Replies

Relatively quiet for the moment. The biggest items are the aftershocks from the midterms and growing potential for an internal republican war on many fronts – for Senate/House leadership and for the coveted spot as the party’s presidential candidate. Unchallenged corrupted elections are spelling the end of our republic. As a saying goes “fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me”. Well documented now is that extended, drawn out vote counting almost always results in a democrat win. The powers that be are making sure we can’t vote our way out of tyranny .. . .. …

Globalism / Great Reset –

Noting this here because it feeds into the GGR global digitial ID/credit system –
FTX collapse is causing numerous govt investigations that will only lead to one thing, regulation of the crypto sector and eventual replacement of the system with a govt digital currency. For several years now the ever expanding Marxists in govt have been plotting on how to overthrow the wide open crypto market. The govt cannot allow such free market actions go without regulation – or especially being taxed. Multiple nations are working towards a digital currency and the US is one of them. However, it would appear that crypto’s protection of individual users and their transactions would still be favored by those skeptical of an official govt currency. Govt answer – destroy crypto. Putting on conspiracy hats – some believe FTX was designed from the get go to explode to give govt the opportunity/reason to regulate the industry. Bonus is the billions of ‘savings’ lost with this crash – all the more economic turmoil that the big global saviors of the GGR are counting upon when they bring their ‘plan’ to save the world forward.

BTW – it appears that the WEF is scrubbing its website of any link to FTX. Hmmmm

Wuhan virus –

Economy –

Inflation expectations from the New York Federal Reserve over a one and five-year time horizon increased during October to 5.9% and 2.4%, respectively, up from September forecasts of 5.4% and 2.2%.

The Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division – International Brotherhood of Teamsters (BMWED), the third largest rail union, agreed to an extended “cooling off” period that pushes a potential strike back to 04 December. BMWED will extend the deadline to 09 December if the two largest rail unions vote down the contract agreement. The International Brotherhood of Boilermakers (IBB) voted Monday to reject the contract agreement.

OBSERVATION – Things are not looking good to avoid a rail shut down. Not sure what they are gamming – that congress will back down and force their demands or let it ride? Either way, now with three unions negative on contracts it will be hard to shift momentum away from a strike.

The world’s largest online retailer, Amazon, will begin laying off 10,000 employees in corporate and technology roles beginning this week, according to a report from The New York Times. This follows announcements from Facebook (Meta) of the laying off of about 10,000. Disney looking to put a lot of folks out the door as well.
FedEx Freight, the largest less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier in the U.S., will furlough an unknown number of drivers for 90 days starting in early December. According to FedEx, this is in response to slowing economic conditions that have impacted LTL demand.

OBSERVATION – In Amazon’s and FedEx cases, the layoffs reflect a lot of the decline of the economy now headed into an unavoidable recession. In Facebook and Disney’s corner – going woke is resulting in going broke.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), head of the Senate’s Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said he will not schedule a confirmation hearing for President Joe Biden’s nominee Richard Glick for a second term as one of the nation’s top energy regulators. Manchin’s stance left the future of another five-year term for Glick uncertain. Glick could serve through the end of this year, though his term runs out when the current congress adjourns on Jan. 2 or before.
In March, Manchin, along with the commission’s two Republicans, lashed out at the FERC’s policy for scrutinizing interstate gas pipelines. Glick approved new guidelines in February that would have assessed greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impacts, including those on “environmental justice communities,” when approving natural gas projects.

OBSERVATION - Deliberate action by the administration to overregulate the industry to death. Will be interesting to monitor Manchin over the next two years as he comes up for election. His fellow democrats broke their word and stabbed him in the back the last couple of months when he sold himself out to their green global power grab. With a likely gain of democrats in the Senate, his vote is not really one that counts anymore – either way. Will he buck up against Schumer again or will Schumer cart him away to obscurity for his crimes against the party and its narrative.
Plant pathogens that are spreading disease in the lettuce fields of the Salinas Valley in the Central Coast are leading to a nationwide lettuce shortage and higher prices at the supermarket. At Nob Hill in Salinas, a head of lettuce was being sold for more than $4 on Monday.

