Shortened post today – heading out of town for a short trip. BRB tomorrow.
Globalism / Great Reset –
SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt — Nations will likely burn through their remaining carbon budget in less than a decade if they do not significantly reduce greenhouse gas pollution, a new study shows, causing the world to blow past a critical warming threshold and triggering catastrophic climate impacts.
But new gas projects — launched in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting global energy crunch — would consume 10 percent of that remaining carbon budget, making it all but impossible for nations to meet the Paris agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, according to another report released Wednesday.
The Global Carbon Budget, an annual assessment of how much the world can afford to emit to stay within its warming targets, found that greenhouse gas pollution will hit a record high this year, with much of the growth coming from a 1 percent increase in carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels. Emissions in both the United States and India have increased compared to last year, while China and the European Union will probably report small declines, according to the report.
OBSERVATION – this from the COP27- more sleight of hand by the climate change cultists. By making the claim that the 1.5 deg C limit has been blown out – greenists will push for even stricter standards regardless of the impact to humans – which will be more deadly than a 1.5 degree C temperature raise.
Wuhan virus –
On Friday, the Biden regime decided to extend the COVID public health emergency again until at least April, as public health officials are preparing for another Covid surge this winter.
OBSERVATION – Its not about the virus, its all about power.
Economy –
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she is not reading too much into October’s inflation report, which showed price pressures abating faster than expected and sent markets soaring.
While the consumer price index report, which showed annual inflation slowed to 7.7%, was good news, it might not mean that inflation is now in fast retreat, she said Friday.
“I don’t know if this is a turning point,” Yellen told Reuters during an interview from India, where she was meeting with India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. “I never make more of one data point. That is one data point.”
“It was certainly nice to see an inflation report that came in on the low side of expectations rather than the high side and, you know, we’ve seen early indications along the pipeline that inflation might be diminishing,” she added.
OBSERVATION - She’s hedging her bet.
Invasion of Illegals -
The commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection is being forced out of his job as part of a larger change in top personnel at the Department of Homeland Security, according to a government source.
Chris Magnus is resisting leaving the position, after being told by Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to resign or get fired, according to the source. It comes after a record year of migrants seeking to enter the U-S along the Mexican border.
Magnus has only been on the job for about a year, and sources say he has clashed with Department of Homeland Security officials over border enforcement policy. Some of Magnus’ duties have been taken over by his deputies.
OBSERVATION - Forced out for doing his job.
Biden / Harris watch –
biden heckled at the COP27 during speech
CW2/Domestic violence –
Linn County Oregon Sheriff Michelle Duncan is making clear her office will not be enforcing Oregon’s new “high capacity” magazine ban.
The ban is part of Ballot Measure 114 which also requires Oregon residents to acquire a $65 permit in order to exercise their Second Amendment right to buy a firearm.
She added, “I want to send a clear message to Linn County residents that the Linn County Sheriff’s Office is NOT going to be enforcing magazine capacity limits.” She outlined her guiding principle, “I want to ensure anything we do or don’t do will not hinder gunowners’ rights to purchase firearms, intentionally or unintentionally.”
Duncan noted that her office is still looking at the purchase permit requirement, to ascertain their best course of action there.
OBSERVATION – Lawfare likely to put hold on the law taking effect based on recent USSC decisions of the fundamental right to keep and bare arms. But more significantly, shows red areas taking a stronger stance against oppressive laws being forced by mob rule in blue states.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., on Friday called for a delay on the Senate Republican leadership vote after expressing disappointment with the party’s performance in the midterm elections.
Rubio’s announcement sent shock waves through Washington Thursday and his move suggested current Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R, Ky., could be ousted.
“The Senate GOP leadership vote next week should be postponed,” Rubio tweeted on Friday. “First we need to make sure that those who want to lead us are genuinely committed to fighting for the priorities & values of the working Americans (of every background) who gave us big wins in states like Florida.”
Rep McCarthy is facing a similar uphill fight to speakership.
OBSERVATION – I noted this in a previous post. In the past there have been rumblings of leadership changes. This time around the threat to McConnell and McCarthy are significant as many senate and house races that could have been won saw support pulled by congressional leadership in an apparent snub of those candidates being supported by Trump. Senate and House election staffs managed to pull defeat from the jaws of victory and now the chickens are coming home to roost.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west
Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
********
Russian media continues to spin the loss of Kherson and pin blame on the MOD, avoiding including putin.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.
