Replies

Holy crap, woke up ands things have hit the fan in Israel. Trying to sort thru the feeds to get a better picture of what is happening - but it is not a good start of the day for Israel.

Economy –

New jobs report showing 336,000 new jobs, but when you actually break it down, it’s terrible:

70,000+ are Gov’t jobs

151,000 are part-time

Full time jobs actually went *down* 22,000

OBSERVATION - The Fed only looks at the ‘new’ number, regardless of the internals. This report would suggest that the Fed will view the economy as being stronger than it is an maintain a pro-rate increase posture.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

The Governor of New Mexico has renewed the public health order on gun violence. She updated the order to require the department of public health to host gun buy back programs.

The order still restricts carrying guns in some public places, after she had to scale back the order after a ruling by a judge last month.

OBSERVATION - Talk of her impeachment has only been just that - talk. I suspect that the requirement for buy backs will be challenged as outside her ability as gov to make such an order - in spite of the ‘emergency’.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Out of the 8,000 troops discharged over Biden’s vaccine mandate, only 43 have rejoined. Little surprise here, the military leadership demonstrated ill towards these troops and stabbed them in the back.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –

Pfizer used a separate manufacturing process for its fraudulent COVID-19 trials (the ones it used to get its emergency use authorization pushed through) as the one it ultimately used to manufacture the shots at scale for public use.

Via British Medical Journal :
Recent calls for more transparency in COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials is particularly relevant for data on the manufacturing process, which is an integral part of the regulatory approval process to ensure consistent safety and efficacy outcomes.
An October 2020 amendment to the protocol of the pivotal Pfizer/BioNTech BNT162b2 (Comirnaty) clinical trial (C4591001) indicates that nearly all vaccine doses used in the trial came from ‘clinical batches’ manufactured using what is referred to as ‘Process 1’. However, in order to upscale production for large-scale distribution of ‘emergency supply’ after authorization, a new method was developed, ‘Process 2’. The differences include changes to the DNA template used to transcribe the RNA and the purification phase, as well as the manufacturing process of the lipid nanoparticles. Notably, ‘Process 2’ batches were shown to have substantially lower mRNA integrity.
The protocol amendment states that “each lot of ‘Process 2’-manufactured BNT162b2 would be administered to approximately 250 participants 16 to 55 years of age” with comparative immunogenicity and safety analyses conducted with 250 randomly selected ‘Process 1’ batch recipients. To the best of our knowledge, there is no publicly available report on this comparison of ‘Process 1’ versus ‘Process 2’ doses.
Two documents obtained through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request[6] describe the vaccine batches and lots supplied to each of the trial sites through November 19, 2020[7] and March 17, 2021,[8] respectively. According to these documents, doses from ‘Process 2’ batch EE8493Z are listed at four trial sites prior to November 19, and four other sites are listed with ‘Process 2’ batch EJ0553Z in the updated document. Both batches were also part of the emergency supply for public distribution. The CDC’s Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, known to be underreported. lists 658 reports (169 serious, 2 deaths) for lot EE8493[10] and 491 reports (138 serious, 21 deaths) for lot EJ0553.

https://www.bmj.com/content/378/bmj.o1731/rr-2

OBSERVATION - More fodder for the upcoming legal battles and lawsuits against Pfizer et al for fraudulent safety reporting and practices.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Knives are coming out for Rep Jordan as he gains traction to be the next Speaker of the House.

Biden / Harris Watch –

biden couldn’t get through a recent press conference with out totally losing track of what he was saying or where he was.

Illegal Immigration –

President Joe Biden’s deputies are offering multiple concessions to Mexican President Andres Manuel López Obrador in the hope that he will conceal the huge and unpopular flow of illegal migrants during the 2024 campaign season.

On Thursday, three of Biden’s cabinet secretaries met with Obrador. He has the power to embarrass Biden during the 2024 campaign with massive, televised eruptions of migrants — such as the September 2021 rush of 15,000 Haitians at Del Rio, Texas.

“The government of Mexico views their control over immigration as a bargaining chip in any conversation they have with the United States,” Jon Feere, a top enforcement official in President Donald Trump’s government, said.