OBSERVATION – Challenges continue in the agriculture sector – demonstrating the delicate balance of the economy and production. Salad may seem minor, but it demonstrates the potential volatility of the market in general.

CW2/Domestic violence –

As I’m noting in other sections of this post, political pieces are being moved into place that are increasing the potential for an actual hot CW2 scenario to begin. Open hostility and calls for violent reactions by leftists towards the right are going to encourage increased attacks by the left – real physical attacks. The right will only be poked so many times and will need to choose carefully its response(s) because the deep state/swamp entrenched in DC is looking for an excuse to crackdown on 50% of the country. So few of our country remember the abuses that socialistic govts under the Soviet Union inflicted on its citizenry – yet our govt is enroute to do the same here to us.
Antifa et al have lately seemed to be focused on supporting aggressive trans “rights” actions and physically shutting down any rally to oppose them.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Sadly, mark this date as fair elections in this country are now but a memory, the last one being in 2016. Will the republican culprits behind this latest surrender be held responsible? Hopefully at least one will. Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) favorability has hit a record low, according to Civiqs polling released Monday. Just 7 percent of voters view McConnell favorably, while 81 percent view him unfavorably. Among the Republican party, only 18 percent of Republicans approve of McConnell. Sixty-one percent disapprove.
And now these items!
1. Documents show McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund received $2,500,000 from someone at FTX.
2. Schumer announces talks with McConnell to sideline “maga” republicans to get stuff done in congress.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said Monday on CNN’s “This Morning” that he was meeting with Senat Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) in the wake of midterm election results to convince Republican senators to ditch so-called “MAGA Republicans.”
Co-host Kaitlan Collins said, “Are you going to talk to Mitch McConnell? What does that look like?”
Schumer said, “I’m going to say to the Republicans in the Senate who are not the MAGA Republicans, stop letting them lead your party. Work with us to get things done. I intend to sit down with Mitch McConnell and express that.”

There appears to be a movement in the Republican senate that is gaining traction to remove McConnell and replace him with someone with more fire in their blood. Of course there are sympathic elements of the eGOP fighting this, but the disaster of 2022 where the democrats actually gained senate seats to too onerous to ignore.

OBSERVATION - Cross reference this with CW2 as well. If items 1 and 2 above come out true, then the fix was in and free elections are no more. The thought generally held by the right/conservatism is that we can and should work through constitutional means to influence out govt – ie the ‘revolutions’ that are to take place at the one time free and fair elections. When that is stripped away by fraud that is condoned by republican ‘leadership’, the pressure switch gets pretty dicy. I noted in an earlier post the comment that I heard saying that the left considers violence to be like a thermostat – raising violence up or down as required. Same comments related the right as considering violence as an on/off switch – hence the reluctance to become violent. This kind of crap from McConnell and others is just pushing the pressure gauge even higher.

China –

Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping concluded over three hours of blunt talks centered on relations between the two countries, regional security issues, climate change, and Taiwan. The two leaders detailed their various “red lines” in a purported effort to avoid both a new Cold War and a hot conflict over Taiwan.

OBSERVATION – Talks were mostly posturing. At this stage China doesn’t seem very concerned about any US responses due to the dotard in the WH.

Crowds of residents in southern China’s industrial metropolis Guangzhou have escaped a compulsory lockdown and clashed with police, as anger at strict coronavirus curbs boiled over.
Dramatic footage shows some overturning a police vehicle and tearing down Covid control barriers. Riot teams have now been deployed in the area.
It follows Guangzhou’s worst Covid outbreak since the pandemic began.
Local governments across China are struggling to maintain a zero-Covid approach without trashing their economies. The latest official factory output and retails sales figures show the crushing impact of the pandemic and the government’s policy response to it.

OBSERVATION – Recent economic news from China shows a significant slow down of the economy – due in significant measure to the economic disruptions from these wuhan lockdowns, coupled with global slide into a recession. China may well soon face a harsh reality that an expensive military build up requires a reasonable economy and not one that has critical sectors shut down for weeks at a time.

