Still slightly dazed over the election results. Didn’t build my hopes up for the red tsunami but clearly didn’t expect the implosion that occurred.
Even here in the deep red Redoubt state of Montana things got tense as it appeared it would allow its new congressional district to fall to a democrat. Currently Zinke (R) has a 4% lead over Trannel with 66% of precincts reporting. Early results from the liberal enclaves of Bozangelas (Bozeman MT) and Missoulafornia (Missoula MT) put Trannel up early.
Invasion of Illegals -
The US Department of Homeland Security wants to deport the illegal immigrant accused of assaulting House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband with a hammer.
However, San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins said Thursday that she will refuse to turn the suspect over to ICE officials citing the San Francisco’s sanctuary city policies which ban departments and officials from assisting immigration officers with detentions or deportations.
Jenkins said in a statement hours after US Immigration and Customs Enforcement publicly disclosed the hold on David DePape, “San Francisco is a sanctuary city and our policy is sacred.”
She added, “We will not be collaborating or coordinating with ICE.”
OBSERVATION – Was wondering when this conflict would raise its head.
Biden / Harris watch –
A ‘lid’ was called on biden as election results were being tallied. As noted later, it appears that biden will come out of this politically stronger.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Portland Police are patrolling downtown after Antifa announced midterm riot plans on Twitter targeting office of Rene for Portland. Three militants in black bloc have reportedly been arrested already. Antifa are telling comrades to come prepared.
OBSERVATION – Portland and in particular down town businesses, were already fearing an outbreak of violence. So far action has been limited and virtually nothing similar happening anywhere else in the nation.
The unanticipated split decision from yesterday’s voting is not going to stabilize the red-blue split in the country, but will likely encourage the blue to double down on its violent rhetoric towards the right. With that, red will double down its resistance to the left’s agenda. Political violence can easily be increased as a result. Thus the next two years will be even more perilous now than ever. Will be assessing this even more as the week progresses.
See Political Front for more of my views.
POLITICAL FRONT –
I won’t go too far into the disastrous results for the republicans. There were a few bright spots but overall, the performance was over sold and underwhelming. The pundits on both sides will be bleating about this for some weeks to come.
One component that many on the right though was outlandish was the blatant, over the top claims that our ‘democracy’ will fall if the red wave materializes and life as we know it will end. Is it possible that democrat polling noted that such a doomsday message will strike a good target? Some already note that gen Z may have responded in turnout, swaying the vote. IDK, but the unity in message may have gone beyond an act of desperation.
Biden’s doomday message – if a valid contributor to democrats dodging the apparent red wave, may severely limit Trump’s aspirations for reelection. This destroys common sense given that during this election cycle he continued to draw mammoth crowds and will likely continue if he runs for president. However, presidential campaign dynamics are different in many ways from local election dynamics. The fallout from the mids need to be thoroughly scrubbed to sort out.
There were the standard questionable voting reports. Pushback from 2020 did seal some of the gaps, while now alert republicans closely monitored other areas of cheating. With dawn’s light irregularities and cheating may become more apparent.
At best, republicans will take control of the house and remain split in the Senate. This will increase the partisan fighting in Congress to the next higher level and constipate much of the left’s political agenda.
I expect to see the knives come out for republican congressional leadership such as McConnell who are seen as snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in how they withdrew support for candidates just because Trump endorsed them.
The left, OTOH was already preparing to double down its efforts to shove its agenda down the throats of Americans as the minority party. Now that they are not the minority many thought they would be at this stage will embolden them even more.
The fighting in congress will also tie their hands to a degree in their opposition to biden, who I fully expect will double down on EO’s and administrative / regulatory actions to bypass congress even more to push his agenda through. Delay, obfuscate and ignore any congressional efforts to the contrary – something democrats have honed to a very sharp edge over the years.
At this stage of the election returns - biden appears to have strengthened his position as the leader of the democrat party rather than folding and facing forced removal.
China –
As noted yesterday, the number of Chinese aircraft into Taiwan’s ADZ was unusual. 63 planes was record number of aircraft.
