich-class) & one patrol ship moved to Novorossiysk.
Project 1135M (Krivak-class frigate), five large landing ships, and, apparently, the bulk of small missile ships are also in Novorossiysk.
Another part of the ships - one large landing ship, two small missile ships and both new minesweepers of Project 12700 (Alexandrit-class) - moved from Sevastopol to Feodosia.
A reduced number of Russian air/missile strikes the last few days due likely to the Russian Navy maneuvering assets further away to prevent Ukrainian attacks and VKS parts and munitions resupply issues.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 70s with chances of rain showers for the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
More Russia drone attacks, majority intercepted by Ukraine ADA. Judging from the reported targets, they may be focusing on trying to hit Ukraine logistical facilities.
See Russia for the major redeployment of the Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea.
Russian Territory –
Ukraine reportedly hit a S-400 SAM in Belgorod region of Russia overnight
OUTLOOK –
For a country with virtually no navy, Ukraine has forced Russia to withdraw to ‘safer’ ports on the eastern margins of the Black Sea. As noted above, this may be one of the reasons fewer Kaliber missiles have been launched - Russia fears entering the primary launch zones in the Black Sea because of roving drones and extended range anti-ship missiles. Expect low missile support from the fleet to continue for the near future.
The Russian S400s still show vulnerabilities to Ukraine drones. They are expensive and in very limited quantities. The Belgorod strike helps open drone flight lanes towards Moscow.
Action on the southern and eastern fronts are still obscured by OPSEC and other fog of war issues. Still, Ukraine is systematically pushing Russians out of their positions, based on some valid sources.