Alright, Friday. Lets get at it.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The concept of “fascism” was originally entered into the Encyclopedia Italiana by Italian philosopher Giovanni Gentile, who stated that “Fascism should more appropriately be called corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power.” Accordingly, all fascism is deeply rooted in leftist philosophies and thinkers. The natural progression of every form of Marxism, communism, socialism, fascism etc. all ultimately lead to a kind of globalist ideology and erasure of cultural separation. The methods might differ slightly but the end result is the same. Some think this is a good thing, but it is actually quite poisonous.
The new fascism is a re-branded philosophy best represented by something called “Stakeholder Capitalism.” It is a term often used by globalists at the World Economic Forum and the head of the WEF, Klaus Schwab. The media friendly definition of Stakeholder Capitalism is:
“A form of capitalism in which companies do not only optimize short-term profits for shareholders, but seek long term value creation, by taking into account the needs of all their stakeholders, and society at large.”
But who are “all stakeholders” in the opinion of the WEF?
Well, according to Klaus Schwab they are all of human civilization, now and in the future. In other words, the goal of SHC is for corporate leaders and globalist bureaucracy to take responsibility for the entire world, not just their own employees, shareholders and profits. And such leaders would not be acting as individuals, they would be acting as a collective. In other words, SHC requires all major corporations to act as a single unit with a single purpose and a unified collectivist ideology – An ideological monopoly. As Klaus Schwab states:
“The most important characteristic of the stakeholder model today is that the stakes of our system are now more clearly global. Economies, societies, and the environment are more closely linked to each other now than 50 years ago. The model we present here is therefore fundamentally global in nature, and the two primary stakeholders are as well.
…What was once seen as externalities in national economic policy making and individual corporate decision making will now need to be incorporated or internalized in the operations of every government, company, community, and individual. The planet is thus the center of the global economic system, and its health should be optimized in the decisions made by all other stakeholders.”
So fundamentally, the interim goal of the WEF are to ‘influence’ private corporations to do their bidding, in that these corporations use the shield of “private property” and business rights as a means to control society without repercussions. After all, a primary principle of conservatism and the US constitution is private property rights.
Most obvious examples are BlackRock ESG push as well as WEF leadership program graduates moving into key corporate leadership positions. Thus, without needing physical (military) power, WEF is able to advance its goals and eventually merge it all together as the pieces become ripe to do so.
OBSERVATION – This behind the curtain movement shows the seriousness of the WEF and GGR crowd. They are playing the long game and as of recent they have gotten many of the pieces ready to put together.
COP27 rambles on. One photo kinda buried in the mix is from a protester sign photographed in Egypt: “Climate change denial deserves the death penalty.” Sound familiar – similar directed towards wuhan/plandemic “deniers”.
More from the COP –
COP27 statement.
“The U.N. food agency aims to launch a plan within the year to make the world’s food system more sustainable, a senior executive told Reuters on the sidelines of the COP27 climate talks in Egypt.
The plan would show how the food industry and farming can align with the world’s goal of capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, Food and Agriculture Organization Deputy Director Zitouni Ould-Dada said.
The hope is that such a plan would act in a similar way to the release of a report for the energy sector by the International Energy Agency, which spurred investment into companies, projects and technologies aligned with the plan.”
“Food production accounts for around a third of global greenhouse gas emissions and is the main threat to 86% of the world’s species at risk of extinction, while cattle ranching is responsible for three quarters of Amazon rainforest loss. ……
Livestock accounts for nearly a third of the global methane emissions linked to human activity, released in the form of cattle burps, manure and the cultivation of feed crops.”
OBSERVATION – More plans to destroy farms and ranches. Remember, one of the goals is to reduce the human population to 500 million – so the need for current farms and ranches will not be there and what better way to lower the population is through starvation.
U.S. climate envoy John Kerry is planning to propose a new carbon-credit program that aims to ramp up funding from businesses and governments in wealthy economies to help developing countries cut back on fossil fuels.
…“No government in the world has enough money to affect the transition,” Mr. Kerry said. “The entity that could help the most is the private sector with the right structure.”
The plan aims to allow money to flow to emissions-reduction efforts for entire regions in the developing world. That would address one of the weaknesses under the current system, which grants credits for building individual renewable-energy projects but doesn’t ensure there are net emissions reductions happening across a broader area.
OBSERVATION – Just another way of wealth redistribution.
