Replies

The country is at a greater danger today as a result of Tuesday - from both domestic sources as well as international ones.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Workers in Belgium and Greece took to the streets in a general strike citing increased consumer prices and cost of living. The demonstrations quickly led to violence as thousands of protestors from national workers’ unions marched in the Greek cities of Thessaloniki and Athens with groups of protestors throwing Molotov cocktails and rocks at police. General strikes in Greece and Belgium caused significant disruptions to transportation sectors, leaving public transportation systems at a standstill, and causing the cancelation of 60% of flights to and from Brussels.

OBSERVATION – France and Britain are facing similar issues. Believe it or not this feeds into the GGR goals to ‘reset’ the economies. Create the problem and be the solution. Hegelian dialectic at work.

Wuhan virus –

The World Health Organization chief on Wednesday said a nearly 90% drop in recent COVID-19 deaths globally compared to nine months ago provides “cause for optimism,” but still urged vigilance against the pandemic as variants continue to crop up.
Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that last week just over 9,400 deaths linked to the coronavirus were reported to the WHO. In February of this year, he said, weekly deaths had topped 75,000 globally.

OBSERVATION – Those variants are in no way even close to the lethality of the original virus (if we can consider that by itself – especially since those death numbers have been intentially inflated).

Economy –

Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released today shows an annualized rate of inflation at 7.7%, and a month-over-month price for everyday goods including gasoline, groceries and rents, rose 0.4% in October from the previous month.

OBSERVATION – While this number is lower, the cumulative effect of the high inflation being experienced is still significant. We are not out of the woods by any means. Rule of thumb I read is that it takes Fed interest rate changes about 6 months to amble through the economy. Real economic dynamics operate on a much shorter time loop. Black swan events can throw the whole cycle off in an instant. JP Morgan analysts write “Our view is that we have entered a period of greater volatility of growth, inflation and markets, with shorter and faster economic cycles.”

The continued push by the Fed to raise interest rates, with its 6 month delay, could create unforeseen other unintended consequences in the economy. This is already evident from economic ripples coming out of the collapse of the housing and mortgage markets.

OBSERVATION – Yes, there is still a lot of gloom in analysts reviews of the status of the economy. I’ve posted before that we are in a zone of inflection, potentially on the edge of a cliff. Too many sectors are on shaky legs as it is with inflation, supply issues, manpower etc. These factors are just not really addressed by brute force prime rate changes by the Fed.

Turmoil in post- midterms congress about to get real as the 16 December deadline to pass another Continuing Resolution. “What’s most important to me about Congress for the next two months is that they avoid turning the national debt into some kind of hostage… This is a fragile moment in financial markets,” former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said.

OBSERVATION - Not sure how the outgoing congress is going to work thru this. I think the democrat, buoyed by their relatively success effort to stave off the red wave may be feeling their oats and try to force measures that are repugnant to republicans – forcing a shut down. Alternatively, they may just do another short CR and put the thing in the lap of the republicans – giving them room to sabotage it and blame the republicans.

According to the latest estimate from the Energy Information Administration, consumers who rely on heating oil should expect to pay 45% more than last winter. This is nearly double last month’s projected increase of 27%. Stockpiles in the Northeast are currently a third of typical levels.

OBSERVATION – Increased costs just from this sector have yet to be really seen in the CPI.

Still hanging out there is the threat of a rail road strike. However, execution of such a strike has been pushed back to early December, as four major unions have agreed to coordinate the date on which they could potentially go on strike.
The third-largest railroad union, the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employe Division, had been prepared to strike as soon as November 20, the Sunday before Thanksgiving. But the group announced Wednesday that is has agreed to extend negotiations with the railroads until at least December 4, the deadline set by another union, the Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen. The rank and file members of both unions have rejected the tentative agreements reached with the railroads in September, mostly over the lack of sick pay in the contracts.
A strike by any one rail union would lead to a shutdown of America’s major freight railroads, as all the other unions, even those that have ratified contracts, would honor the picket lines. That could cause severe economic problems, as 30% of America’s freight moves by rail, when measured by weight and distance traveled.

OBSERVATION - As I noted on my comments concerning the CPI above, an extended strike could kick the legs out from under any relief from inflation by creating critical shortages quickly and thus driving prices skyward.

