Saw that I pinged yesterday’s post to myself (not enough coffee) woops.
Voting day – get out there and vote like your life depends on it.
Globalism / Great Reset –
British PM Rishi Sunak has said it is “morally right” that Britain honours its climate change commitments in his speech at Cop27, but he made no mention of paying reparations after Boris Johnson said the country cannot afford to do so.
He said he believed the conference could deliver on the promises, and announced the UK was tripling its funding to help nations adapt to the impacts of climate change. There is a big question over where all this money Rishi Sunak is promising is supposed to come from. Britain’s public finances are in a precarious state.
OBSERVATION - Global warming / climate change is nothing but a giant wealth distribution scheme.
Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) may require a network of international deals to stop state-backed money from infringing on other countries’ sovereignty, European Union Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said on Monday.
The bloc of 27 nations is considering a digital version of the euro, but needs to resolve issues such as how a digital euro will work for cross-border payments.
“How do you avoid the risk of infringing the sovereignty of other jurisdictions through a digital currency … while developing a digital currency with global ambition, as the digital euro will be?” said Gentiloni, who is responsible for economic policy at the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm. Gentiloni was speaking at a conference on the digital euro organized by the Commission and the European Central Bank.
OBSERVATION- Individual countries pursuing CBDCs but they will need to be cross compatible. Thus the eventual justification by the GGR/WEF for a singular CBDC (that just happens to track your social credit score as well)
Wuhan virus –
Judicial Watch, a government watchdog organization, announced Tuesday that it filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit against the U.S Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) for insufficiently responding to a records request for COVID-19 vaccine safety studies.
OBSERVATION – This is a key step in documenting fraud in the testing and approval of the jabs – fraud that could strip any immunity from lawsuits away from Pfizer and Moderna and may even include govt officials in the CDC and FDA.
21.8 million excess deaths — that’s the world estimate as of October 24, 2022, dating back from January 1, 2020. That number was sub 5 million before the vaccine rollout, and although confirmed COVID deaths have flattened out, cumulative excess mortality continues to rise. And that estimate of 21.8 million excess deaths could very well be as high as 28 million.
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
OBSERVATION – Excess deaths – good reason for there not to be any amnesty for those who pushed the jab.
Economy –
Recent rain over the Mississippi watershed has risen river levels, permitting more unrestricted barge traffic.
Consumers in the North East are likely to shoulder the highest energy bills in 25 years this winter and could face shortages. New England and the Mid-Atlantic are now more dependent on gas than before due to the shutdown of coal power plants and the failure of green alternatives to replace them. Half of the electricity generated in New England and New York comes from gas, and heating may take priority over generating power.
OBSERVATION - Go green and freeze to death in the dark.
Biden / Harris watch –
biden regime’s next two years hang on this vote.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Biden over the past few days has declared that his administration (and not some future one) will completely shut down the coal/oil/and gas industries. Putting aside the straight economic and practical considerations that would normally cause such a claim to thrown into the garbage bin, this one (combined with his ‘threats’ against those who don’t vote democrat) require closer examination. The only way he could effectively even make an attempt is to nationalize those industries. Such an action would throw the country into complete turmoil. Are the democrats that power hungry to take such a brazen action? Their time is short and they may actually try to run a scorched earth effort prior to being replaced by a republican congress – while they still have the votes.
Probability is small as it would likely destroy any hopes of a 2024 retention of the WH, but the deep state may be desperate enough to attempt it. Biden (or his handlers) sure seems to aggressively want to pursue it.
In a letter to John “Bert” Russ, Deputy Chief & Elections Coordinator for the Department of Justice by Florida Department of State General Counsel Brad McVay, the DeSantis administration warns that under Florida statute, DOJ monitors “are not permitted” inside Florida polling locations.
The DeSantis administration will in turn dispatch its own election integrity monitors to ensure that the federal government does not interfere in Florida’s election process. The apparent elections overstep by the Biden administration could be perceived as a form of election day intimidation.
This follows biden administration announcement that the DOJ will monitor polls in 24 states to ensure voting law compliance.
