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It may seem very heartless, but I have little concern for the lives of Palestinian “civilians” in Gaza. They actively participated in desecrating the bodies of dead Israelis (and other foreign nationals) brought back to Gaza, they have actively participated in beating hostages brought back alive from Israel, raping women and children as well as encouraging their children to beat captured Israeli children. This is on top of their celebration of the attack. This makes them participants in Hamas’ warcrimes (as well as committing their own war crimes) - knowing full well what they were doing. They have kept Hamas et al in power. They FAFO’d

Economy –

Oil prices have jumped on concerns that the situation in Israel and Gaza could disrupt output from the Middle East.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed by $2.25 a barrel to $86.83, while US prices also rose. On Monday morning, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude, the US benchmark, was up $2.50 a barrel at $85.30.

Uncertainty over how events could develop in the coming days may also drive investments into US Treasury bonds and the dollar, which investors traditionally buy at times of crisis, said James Cheo from HSBC bank.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

I want to preface this section with a quote I found on X made by Carl Benjamin -

“Today you were given a view into the depths of the beating, bloodthirsty heart of the left. “

“You finally got to see the very bottom of the pit of resentment contained within: applause for the rape of women and the murder of children. This is the true left that lurks beneath the polite norms of civil society. This is the left which admits that there is no act so savage that they will not condone it if it brings about “liberation”.”

“When a group arises that does have the means, no matter how barbaric, they will vicariously revel in the bloodshed because that is what THEY want to do to YOU. Every time they call you an oppressor, this is what they ultimately want YOUR fate to be. “

“Their only regret is that they themselves do not have the fortitude or opportunity to carry out such atrocities. This is what these people really believe and passionately desire, and you are trapped in this civilization with them.”

OBSERVATION - I’ve noted many times here the hatred by the left towards the right - even to the point of violence. Carl hits the nail on the head, these leftists are more than willing to switch this towards Americans HERE.

***
Democrat Socialists of America (DSA) facilitated numerous pro-Hamas rallies yesterday across the nation. The DSA was even giving Antifa riot tips to their members and supporters for this event. (NYC Times Square). The DSA has always maintained close ties to violent militants in the U.S. as they share the same political targets. Some violence was noted -

* Fights reportedly broke out at a pro-Israel rally in Fort Lauderdale Florida.
* Major clashes between Hamas supporters and a pro-Israel group in Kirkland, Washington.
* Fight broke out between pro-Israeli and pro-Palestinian protesters in San Diego, California

OBSERVATION - Antifa and BLM expressed their support for these pro-Hamas events as well. For Antifa - the potential violence between Jews and Palestinians in the US may serve as a spring board for them to use to resume 2020 levels of violence.

Terrorism -

This warning was out there over a week ago -

ATF is apparently warning firearms dealers about intelligence showing criminal networks plan to buy .50 cal and/or belt fed rifles in the next 2 months via straw purchasers.

Now combine this with the Hamas/Israel war and the 61,471 migrants from “Special Interest Countries” entered the United States in Fiscal Year 2023. According to a source speaking to Breitbart from within CBP, most of the migrants, mainly single adult males from countries subject to travel warnings by the U.S. State Department due to terrorism, were released into the United States to pursue asylum claims.

The number of migrants from special interest countries climbed by more than 140% from fiscal year 2022 when Border Patrol agents encountered more than 25,500 Special Interest migrants across the southwest border. In all, more than 86,000 “Special Interest Aliens” made the crossing in two years.

According to a 2019 DHS fact sheet, the term “Significant Interest Alien” (SIA) is defined as follows:

“Generally, an SIA is a non-U.S. person who, based on an analysis of travel patterns, potentially poses a national security risk to the United States or its interests. Often such individuals or groups are employing travel patterns known or evaluated to possibly have a nexus to terrorism. DHS analysis includes an examination of travel patterns, points of origin, and/or travel segments that are tied to current assessments of national and international threat environments.”

