Replies

New week, what mayhem awaits us?

Economy –

Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve to keep rates high in 2023 as inflation remains strong after peaking in the fourth quarter of this year.
“The U.S. economy just skirts recession in 2023, but the landing doesn’t feel so soft as job growth slows meaningfully and the unemployment rate continues to rise,” the report said, predicting a 0.5% expansion next year. U.S. core inflation is expected to fall to 2.9% at end-2023.
“The cumulative effect of tight policy in 2023 spills over into 2024, resulting in two very weak years,” the report added.

OBSERVATION – This is an example of the kind of reports that have been circulating out there predicting a shallow to nonexistent recession for the US. You don’t crash the inflation rate from its current highs to the 2.9 range in such a short period – never been done with out a significant recession. With weakness across the whole spectrum of the economy, I think folks like Morgan Stanley are working with out dated models that don’t factor the reality in accurately.

The crash of FTX is rippling across other similar crypto markets. Hong Kong based AAX crypto exchange today suddenly announced the suspension of all operations, including trading, withdrawals, etc - promise that they will try to restart everything in 7-10 days.

OBSERVATION – Crypto must be either destroyed or forced into govt regulation in order for the govt mandated digital currencies to take hold. Govt can’t stand competition. The attack on exchanges is only the beginning, soon the different currencies themselves will face steeper assault. This developing crisis could be setting the stage for a new currency, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) .

Congressional Democratic leaders on Sunday vowed to tackle the nation’s debt ceiling in coming weeks, saying their party’s election victories offer them leverage even as Republicans have promised a potentially explosive fight.
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said they would act while President Joe Biden’s fellow Democrats control both chambers.
“Our best shot, I think, is ... to do it now,” Pelosi told ABC News’ “This Week” program. “Winning the Senate gave us a lot of leverage for how we go forward... in the lame duck,” she said.

OBSERVATION – More pork, more damage to the economy.

The Damocles Sword of a rail strike is still dangling over the heads of the American economy now in the post midterm era. SMART-TD Alternate National Legislative Director Jared Cassity told reporters that the frustration level among railroad workers is high due to intervention by Congress. He added that the current deal may not survive a vote by the union. Cassity stated that the likelihood of a strike is still in the realm of possibility.

President Biden announced a supplemental rule cracking down on methane emissions targeting the oil and gas industry at the same time that Biden is pressuring energy companies to lower prices at the pump. The new rule requires all drilling sites, including smaller wells, to find and plug methane leaks.

OBSERVATION - These rules come at a price that is eventually seen at the pump. This rule will also start forcing smaller companies out of the market due to excessive regulatory costs for compliance – further reducing production.

Biden / Harris watch –

Huge rumors surround biden and his 2024 plans. Many still don’t see him making it to the elections and are speculating on what might happen to shift the power around. One rumor is that biden will replace Kamala Harris with Gavin Newsom and then resign. This is considered to be a wild, outside the envelope move – to dump a colored woman for a rich white guy.

CW2/Domestic violence –

In an op-ed published by the New York Times, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is calling on her party to get “aggressive” towards Republicans after a disappointing senate race for the GOP.

OBSERVATION – I’m not going to waste endangered electrons on most of her claims. What is important is the continued rhetoric we see from the left that promotes a level of violence towards the right. Her verbiage is carefully tailored to be that of a political type, however, the hard core followers will skip over that part. Heard on a podcast recently that democrats consider violence like they do a thermostat, dialing it up or down as needed. This has been very evident and true the last few years.

Though generally filed under culture related ‘wars’, the current hyper-radical and locally violent transgender movement is taking charge at warp speed. On Nov. 2, 2022, Gary Bauer wrote this in his Campaign for Working Families: End of Day Report:
• “The Biden Administration and congressional Democrats are pushing legislation and regulation that gives trans ideology supremacy over everything, including religious liberty.”
• “If you have a religious objection to the bizarre idea that your biology can be ‘changed’ or ‘fixed,’ the left is going to smash you using the full power of government and social media censorship.”