OBSERVATION – Evidence of the continued growth in the gap between biden’s lawless overreach into this election cycle and an aggressive push back by the state(s). Question is will the feds try to push the issue and will Florida law enforcement cuff them and march them out.
Word out of Portland is that some businesses are boarding up in anticipation of Antifa et al riots in response to the potential red wave that could upset blue Portland and the rest of the state. After Trump’s 2016 win, riots broke out causing substantial damage. Rumors are the same is being planned for again.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Election day will it be fair or will the left come up with another way to cheat?
China –
63 PLA aircraft and 4 PLAN vessels around our surrounding region were detected Nov. 7.
OBSERVATION – I’ll need to pay closer attention. That is a high aircraft count.
China’s foreign ministry says that Britain must stop any form of official exchanges with Taiwan, following plans by a British minister to visit Taiwan - Reuters
OBSERVATION – Standard Chinese threat.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russia appears to be focusing more on a missile campaign targeting electrical infrastructure to stress Ukraine as winter approaches.
Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
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Logistics –
- N Korea denying it is shipping ammunition to support the Russian invasion.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- Local uprisings of forced conscripts against their assigned military leadership.
Economic Impact –
- Europe’s quick response to procure energy backup supplies and reactivation of coal/nuclear facilities have taken the edge off of Russia’s gas weapon.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The situation on the Russian front lines around Svatove is reportedly chaotic. It seems newly mobilized Russian units were involved in shelling friendly forces due to failed communications and no commanders. These units have very low training and morale.
Russian forces continue with constant localized offensives on Bakhmut, where private contractors and more elite units are active, but reports Bakhmut is about to fall are not accurate. Russian shelling remained intensive yesterday around Bakhmut, around Svatove (where they were potentially firing on their own positions at one point), and north of Kherson. In most other areas there were numerous artillery strikes, but none too intense..
Russian air/missile and drones strikes continued yesterday and overnight, but remained at relatively low levels.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Russian occasional shelling in the southern areas of the Sumy region overnight.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Fight around Svatove continues to see Ukrainian gains, albeit small. Ukrainian military captured 21 mobilised men from Moscow region near Svatove.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russia continues to enter the meat grinder around Bahkmut. Yesterday saw some scattered advances by Russian/Wagner forces, but nothing that indicated any kind of substantial break out was imminent.
Fighting continued at the town of Pavlivka with more reports of heavy Russian losses.
Commercial satellite imagery and ground reports indicate that Wagner forces are establishing a dragons teeth defensive line around Melitopol.
FOLLOW UP ON THE DISASTEROUS RUSSIAN ATTACK ON PAVLIVKA.
Much of the information on the battle came from the Russian side. Russian Milbloggers have been very vocal about the disaster, the 155th and general management of the war. Contrary to some opinions I’ve read on FR, the information out there was not made up by pro-Ukranian elements, but were obtained from pro-Russian sources.
The disastrous attack reportedly took place Oct 30-31 was lead by the 155th Naval infantry (Marines) with support from the 40th Naval infantry (Marines). The 155th reportedly was seriously depleted in man power and was reinforced by the 40th – also heavily depleted.
The 155th gained initial attention in February, when 220 of the 155th’s marines refused to deploy to into Ukraine. The unit suffered heavy losses in the battle for Kyiv. It was considered one of the few “elite” brigades remaining. But heavy losses suggest that when it attacked Pavlivka it had fewer than 3 BTGs available.
According to Russian milbloggers (and some survivor accounts) the commander of the attack did not have the proper equipment for the attack and artillery spotters were not doing their job. Artillery was reportedly off by 500m or more and tanks just drove around till they collected a mine or rocket.
Much of the battle has been pieced together by OSINT gatherers from Russian milboggers on various social media accounts such as Telegram, as well as survivors posts. The Russian MOD acknowledges the defeat, though they deliberately misrepresent the losses.