NOTE - the ATF warning as a precursor to the Hamas invasion, combined with the growing probability that terrorists of many flavors, have entered this country has given many cause for increasing concern. How long before these groups of military age migrants crossing our borders turn into violent terrorists?

There are not current terror warnings issued for the US at this time.

It is being postulated that should Israel Gaza, or Hezbollah/Iran get directly involved that sleeper cells could activate here to cause disruptions to instill fear and try to drive the US away from any further support of Israel.

Combined with a weak administration going into the 2024 elections that appears to be more fixed on making US citizens out to be terrorists rather than searching out real terrorists reeks of weakness - and weakness is what islamic terrorists look for.

Be on the lookout for suspicious behavior here at home. Given the open border we’ve had, it would be stupid to believe no terror cells have entered our country. An attack or multiple once we get involved in the Hamas/Israel war can’t be ruled out.

Highest probable target set will be jewish synagogues and organizations. Secondary targets will be any other agency openly supporting the jews, particularly many evangelical churches.

Secondary targeting would likely be power infrastructure as well as fresh water supplies.

If you live in a major metro area with an abundance of illegals camped out or moslem population - keep your head on a swivel and carry if you can.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group to move to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea as a result of Saturday’s attacks in Israel. The strike group is composed of the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy (CG-60) and Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116), USS Ramage (DDG-61), USS Carney (DDG-64) and USS Roosevelt (DDG-80).

In addition to the repositioning in the strike group, Austin also plans to increase Air Force squadrons of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, F-15, F-16 and A-10 tactical aircraft in the region, according to the secretary’s statement. This amounts to approximately 20-25 jets.

OBSERVATION - Stated mission is a show of support for Israel. Unstated mission could likely include assistance in extracting US citizens from Israel or even special ops strikes to free hostages. Depending on the nature of any attack, the force will self defend and if the source of the attack - Hezbollah and Iran - potentially will continue to launch further attacks, expect punitive strikes.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The biden regime and its media shills are in a massive spin cycle attempting to decouple the millions and billions released to Iran and Hamas controlled palestine over the past few weeks. The central message is that these funds were only for ‘humanitarian’ expenses, but they completely gloss over that funds are fluid and that there is no guarantee that they would be spent strictly on ‘humanitarian’ causes. This is on top of billions to Iran from suspended sanctions relief over the past couple years.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken blew this spin sky high when he admitted to funding terrorism during an interview with NBC News. Blinken, who previously endorsed a $6 billion financial package for Iran alongside President Biden, has now openly admitted that Iran has “unfortunately always used and focused its funds on supporting terrorism.”

Biden / Harris Watch –

While Hamas holds Americans hostage, Joe Biden is enjoying a picnic with a live band.

Illegal Immigration –

NYC looking to cut meals programs for senior citizens in order to pay for supporting illegals.

Growing concerns that terrorists have infiltrated into the US with all the other illegals.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.

Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.

Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.

***

Russian news overwhelmed by the Hamas / Israel war. Monitoring for potential Russian actions in support of Hamas against Israel.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 70s with chances of rain showers for the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Israel/Hamas continues to flood the internet, but Ukraine continues to chisel out successes in the Tokmok front, advancing west to Verbove of Zaporizhzhia region, and on the Bakhmut front, advancing near Klischiyivka and Andriyivka of Donetsk region, south of Bakhmut.

Tokmak Axis -.
Ukraine interdicted a Russian train carrying ammunition to its forces in the Tokmok region.

OUTLOOK -
No significant changes expected as Ukraine continues to chisel away Russian positions in the Bakhmut and Tokmok fronts.

Israel –

Described as Israel’s Pearl Harbor or 9/11, he war continues to be intense, here is my best summary of the last 24 hours

The Israeli Defense Forces has announced this morning that they have now managed to recapture all settlements and facilities near the border with the Gaza Strip and that while there may not be any active fighting right now with Hamas terrorists they are still likely in the country. IDF also reports finding border tunnels in several areas.

