Running late today.
Globalism / Great Reset –
400 - CO2 spewing private jets, took the global elite to Egypt to discuss how to restrict everyone else’s CO2 emissions.
The UK’s Daily Mail reported Monday that “officials who land a spot at the conference’s exclusive VIP restaurant will be able to dine out on an array of pricey meat and fish dishes served up during the 12-day climate conference in Sharm el-Sheikh this week. Those with a taste for the luxurious can snap up an angus beef medallion with sautéed potatoes for a pricey $100 (£90) or a creamy salmon for $40 (£35), after scoffing back a $50 (£43) seafood platter for starter.”
OBSERVATION – Hypocrisy? Off the charts. These are the same people, mind you, who want us to eat bugs. Then they also have the nerve to complain that the AC isn’t set low enough. Some animals are more equal than others.
Wuhan virus –
Kalifornia’s newscum is looking to force all grade school children to get the jab.
Yale University has issued a message to enrollees of the Spring 2023 semester. All must take a shot of the bivalent COVID-19 vaccine booster in order to attend.
OBSERVATION – With biden’s extension of the declaration of emergency for wuhan, plus the addition of the jab to the ‘recommended’ suite of vaccinations, expect more of this. Its about power people, not the virus.
Mayo Clinic has declined to consider a kidney transplant for an unvaccinated woman with stage-four kidney disease, she told Alpha News. That woman, Amy Broten, received a letter Nov. 1 informing her that her kidney transplant evaluation was denied.
“You have medical issues that need to be stabilized and/or improved prior to evaluation. The medical issues include: patient not willing to comply with the transplant team immunization requirements and recommendations,” the letter says.
Mayo Clinic said it cannot comment specifically on Broten’s case but confirmed that it requires transplant candidates to receive the COVID-19 vaccine.
“These patients have a higher risk of becoming severely ill from COVID-19. Mayo Clinic’s requirement for transplant patients follows current standards of care in accordance with national guidelines. There is also a critical shortage of lifesaving organs available,” a spokesperson said.
“Mayo Clinic takes seriously the responsibility to ensure that patients who receive an organ have the best possible outcome,” she continued. “Transplant candidates are already required to meet strict criteria, including being current on several vaccinations, undergoing preventive screenings and making healthy lifestyle changes.”
OBSERVATION – Clearly the staff at the Mayo clinic is unaware of the current status of the ‘science’ in that receiving the jab INCREASES life threatening conditions far beyond the now generally non-lethal wuhan virus. We need a Nuremburg tribunal – but won’t likely get one with progressive/Marxists in charge of the government and medical hierarchy.
Economy –
Intrigue and conspiracy are swirling around the collapse of the bit coin firm FTX. In a nutshell:
…’Crypto exchange FTX lent billions of dollars worth of customer assets to fund risky bets by its affiliated trading firm, Alameda Research, setting the stage for the exchange’s implosion, a person familiar with the matter said. … FTX Chief Executive Sam Bankman-Fried said in investor meetings this week that Alameda owes FTX about $10 billion, people familiar with the matter said.‘…(Wall Street Journal online)
FTX group has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBM), has stepped down as CEO. A new CEO has been appointed to maximize stakeholder recovery.
One of the big discussions are claims that democrats used FTX to launder 40 billion in aid to Ukraine back into its coffers via Aid for Ukraine,” which had the backing of crypto exchange FTX, staking platform Everstake and Ukraine’s Kuna exchange, will route donated crypto to the National Bank of Ukraine,. Sam Bankman-Fried was one of the largest donors of cash to Democrat candidates in the 2022 mid-term elections.
Others look at this as the beginning of the govt/WEF action to destroy crypto and force its digital currency on the country under the guise of the industry needing govt oversight to prevent such future disasters. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for crypto to be regulated after the FTX debacle.
“It shows the weaknesses of this entire sector,” Yellen told Bloomberg News on Saturday.
“In other regulated exchanges, you would have segregation of customer assets,” she said. “The notion you could use the deposits of customers of an exchange and lend them to a separate enterprise that you control to do leveraged, risky investments — that wouldn’t be something that’s allowed.”
OBSERVATION – Never let a crisis go unexploited. I’m not a crypto person, so some of this is foreign to me. But the implications towards federal control of the industry and a federal digital currency system is readily apparent, as Yellen stated above.
