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On Oct. 30, 2008, Pres. candidate Barack 0bama said, “We are five days away from fundamentally transforming the United States of America,” and it seems to me that America is going through a fundamental transformation (a spiritual, moral, and economic downward spiral).

CW2 / Domestic violence -

Antifa et al are openly supporting Hamas and its attacks on Israel. Expect them to show up at these Hamas rallies across the US today and in future days.

Terrorism -

ALL - CONSIDER BEING AT A HEIGHTENED STATE OF ALERT, ESPECIALLY IF FIGHTING EXPANDS TO INCLUDE HEZBOLLAH AND IRAN. Though Jewish areas and synagogues face the highest threat level, remember Iran’s mantra “death to America” so other sectors of the country could be at an equal risk - especially to deflect support from Israel.

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RUMINT - Looking for some verification of this report but it is being noted that in Matamoros, Mexico, directly across the border from Brownsville, Tx, Hamas has a training center at a large factory, used to train young, military age men. These men have been reported as infiltrating into the US.

OBSERVATION - Establishment of sleeper cells by islamic terrorists was a major concern here in TM in the months after 9/11. With the numbers of pro hamas rallies in the US any such sleeper cells would find shelter and support in preparation for any future attack.

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NYPD, LAPD and Miami cops are deploying extra officers to Jewish areas and synagogues following Hamas terror attack on Israel.

‘While there is no credible threat to New York City at this time, our administration is in touch with Jewish leaders across the five boroughs, and we have directed the NYPD to deploy additional resources to Jewish communities and houses of worship citywide to ensure that our communities have the resources they need to make sure everyone feels safe,’ Adams explained about the extra security.

United Airlines, American and Delta have suspended service to and from Tel Aviv following the unrest.
‘The safety of our customers and crew is our top priority. We are closely monitoring the situation and we are adjusting flight schedules as required,’ United said in a statement.

OBSERVATION - See warning at top of section.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

No US military activity noted or reported in response to the Hamas/Israel war. The Ford CSG is in the Med providing support to the Ukraine effort. The Reagan is at sea near Japan. The Bataan ARG is on station in the Persian Gulf region.

POLITICAL FRONT –

In the face of the brutal slaughter of Israeli civilians, the biden regime is scrambling to put the best face on appeasement payments to Iran and Palestinian authorities.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has approved the release of $75 million in crucial food assistance for Palestinians just hours before the funds were set to be redistributed elsewhere.

Blinken’s decision came after months of pressure from Democratic lawmakers and dozens of civil society groups, who warned that blocking the aid would create a humanitarian disaster for over one million Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.

This follows the release of $6 BILLION in assets held in Qatar that are only to be used for ‘humantarian’ causes, a claim Iran rejected saying it would spend the money as it sees fit. This is on top of $8 billion unfrozen earlier. The regime is trying to claim that these funds could not be used to fund terror, but they are blind to the fact that these funds frees up their money to go to support terror.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Biden issued an underwhelming statement on the Hamas/Israel war and then shuffled off the platform without answering any questions.

Illegal Immigration –

Illegal immigrants are making demands in Chicago, NYC and other major metro areas claiming “better housing,” “safe food and water,” and “You promised us safe living conditions, but our rights have been violated.”

Even Chicago Alderman Ray Lopez, a fellow Democrat, took shots at the mayor for his handling of the crisis. “Migrant asylum-seekers are now using their vehicles to block streets, perform sex acts and otherwise disrupt life in communities where this behavior wasn’t the norm. To make matters worse, residents now feel that their only recourse is to take action against the migrant asylum-seekers.” Other demands are for more money handouts, job training and better accommodations.

Community sentiment is boiling towards vigilantism in these areas.

OBSERVATION - File equally under CW2 as this is beginning to boil over.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.

Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.

Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.

********

Russia saying that Israel should return to its pre-1967 borders and allow the palis to establish their capitol in Jerusalem.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 70s with chances of rain showers for the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Israeli/Hamas war continues to suck up much of the bandwidth over what is happing in Ukraine. Some reports do get thru. Overnight Russia launched a large rocket strike on Kharkiv, and artillery stikes on Kherson. Ukraine states that they are making progress to the south of Bakhmut as well as west of Robotyne.