Current Israeli death toll is over has exceeded 700, thousands of others are injured. At the Supernova music festival site alone, 260 bodies were found yesterday.
Gaza’s health ministry says 511 people have been killed, and 2,750 injured.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant - “I have ordered a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed. We are fighting human animals and we act accordingly.”
He also said that attacks on the Gaza Strip will soon begin with an intensity that the region has never seen. “The rules of the game have completely changed”

IDF spokesman says some 4,400 rockets have been launched toward Israel since the fighting started on Saturday morning. Hamas still has the capability for intense rocket barrages, but are not at the same levels of the initial attacks. Iron Dome far more able to handle these 100-200 rocket barrages, but there are still some rockets that manage to make it through to hit civilian areas (not including those that impact vacant areas that Iron Dome is designed to ignore)
A high-ranking Israel Defense Forces (IDF) commander said US weapons left in Afghanistan by the Biden administration were found in the hands of Palestinian groups active in the Gaza Strip.

The IAF has reportedly hit over 800 Hamas related targets since the war began. Gaza is being hit almost non-stop by aircraft, artillery and naval gunfire. IAF hit at least two major ammo sites - Al-Rabat college and Western Mosque in the Beach Camp, west of Gaza City. Massive secondary explosions continued for hours making it clear Hamas was storying weapons at those sites..

Analysts indicate that Israel will likely be ready for its ground assault on Gaza within the next 24-48 hours. 300,000 Israeli reservists have been mobilized (up from the previously announced 100,000). Israeli army is reporting that even more people are showing up than those called, its highest mobilization ever.

Clashes have broken out in the West Bank between Palestinian youths and Israeli riot police

Israeli sources: At least 12 missiles were launched from southern Lebanon towards Mount Hermon and the Upper Galilee.

Multiple nations are working to get their citizens out of the country. Poland and now Brazil are in the process of evacuating of citizens in Israel. Others include Serbia, Romania, Thailand, and Kazakhstan.

CNN has reported the State Department has managed to Identify the bodies of 3 Americans who were Killed by Hamas in Israel over the last few days. Per Israeli ambassador to the U.S. Michael Herzog “We know there are Americans among the hostages [in Gaza]”
White House says ‘several’ American citizens killed in Hamas attacks in Israel

Hamas allegedly in talks to free Israeli women, children hostages in exchange for release of 36 Palestinian women and children from Israeli jails - source Reuters
The deputy commander of Hamas , Deputy Commander of the Southern Division of the Hamas Naval Force in the Gaza Strip, Muhammad Abu Ghali, was captured by an elite Israeli special forces unit

US deploying ships and combat air craft to the region - see “Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments” above for details. US is also suppling artillery, Iron Dome missiles and other ammo to Israel.
A spokesman for Hamas has stated, “The movement of the American aircraft carrier does not scare us, and the American administration must realize the consequences of this step.”

OUTLOOK -
Fully expect Israeli ground assault into Gaza within the next 48 hours. A 300,000 man mobilization - on top of its active duty components - is huge. For comparison, this is a larger force than Russia had for its initial invasion of Ukraine. But a lot of the fighting will be urban or urban rubble which favors the defense - as we’ve seen in Ukraine. The major exception is that Israel will have total control of the air, able to place bombs on targets.

I fully expect to see components of warfare that have developed in Ukraine being employed by Hamas, in particular small drones. It will have some effects on directly attacking Israeli armor and tanks, but I don’t think they have the numbers to be as effective as Ukraine is.

One concern for the US Navy is Hamas threat “. . . realize the consequences of this step.”
There is a possibility that Hamas has some sea borne drones like Ukraine that they may try to use to hit a US vessel. However, they would have to get past Israeli gunboats first. Second concern are Hezbollah anti-ship missiles that have been used in the past to hit an Israeli corvette.