Biden / Harris watch –

From biden’s victory lap news conference yesterday – some very concerning comments
NOTE – These observations/comments are also applicable to the CW2 area as well.

“Our intention is to run again,” says Pres Biden, adding that his guess is that it’ll be “early next year” when he & his family make that decision. He says he doesn’t feel rushed to decide, no matter what Trump does.

OBSERVATION – Have his handlers reassessed his status as a boat anchor to the democrat party? Tuesday’s results do infer he came out of the elections in a stronger position than going into it.

Biden asked what happens if Trump runs again:
“We just have to demonstrate that he will not take power if he does run, by making sure under the legitimate efforts under the Constitution that he doesn’t become president again.”

OBSERVATION – This is one of the potentially scary parts. Under the constitution there are no provisions that biden can cite to prevent Trump from becoming president (under the assumption he wins). The only provisions are for Trump to be found guilty of a crime that disqualifies him from running. That means biden could well fire up the DoJ/FBI efforts to find some kind of charges they can fix on Trump and get a conviction.
As I’ve noted before, if the DoJ/FBI continues in its trend of making show arrests – they will likely cross over a red line and provoke kinetic action from elements of the right. That in turn will give the govt more reason to crack down on the right – a foundation already laid from govt policy and bidens Hitlerian speeches of late.

President Biden said Wednesday that he won’t change a thing about how he runs the country over the next two years in his first public comments since his fellow Democrats outperformed expectations in Tuesday’s midterm elections. “Nothing,” Biden said when asked what he planned to do differently over the next two years ahead of a potential 2024 reelection bid, “because they’re just finding out what we’re doing. The more they know about what we’re doing, the more support there is.”

OBSERVATION – Biden is taking the results as a renewed mandate to keep doing the same disastrous policies that have wreaked havoc over our country since he came to office. Much of what he has done has been via EOs and regulatory work arounds to avoid the log jam in congress. This will get worse with the switch of the house to republican control. (if republicans gain ‘control’ in the senate as well, it is unreliable due to the RINO democrat collaborators in the party). He further has far less fear of impeachment with the greatly reduced red ‘wave’ and may operate more freely in opposition to congress and the laws of the land.

CW2/Domestic violence –

See biden’s comments above – particularly those addressed to prevent Trump from running (or attaining ) for president and the continuation of policies that have degraded this nation.

Antifa is still angry in Portland as one of their favored commissioners was voted out of office, generating cries for vengeance. No clear reports on how much damage was caused since the election, but indicators are that it has been limited.

POLITICAL FRONT –

See discussion of biden’s victory lap speech above.

Aftershocks continue following the very bad, awful day republicans had at the mid term polls. It is very likely that republicans will have a net of at least about 15 seats – what is needed to take control of the house. Historical midterm flips generally range about 25 seats. Senate control still in the balance and may boil down to the Georgia runoff.

Congressional turmoil is guaranteed for the next two years no matter what. That turmoil can threaten the stability of the nation and make the red-blue divide even bigger.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Amphibious assault ship USS Makin Island (LHD-8), the flagship of the Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group, left Naval Base San Diego on Wednesday for a deployment to the Indo-Pacific region, USNI News has learned.
The Amphibious Ready Group with the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked includes Makin Island and amphibious transport docks USS John P. Murtha (LPD-26) and USS Anchorage (LPD-23). Makin Island and John P. Murtha left San Diego on Wednesday, while Anchorage left on Tuesday.

The U.S. Navy has raised its maximum age for general enlistment from 39 to 41, after the U.S. military saw historic struggles with recruiting in the 2022 fiscal year and signs of continued struggles ahead. Under the new change, recruits must now report to boot camp before their 42nd birthday.

China –

China will focus on preparing for war with the country’s security ‘increasingly unstable and uncertain’, President Xi Jinping has declared.
Beijing will now comprehensively strengthen its military training and preparation for any war, Xi said today, according to state broadcaster CCTV.
His warning comes after Xi last month called for faster military development, ‘self-reliance and strength’ in technology and defense of China’s interests abroad, raising the likelihood of further conflict.

OBSERVATION – Nothing short of a coup will remove Xi from his position and with his hand picked followers in key positions, he will be unencumbered in following his desires. War with China is inevitable.

North/South Korea –

SK retrieved parts of the many missiles NK recently shot off and reports that they are mostly aged Soviet rockets, nothing substantially new.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. In a surprise move, Russia directed the withdrawal of forces from the western side of the Dnipir River.