RUMINT –
The following sections are in the process of being restructured due to the changes in the situation on the ground. The 24 hour round up will be the main player, while the other sections will provide details and some analysis as necessary. I’ve retired several sections and have adjusted others. The adjustments are noted in the sections.
The following map link can help when I define the new sectors (as well as keep me straight)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhUi2g4XoAAAwTK?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian SF and other forces entered Kherson city early yesterday without incident and with much celebration from the liberated population of the city. Russian forces reportedly sabotaged the Antonovsky Road and Railway bridges, the Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric Dam bridge, as well as the Darevsky bridge as part of their withdrawal.
However, this and rapid advances by Ukrainian forces in the south are significant, potentially putting targets in Crimea in range of more Ukrainian rocket/missile weapons systems. The link below shows the new HIMARS line/range following Ukraine’s success in the south.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhJVX1DWQAE_fwh?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Fighting around Bakhmut was less intensive yesterday, despite reports of some Russian reinforcements or rotations in the region.
Russian shelling was mostly more sporadic across the impacted regions yesterday and has significantly reduced this week.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front —— (This sector runs south from the LOC Russian border due east of Kharkiv city to the Kreminna area, inclusive of the Svatove – Kreminna line.)
Scattered Russian ground assaults and artillery. Fighting concentrated along the LOC northwest of Svatove. All reportedly were repelled by Ukraine.
Donetsk Oblast —— (This sector runs southwest from the Kreminna area to the Donetsk Oblast boundry east of Donetsk and is inclusive of Mariupol)
As note, decreased fighting around Bahkmut but there was increased activity west - northwest of Donetsk
Zaporizhizhia Front ——— (NEW – Separated out from the general overlap of Donetsk and Crimean fronts. Consists of Zaporizhishia Oblast to the coast and is inclusive of Melitopoly)
Minor activity at Pavlivka with widely scattered and sporatic Russian artillery along the LOC
Crimean front ——— (Consists of the remaining occupied Kherson Oblast to the border of Crimea)
Ukranian forces continue to consolidate their gains. Various report of pockets of Russian soldiers that were unable to escape and are trapped. Ukrainian Military intelligence confirms control over Kherson, urges all Russian servicemen dressed in civilian clothes to surrender.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
There will be a pause in the Ukrainian offensive in the south as its forces consolidate gains and some elements are redeployed to the next area where offensive actions are contemplated.
Expect Russia to primarily expend time and effort digging in defenses for the next Ukrainian offensive action.
The HIMARS threat to Russia as a result of the withdrawal has gotten even more severe, putting key logistical supply line from Crimea via Armiansk in play (see link prior). This narrow peninsular strip of land is the only ground route into southern Ukraine. If Ukraine were to get the ATACMS long range rockets ALL of Crimea would be in play.
Russia is continuing to throw forces into the Ukrainian meat grinder in the east. Attacks are poorly supported and do not support each other.
Lacking the capability to affect the war from the ground, analysts are looking at the increased probability of a stepped up Russian missile offensive targeting Ukraine electrical grid and other key infrastructure. It is also believed that Russia will rely heavily on Iranian suppled drones for most of its attacks as the stockpile of Russian missiles has been drawn way down.
Watching closely to see if Iran starts to get its missile systems into Russia to replace its diminished supplies. Iranian resupply would be limited in that the only way to get these drones and missiles to Russia would be by air.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Belarus -
Border guard of Belarus accused Ukraine in planting mines at the border between two countries (on Ukrainian side)
Running late today.
Globalism / Great Reset –
400 - CO2 spewing private jets, took the global elite to Egypt to discuss how to restrict everyone else’s CO2 emissions.
The UK’s Daily Mail reported Monday that “officials who land a spot at the conference’s exclusive VIP restaurant will be able to dine out on an array of pricey meat and fish dishes served up during the 12-day climate conference in Sharm el-Sheikh this week. Those with a taste for the luxurious can snap up an angus beef medallion with sautéed potatoes for a pricey $100 (£90) or a creamy salmon for $40 (£35), after scoffing back a $50 (£43) seafood platter for starter.”
OBSERVATION – Hypocrisy? Off the charts. These are the same people, mind you, who want us to eat bugs. Then they also have the nerve to complain that the AC isn’t set low enough. Some animals are more equal than others.
Wuhan virus –
Kalifornia’s newscum is looking to force all grade school children to get the jab.