North/South Korea –
Overnight NK launched a SRBM, the first for several days. The SRBM flew 290 km at apogee of 30 km at top speed of Mach 6
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russia appears to be focusing more on a missile campaign targeting electrical infrastructure to stress Ukraine as winter approaches.
Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
********
In previous posts, I’ve noted the intelligence and reporting by Russian milbloggers. They have known for spreading propaganda on Russian ‘successes’, but have also opened a window to Russian failures. Along with Wagner Group and Chechen mercenary leaders – they have driven the nationalist push behind putin. As such they shouldn’t be automatically ruled out – especially when their posts see support from other sources.
The Russian MoD has remained remarkably tight-lipped about milblogger critiques of Russian failures throughout the war in Ukraine — unlike the Kremlin, which will occasionally indirectly address milblogger narratives. The MoD’s public response to milblogger outcry indicates that some Russian milbloggers have considerable leverage to shape MoD interactions in the information space and additionally suggests that the situation in Pavlivka is dire enough to warrant a response.
OSINT is multidimensional in sources and evaluation of those sources for accuracy. It is foolish to issue a blanket discount of Russian sources without evaluation of just what they are saying and if there is evidence to back up their reporting. That is something I keep in mind. The Pavlivka attack is one such event.
Logistics –
- RUMINT. Sky News reports Russia flew €140m in cash and a selection of captured UK and US weapons to Iran in return for dozens of deadly drones for its war in Ukraine, a security source has claimed.
- Iranian state-run outlet Nour News Agency reported that Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev arrived in Tehran on November 8, likely to discuss the potential sale of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues to be significant east of Bakhmut and north of Donetsk, with the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south around Kherson made gains yesterday. Russian shelling was mostly more sporadic in all impacted areas yesterday.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Widely scattered Russian artillery strikes.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
More Russian attacks in the Bakhmut region reported repulsed by Ukraine.
Donetsk Oblast ——
More fighting northeast of Donetsk with some supporting artillery fire. Additional Russian attacks against Pavlivka.
Crimean front ———
Ukrainian forces have liberated Snihurivka in Kherson Oblast, likely triggering Russia to blow up several bridges to the south of the city that cross a southward flowing small tributary of the Dnipir. The bridge destruction may indicate that Russia is facing being overrun or just spooked by the attack.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Missile attack alerts nationwide as I type this morning.
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Nov 7th for Kherson has come and gone. However there may be hints that Ukraine is stepping up its offensive with the capture of Snihurivka. RUMINT that Russian forces may be on the verge of another panicked retreat given that Russia has put the untrained conscripts on the front while withdrawing its higher quality troops. The next few day could clarify things.
Otherwise, no significant changes foreseen ( but can change, given the dynamics of the war so far).
Russian attacks against Pavlivka, in the face of the debacle of the 155th continues to point to Russia’s desire to get Ukrainian artillery systems far enough away from rail lines that can be used to get men and munitions to the southern front until the Kersch Bridge can be restored. However, Russian forces are so depleted that there is very little chance of success. The 155th (and the supporting 40th) were some of their better manned and equipped units. Now Russia is stuck with far less capable units backfilled with untrained forced conscripts.
Israel –
See Syria on airstrike –
Within the past three years, F-35Is of Israel Air Force have conducted tens of airstrikes against IRGC backed proxies in eastern Syria. Tonight’s airstrike aims to disrupt plans of Iran’s Islamic Regime for sending weapons & fuel to Lebanon’s Hezbollah via Al-Qaim.
Iran -
See Syria on probable IAF airstrike on a convoy to supply Hezebollah in Lebanon
Protests continue throughout the country. Iran carried out the first executions of two people in Zahedan against the backdrop of protests.
The European Union is considering expanding sanctions against Iran and coordinating them with other countries in response to Iran’s supplying weapons to Russia to be used against Ukraine.
Syria -
A suspected Israeli airstrike hit a convoy of trucks that had just entered Syria from Iran enroute to Lebanon.
