Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

With the midterms hitting this Tuesday, there are a lot of things that can happen to cause chaos. Those actions most likely will come without warning. Keep alert is the best measure.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The UN’s annual climate change summit has opened with hosts Egypt billing it as the world’s “watershed moment” on climate action.
More than 120 world leaders are heading to the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.

About 30,000 people will attend the two-week summit, known as COP27
The summit will open with welcome speeches from the UN’s new climate change chief, Simon Stiell, and Egyptian Foreign Affairs Minister and COP27 President-Designate Sameh Shoukry.

Developing nations are demanding that previous commitments to finance are upheld. But they also want there to be discussion on “loss and damage” finance - money to help them cope with the losses they are already facing from climate change rather than just to prepare for future impacts. This would be the first time the issue has been put on the formal agenda of a COP summit.

Germany’s president expressed skepticism that progress could be made at the summit. UN chief Antonio Guterres warned that “we will be doomed” if a deal between rich and poor countries isn’t reached.

Guterres told Britain’s Guardian newspaper that wealthier countries must reach a “historic pact” with developing countries at the COP27 summit to minimize the effects of climate change.

“There is no way we can avoid a catastrophic situation, if [developed and developing countries] are not able to establish a historic pact,” Guterres told the newspaper. “Because, at the present level, we will be doomed.”
Guterres noted that developed countries are responsible for most emissions, while developing countries are likely to bear the brunt of the impact of climate change. He added that present climate policies “will be absolutely catastrophic.”

OBSERVATION - the so called ‘elites’ showing up for COP27 show their distain for the common folk in just about everything they do. They will be relying on climate models that are grossly flawed and don’t even match actual historical data. Here is an educational link for some of this

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/11/05/how-ipccs-1990-predictions-expensively-failed/

Meanwhile, they’ll demand more changes and the developing countries will demand more MONEY for the so called effects they are facing from ‘climate change’. This is all just a socialist money leveling operation as these ‘developing’ countries are largely lead by socialists.

One other note – the GGR crowd is once again resurrecting the call for a global climate ‘emergency’ along the same tyrannical lines of the recent wuhan virus plandemic. Such a declaration could allow subservient countries to force changes. However, the countries that are the most likely to follow along – those in Europe -are facing the harsh realities of energy poverty brought by ‘green’ energy and are pushing fossil fuels to get through the winter. At this stage, significant retrograde of fossil fuel based energy is unlikely for this region.

Here in the US OTOH, biden’s recent claim that he’ll shut down the coal ‘plants’ infers that he could act before the end of his term and the only way would be through some sort of emergency declaration as the incoming republican controlled congress wont likely accept such actions.

Wuhan virus –

In a FDA report looking at targeting data for children aged 5 to 17 between 2021 and mid-2022, the preprint study found that myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation, and the related condition pericarditis met the threshold for a safety signal for children aged 12 to 17 after the second and third doses of the mRNA vaccine.

A safety signal isn’t proof that a vaccine caused an adverse event. The purpose is to prompt investigation of the cause and determine whether or not the risks of a vaccine outweigh the benefits. (NOTE – ‘targeting data’ and ‘safety signal’ refer in part to the VAERS adverse reaction record).

The CDC has acknowledged myocarditis as a vaccine side effect but insists it’s rare. In August 2021, the CDC reported 42.6 cases of myocarditis or pericarditis per million males ages 12-15 after vaccination. However, in September, the CDC’s analysis of its own Vaccine Safety Datalink surveillance data showed the incidence of myocarditis after vaccination was three to five times higher for young men than what the agency was reporting in 2021. The first prospective cohort study on the subject – by researchers in Thailand looking at 301 teens 13-18 – estimated an astonishing 23,000 cases per million.

Last month, a Swiss study found elevated levels of the protein troponin in all of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine recipients it analyzed, indicating the shots are routinely causing heart injury. Further, up to 1 in 27 of the vaccinated people in the study showed levels associated with subclinical myocarditis.
Denmark and Norway have recommended that people under 50 and under 65, respectively, not get a booster shot. And Sweden is no longer recommending them for ages 12 to 17.

INTERIM OBSERVATION - It was considered “misinformation” and “dangerous fearmongering” less than a year ago to say the wuhan “vaccines” could cause myocarditis, heart attacks, or other deadly ailments. Today, what was once called “misinformation” has been confirmed as 100% accurate by the FDA, CDC, and WHO, albeit quietly.

CONTINUING - This is why the claim that many have made since around March, 2021, that wuhan “vaccines” hamper natural responses to diseases and cause recipients to become immunocompromised, is not surprisingly being proven accurate today. Sadly, the evidence is being drowned out by suppression, censorship, and gaslighting from Big Pharma puppets in government and media who aren’t concerned about who they’re harming as long as they keep getting paid.

Hospitals around the U.S. are suddenly struggling to keep up with surging rates of respiratory infections among children, such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), COVID, rhinoviruses and influenza. Censored scientists and doctors have long warned that the mRNA COVID jabs are destroying people’s immune systems, and that we’re going to see an avalanche of infections as immune system failure sets in

In June 2022, Stephanie Seneff, Ph.D., Dr. Greg Nigh, Dr. Anthony Kyriakopoulos and Dr. Peter McCullough published a paper10 in Food and Chemical Toxicology, reviewing the mechanisms by which the shots suppress immune function and trigger disease. As noted in the abstract:
“The utilization of mRNA vaccines in the context of infectious disease has no precedent. The many alterations in the vaccine mRNA hide the mRNA from cellular defenses and promote a longer biological half-life and high production of spike protein. However, the immune response to the vaccine is very different from that to a SARS-CoV-2 infection.
In this paper, we present evidence that vaccination induces a profound impairment in type I interferon signaling, which has diverse adverse consequences to human health.
Immune cells that have taken up the vaccine nanoparticles release into circulation large numbers of exosomes containing spike protein along with critical microRNAs that induce a signaling response in recipient cells at distant sites.
We also identify potential profound disturbances in regulatory control of protein synthesis and cancer surveillance. These disturbances potentially have a causal link to neurodegenerative disease, myocarditis, immune thrombocytopenia, Bell’s palsy, liver disease, impaired adaptive immunity, impaired DNA damage response and tumorigenesis.”

OBSERVATION - This information was out there for a LONG time and the CDC et al buried it as ‘misinformation’. This is why there should be no amnesty for the covidians. They damaged and killed too many in defense of their ‘narrative’ and the effort to prolong the pandemic emergency.

Economy –

Biden said Friday that coal plants are too expensive to operate, and “we’re going to be shutting these plants down all across America” in order to shift to wind power in a comment that drew criticism from the Republican National Committee.

“I was in Massachusetts about a month ago on the site of the largest old coal plant in America,” Biden said at an event in Carlsbad, California, on Friday. “Guess what? It cost them too much money. They can’t count. No one is building new coal plants because they can’t rely on it. Even if they have all the coal guaranteed for the rest of the existence of the plant.
“So it’s going to become a wind generation. And all they’re doing is it’s going to save them a hell of a lot of money and using the same transmission line that they transmitted the coal-fired electric on, we’re going to be shutting these plants down all across America and having wind and solar power, also providing tax credits to help families buy energy efficient appliances, whether it’s your refrigerator or your coffee maker, for solar panels on your home, weatherize your home, things that save an average, experts say, a minimum of $500 a year for the average family.”

OBSERVATION – Our economy relies on dependable energy and the left/biden desire energy poverty for all. If biden shuts down all coal (and his context suggests over a short period of time), it would literally take decades to build enough solar and wind to even begin to pick up the difference. History has shown it is completely unreliable. No amount of wind and solar can reliably supply the USA during adverse winter weather.

Solar power doesn’t work at night, or in winter – Northern states especially simply don’t receive enough sunlight (and snow cover doesn’t help either).
Wind alone cannot carry the USA’s energy needs during long periods when solar is unavailable. Wind simply isn’t a reliable source of energy.
Consider the Texas ice storm in February 2021. Solar dropped to almost nothing for over 10 days, and wind wasn’t available for significant periods. Consider also the Kalifornia heat wave of a couple years ago, wind shut down and the state baked in record temperatures with no other power available to spin up. Electric car users were begged NOT to charge their cars.
Final note – coal/gas plants are far, far cheaper per megawatt than wind or solar and have a much longer life cycle. Coal plants operate for over 40 years now. Wind plants have to be replaced about every 12 years or so.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden announced he will shut down coal plants all across America (see Economy above). The statement put the WH into a tizzy trying to spin the statement. One response was that Biden ‘regrets’ comments about shutting down coal plants. KJP claimed biden’s words were “twisted”

OBSERVATION – WH staffers must be able to get more than their minimal numbers of steps in by walking back biden’s gaffs on a daily basis.
SEE ALSO Economy above

CW2/Domestic violence –

I’m not seeing any calls by the left or right for violence this Tuesday. The left (Antifa et al) may try to activate post election as they did after Trump’s election to ‘punish’ the people for the red wave. If you live in a blue city/region keep your head on a swivel and monitory local news for any ‘protests’ and avoid. The left is still trying to get the right provoked into a response that the govt can us to crack down any opposition to the regime’s goals.

Cyber Warfare –

Cybersecurity units from the National Guard will be activated in 14 U.S. states to help counter any threats to election officials’ networks ahead of, during, and after the upcoming Nov. 8 midterm elections, according to reports.
The 14 include battleground states Arizona, Iowa, and Pennsylvania, as well as Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Mexico, New York, Washington, and West Virginia, reported Politico.

CISA Director Jen Easterly has repeatedly said she doesn’t expect any major disruptions to the midterms. Most recently, on Nov. 1, at an event hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Easterly said that there is “no information credible or specific about efforts to disrupt or compromise” election infrastructure and that she was “very confident that we have done everything we can to make election infrastructure as secure and as resilient as possible.”
Air Force Maj. Gen. Rich Neely, head of the Illinois National Guard, said that he and his team are “not expecting to see anything.”

North/South Korea –

Things have quieted down since last weeks blow up. However, it can start up again on a very short notice.

Japan –

Taiwan is not the only country in the region facing incursions of territorial waters by Chinese and Russian vessels.
A People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) survey ship vessel entered Japan’s territorial waters near islands south of Kyushu this week, according to the Japanese Ministry of Defense.

The Shupang-class survey ship was sighted sailing northeast through Japan’s contiguous zone west of Gaja Island and entered Japan’s territorial waters southwest of Kuchinoerabu Island at 12:10 a.m. local time on Wednesday. The ship departed Japan’s territorial waters after three hours of operating near Yakushima Island and sailed southeast. According to Japanese officials, the transit was the fourth intrusion of a foreign warship this year, marking a record high.

On Monday, the Japanese MoD issued a statement that said on Oct. 28, a Russian Navy Balzam-class surveillance ship was sighted sailing west in an area 160 kilometers west of Cape Ryupi, Aomori Prefecture, Honshu. An image and hull number provided in the release identified the ship as Pribaltica (80), which is part of the Russian Navy Pacific Fleet.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russia appears to be focusing more on a missile campaign targeting electrical infrastructure to stress Ukraine as winter approaches.

Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.

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NUKE WATCH -
China has warned Russia against threatening to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, in a rare departure from its usual tacit support for Moscow’s positions.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting slowed around Bakhmut yesterday, returning more to trench fighting. Both sides in many regions are digging in or fortifying defensive positions for winter. Russian shelling was intensive around Bakhmut, whilst Ukrainian shelling of Russian forces was intensive around Svatove and Kherson. In most other impacted regions there were some sporadic intensive phases, but shelling was mostly sporadic.

Evidence of the construction of Russian defenses east of the Dnipir River were revealed – see below.

Russian air/missile and drone strikes continued yesterday and overnight but were limited.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Scattered Russian artillery fire.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to advance towards encircling Svatove. Ukraine has most of the key Russian supply lines within artillery range and SOF and partisans actively feed target data for interdiction.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russia conducted 2 missile strikes at Zaporizhzhia overnight. More Bakhmut attacks repulsed.

Crimean front ———
Ukrainian and Russian sources did not report significant changes in the situation on the southern front on November 5th.

Battle for Kherson could get ugly as a local in Kherson tells BBC that many Russian soldiers in the city wear civilian clothes. (That is a war crime under the Geneva Conventions).

Better weather and more intel has permitted better analysis of the Russian defenses southeast of Kherson. The Russians are currently building three lines of trenches and bunkers on the right side of the Dnieper. These defensive positions use natural and artificial barriers such as the Dnieper River and the numerous canals in the Kherson region. Below is a link to a map that shows the approximate alignment of these defensive lines -

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fgz2LnSXgAALNiy?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

These defensive lines consist of trenches supported by buried positions for armored fighting vehicles. In places where it is difficult to dig trenches, Russia has deployed prefabricated “bunkers”

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
Big fire in Grayvoron district of Belgorod region after reported shelling

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

There was a reported attempt to assassinate high-profile Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Supreme Court Judge Aleksandr Nikulin.

OUTLOOK ——
Winter setting in is altering the fight. Until the ground freezes, off road maneuverability will be hampered by the fall mud.

I see no real changes in the tactical situation as it has been progressing for the past week or so. Slow gains by Ukraine and Russia throwing itself into the Bakhmut meat grinder.

Monitoring the Nov 7th date given by the Russian occupation forces in Kherson to see what may happen then or shortly thereafter.

Revelation of the extensive defenses on the east side of the Dnipir River show how important protecting Crimea from the Kherson axis is. What Russia has to fear is the potential for an offensive coming south out of the Zaporizhzhia region. Creation of such a fixed defensive line versus a mobile army did not work well in WW2.

Russian milbloggers worried for months of a third front in the Zaporizhzhia region. This assault would permit Ukraine forces to move south on the eastern side of the Dnipir River, flanking the fixed defensive network. Such a strike would also threaten to split the Russian forces in half, limiting their ability to support across the region.

Russia could be forced onto the horns of a trilemma. Keep forces in the Kherson line, put forces into the east and/or forces against a thrust from Zaporizhzhia. They have been barely capable of handling two fronts – a third would be very difficult to sustain.

Ukraine, with interior lines of logistics, could leave a holding force in Kherson and move units to the Zaporizhzhia region. It has already been targeting Russian logistics, command posts and troop concentrations in the region, so some of the shaping of the battlefield has commenced. This region relied heavily on the Kerch Bridge for supplies from Russia and is feeling the shortages as material is diverted to the west and east.

If Ukraine follows this tactic, they could be ready to go as soon as the end of the year, as analysts suggest that they will have secured Kherson and the west bank of the Dnipir River by then.

Belarus -

Monitoring activity which seems to be basic military training in established areas of central and western Belarus. No evidence of potential attacks into Ukraine.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

Serbs in Kosovo have withdrawn from all political institutions including the, assembly, the government, the judiciary, the police and the administrative staff in the four municipalities in the north. All Serbian MPs are submitting their resignation to the Kosovo Parliament.

OBSERVATION – This is all about Kosovo having license plate rules for Serbs living in Kosovo as Kosovans face living in Serbia. Essentially this is a power play by Serbs who want their own entity within Kosovo which Kosovo govt said no. Serbia has rattled the saber a lot on this issue lately. Kosovo currently has a NATO peace keeping force in place and any Serbian attack will trigger an Article 5 response. Such Serbian aggression may be linked to their alliance with Russia and they may get froggy in order to tie NATO down from their support of Ukraine. Such actions would become very nasty fast as Serbia would essentially be on their own – with no Russian support (other than cheering them on) as Russia is too tied down in Ukraine.