North/South Korea –

The South Korean president assures his Chinese counterpart his desire to build a “mature and mutually beneficial” relationship between the two countries.

OBSERVATION- China’s response was essentially a shrug of the shoulders and a “yeh, what ever” attitude.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.

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UN General Assembly approves resolution recognizing Russia must be responsible for reparations in Ukraine. It establishes an international mechanism to compensate for the losses caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- Putin signed a decree that allows Russian army to mobilize foreigners. The decree, publicly released by the Kremlin, redefines the term citizen in Russian conscription laws to include those with “citizenship of a foreign state” and those with a “residence permit: or other document confirming the right to permanent residence as a citizen in the territory of a foreign state.” Russian laws previously exempted foreigners from military conscription, allowing only voluntary enlistments.

Economic Impact –
- Polish and German officials announced their countries will nationalize assets belonging to Russia’s state-owned gas giant Gazprom. Both actions are designed to protect Polish/German companies from bankruptcy as well as end Russia controls over them.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with widely scattered showers in the 10-day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
An uptick in Russian attacks are being noted along the front in the Donetsk sector with Russians conducting localized offensives concentrated to southeast and east of Bakhmut, around Soledar, near Kreminna and on multiple settlements northwest of Donetsk. Heaviest Russian artillery fire also occurred in these area.

Ukrainian forces continued to consolidate its gains and has resumed effective targeting of Russian ammo dumps, command posts and troop concentrations in areas east of the Dnipir River. One strike at Hola Prystan resulted in several hours of secondary explosions.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front —— (This sector runs south from the LOC Russian border due east of Kharkiv city to the Kreminna area, inclusive of the Svatove – Kreminna line.)
Russia has been launching increasingly stronger attacks along the border northeast of Kharkiv.
Meanwhile, along the Svatove – Kreminna line, fighting was centered northwest and southwest of Svatove.

Donetsk Oblast —— (This sector runs southwest from the Kreminna area to the Donetsk Oblast boundry east of Donetsk and is inclusive of Mariupol)
Fighting around Bahkmut increased in intensity over night but with no further Russian gains. Russian forces intensified offensive operations around Avdiivka–Donetsk City on November 13 and 14. One Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces aim to capture Vodiane, which would allow them to bypass Avdiivka and ultimately take Tonenke (about 19km northwest of Donetsk City), in an effort to cut off Ukrainian supply lines in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.

Unconfirmed reports that recently mobilized conscripts as well as forces pulled out of Kherson are being rapidly redeployed into the Donetsk region to build for a reinvigorated push.

Zaporizhizhia Front ——— (NEW – Separated out from the general overlap of Donetsk and Crimean fronts. Consists of Zaporizhishia Oblast to the coast and is inclusive of Metropole)
Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Russian news outlets claimed that Russian troops captured Pavlivka (45km southwest of Donetsk City). (Same city Ukraine destroyed 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, and the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade)

Crimean front ——— (Consists of the remaining occupied Kherson Oblast to the border of Crimea)
Ukraine artillery systems resumed the big logistics hits in Russia occupied Kherson. Overnight, heavy explosions were reported in Hola Prystan, Kalanchak, Skadovsk, Skadovsk and Lazurne.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian missile / drone attacks are sporadically hitting targets in central, southern and eastern Ukraine.

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Growing threat of Russia trying to light the fire to refocus on the capture of the rest of the Donbas region. Reports indicate the bulk of the mobilized conscripts along with units from Kherson are being reorganized and put into the battle. These essentially human wave attacks will probably overwhelm some Ukrainian positions, leading to very limited gains by Russia. However, current operations show no signs of coordinating attacks to support each other towards reasonable tactical/strategic objectives.

Additionally, these accumulating forces are varying ranges of military readiness. Integrating them all together into a cohesive combat force will be extremely difficult. This task made worse by the heavy toll on officers and communications that have only gotten worse with time. Russia only has a small window as Ukraine is also redeploying forces to the region as well – those who morale and equipment is superior to the current Russian soldier.
Finally, Russia hasn’t done well persecuting its attacks thru the Ukraine mud and here, once again, Ukraine holds the home field advantage.