Economy –
In spite of the ‘moderated’ inflation numbers for October data the Federal Reserve is still on track for a fifth-straight 75 basis-point increase in interest rates at the Fed’s meeting next month, though traders are leaning more toward a half point. Concerns continue to increase in that the Feds dramatic tightening of the money supply will overshoot stated effects and cause the economy to over correct into a deep recession.
Effects of current Fed rate hikes are being reflected in the demand for home loan, with some analysts are noting that they have dropped to ‘depression’ era levels.
OBSERVATION – Bank surveys overwhelmingly suggest that we will be in a recession by next summer (still reluctance to recognize the start of the recessing being now). Indicators point to a deep one at that.
Invasion of Illegals -
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced on Thursday that the 300th busload of migrants is heading from the Lone Star State to Chicago.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden continues to strut his stuff, now vowing to ban virtually all guns in the US. See CW2 below.
Harris gaining some powerful party allies for a 2024 presidental run should biden decide not to.
CW2/Domestic violence –
America continues to arm for a hot CW. More than a million guns were sold in the U.S. for the 39th straight month in October, even as sales cool off from record pandemic-era highs, according to new data from National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF). Monthly data from the NSSF estimated that 1,265,311 guns were sold at retail last month. That’s down 11.3 percent from October 2021, but still the fourth highest October since 2000, according to the data. NSSF bases its estimate on the number of federal background checks run through the National Instant Criminal Background Check System, or NICS.
Last year, the Pew Research Center found 40 percent of U.S. adults saying there is a gun in their household. Personal protection topped the list of reasons for gun ownership in a 2019 Gallup poll.
OBSERVATION – Clear and simple, not all of these were purchased by the right, increasing numbers are being purchased by ‘blue’ individuals. Some drivers of blue purchases are fear of rising crime in their progressive lead city/state. Other blues are more tactically minded and are thinking towards a hot CW (some of these groups are affiliated with Antifa et al).
Biden on Wednesday put in his cross-hairs a wide range of ordinary firearms owned by millions of Americans, insisting that “assault weapons” be banned all across the country. Technically, any weapon can be used in an “assault” but leftists often use the term to describe weapons that have certain looks – such as an attached cartridge, a pistol grip, even camouflage markings.
OBSERVATION – With a pseudo mandate from the people (according to biden) expect attacks against the Second Amendment to increase sharply and biden tries every trick in the book to ‘outlaw’ and restrict arms and ammunition to citizens. The midterms put republican’s backs against the wall and should (can’t really claim they will) resist any new laws or bans. So biden will use backdoor approaches that have worked so far, such as ATF redefinitions of guns and gun parts as well as shutting down legal gun sales.
In spite of Trumps recent apparent melt downs (See below under Political) he has still a pretty solid base of support. Now that the midterms are gone and with biden’s threat of preventing a Trump presidency thru all available means under the ‘constitution’ voices are shouting on the left to get on with indictment.
American Constitution Society co-founder and Harvard University professor Lawrence Tribe argued it was too late for Attorney General Merrick Garland to appoint a special counsel to finish probes into Trump, but said “it’s time to indict” him because the DOJ’s reported informal rule against indicting political figures within 60 before elections no longer applied. Former Assistant U.S. Attorney Andrew Weissmann tweeted that “the rule of law compels” legal action against Trump.
OBSERVATION – Democrat definitions of “the rule of law compels” means extra-legal means that do not apply to them. Any action to frog march Trump will cause some factions to go kinetic.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
OMG – twitter twits are still in melt down mode over Musk’s changes.
POLITICAL FRONT –
There have been dozens of takeaways and “x number of points to learn” from the election. The best I’ve seen to date is Victor David Hanson’s analysis found here –
https://dailycaller.com/2022/11/10/victor-davis-hanson-tuesday-takeaways/
Aftershocks continue from Tuesday’s midterm elections. Some of the high (low) points.
- Mysterious “dumps” that mirrored the 2020 results appeared in both Michigan and Pennsylvania to boost the democrats to victory.
- Arizona cannot get its act together as Maricopa county now says it cannot get its ballots counted until next week. Since the early morning hours of Election Day, voters experienced issues with Maricopa County’s tabulator machines, with one polling worker revealing that around 25 percent of ballots were being rejected. Since then the counting of votes has been trickling in, especially after 290,000 ballots were dropped off Election day. There has been much speculation as to why there are so many delays, and accusations levied at election officials, who are blamed for delaying and stalling the process. On Wednesday evening, Maricopa County officials revealed that 70 out of 223 voting locations, or nearly one out of every three, were impacted by printer issues on Election Day. Latest count I’ve seen is that there is nearly 500,000 ballots outstanding needing to be counted.