Russia has increased the construction of defensive fortifications in many places in the south and east Ukraine.

Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.

********
Russian Defense Minister Shoigu ordered Surovkin to withdraw troops to the left bank of Dnipro river.
“Shoigu agreed with the (Surovikin’s) proposal to organize defense along the line of the Dnieper River: proceed with the withdrawal of troops”
Surovikin directly acknowledged that Russian forces cannot supply their grouping in Kherson City and the surrounding areas due to Ukrainian strikes on critical Russian supply lines to the west bank. “Under these conditions, the city of Kherson and nearby settlements cannot be supplied in a fully-fledged manner” the Commander for Russia’s forces in Ukraine said on Wednesday.

The withdrawal met with approval from a key putin ally - Ramzan Kadyrov congratulated Surovikin, saying the withdrawal was a wise decision.

Attached link shows the region to see what we are talking about.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhJahpjWIAAqC0s?format=jpg&name=large

At this time, there is a lot of evidence that Russia is not ready yet to surrender Kherson city proper. Possibly in order to defend Dnipir crossing sites from being quickly overrun by Ukranian forces, trapping Russians on the west side of the river or perhaps to try to clone the Ukranian ‘meat grinder’ urban defense tactics.

OBSERVATION – Wow, as I’ve said, things can change quickly. Strategically, this is another huge loss for the Russians. This appears to be a sequel to the great withdrawal of Kyiv this past spring. Conditions for panic and chaos in Russia’s poorly trained and lead soldiers are ripe.
Kherson City is the only provincial capital captured by the Russians since the start of the war this past February. With this withdrawal, Russia has abandoned its “land bridge” goals of capturing southern Ukraine and having Russian controlled lands all the way to Transnistria.

From a strategic/tactical perspective reconsolidation of Russian troops on the eastern bank of the river a logical choice, shortening logistical chains and providing a natural defensive barrier as winter weather approaches. However, how well this move sets on the Russian nationalists now seeing Russian “territory” being essentially ceded back to Ukraine has yet to be seen.

OSINT and open source imagery show Russians constructing even more lines of defensive. In addition to that already identified on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipir River and being constructed by Wagner group forces in the east, construction of fixed defenses along the Crimean border have been observed. All this infers that Russia is desperately planning on a winter defensive strategy to hold out until they are able to mobilize more soldiers and scrape up more equipment.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia’s announcement of its withdrawal from Kherson Oblast has kicked the action up several notches in the south. Russian localized offensives around Bakhmut and Soledar were repelled yesterday and in the south fighting was intensive around Snihurivka as Ukrainian forces continue their southern push.

Russian air/missile/drone strikes remained more limited yesterday and overnight but appeared to have been concentrated in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast which was targeted heavily by Iranian drones . Russian shelling continued to be mostly more sporadic yesterday across fronts in the east and south.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Sporadic Russian artillery strikes reported.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine continue to press eastward against Russian forces along the Svatove – Kreminna line.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russians continued their frontal assaults of Ukrainian defenses around Bakhmut with no success. Same for the Donetsk area, as Russians try to push northwest along highway M04.

Crimean front ———
Ukrainian forces are moving towards Kherson on at least three major fronts (southwestward along the right bank of the Dnipir, one southward from Snihurivka and the third southeastward from the Mykolaiv area), but with caution. Russian forces are fighting a delaying, rear guard action at the moment, but with Ukrainian successes, pressure is building on the poorly trained and motivated troops to withdrawal in an orderly manner meaning that they could cut and run at any moment like in Kharkiv as well as the pull out from the Kyiv region earlier this year.

Several settlements were re-secured yesterday along with strategic roads. Snihurivka, the largest Russian-held town north of Kherson, was confirmed to be liberated by Ukrainian forces.