OUTLOOK -
Until something substantial happens, most of the reporting will be overwhelmed by Israel info as many OSINT types have shifted their focus to the middle east. Some interesting analysis has come out recently -

“This autumn/winter will be a record for the number of drones that Russia will use against Ukraine. More than 1000 Shaheds were used against Ukraine in the last 6 months of the heating season. Russia used more than 500 drones in September only,” said spokesman of the Ukrainian Air Force Yuriy Ignat.

September has also been a big month for Ukrainian drones as well, softening up Russian air defenses for major strikes by cruise missiles.

Israel –

NOTE - I’ve only viewed a fraction of the abundant photos and videos - mostly posted by hamas - of the brutal and deliberate executions of unarmed Israelis from the start of the war. If you are a palestinian ‘supporter’, support yourself off this site as there is absolutely no justification for these terrorist actions.

Also note - there is an abundance of recycled photos/videos from years past that have been thrown into the mix - don’t accept anything at face value.

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Remember, in 2005 Israel withdrew from Gaza and left them world-class hydroponics and greenhouses that provided huge amounts of food. These Palestinians promptly destroyed every nice thing Israel left behind - relegating their citizens to living in near stone age conditions.

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A coincidental coincidence? On Sept. 18-23, 2023, the UN General Assembly met in New York, and the U.S. greatly criticized Israel for settlement construction on the West Bank and refusing to divide the Promised Land.

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Biden’s office of Palestinian Affairs set out an ill advised Xweet stating -
“We unequivocally condemn the attack of Hamas terrorists and the loss of life that incurred. We urge all sides to refrain from violence and retaliatory attacks. Terror and violence solve nothing.”

Essentially saying Israel should surrender to this level of terror.
The Xweet was later removed.

****
Overnight things are still very fluid and in country reports are conflicting in some ways. Quick summary -

-600+ Israelis killed
-1,500+ wounded
-3,000+ rockets fired into Israel (down from the initial estimate of 5000)
-Dozens of Israeli soldiers and civilians taken hostage and now are POWs in Gaza
-252 Palestinians dead 1,000+ wounded

These numbers are expected to increase substantially. Israeli Police and Recovery Teams have arrived at the site where a music festival for peace was taking place near the border with the Gaza Strip before they were attacked by Hamas terrorists reportedly causing a significant loss of human life; Israeli Officials have stated that they expect the death toll to drastically rise and possibly double now that Teams have reached the festival site.

Israel is still in the process of regaining control of portions of southern Israel taken over by Hamas forces Hamas is still able to get troops and support to these hold out areas. The link below is to a map that generally depicts the situation Hamas is believed to control areas in red

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F76cx1qXYAEDSoT?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Israeli forces liberating small towns and kibbutzes are reporting scenes of incredible brutal murders. Hamas has posted some videos showing their terrorists going door to door in these communities killing who ever they find. Israel has captured dozens of Hamas terrorists in the clean-up process.

Rockets continue to be fired at Israel, but in substantially reduced numbers as the air strikes by the IAF appear to be taking their toll.

Israel has dropped tons of bombs on Gaza, leveling many ‘high rises’ containing Hamas and associated facilities. Israel has largely done away with the ‘knocking’ technique (dropping small bomb on roofs to warn civilians to get out) and striking them outright. Currently, nothing appears to be off limits to airstrikes if Hamas us using them. Overnight IAF hit two mosques being used as control centers by Hamas.

Israel continues the largest military call up since 1973. Israeli citizens who are abroad have reportedly begun to receive phone calls to notify them of their call-up to active military service. In one instance, the Israeli embassy in Greece is starting to arrange flights to take over 5000 of Israeli reservists currently in Greece back to Israel to assist in Gaza war.

Substantial movements of tanks, artillery and other armor have been observed coming out of central Israel and headed for the south, north and east to address the threats from Hamas, Hezbollah and Hezbollah/Iran from Syria - respectively.

The war is spreading -

Overnight, Hezbollah claimed credit for a rocket and mortar attack on an Israeli long-range radar installation on Mt Dov in Northern Israel. This facility is used to detect and track missiles coming from Lebanon and Syria. Israel responded by striking the Hezbollah unit with artillery fire. Security has been Increased at radar and surface-to-air missile batteries in the North of Israel due to the possibility that Islamist factions in Lebanon and Syria may be attempting to “Knock Out the Eyes and Ears of the IDF” which would be used to defend the country against long-range and intermediate-range missiles.