- Similar counting ‘problems’ plaguing Nevada’s major counties.
OBSERVATION – Even third world countries can get their counts done efficiently .
Perhaps an aftershock, Trump went volcanic in what appears to be a rambling rage against FL’s DeSantus, Fox News and others. Even making snarky comments about Youngkin. In this latest, Trump is threatening to split his base and raise serious questions over his ability to unite the party for a 2024 run at the WH. (Personally – I’m concerned he’s losing it)
China –
On Wednesday, Los Angeles County prosecutor George Gascon dropped criminal charges against Eugene Yu, CEO of the Michigan election software company Konnech. Yu was arrested in October, and stands accused of storing data on poll workers in a China-based server, which was a breach of the company’s contract with LA County.
In a statement, the district attorney’s office said that it had dropped the case due to concerns regarding the “pace of the investigation” and the “potential bias in the presentation” of evidence in the case..
According to the New York Times, the sudden dismissal of the case leaves questions unanswered about Yu’s activities. “The district attorney’s office did not clarify whether the company had, in fact, stored data in China. It was also not clear whether additional criminal or civil charges could be filed against Mr. Yu or Konnech from Los Angeles County or dozens of other counties that use Konnech’s election management software,” the New York Times reported.
OBSERVATION- What powers that be pressured this action. China?
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west
Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
********
Yesterday Russia announced it was pulling out of Kherson Oblast. Less than 24 hours later Ukraine went on a tear and liberated the territory west of the Dnipir River and even Kherson city itself. Kremlin’s spokesperson Peskov denies that Kremlin believes the retreat from Kherson is humiliating for Russia. No changes to Russian laws. Says Kremlin is nothing to do with retreat, purely decision of Defense Ministry.
Russian ministry of Defense tried to spin the news stating the withdrawal of troops from the right bank of Dnipro has been concluded. “Not a single serviceman or piece of equipment lost”.
This is the third major loss by Russia, after the Kyiv and Kharkiv defeats. Through this announcement, all the blame appears to be placed on the MOD and firewalls putin.
More details below under Ukraine.
Logistics –
- Tallies of Russian equipment left behind in Kherson is staggering.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- At the start of the withdrawal, it was estimated that as many as 20,000 Russian soldiers were located west of the Dnipir. It will become clearer over the next days just how many didn’t make it across.
- General Milley at a press conference stated that the US has estimated the Russian killed/wounded losses since the start of the war to be “well over” 100,000 Russian soldiers “
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
SMH, I’ve said things can develop fast, but yesterday (and continuing thru today) has been on a rocket. Russia lost Kherson in less than 24 hours as Ukraine forced its attack, keeping Russian forces under direct pressure. This turnover in terrain was even faster than the withdrawal from Kyiv. A lot of unconfirmed reports of the total breakdown of Russian defenses and near continuous Ukrainian artillery fire on troop assembly areas at Dnipir crossing points. I had found some tactical maps last night, but by this morning they were obsolete as the whole of the territory has been liberated.
Meanwhile, elsewhere - Fighting continues to be intense east and southeast of Bakhmut, the primary region Russian forces (Wagner Group) are continuing to execute offensives, but still to no avail.
Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line. Progress made northwest of Svatove.
Russian shelling remained mostly sporadic along the LOC and adjacent regions yesterday. This could likely be due to lack of munitions and resupply choke points as well as damages by Ukrainian long range artillery, airstrikes and SF sabotage operations on ammo dumps.
NOTICE - The following fronts or areas of action will be pared down next post as action in those areas are not pertinent to the overall course of the war anymore and will save me time in preparation. Plus, latest actions point to potential new actions elsewhere and I’d rather readjust to deal with them now rather than later.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
NSR
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine continue to press eastward against Russian forces along the Svatove – Kreminna line. Ukraine forces closed in on the village of Kryvoshhyivka, located about 8-10 miles northwest of Svatove.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russians continued their frontal assaults of Ukrainian defenses around Bakhmut with no success.
Seems ground assaults in the vicinity of Orikhiv have stopped for now as most of the fighting has seemed over to the Bakhmut area.