With all probability, Hezbollah will launch attacks from Lebanon and Syria once Israel starts its ground war in Gaza.

One final concern is if things get ramped up, Iran will attempt to close off the Strait of Hormuz and even attack US vessels in the region. Currently there is no aircraft carrier CSG in the region. The USS Reagan is at sea near Japan, but would require a number of days to get to the Persian Gulf region. This would force US strategic bombers and fighter aircraft in the region to deal with the first attacks and counter strikes. Such Iranian actions may cause Gulf arab states to redirect their attention from politically attacking Israel and focus on Iran.

There are many other potential dangers to the US should things go sideways. I’ll look to address them as needed in the future. But this is enough for our plate now.

Iran –

WSJ reports that Iran helped plan Hamas’s attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting last Monday. This is supported by statements from Hamas leadership.

After initially confirming their involvement, Iranian spokesmen are now trying to backpedal the open declaration of their support for the Hamas attack.

***
Iran has announced its initial responses to any attack by Israel or the US

- Will respond with missile strikes on Israel from Lebanon, Yemen, and Iran.

- We will send our fighters from Syria to attack Israel.

Source: Iranian officials speaking to Al Jazeera

Iraq -

Syria -

Leaders and members of the Lebanese Hezbollah militia entered a number of military sites northwest of Daraa, and other sites in the Quneitra Governorate close to the border with the occupied Golan. The reinforcements included drones, Iranian Fajr missiles, and advanced weapons that arrived at military sites in the Daraa and Quneitra governorates. Military reinforcements entered “Tall al-Qa’id,” which is located near the town of Jabab, north of Daraa, and similar reinforcements from foreign militias entered a number of military hills located northwest of Daraa, and Tulul al-Sha’ar and Krum in Quneitra Governorate

OBSERVATION - Hezbollah maneuvering in preparation for an attack on Israel. Likely taking advantage of IAF’s attacks on Gaza to move unhindered.

Turkey –

Blinken - Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and I spoke further on Hamas’ terrorist attacks on Israel. I encouraged Türkiye’s advocacy for a cease-fire and the release of all hostages held by Hamas immediately.

Things have seemingly exploded on so many fronts, I’m having difficulty tracking them. Some items may get missed in the mess.

Globalism / Great Reset –

No doubt that the globalists are contemplating how to exploit the Hama/Israel war to their advantage.

Economy –

Various sectors of the economy are trying to assess the impacts of the current Hamas / Israeli war and trying to foresee impacts from any expansion of the fighting. Multiple markets are going to be in flux over the rest of the week.

***
UAW has expanded its strike action to include Mack Trucks, bringing the total number of striking members to over 30,000 across 22 states. This brings the total number of striking UAW members to more than 30,000 across 22 states.

OBSERVATION - Another disaster of biden’s making continues to grow.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

Former CIA Director and retired Gen. Michael Hayden seemed to call for the death of Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) Monday night.
Quoting a Twitter post that asked, “Should Tommy Tuberville be removed from his committee? Yes or No?” Hayden wrote, “How about the human race?”

Hayden was one of the dishonest intelligence community veterans who signed a letter dismissing the Hunter Biden laptop story as Russian disinformation.

OBSERVATION - He was just caught echoing the general view of the left that opposition should be killed. As a former flag officer, in the “Before Years” he would be stripped of his rank and retirement benefits for such as statement. He has nothing to fear from this regime.

***
Pro-Israel rallies and demonstrations are growing across the US, increasing the possibility of clashes with Antifa support pro-Hamas groups.

Terrorism -

Multiple conservative commentators are warning that Hamas terrorists would target U.S. cities over the next 12 months, citing a wide variety of off the record sources.

OBSERVATION - With pretty good certainty Hamas and Hezbollah have sleeper cells in country, they have been uncovered in other countries, and we are not immune. However, I consider their insider ‘informants’ to be on the threshold of RUMINT given thats many other pieces of insider information haven’t panned out.