Iran -

Protests continue across Iran, with the strongest being in Kurdish dominated western-northwestern Iran. It is here where the most violence occurs. Iran has sent more warnings to Iraq about Iraqi Kurds supporting the protests and have threatened more military strikes in Iraqi Kurdistan in the future.

Taking an even harder line, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei led Iranian lawmakers to vote in favor of executing 15,000 protesters for participating in the protests. The Iranian Parliament has not officially confirmed the vote in favor of mass executions but the Iranian officials did advocate for “no leniency” for protesters days ago.

Globalism / Great Reset –

World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab on Tuesday delivered remarks at the G20 Summit and promoted the “Great Reset” to world leaders

“What we have to confront is a deep systemic and structural restructuring of our world. This will take some time and the world will look differently after we have gone through this transition process,” Schwab said.

Earlier this year Schwab warned of global cyberattacks and worldwide disruptions with food and energy systems. “History is truly at a turning point,” Schwab said at the 2022 World Government Summit in March.
“We do not yet know the full extent and the systemic structural changes which will happen, however, we do know the global energy systems, food systems, and supply chains will be deeply affected,” Schwab said speaking on the economic fallout from Covid-19, dangers of climate change and clashing world governments.

OBSERVATION - Lets ask the question – what country does Schwab represent as this is a meeting of govt leaders? WHY DID THEY LET HIM SPEAK?
His statement of change to “global energy systems, food systems, and supply chains” is particularly concerning – is he leading his punch? These areas have already been severely stressed by wuhan related nonsense and it wouldn’t take much to gum up the works once again. The reference to turning points and the overall context suggest that he intends that things happen soon.

MORE -

At the B20 (the Business 20 (B20) is an event that is part of the G20 Summit it is meant to express common views from the international business community) Health Minister of Indonesia Budi Gunadi Sadikin advocated for a global digital health certificate to track the movement of vaccinated individuals.

Speaking to the crowd, Sadikin said, “Let’s have a digital health certificate acknowledged by WHO. If you have been vaccinated or tested properly, then you can move around. So for the next pandemic, instead of stopping the movement of the people one hundred percent, which [collapse] the economy globally, you can still provide some movement of the people.”

Sadikin went on to say that an agreement to have this digital certificate using WHO standards had been reached between the G20 countries and Indonesia.

“Indonesia has achieved… G20 countries have agreed to have this digital certificate using WHO standards, and we will suck it into the next World Assembly in Geneva as the revision to international health regulations. So hopefully, for the next pandemic, we can still see some movement of the people, some movement of the goods, and some movement of the economy.”

OBSERVATION – The GGR is maneuvering and doing so quickly for this ‘digital passport’ effort, which will likely then be quickly merged into a digital monetary system and social credit system. If this really has been agreed at to at the G20, those who choose not to get vaccinated will be forced to give up their basic human rights.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York began a simulated digital currency initiative on Tuesday alongside multiple major banks as the cryptocurrency sector descends into chaos.
The digital dollar simulation, which is slated to last for 12 weeks, will “experiment with the concept of a regulated liability network,” a concept for a financial market infrastructure that would facilitate “digital asset transactions that connect deposits held at regulated financial institutions using distributed ledger technology,” according to a press release from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Analysts will test the “feasibility of payments between financial institutions” using tokenized assets.
Among other financial institutions, Citi, Mastercard, BNY Mellon, and Wells Fargo will partake in the simulation, which will determine whether the project is feasible for broader rollout and lead to technical design insights.

OBSERVATION – The convergence of digital currency, digital vaccine and social credit data is set to be coming on even faster. When will they actually merge - most likely after they have all the components operating separately and a new global crisis hits to propel the merger.