Multiple Israeli tourists shot dead in Alexandria, Egypt by an Egyptian police officer.

Rallies for Hamas are being scheduled around the world today. An Islamic terrorist sympathizing group in Tampa, Florida known as “Resistance of Tampa Bay” is having a pro-HAMAS rally in Tampa, Florida on Sunday October 8, 2023. In the promotion for their event, they said they want to celebrate the “Palestinian martyrs” who murdered Israelis today. They described today’s attacks on Israel as “heroic Palestinian resistance”. Their invitation goes on to say they support “Palestinian liberation and return by any means necessary.”

There’s going to be one in NYC and multiple other cities as well.

Meanwhile, calls from various parts of the world for Israel to exercise “restraint” in the face of the most diabolically brutal attack on Israeli civilians in decades.

NYPD, LAPD and Miami cops deploy extra officers to Jewish areas and synagogues following Hamas terror attack on Israel.

The Israeli nuclear option has been highly rumored about. Not on the table for Gaza - too close to Israel for fallout and damage. This option is on the table if Iran becomes directly involved as it could be used against their nuclear and other weapons facilities. But this is too early in the war to realistically game out this option and there is no evidence that Israel is preparing for such an action (though I’m sure they have there plans being updates as I type).

OVERALL OBSERVATION - Israel is building up for a major invasion into Gaza. Israel has weighed the potential reaction of Hezbollah and Iran and has decided to get it done. The violation of Israeli citizen has crossed too many red lines. IAF and currently engaged Israeli forces will continue the mop up operations in country and keep Hamas pinned down in Gaza so that the invasion force can be pulled together and final operational plans executed. This should take a few days to accomplish as tens (hundreds) of thousands called up reservists fall on equipment and head to assembly areas.

At the same time, Israel is preparing for a war with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria. As with Gaza, the gloves will come off and Israel will be far less restrained targeting Hezbollah positions commonly next to places like schools, hospitals, etc.

Global ‘support’ for Hamas is disgusting, trying to blame Israel for the loss of Israeli lives. So that when Israeli boots hit the ground in Gaza, they will be facing considerable anti-Israeli propaganda. Arab nations are calling for cease fire and deescalation by Israel, potentially knowing that Hamas is about to be taken off the map by Israel.

Hezbollah is on the edge - its fish or cut bait time for them. They are on record saying that when Israel invades Gaza they will enter the war. But I’m not sure they counted on the hornets nest that Hamas stirred up and may be rethinking its commitment. Israel has engaged Hezbollah forces twice already in the past 24 hours and Hezbollah has not taken any retaliation (except perhaps for the Mt Dov attack).

FINALLY - Hamas’ attack should put the final nail in the “two state” solution. They have shown that radical Islam will not live peacefully along side Israel.

Iran –

See Israel on their support for Hamas.

Concerns rising should Iran become directly involved in the Hamas / Israel war, one option they may execute is closing off oil traffic coming out of the region either via mining Hormuz or other naval activity. The US only has an estimated 17 day supply in the strategic reserve, thanks to the regime sell off. The US has increased its presence in the Gulf because of Iranian aggression against shipping in recent months.

Also concerns considering the build up of Iranian backed militias in eastern Syria and the threat posed to US forces in the region.

Syria -

Syrian artillery and Russian air strikes continue to pummel the Idlib area in largely an indiscriminate manner.

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

Taliban is asking for permission to transit arab nations in order to join Hamas in its fight against Israel.

Mexico -

Mexican president says talk about resuming the construction of the wall is “pure publicity”.

It may seem very heartless, but I have little concern for the lives of Palestinian “civilians” in Gaza. They actively participated in desecrating the bodies of dead Israelis (and other foreign nationals) brought back to Gaza, they have actively participated in beating hostages brought back alive from Israel, raping women and children as well as encouraging their children to beat captured Israeli children. This is on top of their celebration of the attack. This makes them participants in Hamas’ warcrimes (as well as committing their own war crimes) - knowing full well what they were doing. They have kept Hamas et al in power. They FAFO’d

Economy –

Oil prices have jumped on concerns that the situation in Israel and Gaza could disrupt output from the Middle East.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed by $2.25 a barrel to $86.83, while US prices also rose. On Monday morning, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude, the US benchmark, was up $2.50 a barrel at $85.30.