The only thing in my book that is granting any credibility to these warnings are the converging events that would lead to their activation in the next 14 months. 1) War with Israel ; 2) contentious presidential election cycle; 3) Increasingly weak, both mentally and physically president; and 4) potential economic recession / crash all make things favorable.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The USS Ford CSG is nearing station off the coast of Israel.

USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier to enter Busan, S Korea, on Thursday

POLITICAL FRONT –

“Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and I spoke further on Hamas’ terrorist attacks on Israel,” Blinken said in a post on X, formerly Twitter. “I encouraged Türkiye’s advocacy for a cease-fire and release of all hostages held by Hamas immediately,” Blinken said in the since-deleted post.

OBSERVATION - the regime has been totally out to lunch on this foreign policy disaster. The now deleted Xweet essentially called on Israel to sit passively and accept the atrocity.

***
Ariane Tabatabai continues to serve as Chief of Staff to Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict Christopher Maier despite revelations of her ties to the Iranian government intelligence network the Iran Experts Initiative, and pressure from lawmakers for answers.
Combined with the scandal brewing with the Iranian infiltration of the Departments of State and Defense by suspended Iran envoy Robert Malley and still serving Chief of Staff Ariane Tabatabai, combined with the Biden administration’s admission they did not see this attack coming, could become a major scandal for President Biden and an early October surprise heading into 2024.

OBSERVATION - Part of a developing scandal where Iranian influence has gotten established in the govt via biden appointees and friends.

***
It’s official. RFK Jr. said Monday he will run for president as an independent and drop his Democratic primary bid, adding a wrinkle to a 2024 race

OBSERVATION - The MSM is trying to paint this as a negative for republicans in order to firewall democrats from crossing over - Kennedy’s most likely demographic support.

Biden / Harris Watch –

After 11 Americans were confirmed dead in Israel, Joe Biden called a lid a 11:32 AM yesterday. He will not be giving a briefing or making any official statements.
Biden did release a statement confirming the deaths

This is unreal. We’ve never had a President who was willing to show hoe much he doesn’t care about American lives. The world is at war and Americans are dying and the President of the United States is taking a nap!

***
Martha MacCallum asked John Kirby if Joe Biden still stands by his comments that “The only existential threat humanity faces even more frightening than a nuclear war is global warming going above 1.5 degrees in the next 20 — 10 years.”

Kirby: “Absolutely he does. Climate change is an existential threat...”

MacCallum: “More frightening than nuclear war?”

Kirby: Yes

OBSERVATION - Un freeking believable with the world going to heck and global warming is the top concern!!!!

Illegal Immigration –

Growing resentment continues to build pressure as pushback rises in blue cities/states over the flood of illegals.

China –

Riding on the outliers of the current chaos is thought that China may be looking to accelerate its plans to take control of Taiwan - especially if the US gets involved in a shooting war with Iran.

North/South Korea –

South Korea Joint Chiefs of Staff - “Prepare for the possibility of a surprise attack by North Korea using Hamas-style tactics”

North Korea news agency says ‘important report’ is imminent. So far this ‘important report’ hasn’t come out.

USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier to enter Busan on Thursday.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

********

Putin at meeting with Iraqi PM says the conflict between Israel and Gaza shows a ‘failure’ in US Middle East policy. And adds: “The damage to the civilian population must be minimized and reduced to zero, and we call on all conflicting parties to do so.”

NUCLEAR THREATS –
The Russian State Duma asks a committee to study the possibility of revoking the ratification of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty within 10 days. More recent reports state that the Russian Foreign Ministry says it is preparing a bill to revoke the ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.

NOTE - This is continuing evidence that Russia may once again begin nuclear testing.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 27 of 36 Russian Shahed drones overnight. Drones targeted areas in the Odessa region.

