With the midterms hitting this Tuesday, there are a lot of things that can happen to cause chaos. Those actions most likely will come without warning. Keep alert is the best measure.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The UN’s annual climate change summit has opened with hosts Egypt billing it as the world’s “watershed moment” on climate action.
More than 120 world leaders are heading to the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.
About 30,000 people will attend the two-week summit, known as COP27
The summit will open with welcome speeches from the UN’s new climate change chief, Simon Stiell, and Egyptian Foreign Affairs Minister and COP27 President-Designate Sameh Shoukry.
Developing nations are demanding that previous commitments to finance are upheld. But they also want there to be discussion on “loss and damage” finance - money to help them cope with the losses they are already facing from climate change rather than just to prepare for future impacts. This would be the first time the issue has been put on the formal agenda of a COP summit.
Germany’s president expressed skepticism that progress could be made at the summit. UN chief Antonio Guterres warned that “we will be doomed” if a deal between rich and poor countries isn’t reached.
Guterres told Britain’s Guardian newspaper that wealthier countries must reach a “historic pact” with developing countries at the COP27 summit to minimize the effects of climate change.
“There is no way we can avoid a catastrophic situation, if [developed and developing countries] are not able to establish a historic pact,” Guterres told the newspaper. “Because, at the present level, we will be doomed.”
Guterres noted that developed countries are responsible for most emissions, while developing countries are likely to bear the brunt of the impact of climate change. He added that present climate policies “will be absolutely catastrophic.”
OBSERVATION - the so called ‘elites’ showing up for COP27 show their distain for the common folk in just about everything they do. They will be relying on climate models that are grossly flawed and don’t even match actual historical data. Here is an educational link for some of this
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/11/05/how-ipccs-1990-predictions-expensively-failed/
Meanwhile, they’ll demand more changes and the developing countries will demand more MONEY for the so called effects they are facing from ‘climate change’. This is all just a socialist money leveling operation as these ‘developing’ countries are largely lead by socialists.
One other note – the GGR crowd is once again resurrecting the call for a global climate ‘emergency’ along the same tyrannical lines of the recent wuhan virus plandemic. Such a declaration could allow subservient countries to force changes. However, the countries that are the most likely to follow along – those in Europe -are facing the harsh realities of energy poverty brought by ‘green’ energy and are pushing fossil fuels to get through the winter. At this stage, significant retrograde of fossil fuel based energy is unlikely for this region.
Here in the US OTOH, biden’s recent claim that he’ll shut down the coal ‘plants’ infers that he could act before the end of his term and the only way would be through some sort of emergency declaration as the incoming republican controlled congress wont likely accept such actions.
Wuhan virus –
In a FDA report looking at targeting data for children aged 5 to 17 between 2021 and mid-2022, the preprint study found that myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation, and the related condition pericarditis met the threshold for a safety signal for children aged 12 to 17 after the second and third doses of the mRNA vaccine.
A safety signal isn’t proof that a vaccine caused an adverse event. The purpose is to prompt investigation of the cause and determine whether or not the risks of a vaccine outweigh the benefits. (NOTE – ‘targeting data’ and ‘safety signal’ refer in part to the VAERS adverse reaction record).
The CDC has acknowledged myocarditis as a vaccine side effect but insists it’s rare. In August 2021, the CDC reported 42.6 cases of myocarditis or pericarditis per million males ages 12-15 after vaccination. However, in September, the CDC’s analysis of its own Vaccine Safety Datalink surveillance data showed the incidence of myocarditis after vaccination was three to five times higher for young men than what the agency was reporting in 2021. The first prospective cohort study on the subject – by researchers in Thailand looking at 301 teens 13-18 – estimated an astonishing 23,000 cases per million.
Last month, a Swiss study found elevated levels of the protein troponin in all of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine recipients it analyzed, indicating the shots are routinely causing heart injury. Further, up to 1 in 27 of the vaccinated people in the study showed levels associated with subclinical myocarditis.
Denmark and Norway have recommended that people under 50 and under 65, respectively, not get a booster shot. And Sweden is no longer recommending them for ages 12 to 17.