The U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said that the Democrats’ clinching of U.S. Senate control makes things easier for the Biden administration, but she would still like to see a debt ceiling increase approved before year-end in Congress’s post-election “lame duck” session.
Yellen told reporters on the sidelines of G20 summit meetings in Bali that Senate control by Democrats would ease the path for approving nominations and other legislative actions.
“We want to see the debt ceiling get done. If it got done in the lame duck, that would be great, as far as I’m concerned,” Yellen said.
OBSERVATION – Expect a lot of things to be pushed through in the coming months that will hammer the economy. How bold the democrats will be depend now on the outcome of the house races, having secured senate control for two more years.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Democratic Senate Majority leader, Chuck Schumer, said the midterm results showed the American people had rejected what he called the “violent rhetoric” of the Republican Party.
If the Democrats can enhance their Senate majority to 51-49, one will expect greater pressure by progressives to nuke the filibuster rule so that they can pass bills by simple majority. This will see gun control/confiscation legislation and possibly expansion of the USSC (and resulting leftist packing). This move will become even greater if the democrats some how retain control the House. At the moment Republicans stand at 211 seats (+7) and Democrats at 204 (-7) with 218 needed for a majority. Democrats are not out of it yet. Too many of the races with outcomes yet to be determined are located in California. Of the total pending races, some counts show republicans leading in only 10 of them.
OBSERVATION – Take note, democrats appear to think the ‘violent rhetoric’ (ie republicans are violent) motife/narrative is a winner and you can expect that over the next two years biden et al will take that and shift gears to a greater physical oppression of the opposition. Whether or not the general public actually sees that as the issue is unknown – but democrats are ramping it up as their mandate from the election. Red states had better start girding themselves for more potential direct conflict with DC.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Republicans lost the attempt to control the Senate with the Nevada vote. In fact, if republicans loose Georgia, democrats will have increased their control by one.
The republicans in the house are still 7 seats shy of control, with 20 or so outstanding races still too close to call.
The democrats claim the best midterm performance of the party in power in 20 years. The red wave became in part a blue wave.
There appears to be a groundswell of support to replace McConnel as the party leader in the senate. House republicans too, show growing dissatisfaction with McCarthy and promise a challenge to his leadership as well.
OBSERVATION – I held weakly to hopes that this election would be free of the overt stealing that was 2020. Nope, the democrats seamlessly transitioned their methods to hit key state races. That and complacent republican leadership (or rather lack thereof) in the house and senate has laid the path for further destruction of the American way.
The saying that is increasingly gaining credibility in my book is that “you can’t vote your way out of tyrrany” – sad statement on the current state of the nation.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west
Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
********
Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson City has ignited an ideological fracture between pro-war figures and Russian President Vladimir Putin, eroding confidence in Putin’s commitment and ability to deliver his war promises. The ever-increasing doubts among extreme Russian nationalists about Putin’s commitment to Russian ideology is reducing Putin’s appeal to the nationalist community, while mobilization and high casualties will likely continue to upset members of Russian society.
Wagner-affiliated channels are also turning on the Kremlin following the loss of Kherson, which contrasts with the general support for the decision among the milblogger community before today & may further elevate the influence of the siloviki faction.
OBSERVATION – Politics at the Kremlin over the course of the war is becoming even more bitter. Wagner and Chechen forces have had putins support – simply to keep them at bay. Now the fight is getting closer to putin himself. Already Wagner has started to create a military structure that could challenge the Russian military in places like Belgrod and others. Threats to putin’s power are rising and will he be able to survive this knife fight?
Logistics –
- The Russian air force had about 1,500 helicopters when Russia invaded Ukraine. Most (74 percent) were older transport helicopters though many were recent versions of the Cold War era Mi-8 transports and Mi-24 gunships. This helicopter force seemed formidable but the Russians had a shortage of pilots and maintainers.
The new Russian helicopters did not do well. The KA-52 gunship (introduced in 2011) was thought to be well equipped to handle modern portable anti aircraft missiles like the American Stinger. The Americans had updated the Stinger more than the anti-missile defenses of the Ka-52 could handle. Transport helicopters were even more vulnerable. After eight months of combat Russia had lost nearly a hundred helicopters, mainly to ground fire. There were also losses due to accidents and mechanical failures. It was obvious that the most modern Russian designs were not up to the demands of combat against well-equipped opponents.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- Russian military officers may be attempting to limit the cost of force generation by manufacturing justifications to avoid giving soldiers promised payments and benefits.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian counteroffensives continue to make ground and consolidate positions in and around Kherson
Fighting intensified again in the southeast around Bakhmut and to its northeast around Soledar yesterday, with some very fierce fighting again reported. Reinforced Russian units launched coordinated offensives and the region was heavily shelled, but Ukrainian forces continue to hold their lines and repel most attacks.