Though not confirmed by Israel, it appears IAF targeted a convoy of trucks belonging to IRGC affiliated Hashd al-Shaabi (PMU) near Al-Bukamal, Deir Ez Zor (close to Iraq-Syria border). Several militants have lost their lives. One of these trucks was suspected to be carrying missiles.
OBSERVATION - Iran may have tried this convoy action because Israel has gotten very good at interdicting anything flown into Damascus. just shows that Israeli intel continues to be very good and timely.
The country is at a greater danger today as a result of Tuesday - from both domestic sources as well as international ones.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Workers in Belgium and Greece took to the streets in a general strike citing increased consumer prices and cost of living. The demonstrations quickly led to violence as thousands of protestors from national workers’ unions marched in the Greek cities of Thessaloniki and Athens with groups of protestors throwing Molotov cocktails and rocks at police. General strikes in Greece and Belgium caused significant disruptions to transportation sectors, leaving public transportation systems at a standstill, and causing the cancelation of 60% of flights to and from Brussels.
OBSERVATION – France and Britain are facing similar issues. Believe it or not this feeds into the GGR goals to ‘reset’ the economies. Create the problem and be the solution. Hegelian dialectic at work.
Wuhan virus –
The World Health Organization chief on Wednesday said a nearly 90% drop in recent COVID-19 deaths globally compared to nine months ago provides “cause for optimism,” but still urged vigilance against the pandemic as variants continue to crop up.
Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that last week just over 9,400 deaths linked to the coronavirus were reported to the WHO. In February of this year, he said, weekly deaths had topped 75,000 globally.
OBSERVATION – Those variants are in no way even close to the lethality of the original virus (if we can consider that by itself – especially since those death numbers have been intentially inflated).
Economy –
Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released today shows an annualized rate of inflation at 7.7%, and a month-over-month price for everyday goods including gasoline, groceries and rents, rose 0.4% in October from the previous month.
OBSERVATION – While this number is lower, the cumulative effect of the high inflation being experienced is still significant. We are not out of the woods by any means. Rule of thumb I read is that it takes Fed interest rate changes about 6 months to amble through the economy. Real economic dynamics operate on a much shorter time loop. Black swan events can throw the whole cycle off in an instant. JP Morgan analysts write “Our view is that we have entered a period of greater volatility of growth, inflation and markets, with shorter and faster economic cycles.”
The continued push by the Fed to raise interest rates, with its 6 month delay, could create unforeseen other unintended consequences in the economy. This is already evident from economic ripples coming out of the collapse of the housing and mortgage markets.
OBSERVATION – Yes, there is still a lot of gloom in analysts reviews of the status of the economy. I’ve posted before that we are in a zone of inflection, potentially on the edge of a cliff. Too many sectors are on shaky legs as it is with inflation, supply issues, manpower etc. These factors are just not really addressed by brute force prime rate changes by the Fed.
Turmoil in post- midterms congress about to get real as the 16 December deadline to pass another Continuing Resolution. “What’s most important to me about Congress for the next two months is that they avoid turning the national debt into some kind of hostage… This is a fragile moment in financial markets,” former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said.
OBSERVATION - Not sure how the outgoing congress is going to work thru this. I think the democrat, buoyed by their relatively success effort to stave off the red wave may be feeling their oats and try to force measures that are repugnant to republicans – forcing a shut down. Alternatively, they may just do another short CR and put the thing in the lap of the republicans – giving them room to sabotage it and blame the republicans.
According to the latest estimate from the Energy Information Administration, consumers who rely on heating oil should expect to pay 45% more than last winter. This is nearly double last month’s projected increase of 27%. Stockpiles in the Northeast are currently a third of typical levels.
OBSERVATION – Increased costs just from this sector have yet to be really seen in the CPI.
Still hanging out there is the threat of a rail road strike. However, execution of such a strike has been pushed back to early December, as four major unions have agreed to coordinate the date on which they could potentially go on strike.