INTERIM OBSERVATION - It was considered “misinformation” and “dangerous fearmongering” less than a year ago to say the wuhan “vaccines” could cause myocarditis, heart attacks, or other deadly ailments. Today, what was once called “misinformation” has been confirmed as 100% accurate by the FDA, CDC, and WHO, albeit quietly.
CONTINUING - This is why the claim that many have made since around March, 2021, that wuhan “vaccines” hamper natural responses to diseases and cause recipients to become immunocompromised, is not surprisingly being proven accurate today. Sadly, the evidence is being drowned out by suppression, censorship, and gaslighting from Big Pharma puppets in government and media who aren’t concerned about who they’re harming as long as they keep getting paid.
Hospitals around the U.S. are suddenly struggling to keep up with surging rates of respiratory infections among children, such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), COVID, rhinoviruses and influenza. Censored scientists and doctors have long warned that the mRNA COVID jabs are destroying people’s immune systems, and that we’re going to see an avalanche of infections as immune system failure sets in
In June 2022, Stephanie Seneff, Ph.D., Dr. Greg Nigh, Dr. Anthony Kyriakopoulos and Dr. Peter McCullough published a paper10 in Food and Chemical Toxicology, reviewing the mechanisms by which the shots suppress immune function and trigger disease. As noted in the abstract:
“The utilization of mRNA vaccines in the context of infectious disease has no precedent. The many alterations in the vaccine mRNA hide the mRNA from cellular defenses and promote a longer biological half-life and high production of spike protein. However, the immune response to the vaccine is very different from that to a SARS-CoV-2 infection.
In this paper, we present evidence that vaccination induces a profound impairment in type I interferon signaling, which has diverse adverse consequences to human health.
Immune cells that have taken up the vaccine nanoparticles release into circulation large numbers of exosomes containing spike protein along with critical microRNAs that induce a signaling response in recipient cells at distant sites.
We also identify potential profound disturbances in regulatory control of protein synthesis and cancer surveillance. These disturbances potentially have a causal link to neurodegenerative disease, myocarditis, immune thrombocytopenia, Bell’s palsy, liver disease, impaired adaptive immunity, impaired DNA damage response and tumorigenesis.”
OBSERVATION - This information was out there for a LONG time and the CDC et al buried it as ‘misinformation’. This is why there should be no amnesty for the covidians. They damaged and killed too many in defense of their ‘narrative’ and the effort to prolong the pandemic emergency.
Economy –
Biden said Friday that coal plants are too expensive to operate, and “we’re going to be shutting these plants down all across America” in order to shift to wind power in a comment that drew criticism from the Republican National Committee.
“I was in Massachusetts about a month ago on the site of the largest old coal plant in America,” Biden said at an event in Carlsbad, California, on Friday. “Guess what? It cost them too much money. They can’t count. No one is building new coal plants because they can’t rely on it. Even if they have all the coal guaranteed for the rest of the existence of the plant.
“So it’s going to become a wind generation. And all they’re doing is it’s going to save them a hell of a lot of money and using the same transmission line that they transmitted the coal-fired electric on, we’re going to be shutting these plants down all across America and having wind and solar power, also providing tax credits to help families buy energy efficient appliances, whether it’s your refrigerator or your coffee maker, for solar panels on your home, weatherize your home, things that save an average, experts say, a minimum of $500 a year for the average family.”
OBSERVATION – Our economy relies on dependable energy and the left/biden desire energy poverty for all. If biden shuts down all coal (and his context suggests over a short period of time), it would literally take decades to build enough solar and wind to even begin to pick up the difference. History has shown it is completely unreliable. No amount of wind and solar can reliably supply the USA during adverse winter weather.
Solar power doesn’t work at night, or in winter – Northern states especially simply don’t receive enough sunlight (and snow cover doesn’t help either).
Wind alone cannot carry the USA’s energy needs during long periods when solar is unavailable. Wind simply isn’t a reliable source of energy.