Russia reports some success at Opytne in the south, pushing through defensive positions with reports of Russian air support there.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front —— (This sector runs south from the LOC Russian border due east of Kharkiv city to the Kreminna area, inclusive of the Svatove – Kreminna line.)
NSR
Russia attempted to counter attack northeast of Svatov and west of Kreminna but failed.
Donetsk Oblast —— (This sector runs southwest from the Kreminna area to the Donetsk Oblast boundry east of Donetsk and is inclusive of Mariupol)
It seems like what is left of Russian artillery is focusing on the LOC in support of Russian attacks around Bakhumt
Zaporizhizhia Front ——— (NEW – Separated out from the general overlap of Donetsk and Crimean fronts. Consists of Zaporizhishia Oblast to the coast and is inclusive of Melitopoly)
Widely scattered Russian artillery fire along the LOC.
Crimean front ——— (Consists of the remaining occupied Kherson Oblast to the border of Crimea)
Ukraine continues to consolidate and clear areas gained.
Explosions were reported in Skadovsk, Kherson region – HIMARS likely at it again.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Ukraine continues to consolidate its gains and is likely planning their next offensive.
Russia will continue to throw troops at Ukrainian defenses in the east to try to capture tactically insignificant objectives.
RUSSIA’S Next Moves -
First and foremost, Russia does not have the forces available to conduct any credible offensive (contrary to what some may say on FR). Its losses of officers/NCOs, turmoil at the general staff level, destruction/abandonment of thousands and thousands of vehicles/armor/tanks with no equivalent resupply in the near term along with Ukranian effective interdiction has It stuck in the Ukrainian mud.
So what is Russia trying to do to win this ‘war’.
1. It is increasingly evident that Russia is trying to prepare defensive positions and shorten supply lines before the winter hits.
2. Russia continues to try to mobilize and equip replacements for the tens (hundreds) of thousands of deaths and causalities it has suffered.
It seems that part of this strategy is based on the thought that Ukraine will suspend its operations for the winter, giving Russia some breathing room to reorganize and re-equip its forces as well as bring replacements on line.
How well will this likely work? I think Russia misjudges a lot.
First, with frozen ground, Ukraine can resume much of its mobile warfare tactics.
Second Ukraine has openly stated it will pursue the attack in the winter.
Third, Ukraine military will be better equipped and supplied to execute the war in the winter than Russia. This winter could bring a repeat of the lack of cold weather gear Russian forces faced at the start of war in February.
Fourth, Russia’s pull back from Kherson has exposed even more occupied territory to Ukrainian HIMARS and other systems, making Russia logistic support already damaged by the hit on the Kerch Bridge and other supply routes even more of a headache. (see yesterday’s post with map showing new HIMARS influence zone)
And fifth (though not final by any means) will be the internal power plays between the MOD and outside mercenaries (Wagner and Chechen). Any attempt to build up supplies for any future offensive (or just to hold off another Ukrainian offensive) will be challenged by Wagner et al for diversion to their continued unorganized attacks in the east. Their claims of victories in the east are largely for public consumption to get them leverage for more resources.
Bottom line, in the near term Russian is digging itself into a deeper hole, both figuratively and literally. They have totally lost all initiative in the conflict and are taking steps to delay the eventual further defeats. Whether or not putin realizes this is hard to say. His political life rests on keeping the ultra nationalists on his side or at least at bay. He has no game changers on the conventional warfare angle. His nuclear ploy could change the battlefield equation for a limited period, but would risk expansion of the war with direct NATO involvement – and the resulting demolition of his forces in Ukraine.
Hopefully, tomorrow I’ll be able to outline potential roads forward for Ukraine.
Belarus -
RUMORS that Russia is pulling out all its S300/S400 ADA missile batteries out of the country. Most probably for redeployment to Ukraine and most likely Crimea.