OBSERVATION - Essentially, Bauer said if you believe there are only two genders for religious reasons, you should know that Democrats believe trans ideology is more important than religious freedom, and they will not hesitate to use the power of the govt against you. Add to it all the other things the govt will use its full force upon the citizens on, then the potential for conflict between the citizens and govt rise proportionately as citizens refuse to grant govt to revoke their rights and govt looses the consent of the governed.
We also see Antifa et al, gluing itself in support of the trans movement like white on rice. This creates a two front attack on citizens.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The republicans are coming closer to eeking out a slight majority in the House, at a level far below what preelection polls indicated. The Senate is on track to see a net gain in democrats.

OBSERVATION – Republicans have a very short window to get their act together on new leadership in both houses. What democrats would love to see going into 2024 is an internal civil war within the republican party with would help them immensely on the presidential side.

The House is scheduled to vote on 31 legislative items this week under suspension of the rules. Since the Republicans are likely to take control of the House in January, Democrats are under pressure to pass FY2023 spending bills and enact the party’s legislative priorities. Congress is facing a 16 December deadline to fund the government.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

A Middlesex County, New Jersey, man was arrested today for transmitting via the internet a manifesto containing threats to attack a synagogue and Jewish people, U.S. Attorney Philip R. Sellinger announced. Omar Alkattoul, 18, of Sayreville, New Jersey, was arrested this morning and is charged by complaint with one count of transmitting a threat in interstate and foreign commerce on or about Nov. 1, 2022. He is scheduled to appear this afternoon before U.S. Magistrate Judge Jessica S. Allen in Newark federal court.
“No one should be targeted for violence or with acts of hate because of how they worship,” U.S. Attorney Sellinger said. “According to the complaint, this defendant used social media to send a manifesto containing a threat to attack a synagogue based on his hatred of Jews.

OBSERVATION – The threat from Islamic radicals – one that triggered the origin of the “Threat Matrix” title thread so many years ago is still alive and well. Given the lawless turmoil and diversion of anti-terror assets to the pseudo threat of white, Christian nationalist domestic terrorism will permit these Islamic groups to grow and strengthen. This guy was just stupid enough to announce himself – many, many more operate in the shadows.

China –

Biden is holding his first face-to-face meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping since he became president. This face-to-face meeting between the American and Chinese leaders has partly been set up for the “optics”, says an expert on Asian politics - but at the same time, the talks are “not entirely meaningless”.
For both men, the main purpose of the meeting is to not look “weak” on the world stage, says Prof Pierre Landry from the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

OBSERVATION – Xi is feeling confident in his powers, leaving the country when in the past he refused – fearing possible coups.

China’s mega-city of Guangzhou, which became the “epicenter” of the current Chinese coronavirus outbreak this week, announced on Thursday it would shutter schools and universities.
Several other cities posted record-high daily infections, including Beijing. Although the Chinese Communist Party has admitted no errors with its heavy-handed “zero-Covid” lockdown policies, health officials rushed to reassure the public that some draconian restrictions would be lifted and citywide lockdowns would be avoided.
China’s state-run Global Times fumbled to explain the “complicated and severe epidemic situation” in Guangzhou, where the “source of some sporadic positive cases was not clear,” “the risk of community transmission was high,” and “infections have now burst out in multiple points.”
“After China shortened the quarantine period for people entering the country from overseas to ‘7+3’ days in the middle of this year, some voices attributed the latest surge in Guangzhou infections to the border entry measures, arguing that it would be better to extend the quarantine time,” the Global Times wrote.

OBSERVATION – China continues to shoot itself in the foot with its zero-Covid policy. Damaging its economy and angering the citizenry. However, barring a vicious coup, Xi has established himself in the leadership seat and these lock downs no longer concern him as he focuses on preparations for war.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.

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Russian Foreign Ministry will not accept any conditions for talks with Ukraine, including withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, - deputy FM of Russia Hrushko
NOTE – This is one of the items that has seen a lot of rumors following the Kherson pullout.

After Wagner mercenaries made an ISIS-style execution video, Evgeny Prigozhin has threatened his fellow Russian elites, hinting they are next. Knives are out as the power play continues between Wagner and MOD.