Consider the Texas ice storm in February 2021. Solar dropped to almost nothing for over 10 days, and wind wasn’t available for significant periods. Consider also the Kalifornia heat wave of a couple years ago, wind shut down and the state baked in record temperatures with no other power available to spin up. Electric car users were begged NOT to charge their cars.
Final note – coal/gas plants are far, far cheaper per megawatt than wind or solar and have a much longer life cycle. Coal plants operate for over 40 years now. Wind plants have to be replaced about every 12 years or so.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden announced he will shut down coal plants all across America (see Economy above). The statement put the WH into a tizzy trying to spin the statement. One response was that Biden ‘regrets’ comments about shutting down coal plants. KJP claimed biden’s words were “twisted”
OBSERVATION – WH staffers must be able to get more than their minimal numbers of steps in by walking back biden’s gaffs on a daily basis.
SEE ALSO Economy above
CW2/Domestic violence –
I’m not seeing any calls by the left or right for violence this Tuesday. The left (Antifa et al) may try to activate post election as they did after Trump’s election to ‘punish’ the people for the red wave. If you live in a blue city/region keep your head on a swivel and monitory local news for any ‘protests’ and avoid. The left is still trying to get the right provoked into a response that the govt can us to crack down any opposition to the regime’s goals.
Cyber Warfare –
Cybersecurity units from the National Guard will be activated in 14 U.S. states to help counter any threats to election officials’ networks ahead of, during, and after the upcoming Nov. 8 midterm elections, according to reports.
The 14 include battleground states Arizona, Iowa, and Pennsylvania, as well as Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Mexico, New York, Washington, and West Virginia, reported Politico.
CISA Director Jen Easterly has repeatedly said she doesn’t expect any major disruptions to the midterms. Most recently, on Nov. 1, at an event hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Easterly said that there is “no information credible or specific about efforts to disrupt or compromise” election infrastructure and that she was “very confident that we have done everything we can to make election infrastructure as secure and as resilient as possible.”
Air Force Maj. Gen. Rich Neely, head of the Illinois National Guard, said that he and his team are “not expecting to see anything.”
North/South Korea –
Things have quieted down since last weeks blow up. However, it can start up again on a very short notice.
Japan –
Taiwan is not the only country in the region facing incursions of territorial waters by Chinese and Russian vessels.
A People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) survey ship vessel entered Japan’s territorial waters near islands south of Kyushu this week, according to the Japanese Ministry of Defense.
The Shupang-class survey ship was sighted sailing northeast through Japan’s contiguous zone west of Gaja Island and entered Japan’s territorial waters southwest of Kuchinoerabu Island at 12:10 a.m. local time on Wednesday. The ship departed Japan’s territorial waters after three hours of operating near Yakushima Island and sailed southeast. According to Japanese officials, the transit was the fourth intrusion of a foreign warship this year, marking a record high.
On Monday, the Japanese MoD issued a statement that said on Oct. 28, a Russian Navy Balzam-class surveillance ship was sighted sailing west in an area 160 kilometers west of Cape Ryupi, Aomori Prefecture, Honshu. An image and hull number provided in the release identified the ship as Pribaltica (80), which is part of the Russian Navy Pacific Fleet.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russia appears to be focusing more on a missile campaign targeting electrical infrastructure to stress Ukraine as winter approaches.
Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
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NUKE WATCH -
China has warned Russia against threatening to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, in a rare departure from its usual tacit support for Moscow’s positions.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting slowed around Bakhmut yesterday, returning more to trench fighting. Both sides in many regions are digging in or fortifying defensive positions for winter. Russian shelling was intensive around Bakhmut, whilst Ukrainian shelling of Russian forces was intensive around Svatove and Kherson. In most other impacted regions there were some sporadic intensive phases, but shelling was mostly sporadic.
Evidence of the construction of Russian defenses east of the Dnipir River were revealed – see below.
Russian air/missile and drone strikes continued yesterday and overnight but were limited.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Scattered Russian artillery fire.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to advance towards encircling Svatove. Ukraine has most of the key Russian supply lines within artillery range and SOF and partisans actively feed target data for interdiction.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russia conducted 2 missile strikes at Zaporizhzhia overnight. More Bakhmut attacks repulsed.