Crimean front ———
By all reports, Kherson Oblast has been liberated. Ukranian troops entered Kherson city overnight as forces liberated about 6000 sq km of territory overnight. A lot of crazy spot reports that will be sorted out in the days to come. At this stage, every indication the Russian “withdrawal” from the west bank of the Dnipro degenerated into a rout. Some RUMINT suggests that Ukrainian army advanced towards Kherson faster than Russian generals have anticipated.
According to pro-Russian sources on Telegram, Ukrainian artillery is targeting both Russian troops preparing to cross the Dnipro and Russian ferries on the river itself
Russian eyewitnesses on the left bank of the Dnipro River tell Russian correspondent Valeria Petrusevich: “Ukrainian troops continue to shell the Kherson crossings, hit our guys in the back... The explosions do not stop”
Making matters worse, it appears that Russia pulled back their AD allowing Ukrainian air-assets to work freely (no cover for retreating forces).
It is believed and in some areas documented that Russia extensively mined Kherson with anti-personnel weapons to maximize Ukrainian casualties as it retreats. They used similar tactics during their withdrawal from Kyiv. These mines reportedly extend to apartments and sewage systems. Russians destroyed at least 2 spans of Antonivsky bridge, the major crossing over the Dnipir River at Kherson (had already been damaged by Ukrainian strikes). Reports that Russian military blowing up critical civilian infrastructure in Kherson as well – one being the TV tower in the main city.
Currently unsubstantiated reports that remaining Russian troops were so desperate to get out that they were trying to swim across the river leaving all of the equipment behind. Many videos released showing Russians walking out on foot bridges.
Further RUMINT that It is alleged that the Ukrainian army entered Novakakhova (near the much mentioned dam) and crossed over to the left (east) side of the Dnipir ) to cut the retreating route. Russian sources seem also to confirm this report. Another rumored Ukrainian crossing further south reported as well.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
In Russian occupied Ukraine, there have been a growing number of disruptions in the railroads that carry most of the supplies from Russia to Russian forces inside Ukraine. In Russian occupied Ukraine, there have been a growing number of disruptions in the railroads that carry most of the supplies from Russia to Russian forces inside Ukraine.
Local civilians discovered that they could sabotage the rail by damaging signals and other auxiliary equipment and forcing a temporary halt in traffic. Three months into the war these civilian railroad saboteurs were getting in touch with one another via encrypted Internet apps.
Each of these actions can put the rail line out of action for as many as three days.
OUTLOOK ——
Wow, Ukraine will be spending some time clearing and consolidating control over the liberated territory. Reports of Russian soldiers changing into civilian clothes may suggest that there has been a contingent (likely spetznaz) staying behind to gum up the works so to speak. More clarity on if and where Ukraine may have secured river crossings (particularly in the Novakakhova area). Such could put a damper on the defense in depth Russia has constructed on the left side of the Dnipir, providing Ukraine a way to flank those defenses. However, the necessity to consolidate the Kherson gains and the logistical challenges of pursuing an attack at this time say no. More likely, if Ukraine has gained a foot hold, they will build upon it for future exploitation.
It is going to take likely weeks for Russia to sort out the evacuation cluster and reorient it forces for defense. They likely have the defensive lines already manned, but the chaos of withdrawal. Evacuation will have also created ad hoc troop concentrations that Ukrainian HIMARS and other systems can reach. The immediate future for Russia is pretty bleak.
The next question is what will Ukraine do next? Gotta take a day or so to look at the situation as it stabilizes and dig into stated thoughts and plans. Gut reaction is that it will be a long, cold deadly winter for Russia.
Israel –
Israel Defense Forces announced that 2 Israeli army F-35i “Adir” aircraft escorted 2 U.S. B-52 bombers assigned to CENTCOM through Israel’s skies yesterday.
Iran -
Protests continue and protestors are showing less fear of the regime’s IRGC and paramilitary Basij Force, using Molotov cocktails, improvised weapons and captured firearms.
OBSERVATION – With more aggressive tactics against IRGC and paramilitary Basij Force by protestors, the incipient revolution is crossing into a more dangerous phase for the regime. As the people realize that they can fight back and that they have those forces outnumbered, I expect more such actions.
Misc of Note -
With all the discussion of a third straight La Nina winter, I’m waiting for the NOAA to walk it back. So far national weather patterns are not following the forecast of warmer, dryer conditions. So far its been much the opposite.
The first blizzard of the 2022-23 winter season is unfolding across the northern Plains and through the upper Midwest today. Parts of North and South Dakota and portions of Montana, Minnesota, and Nebraska are in the storm’s path. Some areas could experience more than a foot of snow and snowfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour.