Kerch Bridge update –
Per Russian state media, repair work (and a partial reopening) of the dropped outside lanes should be finished by December, with a full resumption of traffic expected by next March. The bridge should reopen at half capacity utilizing the new sections on December 20th, with the inner sections undergoing replacement until March.
NOTE – Vehicle side of the bridge system. No (or very little) truck traffic projected. The rail bridge portion still remains out of commission – the bigger hit to Russian resupply/logistics.

RUMINT –
Some say Putin likely elevated Russian Army General Sergey Surovikin to theatre commander and let him withdraw from western Kherson on condition that he take the rest of Donetsk Oblast using Russian forces recouped from western Kherson as well as newly-arriving mobilized servicemen.

Logistics –
- The Kherson withdrawl has permitted Russia to redesignate priorities to the east and potential development of a Ukrainian offensive southward out of Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- Russian forces and occupation officials are forcibly mobilizing men in Russian-occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, and forcing them to construct trenches and defensive fortifications in the city

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.

RUMINT –
Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces are withdrawing from the left bank of the Dnipro River and concentrating forces and equipment in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, and Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting increased west of Kreminna and was intensive again east of Bakhmut. Russian contractors reportedely continue to take significant losses in this region despite recent rotations and reinforcements.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove. This follows other reports of the same.

Russian shelling was heavy in the Sumy region, near Kharkiv, north of Donetsk and around Bakhmut. In most other impacted regions shelling was mostly more sporadic.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front —— (This sector runs south from the LOC Russian border due east of Kharkiv city to the Kreminna area, inclusive of the Svatove – Kreminna line.)
See 24 hr summary

Donetsk Oblast —— (This sector runs southwest from the Kreminna area to the Donetsk Oblast boundry east of Donetsk and is inclusive of Mariupol)
See 24 hr summary

Zaporizhizhia Front ——— (NEW – Separated out from the general overlap of Donetsk and Crimean fronts. Consists of Zaporizhishia Oblast to the coast and is inclusive of Metropole)
NSR

Crimean front ——— (Consists of the remaining occupied Kherson Oblast to the border of Crimea)
Ukraine is working to reestablish vandalized utilities and communications in Kherson urban area. Arrests of Russian soldiers in civilian clothes continues. Ukraine’s art’y hits troop concentration in cross-river strikes on Dnipriany, Novooleksiivka and Kairy.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Russia still trying to pull the pieces together while Ukraine plans for its next operation to maintain the initiative it has.

The Ukrainians will likely use combat power recouped from the liberation of western Kherson to reinforce their ongoing counter-offensive in Luhansk Oblast or to open a new counter-offensive drive elsewhere. Where will it strike next?

1. Some popular talk is that Ukraine should continue the attack across the Dnipir River. The ultimate goal would be a run on Crimea that the Russians greatly fear. This is seriously flawed on many levels. The first being the significant barrier the river creates in the first place. Ukraine exploited that fact through its attacks on bridges – essentially isolating the Russian forces and leading to their eventual rapid retreat rather than losing a substantial portion of its army. A river crossing of that magnitude is beyond their capability. They may potentially attempt a crossing at the dam on the upstream end, but will need a month or more to repair the destroyed sections to make them capable to handle the weight of combat equipment.

A corollary is the suggestion that Ukraine launch an amphibious assault on a small spit of land directly south of Kherson city and flank the Russian defenses on the south. This fails due to the logistics necessary and poor conditions necessary for a successful attack.
I think overall Ukraine will maintain a threat of further operations in order to freeze Russian forces to prevent a quick run into Crimea.

2. Another failed idea is for Ukraine to attack into Russia. This is failed because it takes away its stated goal of liberating Ukrainian territory. It can extend control with its long range fire capability, no need to actually take ground.

3. Accelerate the offensive in the east. This is a practical redeployment as it is appearing that Russia may be reevaluating its efforts to take the Donbas region using forces redeployed from the Kherson region. A continued push towards Svatove and Kreminna would seriously impact resupply to the Donbas effort from the north. Once solidly connected to the region’s North-South highway network, it could swing southward and pressure Russian forces to defend captured territory in Luhask Oblast – coming in behind Russian defenses again.