Bakhmut Axis -
Russian forces are reportedly attempting to push north of Adviivka in an attempt to cut off the town. Very little other information available. This could be the largest push by Russian forces on the front since the Ukraine offensive kicked off.

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to advance in the Andriyivka region, south of Bakhmut.

OUTLOOK -
Much of the reporting out of Ukraine is swamped by reporting on the Israeli/Hamas war. So far it looks like status quo from recent reports.

ISRAEL –

Breaking this topic down into sections for clarity.

For everyone, here is Netanyahu’s address to Israel and the world -

“Israel is at war. We didn’t want this war. It was forced upon us in the most brutal and savage way. But though Israel didn’t start this war, Israel will finish it.”

“Once, the Jewish people were stateless.
Once, the Jewish people were defenseless.
No longer. “

“Hamas will understand that by attacking us, they have made a mistake of historic proportions. We will exact a price that will be remembered by them and Israel’s other enemies for decades to come. “

“The savage attacks that Hamas perpetrated against innocent Israelis are mindboggling: slaughtering families in their homes, massacring hundreds of young people at an outdoor festival, kidnapping scores of women, children and elderly, even Holocaust survivors. “

“Hamas terrorists bound, burned and executed children.
They are savages.
Hamas is ISIS.”

“And just as the forces of civilization united to defeat ISIS, the forces of civilization must support Israel in defeating Hamas.”

“I want to thank President Biden for his unequivocal support.
I want to thank leaders across the world who are standing with Israel today.
I want to thank the people and Congress of the United States of America. “

“In fighting Hamas, Israel is not only fighting for its own people.
It is fighting for every country that stands against barbarism.”

“Israel will win this war, and when Israel wins, the entire civilized world wins.”

Netanyahu has set the parameters for the future of the conflict in Gaza. There is no turning back as Israel finds itself in a growing fight for its very existence.

***
Interesting view -

“The Hamas attack on Israel meant the end of one of Iran’s major paramilitary assets. The Israeli military is one of the best in the world and did not expect Hamas to self-destruct like this, killing as many Israelis as it could before Hamas was gone and their base in Gaza severely damaged. Iran may have ordered this in an effort to disrupt the recent alliance between Israel and the Gulf oil states against Iran. The Hamas attack was a major intelligence failure for Israel and the Arab neighbors realize that this was an Iranian intelligence victory. If Iran could do this again it would most likely be used against one the Arab states that oppose the expansion of Iranian influence in the region. Expending Hamas to accomplish this attack on Israel reminds Arab states that it could happen to them. Iran is a common enemy or threat to Israel, Arabs and Turks.

https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iran/articles/20231010.aspx

GENERAL ——————————-

Counts of dead / wounded on both sides are high. Up to date numbers changing rapidly. Israel’s military found the bodies of roughly 1,500 Hamas militants near Gaza Strip, Israeli army says — AP
The bodies of over 100 Israeli civilians have been discovered in the settlement of Bari to the East of the Gaza Strip. That means at least 1/10 of the residents of Be’eri were killed. Pre-attack population there was a little over 1k people.

Israel has been hammering Gaza with airstrikes the likes of which not seen since 2008. In recent hours, the number of strikes seem to have dropped. Meanwhile, Hamas has been increasingly unable to fire any substantial numbers of rockets, and those they manage to get in the air are fewer and fewer. Additionally, Israeli army spokesman: states “The Israeli army is in full control of the Gaza Strip envelope, there were no infiltrations tonight” At this point, there are no ongoing incidents in the communities surrounding Gaza. However, it cannot be entirely ruled out that there are no terrorists present in the communities around Gaza, along the roads, and in agricultural areas.

Israeli government approves the Defense Minister’s request to recruit 360,000 soldiers from the reserve forces; up until now 300,000 were recruited

IDF are massing 173,000 troops including 8,000 elite commandos, along with 300 tanks and plenty of heavy weaponry on the border with Gaza in the town of Sderot.A further 360,000 reserve troops have been mobilized as well in the event Hezbollah and Iran become involved.