Iran -
Protests are down in portions of Iran but still strong in the northwestern half of the country.
The Biden administration’s negotiations over a revamped version of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal are dead as the result of massive anti-regime protests that have swept across the Islamic Republic, according to the former Trump administration’s State Department spokeswoman.
“I don’t see any room or any space for [the administration] to build back into” the long-stalled negotiations, Morgan Ortagus, who served under former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, said during a panel discussion Friday afternoon at the Richard Nixon Foundation’s Grand Strategy Summit in Washington, D.C. “It would be a political disaster in the U.S. and a disaster for the people of Iran who are rejecting this regime.”
How could the Biden administration “financially empower the very oppressors of the women and teenagers we’re supposed to be standing up for and standing with?” Ortagus asked.
OBSERVATION – In the long run, this is what Iran wants – no international agreement with meddling inspectors and unified sanctions. Just the past few months have revealed increased economic (and likely technological exchanges) with Russia and China. Iran likely will double down on development of a nuclear bomb – prime part of its global power goal. First to take out Israel, second to take control of the middle east (and its oil) and finally bring the “Great Satan” the US to heel.
New week, what mayhem awaits us?
Economy –
Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve to keep rates high in 2023 as inflation remains strong after peaking in the fourth quarter of this year.
“The U.S. economy just skirts recession in 2023, but the landing doesn’t feel so soft as job growth slows meaningfully and the unemployment rate continues to rise,” the report said, predicting a 0.5% expansion next year. U.S. core inflation is expected to fall to 2.9% at end-2023.
“The cumulative effect of tight policy in 2023 spills over into 2024, resulting in two very weak years,” the report added.
OBSERVATION – This is an example of the kind of reports that have been circulating out there predicting a shallow to nonexistent recession for the US. You don’t crash the inflation rate from its current highs to the 2.9 range in such a short period – never been done with out a significant recession. With weakness across the whole spectrum of the economy, I think folks like Morgan Stanley are working with out dated models that don’t factor the reality in accurately.
The crash of FTX is rippling across other similar crypto markets. Hong Kong based AAX crypto exchange today suddenly announced the suspension of all operations, including trading, withdrawals, etc - promise that they will try to restart everything in 7-10 days.
OBSERVATION – Crypto must be either destroyed or forced into govt regulation in order for the govt mandated digital currencies to take hold. Govt can’t stand competition. The attack on exchanges is only the beginning, soon the different currencies themselves will face steeper assault. This developing crisis could be setting the stage for a new currency, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) .
Congressional Democratic leaders on Sunday vowed to tackle the nation’s debt ceiling in coming weeks, saying their party’s election victories offer them leverage even as Republicans have promised a potentially explosive fight.
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said they would act while President Joe Biden’s fellow Democrats control both chambers.
“Our best shot, I think, is ... to do it now,” Pelosi told ABC News’ “This Week” program. “Winning the Senate gave us a lot of leverage for how we go forward... in the lame duck,” she said.
OBSERVATION – More pork, more damage to the economy.
The Damocles Sword of a rail strike is still dangling over the heads of the American economy now in the post midterm era. SMART-TD Alternate National Legislative Director Jared Cassity told reporters that the frustration level among railroad workers is high due to intervention by Congress. He added that the current deal may not survive a vote by the union. Cassity stated that the likelihood of a strike is still in the realm of possibility.
President Biden announced a supplemental rule cracking down on methane emissions targeting the oil and gas industry at the same time that Biden is pressuring energy companies to lower prices at the pump. The new rule requires all drilling sites, including smaller wells, to find and plug methane leaks.
OBSERVATION - These rules come at a price that is eventually seen at the pump. This rule will also start forcing smaller companies out of the market due to excessive regulatory costs for compliance – further reducing production.
Biden / Harris watch –
Huge rumors surround biden and his 2024 plans. Many still don’t see him making it to the elections and are speculating on what might happen to shift the power around. One rumor is that biden will replace Kamala Harris with Gavin Newsom and then resign. This is considered to be a wild, outside the envelope move – to dump a colored woman for a rich white guy.
CW2/Domestic violence –
In an op-ed published by the New York Times, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is calling on her party to get “aggressive” towards Republicans after a disappointing senate race for the GOP.