4. Attack southward from . This has a whole lot of plusses behind it. Centrally located for the logistics tail necessary with a good North – South road network leading to the rail hub of Metropole. If they could push to the sea, Ukraine could then pivot east or west. A pivot west would endanger Crimea again and could (emphasis could) be supported by a limited river crossing attempt at the Dnipir. Limited resupply would come into play and Russia would be faced with fighting a two direction war as the initial offensive would flank the Russian defenses along the Dnipir. A pivot east would threaten Russian forces trying to take Donbas and cause another two front assault - from the west and north.

What to do, what to do. Cant read minds, but Russia seems concerned about #4 as it is being reported that evacuated Kherson forces are being redeployed in the Metropole and Ukrainian civilians being forced to construct defensive positions. Russia is also fixed on trying to breath life into the Donbas assault.

I would also expect that Ukraine will continue to nail Russian supply lines coming from Crimea to keep the force weakened.

Finally, I expect to see Ukraine beefing up the east as it appears that Russia is desperate to resume its Donbas campaign – driven by Wagner and Chechen elements. The ability of Russia to launch a successful campaign is minimal and would likely run into the same meat grinder they’ve been facing for the past nine months, while fearing a pivot south from Svatove.

Pakistan -

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan called on his supporters to resume his Haqiqi Azadi protest march on the Pakistani capital of Islamabad. “I will not back off as long as I’m alive,” Khan said, indicating that he would join his supporters in the city of Rawalpindi while pursuing early elections.

OBSERVATION- Things there are still teetering on the edge of a civil war within a nuclear armed country.

Israel –

See Syrian airstrikes below.

Iran -

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Monday morning heavily bombarded bases and headquarters of Kurdish opposition parties in the Kurdistan Region, using suscide drones, Fatah rocket and heavy artillery. Kurdish casualties were confirmed

“The IRGC’s attacks will continue until the terrorist groups are disarmed.” - Commander of Hamza Seyyed al-Shohada (AS). “ In today’s operation, we targeted the militants’ headquarters with missiles and suicide and combat drones. We also targeted the border headquarters with artillery.”

OBSERVATION – One of the scape goats of the ongoing protests in Iran are the Kurdisn people. The woman who’s death triggered the riots was a Kurd and the heaviest rioting has occurred in northwestern Iran adjacent to Iraqi’s Kurdistan region.

A court in Tehran on Sunday handed down what is believed to be the first death sentence relating to the anti-government protests that have gripped parts of the country for almost two months.
According to a report by a news agency affiliated to the regime’s judiciary, the Revolutionary Court on Tehran sentenced to death a person – no name or gender given – accused of setting fire to a government facility.

OBSERVATION – With more to come. What they forget is that they create martyrs with this kind of policy – you can only kill martyr once.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Aerospace Commander Amir Ali Hajzadeh said the military has finished construction of a hypersonic ballistic missile capable of maneuvering in and out of the atmosphere and would be utilized to target the “advanced anti-missile systems” utilized by Iran’s enemies.

OBSERVATION – Wasn’t but a few years ago the Iranian capability to produce its own weapons systems was considered a joke – crude copies of western hand me downs. Since then Iran has made great strides towards creating quality systems. We have been seeing some of this as their drone technology starts to take center stage. A hypersonic warhead would be a big step, but step back and consider the technology. A standard warhead is already a ‘hypersonic’ system. What Iran may be accomplishing is a MIRV – like system that permits the warhead a degree of maneuverability. Thus Iran is likely overstating its achievement for propaganda purposes. But I wouldn’t underestimate some of its technology development at the moment.

Iraq -

See Iranian attack in the Kurdistan region above.

Syria -

A string of explosions hit the Shayrat Airbase (SE. Homs) after it was bombed by Israel forces overnight. Apparently, ammo depots were targeted. Secondaries & fires were reported ongoing in the aftermath.