News of the withdrawal may have caught the Russian troops somewhat by surprise. The big question now is whether Russia can withdraw the Dnipir River without taking heavy equipment and personnel losses. Ukraine has every incentive to make this withdrawal as chaotic and costly as possible

During the past months have setup an elaborate system of ferry’s crossing the Dnipro river. At least 8 ferry sites have been active. In the Kherson city area, there were 3 main ferry points, one is located near the Antonovskyyi railbridge near Pridniprovsky, near the ferry loading site. However, Ukraine knows these areas well as well as assembly areas that would provide lucrative targets for HIMARS and other artillery systems to hammer bunched up fleeing Russians. One such assembly area was reportedly hit overnight – with explosions reported in Oleshky district of Kherson region, a suspected ferry discharge assembly area southeast of Kherson, after missile strikes at Russian military equipment (location is also along the major M14/M17 highway that leads east)

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

Another well-known Russian military propagandist: “Kirill Stremousov [deputy head of Russia’s collaboration authorities in Kherson] has been killed in a car “accident”.

OUTLOOK ——
Like I said, wow, the situation can change rapidly. Evidence shows that Russia has been planning for a pullout for a while now, establishing a defensive in depth along the left (east – southeast bank) bank of the Dnipir. However, the open order to withdraw was a surprise, given Russia’s earlier announcement of the annexation of lands captured by Russia – including occupied portions of Kherson Oblast.

With the arrival of the HIMARS systems, Ukraine has been able to attack Russian logistics, command and troop concentrations very effectively and with the Russian forces west of the Dnipir essentially cut off and the Kerch Bridge seriously damaged and unable to be used to resupply forces, Russia saw they had little choice but to pull back. How chaotic the withdrawal will be depends, but I’m sure Russia will loose a lot more soldiers and equipment as the crossing sites and methods will be quickly overwhelmed by retreating / fleeing Russians.

Speaking of HIMARS, loss of the west bank of the Dnipir River will not stop Ukraine’s continued hammering of Russian logistics, command posts and troop concentrations. In fact, it will open up a whole new range of targets, even to the border of Crimea. Shortening of their supply lines under normal conditions (if you can call that in a war) would help Russia, but in this case Ukraine has the means to identify (via very active resistance cells/SOF operating in the region) and touch them.

The other question is how hard will the Russians try to make the fight for Kherson itself? There are many rumors and reports of Russian soldiers switching to civilian clothing and constructing strong points in the town. It would appear Russia is trying to implement their own form of a meatgrinder.

Belarus -

Continued training of Belarus and Russian soldiers in the central and western established training areas. No indicators of an imminent invasion.

Israel –

Israeli Defense Minister said in an interview “We are able to target Iran’s nuclear facilities”

OBSERVATION - Israel must be evaluating its options based on Tuesday’s US election results. I think they realize that they will get nothing but minimal lip service from biden over the next two years, so essentially they are on their own.

Iran -

Protests continue are the regime is starting to loose control of parts of the country. In Mahabad, NW Iran protesters are reportedly in control of numerous districts in this city, according to local activists

Misc of Note -

Central Florida being hammered by a Cat 1 Hurricane Nicole while recovery from an earlier Cat 5 is still being cleaned up. More damage and flooding to Florida and the southeast.

Alright, Friday. Lets get at it.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The concept of “fascism” was originally entered into the Encyclopedia Italiana by Italian philosopher Giovanni Gentile, who stated that “Fascism should more appropriately be called corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power.” Accordingly, all fascism is deeply rooted in leftist philosophies and thinkers. The natural progression of every form of Marxism, communism, socialism, fascism etc. all ultimately lead to a kind of globalist ideology and erasure of cultural separation. The methods might differ slightly but the end result is the same. Some think this is a good thing, but it is actually quite poisonous.

The new fascism is a re-branded philosophy best represented by something called “Stakeholder Capitalism.” It is a term often used by globalists at the World Economic Forum and the head of the WEF, Klaus Schwab. The media friendly definition of Stakeholder Capitalism is:

“A form of capitalism in which companies do not only optimize short-term profits for shareholders, but seek long term value creation, by taking into account the needs of all their stakeholders, and society at large.”

But who are “all stakeholders” in the opinion of the WEF?
Well, according to Klaus Schwab they are all of human civilization, now and in the future. In other words, the goal of SHC is for corporate leaders and globalist bureaucracy to take responsibility for the entire world, not just their own employees, shareholders and profits. And such leaders would not be acting as individuals, they would be acting as a collective. In other words, SHC requires all major corporations to act as a single unit with a single purpose and a unified collectivist ideology – An ideological monopoly. As Klaus Schwab states:
“The most important characteristic of the stakeholder model today is that the stakes of our system are now more clearly global. Economies, societies, and the environment are more closely linked to each other now than 50 years ago. The model we present here is therefore fundamentally global in nature, and the two primary stakeholders are as well.