OBSERVATION – I’m not going to waste endangered electrons on most of her claims. What is important is the continued rhetoric we see from the left that promotes a level of violence towards the right. Her verbiage is carefully tailored to be that of a political type, however, the hard core followers will skip over that part. Heard on a podcast recently that democrats consider violence like they do a thermostat, dialing it up or down as needed. This has been very evident and true the last few years.
Though generally filed under culture related ‘wars’, the current hyper-radical and locally violent transgender movement is taking charge at warp speed. On Nov. 2, 2022, Gary Bauer wrote this in his Campaign for Working Families: End of Day Report:
• “The Biden Administration and congressional Democrats are pushing legislation and regulation that gives trans ideology supremacy over everything, including religious liberty.”
• “If you have a religious objection to the bizarre idea that your biology can be ‘changed’ or ‘fixed,’ the left is going to smash you using the full power of government and social media censorship.”
OBSERVATION - Essentially, Bauer said if you believe there are only two genders for religious reasons, you should know that Democrats believe trans ideology is more important than religious freedom, and they will not hesitate to use the power of the govt against you. Add to it all the other things the govt will use its full force upon the citizens on, then the potential for conflict between the citizens and govt rise proportionately as citizens refuse to grant govt to revoke their rights and govt looses the consent of the governed.
We also see Antifa et al, gluing itself in support of the trans movement like white on rice. This creates a two front attack on citizens.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The republicans are coming closer to eeking out a slight majority in the House, at a level far below what preelection polls indicated. The Senate is on track to see a net gain in democrats.
OBSERVATION – Republicans have a very short window to get their act together on new leadership in both houses. What democrats would love to see going into 2024 is an internal civil war within the republican party with would help them immensely on the presidential side.
The House is scheduled to vote on 31 legislative items this week under suspension of the rules. Since the Republicans are likely to take control of the House in January, Democrats are under pressure to pass FY2023 spending bills and enact the party’s legislative priorities. Congress is facing a 16 December deadline to fund the government.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
A Middlesex County, New Jersey, man was arrested today for transmitting via the internet a manifesto containing threats to attack a synagogue and Jewish people, U.S. Attorney Philip R. Sellinger announced. Omar Alkattoul, 18, of Sayreville, New Jersey, was arrested this morning and is charged by complaint with one count of transmitting a threat in interstate and foreign commerce on or about Nov. 1, 2022. He is scheduled to appear this afternoon before U.S. Magistrate Judge Jessica S. Allen in Newark federal court.
“No one should be targeted for violence or with acts of hate because of how they worship,” U.S. Attorney Sellinger said. “According to the complaint, this defendant used social media to send a manifesto containing a threat to attack a synagogue based on his hatred of Jews.
OBSERVATION – The threat from Islamic radicals – one that triggered the origin of the “Threat Matrix” title thread so many years ago is still alive and well. Given the lawless turmoil and diversion of anti-terror assets to the pseudo threat of white, Christian nationalist domestic terrorism will permit these Islamic groups to grow and strengthen. This guy was just stupid enough to announce himself – many, many more operate in the shadows.
China –
Biden is holding his first face-to-face meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping since he became president. This face-to-face meeting between the American and Chinese leaders has partly been set up for the “optics”, says an expert on Asian politics - but at the same time, the talks are “not entirely meaningless”.
For both men, the main purpose of the meeting is to not look “weak” on the world stage, says Prof Pierre Landry from the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
OBSERVATION – Xi is feeling confident in his powers, leaving the country when in the past he refused – fearing possible coups.
China’s mega-city of Guangzhou, which became the “epicenter” of the current Chinese coronavirus outbreak this week, announced on Thursday it would shutter schools and universities.
Several other cities posted record-high daily infections, including Beijing. Although the Chinese Communist Party has admitted no errors with its heavy-handed “zero-Covid” lockdown policies, health officials rushed to reassure the public that some draconian restrictions would be lifted and citywide lockdowns would be avoided.
China’s state-run Global Times fumbled to explain the “complicated and severe epidemic situation” in Guangzhou, where the “source of some sporadic positive cases was not clear,” “the risk of community transmission was high,” and “infections have now burst out in multiple points.”
“After China shortened the quarantine period for people entering the country from overseas to ‘7+3’ days in the middle of this year, some voices attributed the latest surge in Guangzhou infections to the border entry measures, arguing that it would be better to extend the quarantine time,” the Global Times wrote.