Pakistan -

Civil unrest continues following the assassination attempt on Khan.

Iran -

Iran regime is forbidding trading foreign currencies and especially USA Dollar in all platforms from today, after the shock of falling rates of Iranian Rial against the dollar.

Iranian human rights activists report that 318 people have already been killed during the Iran protests, including 49 children. The protests, which has taken place in 136 towns and 134 universities, have resulted in around 14,800 protestors having so far been detained.

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

The U.S. government gave $1.1 billion in U.S. tax dollars to Taliban-controlled Afghanistan in humanitarian aid since the U.S. withdrawal in August 2021 — and a top federal watchdog says several U.S. agencies are refusing to explain how the money was spent.

In SIGAR’s quarterly report to Congress the Inspector General explains that they are unable to track down how more than $1 billion taxpayer dollars was spent because multiple government agencies are refusing to cooperate.
Inspector General John F. Sopko says, “SIGAR, for the first time in its history, is unable this quarter to provide Congress and the American people with a full accounting of this U.S. government spending due to the noncooperation of several U.S. government agencies.” Sopko adds that both United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which administers the majority of U.S. government spending for Afghanistan, and the Treasury Department “refused to cooperate with SIGAR in any capacity.”
OBSERVATION – Said it before, say it again. The biden regime operates as a lawless entity, being law unto themselves.

Mexico -

Haven’t commented in this region lately. There is a lot of cartel – govt fighting on top of intercartel fights. The country is not a very safe area. As noted under ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION a few days ago, this violence between cartels is spilling northward over the border.

I hate time change. It has served its purpose and now needs to be retired.

Gird your loins – tomorrow is election day and today is the last blast of political ads. Get out there and vote like your life depends on it.

Globalism / Great Reset –

COP27 is on going, with hundreds of jets spewing carbon whisking their participants to this summit.

The Dutch minister of Finance, who also happens to be the co-chair of the Global Action Group at the WEF, is now looking to introduce a law to monitor ALL transactions over €100.

In his speech, UN Secretary General António Guterres warned that the world’s “on a highway to climate hell” - blaming growing greenhouse gas emissions and rising global temperatures. “The clock is ticking,” he told the audience. “We are in the fight of our lives and we are losing.”

OBSERVATION - Gloom and doom along with further maneuvering to impose GGR/WEF goals. The big one is wealth distribution – watch that drum get beat over and over this week. That and the impending destruction of the planet due to global warming.

Wuhan virus –

NOTING THIS HERE CDC and the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) outlined plans aimed at a spike in respiratory diseases that are not COVID-19. National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases Director Jose Romero stated that they are seeing the highest influenza hospitalization rates going back a decade.

OBSERVATION – Many studies and experts are now up front saying that one of the biggest negative effects of the wuhan lockdowns has been the effect that those lockdowns have had on the natural immune functions of the body – not to mention the direct effects to derail natural immunity from the jab itself.

Economy –

Big layoffs coming to Meta, in the 1000’s. This comes on the heels of a terribly, bad performance of stock having lost over 70% of it’s value this year.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index for October is scheduled for release Thursday morning. A lagging indicator, the CPI is not expected to reflect the latest interest rate hike from the Fed earlier this month. Year-over-year inflation expectations are at 7.9%, following last month’s YoY data of 8.2%. Monthly inflation is expected to increase by 0.6%. (FO)

Things are still tense concerning a potential nation wide rail road strike. Department of Labor Secretary Marty Walsh stated that he’s in communication with rail unions and companies daily after two unions voted to reject a deal backed by the Biden administration. Walsh stated that he is very active in talks with the unions, especially the two which voted to reject the deal.

Diesel crisis grows - Truckers in North Carolina are reporting areas of that state, that is without diesel fuel! Similar videos have come out of Oklahoma within the past three days as well. Fuel Distributors in Tennessee announced they had begun LIMITING purchases of diesel fuel in that state, too.

On October 26, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem issued an executive order providing truckers hauling liquid fuel products with relief from Hours of Service rules due to “extremely low inventories and outages of certain liquid products including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, propane, ethyl alcohol, natural gasoline, diesel exhaust fluid, and and anhydrous ammonia”

Nebraska Governor Pete Ricketts issued a similar emergency declaration on November 1 providing relief from Hours of Service requirements for drivers hauling gasoline or gasoline blends, diesel, fuel oil, ethanol, propane, and biodiesel.
The order was issued because “several multiple states including Nebraska are experiencing fuel shortages due to high demand for petroleum products.”

OBSERVATION – Refineries are working hard to produce diesel as well as fuel oil (also at rationing levels). Pray there are no events that take them off line.

Biden / Harris watch –

Joe Biden said during an event in New York Sunday there would be ‘no more drilling’ in the U.S. one day after Joe Manchin blasted him for vowing to close coal plants - while the president nearly took a spill on stage.
The president could be heard at one point telling someone in the crowd ‘No more drilling. There is no more drilling. I haven’t formed any new drilling. No.’ And almost falls off platform

OBSERVATION – So now we have biden on record once again saying HIS administration is going to close down coal plants and stop all new drilling. Sounds like a policy statement to me that is totally tone deaf to what really needs to happen in this country.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Republican Arizona Governor candidate Kari Lake’s campaign offices were shut down Saturday night after staff received suspicious white power. FBI/Law enforcement was at the offices in Phoenix from 10pm to 5am after Lake’s team was sent two envelopes with the substance and abusive messages. Her campaign believes this was a ‘terroristic attack, trying to intimidate Kari and the campaign staff’.

A staffer is currently under medical supervision and the headquarters have been shut down for the remainder of the campaign.

OBSERVATION – The MSM will under report (if at all) this event since it is just another (potentially) violent attack by leftists against republicans/conservatives.

Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee recently released report claims to outline the politicization of the FBI and the DOJ. The report based on whistleblower testimony states that the FBI is manipulating domestic violent extremism statistics for political purposes, giving preferential treatment to Hunter Biden, terminating employees for their political views, abusing investigative and counterterrorism authorities for political purposes, and choosing not to investigate attacks against pro-life facilities and churches.

OBSERVATION – Weaponization of the DoJ/FBI against the American people, just like the KGB and Stazi of the Soviet era. Only a severe, house cleaning of upper level management can cure this and the Congress alone only has limited power to do so. But it should use its impeachment authority liberally to eliminate those in the DoJ/FBI responsible for this attack on the citizen and Constitution.

Rose City Antifa members have posted these stickers all around Portland, Ore. declaring they are the new police force. Antifa believe in extrajudicial detainment, questioning & killings

OBSERVATION – This is a step towards creating an alternative ‘government’ structure that an insurgency takes. Portland is undoubtedly the strongest of the Antifa strongholds and where this would be expected to appear at the earliest. Similar moves are in their infancy in other BLM/Antifa stronghold cities.

There is no spectrum on the Republican side, says Elizabeth Warren. Talking to the radical MoveOn group that if you are a Republican you are an insurrectionist and will “take away democracy.”
She says running for office or “taking money” from the Republican party means you are “bought in” using “hate” and “lies” to “control the American people.”

OBSERVATION - SMH, more rhetoric designed to demonize the right. That demonization has already resulted in some lefty violence.

POLITICAL FRONT –

More strangeness observations on the Pelosi incident, Mike Huckabee notes –

“David Depape, the man who has confessed to law enforcement that he entered the home of Paul and Nancy Pelosi and assaulted Paul with a hammer, is “a homeless, mentally ill drug addict with a fondness for BLM,” as Tucker Carlson quipped accurately Monday night. That description applies to a lot of folks in San Francisco, but he’s also an illegal alien, A Canadian who has long overstayed his visa. So, for a more complete description, David Depapae is “a mentally ill, drug addicted illegal alien nudist who takes hallucinogens and lives in a hippie school bus in Berkeley with a BLM banner and a pride flag out front.”
But earlier on Monday, San Francisco DA Brooke Jenkins gave a press conference in which she stated flatly that they believe Depape’s crime to be “politically motivated” –- and this being San Francisco, one may safely assume which politics she means. “(Huckabee)

China –

46 PLA aircraft and 4 PLAN vessels pushed into Taiwan defense zone on Nov. 6th. Aircraft wise, this is one of the highest counts in a while, though not all at once.

Following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s call for its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to “fully enhance training and preparation for war,” senior military officers stated that PLA forces are on full alert.

OBSERVATION – Many view Xi’s speech at the CCP congress to be a warning order for the PLA to execute the reunification of Taiwan. The most conducive weather for military operations in the Taiwan Straits is now through December. However, such an short fuse operation will leave a big intelligence footprint to execute within a month’s time. If anything, they have the capabilities now to execute a blockade of the Island. Military invasion takes a lot more work, even though China has been planning and practicing for a number of years now.

China’s H-6K Hun strategic bomber was spotted carrying a new hypersonic air-launched missile late last week. China’s new air-launched CM-401s closely resemble Russia’s Kinzhal, essentially a modified surface to surface missile mounted to an airframe.

Japan –

Japan’s Prime Minister has warned the pacifist country needs to step up its military force amid an increasingly ‘severe’ situation in the region, after North Korea’s latest provocation this week saw it fire a missile near the island nation in a record year for launches.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

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NUKE WATCH -
Russian leader Vladimir Putin has alarmed Western leaders by referencing the nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in a conversation with French president Emmanuel Macron, diplomatic sources have said.
According to the sources, Putin expressed the view that the bombings – which triggered the Japanese surrender and the end of the Second World War – demonstrated that ‘you don’t need to attack the major cities in order to win’.
A source said: ‘Macron was distinctly alarmed. It sounded like a very heavy hint that Putin might detonate a tactical nuclear weapon in the east of Ukraine, while leaving Kyiv intact. That appeared to be the thrust of his remarks.’

OBSERVATION – Couldn’t find the date for this phonecon, but had to have been within the past month when Kremlin rhetoric was flowing. The crux of putin’s statement is that the US didn’t nuke Tokyo, but another city(s) – this implied threat combined with the curious Russian pullback from Kherson and losses in the east left a lot of secondary cities as potential targets.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Now into the 9th month of the war, some have done a quick check on the progress. It appears that Ukraine has liberated 50% of the territory Russia occupied after the start of hostilities on Feb 24th.

The heaviest fighting yesterday was around Bakhmut again with some more activity east of Soledar too. A fight around Pavlivka is building and as in most other locations, the Russians are losing – badly.

Russian shelling was intensive again around Bakhmut yesterday and north of Donetsk. Two explosions were reported in occupied Donetsk overnight, with some reports Russian military resupplies arriving by railway were targeted. Possible partisan sabotage, but unclear as yet.

Russian shelling, except as further noted below was mostly more sporadic.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Russian shelling has increased again across the Sumy region overnight.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Significant battle in the vicinity of Makiivka (southwest of Svatove) where the Russian forces had occupied a salient. The Russian news outlet Verstka reported yesterday that hundreds of mobilized Russian soldiers have died in that area. TV Rain has independently corroborated it, reporting that officers told the men “You are meat, that’s why you were brought here.”

The Russian Defence Ministry’s official briefs for 30 and 31 October provide almost identical text stating that “the enemy attempted to conduct offensives” in the direction of Makiivka, but “all attacks were repelled”.
From 1 to 3 November, the Ministry of Defence reports that attempts by the Ukrainian armed forces to attack near Makiivka were foiled and the enemy “as a result of active action by Russian troops and artillery” were pushed back “to their initial positions”.
The report for 4, 5 and 6 November no longer mentions Makiivka.

Dominated by high ground to the west, Ukranian artillery swept this terrain, inflicting serious losses. Counter-attacking, Ukranian infantry drove RU units back as much as 6 Km. Russian sources are reporting that at least a battalion’s worth of Russians (may be more) of recent, mobilized conscripts were killed in the battle.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russia continues to enter the meat grinder around Bahkmut.

One significant fight that has been building lately has been further to the west around the town of Pavlivka with reports of heavy Russian losses. Ukrainian air activity was reported in this region yesterday with reports of strikes on Russian forces.

It has been one of many smaller scale attacks the Russians have been making, but has apparently grown in intensity since the destruction of the Kerch Bridge. Most recently, Russia has been observed pushing loads of vehicles north from Mariupol, presumably toward Pavlivka where they are apparently suffering pretty huge casualties. Intercepted/monitored communications from Russian soldiers in the Pavlivka area tell of devastating losses and near nonexistent Russian morale.

To some analysts – and I tend to agree based on the evidence, the reason Russians are trying so hard in the Pavlivka area might be the damage on the Kerch bridge. If they can successfully push Ukrainian forces far enough away, they might be able to create buffer and establish a Melitopol <-> Donetsk railway connection. Currently, that rail line is well within Ukranian artillery range and would draw heavy fire if/when it started to run substantial rail traffic.

Another driver for the Russians to try to get a buffer around Pavlivka is the anticipated loss of Kherson Oblast west of the Dnipir River. A rough overlay of the HIMARS 70km range shows that much of the Russian occupied Kherson (east of the Dnipir) and Zaporizhzhia Oblast to the Crimean border is covered – further prohibiting logistical and personnel movements. BTW, Ukrainian targeting would be enhanced given the strong resistance elements already in place.

However, this effort could backfire and give Ukraine an opportunity for a major counter attack. Pavlivka lies due north of Mariupol and it is the thinnest section of Russia’s ‘land bridge’ between N Crimea and the mainland Russia to the east. Should Russian forces deplete themselves here, Ukraine could push south across this approximately 60 km strip of land and cut the Russian forces in half. I can’t say if / when this could happen, but Russian efforts are increasing to capture Pavlivka and beyond. However, most of the forces being committed are either depleted units or mobilized conscripts with little or no training.

In and around Kherson Ukrainian forces continue long range artillery and airstrikes, with a Russian military establishment targeted in Nova Kakhovka yesterday with reports of significant casualties. Two more Russian ammunition/resupply depots were also destroyed in the Kherson region yesterday.

Occupation authorities announced mandatory evacuation in Beryslav, Kherson region. Residents should leave before 10th November. (Located on the west bank of the Dnipir near the Kakhovka Dam)

Crimean front ———
Monitoring Russian withdrawal from Kherson and establishment of new defensive lines east of the Dnipir River. Ukraine continues to hit Russian supply bases, command posts and troop concentrations.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Nibbles of actions along both east and south fronts. The battle at/around near Makiivka lost a lot of the conscripts recently sent to the front – and instead of stopping Ukraine’s advance, it only hastened it.

Developing battle around the Pavlivka area is important to watch as well. Russia has very little capability to launch any kind of a sizeable offensive operation while trying to hold off Ukraine advances in Kherson and the east. The reports I’ve read are that this assault isn’t going to go anywhere – Russia just can’t mass the manpower and artillery firepower to overcome Ukrainan defenses and that their efforts may boomerang on them and actually lose ground.

Still have concerns about the bigger plan concerning Russia’s activity in Kherson Oblast west of the Dnipir River. Ukraine would normally be exploiting such a scenario and they are even playing cautious.

Pakistan -

Former Pakistani Prime minister Imran Khan announced he would resume his protest march to Islamabad after recovering from a gunshot wound he received last week.
Supporters have urged Khan to continue the march despite concerns from the Pakistani government that violence surrounding the event could continue to grow as security forces clashed with Khan’s supporters in several major cities.