…What was once seen as externalities in national economic policy making and individual corporate decision making will now need to be incorporated or internalized in the operations of every government, company, community, and individual. The planet is thus the center of the global economic system, and its health should be optimized in the decisions made by all other stakeholders.”
So fundamentally, the interim goal of the WEF are to ‘influence’ private corporations to do their bidding, in that these corporations use the shield of “private property” and business rights as a means to control society without repercussions. After all, a primary principle of conservatism and the US constitution is private property rights.
Most obvious examples are BlackRock ESG push as well as WEF leadership program graduates moving into key corporate leadership positions. Thus, without needing physical (military) power, WEF is able to advance its goals and eventually merge it all together as the pieces become ripe to do so.

OBSERVATION – This behind the curtain movement shows the seriousness of the WEF and GGR crowd. They are playing the long game and as of recent they have gotten many of the pieces ready to put together.

COP27 rambles on. One photo kinda buried in the mix is from a protester sign photographed in Egypt: “Climate change denial deserves the death penalty.” Sound familiar – similar directed towards wuhan/plandemic “deniers”.

More from the COP –
COP27 statement.
“The U.N. food agency aims to launch a plan within the year to make the world’s food system more sustainable, a senior executive told Reuters on the sidelines of the COP27 climate talks in Egypt.
The plan would show how the food industry and farming can align with the world’s goal of capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, Food and Agriculture Organization Deputy Director Zitouni Ould-Dada said.
The hope is that such a plan would act in a similar way to the release of a report for the energy sector by the International Energy Agency, which spurred investment into companies, projects and technologies aligned with the plan.”
“Food production accounts for around a third of global greenhouse gas emissions and is the main threat to 86% of the world’s species at risk of extinction, while cattle ranching is responsible for three quarters of Amazon rainforest loss. ……
Livestock accounts for nearly a third of the global methane emissions linked to human activity, released in the form of cattle burps, manure and the cultivation of feed crops.”

OBSERVATION – More plans to destroy farms and ranches. Remember, one of the goals is to reduce the human population to 500 million – so the need for current farms and ranches will not be there and what better way to lower the population is through starvation.

U.S. climate envoy John Kerry is planning to propose a new carbon-credit program that aims to ramp up funding from businesses and governments in wealthy economies to help developing countries cut back on fossil fuels.
…“No government in the world has enough money to affect the transition,” Mr. Kerry said. “The entity that could help the most is the private sector with the right structure.”
The plan aims to allow money to flow to emissions-reduction efforts for entire regions in the developing world. That would address one of the weaknesses under the current system, which grants credits for building individual renewable-energy projects but doesn’t ensure there are net emissions reductions happening across a broader area.

OBSERVATION – Just another way of wealth redistribution.

Economy –

In spite of the ‘moderated’ inflation numbers for October data the Federal Reserve is still on track for a fifth-straight 75 basis-point increase in interest rates at the Fed’s meeting next month, though traders are leaning more toward a half point. Concerns continue to increase in that the Feds dramatic tightening of the money supply will overshoot stated effects and cause the economy to over correct into a deep recession.

Effects of current Fed rate hikes are being reflected in the demand for home loan, with some analysts are noting that they have dropped to ‘depression’ era levels.

OBSERVATION – Bank surveys overwhelmingly suggest that we will be in a recession by next summer (still reluctance to recognize the start of the recessing being now). Indicators point to a deep one at that.

Invasion of Illegals -

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced on Thursday that the 300th busload of migrants is heading from the Lone Star State to Chicago.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden continues to strut his stuff, now vowing to ban virtually all guns in the US. See CW2 below.

Harris gaining some powerful party allies for a 2024 presidental run should biden decide not to.

CW2/Domestic violence –

America continues to arm for a hot CW. More than a million guns were sold in the U.S. for the 39th straight month in October, even as sales cool off from record pandemic-era highs, according to new data from National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF). Monthly data from the NSSF estimated that 1,265,311 guns were sold at retail last month. That’s down 11.3 percent from October 2021, but still the fourth highest October since 2000, according to the data. NSSF bases its estimate on the number of federal background checks run through the National Instant Criminal Background Check System, or NICS.
Last year, the Pew Research Center found 40 percent of U.S. adults saying there is a gun in their household. Personal protection topped the list of reasons for gun ownership in a 2019 Gallup poll.