The 155th/40th attacked Pavlivka from the east, coming out of a forested area into farmland and very open terrain. Ukraine mud conditions pretty much kept them road bound. The line of attack as it approached the city narrowed into a wedge of land lined on the north and south by a tree line. Russian tanks proceeded without any significant infantry support and some units got into the edge of the town before the trap was sprung. Ukranian forces has set this area up as an armor kill zone – with excellent fields of fire for ATGM systems and soon unleashed hell on the Russian forces. I watched geolocated videos of part of the ambush. The lead tank was hit and the rest of the column just comes to a stop – nice big, fat armor targets that were stationary and soon went up in smoke. Tanks that made it to the city were just hunted down by Ukraine infantry (because they lacked infantry support). Some tried to pull back but ran into the same kill zone. What few infantry that made it to the town area turned and tried to escape, traveling all bunched up, and trying to hide together in groups of 20 or so. Ukrainian artillery made short work of them (video’s I saw of this phase were not pretty).
End result, 300+ dead are reported, probably another 900 WIA or MIA. Many consider the 155th to be a unit in name only now.
Moral of the story – As the ‘Phase 2’ Russian war effort has ground on, Russia has quickly unlearned the lessons of the initial phase of the war. They revert to the tactic of frontal assaults without any kind of combined arms coordination and maneuver. This was a poorly planned and even more poorly executed attack. This scenario is playing itself out across the front in Eastern Ukraine. The loss of officers and experienced NCOs combined with the beyond green mobilized conscripts is making matters worse, not better for Russia and its forces.
Crimean front ———
More defensive preparations east of the Dnipir River. Further reports of wide scale looting by Russian forces. Russian sources claimed that Ukraine is massing for an attack on Kherson – most likely propaganda in order to force more Ukranians to leave the region.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Not much change so far from previous weeks. Weather appears to be the biggest factor in the tempo of operations by both sides. Ukraine continues to slowly push in the east, while looking carefully at the Russian defensive plans in the south.
Ukraine’s power grid is significantly damaged and the country is struggling to restore power. Russia may have found one method to successfully attack the grid - that by over whelming Ukrainian ADA capabilities by firing a mix of missiles and Iranian drones at targets. However, this requires a lot of missiles and drones and the observed reduction in those attacks suggest Russian is running short of both.
Poland -
U.S. and Polish officials announced the construction of a new U.S. military logistics hub at Poland’s Powidz Air Base, praising it as a key expansion of American support to NATO. The logistics hub will provide fueling facilities for NATO and US Air Force aircraft, as well as a US Army combat aviation brigade stationed at the base. The U.S. and Poland have also planned the construction of hangers and warehouse facilities to support the US aircraft stationed at Powidz.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, accused the Serbian government of deliberately “sabotaging dialogue” and attempting to destabilize the country amid the growing spat over license plates that have set the Balkans on edge. The accusations come as ethnic Serbians employed by the government of Kosovo have walked off their jobs in protest of the license plate mandates, including ten members of parliament, one state prosecutor, and 576 police officers. Serb politician Goran Rakic denounced the Kosovo government, saying, “We are on our land, and we will not give up. There is no withdrawal. Long live Serbia!” Representatives from NATO say it has urged calm between the countries but added the alliance’s KFOR Peacekeeping Mission “stands vigilant” to respond to any escalations. (FO)
OBSERVATION – So far, just rhetoric and chest thumping. Serbia does have the capacity to attack Kosovo, but it will also suffer a lot of casualities as NATO responds.
Israel –
Ukraine’s president Zelensky has called Israeli elected PM Netanyahu to congratulated him for his victory.
Finally, Biden on Monday congratulated Binyamin Netanyahu on winning a new term as Israeli prime minister, in a call that came four days after final results were announced and the outgoing caretaker prime minister Lapid conceded defeat.
Iran -
Protests continue with Iranian youngsters desecrating posters and statues of Quds Force Commander slain in a US drone strike.
OBSERVATION - Protestors are becoming bolder and bolder with time as well as gaining support.
Still slightly dazed over the election results. Didn’t build my hopes up for the red tsunami but clearly didn’t expect the implosion that occurred.
Even here in the deep red Redoubt state of Montana things got tense as it appeared it would allow its new congressional district to fall to a democrat. Currently Zinke (R) has a 4% lead over Trannel with 66% of precincts reporting. Early results from the liberal enclaves of Bozangelas (Bozeman MT) and Missoulafornia (Missoula MT) put Trannel up early.