(BTW – Here in the Redoubt temperatures have been well below average for the past 3 weeks and have been running a fire in the free standing fire place for most of that period – something I have to do later in the winter)
A powerful storm hit California on November 8, 2022, bringing record-breaking rains, snow, and at least 1 tornado. The storm left one person dead and several others missing. This was the wettest start of November in nearly 20 years for many locations across the state.
OBSERVATION – Still early in the season, but things aren’t trending along long term forecasts.
We are still reeling from the virulent transgender movement, but there is a new mental problem on the horizon that is gaining traction - “transabled” movement. This movement is made up of people who feel themselves to be disabled but are in fact physically healthy. Many of them wish to have a limb removed or to be otherwise mutilated so that their appearance and ability will match how they “feel”; a medical community which has embraced the practice of cutting off penises and surgically removing healthy breasts for the gender dysphoric doesn’t have any compelling grounds to refuse.
OBSERVATION – The insanity level of our world is going beyond the stratosphere.
We all are.
Shortened post today – heading out of town for a short trip. BRB tomorrow.
Globalism / Great Reset –
SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt — Nations will likely burn through their remaining carbon budget in less than a decade if they do not significantly reduce greenhouse gas pollution, a new study shows, causing the world to blow past a critical warming threshold and triggering catastrophic climate impacts.
But new gas projects — launched in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting global energy crunch — would consume 10 percent of that remaining carbon budget, making it all but impossible for nations to meet the Paris agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, according to another report released Wednesday.
The Global Carbon Budget, an annual assessment of how much the world can afford to emit to stay within its warming targets, found that greenhouse gas pollution will hit a record high this year, with much of the growth coming from a 1 percent increase in carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels. Emissions in both the United States and India have increased compared to last year, while China and the European Union will probably report small declines, according to the report.
OBSERVATION – this from the COP27- more sleight of hand by the climate change cultists. By making the claim that the 1.5 deg C limit has been blown out – greenists will push for even stricter standards regardless of the impact to humans – which will be more deadly than a 1.5 degree C temperature raise.
Wuhan virus –
On Friday, the Biden regime decided to extend the COVID public health emergency again until at least April, as public health officials are preparing for another Covid surge this winter.
OBSERVATION – Its not about the virus, its all about power.
Economy –
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she is not reading too much into October’s inflation report, which showed price pressures abating faster than expected and sent markets soaring.
While the consumer price index report, which showed annual inflation slowed to 7.7%, was good news, it might not mean that inflation is now in fast retreat, she said Friday.
“I don’t know if this is a turning point,” Yellen told Reuters during an interview from India, where she was meeting with India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. “I never make more of one data point. That is one data point.”
“It was certainly nice to see an inflation report that came in on the low side of expectations rather than the high side and, you know, we’ve seen early indications along the pipeline that inflation might be diminishing,” she added.
OBSERVATION - She’s hedging her bet.
Invasion of Illegals -
The commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection is being forced out of his job as part of a larger change in top personnel at the Department of Homeland Security, according to a government source.
Chris Magnus is resisting leaving the position, after being told by Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to resign or get fired, according to the source. It comes after a record year of migrants seeking to enter the U-S along the Mexican border.
Magnus has only been on the job for about a year, and sources say he has clashed with Department of Homeland Security officials over border enforcement policy. Some of Magnus’ duties have been taken over by his deputies.
OBSERVATION - Forced out for doing his job.
Biden / Harris watch –
biden heckled at the COP27 during speech
CW2/Domestic violence –
Linn County Oregon Sheriff Michelle Duncan is making clear her office will not be enforcing Oregon’s new “high capacity” magazine ban.
The ban is part of Ballot Measure 114 which also requires Oregon residents to acquire a $65 permit in order to exercise their Second Amendment right to buy a firearm.
She added, “I want to send a clear message to Linn County residents that the Linn County Sheriff’s Office is NOT going to be enforcing magazine capacity limits.” She outlined her guiding principle, “I want to ensure anything we do or don’t do will not hinder gunowners’ rights to purchase firearms, intentionally or unintentionally.”
Duncan noted that her office is still looking at the purchase permit requirement, to ascertain their best course of action there.
OBSERVATION – Lawfare likely to put hold on the law taking effect based on recent USSC decisions of the fundamental right to keep and bare arms. But more significantly, shows red areas taking a stronger stance against oppressive laws being forced by mob rule in blue states.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., on Friday called for a delay on the Senate Republican leadership vote after expressing disappointment with the party’s performance in the midterm elections.