Relatively quiet for the moment. The biggest items are the aftershocks from the midterms and growing potential for an internal republican war on many fronts – for Senate/House leadership and for the coveted spot as the party’s presidential candidate. Unchallenged corrupted elections are spelling the end of our republic. As a saying goes “fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me”. Well documented now is that extended, drawn out vote counting almost always results in a democrat win. The powers that be are making sure we can’t vote our way out of tyranny .. . .. …

Globalism / Great Reset –

Noting this here because it feeds into the GGR global digitial ID/credit system –
FTX collapse is causing numerous govt investigations that will only lead to one thing, regulation of the crypto sector and eventual replacement of the system with a govt digital currency. For several years now the ever expanding Marxists in govt have been plotting on how to overthrow the wide open crypto market. The govt cannot allow such free market actions go without regulation – or especially being taxed. Multiple nations are working towards a digital currency and the US is one of them. However, it would appear that crypto’s protection of individual users and their transactions would still be favored by those skeptical of an official govt currency. Govt answer – destroy crypto. Putting on conspiracy hats – some believe FTX was designed from the get go to explode to give govt the opportunity/reason to regulate the industry. Bonus is the billions of ‘savings’ lost with this crash – all the more economic turmoil that the big global saviors of the GGR are counting upon when they bring their ‘plan’ to save the world forward.

BTW – it appears that the WEF is scrubbing its website of any link to FTX. Hmmmm

Wuhan virus –

Economy –

Inflation expectations from the New York Federal Reserve over a one and five-year time horizon increased during October to 5.9% and 2.4%, respectively, up from September forecasts of 5.4% and 2.2%.

The Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division – International Brotherhood of Teamsters (BMWED), the third largest rail union, agreed to an extended “cooling off” period that pushes a potential strike back to 04 December. BMWED will extend the deadline to 09 December if the two largest rail unions vote down the contract agreement. The International Brotherhood of Boilermakers (IBB) voted Monday to reject the contract agreement.

OBSERVATION – Things are not looking good to avoid a rail shut down. Not sure what they are gamming – that congress will back down and force their demands or let it ride? Either way, now with three unions negative on contracts it will be hard to shift momentum away from a strike.

The world’s largest online retailer, Amazon, will begin laying off 10,000 employees in corporate and technology roles beginning this week, according to a report from The New York Times. This follows announcements from Facebook (Meta) of the laying off of about 10,000. Disney looking to put a lot of folks out the door as well.
FedEx Freight, the largest less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier in the U.S., will furlough an unknown number of drivers for 90 days starting in early December. According to FedEx, this is in response to slowing economic conditions that have impacted LTL demand.

OBSERVATION – In Amazon’s and FedEx cases, the layoffs reflect a lot of the decline of the economy now headed into an unavoidable recession. In Facebook and Disney’s corner – going woke is resulting in going broke.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), head of the Senate’s Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said he will not schedule a confirmation hearing for President Joe Biden’s nominee Richard Glick for a second term as one of the nation’s top energy regulators. Manchin’s stance left the future of another five-year term for Glick uncertain. Glick could serve through the end of this year, though his term runs out when the current congress adjourns on Jan. 2 or before.
In March, Manchin, along with the commission’s two Republicans, lashed out at the FERC’s policy for scrutinizing interstate gas pipelines. Glick approved new guidelines in February that would have assessed greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impacts, including those on “environmental justice communities,” when approving natural gas projects.

OBSERVATION - Deliberate action by the administration to overregulate the industry to death. Will be interesting to monitor Manchin over the next two years as he comes up for election. His fellow democrats broke their word and stabbed him in the back the last couple of months when he sold himself out to their green global power grab. With a likely gain of democrats in the Senate, his vote is not really one that counts anymore – either way. Will he buck up against Schumer again or will Schumer cart him away to obscurity for his crimes against the party and its narrative.
Plant pathogens that are spreading disease in the lettuce fields of the Salinas Valley in the Central Coast are leading to a nationwide lettuce shortage and higher prices at the supermarket. At Nob Hill in Salinas, a head of lettuce was being sold for more than $4 on Monday.

OBSERVATION – Challenges continue in the agriculture sector – demonstrating the delicate balance of the economy and production. Salad may seem minor, but it demonstrates the potential volatility of the market in general.