Wuhan virus –

The CEOs of the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association sent a letter to the White House and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) asking them to declare an emergency due to a surge in pediatric hospitalizations. The letter claims that 75% of pediatric hospital beds across the country are full and that increased hospitalizations are due to pediatric respiratory syncytial virus and influenza.

OBSERVATION – wuhan triggered an addiction to fed free money by the medical system. Wuhan also triggered lowering of natural immunity by closing off person to person contacts. The current ‘surge’ (questionable) is because those natural methods of enhanced immunity were denied for a better part of over a year.

Economy –

Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George said in an interview that inflation is at risk of growing entrenched in the economy, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to fight inflation without a recession. George said that labor is the driver of inflation now, rather than supply chain or production shortages, and the real challenge for policymakers is prematurely ending rate increases.(FO)

OBSERVATION - Fed being coy now about a recession being planned into the mix. Labor costs have increased as a result of shortages in labor and by labor demands to keep up with inflation. A vicious circle that has its external foundations on supply chain and production shortages. See PPI release below

The October read on producer inflation showed some of the highest numbers in months on key indicators of price increases. Month-over-month, headline PPI inflation advanced 0.2 percent in October — the same as in September — and prices upstream from consumers increased a full eight percent in the 12 months ending in October.
The core PPI number that excludes more volatile foods, energy, and trade services also saw prices increase 0.2 percent for an annual advance of 5.4 percent.
Some of the more alarming data points in the latest Producer Price Index report include the index for final demand goods, which advanced 0.6 percent in October — the largest advance since June when that metric increased 2.2 percent.
What’s more, 60 percent of October’s price increases for final demand goods are attributable to the index for gasoline which jumped 5.7 percent. At the same time, prices also increased for diesel fuel, fresh and dry vegetables, residential electric power, chicken eggs, and oil and gas field machinery.

OBSERVATION – These numbers are harbingers of continued high inflation rates and will likely be used by the Fed to justify continued large increases in the prime rate. Not good in the long run.

During a portion of an interview with NBC News on Monday aired on Tuesday’s edition of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that she thinks there are “good indications” that show inflation “is poised to come down,” but she doesn’t want to make predictions on a month-to-month basis and she believes that “over the next couple of years,” “inflation will come back down toward normal levels we’re accustomed to.”

OBSERVATION - A couple of YEARS, before the return to normal.

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm stated that President Biden is considering a mandate requiring oil companies to store more fuel in the United States. Granholm also said fuel export curbs are still an option the administration is considering. A minimum storage mandate would require action from Congress, and a bill to expand the Northeast home heating oil reserve is pending. Oil industry representatives warned that a mandate or export curb would increase prices in the short term. (FO)

OBSERVATION – Right now petroleum companies are making more money selling offshore than here in the US. Oil companies don’t want to lose that profit – particularly when forced on a volaille US market. It will cost companies to store these reserves and that cost will be passed on.

Recently enacted Public Law 117-58 includes $125M to pilot a national mileage fee and state mileage tax programs. House Infrastructure and Infrastructure Committee Chair Peter DeFazio (D-OR) stated that the government must move away from fuel taxes and towards a sustainable way to fund the Highway Trust Fund. (FO)

OBSERVATION – The onset of EVs and hybreds will impact fuel taxes in theory as there is less fuel sold. However, don’t expect fed and state taxes to go away if a mileage tax is introduced – govt loves taxes.

Invasion of Illegals –

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reports a record number of encounters with illegal immigrants in October. CBP announced that 230,678 encounters with illegal immigrants took place during the month of October. That number is up 2% over September. The third highest in history.