Crimean front ———
Ukrainian and Russian sources did not report significant changes in the situation on the southern front on November 5th.
Battle for Kherson could get ugly as a local in Kherson tells BBC that many Russian soldiers in the city wear civilian clothes. (That is a war crime under the Geneva Conventions).
Better weather and more intel has permitted better analysis of the Russian defenses southeast of Kherson. The Russians are currently building three lines of trenches and bunkers on the right side of the Dnieper. These defensive positions use natural and artificial barriers such as the Dnieper River and the numerous canals in the Kherson region. Below is a link to a map that shows the approximate alignment of these defensive lines -
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fgz2LnSXgAALNiy?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
These defensive lines consist of trenches supported by buried positions for armored fighting vehicles. In places where it is difficult to dig trenches, Russia has deployed prefabricated “bunkers”
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
Big fire in Grayvoron district of Belgorod region after reported shelling
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
There was a reported attempt to assassinate high-profile Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Supreme Court Judge Aleksandr Nikulin.
OUTLOOK ——
Winter setting in is altering the fight. Until the ground freezes, off road maneuverability will be hampered by the fall mud.
I see no real changes in the tactical situation as it has been progressing for the past week or so. Slow gains by Ukraine and Russia throwing itself into the Bakhmut meat grinder.
Monitoring the Nov 7th date given by the Russian occupation forces in Kherson to see what may happen then or shortly thereafter.
Revelation of the extensive defenses on the east side of the Dnipir River show how important protecting Crimea from the Kherson axis is. What Russia has to fear is the potential for an offensive coming south out of the Zaporizhzhia region. Creation of such a fixed defensive line versus a mobile army did not work well in WW2.
Russian milbloggers worried for months of a third front in the Zaporizhzhia region. This assault would permit Ukraine forces to move south on the eastern side of the Dnipir River, flanking the fixed defensive network. Such a strike would also threaten to split the Russian forces in half, limiting their ability to support across the region.
Russia could be forced onto the horns of a trilemma. Keep forces in the Kherson line, put forces into the east and/or forces against a thrust from Zaporizhzhia. They have been barely capable of handling two fronts – a third would be very difficult to sustain.
Ukraine, with interior lines of logistics, could leave a holding force in Kherson and move units to the Zaporizhzhia region. It has already been targeting Russian logistics, command posts and troop concentrations in the region, so some of the shaping of the battlefield has commenced. This region relied heavily on the Kerch Bridge for supplies from Russia and is feeling the shortages as material is diverted to the west and east.
If Ukraine follows this tactic, they could be ready to go as soon as the end of the year, as analysts suggest that they will have secured Kherson and the west bank of the Dnipir River by then.
Belarus -
Monitoring activity which seems to be basic military training in established areas of central and western Belarus. No evidence of potential attacks into Ukraine.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Serbs in Kosovo have withdrawn from all political institutions including the, assembly, the government, the judiciary, the police and the administrative staff in the four municipalities in the north. All Serbian MPs are submitting their resignation to the Kosovo Parliament.
OBSERVATION – This is all about Kosovo having license plate rules for Serbs living in Kosovo as Kosovans face living in Serbia. Essentially this is a power play by Serbs who want their own entity within Kosovo which Kosovo govt said no. Serbia has rattled the saber a lot on this issue lately. Kosovo currently has a NATO peace keeping force in place and any Serbian attack will trigger an Article 5 response. Such Serbian aggression may be linked to their alliance with Russia and they may get froggy in order to tie NATO down from their support of Ukraine. Such actions would become very nasty fast as Serbia would essentially be on their own – with no Russian support (other than cheering them on) as Russia is too tied down in Ukraine.
Pakistan -
Civil unrest continues following the assassination attempt on Khan.
Iran -
Iran regime is forbidding trading foreign currencies and especially USA Dollar in all platforms from today, after the shock of falling rates of Iranian Rial against the dollar.