OBSERVATION – Clear and simple, not all of these were purchased by the right, increasing numbers are being purchased by ‘blue’ individuals. Some drivers of blue purchases are fear of rising crime in their progressive lead city/state. Other blues are more tactically minded and are thinking towards a hot CW (some of these groups are affiliated with Antifa et al).

Biden on Wednesday put in his cross-hairs a wide range of ordinary firearms owned by millions of Americans, insisting that “assault weapons” be banned all across the country. Technically, any weapon can be used in an “assault” but leftists often use the term to describe weapons that have certain looks – such as an attached cartridge, a pistol grip, even camouflage markings.

OBSERVATION – With a pseudo mandate from the people (according to biden) expect attacks against the Second Amendment to increase sharply and biden tries every trick in the book to ‘outlaw’ and restrict arms and ammunition to citizens. The midterms put republican’s backs against the wall and should (can’t really claim they will) resist any new laws or bans. So biden will use backdoor approaches that have worked so far, such as ATF redefinitions of guns and gun parts as well as shutting down legal gun sales.

In spite of Trumps recent apparent melt downs (See below under Political) he has still a pretty solid base of support. Now that the midterms are gone and with biden’s threat of preventing a Trump presidency thru all available means under the ‘constitution’ voices are shouting on the left to get on with indictment.
American Constitution Society co-founder and Harvard University professor Lawrence Tribe argued it was too late for Attorney General Merrick Garland to appoint a special counsel to finish probes into Trump, but said “it’s time to indict” him because the DOJ’s reported informal rule against indicting political figures within 60 before elections no longer applied. Former Assistant U.S. Attorney Andrew Weissmann tweeted that “the rule of law compels” legal action against Trump.

OBSERVATION – Democrat definitions of “the rule of law compels” means extra-legal means that do not apply to them. Any action to frog march Trump will cause some factions to go kinetic.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

OMG – twitter twits are still in melt down mode over Musk’s changes.

POLITICAL FRONT –

There have been dozens of takeaways and “x number of points to learn” from the election. The best I’ve seen to date is Victor David Hanson’s analysis found here –

https://dailycaller.com/2022/11/10/victor-davis-hanson-tuesday-takeaways/

Aftershocks continue from Tuesday’s midterm elections. Some of the high (low) points.

- Mysterious “dumps” that mirrored the 2020 results appeared in both Michigan and Pennsylvania to boost the democrats to victory.

- Arizona cannot get its act together as Maricopa county now says it cannot get its ballots counted until next week. Since the early morning hours of Election Day, voters experienced issues with Maricopa County’s tabulator machines, with one polling worker revealing that around 25 percent of ballots were being rejected. Since then the counting of votes has been trickling in, especially after 290,000 ballots were dropped off Election day. There has been much speculation as to why there are so many delays, and accusations levied at election officials, who are blamed for delaying and stalling the process. On Wednesday evening, Maricopa County officials revealed that 70 out of 223 voting locations, or nearly one out of every three, were impacted by printer issues on Election Day. Latest count I’ve seen is that there is nearly 500,000 ballots outstanding needing to be counted.

- Similar counting ‘problems’ plaguing Nevada’s major counties.

OBSERVATION – Even third world countries can get their counts done efficiently .

Perhaps an aftershock, Trump went volcanic in what appears to be a rambling rage against FL’s DeSantus, Fox News and others. Even making snarky comments about Youngkin. In this latest, Trump is threatening to split his base and raise serious questions over his ability to unite the party for a 2024 run at the WH. (Personally – I’m concerned he’s losing it)

China –

On Wednesday, Los Angeles County prosecutor George Gascon dropped criminal charges against Eugene Yu, CEO of the Michigan election software company Konnech. Yu was arrested in October, and stands accused of storing data on poll workers in a China-based server, which was a breach of the company’s contract with LA County.

In a statement, the district attorney’s office said that it had dropped the case due to concerns regarding the “pace of the investigation” and the “potential bias in the presentation” of evidence in the case..

According to the New York Times, the sudden dismissal of the case leaves questions unanswered about Yu’s activities. “The district attorney’s office did not clarify whether the company had, in fact, stored data in China. It was also not clear whether additional criminal or civil charges could be filed against Mr. Yu or Konnech from Los Angeles County or dozens of other counties that use Konnech’s election management software,” the New York Times reported.