Texas Gov Abbot invoked Texas and US constitutions to declare an invasion on the border.
“I invoked the Invasion Clauses of the U.S. & Texas Constitutions to fully authorize Texas to take unprecedented measures to defend our state against an invasion.
I’m using that constitutional authority, & other authorization & Executive Orders to keep our state & country safe:
⁃ Deploying national guard to repel ad turn back illegals.
⁃ Deploy Texas dept of public safety to arrest and return illegals and to arrest illegals for criminal activity
⁃ Build a border wall in multiple counties on the borde r.
⁃ Deploy gun boats to secure border
⁃ Designate Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations
⁃ Enter into compact with other states to secure border
⁃ Enter into foreign powers to secure border
⁃ Provide resources to border counties to increase their effort to respond to the border invasion”

OBSERVATION - Expect the feds to immediately run this to courts to stop. This is a very aggressive response to the flood of illegals at the border. Will Texas guard/LEO face off against feds (I suspect the every day border patrol agent is supportive of Texas – so agitators will likely come from some other DHS source) Clearly a response to the continued record of illegals. Some may complain why it took him so long to invoke. Reality is he needed the precedent that the feds are not being effective in their assigned constitutional roles to justify this. Yeh, suckage, but necessary for a move of such magnitude.

A federal judge has just blocked the use of Title 42 at the border as a result of ACLU litigation. Title 42 allows the U.S. to immediately expel migrants on the basis of public health. It has been used millions of times under both Trump & Biden

OBSERVATION – To be appealed, to some extent. Uber-leftist Clinton appointed judge. Earlier this year the Biden administration attempted to end its use last May, saying the policy was no longer necessary to protect the country’s public health, but a federal court in Louisiana blocked the administration from winding it down completely.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden didn’t attend a G20 dinner.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Texas invokes constitutions to stop illegals, read above

During last week’s election, Oregon voters passed Measure 114, which has been heralded as one of the most restrictive gun laws in the nation. According to The Oregonian, the law will require people to obtain a permit to purchase a firearm, after successfully completing a firearms safety course at their own expense and paying a $65 fee. It also bans the sale or transfer of magazines that can hold more than 10 rounds of ammunition. State police will conduct a background check on permitted buyers prior to any gun sale. Purchasers will need to submit a photo ID and their fingerprints.

OBSERVATION – Constitutional sheriffs – the growing battle line being drawn in the CW2 precursors. They will become one of the tips of the spear as tyrannical govts try to strip rights from citizens. Little wonder eastern Oregon wants to leave and join Idaho. Quite frankly I wish they’d create their own separate state.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Facebook will not fact check comments made by former President Donald Trump now that he officially has announced a campaign for president in 2024, CNN reported.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Christy Smith concedes to Mike Garcia in CA27, Giving Republicans control of the House with 218 seats. There are still several other races out there pending that could go republican as well, giving the GOP a limited majority in the House.

Trump announced his bid for president in 2024.

Kevin McCarthy has apparently won the nomination for House Speaker.

McConnell is facing serious challenges to maintain his position as the minority leader.

China –

Overall observation is that Xi came out on top of the ‘discussions’ with biden.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west

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Massive missile attack on Ukraine has Russia receiving a lot of push back – see Ukraine below. Almost the ‘mistake’ that could have caused a NATO article 5 response.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Lots of rain and snow in the 10-day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Massive missile attack across Ukraine yesterday apparently attacking the power grid. About a hundred rockets were fired, most of the hits were recorded in the center and north of the country. This is the most massive shelling of the energy system since the beginning of the war, said Energy Minister Halushchenko. There are hits on civilian areas, air defense was working all over the country.

According to Ukraine general staff, Russian army launched over 90 Kh-101 and Kalibr missiles, and over 10 combat drones. Air Defense reportedly shot down 77 cruise missiles and 10 Shahed-136.

Emergency power outages have been applied in all regions, people are reporting communication disconnections.

Effects were not isolated to Ukraine, damages caused power outages in Moldova. Hungary MOL says received notification from Ukraine that power station near Druzhba pipeline in Ukraine near Belarussian border was hit by Russian rocket.

However the most serious incident was two stray rockets that fell in the town of Przewodów in Poland on the border with Ukraine. They hit the grain dryers. Two people died.

Polish PM Morawiecki convened the emergency meeting of the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security & Defense Affairs. Article 4 of NATO was initially called for by Poland, but later withdrawn (NOT Article 5). NATO ministers will discuss the situation at their already prescheduled meeting today.