RUMINT. Russia gave Hamas weapons captured in Ukraine to discredit Kyiv.
Russia has transferred Western-made weapons captured in Ukraine to the extremist organization Hamas fighting against Israel, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) reported on Oct. 9.

Representative for Israel’s Homefront Command on Kan recommended Israeli’s store enough food and water in their bomb shelters to last at least 72 hours. They reminded Israeli’s of the essentials, first aid kit, flashlight, batteries, food, water, etc.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Analysts still anticipating ground assault soon, as little as in the next 24 hours. Moon conditions will be at near new moon (there is an annular solar eclipse on Oct 14), allowing Israel to take advantage of its night vision capabilities and advantage. As noted above, reports are that about 173,000 troops have been amassed along the border of Gaza and are awaiting the final “go” to execute the operation.

Israeli Defense Forces: In recent days, the Israeli army has been instructing the population inside of the Gaza Strip to distance themselves from designated areas. We emphasize that there is no official call by Israel for residents of the Gaza Strip to exit into Egypt

Hamas announces they will execute one hostage live on TV for every airstrike on Gaza. Fake videos of executions were posted to social media, but have been debunked. Hamas hasn’t carried out this threat to anyone’s open knowledge. Hamas says it won’t negotiate on the hostages it has taken from Israel until the “end of the battle”. Between 100 and 150 people are being held in Gaza, Israel estimates

Hamas announces that this Friday is a ‘day of general mobilization in the Arab and Islamic world in solidarity with our people and their resistance’.
Hamas also was begging for a cease fire yesterday. In some statements calling for one they claim that they have attained their ‘objectives’ as justification. Sorry FAFO time.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Sources say Palestinian factions in Lebanon are eager to open a second front against Israel if Hezbollah leads the charge. Hezbollah has stated that their red line is Israel putting boots on the ground in Gaza.

Action is increasing on the northern front. Yesterday, numerous infiltrations were attempted into Israel, all were intercepted. Initial attempts were believed to have been conducted by Hamas affiliated terror groups Hezbollah has allowed to operate in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has announced that 9 its members were killed as a result of Israeli bombing in the southern regions of Lebanon and that they will respond to this according to the “Rules of Deterrence.

12 rockets launched from Southern Lebanon with 11 being Intercepted by Iron Dome batteries. The 1 Rocket was deemed to be not a threat and was allowed to land in a open area near the border. Mortars were also fired from positions in southern Lebanon.

The IDF Homefront Command has ordered Israelis to stay away at least 4 km away from the Lebanese borders as a result of the border skirmishes.

The Lebanese Ministry of Education has announced that all schools in the south of the country will be closed tomorrow due to “Deteriorating Security Conditions.”

The Prime Minister of Lebanon stated the need to avoid confrontation on the border with Israel:

“Lebanon is trying to avoid confrontation on the border, so we are trying to prevent an escalation of tension. The support of fraternal Arab states in this matter is important for Beirut.”

Earlier, the acting Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic, Abdullah Bu Habib, told the Asharq al-Awsat newspaper that the Shiite Hezbollah party promised the government that it would not interfere in the conflict between the Palestinian resistance units and Israel.

Unconfirmed but highly probable. Sources close to Hezbollah are reporting that a full-mobilization of forces in Lebanon has been ordered with many said to be moving towards the border with Northern Israel.

NOTE - Hezbollah’s actions indicate they don’t care what the Lebanese PM says and the openly lied to him.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH———————————-

The United Arab Emirates has reportedly warned the Assad government in Syria not to enter the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Abu Dhabi has also warned Damascus not to allow any attacks against Israel from its soil

Pend confirmation. Hezbollah began mobilizing thousands of fighters on the border. Local journalist in Quneitra reports that Hezbollah’s Radwan Brigade is mobilizing along the Syrian border with Israel.