OBSERVATION- What powers that be pressured this action. China?

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

********

Yesterday Russia announced it was pulling out of Kherson Oblast. Less than 24 hours later Ukraine went on a tear and liberated the territory west of the Dnipir River and even Kherson city itself. Kremlin’s spokesperson Peskov denies that Kremlin believes the retreat from Kherson is humiliating for Russia. No changes to Russian laws. Says Kremlin is nothing to do with retreat, purely decision of Defense Ministry.

Russian ministry of Defense tried to spin the news stating the withdrawal of troops from the right bank of Dnipro has been concluded. “Not a single serviceman or piece of equipment lost”.

This is the third major loss by Russia, after the Kyiv and Kharkiv defeats. Through this announcement, all the blame appears to be placed on the MOD and firewalls putin.

More details below under Ukraine.

Logistics –
- Tallies of Russian equipment left behind in Kherson is staggering.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- At the start of the withdrawal, it was estimated that as many as 20,000 Russian soldiers were located west of the Dnipir. It will become clearer over the next days just how many didn’t make it across.

- General Milley at a press conference stated that the US has estimated the Russian killed/wounded losses since the start of the war to be “well over” 100,000 Russian soldiers “

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
SMH, I’ve said things can develop fast, but yesterday (and continuing thru today) has been on a rocket. Russia lost Kherson in less than 24 hours as Ukraine forced its attack, keeping Russian forces under direct pressure. This turnover in terrain was even faster than the withdrawal from Kyiv. A lot of unconfirmed reports of the total breakdown of Russian defenses and near continuous Ukrainian artillery fire on troop assembly areas at Dnipir crossing points. I had found some tactical maps last night, but by this morning they were obsolete as the whole of the territory has been liberated.

Meanwhile, elsewhere - Fighting continues to be intense east and southeast of Bakhmut, the primary region Russian forces (Wagner Group) are continuing to execute offensives, but still to no avail.

Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line. Progress made northwest of Svatove.

Russian shelling remained mostly sporadic along the LOC and adjacent regions yesterday. This could likely be due to lack of munitions and resupply choke points as well as damages by Ukrainian long range artillery, airstrikes and SF sabotage operations on ammo dumps.

NOTICE - The following fronts or areas of action will be pared down next post as action in those areas are not pertinent to the overall course of the war anymore and will save me time in preparation. Plus, latest actions point to potential new actions elsewhere and I’d rather readjust to deal with them now rather than later.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
NSR

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine continue to press eastward against Russian forces along the Svatove – Kreminna line. Ukraine forces closed in on the village of Kryvoshhyivka, located about 8-10 miles northwest of Svatove.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russians continued their frontal assaults of Ukrainian defenses around Bakhmut with no success.

Seems ground assaults in the vicinity of Orikhiv have stopped for now as most of the fighting has seemed over to the Bakhmut area.

Crimean front ———
By all reports, Kherson Oblast has been liberated. Ukranian troops entered Kherson city overnight as forces liberated about 6000 sq km of territory overnight. A lot of crazy spot reports that will be sorted out in the days to come. At this stage, every indication the Russian “withdrawal” from the west bank of the Dnipro degenerated into a rout. Some RUMINT suggests that Ukrainian army advanced towards Kherson faster than Russian generals have anticipated.

According to pro-Russian sources on Telegram, Ukrainian artillery is targeting both Russian troops preparing to cross the Dnipro and Russian ferries on the river itself
Russian eyewitnesses on the left bank of the Dnipro River tell Russian correspondent Valeria Petrusevich: “Ukrainian troops continue to shell the Kherson crossings, hit our guys in the back... The explosions do not stop”

Making matters worse, it appears that Russia pulled back their AD allowing Ukrainian air-assets to work freely (no cover for retreating forces).

It is believed and in some areas documented that Russia extensively mined Kherson with anti-personnel weapons to maximize Ukrainian casualties as it retreats. They used similar tactics during their withdrawal from Kyiv. These mines reportedly extend to apartments and sewage systems. Russians destroyed at least 2 spans of Antonivsky bridge, the major crossing over the Dnipir River at Kherson (had already been damaged by Ukrainian strikes). Reports that Russian military blowing up critical civilian infrastructure in Kherson as well – one being the TV tower in the main city.