OBSERVATION – Growing civil unrest in a nuclear bomb equipped nation – not a good mix. Like playing with matches in an ammo bunker.

Iran -

Fresh demonstrations occurred in the northwestern Iranian city of Marivan on Sunday, following the death of Kurdish student Nasrin Ghaderi.
The latest flare of protests comes as anti-government demonstrations in Iran continued for a seventh week in one of the biggest shows of dissent in years.

OBSERVATION – There are also calls from within the regime for even more violent response to put the protests down. At some point these protests are going to seriously detract from Iranian policy games and they will be forced into even harsher responses. At this stage, the current harsh actions to try to put the protests down have only energized them.

Lebanon -

Once known for its stable and investment-friendly banking system, Lebanon has plunged into chaos as hyperinflation grips the country and banks force huge haircuts on dollar withdrawals. To make ends meet in a financial system that no longer makes sense, some Lebanese are mining bitcoin or storing wealth using the cryptocurrency.

OBSERVATION – Hezebollah controlled failed state. Once a beautiful land now impoverished by its radical Islamic warlords.

Syria -

Assad’s forces bombed refugee camps near Idlib with BM-27 Uragan rockets. Each on those rockets contain 100s of cluster bomblets. Initial reports of 80 casualties among civilians. The opposition Syrian Interim Government calls on the international community to put an end to “the persistence of the Assad government and its allies and to stop their crimes.”

OBSERVATION – The ongoing (un)civil war in Syria continues on and hitting a refugee camp where refugees are packed in tightly in tents and simple shacks is unthinkable to our western minds. Syria shows no signs of becoming civilized in any measure for a long, long time.

Saw that I pinged yesterday’s post to myself (not enough coffee) woops.

Voting day – get out there and vote like your life depends on it.

Globalism / Great Reset –

British PM Rishi Sunak has said it is “morally right” that Britain honours its climate change commitments in his speech at Cop27, but he made no mention of paying reparations after Boris Johnson said the country cannot afford to do so.
He said he believed the conference could deliver on the promises, and announced the UK was tripling its funding to help nations adapt to the impacts of climate change. There is a big question over where all this money Rishi Sunak is promising is supposed to come from. Britain’s public finances are in a precarious state.

OBSERVATION - Global warming / climate change is nothing but a giant wealth distribution scheme.

Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) may require a network of international deals to stop state-backed money from infringing on other countries’ sovereignty, European Union Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said on Monday.
The bloc of 27 nations is considering a digital version of the euro, but needs to resolve issues such as how a digital euro will work for cross-border payments.
“How do you avoid the risk of infringing the sovereignty of other jurisdictions through a digital currency … while developing a digital currency with global ambition, as the digital euro will be?” said Gentiloni, who is responsible for economic policy at the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm. Gentiloni was speaking at a conference on the digital euro organized by the Commission and the European Central Bank.

OBSERVATION- Individual countries pursuing CBDCs but they will need to be cross compatible. Thus the eventual justification by the GGR/WEF for a singular CBDC (that just happens to track your social credit score as well)

Wuhan virus –

Judicial Watch, a government watchdog organization, announced Tuesday that it filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit against the U.S Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) for insufficiently responding to a records request for COVID-19 vaccine safety studies.

OBSERVATION – This is a key step in documenting fraud in the testing and approval of the jabs – fraud that could strip any immunity from lawsuits away from Pfizer and Moderna and may even include govt officials in the CDC and FDA.

21.8 million excess deaths — that’s the world estimate as of October 24, 2022, dating back from January 1, 2020. That number was sub 5 million before the vaccine rollout, and although confirmed COVID deaths have flattened out, cumulative excess mortality continues to rise. And that estimate of 21.8 million excess deaths could very well be as high as 28 million.

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

OBSERVATION – Excess deaths – good reason for there not to be any amnesty for those who pushed the jab.

Economy –

Recent rain over the Mississippi watershed has risen river levels, permitting more unrestricted barge traffic.

Consumers in the North East are likely to shoulder the highest energy bills in 25 years this winter and could face shortages. New England and the Mid-Atlantic are now more dependent on gas than before due to the shutdown of coal power plants and the failure of green alternatives to replace them. Half of the electricity generated in New England and New York comes from gas, and heating may take priority over generating power.

OBSERVATION - Go green and freeze to death in the dark.

Biden / Harris watch –

biden regime’s next two years hang on this vote.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Biden over the past few days has declared that his administration (and not some future one) will completely shut down the coal/oil/and gas industries. Putting aside the straight economic and practical considerations that would normally cause such a claim to thrown into the garbage bin, this one (combined with his ‘threats’ against those who don’t vote democrat) require closer examination. The only way he could effectively even make an attempt is to nationalize those industries. Such an action would throw the country into complete turmoil. Are the democrats that power hungry to take such a brazen action? Their time is short and they may actually try to run a scorched earth effort prior to being replaced by a republican congress – while they still have the votes.
Probability is small as it would likely destroy any hopes of a 2024 retention of the WH, but the deep state may be desperate enough to attempt it. Biden (or his handlers) sure seems to aggressively want to pursue it.

In a letter to John “Bert” Russ, Deputy Chief & Elections Coordinator for the Department of Justice by Florida Department of State General Counsel Brad McVay, the DeSantis administration warns that under Florida statute, DOJ monitors “are not permitted” inside Florida polling locations.

The DeSantis administration will in turn dispatch its own election integrity monitors to ensure that the federal government does not interfere in Florida’s election process. The apparent elections overstep by the Biden administration could be perceived as a form of election day intimidation.

This follows biden administration announcement that the DOJ will monitor polls in 24 states to ensure voting law compliance.

OBSERVATION – Evidence of the continued growth in the gap between biden’s lawless overreach into this election cycle and an aggressive push back by the state(s). Question is will the feds try to push the issue and will Florida law enforcement cuff them and march them out.

Word out of Portland is that some businesses are boarding up in anticipation of Antifa et al riots in response to the potential red wave that could upset blue Portland and the rest of the state. After Trump’s 2016 win, riots broke out causing substantial damage. Rumors are the same is being planned for again.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Election day will it be fair or will the left come up with another way to cheat?

China –

63 PLA aircraft and 4 PLAN vessels around our surrounding region were detected Nov. 7.

OBSERVATION – I’ll need to pay closer attention. That is a high aircraft count.

China’s foreign ministry says that Britain must stop any form of official exchanges with Taiwan, following plans by a British minister to visit Taiwan - Reuters

OBSERVATION – Standard Chinese threat.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

********

Logistics –
- N Korea denying it is shipping ammunition to support the Russian invasion.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- Local uprisings of forced conscripts against their assigned military leadership.

Economic Impact –
- Europe’s quick response to procure energy backup supplies and reactivation of coal/nuclear facilities have taken the edge off of Russia’s gas weapon.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The situation on the Russian front lines around Svatove is reportedly chaotic. It seems newly mobilized Russian units were involved in shelling friendly forces due to failed communications and no commanders. These units have very low training and morale.

Russian forces continue with constant localized offensives on Bakhmut, where private contractors and more elite units are active, but reports Bakhmut is about to fall are not accurate. Russian shelling remained intensive yesterday around Bakhmut, around Svatove (where they were potentially firing on their own positions at one point), and north of Kherson. In most other areas there were numerous artillery strikes, but none too intense..

Russian air/missile and drones strikes continued yesterday and overnight, but remained at relatively low levels.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Russian occasional shelling in the southern areas of the Sumy region overnight.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Fight around Svatove continues to see Ukrainian gains, albeit small. Ukrainian military captured 21 mobilised men from Moscow region near Svatove.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russia continues to enter the meat grinder around Bahkmut. Yesterday saw some scattered advances by Russian/Wagner forces, but nothing that indicated any kind of substantial break out was imminent.

Fighting continued at the town of Pavlivka with more reports of heavy Russian losses.

Commercial satellite imagery and ground reports indicate that Wagner forces are establishing a dragons teeth defensive line around Melitopol.

FOLLOW UP ON THE DISASTEROUS RUSSIAN ATTACK ON PAVLIVKA.

Much of the information on the battle came from the Russian side. Russian Milbloggers have been very vocal about the disaster, the 155th and general management of the war. Contrary to some opinions I’ve read on FR, the information out there was not made up by pro-Ukranian elements, but were obtained from pro-Russian sources.

The disastrous attack reportedly took place Oct 30-31 was lead by the 155th Naval infantry (Marines) with support from the 40th Naval infantry (Marines). The 155th reportedly was seriously depleted in man power and was reinforced by the 40th – also heavily depleted.

The 155th gained initial attention in February, when 220 of the 155th’s marines refused to deploy to into Ukraine. The unit suffered heavy losses in the battle for Kyiv. It was considered one of the few “elite” brigades remaining. But heavy losses suggest that when it attacked Pavlivka it had fewer than 3 BTGs available.

According to Russian milbloggers (and some survivor accounts) the commander of the attack did not have the proper equipment for the attack and artillery spotters were not doing their job. Artillery was reportedly off by 500m or more and tanks just drove around till they collected a mine or rocket.

Much of the battle has been pieced together by OSINT gatherers from Russian milboggers on various social media accounts such as Telegram, as well as survivors posts. The Russian MOD acknowledges the defeat, though they deliberately misrepresent the losses.

The 155th/40th attacked Pavlivka from the east, coming out of a forested area into farmland and very open terrain. Ukraine mud conditions pretty much kept them road bound. The line of attack as it approached the city narrowed into a wedge of land lined on the north and south by a tree line. Russian tanks proceeded without any significant infantry support and some units got into the edge of the town before the trap was sprung. Ukranian forces has set this area up as an armor kill zone – with excellent fields of fire for ATGM systems and soon unleashed hell on the Russian forces. I watched geolocated videos of part of the ambush. The lead tank was hit and the rest of the column just comes to a stop – nice big, fat armor targets that were stationary and soon went up in smoke. Tanks that made it to the city were just hunted down by Ukraine infantry (because they lacked infantry support). Some tried to pull back but ran into the same kill zone. What few infantry that made it to the town area turned and tried to escape, traveling all bunched up, and trying to hide together in groups of 20 or so. Ukrainian artillery made short work of them (video’s I saw of this phase were not pretty).

End result, 300+ dead are reported, probably another 900 WIA or MIA. Many consider the 155th to be a unit in name only now.

Moral of the story – As the ‘Phase 2’ Russian war effort has ground on, Russia has quickly unlearned the lessons of the initial phase of the war. They revert to the tactic of frontal assaults without any kind of combined arms coordination and maneuver. This was a poorly planned and even more poorly executed attack. This scenario is playing itself out across the front in Eastern Ukraine. The loss of officers and experienced NCOs combined with the beyond green mobilized conscripts is making matters worse, not better for Russia and its forces.

Crimean front ———
More defensive preparations east of the Dnipir River. Further reports of wide scale looting by Russian forces. Russian sources claimed that Ukraine is massing for an attack on Kherson – most likely propaganda in order to force more Ukranians to leave the region.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Not much change so far from previous weeks. Weather appears to be the biggest factor in the tempo of operations by both sides. Ukraine continues to slowly push in the east, while looking carefully at the Russian defensive plans in the south.

Ukraine’s power grid is significantly damaged and the country is struggling to restore power. Russia may have found one method to successfully attack the grid - that by over whelming Ukrainian ADA capabilities by firing a mix of missiles and Iranian drones at targets. However, this requires a lot of missiles and drones and the observed reduction in those attacks suggest Russian is running short of both.

Poland -

U.S. and Polish officials announced the construction of a new U.S. military logistics hub at Poland’s Powidz Air Base, praising it as a key expansion of American support to NATO. The logistics hub will provide fueling facilities for NATO and US Air Force aircraft, as well as a US Army combat aviation brigade stationed at the base. The U.S. and Poland have also planned the construction of hangers and warehouse facilities to support the US aircraft stationed at Powidz.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, accused the Serbian government of deliberately “sabotaging dialogue” and attempting to destabilize the country amid the growing spat over license plates that have set the Balkans on edge. The accusations come as ethnic Serbians employed by the government of Kosovo have walked off their jobs in protest of the license plate mandates, including ten members of parliament, one state prosecutor, and 576 police officers. Serb politician Goran Rakic denounced the Kosovo government, saying, “We are on our land, and we will not give up. There is no withdrawal. Long live Serbia!” Representatives from NATO say it has urged calm between the countries but added the alliance’s KFOR Peacekeeping Mission “stands vigilant” to respond to any escalations. (FO)

OBSERVATION – So far, just rhetoric and chest thumping. Serbia does have the capacity to attack Kosovo, but it will also suffer a lot of casualities as NATO responds.

Israel –

Ukraine’s president Zelensky has called Israeli elected PM Netanyahu to congratulated him for his victory.

Finally, Biden on Monday congratulated Binyamin Netanyahu on winning a new term as Israeli prime minister, in a call that came four days after final results were announced and the outgoing caretaker prime minister Lapid conceded defeat.

Iran -

Protests continue with Iranian youngsters desecrating posters and statues of Quds Force Commander slain in a US drone strike.

OBSERVATION - Protestors are becoming bolder and bolder with time as well as gaining support.

Still slightly dazed over the election results. Didn’t build my hopes up for the red tsunami but clearly didn’t expect the implosion that occurred.

Even here in the deep red Redoubt state of Montana things got tense as it appeared it would allow its new congressional district to fall to a democrat. Currently Zinke (R) has a 4% lead over Trannel with 66% of precincts reporting. Early results from the liberal enclaves of Bozangelas (Bozeman MT) and Missoulafornia (Missoula MT) put Trannel up early.

Invasion of Illegals -

The US Department of Homeland Security wants to deport the illegal immigrant accused of assaulting House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband with a hammer.

However, San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins said Thursday that she will refuse to turn the suspect over to ICE officials citing the San Francisco’s sanctuary city policies which ban departments and officials from assisting immigration officers with detentions or deportations.

Jenkins said in a statement hours after US Immigration and Customs Enforcement publicly disclosed the hold on David DePape, “San Francisco is a sanctuary city and our policy is sacred.”
She added, “We will not be collaborating or coordinating with ICE.”

OBSERVATION – Was wondering when this conflict would raise its head.

Biden / Harris watch –

A ‘lid’ was called on biden as election results were being tallied. As noted later, it appears that biden will come out of this politically stronger.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Portland Police are patrolling downtown after Antifa announced midterm riot plans on Twitter targeting office of Rene for Portland. Three militants in black bloc have reportedly been arrested already. Antifa are telling comrades to come prepared.

OBSERVATION – Portland and in particular down town businesses, were already fearing an outbreak of violence. So far action has been limited and virtually nothing similar happening anywhere else in the nation.

The unanticipated split decision from yesterday’s voting is not going to stabilize the red-blue split in the country, but will likely encourage the blue to double down on its violent rhetoric towards the right. With that, red will double down its resistance to the left’s agenda. Political violence can easily be increased as a result. Thus the next two years will be even more perilous now than ever. Will be assessing this even more as the week progresses.

See Political Front for more of my views.

POLITICAL FRONT –

I won’t go too far into the disastrous results for the republicans. There were a few bright spots but overall, the performance was over sold and underwhelming. The pundits on both sides will be bleating about this for some weeks to come.