RUMINT. IDF sources say they will destroy Damascus, target Syrian President Assad if Hezbollah joins war; US warships will support Israel in war. Message relayed via France

WEST BANK——————————-

Mahmoud Abbas has flown out of country and calls for a UN intervention to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.

Consecutive and continuous armed clashes at the West Bank checkpoints. Serious clashes between Palestinian youths armed with Molotov cocktails and Israeli police forces in the Palestinian Issawiya neighborhood in East Jerusalem.

Confrontations erupted between young men and Israeli forces during a security operation in the Dheisheh camp in Bethlehem.

GLOBAL ——————————-

The Rafah crossing in southern Gaza, currently the only way out of the blockaded territory, has been operating this morning - but only for those who had their names listed before the recent fighting.

“Shortly after making the announcement that the European Union was going to terminate 700 million euro financing package for Palestine”, it had to halt plan to due to opposition from Luxembourg, Spain, Ireland, and Denmark.

Austria just froze its aid to Palestinians following the invasion on Israel

biden regime refuses to re-freeze the 6 Billion back to Iran.

In a joint statement, the US, France, Germany, Italy, and UK said they will help Israel ‘defend itself’

After Sydney decided to illuminate the Sydney Opera House in the colors of the Israeli flag, hundreds of Hamas supporters gathered to attack the Opera House with flares & burn Israeli flags

Following pro-Hamas demonstrations across the globe, pro-Israel demonstrations are taking their place.

FORECAST ————————-

The IDF has stated that they now consider the Gaza Strip a “War Zone.” This strongly indicates that the ground war will commence very soon, perhaps as short as within 24 hours.

Hezbollah is still expected to enter the conflict once Israel invades Gaza. Reports of mobilization suggests that full commitment may be days after the Israeli invasion, but that won’t stop them from launching massive missile barrages into Israel.

Lebanese govt is not thrilled with the potential involvement - seeing full well on what Israel has done to Gaza via airstrikes. Hezbollah has made its signature the placement of launchers, ammo dumps and other critical sites next to or in schools, hospitals and mosques. Israel has shown no restraint in hitting such targets this time around.

More of a wild card is Hezbollah attacks from Syria. Russia and Syria have kind of turned their heads over the buildup over the years. Attacks from Syria will draw Israeli counter strikes and could potentially catch Syrian and Russian troops in the blast zones.

Overall, I see some hesitancy by Hezbollah in getting involved. They will be forced into it but this doesn’t seem to be the time they desired.

The greatest question mark is Iran, will they become directly involved. That would cause the conflict to explode into a regional war and draw in other world militaries - the US being in the lead. This is the worst case scenario at this stage.

Iran –

See Israel above on the war.

Iraq -

Hadi Al Ameri, Secretary General of the Iran-backed Badr organization in Iraq threatens that if America intervenes in the Israeli/Gazan conflict, they’ll target all American positions [In Iraq].

OBSERVATION - Iranian backed militias would most definitely act against US forces and agents should Iran become actively engaged in the Hamas/Israeli war. Fact is that they will act even if the US DOESN’T intervene - the feast on weakness of the enemy.

Lebanon -

Govt trying to get Hezbollah to stay out of the conflict with Israel.

Saudi Arabia –

Saudi Arabia has informed the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, that it is “ending all negotiations” on normalizing relations with Israel, reports the Israeli newspaper The Jerusalem Post, echoed by the Saudi media outlet The Saudi Post, published in the United States.

OBSERVATION - Some pundits are indicting that this was Iran’s ultimate goal. Israel and SA were close to reaching an agreement sans Palestine. This is now effectively for the moment has been torpedoed.

Syria -

Unidentified warplanes just bombed an Iran-linked military convoy traveling between Iraq and Syria, near the cities of Al-Qa’im (Iraq) and Al-Bukamal (Syria).

OBSERVATION - Most likely Israel, indicating to Iran/Hezbollah that they are not so focused on Gaza that they cannot observe and react to other threats.