Yale University has issued a message to enrollees of the Spring 2023 semester. All must take a shot of the bivalent COVID-19 vaccine booster in order to attend.
OBSERVATION – With biden’s extension of the declaration of emergency for wuhan, plus the addition of the jab to the ‘recommended’ suite of vaccinations, expect more of this. Its about power people, not the virus.
Mayo Clinic has declined to consider a kidney transplant for an unvaccinated woman with stage-four kidney disease, she told Alpha News. That woman, Amy Broten, received a letter Nov. 1 informing her that her kidney transplant evaluation was denied.
“You have medical issues that need to be stabilized and/or improved prior to evaluation. The medical issues include: patient not willing to comply with the transplant team immunization requirements and recommendations,” the letter says.
Mayo Clinic said it cannot comment specifically on Broten’s case but confirmed that it requires transplant candidates to receive the COVID-19 vaccine.
“These patients have a higher risk of becoming severely ill from COVID-19. Mayo Clinic’s requirement for transplant patients follows current standards of care in accordance with national guidelines. There is also a critical shortage of lifesaving organs available,” a spokesperson said.
“Mayo Clinic takes seriously the responsibility to ensure that patients who receive an organ have the best possible outcome,” she continued. “Transplant candidates are already required to meet strict criteria, including being current on several vaccinations, undergoing preventive screenings and making healthy lifestyle changes.”
OBSERVATION – Clearly the staff at the Mayo clinic is unaware of the current status of the ‘science’ in that receiving the jab INCREASES life threatening conditions far beyond the now generally non-lethal wuhan virus. We need a Nuremburg tribunal – but won’t likely get one with progressive/Marxists in charge of the government and medical hierarchy.
Economy –
Intrigue and conspiracy are swirling around the collapse of the bit coin firm FTX. In a nutshell:
…’Crypto exchange FTX lent billions of dollars worth of customer assets to fund risky bets by its affiliated trading firm, Alameda Research, setting the stage for the exchange’s implosion, a person familiar with the matter said. … FTX Chief Executive Sam Bankman-Fried said in investor meetings this week that Alameda owes FTX about $10 billion, people familiar with the matter said.‘…(Wall Street Journal online)
FTX group has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBM), has stepped down as CEO. A new CEO has been appointed to maximize stakeholder recovery.
One of the big discussions are claims that democrats used FTX to launder 40 billion in aid to Ukraine back into its coffers via Aid for Ukraine,” which had the backing of crypto exchange FTX, staking platform Everstake and Ukraine’s Kuna exchange, will route donated crypto to the National Bank of Ukraine,. Sam Bankman-Fried was one of the largest donors of cash to Democrat candidates in the 2022 mid-term elections.
Others look at this as the beginning of the govt/WEF action to destroy crypto and force its digital currency on the country under the guise of the industry needing govt oversight to prevent such future disasters. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for crypto to be regulated after the FTX debacle.
“It shows the weaknesses of this entire sector,” Yellen told Bloomberg News on Saturday.
“In other regulated exchanges, you would have segregation of customer assets,” she said. “The notion you could use the deposits of customers of an exchange and lend them to a separate enterprise that you control to do leveraged, risky investments — that wouldn’t be something that’s allowed.”
OBSERVATION – Never let a crisis go unexploited. I’m not a crypto person, so some of this is foreign to me. But the implications towards federal control of the industry and a federal digital currency system is readily apparent, as Yellen stated above.
The U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said that the Democrats’ clinching of U.S. Senate control makes things easier for the Biden administration, but she would still like to see a debt ceiling increase approved before year-end in Congress’s post-election “lame duck” session.
Yellen told reporters on the sidelines of G20 summit meetings in Bali that Senate control by Democrats would ease the path for approving nominations and other legislative actions.
“We want to see the debt ceiling get done. If it got done in the lame duck, that would be great, as far as I’m concerned,” Yellen said.
OBSERVATION – Expect a lot of things to be pushed through in the coming months that will hammer the economy. How bold the democrats will be depend now on the outcome of the house races, having secured senate control for two more years.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Democratic Senate Majority leader, Chuck Schumer, said the midterm results showed the American people had rejected what he called the “violent rhetoric” of the Republican Party.