Uncertainty over how events could develop in the coming days may also drive investments into US Treasury bonds and the dollar, which investors traditionally buy at times of crisis, said James Cheo from HSBC bank.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

I want to preface this section with a quote I found on X made by Carl Benjamin -

“Today you were given a view into the depths of the beating, bloodthirsty heart of the left. “

“You finally got to see the very bottom of the pit of resentment contained within: applause for the rape of women and the murder of children. This is the true left that lurks beneath the polite norms of civil society. This is the left which admits that there is no act so savage that they will not condone it if it brings about “liberation”.”

“When a group arises that does have the means, no matter how barbaric, they will vicariously revel in the bloodshed because that is what THEY want to do to YOU. Every time they call you an oppressor, this is what they ultimately want YOUR fate to be. “

“Their only regret is that they themselves do not have the fortitude or opportunity to carry out such atrocities. This is what these people really believe and passionately desire, and you are trapped in this civilization with them.”

OBSERVATION - I’ve noted many times here the hatred by the left towards the right - even to the point of violence. Carl hits the nail on the head, these leftists are more than willing to switch this towards Americans HERE.

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Democrat Socialists of America (DSA) facilitated numerous pro-Hamas rallies yesterday across the nation. The DSA was even giving Antifa riot tips to their members and supporters for this event. (NYC Times Square). The DSA has always maintained close ties to violent militants in the U.S. as they share the same political targets. Some violence was noted -

* Fights reportedly broke out at a pro-Israel rally in Fort Lauderdale Florida.
* Major clashes between Hamas supporters and a pro-Israel group in Kirkland, Washington.
* Fight broke out between pro-Israeli and pro-Palestinian protesters in San Diego, California

OBSERVATION - Antifa and BLM expressed their support for these pro-Hamas events as well. For Antifa - the potential violence between Jews and Palestinians in the US may serve as a spring board for them to use to resume 2020 levels of violence.

Terrorism -

This warning was out there over a week ago -

ATF is apparently warning firearms dealers about intelligence showing criminal networks plan to buy .50 cal and/or belt fed rifles in the next 2 months via straw purchasers.

Now combine this with the Hamas/Israel war and the 61,471 migrants from “Special Interest Countries” entered the United States in Fiscal Year 2023. According to a source speaking to Breitbart from within CBP, most of the migrants, mainly single adult males from countries subject to travel warnings by the U.S. State Department due to terrorism, were released into the United States to pursue asylum claims.

The number of migrants from special interest countries climbed by more than 140% from fiscal year 2022 when Border Patrol agents encountered more than 25,500 Special Interest migrants across the southwest border. In all, more than 86,000 “Special Interest Aliens” made the crossing in two years.

According to a 2019 DHS fact sheet, the term “Significant Interest Alien” (SIA) is defined as follows:

“Generally, an SIA is a non-U.S. person who, based on an analysis of travel patterns, potentially poses a national security risk to the United States or its interests. Often such individuals or groups are employing travel patterns known or evaluated to possibly have a nexus to terrorism. DHS analysis includes an examination of travel patterns, points of origin, and/or travel segments that are tied to current assessments of national and international threat environments.”

NOTE - the ATF warning as a precursor to the Hamas invasion, combined with the growing probability that terrorists of many flavors, have entered this country has given many cause for increasing concern. How long before these groups of military age migrants crossing our borders turn into violent terrorists?

There are not current terror warnings issued for the US at this time.

It is being postulated that should Israel Gaza, or Hezbollah/Iran get directly involved that sleeper cells could activate here to cause disruptions to instill fear and try to drive the US away from any further support of Israel.

Combined with a weak administration going into the 2024 elections that appears to be more fixed on making US citizens out to be terrorists rather than searching out real terrorists reeks of weakness - and weakness is what islamic terrorists look for.

Be on the lookout for suspicious behavior here at home. Given the open border we’ve had, it would be stupid to believe no terror cells have entered our country. An attack or multiple once we get involved in the Hamas/Israel war can’t be ruled out.

Highest probable target set will be jewish synagogues and organizations. Secondary targets will be any other agency openly supporting the jews, particularly many evangelical churches.

Secondary targeting would likely be power infrastructure as well as fresh water supplies.