OBSERVATION – China continues to shoot itself in the foot with its zero-Covid policy. Damaging its economy and angering the citizenry. However, barring a vicious coup, Xi has established himself in the leadership seat and these lock downs no longer concern him as he focuses on preparations for war.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west
Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
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Russian Foreign Ministry will not accept any conditions for talks with Ukraine, including withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, - deputy FM of Russia Hrushko
NOTE – This is one of the items that has seen a lot of rumors following the Kherson pullout.
After Wagner mercenaries made an ISIS-style execution video, Evgeny Prigozhin has threatened his fellow Russian elites, hinting they are next. Knives are out as the power play continues between Wagner and MOD.
Kerch Bridge update –
Per Russian state media, repair work (and a partial reopening) of the dropped outside lanes should be finished by December, with a full resumption of traffic expected by next March. The bridge should reopen at half capacity utilizing the new sections on December 20th, with the inner sections undergoing replacement until March.
NOTE – Vehicle side of the bridge system. No (or very little) truck traffic projected. The rail bridge portion still remains out of commission – the bigger hit to Russian resupply/logistics.
RUMINT –
Some say Putin likely elevated Russian Army General Sergey Surovikin to theatre commander and let him withdraw from western Kherson on condition that he take the rest of Donetsk Oblast using Russian forces recouped from western Kherson as well as newly-arriving mobilized servicemen.
Logistics –
- The Kherson withdrawl has permitted Russia to redesignate priorities to the east and potential development of a Ukrainian offensive southward out of Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- Russian forces and occupation officials are forcibly mobilizing men in Russian-occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, and forcing them to construct trenches and defensive fortifications in the city
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.
RUMINT –
Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces are withdrawing from the left bank of the Dnipro River and concentrating forces and equipment in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, and Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting increased west of Kreminna and was intensive again east of Bakhmut. Russian contractors reportedely continue to take significant losses in this region despite recent rotations and reinforcements.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove. This follows other reports of the same.
Russian shelling was heavy in the Sumy region, near Kharkiv, north of Donetsk and around Bakhmut. In most other impacted regions shelling was mostly more sporadic.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front —— (This sector runs south from the LOC Russian border due east of Kharkiv city to the Kreminna area, inclusive of the Svatove – Kreminna line.)
See 24 hr summary
Donetsk Oblast —— (This sector runs southwest from the Kreminna area to the Donetsk Oblast boundry east of Donetsk and is inclusive of Mariupol)
See 24 hr summary
Zaporizhizhia Front ——— (NEW – Separated out from the general overlap of Donetsk and Crimean fronts. Consists of Zaporizhishia Oblast to the coast and is inclusive of Metropole)
NSR
Crimean front ——— (Consists of the remaining occupied Kherson Oblast to the border of Crimea)
Ukraine is working to reestablish vandalized utilities and communications in Kherson urban area. Arrests of Russian soldiers in civilian clothes continues. Ukraine’s art’y hits troop concentration in cross-river strikes on Dnipriany, Novooleksiivka and Kairy.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Russia still trying to pull the pieces together while Ukraine plans for its next operation to maintain the initiative it has.
The Ukrainians will likely use combat power recouped from the liberation of western Kherson to reinforce their ongoing counter-offensive in Luhansk Oblast or to open a new counter-offensive drive elsewhere. Where will it strike next?
1. Some popular talk is that Ukraine should continue the attack across the Dnipir River. The ultimate goal would be a run on Crimea that the Russians greatly fear. This is seriously flawed on many levels. The first being the significant barrier the river creates in the first place. Ukraine exploited that fact through its attacks on bridges – essentially isolating the Russian forces and leading to their eventual rapid retreat rather than losing a substantial portion of its army. A river crossing of that magnitude is beyond their capability. They may potentially attempt a crossing at the dam on the upstream end, but will need a month or more to repair the destroyed sections to make them capable to handle the weight of combat equipment.
A corollary is the suggestion that Ukraine launch an amphibious assault on a small spit of land directly south of Kherson city and flank the Russian defenses on the south. This fails due to the logistics necessary and poor conditions necessary for a successful attack.
I think overall Ukraine will maintain a threat of further operations in order to freeze Russian forces to prevent a quick run into Crimea.
2. Another failed idea is for Ukraine to attack into Russia. This is failed because it takes away its stated goal of liberating Ukrainian territory. It can extend control with its long range fire capability, no need to actually take ground.