Currently unsubstantiated reports that remaining Russian troops were so desperate to get out that they were trying to swim across the river leaving all of the equipment behind. Many videos released showing Russians walking out on foot bridges.

Further RUMINT that It is alleged that the Ukrainian army entered Novakakhova (near the much mentioned dam) and crossed over to the left (east) side of the Dnipir ) to cut the retreating route. Russian sources seem also to confirm this report. Another rumored Ukrainian crossing further south reported as well.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

In Russian occupied Ukraine, there have been a growing number of disruptions in the railroads that carry most of the supplies from Russia to Russian forces inside Ukraine. In Russian occupied Ukraine, there have been a growing number of disruptions in the railroads that carry most of the supplies from Russia to Russian forces inside Ukraine.

Local civilians discovered that they could sabotage the rail by damaging signals and other auxiliary equipment and forcing a temporary halt in traffic. Three months into the war these civilian railroad saboteurs were getting in touch with one another via encrypted Internet apps.
Each of these actions can put the rail line out of action for as many as three days.

OUTLOOK ——
Wow, Ukraine will be spending some time clearing and consolidating control over the liberated territory. Reports of Russian soldiers changing into civilian clothes may suggest that there has been a contingent (likely spetznaz) staying behind to gum up the works so to speak. More clarity on if and where Ukraine may have secured river crossings (particularly in the Novakakhova area). Such could put a damper on the defense in depth Russia has constructed on the left side of the Dnipir, providing Ukraine a way to flank those defenses. However, the necessity to consolidate the Kherson gains and the logistical challenges of pursuing an attack at this time say no. More likely, if Ukraine has gained a foot hold, they will build upon it for future exploitation.

It is going to take likely weeks for Russia to sort out the evacuation cluster and reorient it forces for defense. They likely have the defensive lines already manned, but the chaos of withdrawal. Evacuation will have also created ad hoc troop concentrations that Ukrainian HIMARS and other systems can reach. The immediate future for Russia is pretty bleak.

The next question is what will Ukraine do next? Gotta take a day or so to look at the situation as it stabilizes and dig into stated thoughts and plans. Gut reaction is that it will be a long, cold deadly winter for Russia.

Israel –

Israel Defense Forces announced that 2 Israeli army F-35i “Adir” aircraft escorted 2 U.S. B-52 bombers assigned to CENTCOM through Israel’s skies yesterday.

Iran -

Protests continue and protestors are showing less fear of the regime’s IRGC and paramilitary Basij Force, using Molotov cocktails, improvised weapons and captured firearms.

OBSERVATION – With more aggressive tactics against IRGC and paramilitary Basij Force by protestors, the incipient revolution is crossing into a more dangerous phase for the regime. As the people realize that they can fight back and that they have those forces outnumbered, I expect more such actions.

Misc of Note -

With all the discussion of a third straight La Nina winter, I’m waiting for the NOAA to walk it back. So far national weather patterns are not following the forecast of warmer, dryer conditions. So far its been much the opposite.
The first blizzard of the 2022-23 winter season is unfolding across the northern Plains and through the upper Midwest today. Parts of North and South Dakota and portions of Montana, Minnesota, and Nebraska are in the storm’s path. Some areas could experience more than a foot of snow and snowfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour.

(BTW – Here in the Redoubt temperatures have been well below average for the past 3 weeks and have been running a fire in the free standing fire place for most of that period – something I have to do later in the winter)

A powerful storm hit California on November 8, 2022, bringing record-breaking rains, snow, and at least 1 tornado. The storm left one person dead and several others missing. This was the wettest start of November in nearly 20 years for many locations across the state.

OBSERVATION – Still early in the season, but things aren’t trending along long term forecasts.

We are still reeling from the virulent transgender movement, but there is a new mental problem on the horizon that is gaining traction - “transabled” movement. This movement is made up of people who feel themselves to be disabled but are in fact physically healthy. Many of them wish to have a limb removed or to be otherwise mutilated so that their appearance and ability will match how they “feel”; a medical community which has embraced the practice of cutting off penises and surgically removing healthy breasts for the gender dysphoric doesn’t have any compelling grounds to refuse.

OBSERVATION – The insanity level of our world is going beyond the stratosphere.