Rubio’s announcement sent shock waves through Washington Thursday and his move suggested current Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R, Ky., could be ousted.
“The Senate GOP leadership vote next week should be postponed,” Rubio tweeted on Friday. “First we need to make sure that those who want to lead us are genuinely committed to fighting for the priorities & values of the working Americans (of every background) who gave us big wins in states like Florida.”
Rep McCarthy is facing a similar uphill fight to speakership.
OBSERVATION – I noted this in a previous post. In the past there have been rumblings of leadership changes. This time around the threat to McConnell and McCarthy are significant as many senate and house races that could have been won saw support pulled by congressional leadership in an apparent snub of those candidates being supported by Trump. Senate and House election staffs managed to pull defeat from the jaws of victory and now the chickens are coming home to roost.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west
Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
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Russian media continues to spin the loss of Kherson and pin blame on the MOD, avoiding including putin.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.
RUMINT –
The following sections are in the process of being restructured due to the changes in the situation on the ground. The 24 hour round up will be the main player, while the other sections will provide details and some analysis as necessary. I’ve retired several sections and have adjusted others. The adjustments are noted in the sections.
The following map link can help when I define the new sectors (as well as keep me straight)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhUi2g4XoAAAwTK?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian SF and other forces entered Kherson city early yesterday without incident and with much celebration from the liberated population of the city. Russian forces reportedly sabotaged the Antonovsky Road and Railway bridges, the Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric Dam bridge, as well as the Darevsky bridge as part of their withdrawal.
However, this and rapid advances by Ukrainian forces in the south are significant, potentially putting targets in Crimea in range of more Ukrainian rocket/missile weapons systems. The link below shows the new HIMARS line/range following Ukraine’s success in the south.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhJVX1DWQAE_fwh?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Fighting around Bakhmut was less intensive yesterday, despite reports of some Russian reinforcements or rotations in the region.
Russian shelling was mostly more sporadic across the impacted regions yesterday and has significantly reduced this week.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front —— (This sector runs south from the LOC Russian border due east of Kharkiv city to the Kreminna area, inclusive of the Svatove – Kreminna line.)
Scattered Russian ground assaults and artillery. Fighting concentrated along the LOC northwest of Svatove. All reportedly were repelled by Ukraine.
Donetsk Oblast —— (This sector runs southwest from the Kreminna area to the Donetsk Oblast boundry east of Donetsk and is inclusive of Mariupol)
As note, decreased fighting around Bahkmut but there was increased activity west - northwest of Donetsk
Zaporizhizhia Front ——— (NEW – Separated out from the general overlap of Donetsk and Crimean fronts. Consists of Zaporizhishia Oblast to the coast and is inclusive of Melitopoly)
Minor activity at Pavlivka with widely scattered and sporatic Russian artillery along the LOC
Crimean front ——— (Consists of the remaining occupied Kherson Oblast to the border of Crimea)
Ukranian forces continue to consolidate their gains. Various report of pockets of Russian soldiers that were unable to escape and are trapped. Ukrainian Military intelligence confirms control over Kherson, urges all Russian servicemen dressed in civilian clothes to surrender.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
There will be a pause in the Ukrainian offensive in the south as its forces consolidate gains and some elements are redeployed to the next area where offensive actions are contemplated.
Expect Russia to primarily expend time and effort digging in defenses for the next Ukrainian offensive action.
The HIMARS threat to Russia as a result of the withdrawal has gotten even more severe, putting key logistical supply line from Crimea via Armiansk in play (see link prior). This narrow peninsular strip of land is the only ground route into southern Ukraine. If Ukraine were to get the ATACMS long range rockets ALL of Crimea would be in play.
Russia is continuing to throw forces into the Ukrainian meat grinder in the east. Attacks are poorly supported and do not support each other.
Lacking the capability to affect the war from the ground, analysts are looking at the increased probability of a stepped up Russian missile offensive targeting Ukraine electrical grid and other key infrastructure. It is also believed that Russia will rely heavily on Iranian suppled drones for most of its attacks as the stockpile of Russian missiles has been drawn way down.
Watching closely to see if Iran starts to get its missile systems into Russia to replace its diminished supplies. Iranian resupply would be limited in that the only way to get these drones and missiles to Russia would be by air.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Belarus -
Border guard of Belarus accused Ukraine in planting mines at the border between two countries (on Ukrainian side)