3. Accelerate the offensive in the east. This is a practical redeployment as it is appearing that Russia may be reevaluating its efforts to take the Donbas region using forces redeployed from the Kherson region. A continued push towards Svatove and Kreminna would seriously impact resupply to the Donbas effort from the north. Once solidly connected to the region’s North-South highway network, it could swing southward and pressure Russian forces to defend captured territory in Luhask Oblast – coming in behind Russian defenses again.
4. Attack southward from . This has a whole lot of plusses behind it. Centrally located for the logistics tail necessary with a good North – South road network leading to the rail hub of Metropole. If they could push to the sea, Ukraine could then pivot east or west. A pivot west would endanger Crimea again and could (emphasis could) be supported by a limited river crossing attempt at the Dnipir. Limited resupply would come into play and Russia would be faced with fighting a two direction war as the initial offensive would flank the Russian defenses along the Dnipir. A pivot east would threaten Russian forces trying to take Donbas and cause another two front assault - from the west and north.
What to do, what to do. Cant read minds, but Russia seems concerned about #4 as it is being reported that evacuated Kherson forces are being redeployed in the Metropole and Ukrainian civilians being forced to construct defensive positions. Russia is also fixed on trying to breath life into the Donbas assault.
I would also expect that Ukraine will continue to nail Russian supply lines coming from Crimea to keep the force weakened.
Finally, I expect to see Ukraine beefing up the east as it appears that Russia is desperate to resume its Donbas campaign – driven by Wagner and Chechen elements. The ability of Russia to launch a successful campaign is minimal and would likely run into the same meat grinder they’ve been facing for the past nine months, while fearing a pivot south from Svatove.
Pakistan -
Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan called on his supporters to resume his Haqiqi Azadi protest march on the Pakistani capital of Islamabad. “I will not back off as long as I’m alive,” Khan said, indicating that he would join his supporters in the city of Rawalpindi while pursuing early elections.
OBSERVATION- Things there are still teetering on the edge of a civil war within a nuclear armed country.
Israel –
See Syrian airstrikes below.
Iran -
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Monday morning heavily bombarded bases and headquarters of Kurdish opposition parties in the Kurdistan Region, using suscide drones, Fatah rocket and heavy artillery. Kurdish casualties were confirmed
“The IRGC’s attacks will continue until the terrorist groups are disarmed.” - Commander of Hamza Seyyed al-Shohada (AS). “ In today’s operation, we targeted the militants’ headquarters with missiles and suicide and combat drones. We also targeted the border headquarters with artillery.”
OBSERVATION – One of the scape goats of the ongoing protests in Iran are the Kurdisn people. The woman who’s death triggered the riots was a Kurd and the heaviest rioting has occurred in northwestern Iran adjacent to Iraqi’s Kurdistan region.
A court in Tehran on Sunday handed down what is believed to be the first death sentence relating to the anti-government protests that have gripped parts of the country for almost two months.
According to a report by a news agency affiliated to the regime’s judiciary, the Revolutionary Court on Tehran sentenced to death a person – no name or gender given – accused of setting fire to a government facility.
OBSERVATION – With more to come. What they forget is that they create martyrs with this kind of policy – you can only kill martyr once.
Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Aerospace Commander Amir Ali Hajzadeh said the military has finished construction of a hypersonic ballistic missile capable of maneuvering in and out of the atmosphere and would be utilized to target the “advanced anti-missile systems” utilized by Iran’s enemies.
OBSERVATION – Wasn’t but a few years ago the Iranian capability to produce its own weapons systems was considered a joke – crude copies of western hand me downs. Since then Iran has made great strides towards creating quality systems. We have been seeing some of this as their drone technology starts to take center stage. A hypersonic warhead would be a big step, but step back and consider the technology. A standard warhead is already a ‘hypersonic’ system. What Iran may be accomplishing is a MIRV – like system that permits the warhead a degree of maneuverability. Thus Iran is likely overstating its achievement for propaganda purposes. But I wouldn’t underestimate some of its technology development at the moment.
Iraq -
See Iranian attack in the Kurdistan region above.
Syria -
A string of explosions hit the Shayrat Airbase (SE. Homs) after it was bombed by Israel forces overnight. Apparently, ammo depots were targeted. Secondaries & fires were reported ongoing in the aftermath.