One component that many on the right though was outlandish was the blatant, over the top claims that our ‘democracy’ will fall if the red wave materializes and life as we know it will end. Is it possible that democrat polling noted that such a doomsday message will strike a good target? Some already note that gen Z may have responded in turnout, swaying the vote. IDK, but the unity in message may have gone beyond an act of desperation.

Biden’s doomday message – if a valid contributor to democrats dodging the apparent red wave, may severely limit Trump’s aspirations for reelection. This destroys common sense given that during this election cycle he continued to draw mammoth crowds and will likely continue if he runs for president. However, presidential campaign dynamics are different in many ways from local election dynamics. The fallout from the mids need to be thoroughly scrubbed to sort out.

There were the standard questionable voting reports. Pushback from 2020 did seal some of the gaps, while now alert republicans closely monitored other areas of cheating. With dawn’s light irregularities and cheating may become more apparent.

At best, republicans will take control of the house and remain split in the Senate. This will increase the partisan fighting in Congress to the next higher level and constipate much of the left’s political agenda.

I expect to see the knives come out for republican congressional leadership such as McConnell who are seen as snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in how they withdrew support for candidates just because Trump endorsed them.

The left, OTOH was already preparing to double down its efforts to shove its agenda down the throats of Americans as the minority party. Now that they are not the minority many thought they would be at this stage will embolden them even more.

The fighting in congress will also tie their hands to a degree in their opposition to biden, who I fully expect will double down on EO’s and administrative / regulatory actions to bypass congress even more to push his agenda through. Delay, obfuscate and ignore any congressional efforts to the contrary – something democrats have honed to a very sharp edge over the years.

At this stage of the election returns - biden appears to have strengthened his position as the leader of the democrat party rather than folding and facing forced removal.

China –

As noted yesterday, the number of Chinese aircraft into Taiwan’s ADZ was unusual. 63 planes was record number of aircraft.

North/South Korea –

Overnight NK launched a SRBM, the first for several days. The SRBM flew 290 km at apogee of 30 km at top speed of Mach 6

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

********

In previous posts, I’ve noted the intelligence and reporting by Russian milbloggers. They have known for spreading propaganda on Russian ‘successes’, but have also opened a window to Russian failures. Along with Wagner Group and Chechen mercenary leaders – they have driven the nationalist push behind putin. As such they shouldn’t be automatically ruled out – especially when their posts see support from other sources.

The Russian MoD has remained remarkably tight-lipped about milblogger critiques of Russian failures throughout the war in Ukraine — unlike the Kremlin, which will occasionally indirectly address milblogger narratives. The MoD’s public response to milblogger outcry indicates that some Russian milbloggers have considerable leverage to shape MoD interactions in the information space and additionally suggests that the situation in Pavlivka is dire enough to warrant a response.

OSINT is multidimensional in sources and evaluation of those sources for accuracy. It is foolish to issue a blanket discount of Russian sources without evaluation of just what they are saying and if there is evidence to back up their reporting. That is something I keep in mind. The Pavlivka attack is one such event.

Logistics –
- RUMINT. Sky News reports Russia flew €140m in cash and a selection of captured UK and US weapons to Iran in return for dozens of deadly drones for its war in Ukraine, a security source has claimed.
- Iranian state-run outlet Nour News Agency reported that Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev arrived in Tehran on November 8, likely to discuss the potential sale of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues to be significant east of Bakhmut and north of Donetsk, with the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south around Kherson made gains yesterday. Russian shelling was mostly more sporadic in all impacted areas yesterday.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Widely scattered Russian artillery strikes.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
More Russian attacks in the Bakhmut region reported repulsed by Ukraine.

Donetsk Oblast ——
More fighting northeast of Donetsk with some supporting artillery fire. Additional Russian attacks against Pavlivka.

Crimean front ———
Ukrainian forces have liberated Snihurivka in Kherson Oblast, likely triggering Russia to blow up several bridges to the south of the city that cross a southward flowing small tributary of the Dnipir. The bridge destruction may indicate that Russia is facing being overrun or just spooked by the attack.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Missile attack alerts nationwide as I type this morning.

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Nov 7th for Kherson has come and gone. However there may be hints that Ukraine is stepping up its offensive with the capture of Snihurivka. RUMINT that Russian forces may be on the verge of another panicked retreat given that Russia has put the untrained conscripts on the front while withdrawing its higher quality troops. The next few day could clarify things.

Otherwise, no significant changes foreseen ( but can change, given the dynamics of the war so far).

Russian attacks against Pavlivka, in the face of the debacle of the 155th continues to point to Russia’s desire to get Ukrainian artillery systems far enough away from rail lines that can be used to get men and munitions to the southern front until the Kersch Bridge can be restored. However, Russian forces are so depleted that there is very little chance of success. The 155th (and the supporting 40th) were some of their better manned and equipped units. Now Russia is stuck with far less capable units backfilled with untrained forced conscripts.

Israel –

See Syria on airstrike –

Within the past three years, F-35Is of Israel Air Force have conducted tens of airstrikes against IRGC backed proxies in eastern Syria. Tonight’s airstrike aims to disrupt plans of Iran’s Islamic Regime for sending weapons & fuel to Lebanon’s Hezbollah via Al-Qaim.

Iran -

See Syria on probable IAF airstrike on a convoy to supply Hezebollah in Lebanon

Protests continue throughout the country. Iran carried out the first executions of two people in Zahedan against the backdrop of protests.

The European Union is considering expanding sanctions against Iran and coordinating them with other countries in response to Iran’s supplying weapons to Russia to be used against Ukraine.

Syria -

A suspected Israeli airstrike hit a convoy of trucks that had just entered Syria from Iran enroute to Lebanon.

Though not confirmed by Israel, it appears IAF targeted a convoy of trucks belonging to IRGC affiliated Hashd al-Shaabi (PMU) near Al-Bukamal, Deir Ez Zor (close to Iraq-Syria border). Several militants have lost their lives. One of these trucks was suspected to be carrying missiles.

OBSERVATION - Iran may have tried this convoy action because Israel has gotten very good at interdicting anything flown into Damascus. just shows that Israeli intel continues to be very good and timely.

The country is at a greater danger today as a result of Tuesday - from both domestic sources as well as international ones.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Workers in Belgium and Greece took to the streets in a general strike citing increased consumer prices and cost of living. The demonstrations quickly led to violence as thousands of protestors from national workers’ unions marched in the Greek cities of Thessaloniki and Athens with groups of protestors throwing Molotov cocktails and rocks at police. General strikes in Greece and Belgium caused significant disruptions to transportation sectors, leaving public transportation systems at a standstill, and causing the cancelation of 60% of flights to and from Brussels.

OBSERVATION – France and Britain are facing similar issues. Believe it or not this feeds into the GGR goals to ‘reset’ the economies. Create the problem and be the solution. Hegelian dialectic at work.

Wuhan virus –

The World Health Organization chief on Wednesday said a nearly 90% drop in recent COVID-19 deaths globally compared to nine months ago provides “cause for optimism,” but still urged vigilance against the pandemic as variants continue to crop up.
Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that last week just over 9,400 deaths linked to the coronavirus were reported to the WHO. In February of this year, he said, weekly deaths had topped 75,000 globally.

OBSERVATION – Those variants are in no way even close to the lethality of the original virus (if we can consider that by itself – especially since those death numbers have been intentially inflated).

Economy –

Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released today shows an annualized rate of inflation at 7.7%, and a month-over-month price for everyday goods including gasoline, groceries and rents, rose 0.4% in October from the previous month.

OBSERVATION – While this number is lower, the cumulative effect of the high inflation being experienced is still significant. We are not out of the woods by any means. Rule of thumb I read is that it takes Fed interest rate changes about 6 months to amble through the economy. Real economic dynamics operate on a much shorter time loop. Black swan events can throw the whole cycle off in an instant. JP Morgan analysts write “Our view is that we have entered a period of greater volatility of growth, inflation and markets, with shorter and faster economic cycles.”

The continued push by the Fed to raise interest rates, with its 6 month delay, could create unforeseen other unintended consequences in the economy. This is already evident from economic ripples coming out of the collapse of the housing and mortgage markets.

OBSERVATION – Yes, there is still a lot of gloom in analysts reviews of the status of the economy. I’ve posted before that we are in a zone of inflection, potentially on the edge of a cliff. Too many sectors are on shaky legs as it is with inflation, supply issues, manpower etc. These factors are just not really addressed by brute force prime rate changes by the Fed.

Turmoil in post- midterms congress about to get real as the 16 December deadline to pass another Continuing Resolution. “What’s most important to me about Congress for the next two months is that they avoid turning the national debt into some kind of hostage… This is a fragile moment in financial markets,” former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said.

OBSERVATION - Not sure how the outgoing congress is going to work thru this. I think the democrat, buoyed by their relatively success effort to stave off the red wave may be feeling their oats and try to force measures that are repugnant to republicans – forcing a shut down. Alternatively, they may just do another short CR and put the thing in the lap of the republicans – giving them room to sabotage it and blame the republicans.

According to the latest estimate from the Energy Information Administration, consumers who rely on heating oil should expect to pay 45% more than last winter. This is nearly double last month’s projected increase of 27%. Stockpiles in the Northeast are currently a third of typical levels.

OBSERVATION – Increased costs just from this sector have yet to be really seen in the CPI.

Still hanging out there is the threat of a rail road strike. However, execution of such a strike has been pushed back to early December, as four major unions have agreed to coordinate the date on which they could potentially go on strike.
The third-largest railroad union, the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employe Division, had been prepared to strike as soon as November 20, the Sunday before Thanksgiving. But the group announced Wednesday that is has agreed to extend negotiations with the railroads until at least December 4, the deadline set by another union, the Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen. The rank and file members of both unions have rejected the tentative agreements reached with the railroads in September, mostly over the lack of sick pay in the contracts.
A strike by any one rail union would lead to a shutdown of America’s major freight railroads, as all the other unions, even those that have ratified contracts, would honor the picket lines. That could cause severe economic problems, as 30% of America’s freight moves by rail, when measured by weight and distance traveled.

OBSERVATION - As I noted on my comments concerning the CPI above, an extended strike could kick the legs out from under any relief from inflation by creating critical shortages quickly and thus driving prices skyward.

Biden / Harris watch –

From biden’s victory lap news conference yesterday – some very concerning comments
NOTE – These observations/comments are also applicable to the CW2 area as well.

“Our intention is to run again,” says Pres Biden, adding that his guess is that it’ll be “early next year” when he & his family make that decision. He says he doesn’t feel rushed to decide, no matter what Trump does.

OBSERVATION – Have his handlers reassessed his status as a boat anchor to the democrat party? Tuesday’s results do infer he came out of the elections in a stronger position than going into it.

Biden asked what happens if Trump runs again:
“We just have to demonstrate that he will not take power if he does run, by making sure under the legitimate efforts under the Constitution that he doesn’t become president again.”

OBSERVATION – This is one of the potentially scary parts. Under the constitution there are no provisions that biden can cite to prevent Trump from becoming president (under the assumption he wins). The only provisions are for Trump to be found guilty of a crime that disqualifies him from running. That means biden could well fire up the DoJ/FBI efforts to find some kind of charges they can fix on Trump and get a conviction.
As I’ve noted before, if the DoJ/FBI continues in its trend of making show arrests – they will likely cross over a red line and provoke kinetic action from elements of the right. That in turn will give the govt more reason to crack down on the right – a foundation already laid from govt policy and bidens Hitlerian speeches of late.

President Biden said Wednesday that he won’t change a thing about how he runs the country over the next two years in his first public comments since his fellow Democrats outperformed expectations in Tuesday’s midterm elections. “Nothing,” Biden said when asked what he planned to do differently over the next two years ahead of a potential 2024 reelection bid, “because they’re just finding out what we’re doing. The more they know about what we’re doing, the more support there is.”

OBSERVATION – Biden is taking the results as a renewed mandate to keep doing the same disastrous policies that have wreaked havoc over our country since he came to office. Much of what he has done has been via EOs and regulatory work arounds to avoid the log jam in congress. This will get worse with the switch of the house to republican control. (if republicans gain ‘control’ in the senate as well, it is unreliable due to the RINO democrat collaborators in the party). He further has far less fear of impeachment with the greatly reduced red ‘wave’ and may operate more freely in opposition to congress and the laws of the land.

CW2/Domestic violence –

See biden’s comments above – particularly those addressed to prevent Trump from running (or attaining ) for president and the continuation of policies that have degraded this nation.

Antifa is still angry in Portland as one of their favored commissioners was voted out of office, generating cries for vengeance. No clear reports on how much damage was caused since the election, but indicators are that it has been limited.

POLITICAL FRONT –

See discussion of biden’s victory lap speech above.

Aftershocks continue following the very bad, awful day republicans had at the mid term polls. It is very likely that republicans will have a net of at least about 15 seats – what is needed to take control of the house. Historical midterm flips generally range about 25 seats. Senate control still in the balance and may boil down to the Georgia runoff.

Congressional turmoil is guaranteed for the next two years no matter what. That turmoil can threaten the stability of the nation and make the red-blue divide even bigger.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Amphibious assault ship USS Makin Island (LHD-8), the flagship of the Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group, left Naval Base San Diego on Wednesday for a deployment to the Indo-Pacific region, USNI News has learned.
The Amphibious Ready Group with the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked includes Makin Island and amphibious transport docks USS John P. Murtha (LPD-26) and USS Anchorage (LPD-23). Makin Island and John P. Murtha left San Diego on Wednesday, while Anchorage left on Tuesday.

The U.S. Navy has raised its maximum age for general enlistment from 39 to 41, after the U.S. military saw historic struggles with recruiting in the 2022 fiscal year and signs of continued struggles ahead. Under the new change, recruits must now report to boot camp before their 42nd birthday.

China –

China will focus on preparing for war with the country’s security ‘increasingly unstable and uncertain’, President Xi Jinping has declared.
Beijing will now comprehensively strengthen its military training and preparation for any war, Xi said today, according to state broadcaster CCTV.
His warning comes after Xi last month called for faster military development, ‘self-reliance and strength’ in technology and defense of China’s interests abroad, raising the likelihood of further conflict.

OBSERVATION – Nothing short of a coup will remove Xi from his position and with his hand picked followers in key positions, he will be unencumbered in following his desires. War with China is inevitable.

North/South Korea –

SK retrieved parts of the many missiles NK recently shot off and reports that they are mostly aged Soviet rockets, nothing substantially new.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. In a surprise move, Russia directed the withdrawal of forces from the western side of the Dnipir River.

Russia has increased the construction of defensive fortifications in many places in the south and east Ukraine.

********
Russian Defense Minister Shoigu ordered Surovkin to withdraw troops to the left bank of Dnipro river.
“Shoigu agreed with the (Surovikin’s) proposal to organize defense along the line of the Dnieper River: proceed with the withdrawal of troops”
Surovikin directly acknowledged that Russian forces cannot supply their grouping in Kherson City and the surrounding areas due to Ukrainian strikes on critical Russian supply lines to the west bank. “Under these conditions, the city of Kherson and nearby settlements cannot be supplied in a fully-fledged manner” the Commander for Russia’s forces in Ukraine said on Wednesday.

The withdrawal met with approval from a key putin ally - Ramzan Kadyrov congratulated Surovikin, saying the withdrawal was a wise decision.