OBSERVATION - The US can no longer act from a position of strength. Mexico’s marxist leaning govt is reveling in its new found strength. All the NGOs that have swarmed into the country to facilitate the movement of the illegals have taken a lot of the pressure off Mexico and now it can look to demand big concessions from the US, while pocketing cash from these NGOs.

North/South Korea –

NK reportedly has started supplying artillery rounds to Russia.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023

Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.

Ukranian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.

Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.

Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.

********

Logistics –
CBS News is reporting that North Korea has started supplying Russia with artillery for the war against Ukraine. The North Korean support for Moscow appears to be the culmination of the rare summit last month in Moscow, when Kim Jong Un traveled by train to meet Putin in person.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 70s with chances of rain showers for the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Much of the information feeds I monitor are swamped with the Hamas/Israeli war, so current Ukraine war activity is buried. Russia did launch a signifiant attack against Odesa and Chornomorsk cities of Odesa region, possible missile strikes with Onyx missiles overnight, targeting port facilities.

Tokmak Axis -.
Ukrainian Defense Forces have advanced north to Kopani and near Novoprokopivka, widening the salient towards the west.

Russian Territory –
Ukrainian drones targeted the Moscow and Kursk regions

Partisan Resistance ——
A vehicle of secretary of “United Russia” party was blown up in occupied Nova Kakhovka, occupied Kherson Oblast.

OUTLOOK –
Israel has sucked the air out of OSINT reporting on Ukraine. That said, very little has changed and the projections remain the same. Ukraine will continue to make gains in the Bakhmut and Tokmok fronts while both Russia and Ukraine continue their ‘deep war’ of battlefield preparation for their next stages of the fight.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Moldova’s president Maia Sandu says Russia’s Wagner paramilitaries were behind a thwarted coup attempt that aimed to depose her as head of state as part of a campaign to destabilize the country.

Middle East / N. Africa General -

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Iran issue statements blaming Israel for the attack it suffered today by Palestinian terror groups.

Israel –

* THE REGION IS ON THE PRECIPICE OF A POTENTIAL MAJOR REGIONAL WAR.

* Israel has declared a STATE OF WAR for the first time since 1973.

* If Israel invades Gaza, Hezbollah has threatened to attack Israel

* Dozens of Israeli civilians - mostly women - have been taken captive and transported to Gaza - presumably as hostages (and sex slaves).

50 yrs ago, Egypt and Syria launched the Yom Kippur War, with a surprise attack on Israel on the October 6th, 1973. Hamas chose this to effect a repeat.

Hamas in coordination with other terror factions in Gaza, launched a massive surprise attack on the anniversary and on a Shabbat morning as well. So far Hamas has reportedly launched over 5,000 missiles into Israel, locally overwhelming Iron Dome defense. The amount of continuous rocket fire from Gaza at this moment has not been witnessed since 2021.

At the same time, Hamas breached the defensive wall via infiltration by land, sea and air (paraglider) and ground forces poured into border cities, taking control of at least 7. The images of bodies of the murdered civilians are lying on the streets in Israel are being published on social media. Battles are currently taking place in 7 settlements. Some Telegram channels claim that Hamas is holding around 50 hostages in Gaza who were abducted from Israel.

Hezbollah have released a statement saying they are in close contact with the leaders of factions in Gaza and abroad and are monitoring the situation and warn Israel to choose wisely based on the operation. Analysts warn Hezbollah could be encouraged by Hamas’ success and attack from the north.

Mahmoud Abbas issues his first statement:

“We have the right to defend ourselves against Israel and settler terrorism”

Reports of mosques urging Muslim faithful throughout Israel to take to the streets and attack Jews.

An interim statement from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared. He addressed the nation, declaring that this was not an operation, not an attack, but a full-fledged war in which Israel would win. Netanyahu will address the nation at 1 pm local time.

The Israeli army has gone on full war status and at least 10,000 reservists are on call up as well. IAF has commenced some of the most massive bombardments in years. They have not used the ‘knock’ technique commonly used before hitting a multi use facility but going straight ahead with the big bombs.

OBSERVATION - This appears to be a well coordinated effort by Hamas and other Palestinian groups. This also appears to be an Israeli intelligence failure of immense magnitude. It is almost certain that Israel will launch a ground invasion of Gaza - the extent of which is unknown. In the last major conflict in 2021 Israel was poised to strike on the ground but was called off when Hamas ceased its rocket attacks.