Article 4 of the NATO treaty covers the case when a member state feels threatened by another country or a terrorist organization. The 30 member states then start formal consultations at the request of the threatened member. The talks look at whether a threat exists and how to counter it, with decisions arrived at unanimously.

Initial findings suggest that the missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile – though investigation is ongoing.

Polish president Duda said the Russian side is responsible for what happened yesterday. “yesterday we watched Russia’s massive attack against Ukraine; areas near the border with Poland were also bombed. The Russian side is to blame for the situation. There is no indication of an intentional attack on Poland”

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg – “The fact that the missile exploded in Poland results almost directly from Russia’s attack on Ukraine, and the more we will support and strengthen Ukraine in its natural right to self-defense. Russia must finally stop this war.”

It is pretty clear that this missile barrage was an intended response to the loss of Kherson.

Russian attacks in the southeast yesterday were all repelled, with fighting continuing to be the most intensive east of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar

Russian shelling remained intensive yesterday north of Donetsk and around Bakhmut, but was mostly more sporadic in the other impacted regions.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front —— (This sector runs south from the LOC Russian border due east of Kharkiv city to the Kreminna area, inclusive of the Svatove – Kreminna line.)
Sporadic Russian artillery

Donetsk Oblast —— (This sector runs southwest from the Kreminna area to the Donetsk Oblast boundry east of Donetsk and is inclusive of Mariupol)
Main war effort of Russia refocusing on this region with continued ground and artillery attacks.

Crimean front ——— (Consists of the remaining occupied Kherson Oblast to the border of Crimea)
With the exception of a few Russian artillery strikes, activity in this sector has dropped way down.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian missile attacks discussed above.

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Russia expended a lot of its increasingly scarce guided missiles yesterday. And even though it is currently looking like it was a stray Ukraine ADA missile fired in self defense that hit Poland, Russia is going to be held accountable for starting it.

Analysts keep saying that Russia has run out or is running out of its high-tech missiles – the big question is just how many do they have left? Russia’s increasing reliance on Iranian made systems suggests that Russian made stocks are really getting low. Russia has the capability to conduct surges in this kind of missile warfare, but it is no longer sustainable like it was in the early months of the war.

I expect Russia to continue to attempt to destroy the Ukraine power grid as winter approaches.

On the ground, well its still Russia attacking across a generally broad front in the east. They have unlearned the lessons of the first months of the war, returning to scattered, small unit attacks that are not coordinated with adjacent units against objectives of little tactical advantage. In short – the meat grinder. Russian attack intensity is expected to increase with the transfer of forces from Kherson and back fill of mobilized conscripts. APC, tank and artillery shortages will be acute given the losses in Kherson alone, and Russia is relying heavier and heavier on older, Soviet equipment like the T-62.
Russian generals and senior staff are short handed and are trying to weld together the fragments of these remaining units to create a functioning army. Suggests more ineffective attacks and continued high losses.

The onset of winter will favor the better motivated and equipped Ukrainian army, enabling it to pursue the offense and keep the Russians disorganized. But at this stage things are slowing down to a slog as the weather turns to hard rain and snow.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Power interrupted by Russian missile attacks see above

Poland -

Stray S300 killed two, see above in Ukraine

.
Europe / NATO General –

NATO action readiness increased due to collateral missile damage/deaths in Poland see above.

“Italy believes it does not make much difference if the missile that caused a deadly explosion in Poland was not Russian, because Moscow is still to blame for attacking infrastructure in Ukraine, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Wednesday.”

OBSERVATION – this is reflecting a lot of European opinion.

Israel –

Israeli official – “Targeting a ship in the Sea of Oman is an Iranian provocation”

OBSERVATION – Not the first time Iran has targeted a ship owned by an Israeli firm and particularly Ofer (see Iran below).

Iran -

Oil tanker associated with Israeli billionaire Idan Ofer was struck by an Iranian drone off the coast of Oman last night. The vessel is the Liberian-flagged Pacific Zircon, operated by Singapore-based Eastern Pacific Shipping. Ship’s stern slightly damaged and crew is ok.

Protests continue throughout much of Iran.