CW2/Domestic violence –

As I’m noting in other sections of this post, political pieces are being moved into place that are increasing the potential for an actual hot CW2 scenario to begin. Open hostility and calls for violent reactions by leftists towards the right are going to encourage increased attacks by the left – real physical attacks. The right will only be poked so many times and will need to choose carefully its response(s) because the deep state/swamp entrenched in DC is looking for an excuse to crackdown on 50% of the country. So few of our country remember the abuses that socialistic govts under the Soviet Union inflicted on its citizenry – yet our govt is enroute to do the same here to us.
Antifa et al have lately seemed to be focused on supporting aggressive trans “rights” actions and physically shutting down any rally to oppose them.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Sadly, mark this date as fair elections in this country are now but a memory, the last one being in 2016. Will the republican culprits behind this latest surrender be held responsible? Hopefully at least one will. Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) favorability has hit a record low, according to Civiqs polling released Monday. Just 7 percent of voters view McConnell favorably, while 81 percent view him unfavorably. Among the Republican party, only 18 percent of Republicans approve of McConnell. Sixty-one percent disapprove.
And now these items!
1. Documents show McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund received $2,500,000 from someone at FTX.
2. Schumer announces talks with McConnell to sideline “maga” republicans to get stuff done in congress.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said Monday on CNN’s “This Morning” that he was meeting with Senat Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) in the wake of midterm election results to convince Republican senators to ditch so-called “MAGA Republicans.”
Co-host Kaitlan Collins said, “Are you going to talk to Mitch McConnell? What does that look like?”
Schumer said, “I’m going to say to the Republicans in the Senate who are not the MAGA Republicans, stop letting them lead your party. Work with us to get things done. I intend to sit down with Mitch McConnell and express that.”

There appears to be a movement in the Republican senate that is gaining traction to remove McConnell and replace him with someone with more fire in their blood. Of course there are sympathic elements of the eGOP fighting this, but the disaster of 2022 where the democrats actually gained senate seats to too onerous to ignore.

OBSERVATION - Cross reference this with CW2 as well. If items 1 and 2 above come out true, then the fix was in and free elections are no more. The thought generally held by the right/conservatism is that we can and should work through constitutional means to influence out govt – ie the ‘revolutions’ that are to take place at the one time free and fair elections. When that is stripped away by fraud that is condoned by republican ‘leadership’, the pressure switch gets pretty dicy. I noted in an earlier post the comment that I heard saying that the left considers violence to be like a thermostat – raising violence up or down as required. Same comments related the right as considering violence as an on/off switch – hence the reluctance to become violent. This kind of crap from McConnell and others is just pushing the pressure gauge even higher.

China –

Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping concluded over three hours of blunt talks centered on relations between the two countries, regional security issues, climate change, and Taiwan. The two leaders detailed their various “red lines” in a purported effort to avoid both a new Cold War and a hot conflict over Taiwan.

OBSERVATION – Talks were mostly posturing. At this stage China doesn’t seem very concerned about any US responses due to the dotard in the WH.

Crowds of residents in southern China’s industrial metropolis Guangzhou have escaped a compulsory lockdown and clashed with police, as anger at strict coronavirus curbs boiled over.
Dramatic footage shows some overturning a police vehicle and tearing down Covid control barriers. Riot teams have now been deployed in the area.
It follows Guangzhou’s worst Covid outbreak since the pandemic began.
Local governments across China are struggling to maintain a zero-Covid approach without trashing their economies. The latest official factory output and retails sales figures show the crushing impact of the pandemic and the government’s policy response to it.

OBSERVATION – Recent economic news from China shows a significant slow down of the economy – due in significant measure to the economic disruptions from these wuhan lockdowns, coupled with global slide into a recession. China may well soon face a harsh reality that an expensive military build up requires a reasonable economy and not one that has critical sectors shut down for weeks at a time.

North/South Korea –

The South Korean president assures his Chinese counterpart his desire to build a “mature and mutually beneficial” relationship between the two countries.

OBSERVATION- China’s response was essentially a shrug of the shoulders and a “yeh, what ever” attitude.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

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UN General Assembly approves resolution recognizing Russia must be responsible for reparations in Ukraine. It establishes an international mechanism to compensate for the losses caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- Putin signed a decree that allows Russian army to mobilize foreigners. The decree, publicly released by the Kremlin, redefines the term citizen in Russian conscription laws to include those with “citizenship of a foreign state” and those with a “residence permit: or other document confirming the right to permanent residence as a citizen in the territory of a foreign state.” Russian laws previously exempted foreigners from military conscription, allowing only voluntary enlistments.