If you live in a major metro area with an abundance of illegals camped out or moslem population - keep your head on a swivel and carry if you can.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group to move to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea as a result of Saturday’s attacks in Israel. The strike group is composed of the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy (CG-60) and Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116), USS Ramage (DDG-61), USS Carney (DDG-64) and USS Roosevelt (DDG-80).

In addition to the repositioning in the strike group, Austin also plans to increase Air Force squadrons of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, F-15, F-16 and A-10 tactical aircraft in the region, according to the secretary’s statement. This amounts to approximately 20-25 jets.

OBSERVATION - Stated mission is a show of support for Israel. Unstated mission could likely include assistance in extracting US citizens from Israel or even special ops strikes to free hostages. Depending on the nature of any attack, the force will self defend and if the source of the attack - Hezbollah and Iran - potentially will continue to launch further attacks, expect punitive strikes.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The biden regime and its media shills are in a massive spin cycle attempting to decouple the millions and billions released to Iran and Hamas controlled palestine over the past few weeks. The central message is that these funds were only for ‘humanitarian’ expenses, but they completely gloss over that funds are fluid and that there is no guarantee that they would be spent strictly on ‘humanitarian’ causes. This is on top of billions to Iran from suspended sanctions relief over the past couple years.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken blew this spin sky high when he admitted to funding terrorism during an interview with NBC News. Blinken, who previously endorsed a $6 billion financial package for Iran alongside President Biden, has now openly admitted that Iran has “unfortunately always used and focused its funds on supporting terrorism.”

Biden / Harris Watch –

While Hamas holds Americans hostage, Joe Biden is enjoying a picnic with a live band.

Illegal Immigration –

NYC looking to cut meals programs for senior citizens in order to pay for supporting illegals.

Growing concerns that terrorists have infiltrated into the US with all the other illegals.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

***

Russian news overwhelmed by the Hamas / Israel war. Monitoring for potential Russian actions in support of Hamas against Israel.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 70s with chances of rain showers for the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Israel/Hamas continues to flood the internet, but Ukraine continues to chisel out successes in the Tokmok front, advancing west to Verbove of Zaporizhzhia region, and on the Bakhmut front, advancing near Klischiyivka and Andriyivka of Donetsk region, south of Bakhmut.

Tokmak Axis -.
Ukraine interdicted a Russian train carrying ammunition to its forces in the Tokmok region.

OUTLOOK -
No significant changes expected as Ukraine continues to chisel away Russian positions in the Bakhmut and Tokmok fronts.

Israel –

Described as Israel’s Pearl Harbor or 9/11, he war continues to be intense, here is my best summary of the last 24 hours

The Israeli Defense Forces has announced this morning that they have now managed to recapture all settlements and facilities near the border with the Gaza Strip and that while there may not be any active fighting right now with Hamas terrorists they are still likely in the country. IDF also reports finding border tunnels in several areas.

Current Israeli death toll is over has exceeded 700, thousands of others are injured. At the Supernova music festival site alone, 260 bodies were found yesterday.
Gaza’s health ministry says 511 people have been killed, and 2,750 injured.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant - “I have ordered a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed. We are fighting human animals and we act accordingly.”
He also said that attacks on the Gaza Strip will soon begin with an intensity that the region has never seen. “The rules of the game have completely changed”

IDF spokesman says some 4,400 rockets have been launched toward Israel since the fighting started on Saturday morning. Hamas still has the capability for intense rocket barrages, but are not at the same levels of the initial attacks. Iron Dome far more able to handle these 100-200 rocket barrages, but there are still some rockets that manage to make it through to hit civilian areas (not including those that impact vacant areas that Iron Dome is designed to ignore)
A high-ranking Israel Defense Forces (IDF) commander said US weapons left in Afghanistan by the Biden administration were found in the hands of Palestinian groups active in the Gaza Strip.

The IAF has reportedly hit over 800 Hamas related targets since the war began. Gaza is being hit almost non-stop by aircraft, artillery and naval gunfire. IAF hit at least two major ammo sites - Al-Rabat college and Western Mosque in the Beach Camp, west of Gaza City. Massive secondary explosions continued for hours making it clear Hamas was storying weapons at those sites..

Analysts indicate that Israel will likely be ready for its ground assault on Gaza within the next 24-48 hours. 300,000 Israeli reservists have been mobilized (up from the previously announced 100,000). Israeli army is reporting that even more people are showing up than those called, its highest mobilization ever.