The third-largest railroad union, the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employe Division, had been prepared to strike as soon as November 20, the Sunday before Thanksgiving. But the group announced Wednesday that is has agreed to extend negotiations with the railroads until at least December 4, the deadline set by another union, the Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen. The rank and file members of both unions have rejected the tentative agreements reached with the railroads in September, mostly over the lack of sick pay in the contracts.
A strike by any one rail union would lead to a shutdown of America’s major freight railroads, as all the other unions, even those that have ratified contracts, would honor the picket lines. That could cause severe economic problems, as 30% of America’s freight moves by rail, when measured by weight and distance traveled.
OBSERVATION - As I noted on my comments concerning the CPI above, an extended strike could kick the legs out from under any relief from inflation by creating critical shortages quickly and thus driving prices skyward.
Biden / Harris watch –
From biden’s victory lap news conference yesterday – some very concerning comments
NOTE – These observations/comments are also applicable to the CW2 area as well.
“Our intention is to run again,” says Pres Biden, adding that his guess is that it’ll be “early next year” when he & his family make that decision. He says he doesn’t feel rushed to decide, no matter what Trump does.
OBSERVATION – Have his handlers reassessed his status as a boat anchor to the democrat party? Tuesday’s results do infer he came out of the elections in a stronger position than going into it.
Biden asked what happens if Trump runs again:
“We just have to demonstrate that he will not take power if he does run, by making sure under the legitimate efforts under the Constitution that he doesn’t become president again.”
OBSERVATION – This is one of the potentially scary parts. Under the constitution there are no provisions that biden can cite to prevent Trump from becoming president (under the assumption he wins). The only provisions are for Trump to be found guilty of a crime that disqualifies him from running. That means biden could well fire up the DoJ/FBI efforts to find some kind of charges they can fix on Trump and get a conviction.
As I’ve noted before, if the DoJ/FBI continues in its trend of making show arrests – they will likely cross over a red line and provoke kinetic action from elements of the right. That in turn will give the govt more reason to crack down on the right – a foundation already laid from govt policy and bidens Hitlerian speeches of late.
President Biden said Wednesday that he won’t change a thing about how he runs the country over the next two years in his first public comments since his fellow Democrats outperformed expectations in Tuesday’s midterm elections. “Nothing,” Biden said when asked what he planned to do differently over the next two years ahead of a potential 2024 reelection bid, “because they’re just finding out what we’re doing. The more they know about what we’re doing, the more support there is.”
OBSERVATION – Biden is taking the results as a renewed mandate to keep doing the same disastrous policies that have wreaked havoc over our country since he came to office. Much of what he has done has been via EOs and regulatory work arounds to avoid the log jam in congress. This will get worse with the switch of the house to republican control. (if republicans gain ‘control’ in the senate as well, it is unreliable due to the RINO democrat collaborators in the party). He further has far less fear of impeachment with the greatly reduced red ‘wave’ and may operate more freely in opposition to congress and the laws of the land.
CW2/Domestic violence –
See biden’s comments above – particularly those addressed to prevent Trump from running (or attaining ) for president and the continuation of policies that have degraded this nation.
Antifa is still angry in Portland as one of their favored commissioners was voted out of office, generating cries for vengeance. No clear reports on how much damage was caused since the election, but indicators are that it has been limited.
POLITICAL FRONT –
See discussion of biden’s victory lap speech above.
Aftershocks continue following the very bad, awful day republicans had at the mid term polls. It is very likely that republicans will have a net of at least about 15 seats – what is needed to take control of the house. Historical midterm flips generally range about 25 seats. Senate control still in the balance and may boil down to the Georgia runoff.
Congressional turmoil is guaranteed for the next two years no matter what. That turmoil can threaten the stability of the nation and make the red-blue divide even bigger.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Amphibious assault ship USS Makin Island (LHD-8), the flagship of the Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group, left Naval Base San Diego on Wednesday for a deployment to the Indo-Pacific region, USNI News has learned.
The Amphibious Ready Group with the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked includes Makin Island and amphibious transport docks USS John P. Murtha (LPD-26) and USS Anchorage (LPD-23). Makin Island and John P. Murtha left San Diego on Wednesday, while Anchorage left on Tuesday.