If the Democrats can enhance their Senate majority to 51-49, one will expect greater pressure by progressives to nuke the filibuster rule so that they can pass bills by simple majority. This will see gun control/confiscation legislation and possibly expansion of the USSC (and resulting leftist packing). This move will become even greater if the democrats some how retain control the House. At the moment Republicans stand at 211 seats (+7) and Democrats at 204 (-7) with 218 needed for a majority. Democrats are not out of it yet. Too many of the races with outcomes yet to be determined are located in California. Of the total pending races, some counts show republicans leading in only 10 of them.
OBSERVATION – Take note, democrats appear to think the ‘violent rhetoric’ (ie republicans are violent) motife/narrative is a winner and you can expect that over the next two years biden et al will take that and shift gears to a greater physical oppression of the opposition. Whether or not the general public actually sees that as the issue is unknown – but democrats are ramping it up as their mandate from the election. Red states had better start girding themselves for more potential direct conflict with DC.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Republicans lost the attempt to control the Senate with the Nevada vote. In fact, if republicans loose Georgia, democrats will have increased their control by one.
The republicans in the house are still 7 seats shy of control, with 20 or so outstanding races still too close to call.
The democrats claim the best midterm performance of the party in power in 20 years. The red wave became in part a blue wave.
There appears to be a groundswell of support to replace McConnel as the party leader in the senate. House republicans too, show growing dissatisfaction with McCarthy and promise a challenge to his leadership as well.
OBSERVATION – I held weakly to hopes that this election would be free of the overt stealing that was 2020. Nope, the democrats seamlessly transitioned their methods to hit key state races. That and complacent republican leadership (or rather lack thereof) in the house and senate has laid the path for further destruction of the American way.
The saying that is increasingly gaining credibility in my book is that “you can’t vote your way out of tyrrany” – sad statement on the current state of the nation.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west
Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
********
Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson City has ignited an ideological fracture between pro-war figures and Russian President Vladimir Putin, eroding confidence in Putin’s commitment and ability to deliver his war promises. The ever-increasing doubts among extreme Russian nationalists about Putin’s commitment to Russian ideology is reducing Putin’s appeal to the nationalist community, while mobilization and high casualties will likely continue to upset members of Russian society.
Wagner-affiliated channels are also turning on the Kremlin following the loss of Kherson, which contrasts with the general support for the decision among the milblogger community before today & may further elevate the influence of the siloviki faction.
OBSERVATION – Politics at the Kremlin over the course of the war is becoming even more bitter. Wagner and Chechen forces have had putins support – simply to keep them at bay. Now the fight is getting closer to putin himself. Already Wagner has started to create a military structure that could challenge the Russian military in places like Belgrod and others. Threats to putin’s power are rising and will he be able to survive this knife fight?
Logistics –
- The Russian air force had about 1,500 helicopters when Russia invaded Ukraine. Most (74 percent) were older transport helicopters though many were recent versions of the Cold War era Mi-8 transports and Mi-24 gunships. This helicopter force seemed formidable but the Russians had a shortage of pilots and maintainers.
The new Russian helicopters did not do well. The KA-52 gunship (introduced in 2011) was thought to be well equipped to handle modern portable anti aircraft missiles like the American Stinger. The Americans had updated the Stinger more than the anti-missile defenses of the Ka-52 could handle. Transport helicopters were even more vulnerable. After eight months of combat Russia had lost nearly a hundred helicopters, mainly to ground fire. There were also losses due to accidents and mechanical failures. It was obvious that the most modern Russian designs were not up to the demands of combat against well-equipped opponents.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- Russian military officers may be attempting to limit the cost of force generation by manufacturing justifications to avoid giving soldiers promised payments and benefits.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian counteroffensives continue to make ground and consolidate positions in and around Kherson
Fighting intensified again in the southeast around Bakhmut and to its northeast around Soledar yesterday, with some very fierce fighting again reported. Reinforced Russian units launched coordinated offensives and the region was heavily shelled, but Ukrainian forces continue to hold their lines and repel most attacks.
Russia reports some success at Opytne in the south, pushing through defensive positions with reports of Russian air support there.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front —— (This sector runs south from the LOC Russian border due east of Kharkiv city to the Kreminna area, inclusive of the Svatove – Kreminna line.)
NSR
Russia attempted to counter attack northeast of Svatov and west of Kreminna but failed.