Attached link shows the region to see what we are talking about.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhJahpjWIAAqC0s?format=jpg&name=large

At this time, there is a lot of evidence that Russia is not ready yet to surrender Kherson city proper. Possibly in order to defend Dnipir crossing sites from being quickly overrun by Ukranian forces, trapping Russians on the west side of the river or perhaps to try to clone the Ukranian ‘meat grinder’ urban defense tactics.

OBSERVATION – Wow, as I’ve said, things can change quickly. Strategically, this is another huge loss for the Russians. This appears to be a sequel to the great withdrawal of Kyiv this past spring. Conditions for panic and chaos in Russia’s poorly trained and lead soldiers are ripe.
Kherson City is the only provincial capital captured by the Russians since the start of the war this past February. With this withdrawal, Russia has abandoned its “land bridge” goals of capturing southern Ukraine and having Russian controlled lands all the way to Transnistria.

From a strategic/tactical perspective reconsolidation of Russian troops on the eastern bank of the river a logical choice, shortening logistical chains and providing a natural defensive barrier as winter weather approaches. However, how well this move sets on the Russian nationalists now seeing Russian “territory” being essentially ceded back to Ukraine has yet to be seen.

OSINT and open source imagery show Russians constructing even more lines of defensive. In addition to that already identified on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipir River and being constructed by Wagner group forces in the east, construction of fixed defenses along the Crimean border have been observed. All this infers that Russia is desperately planning on a winter defensive strategy to hold out until they are able to mobilize more soldiers and scrape up more equipment.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia’s announcement of its withdrawal from Kherson Oblast has kicked the action up several notches in the south. Russian localized offensives around Bakhmut and Soledar were repelled yesterday and in the south fighting was intensive around Snihurivka as Ukrainian forces continue their southern push.

Russian air/missile/drone strikes remained more limited yesterday and overnight but appeared to have been concentrated in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast which was targeted heavily by Iranian drones . Russian shelling continued to be mostly more sporadic yesterday across fronts in the east and south.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporadic Russian artillery strikes reported.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine continue to press eastward against Russian forces along the Svatove – Kreminna line.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russians continued their frontal assaults of Ukrainian defenses around Bakhmut with no success. Same for the Donetsk area, as Russians try to push northwest along highway M04.

Crimean front ———
Ukrainian forces are moving towards Kherson on at least three major fronts (southwestward along the right bank of the Dnipir, one southward from Snihurivka and the third southeastward from the Mykolaiv area), but with caution. Russian forces are fighting a delaying, rear guard action at the moment, but with Ukrainian successes, pressure is building on the poorly trained and motivated troops to withdrawal in an orderly manner meaning that they could cut and run at any moment like in Kharkiv as well as the pull out from the Kyiv region earlier this year.

Several settlements were re-secured yesterday along with strategic roads. Snihurivka, the largest Russian-held town north of Kherson, was confirmed to be liberated by Ukrainian forces.

News of the withdrawal may have caught the Russian troops somewhat by surprise. The big question now is whether Russia can withdraw the Dnipir River without taking heavy equipment and personnel losses. Ukraine has every incentive to make this withdrawal as chaotic and costly as possible

During the past months have setup an elaborate system of ferry’s crossing the Dnipro river. At least 8 ferry sites have been active. In the Kherson city area, there were 3 main ferry points, one is located near the Antonovskyyi railbridge near Pridniprovsky, near the ferry loading site. However, Ukraine knows these areas well as well as assembly areas that would provide lucrative targets for HIMARS and other artillery systems to hammer bunched up fleeing Russians. One such assembly area was reportedly hit overnight – with explosions reported in Oleshky district of Kherson region, a suspected ferry discharge assembly area southeast of Kherson, after missile strikes at Russian military equipment (location is also along the major M14/M17 highway that leads east)

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

Another well-known Russian military propagandist: “Kirill Stremousov [deputy head of Russia’s collaboration authorities in Kherson] has been killed in a car “accident”.

OUTLOOK ——
Like I said, wow, the situation can change rapidly. Evidence shows that Russia has been planning for a pullout for a while now, establishing a defensive in depth along the left (east – southeast bank) bank of the Dnipir. However, the open order to withdraw was a surprise, given Russia’s earlier announcement of the annexation of lands captured by Russia – including occupied portions of Kherson Oblast.

With the arrival of the HIMARS systems, Ukraine has been able to attack Russian logistics, command and troop concentrations very effectively and with the Russian forces west of the Dnipir essentially cut off and the Kerch Bridge seriously damaged and unable to be used to resupply forces, Russia saw they had little choice but to pull back. How chaotic the withdrawal will be depends, but I’m sure Russia will loose a lot more soldiers and equipment as the crossing sites and methods will be quickly overwhelmed by retreating / fleeing Russians.

Speaking of HIMARS, loss of the west bank of the Dnipir River will not stop Ukraine’s continued hammering of Russian logistics, command posts and troop concentrations. In fact, it will open up a whole new range of targets, even to the border of Crimea. Shortening of their supply lines under normal conditions (if you can call that in a war) would help Russia, but in this case Ukraine has the means to identify (via very active resistance cells/SOF operating in the region) and touch them.

The other question is how hard will the Russians try to make the fight for Kherson itself? There are many rumors and reports of Russian soldiers switching to civilian clothing and constructing strong points in the town. It would appear Russia is trying to implement their own form of a meatgrinder.

Belarus -

Continued training of Belarus and Russian soldiers in the central and western established training areas. No indicators of an imminent invasion.

Israel –

Israeli Defense Minister said in an interview “We are able to target Iran’s nuclear facilities”

OBSERVATION - Israel must be evaluating its options based on Tuesday’s US election results. I think they realize that they will get nothing but minimal lip service from biden over the next two years, so essentially they are on their own.

Iran -

Protests continue are the regime is starting to loose control of parts of the country. In Mahabad, NW Iran protesters are reportedly in control of numerous districts in this city, according to local activists

Misc of Note -

Central Florida being hammered by a Cat 1 Hurricane Nicole while recovery from an earlier Cat 5 is still being cleaned up. More damage and flooding to Florida and the southeast.

Alright, Friday. Lets get at it.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The concept of “fascism” was originally entered into the Encyclopedia Italiana by Italian philosopher Giovanni Gentile, who stated that “Fascism should more appropriately be called corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power.” Accordingly, all fascism is deeply rooted in leftist philosophies and thinkers. The natural progression of every form of Marxism, communism, socialism, fascism etc. all ultimately lead to a kind of globalist ideology and erasure of cultural separation. The methods might differ slightly but the end result is the same. Some think this is a good thing, but it is actually quite poisonous.

The new fascism is a re-branded philosophy best represented by something called “Stakeholder Capitalism.” It is a term often used by globalists at the World Economic Forum and the head of the WEF, Klaus Schwab. The media friendly definition of Stakeholder Capitalism is:

“A form of capitalism in which companies do not only optimize short-term profits for shareholders, but seek long term value creation, by taking into account the needs of all their stakeholders, and society at large.”

But who are “all stakeholders” in the opinion of the WEF?
Well, according to Klaus Schwab they are all of human civilization, now and in the future. In other words, the goal of SHC is for corporate leaders and globalist bureaucracy to take responsibility for the entire world, not just their own employees, shareholders and profits. And such leaders would not be acting as individuals, they would be acting as a collective. In other words, SHC requires all major corporations to act as a single unit with a single purpose and a unified collectivist ideology – An ideological monopoly. As Klaus Schwab states:
“The most important characteristic of the stakeholder model today is that the stakes of our system are now more clearly global. Economies, societies, and the environment are more closely linked to each other now than 50 years ago. The model we present here is therefore fundamentally global in nature, and the two primary stakeholders are as well.

…What was once seen as externalities in national economic policy making and individual corporate decision making will now need to be incorporated or internalized in the operations of every government, company, community, and individual. The planet is thus the center of the global economic system, and its health should be optimized in the decisions made by all other stakeholders.”
So fundamentally, the interim goal of the WEF are to ‘influence’ private corporations to do their bidding, in that these corporations use the shield of “private property” and business rights as a means to control society without repercussions. After all, a primary principle of conservatism and the US constitution is private property rights.
Most obvious examples are BlackRock ESG push as well as WEF leadership program graduates moving into key corporate leadership positions. Thus, without needing physical (military) power, WEF is able to advance its goals and eventually merge it all together as the pieces become ripe to do so.

OBSERVATION – This behind the curtain movement shows the seriousness of the WEF and GGR crowd. They are playing the long game and as of recent they have gotten many of the pieces ready to put together.

COP27 rambles on. One photo kinda buried in the mix is from a protester sign photographed in Egypt: “Climate change denial deserves the death penalty.” Sound familiar – similar directed towards wuhan/plandemic “deniers”.

More from the COP –
COP27 statement.
“The U.N. food agency aims to launch a plan within the year to make the world’s food system more sustainable, a senior executive told Reuters on the sidelines of the COP27 climate talks in Egypt.
The plan would show how the food industry and farming can align with the world’s goal of capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, Food and Agriculture Organization Deputy Director Zitouni Ould-Dada said.
The hope is that such a plan would act in a similar way to the release of a report for the energy sector by the International Energy Agency, which spurred investment into companies, projects and technologies aligned with the plan.”
“Food production accounts for around a third of global greenhouse gas emissions and is the main threat to 86% of the world’s species at risk of extinction, while cattle ranching is responsible for three quarters of Amazon rainforest loss. ……
Livestock accounts for nearly a third of the global methane emissions linked to human activity, released in the form of cattle burps, manure and the cultivation of feed crops.”

OBSERVATION – More plans to destroy farms and ranches. Remember, one of the goals is to reduce the human population to 500 million – so the need for current farms and ranches will not be there and what better way to lower the population is through starvation.

U.S. climate envoy John Kerry is planning to propose a new carbon-credit program that aims to ramp up funding from businesses and governments in wealthy economies to help developing countries cut back on fossil fuels.
…“No government in the world has enough money to affect the transition,” Mr. Kerry said. “The entity that could help the most is the private sector with the right structure.”
The plan aims to allow money to flow to emissions-reduction efforts for entire regions in the developing world. That would address one of the weaknesses under the current system, which grants credits for building individual renewable-energy projects but doesn’t ensure there are net emissions reductions happening across a broader area.

OBSERVATION – Just another way of wealth redistribution.

Economy –

In spite of the ‘moderated’ inflation numbers for October data the Federal Reserve is still on track for a fifth-straight 75 basis-point increase in interest rates at the Fed’s meeting next month, though traders are leaning more toward a half point. Concerns continue to increase in that the Feds dramatic tightening of the money supply will overshoot stated effects and cause the economy to over correct into a deep recession.

Effects of current Fed rate hikes are being reflected in the demand for home loan, with some analysts are noting that they have dropped to ‘depression’ era levels.

OBSERVATION – Bank surveys overwhelmingly suggest that we will be in a recession by next summer (still reluctance to recognize the start of the recessing being now). Indicators point to a deep one at that.

Invasion of Illegals -

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced on Thursday that the 300th busload of migrants is heading from the Lone Star State to Chicago.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden continues to strut his stuff, now vowing to ban virtually all guns in the US. See CW2 below.

Harris gaining some powerful party allies for a 2024 presidental run should biden decide not to.

CW2/Domestic violence –

America continues to arm for a hot CW. More than a million guns were sold in the U.S. for the 39th straight month in October, even as sales cool off from record pandemic-era highs, according to new data from National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF). Monthly data from the NSSF estimated that 1,265,311 guns were sold at retail last month. That’s down 11.3 percent from October 2021, but still the fourth highest October since 2000, according to the data. NSSF bases its estimate on the number of federal background checks run through the National Instant Criminal Background Check System, or NICS.
Last year, the Pew Research Center found 40 percent of U.S. adults saying there is a gun in their household. Personal protection topped the list of reasons for gun ownership in a 2019 Gallup poll.

OBSERVATION – Clear and simple, not all of these were purchased by the right, increasing numbers are being purchased by ‘blue’ individuals. Some drivers of blue purchases are fear of rising crime in their progressive lead city/state. Other blues are more tactically minded and are thinking towards a hot CW (some of these groups are affiliated with Antifa et al).

Biden on Wednesday put in his cross-hairs a wide range of ordinary firearms owned by millions of Americans, insisting that “assault weapons” be banned all across the country. Technically, any weapon can be used in an “assault” but leftists often use the term to describe weapons that have certain looks – such as an attached cartridge, a pistol grip, even camouflage markings.

OBSERVATION – With a pseudo mandate from the people (according to biden) expect attacks against the Second Amendment to increase sharply and biden tries every trick in the book to ‘outlaw’ and restrict arms and ammunition to citizens. The midterms put republican’s backs against the wall and should (can’t really claim they will) resist any new laws or bans. So biden will use backdoor approaches that have worked so far, such as ATF redefinitions of guns and gun parts as well as shutting down legal gun sales.

In spite of Trumps recent apparent melt downs (See below under Political) he has still a pretty solid base of support. Now that the midterms are gone and with biden’s threat of preventing a Trump presidency thru all available means under the ‘constitution’ voices are shouting on the left to get on with indictment.
American Constitution Society co-founder and Harvard University professor Lawrence Tribe argued it was too late for Attorney General Merrick Garland to appoint a special counsel to finish probes into Trump, but said “it’s time to indict” him because the DOJ’s reported informal rule against indicting political figures within 60 before elections no longer applied. Former Assistant U.S. Attorney Andrew Weissmann tweeted that “the rule of law compels” legal action against Trump.

OBSERVATION – Democrat definitions of “the rule of law compels” means extra-legal means that do not apply to them. Any action to frog march Trump will cause some factions to go kinetic.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

OMG – twitter twits are still in melt down mode over Musk’s changes.

POLITICAL FRONT –

There have been dozens of takeaways and “x number of points to learn” from the election. The best I’ve seen to date is Victor David Hanson’s analysis found here –

https://dailycaller.com/2022/11/10/victor-davis-hanson-tuesday-takeaways/

Aftershocks continue from Tuesday’s midterm elections. Some of the high (low) points.

- Mysterious “dumps” that mirrored the 2020 results appeared in both Michigan and Pennsylvania to boost the democrats to victory.

- Arizona cannot get its act together as Maricopa county now says it cannot get its ballots counted until next week. Since the early morning hours of Election Day, voters experienced issues with Maricopa County’s tabulator machines, with one polling worker revealing that around 25 percent of ballots were being rejected. Since then the counting of votes has been trickling in, especially after 290,000 ballots were dropped off Election day. There has been much speculation as to why there are so many delays, and accusations levied at election officials, who are blamed for delaying and stalling the process. On Wednesday evening, Maricopa County officials revealed that 70 out of 223 voting locations, or nearly one out of every three, were impacted by printer issues on Election Day. Latest count I’ve seen is that there is nearly 500,000 ballots outstanding needing to be counted.

- Similar counting ‘problems’ plaguing Nevada’s major counties.

OBSERVATION – Even third world countries can get their counts done efficiently .

Perhaps an aftershock, Trump went volcanic in what appears to be a rambling rage against FL’s DeSantus, Fox News and others. Even making snarky comments about Youngkin. In this latest, Trump is threatening to split his base and raise serious questions over his ability to unite the party for a 2024 run at the WH. (Personally – I’m concerned he’s losing it)

China –

On Wednesday, Los Angeles County prosecutor George Gascon dropped criminal charges against Eugene Yu, CEO of the Michigan election software company Konnech. Yu was arrested in October, and stands accused of storing data on poll workers in a China-based server, which was a breach of the company’s contract with LA County.