The U.S. Navy has raised its maximum age for general enlistment from 39 to 41, after the U.S. military saw historic struggles with recruiting in the 2022 fiscal year and signs of continued struggles ahead. Under the new change, recruits must now report to boot camp before their 42nd birthday.
China –
China will focus on preparing for war with the country’s security ‘increasingly unstable and uncertain’, President Xi Jinping has declared.
Beijing will now comprehensively strengthen its military training and preparation for any war, Xi said today, according to state broadcaster CCTV.
His warning comes after Xi last month called for faster military development, ‘self-reliance and strength’ in technology and defense of China’s interests abroad, raising the likelihood of further conflict.
OBSERVATION – Nothing short of a coup will remove Xi from his position and with his hand picked followers in key positions, he will be unencumbered in following his desires. War with China is inevitable.
North/South Korea –
SK retrieved parts of the many missiles NK recently shot off and reports that they are mostly aged Soviet rockets, nothing substantially new.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. In a surprise move, Russia directed the withdrawal of forces from the western side of the Dnipir River.
Russia has increased the construction of defensive fortifications in many places in the south and east Ukraine.
Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
********
Russian Defense Minister Shoigu ordered Surovkin to withdraw troops to the left bank of Dnipro river.
“Shoigu agreed with the (Surovikin’s) proposal to organize defense along the line of the Dnieper River: proceed with the withdrawal of troops”
Surovikin directly acknowledged that Russian forces cannot supply their grouping in Kherson City and the surrounding areas due to Ukrainian strikes on critical Russian supply lines to the west bank. “Under these conditions, the city of Kherson and nearby settlements cannot be supplied in a fully-fledged manner” the Commander for Russia’s forces in Ukraine said on Wednesday.
The withdrawal met with approval from a key putin ally - Ramzan Kadyrov congratulated Surovikin, saying the withdrawal was a wise decision.
Attached link shows the region to see what we are talking about.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhJahpjWIAAqC0s?format=jpg&name=large
At this time, there is a lot of evidence that Russia is not ready yet to surrender Kherson city proper. Possibly in order to defend Dnipir crossing sites from being quickly overrun by Ukranian forces, trapping Russians on the west side of the river or perhaps to try to clone the Ukranian ‘meat grinder’ urban defense tactics.
OBSERVATION – Wow, as I’ve said, things can change quickly. Strategically, this is another huge loss for the Russians. This appears to be a sequel to the great withdrawal of Kyiv this past spring. Conditions for panic and chaos in Russia’s poorly trained and lead soldiers are ripe.
Kherson City is the only provincial capital captured by the Russians since the start of the war this past February. With this withdrawal, Russia has abandoned its “land bridge” goals of capturing southern Ukraine and having Russian controlled lands all the way to Transnistria.
From a strategic/tactical perspective reconsolidation of Russian troops on the eastern bank of the river a logical choice, shortening logistical chains and providing a natural defensive barrier as winter weather approaches. However, how well this move sets on the Russian nationalists now seeing Russian “territory” being essentially ceded back to Ukraine has yet to be seen.
OSINT and open source imagery show Russians constructing even more lines of defensive. In addition to that already identified on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipir River and being constructed by Wagner group forces in the east, construction of fixed defenses along the Crimean border have been observed. All this infers that Russia is desperately planning on a winter defensive strategy to hold out until they are able to mobilize more soldiers and scrape up more equipment.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia’s announcement of its withdrawal from Kherson Oblast has kicked the action up several notches in the south. Russian localized offensives around Bakhmut and Soledar were repelled yesterday and in the south fighting was intensive around Snihurivka as Ukrainian forces continue their southern push.
Russian air/missile/drone strikes remained more limited yesterday and overnight but appeared to have been concentrated in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast which was targeted heavily by Iranian drones . Russian shelling continued to be mostly more sporadic yesterday across fronts in the east and south.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporadic Russian artillery strikes reported.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine continue to press eastward against Russian forces along the Svatove – Kreminna line.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russians continued their frontal assaults of Ukrainian defenses around Bakhmut with no success. Same for the Donetsk area, as Russians try to push northwest along highway M04.