Clashes have broken out in the West Bank between Palestinian youths and Israeli riot police

Israeli sources: At least 12 missiles were launched from southern Lebanon towards Mount Hermon and the Upper Galilee.

Multiple nations are working to get their citizens out of the country. Poland and now Brazil are in the process of evacuating of citizens in Israel. Others include Serbia, Romania, Thailand, and Kazakhstan.

CNN has reported the State Department has managed to Identify the bodies of 3 Americans who were Killed by Hamas in Israel over the last few days. Per Israeli ambassador to the U.S. Michael Herzog “We know there are Americans among the hostages [in Gaza]”
White House says ‘several’ American citizens killed in Hamas attacks in Israel

Hamas allegedly in talks to free Israeli women, children hostages in exchange for release of 36 Palestinian women and children from Israeli jails - source Reuters
The deputy commander of Hamas , Deputy Commander of the Southern Division of the Hamas Naval Force in the Gaza Strip, Muhammad Abu Ghali, was captured by an elite Israeli special forces unit

US deploying ships and combat air craft to the region - see “Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments” above for details. US is also suppling artillery, Iron Dome missiles and other ammo to Israel.
A spokesman for Hamas has stated, “The movement of the American aircraft carrier does not scare us, and the American administration must realize the consequences of this step.”

OUTLOOK -
Fully expect Israeli ground assault into Gaza within the next 48 hours. A 300,000 man mobilization - on top of its active duty components - is huge. For comparison, this is a larger force than Russia had for its initial invasion of Ukraine. But a lot of the fighting will be urban or urban rubble which favors the defense - as we’ve seen in Ukraine. The major exception is that Israel will have total control of the air, able to place bombs on targets.

I fully expect to see components of warfare that have developed in Ukraine being employed by Hamas, in particular small drones. It will have some effects on directly attacking Israeli armor and tanks, but I don’t think they have the numbers to be as effective as Ukraine is.

One concern for the US Navy is Hamas threat “. . . realize the consequences of this step.”
There is a possibility that Hamas has some sea borne drones like Ukraine that they may try to use to hit a US vessel. However, they would have to get past Israeli gunboats first. Second concern are Hezbollah anti-ship missiles that have been used in the past to hit an Israeli corvette.

With all probability, Hezbollah will launch attacks from Lebanon and Syria once Israel starts its ground war in Gaza.

One final concern is if things get ramped up, Iran will attempt to close off the Strait of Hormuz and even attack US vessels in the region. Currently there is no aircraft carrier CSG in the region. The USS Reagan is at sea near Japan, but would require a number of days to get to the Persian Gulf region. This would force US strategic bombers and fighter aircraft in the region to deal with the first attacks and counter strikes. Such Iranian actions may cause Gulf arab states to redirect their attention from politically attacking Israel and focus on Iran.

There are many other potential dangers to the US should things go sideways. I’ll look to address them as needed in the future. But this is enough for our plate now.

Iran –

WSJ reports that Iran helped plan Hamas’s attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting last Monday. This is supported by statements from Hamas leadership.

After initially confirming their involvement, Iranian spokesmen are now trying to backpedal the open declaration of their support for the Hamas attack.

***
Iran has announced its initial responses to any attack by Israel or the US

- Will respond with missile strikes on Israel from Lebanon, Yemen, and Iran.

- We will send our fighters from Syria to attack Israel.

Source: Iranian officials speaking to Al Jazeera

Iraq -

Syria -

Leaders and members of the Lebanese Hezbollah militia entered a number of military sites northwest of Daraa, and other sites in the Quneitra Governorate close to the border with the occupied Golan. The reinforcements included drones, Iranian Fajr missiles, and advanced weapons that arrived at military sites in the Daraa and Quneitra governorates. Military reinforcements entered “Tall al-Qa’id,” which is located near the town of Jabab, north of Daraa, and similar reinforcements from foreign militias entered a number of military hills located northwest of Daraa, and Tulul al-Sha’ar and Krum in Quneitra Governorate

OBSERVATION - Hezbollah maneuvering in preparation for an attack on Israel. Likely taking advantage of IAF’s attacks on Gaza to move unhindered.

Turkey –

Blinken - Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and I spoke further on Hamas’ terrorist attacks on Israel. I encouraged Türkiye’s advocacy for a cease-fire and the release of all hostages held by Hamas immediately.