In a statement, the district attorney’s office said that it had dropped the case due to concerns regarding the “pace of the investigation” and the “potential bias in the presentation” of evidence in the case..

According to the New York Times, the sudden dismissal of the case leaves questions unanswered about Yu’s activities. “The district attorney’s office did not clarify whether the company had, in fact, stored data in China. It was also not clear whether additional criminal or civil charges could be filed against Mr. Yu or Konnech from Los Angeles County or dozens of other counties that use Konnech’s election management software,” the New York Times reported.

OBSERVATION- What powers that be pressured this action. China?

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

********

Yesterday Russia announced it was pulling out of Kherson Oblast. Less than 24 hours later Ukraine went on a tear and liberated the territory west of the Dnipir River and even Kherson city itself. Kremlin’s spokesperson Peskov denies that Kremlin believes the retreat from Kherson is humiliating for Russia. No changes to Russian laws. Says Kremlin is nothing to do with retreat, purely decision of Defense Ministry.

Russian ministry of Defense tried to spin the news stating the withdrawal of troops from the right bank of Dnipro has been concluded. “Not a single serviceman or piece of equipment lost”.

This is the third major loss by Russia, after the Kyiv and Kharkiv defeats. Through this announcement, all the blame appears to be placed on the MOD and firewalls putin.

More details below under Ukraine.

Logistics –
- Tallies of Russian equipment left behind in Kherson is staggering.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- At the start of the withdrawal, it was estimated that as many as 20,000 Russian soldiers were located west of the Dnipir. It will become clearer over the next days just how many didn’t make it across.

- General Milley at a press conference stated that the US has estimated the Russian killed/wounded losses since the start of the war to be “well over” 100,000 Russian soldiers “

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
SMH, I’ve said things can develop fast, but yesterday (and continuing thru today) has been on a rocket. Russia lost Kherson in less than 24 hours as Ukraine forced its attack, keeping Russian forces under direct pressure. This turnover in terrain was even faster than the withdrawal from Kyiv. A lot of unconfirmed reports of the total breakdown of Russian defenses and near continuous Ukrainian artillery fire on troop assembly areas at Dnipir crossing points. I had found some tactical maps last night, but by this morning they were obsolete as the whole of the territory has been liberated.

Meanwhile, elsewhere - Fighting continues to be intense east and southeast of Bakhmut, the primary region Russian forces (Wagner Group) are continuing to execute offensives, but still to no avail.

Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line. Progress made northwest of Svatove.

Russian shelling remained mostly sporadic along the LOC and adjacent regions yesterday. This could likely be due to lack of munitions and resupply choke points as well as damages by Ukrainian long range artillery, airstrikes and SF sabotage operations on ammo dumps.

NOTICE - The following fronts or areas of action will be pared down next post as action in those areas are not pertinent to the overall course of the war anymore and will save me time in preparation. Plus, latest actions point to potential new actions elsewhere and I’d rather readjust to deal with them now rather than later.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
NSR

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine continue to press eastward against Russian forces along the Svatove – Kreminna line. Ukraine forces closed in on the village of Kryvoshhyivka, located about 8-10 miles northwest of Svatove.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russians continued their frontal assaults of Ukrainian defenses around Bakhmut with no success.

Seems ground assaults in the vicinity of Orikhiv have stopped for now as most of the fighting has seemed over to the Bakhmut area.

Crimean front ———
By all reports, Kherson Oblast has been liberated. Ukranian troops entered Kherson city overnight as forces liberated about 6000 sq km of territory overnight. A lot of crazy spot reports that will be sorted out in the days to come. At this stage, every indication the Russian “withdrawal” from the west bank of the Dnipro degenerated into a rout. Some RUMINT suggests that Ukrainian army advanced towards Kherson faster than Russian generals have anticipated.

According to pro-Russian sources on Telegram, Ukrainian artillery is targeting both Russian troops preparing to cross the Dnipro and Russian ferries on the river itself
Russian eyewitnesses on the left bank of the Dnipro River tell Russian correspondent Valeria Petrusevich: “Ukrainian troops continue to shell the Kherson crossings, hit our guys in the back... The explosions do not stop”

Making matters worse, it appears that Russia pulled back their AD allowing Ukrainian air-assets to work freely (no cover for retreating forces).

It is believed and in some areas documented that Russia extensively mined Kherson with anti-personnel weapons to maximize Ukrainian casualties as it retreats. They used similar tactics during their withdrawal from Kyiv. These mines reportedly extend to apartments and sewage systems. Russians destroyed at least 2 spans of Antonivsky bridge, the major crossing over the Dnipir River at Kherson (had already been damaged by Ukrainian strikes). Reports that Russian military blowing up critical civilian infrastructure in Kherson as well – one being the TV tower in the main city.

Currently unsubstantiated reports that remaining Russian troops were so desperate to get out that they were trying to swim across the river leaving all of the equipment behind. Many videos released showing Russians walking out on foot bridges.

Further RUMINT that It is alleged that the Ukrainian army entered Novakakhova (near the much mentioned dam) and crossed over to the left (east) side of the Dnipir ) to cut the retreating route. Russian sources seem also to confirm this report. Another rumored Ukrainian crossing further south reported as well.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

In Russian occupied Ukraine, there have been a growing number of disruptions in the railroads that carry most of the supplies from Russia to Russian forces inside Ukraine. In Russian occupied Ukraine, there have been a growing number of disruptions in the railroads that carry most of the supplies from Russia to Russian forces inside Ukraine.

Local civilians discovered that they could sabotage the rail by damaging signals and other auxiliary equipment and forcing a temporary halt in traffic. Three months into the war these civilian railroad saboteurs were getting in touch with one another via encrypted Internet apps.
Each of these actions can put the rail line out of action for as many as three days.

OUTLOOK ——
Wow, Ukraine will be spending some time clearing and consolidating control over the liberated territory. Reports of Russian soldiers changing into civilian clothes may suggest that there has been a contingent (likely spetznaz) staying behind to gum up the works so to speak. More clarity on if and where Ukraine may have secured river crossings (particularly in the Novakakhova area). Such could put a damper on the defense in depth Russia has constructed on the left side of the Dnipir, providing Ukraine a way to flank those defenses. However, the necessity to consolidate the Kherson gains and the logistical challenges of pursuing an attack at this time say no. More likely, if Ukraine has gained a foot hold, they will build upon it for future exploitation.

It is going to take likely weeks for Russia to sort out the evacuation cluster and reorient it forces for defense. They likely have the defensive lines already manned, but the chaos of withdrawal. Evacuation will have also created ad hoc troop concentrations that Ukrainian HIMARS and other systems can reach. The immediate future for Russia is pretty bleak.

The next question is what will Ukraine do next? Gotta take a day or so to look at the situation as it stabilizes and dig into stated thoughts and plans. Gut reaction is that it will be a long, cold deadly winter for Russia.

Israel –

Israel Defense Forces announced that 2 Israeli army F-35i “Adir” aircraft escorted 2 U.S. B-52 bombers assigned to CENTCOM through Israel’s skies yesterday.

Iran -

Protests continue and protestors are showing less fear of the regime’s IRGC and paramilitary Basij Force, using Molotov cocktails, improvised weapons and captured firearms.

OBSERVATION – With more aggressive tactics against IRGC and paramilitary Basij Force by protestors, the incipient revolution is crossing into a more dangerous phase for the regime. As the people realize that they can fight back and that they have those forces outnumbered, I expect more such actions.

Misc of Note -

With all the discussion of a third straight La Nina winter, I’m waiting for the NOAA to walk it back. So far national weather patterns are not following the forecast of warmer, dryer conditions. So far its been much the opposite.
The first blizzard of the 2022-23 winter season is unfolding across the northern Plains and through the upper Midwest today. Parts of North and South Dakota and portions of Montana, Minnesota, and Nebraska are in the storm’s path. Some areas could experience more than a foot of snow and snowfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour.

(BTW – Here in the Redoubt temperatures have been well below average for the past 3 weeks and have been running a fire in the free standing fire place for most of that period – something I have to do later in the winter)

A powerful storm hit California on November 8, 2022, bringing record-breaking rains, snow, and at least 1 tornado. The storm left one person dead and several others missing. This was the wettest start of November in nearly 20 years for many locations across the state.

OBSERVATION – Still early in the season, but things aren’t trending along long term forecasts.

We are still reeling from the virulent transgender movement, but there is a new mental problem on the horizon that is gaining traction - “transabled” movement. This movement is made up of people who feel themselves to be disabled but are in fact physically healthy. Many of them wish to have a limb removed or to be otherwise mutilated so that their appearance and ability will match how they “feel”; a medical community which has embraced the practice of cutting off penises and surgically removing healthy breasts for the gender dysphoric doesn’t have any compelling grounds to refuse.

OBSERVATION – The insanity level of our world is going beyond the stratosphere.

Shortened post today – heading out of town for a short trip. BRB tomorrow.

Globalism / Great Reset –

SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt — Nations will likely burn through their remaining carbon budget in less than a decade if they do not significantly reduce greenhouse gas pollution, a new study shows, causing the world to blow past a critical warming threshold and triggering catastrophic climate impacts.

But new gas projects — launched in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting global energy crunch — would consume 10 percent of that remaining carbon budget, making it all but impossible for nations to meet the Paris agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, according to another report released Wednesday.
The Global Carbon Budget, an annual assessment of how much the world can afford to emit to stay within its warming targets, found that greenhouse gas pollution will hit a record high this year, with much of the growth coming from a 1 percent increase in carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels. Emissions in both the United States and India have increased compared to last year, while China and the European Union will probably report small declines, according to the report.

OBSERVATION – this from the COP27- more sleight of hand by the climate change cultists. By making the claim that the 1.5 deg C limit has been blown out – greenists will push for even stricter standards regardless of the impact to humans – which will be more deadly than a 1.5 degree C temperature raise.

Wuhan virus –

On Friday, the Biden regime decided to extend the COVID public health emergency again until at least April, as public health officials are preparing for another Covid surge this winter.

OBSERVATION – Its not about the virus, its all about power.

Economy –

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she is not reading too much into October’s inflation report, which showed price pressures abating faster than expected and sent markets soaring.
While the consumer price index report, which showed annual inflation slowed to 7.7%, was good news, it might not mean that inflation is now in fast retreat, she said Friday.
“I don’t know if this is a turning point,” Yellen told Reuters during an interview from India, where she was meeting with India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. “I never make more of one data point. That is one data point.”
“It was certainly nice to see an inflation report that came in on the low side of expectations rather than the high side and, you know, we’ve seen early indications along the pipeline that inflation might be diminishing,” she added.

OBSERVATION - She’s hedging her bet.

Invasion of Illegals -

The commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection is being forced out of his job as part of a larger change in top personnel at the Department of Homeland Security, according to a government source.
Chris Magnus is resisting leaving the position, after being told by Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to resign or get fired, according to the source. It comes after a record year of migrants seeking to enter the U-S along the Mexican border.
Magnus has only been on the job for about a year, and sources say he has clashed with Department of Homeland Security officials over border enforcement policy. Some of Magnus’ duties have been taken over by his deputies.

OBSERVATION - Forced out for doing his job.

Biden / Harris watch –

biden heckled at the COP27 during speech

CW2/Domestic violence –

Linn County Oregon Sheriff Michelle Duncan is making clear her office will not be enforcing Oregon’s new “high capacity” magazine ban.
The ban is part of Ballot Measure 114 which also requires Oregon residents to acquire a $65 permit in order to exercise their Second Amendment right to buy a firearm.
She added, “I want to send a clear message to Linn County residents that the Linn County Sheriff’s Office is NOT going to be enforcing magazine capacity limits.” She outlined her guiding principle, “I want to ensure anything we do or don’t do will not hinder gunowners’ rights to purchase firearms, intentionally or unintentionally.”
Duncan noted that her office is still looking at the purchase permit requirement, to ascertain their best course of action there.

OBSERVATION – Lawfare likely to put hold on the law taking effect based on recent USSC decisions of the fundamental right to keep and bare arms. But more significantly, shows red areas taking a stronger stance against oppressive laws being forced by mob rule in blue states.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., on Friday called for a delay on the Senate Republican leadership vote after expressing disappointment with the party’s performance in the midterm elections.
Rubio’s announcement sent shock waves through Washington Thursday and his move suggested current Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R, Ky., could be ousted.
“The Senate GOP leadership vote next week should be postponed,” Rubio tweeted on Friday. “First we need to make sure that those who want to lead us are genuinely committed to fighting for the priorities & values of the working Americans (of every background) who gave us big wins in states like Florida.”

Rep McCarthy is facing a similar uphill fight to speakership.

OBSERVATION – I noted this in a previous post. In the past there have been rumblings of leadership changes. This time around the threat to McConnell and McCarthy are significant as many senate and house races that could have been won saw support pulled by congressional leadership in an apparent snub of those candidates being supported by Trump. Senate and House election staffs managed to pull defeat from the jaws of victory and now the chickens are coming home to roost.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

********
Russian media continues to spin the loss of Kherson and pin blame on the MOD, avoiding including putin.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.

RUMINT –

The following sections are in the process of being restructured due to the changes in the situation on the ground. The 24 hour round up will be the main player, while the other sections will provide details and some analysis as necessary. I’ve retired several sections and have adjusted others. The adjustments are noted in the sections.

The following map link can help when I define the new sectors (as well as keep me straight)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhUi2g4XoAAAwTK?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian SF and other forces entered Kherson city early yesterday without incident and with much celebration from the liberated population of the city. Russian forces reportedly sabotaged the Antonovsky Road and Railway bridges, the Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric Dam bridge, as well as the Darevsky bridge as part of their withdrawal.

However, this and rapid advances by Ukrainian forces in the south are significant, potentially putting targets in Crimea in range of more Ukrainian rocket/missile weapons systems. The link below shows the new HIMARS line/range following Ukraine’s success in the south.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhJVX1DWQAE_fwh?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Fighting around Bakhmut was less intensive yesterday, despite reports of some Russian reinforcements or rotations in the region.

Russian shelling was mostly more sporadic across the impacted regions yesterday and has significantly reduced this week.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front —— (This sector runs south from the LOC Russian border due east of Kharkiv city to the Kreminna area, inclusive of the Svatove – Kreminna line.)

Scattered Russian ground assaults and artillery. Fighting concentrated along the LOC northwest of Svatove. All reportedly were repelled by Ukraine.

Donetsk Oblast —— (This sector runs southwest from the Kreminna area to the Donetsk Oblast boundry east of Donetsk and is inclusive of Mariupol)

As note, decreased fighting around Bahkmut but there was increased activity west - northwest of Donetsk

Zaporizhizhia Front ——— (NEW – Separated out from the general overlap of Donetsk and Crimean fronts. Consists of Zaporizhishia Oblast to the coast and is inclusive of Melitopoly)

Minor activity at Pavlivka with widely scattered and sporatic Russian artillery along the LOC

Crimean front ——— (Consists of the remaining occupied Kherson Oblast to the border of Crimea)

Ukranian forces continue to consolidate their gains. Various report of pockets of Russian soldiers that were unable to escape and are trapped. Ukrainian Military intelligence confirms control over Kherson, urges all Russian servicemen dressed in civilian clothes to surrender.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
There will be a pause in the Ukrainian offensive in the south as its forces consolidate gains and some elements are redeployed to the next area where offensive actions are contemplated.