Crimean front ———
Ukrainian forces are moving towards Kherson on at least three major fronts (southwestward along the right bank of the Dnipir, one southward from Snihurivka and the third southeastward from the Mykolaiv area), but with caution. Russian forces are fighting a delaying, rear guard action at the moment, but with Ukrainian successes, pressure is building on the poorly trained and motivated troops to withdrawal in an orderly manner meaning that they could cut and run at any moment like in Kharkiv as well as the pull out from the Kyiv region earlier this year.
Several settlements were re-secured yesterday along with strategic roads. Snihurivka, the largest Russian-held town north of Kherson, was confirmed to be liberated by Ukrainian forces.
News of the withdrawal may have caught the Russian troops somewhat by surprise. The big question now is whether Russia can withdraw the Dnipir River without taking heavy equipment and personnel losses. Ukraine has every incentive to make this withdrawal as chaotic and costly as possible
During the past months have setup an elaborate system of ferry’s crossing the Dnipro river. At least 8 ferry sites have been active. In the Kherson city area, there were 3 main ferry points, one is located near the Antonovskyyi railbridge near Pridniprovsky, near the ferry loading site. However, Ukraine knows these areas well as well as assembly areas that would provide lucrative targets for HIMARS and other artillery systems to hammer bunched up fleeing Russians. One such assembly area was reportedly hit overnight – with explosions reported in Oleshky district of Kherson region, a suspected ferry discharge assembly area southeast of Kherson, after missile strikes at Russian military equipment (location is also along the major M14/M17 highway that leads east)
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
Another well-known Russian military propagandist: “Kirill Stremousov [deputy head of Russia’s collaboration authorities in Kherson] has been killed in a car “accident”.
OUTLOOK ——
Like I said, wow, the situation can change rapidly. Evidence shows that Russia has been planning for a pullout for a while now, establishing a defensive in depth along the left (east – southeast bank) bank of the Dnipir. However, the open order to withdraw was a surprise, given Russia’s earlier announcement of the annexation of lands captured by Russia – including occupied portions of Kherson Oblast.
With the arrival of the HIMARS systems, Ukraine has been able to attack Russian logistics, command and troop concentrations very effectively and with the Russian forces west of the Dnipir essentially cut off and the Kerch Bridge seriously damaged and unable to be used to resupply forces, Russia saw they had little choice but to pull back. How chaotic the withdrawal will be depends, but I’m sure Russia will loose a lot more soldiers and equipment as the crossing sites and methods will be quickly overwhelmed by retreating / fleeing Russians.
Speaking of HIMARS, loss of the west bank of the Dnipir River will not stop Ukraine’s continued hammering of Russian logistics, command posts and troop concentrations. In fact, it will open up a whole new range of targets, even to the border of Crimea. Shortening of their supply lines under normal conditions (if you can call that in a war) would help Russia, but in this case Ukraine has the means to identify (via very active resistance cells/SOF operating in the region) and touch them.
The other question is how hard will the Russians try to make the fight for Kherson itself? There are many rumors and reports of Russian soldiers switching to civilian clothing and constructing strong points in the town. It would appear Russia is trying to implement their own form of a meatgrinder.
Belarus -
Continued training of Belarus and Russian soldiers in the central and western established training areas. No indicators of an imminent invasion.
Israel –
Israeli Defense Minister said in an interview “We are able to target Iran’s nuclear facilities”
OBSERVATION - Israel must be evaluating its options based on Tuesday’s US election results. I think they realize that they will get nothing but minimal lip service from biden over the next two years, so essentially they are on their own.
Iran -
Protests continue are the regime is starting to loose control of parts of the country. In Mahabad, NW Iran protesters are reportedly in control of numerous districts in this city, according to local activists
Misc of Note -
Central Florida being hammered by a Cat 1 Hurricane Nicole while recovery from an earlier Cat 5 is still being cleaned up. More damage and flooding to Florida and the southeast.