Invasion of Illegals -
The US Department of Homeland Security wants to deport the illegal immigrant accused of assaulting House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband with a hammer.
However, San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins said Thursday that she will refuse to turn the suspect over to ICE officials citing the San Francisco’s sanctuary city policies which ban departments and officials from assisting immigration officers with detentions or deportations.
Jenkins said in a statement hours after US Immigration and Customs Enforcement publicly disclosed the hold on David DePape, “San Francisco is a sanctuary city and our policy is sacred.”
She added, “We will not be collaborating or coordinating with ICE.”
OBSERVATION – Was wondering when this conflict would raise its head.
Biden / Harris watch –
A ‘lid’ was called on biden as election results were being tallied. As noted later, it appears that biden will come out of this politically stronger.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Portland Police are patrolling downtown after Antifa announced midterm riot plans on Twitter targeting office of Rene for Portland. Three militants in black bloc have reportedly been arrested already. Antifa are telling comrades to come prepared.
OBSERVATION – Portland and in particular down town businesses, were already fearing an outbreak of violence. So far action has been limited and virtually nothing similar happening anywhere else in the nation.
The unanticipated split decision from yesterday’s voting is not going to stabilize the red-blue split in the country, but will likely encourage the blue to double down on its violent rhetoric towards the right. With that, red will double down its resistance to the left’s agenda. Political violence can easily be increased as a result. Thus the next two years will be even more perilous now than ever. Will be assessing this even more as the week progresses.
See Political Front for more of my views.
POLITICAL FRONT –
I won’t go too far into the disastrous results for the republicans. There were a few bright spots but overall, the performance was over sold and underwhelming. The pundits on both sides will be bleating about this for some weeks to come.
One component that many on the right though was outlandish was the blatant, over the top claims that our ‘democracy’ will fall if the red wave materializes and life as we know it will end. Is it possible that democrat polling noted that such a doomsday message will strike a good target? Some already note that gen Z may have responded in turnout, swaying the vote. IDK, but the unity in message may have gone beyond an act of desperation.
Biden’s doomday message – if a valid contributor to democrats dodging the apparent red wave, may severely limit Trump’s aspirations for reelection. This destroys common sense given that during this election cycle he continued to draw mammoth crowds and will likely continue if he runs for president. However, presidential campaign dynamics are different in many ways from local election dynamics. The fallout from the mids need to be thoroughly scrubbed to sort out.
There were the standard questionable voting reports. Pushback from 2020 did seal some of the gaps, while now alert republicans closely monitored other areas of cheating. With dawn’s light irregularities and cheating may become more apparent.
At best, republicans will take control of the house and remain split in the Senate. This will increase the partisan fighting in Congress to the next higher level and constipate much of the left’s political agenda.
I expect to see the knives come out for republican congressional leadership such as McConnell who are seen as snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in how they withdrew support for candidates just because Trump endorsed them.
The left, OTOH was already preparing to double down its efforts to shove its agenda down the throats of Americans as the minority party. Now that they are not the minority many thought they would be at this stage will embolden them even more.
The fighting in congress will also tie their hands to a degree in their opposition to biden, who I fully expect will double down on EO’s and administrative / regulatory actions to bypass congress even more to push his agenda through. Delay, obfuscate and ignore any congressional efforts to the contrary – something democrats have honed to a very sharp edge over the years.
At this stage of the election returns - biden appears to have strengthened his position as the leader of the democrat party rather than folding and facing forced removal.
China –
As noted yesterday, the number of Chinese aircraft into Taiwan’s ADZ was unusual. 63 planes was record number of aircraft.
North/South Korea –
Overnight NK launched a SRBM, the first for several days. The SRBM flew 290 km at apogee of 30 km at top speed of Mach 6
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russia appears to be focusing more on a missile campaign targeting electrical infrastructure to stress Ukraine as winter approaches.
Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
********
In previous posts, I’ve noted the intelligence and reporting by Russian milbloggers. They have known for spreading propaganda on Russian ‘successes’, but have also opened a window to Russian failures. Along with Wagner Group and Chechen mercenary leaders – they have driven the nationalist push behind putin. As such they shouldn’t be automatically ruled out – especially when their posts see support from other sources.
The Russian MoD has remained remarkably tight-lipped about milblogger critiques of Russian failures throughout the war in Ukraine — unlike the Kremlin, which will occasionally indirectly address milblogger narratives. The MoD’s public response to milblogger outcry indicates that some Russian milbloggers have considerable leverage to shape MoD interactions in the information space and additionally suggests that the situation in Pavlivka is dire enough to warrant a response.
OSINT is multidimensional in sources and evaluation of those sources for accuracy. It is foolish to issue a blanket discount of Russian sources without evaluation of just what they are saying and if there is evidence to back up their reporting. That is something I keep in mind. The Pavlivka attack is one such event.
Logistics –
- RUMINT. Sky News reports Russia flew €140m in cash and a selection of captured UK and US weapons to Iran in return for dozens of deadly drones for its war in Ukraine, a security source has claimed.
- Iranian state-run outlet Nour News Agency reported that Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev arrived in Tehran on November 8, likely to discuss the potential sale of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues to be significant east of Bakhmut and north of Donetsk, with the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south around Kherson made gains yesterday. Russian shelling was mostly more sporadic in all impacted areas yesterday.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Widely scattered Russian artillery strikes.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
More Russian attacks in the Bakhmut region reported repulsed by Ukraine.
Donetsk Oblast ——
More fighting northeast of Donetsk with some supporting artillery fire. Additional Russian attacks against Pavlivka.
Crimean front ———
Ukrainian forces have liberated Snihurivka in Kherson Oblast, likely triggering Russia to blow up several bridges to the south of the city that cross a southward flowing small tributary of the Dnipir. The bridge destruction may indicate that Russia is facing being overrun or just spooked by the attack.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Missile attack alerts nationwide as I type this morning.
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Nov 7th for Kherson has come and gone. However there may be hints that Ukraine is stepping up its offensive with the capture of Snihurivka. RUMINT that Russian forces may be on the verge of another panicked retreat given that Russia has put the untrained conscripts on the front while withdrawing its higher quality troops. The next few day could clarify things.
Otherwise, no significant changes foreseen ( but can change, given the dynamics of the war so far).
Russian attacks against Pavlivka, in the face of the debacle of the 155th continues to point to Russia’s desire to get Ukrainian artillery systems far enough away from rail lines that can be used to get men and munitions to the southern front until the Kersch Bridge can be restored. However, Russian forces are so depleted that there is very little chance of success. The 155th (and the supporting 40th) were some of their better manned and equipped units. Now Russia is stuck with far less capable units backfilled with untrained forced conscripts.
Israel –
See Syria on airstrike –
Within the past three years, F-35Is of Israel Air Force have conducted tens of airstrikes against IRGC backed proxies in eastern Syria. Tonight’s airstrike aims to disrupt plans of Iran’s Islamic Regime for sending weapons & fuel to Lebanon’s Hezbollah via Al-Qaim.
Iran -
See Syria on probable IAF airstrike on a convoy to supply Hezebollah in Lebanon
Protests continue throughout the country. Iran carried out the first executions of two people in Zahedan against the backdrop of protests.
The European Union is considering expanding sanctions against Iran and coordinating them with other countries in response to Iran’s supplying weapons to Russia to be used against Ukraine.
Syria -
A suspected Israeli airstrike hit a convoy of trucks that had just entered Syria from Iran enroute to Lebanon.
Though not confirmed by Israel, it appears IAF targeted a convoy of trucks belonging to IRGC affiliated Hashd al-Shaabi (PMU) near Al-Bukamal, Deir Ez Zor (close to Iraq-Syria border). Several militants have lost their lives. One of these trucks was suspected to be carrying missiles.
OBSERVATION - Iran may have tried this convoy action because Israel has gotten very good at interdicting anything flown into Damascus. just shows that Israeli intel continues to be very good and timely.