Expect Russia to primarily expend time and effort digging in defenses for the next Ukrainian offensive action.

The HIMARS threat to Russia as a result of the withdrawal has gotten even more severe, putting key logistical supply line from Crimea via Armiansk in play (see link prior). This narrow peninsular strip of land is the only ground route into southern Ukraine. If Ukraine were to get the ATACMS long range rockets ALL of Crimea would be in play.

Russia is continuing to throw forces into the Ukrainian meat grinder in the east. Attacks are poorly supported and do not support each other.

Lacking the capability to affect the war from the ground, analysts are looking at the increased probability of a stepped up Russian missile offensive targeting Ukraine electrical grid and other key infrastructure. It is also believed that Russia will rely heavily on Iranian suppled drones for most of its attacks as the stockpile of Russian missiles has been drawn way down.

Watching closely to see if Iran starts to get its missile systems into Russia to replace its diminished supplies. Iranian resupply would be limited in that the only way to get these drones and missiles to Russia would be by air.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Belarus -

Border guard of Belarus accused Ukraine in planting mines at the border between two countries (on Ukrainian side)

Running late today.

Globalism / Great Reset –

400 - CO2 spewing private jets, took the global elite to Egypt to discuss how to restrict everyone else’s CO2 emissions.

The UK’s Daily Mail reported Monday that “officials who land a spot at the conference’s exclusive VIP restaurant will be able to dine out on an array of pricey meat and fish dishes served up during the 12-day climate conference in Sharm el-Sheikh this week. Those with a taste for the luxurious can snap up an angus beef medallion with sautéed potatoes for a pricey $100 (£90) or a creamy salmon for $40 (£35), after scoffing back a $50 (£43) seafood platter for starter.”

OBSERVATION – Hypocrisy? Off the charts. These are the same people, mind you, who want us to eat bugs. Then they also have the nerve to complain that the AC isn’t set low enough. Some animals are more equal than others.

Wuhan virus –

Kalifornia’s newscum is looking to force all grade school children to get the jab.

Yale University has issued a message to enrollees of the Spring 2023 semester. All must take a shot of the bivalent COVID-19 vaccine booster in order to attend.

OBSERVATION – With biden’s extension of the declaration of emergency for wuhan, plus the addition of the jab to the ‘recommended’ suite of vaccinations, expect more of this. Its about power people, not the virus.

Mayo Clinic has declined to consider a kidney transplant for an unvaccinated woman with stage-four kidney disease, she told Alpha News. That woman, Amy Broten, received a letter Nov. 1 informing her that her kidney transplant evaluation was denied.
“You have medical issues that need to be stabilized and/or improved prior to evaluation. The medical issues include: patient not willing to comply with the transplant team immunization requirements and recommendations,” the letter says.
Mayo Clinic said it cannot comment specifically on Broten’s case but confirmed that it requires transplant candidates to receive the COVID-19 vaccine.
“These patients have a higher risk of becoming severely ill from COVID-19. Mayo Clinic’s requirement for transplant patients follows current standards of care in accordance with national guidelines. There is also a critical shortage of lifesaving organs available,” a spokesperson said.
“Mayo Clinic takes seriously the responsibility to ensure that patients who receive an organ have the best possible outcome,” she continued. “Transplant candidates are already required to meet strict criteria, including being current on several vaccinations, undergoing preventive screenings and making healthy lifestyle changes.”

OBSERVATION – Clearly the staff at the Mayo clinic is unaware of the current status of the ‘science’ in that receiving the jab INCREASES life threatening conditions far beyond the now generally non-lethal wuhan virus. We need a Nuremburg tribunal – but won’t likely get one with progressive/Marxists in charge of the government and medical hierarchy.

Economy –

Intrigue and conspiracy are swirling around the collapse of the bit coin firm FTX. In a nutshell:
…’Crypto exchange FTX lent billions of dollars worth of customer assets to fund risky bets by its affiliated trading firm, Alameda Research, setting the stage for the exchange’s implosion, a person familiar with the matter said. … FTX Chief Executive Sam Bankman-Fried said in investor meetings this week that Alameda owes FTX about $10 billion, people familiar with the matter said.‘…(Wall Street Journal online)
FTX group has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBM), has stepped down as CEO. A new CEO has been appointed to maximize stakeholder recovery.
One of the big discussions are claims that democrats used FTX to launder 40 billion in aid to Ukraine back into its coffers via Aid for Ukraine,” which had the backing of crypto exchange FTX, staking platform Everstake and Ukraine’s Kuna exchange, will route donated crypto to the National Bank of Ukraine,. Sam Bankman-Fried was one of the largest donors of cash to Democrat candidates in the 2022 mid-term elections.
Others look at this as the beginning of the govt/WEF action to destroy crypto and force its digital currency on the country under the guise of the industry needing govt oversight to prevent such future disasters. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for crypto to be regulated after the FTX debacle.
“It shows the weaknesses of this entire sector,” Yellen told Bloomberg News on Saturday.
“In other regulated exchanges, you would have segregation of customer assets,” she said. “The notion you could use the deposits of customers of an exchange and lend them to a separate enterprise that you control to do leveraged, risky investments — that wouldn’t be something that’s allowed.”

OBSERVATION – Never let a crisis go unexploited. I’m not a crypto person, so some of this is foreign to me. But the implications towards federal control of the industry and a federal digital currency system is readily apparent, as Yellen stated above.

The U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said that the Democrats’ clinching of U.S. Senate control makes things easier for the Biden administration, but she would still like to see a debt ceiling increase approved before year-end in Congress’s post-election “lame duck” session.
Yellen told reporters on the sidelines of G20 summit meetings in Bali that Senate control by Democrats would ease the path for approving nominations and other legislative actions.
“We want to see the debt ceiling get done. If it got done in the lame duck, that would be great, as far as I’m concerned,” Yellen said.

OBSERVATION – Expect a lot of things to be pushed through in the coming months that will hammer the economy. How bold the democrats will be depend now on the outcome of the house races, having secured senate control for two more years.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Democratic Senate Majority leader, Chuck Schumer, said the midterm results showed the American people had rejected what he called the “violent rhetoric” of the Republican Party.
If the Democrats can enhance their Senate majority to 51-49, one will expect greater pressure by progressives to nuke the filibuster rule so that they can pass bills by simple majority. This will see gun control/confiscation legislation and possibly expansion of the USSC (and resulting leftist packing). This move will become even greater if the democrats some how retain control the House. At the moment Republicans stand at 211 seats (+7) and Democrats at 204 (-7) with 218 needed for a majority. Democrats are not out of it yet. Too many of the races with outcomes yet to be determined are located in California. Of the total pending races, some counts show republicans leading in only 10 of them.

OBSERVATION – Take note, democrats appear to think the ‘violent rhetoric’ (ie republicans are violent) motife/narrative is a winner and you can expect that over the next two years biden et al will take that and shift gears to a greater physical oppression of the opposition. Whether or not the general public actually sees that as the issue is unknown – but democrats are ramping it up as their mandate from the election. Red states had better start girding themselves for more potential direct conflict with DC.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Republicans lost the attempt to control the Senate with the Nevada vote. In fact, if republicans loose Georgia, democrats will have increased their control by one.

The republicans in the house are still 7 seats shy of control, with 20 or so outstanding races still too close to call.

The democrats claim the best midterm performance of the party in power in 20 years. The red wave became in part a blue wave.

There appears to be a groundswell of support to replace McConnel as the party leader in the senate. House republicans too, show growing dissatisfaction with McCarthy and promise a challenge to his leadership as well.

OBSERVATION – I held weakly to hopes that this election would be free of the overt stealing that was 2020. Nope, the democrats seamlessly transitioned their methods to hit key state races. That and complacent republican leadership (or rather lack thereof) in the house and senate has laid the path for further destruction of the American way.
The saying that is increasingly gaining credibility in my book is that “you can’t vote your way out of tyrrany” – sad statement on the current state of the nation.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

********

Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson City has ignited an ideological fracture between pro-war figures and Russian President Vladimir Putin, eroding confidence in Putin’s commitment and ability to deliver his war promises. The ever-increasing doubts among extreme Russian nationalists about Putin’s commitment to Russian ideology is reducing Putin’s appeal to the nationalist community, while mobilization and high casualties will likely continue to upset members of Russian society.
Wagner-affiliated channels are also turning on the Kremlin following the loss of Kherson, which contrasts with the general support for the decision among the milblogger community before today & may further elevate the influence of the siloviki faction.

OBSERVATION – Politics at the Kremlin over the course of the war is becoming even more bitter. Wagner and Chechen forces have had putins support – simply to keep them at bay. Now the fight is getting closer to putin himself. Already Wagner has started to create a military structure that could challenge the Russian military in places like Belgrod and others. Threats to putin’s power are rising and will he be able to survive this knife fight?

Logistics –
- The Russian air force had about 1,500 helicopters when Russia invaded Ukraine. Most (74 percent) were older transport helicopters though many were recent versions of the Cold War era Mi-8 transports and Mi-24 gunships. This helicopter force seemed formidable but the Russians had a shortage of pilots and maintainers.
The new Russian helicopters did not do well. The KA-52 gunship (introduced in 2011) was thought to be well equipped to handle modern portable anti aircraft missiles like the American Stinger. The Americans had updated the Stinger more than the anti-missile defenses of the Ka-52 could handle. Transport helicopters were even more vulnerable. After eight months of combat Russia had lost nearly a hundred helicopters, mainly to ground fire. There were also losses due to accidents and mechanical failures. It was obvious that the most modern Russian designs were not up to the demands of combat against well-equipped opponents.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- Russian military officers may be attempting to limit the cost of force generation by manufacturing justifications to avoid giving soldiers promised payments and benefits.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian counteroffensives continue to make ground and consolidate positions in and around Kherson
Fighting intensified again in the southeast around Bakhmut and to its northeast around Soledar yesterday, with some very fierce fighting again reported. Reinforced Russian units launched coordinated offensives and the region was heavily shelled, but Ukrainian forces continue to hold their lines and repel most attacks.

Russia reports some success at Opytne in the south, pushing through defensive positions with reports of Russian air support there.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front —— (This sector runs south from the LOC Russian border due east of Kharkiv city to the Kreminna area, inclusive of the Svatove – Kreminna line.)
NSR

Russia attempted to counter attack northeast of Svatov and west of Kreminna but failed.

Donetsk Oblast —— (This sector runs southwest from the Kreminna area to the Donetsk Oblast boundry east of Donetsk and is inclusive of Mariupol)

It seems like what is left of Russian artillery is focusing on the LOC in support of Russian attacks around Bakhumt

Zaporizhizhia Front ——— (NEW – Separated out from the general overlap of Donetsk and Crimean fronts. Consists of Zaporizhishia Oblast to the coast and is inclusive of Melitopoly)
Widely scattered Russian artillery fire along the LOC.

Crimean front ——— (Consists of the remaining occupied Kherson Oblast to the border of Crimea)
Ukraine continues to consolidate and clear areas gained.
Explosions were reported in Skadovsk, Kherson region – HIMARS likely at it again.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Ukraine continues to consolidate its gains and is likely planning their next offensive.
Russia will continue to throw troops at Ukrainian defenses in the east to try to capture tactically insignificant objectives.

RUSSIA’S Next Moves -
First and foremost, Russia does not have the forces available to conduct any credible offensive (contrary to what some may say on FR). Its losses of officers/NCOs, turmoil at the general staff level, destruction/abandonment of thousands and thousands of vehicles/armor/tanks with no equivalent resupply in the near term along with Ukranian effective interdiction has It stuck in the Ukrainian mud.

So what is Russia trying to do to win this ‘war’.
1. It is increasingly evident that Russia is trying to prepare defensive positions and shorten supply lines before the winter hits.
2. Russia continues to try to mobilize and equip replacements for the tens (hundreds) of thousands of deaths and causalities it has suffered.

It seems that part of this strategy is based on the thought that Ukraine will suspend its operations for the winter, giving Russia some breathing room to reorganize and re-equip its forces as well as bring replacements on line.

How well will this likely work? I think Russia misjudges a lot.
First, with frozen ground, Ukraine can resume much of its mobile warfare tactics.
Second Ukraine has openly stated it will pursue the attack in the winter.
Third, Ukraine military will be better equipped and supplied to execute the war in the winter than Russia. This winter could bring a repeat of the lack of cold weather gear Russian forces faced at the start of war in February.
Fourth, Russia’s pull back from Kherson has exposed even more occupied territory to Ukrainian HIMARS and other systems, making Russia logistic support already damaged by the hit on the Kerch Bridge and other supply routes even more of a headache. (see yesterday’s post with map showing new HIMARS influence zone)
And fifth (though not final by any means) will be the internal power plays between the MOD and outside mercenaries (Wagner and Chechen). Any attempt to build up supplies for any future offensive (or just to hold off another Ukrainian offensive) will be challenged by Wagner et al for diversion to their continued unorganized attacks in the east. Their claims of victories in the east are largely for public consumption to get them leverage for more resources.

Bottom line, in the near term Russian is digging itself into a deeper hole, both figuratively and literally. They have totally lost all initiative in the conflict and are taking steps to delay the eventual further defeats. Whether or not putin realizes this is hard to say. His political life rests on keeping the ultra nationalists on his side or at least at bay. He has no game changers on the conventional warfare angle. His nuclear ploy could change the battlefield equation for a limited period, but would risk expansion of the war with direct NATO involvement – and the resulting demolition of his forces in Ukraine.

Hopefully, tomorrow I’ll be able to outline potential roads forward for Ukraine.

Belarus -

RUMORS that Russia is pulling out all its S300/S400 ADA missile batteries out of the country. Most probably for redeployment to Ukraine and most likely Crimea.

Iran -

Protests are down in portions of Iran but still strong in the northwestern half of the country.

The Biden administration’s negotiations over a revamped version of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal are dead as the result of massive anti-regime protests that have swept across the Islamic Republic, according to the former Trump administration’s State Department spokeswoman.
“I don’t see any room or any space for [the administration] to build back into” the long-stalled negotiations, Morgan Ortagus, who served under former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, said during a panel discussion Friday afternoon at the Richard Nixon Foundation’s Grand Strategy Summit in Washington, D.C. “It would be a political disaster in the U.S. and a disaster for the people of Iran who are rejecting this regime.”
How could the Biden administration “financially empower the very oppressors of the women and teenagers we’re supposed to be standing up for and standing with?” Ortagus asked.

OBSERVATION – In the long run, this is what Iran wants – no international agreement with meddling inspectors and unified sanctions. Just the past few months have revealed increased economic (and likely technological exchanges) with Russia and China. Iran likely will double down on development of a nuclear bomb – prime part of its global power goal. First to take out Israel, second to take control of the middle east (and its oil) and finally bring the “Great Satan” the US to heel.

New week, what mayhem awaits us?

Economy –

Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve to keep rates high in 2023 as inflation remains strong after peaking in the fourth quarter of this year.
“The U.S. economy just skirts recession in 2023, but the landing doesn’t feel so soft as job growth slows meaningfully and the unemployment rate continues to rise,” the report said, predicting a 0.5% expansion next year. U.S. core inflation is expected to fall to 2.9% at end-2023.
“The cumulative effect of tight policy in 2023 spills over into 2024, resulting in two very weak years,” the report added.