Economic Impact –
- Polish and German officials announced their countries will nationalize assets belonging to Russia’s state-owned gas giant Gazprom. Both actions are designed to protect Polish/German companies from bankruptcy as well as end Russia controls over them.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
An uptick in Russian attacks are being noted along the front in the Donetsk sector with Russians conducting localized offensives concentrated to southeast and east of Bakhmut, around Soledar, near Kreminna and on multiple settlements northwest of Donetsk. Heaviest Russian artillery fire also occurred in these area.

Ukrainian forces continued to consolidate its gains and has resumed effective targeting of Russian ammo dumps, command posts and troop concentrations in areas east of the Dnipir River. One strike at Hola Prystan resulted in several hours of secondary explosions.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front —— (This sector runs south from the LOC Russian border due east of Kharkiv city to the Kreminna area, inclusive of the Svatove – Kreminna line.)
Russia has been launching increasingly stronger attacks along the border northeast of Kharkiv.
Meanwhile, along the Svatove – Kreminna line, fighting was centered northwest and southwest of Svatove.

Donetsk Oblast —— (This sector runs southwest from the Kreminna area to the Donetsk Oblast boundry east of Donetsk and is inclusive of Mariupol)
Fighting around Bahkmut increased in intensity over night but with no further Russian gains. Russian forces intensified offensive operations around Avdiivka–Donetsk City on November 13 and 14. One Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces aim to capture Vodiane, which would allow them to bypass Avdiivka and ultimately take Tonenke (about 19km northwest of Donetsk City), in an effort to cut off Ukrainian supply lines in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.

Unconfirmed reports that recently mobilized conscripts as well as forces pulled out of Kherson are being rapidly redeployed into the Donetsk region to build for a reinvigorated push.

Zaporizhizhia Front ——— (NEW – Separated out from the general overlap of Donetsk and Crimean fronts. Consists of Zaporizhishia Oblast to the coast and is inclusive of Metropole)
Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Russian news outlets claimed that Russian troops captured Pavlivka (45km southwest of Donetsk City). (Same city Ukraine destroyed 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, and the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade)

Crimean front ——— (Consists of the remaining occupied Kherson Oblast to the border of Crimea)
Ukraine artillery systems resumed the big logistics hits in Russia occupied Kherson. Overnight, heavy explosions were reported in Hola Prystan, Kalanchak, Skadovsk, Skadovsk and Lazurne.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian missile / drone attacks are sporadically hitting targets in central, southern and eastern Ukraine.

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Growing threat of Russia trying to light the fire to refocus on the capture of the rest of the Donbas region. Reports indicate the bulk of the mobilized conscripts along with units from Kherson are being reorganized and put into the battle. These essentially human wave attacks will probably overwhelm some Ukrainian positions, leading to very limited gains by Russia. However, current operations show no signs of coordinating attacks to support each other towards reasonable tactical/strategic objectives.

Additionally, these accumulating forces are varying ranges of military readiness. Integrating them all together into a cohesive combat force will be extremely difficult. This task made worse by the heavy toll on officers and communications that have only gotten worse with time. Russia only has a small window as Ukraine is also redeploying forces to the region as well – those who morale and equipment is superior to the current Russian soldier.
Finally, Russia hasn’t done well persecuting its attacks thru the Ukraine mud and here, once again, Ukraine holds the home field advantage.

Iran -

Protests continue across Iran, with the strongest being in Kurdish dominated western-northwestern Iran. It is here where the most violence occurs. Iran has sent more warnings to Iraq about Iraqi Kurds supporting the protests and have threatened more military strikes in Iraqi Kurdistan in the future.

Taking an even harder line, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei led Iranian lawmakers to vote in favor of executing 15,000 protesters for participating in the protests. The Iranian Parliament has not officially confirmed the vote in favor of mass executions but the Iranian officials did advocate for “no leniency” for protesters days ago.