This attack by Hamas et al is designed to inflict mass casualties on Israeli citizens. Israel will not stand for that.

Statements by Hezbollah and Abbas threaten expansion of the fighting. This multi front scenario would be a worse case scenario, but one that Israel has been incorporating into its planning for many year now. Should Hezbollah get directly involved, their missiles, along with Hamas missiles would inflict severe damage to Israel as its Iron Dome system would be seriously overwhelmed. Israeli response would be equally severe and a ground war in the north a high likelihood. With that, Iran and Hezbollah may seize the opportunity to launch attacks from its bases in Syria, expanding the fight in that direction as well. Iran may even feel froggy enough to launch ballistic missiles from Iran proper.

Right now one can only hope and pray that such an expansion of the present war doesn’t happen. Its going to be ugly enough as it is as it appears that both sides have taken the gloves off. Even uglier as Hamas parades its hostages around and even kills them to inflict even more terror on Israel.

Let us also not forget that biden opened the cash flood gates and pumped billions into Gaza and the west bank, bankrolling this current attack by Hamas. Oh and don’t forget biden has pumped something like $12 - $14 BILLION back into Iranian coffers. This is another foreign policy blunder by biden that is going to cost a lot of lives.

LATEST -
The Israeli Defense Force appears to be in the process of mobilizing near the border with Syria and the Golan Heights with Defense Channels stating that residents should not be alarmed by the sounds of explosions and gunfire as well as the movement of heavy military equipment through the streets.

Unconfirmed reports that Egyptian parliamentarians informed Israel that in the event of a ground operation in the Gaza Strip, “Hezbollah” will enter the war.

Hamas using drone-bomb dropping tactics used by Russia in Ukraine.

High-ranking Israeli officer, Nimrod Aloni, former Commanding Officer of the Gaza Division, has been captured by Hamas

Situation is very unclear at the moment. The following map depicts based on some early reporting

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F71AJViWAAEqCnq?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Armories across Israel have opened up to allow citizens to get access to their weapons and ammo.

Iran –

See Israel on their support for Hamas.

Lebanon -

Lebanon would face the brunt from any Hezbollah interjection into the current fight between Israel and Hamas. Locals have become increasingly dissatisfied with Hezbollah rule and this may open it up for greater targeting by Israel.

Saudi Arabia –

The Saudi Foreign Ministry called on Saturday for an immediate end to the acts of violence between Israel and the Palestinians.

OBSERVATION - SA is (was?) close to an agreement with Israel that excluded most of the Palestinian claims. Hamas is backed by Iran, SAs arch enemy, so a secondary result of this war would be to disrupt any peace agreement between SA and Israel. Hezbollah has said as much in its statement released overnigh - the statement added that it was a “decisive response to Israel’s continued occupation and a message to those seeking normalization with Israel.”

Syria -

Syria and Russia continue to hammer the Idlib region with artillery and bombs at levels not seen in over a year.

***
Syria is a developing base for Hezbollah / Iranian personnel and assets for a potential fight against Israel.

Mexico -

See “Illegal Immigration” above.

Black Swans

According to research published on September 27 in the journal Science Advances, Seattle is at a higher risk from earthquakes than previously estimated. This is due to what are called multi-fault earthquakes. These quakes activate across two or more faults, creating a quake larger than if just one of the faults ruptured. Though thought to be rare, in modern times such events are becoming increasingly better documented.

So, is Seattle prepared? An estimate in 2005 found that even a magnitude 6.7 earthquake along the Seattle fault today could cause 1,600 deaths and destroy roughly 10,000 buildings, resulting in a total economic loss of approximately $50 billion. A single linked earthquake across the Seattle and Saddle Mountains faults would release roughly 38 times more energy than that.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/earthquake-threat-to-major-us-city-likely-underestimated-scientists-say/ar-AA1hmblK?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ede7ea47925c45a0866cb288966e4851&ei=150

OBSERVATION - Know the potential threats where you live. Some of us live in earthquake zones not a widely spoken of as the San Andreas, but equally as dangerous. Others in tornado and / or hurricane zones, etc. Our country may be falling apart at the seams politically, but natural disasters currently pose a very serious threat - especially under this regime and its unwillingness to respond.