Donetsk Oblast —— (This sector runs southwest from the Kreminna area to the Donetsk Oblast boundry east of Donetsk and is inclusive of Mariupol)
It seems like what is left of Russian artillery is focusing on the LOC in support of Russian attacks around Bakhumt
Zaporizhizhia Front ——— (NEW – Separated out from the general overlap of Donetsk and Crimean fronts. Consists of Zaporizhishia Oblast to the coast and is inclusive of Melitopoly)
Widely scattered Russian artillery fire along the LOC.
Crimean front ——— (Consists of the remaining occupied Kherson Oblast to the border of Crimea)
Ukraine continues to consolidate and clear areas gained.
Explosions were reported in Skadovsk, Kherson region – HIMARS likely at it again.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Ukraine continues to consolidate its gains and is likely planning their next offensive.
Russia will continue to throw troops at Ukrainian defenses in the east to try to capture tactically insignificant objectives.
RUSSIA’S Next Moves -
First and foremost, Russia does not have the forces available to conduct any credible offensive (contrary to what some may say on FR). Its losses of officers/NCOs, turmoil at the general staff level, destruction/abandonment of thousands and thousands of vehicles/armor/tanks with no equivalent resupply in the near term along with Ukranian effective interdiction has It stuck in the Ukrainian mud.
So what is Russia trying to do to win this ‘war’.
1. It is increasingly evident that Russia is trying to prepare defensive positions and shorten supply lines before the winter hits.
2. Russia continues to try to mobilize and equip replacements for the tens (hundreds) of thousands of deaths and causalities it has suffered.
It seems that part of this strategy is based on the thought that Ukraine will suspend its operations for the winter, giving Russia some breathing room to reorganize and re-equip its forces as well as bring replacements on line.
How well will this likely work? I think Russia misjudges a lot.
First, with frozen ground, Ukraine can resume much of its mobile warfare tactics.
Second Ukraine has openly stated it will pursue the attack in the winter.
Third, Ukraine military will be better equipped and supplied to execute the war in the winter than Russia. This winter could bring a repeat of the lack of cold weather gear Russian forces faced at the start of war in February.
Fourth, Russia’s pull back from Kherson has exposed even more occupied territory to Ukrainian HIMARS and other systems, making Russia logistic support already damaged by the hit on the Kerch Bridge and other supply routes even more of a headache. (see yesterday’s post with map showing new HIMARS influence zone)
And fifth (though not final by any means) will be the internal power plays between the MOD and outside mercenaries (Wagner and Chechen). Any attempt to build up supplies for any future offensive (or just to hold off another Ukrainian offensive) will be challenged by Wagner et al for diversion to their continued unorganized attacks in the east. Their claims of victories in the east are largely for public consumption to get them leverage for more resources.
Bottom line, in the near term Russian is digging itself into a deeper hole, both figuratively and literally. They have totally lost all initiative in the conflict and are taking steps to delay the eventual further defeats. Whether or not putin realizes this is hard to say. His political life rests on keeping the ultra nationalists on his side or at least at bay. He has no game changers on the conventional warfare angle. His nuclear ploy could change the battlefield equation for a limited period, but would risk expansion of the war with direct NATO involvement – and the resulting demolition of his forces in Ukraine.
Hopefully, tomorrow I’ll be able to outline potential roads forward for Ukraine.
Belarus -
RUMORS that Russia is pulling out all its S300/S400 ADA missile batteries out of the country. Most probably for redeployment to Ukraine and most likely Crimea.
Iran -
Protests are down in portions of Iran but still strong in the northwestern half of the country.
The Biden administration’s negotiations over a revamped version of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal are dead as the result of massive anti-regime protests that have swept across the Islamic Republic, according to the former Trump administration’s State Department spokeswoman.
“I don’t see any room or any space for [the administration] to build back into” the long-stalled negotiations, Morgan Ortagus, who served under former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, said during a panel discussion Friday afternoon at the Richard Nixon Foundation’s Grand Strategy Summit in Washington, D.C. “It would be a political disaster in the U.S. and a disaster for the people of Iran who are rejecting this regime.”
How could the Biden administration “financially empower the very oppressors of the women and teenagers we’re supposed to be standing up for and standing with?” Ortagus asked.
OBSERVATION – In the long run, this is what Iran wants – no international agreement with meddling inspectors and unified sanctions. Just the past few months have revealed increased economic (and likely technological exchanges) with Russia and China. Iran likely will double down on development of a nuclear bomb – prime part of its global power goal. First to take out Israel, second to take control of the middle east (and its oil) and finally bring the “Great Satan” the US to heel.