OBSERVATION – This is an example of the kind of reports that have been circulating out there predicting a shallow to nonexistent recession for the US. You don’t crash the inflation rate from its current highs to the 2.9 range in such a short period – never been done with out a significant recession. With weakness across the whole spectrum of the economy, I think folks like Morgan Stanley are working with out dated models that don’t factor the reality in accurately.

The crash of FTX is rippling across other similar crypto markets. Hong Kong based AAX crypto exchange today suddenly announced the suspension of all operations, including trading, withdrawals, etc - promise that they will try to restart everything in 7-10 days.

OBSERVATION – Crypto must be either destroyed or forced into govt regulation in order for the govt mandated digital currencies to take hold. Govt can’t stand competition. The attack on exchanges is only the beginning, soon the different currencies themselves will face steeper assault. This developing crisis could be setting the stage for a new currency, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) .

Congressional Democratic leaders on Sunday vowed to tackle the nation’s debt ceiling in coming weeks, saying their party’s election victories offer them leverage even as Republicans have promised a potentially explosive fight.
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said they would act while President Joe Biden’s fellow Democrats control both chambers.
“Our best shot, I think, is ... to do it now,” Pelosi told ABC News’ “This Week” program. “Winning the Senate gave us a lot of leverage for how we go forward... in the lame duck,” she said.

OBSERVATION – More pork, more damage to the economy.

The Damocles Sword of a rail strike is still dangling over the heads of the American economy now in the post midterm era. SMART-TD Alternate National Legislative Director Jared Cassity told reporters that the frustration level among railroad workers is high due to intervention by Congress. He added that the current deal may not survive a vote by the union. Cassity stated that the likelihood of a strike is still in the realm of possibility.

President Biden announced a supplemental rule cracking down on methane emissions targeting the oil and gas industry at the same time that Biden is pressuring energy companies to lower prices at the pump. The new rule requires all drilling sites, including smaller wells, to find and plug methane leaks.

OBSERVATION - These rules come at a price that is eventually seen at the pump. This rule will also start forcing smaller companies out of the market due to excessive regulatory costs for compliance – further reducing production.

Biden / Harris watch –

Huge rumors surround biden and his 2024 plans. Many still don’t see him making it to the elections and are speculating on what might happen to shift the power around. One rumor is that biden will replace Kamala Harris with Gavin Newsom and then resign. This is considered to be a wild, outside the envelope move – to dump a colored woman for a rich white guy.

CW2/Domestic violence –

In an op-ed published by the New York Times, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is calling on her party to get “aggressive” towards Republicans after a disappointing senate race for the GOP.

OBSERVATION – I’m not going to waste endangered electrons on most of her claims. What is important is the continued rhetoric we see from the left that promotes a level of violence towards the right. Her verbiage is carefully tailored to be that of a political type, however, the hard core followers will skip over that part. Heard on a podcast recently that democrats consider violence like they do a thermostat, dialing it up or down as needed. This has been very evident and true the last few years.

Though generally filed under culture related ‘wars’, the current hyper-radical and locally violent transgender movement is taking charge at warp speed. On Nov. 2, 2022, Gary Bauer wrote this in his Campaign for Working Families: End of Day Report:
• “The Biden Administration and congressional Democrats are pushing legislation and regulation that gives trans ideology supremacy over everything, including religious liberty.”
• “If you have a religious objection to the bizarre idea that your biology can be ‘changed’ or ‘fixed,’ the left is going to smash you using the full power of government and social media censorship.”

OBSERVATION - Essentially, Bauer said if you believe there are only two genders for religious reasons, you should know that Democrats believe trans ideology is more important than religious freedom, and they will not hesitate to use the power of the govt against you. Add to it all the other things the govt will use its full force upon the citizens on, then the potential for conflict between the citizens and govt rise proportionately as citizens refuse to grant govt to revoke their rights and govt looses the consent of the governed.
We also see Antifa et al, gluing itself in support of the trans movement like white on rice. This creates a two front attack on citizens.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The republicans are coming closer to eeking out a slight majority in the House, at a level far below what preelection polls indicated. The Senate is on track to see a net gain in democrats.

OBSERVATION – Republicans have a very short window to get their act together on new leadership in both houses. What democrats would love to see going into 2024 is an internal civil war within the republican party with would help them immensely on the presidential side.

The House is scheduled to vote on 31 legislative items this week under suspension of the rules. Since the Republicans are likely to take control of the House in January, Democrats are under pressure to pass FY2023 spending bills and enact the party’s legislative priorities. Congress is facing a 16 December deadline to fund the government.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

A Middlesex County, New Jersey, man was arrested today for transmitting via the internet a manifesto containing threats to attack a synagogue and Jewish people, U.S. Attorney Philip R. Sellinger announced. Omar Alkattoul, 18, of Sayreville, New Jersey, was arrested this morning and is charged by complaint with one count of transmitting a threat in interstate and foreign commerce on or about Nov. 1, 2022. He is scheduled to appear this afternoon before U.S. Magistrate Judge Jessica S. Allen in Newark federal court.
“No one should be targeted for violence or with acts of hate because of how they worship,” U.S. Attorney Sellinger said. “According to the complaint, this defendant used social media to send a manifesto containing a threat to attack a synagogue based on his hatred of Jews.

OBSERVATION – The threat from Islamic radicals – one that triggered the origin of the “Threat Matrix” title thread so many years ago is still alive and well. Given the lawless turmoil and diversion of anti-terror assets to the pseudo threat of white, Christian nationalist domestic terrorism will permit these Islamic groups to grow and strengthen. This guy was just stupid enough to announce himself – many, many more operate in the shadows.

China –

Biden is holding his first face-to-face meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping since he became president. This face-to-face meeting between the American and Chinese leaders has partly been set up for the “optics”, says an expert on Asian politics - but at the same time, the talks are “not entirely meaningless”.
For both men, the main purpose of the meeting is to not look “weak” on the world stage, says Prof Pierre Landry from the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

OBSERVATION – Xi is feeling confident in his powers, leaving the country when in the past he refused – fearing possible coups.

China’s mega-city of Guangzhou, which became the “epicenter” of the current Chinese coronavirus outbreak this week, announced on Thursday it would shutter schools and universities.
Several other cities posted record-high daily infections, including Beijing. Although the Chinese Communist Party has admitted no errors with its heavy-handed “zero-Covid” lockdown policies, health officials rushed to reassure the public that some draconian restrictions would be lifted and citywide lockdowns would be avoided.
China’s state-run Global Times fumbled to explain the “complicated and severe epidemic situation” in Guangzhou, where the “source of some sporadic positive cases was not clear,” “the risk of community transmission was high,” and “infections have now burst out in multiple points.”
“After China shortened the quarantine period for people entering the country from overseas to ‘7+3’ days in the middle of this year, some voices attributed the latest surge in Guangzhou infections to the border entry measures, arguing that it would be better to extend the quarantine time,” the Global Times wrote.

OBSERVATION – China continues to shoot itself in the foot with its zero-Covid policy. Damaging its economy and angering the citizenry. However, barring a vicious coup, Xi has established himself in the leadership seat and these lock downs no longer concern him as he focuses on preparations for war.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

********
Russian Foreign Ministry will not accept any conditions for talks with Ukraine, including withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, - deputy FM of Russia Hrushko
NOTE – This is one of the items that has seen a lot of rumors following the Kherson pullout.

After Wagner mercenaries made an ISIS-style execution video, Evgeny Prigozhin has threatened his fellow Russian elites, hinting they are next. Knives are out as the power play continues between Wagner and MOD.

Kerch Bridge update –
Per Russian state media, repair work (and a partial reopening) of the dropped outside lanes should be finished by December, with a full resumption of traffic expected by next March. The bridge should reopen at half capacity utilizing the new sections on December 20th, with the inner sections undergoing replacement until March.
NOTE – Vehicle side of the bridge system. No (or very little) truck traffic projected. The rail bridge portion still remains out of commission – the bigger hit to Russian resupply/logistics.

RUMINT –
Some say Putin likely elevated Russian Army General Sergey Surovikin to theatre commander and let him withdraw from western Kherson on condition that he take the rest of Donetsk Oblast using Russian forces recouped from western Kherson as well as newly-arriving mobilized servicemen.

Logistics –
- The Kherson withdrawl has permitted Russia to redesignate priorities to the east and potential development of a Ukrainian offensive southward out of Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- Russian forces and occupation officials are forcibly mobilizing men in Russian-occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, and forcing them to construct trenches and defensive fortifications in the city

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.

RUMINT –
Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces are withdrawing from the left bank of the Dnipro River and concentrating forces and equipment in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, and Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting increased west of Kreminna and was intensive again east of Bakhmut. Russian contractors reportedely continue to take significant losses in this region despite recent rotations and reinforcements.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove. This follows other reports of the same.

Russian shelling was heavy in the Sumy region, near Kharkiv, north of Donetsk and around Bakhmut. In most other impacted regions shelling was mostly more sporadic.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front —— (This sector runs south from the LOC Russian border due east of Kharkiv city to the Kreminna area, inclusive of the Svatove – Kreminna line.)
See 24 hr summary

Donetsk Oblast —— (This sector runs southwest from the Kreminna area to the Donetsk Oblast boundry east of Donetsk and is inclusive of Mariupol)
See 24 hr summary

Zaporizhizhia Front ——— (NEW – Separated out from the general overlap of Donetsk and Crimean fronts. Consists of Zaporizhishia Oblast to the coast and is inclusive of Metropole)
NSR

Crimean front ——— (Consists of the remaining occupied Kherson Oblast to the border of Crimea)
Ukraine is working to reestablish vandalized utilities and communications in Kherson urban area. Arrests of Russian soldiers in civilian clothes continues. Ukraine’s art’y hits troop concentration in cross-river strikes on Dnipriany, Novooleksiivka and Kairy.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Russia still trying to pull the pieces together while Ukraine plans for its next operation to maintain the initiative it has.

The Ukrainians will likely use combat power recouped from the liberation of western Kherson to reinforce their ongoing counter-offensive in Luhansk Oblast or to open a new counter-offensive drive elsewhere. Where will it strike next?

1. Some popular talk is that Ukraine should continue the attack across the Dnipir River. The ultimate goal would be a run on Crimea that the Russians greatly fear. This is seriously flawed on many levels. The first being the significant barrier the river creates in the first place. Ukraine exploited that fact through its attacks on bridges – essentially isolating the Russian forces and leading to their eventual rapid retreat rather than losing a substantial portion of its army. A river crossing of that magnitude is beyond their capability. They may potentially attempt a crossing at the dam on the upstream end, but will need a month or more to repair the destroyed sections to make them capable to handle the weight of combat equipment.

A corollary is the suggestion that Ukraine launch an amphibious assault on a small spit of land directly south of Kherson city and flank the Russian defenses on the south. This fails due to the logistics necessary and poor conditions necessary for a successful attack.
I think overall Ukraine will maintain a threat of further operations in order to freeze Russian forces to prevent a quick run into Crimea.

2. Another failed idea is for Ukraine to attack into Russia. This is failed because it takes away its stated goal of liberating Ukrainian territory. It can extend control with its long range fire capability, no need to actually take ground.

3. Accelerate the offensive in the east. This is a practical redeployment as it is appearing that Russia may be reevaluating its efforts to take the Donbas region using forces redeployed from the Kherson region. A continued push towards Svatove and Kreminna would seriously impact resupply to the Donbas effort from the north. Once solidly connected to the region’s North-South highway network, it could swing southward and pressure Russian forces to defend captured territory in Luhask Oblast – coming in behind Russian defenses again.

4. Attack southward from . This has a whole lot of plusses behind it. Centrally located for the logistics tail necessary with a good North – South road network leading to the rail hub of Metropole. If they could push to the sea, Ukraine could then pivot east or west. A pivot west would endanger Crimea again and could (emphasis could) be supported by a limited river crossing attempt at the Dnipir. Limited resupply would come into play and Russia would be faced with fighting a two direction war as the initial offensive would flank the Russian defenses along the Dnipir. A pivot east would threaten Russian forces trying to take Donbas and cause another two front assault - from the west and north.

What to do, what to do. Cant read minds, but Russia seems concerned about #4 as it is being reported that evacuated Kherson forces are being redeployed in the Metropole and Ukrainian civilians being forced to construct defensive positions. Russia is also fixed on trying to breath life into the Donbas assault.

I would also expect that Ukraine will continue to nail Russian supply lines coming from Crimea to keep the force weakened.

Finally, I expect to see Ukraine beefing up the east as it appears that Russia is desperate to resume its Donbas campaign – driven by Wagner and Chechen elements. The ability of Russia to launch a successful campaign is minimal and would likely run into the same meat grinder they’ve been facing for the past nine months, while fearing a pivot south from Svatove.

Pakistan -

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan called on his supporters to resume his Haqiqi Azadi protest march on the Pakistani capital of Islamabad. “I will not back off as long as I’m alive,” Khan said, indicating that he would join his supporters in the city of Rawalpindi while pursuing early elections.

OBSERVATION- Things there are still teetering on the edge of a civil war within a nuclear armed country.

Israel –

See Syrian airstrikes below.

Iran -

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Monday morning heavily bombarded bases and headquarters of Kurdish opposition parties in the Kurdistan Region, using suscide drones, Fatah rocket and heavy artillery. Kurdish casualties were confirmed

“The IRGC’s attacks will continue until the terrorist groups are disarmed.” - Commander of Hamza Seyyed al-Shohada (AS). “ In today’s operation, we targeted the militants’ headquarters with missiles and suicide and combat drones. We also targeted the border headquarters with artillery.”

OBSERVATION – One of the scape goats of the ongoing protests in Iran are the Kurdisn people. The woman who’s death triggered the riots was a Kurd and the heaviest rioting has occurred in northwestern Iran adjacent to Iraqi’s Kurdistan region.

A court in Tehran on Sunday handed down what is believed to be the first death sentence relating to the anti-government protests that have gripped parts of the country for almost two months.
According to a report by a news agency affiliated to the regime’s judiciary, the Revolutionary Court on Tehran sentenced to death a person – no name or gender given – accused of setting fire to a government facility.

OBSERVATION – With more to come. What they forget is that they create martyrs with this kind of policy – you can only kill martyr once.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Aerospace Commander Amir Ali Hajzadeh said the military has finished construction of a hypersonic ballistic missile capable of maneuvering in and out of the atmosphere and would be utilized to target the “advanced anti-missile systems” utilized by Iran’s enemies.

OBSERVATION – Wasn’t but a few years ago the Iranian capability to produce its own weapons systems was considered a joke – crude copies of western hand me downs. Since then Iran has made great strides towards creating quality systems. We have been seeing some of this as their drone technology starts to take center stage. A hypersonic warhead would be a big step, but step back and consider the technology. A standard warhead is already a ‘hypersonic’ system. What Iran may be accomplishing is a MIRV – like system that permits the warhead a degree of maneuverability. Thus Iran is likely overstating its achievement for propaganda purposes. But I wouldn’t underestimate some of its technology development at the moment.

Iraq -

See Iranian attack in the Kurdistan region above.

Syria -

A string of explosions hit the Shayrat Airbase (SE. Homs) after it was bombed by Israel forces overnight. Apparently, ammo depots were targeted. Secondaries & fires were reported ongoing in the aftermath.

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