Iranian human rights activists report that 318 people have already been killed during the Iran protests, including 49 children. The protests, which has taken place in 136 towns and 134 universities, have resulted in around 14,800 protestors having so far been detained.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
The U.S. government gave $1.1 billion in U.S. tax dollars to Taliban-controlled Afghanistan in humanitarian aid since the U.S. withdrawal in August 2021 — and a top federal watchdog says several U.S. agencies are refusing to explain how the money was spent.
In SIGAR’s quarterly report to Congress the Inspector General explains that they are unable to track down how more than $1 billion taxpayer dollars was spent because multiple government agencies are refusing to cooperate.
Inspector General John F. Sopko says, “SIGAR, for the first time in its history, is unable this quarter to provide Congress and the American people with a full accounting of this U.S. government spending due to the noncooperation of several U.S. government agencies.” Sopko adds that both United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which administers the majority of U.S. government spending for Afghanistan, and the Treasury Department “refused to cooperate with SIGAR in any capacity.”
OBSERVATION – Said it before, say it again. The biden regime operates as a lawless entity, being law unto themselves.
Mexico -
Haven’t commented in this region lately. There is a lot of cartel – govt fighting on top of intercartel fights. The country is not a very safe area. As noted under ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION a few days ago, this violence between cartels is spilling northward over the border.
The corrupt MSM is pretending people will split tickets...THAT'S THE HINT.
... BUT IT CAN BE AN EXCUSE FOR VOTER FRAUD.
WATCH FOR THE MSM pushing the down ticket lie.
Iran sucks.
I hate time change. It has served its purpose and now needs to be retired.
Gird your loins – tomorrow is election day and today is the last blast of political ads. Get out there and vote like your life depends on it.
Globalism / Great Reset –
COP27 is on going, with hundreds of jets spewing carbon whisking their participants to this summit.
The Dutch minister of Finance, who also happens to be the co-chair of the Global Action Group at the WEF, is now looking to introduce a law to monitor ALL transactions over €100.
In his speech, UN Secretary General António Guterres warned that the world’s “on a highway to climate hell” - blaming growing greenhouse gas emissions and rising global temperatures. “The clock is ticking,” he told the audience. “We are in the fight of our lives and we are losing.”
OBSERVATION - Gloom and doom along with further maneuvering to impose GGR/WEF goals. The big one is wealth distribution – watch that drum get beat over and over this week. That and the impending destruction of the planet due to global warming.
Wuhan virus –
NOTING THIS HERE CDC and the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) outlined plans aimed at a spike in respiratory diseases that are not COVID-19. National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases Director Jose Romero stated that they are seeing the highest influenza hospitalization rates going back a decade.
OBSERVATION – Many studies and experts are now up front saying that one of the biggest negative effects of the wuhan lockdowns has been the effect that those lockdowns have had on the natural immune functions of the body – not to mention the direct effects to derail natural immunity from the jab itself.
Economy –
Big layoffs coming to Meta, in the 1000’s. This comes on the heels of a terribly, bad performance of stock having lost over 70% of it’s value this year.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index for October is scheduled for release Thursday morning. A lagging indicator, the CPI is not expected to reflect the latest interest rate hike from the Fed earlier this month. Year-over-year inflation expectations are at 7.9%, following last month’s YoY data of 8.2%. Monthly inflation is expected to increase by 0.6%. (FO)
Things are still tense concerning a potential nation wide rail road strike. Department of Labor Secretary Marty Walsh stated that he’s in communication with rail unions and companies daily after two unions voted to reject a deal backed by the Biden administration. Walsh stated that he is very active in talks with the unions, especially the two which voted to reject the deal.
Diesel crisis grows - Truckers in North Carolina are reporting areas of that state, that is without diesel fuel! Similar videos have come out of Oklahoma within the past three days as well. Fuel Distributors in Tennessee announced they had begun LIMITING purchases of diesel fuel in that state, too.
On October 26, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem issued an executive order providing truckers hauling liquid fuel products with relief from Hours of Service rules due to “extremely low inventories and outages of certain liquid products including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, propane, ethyl alcohol, natural gasoline, diesel exhaust fluid, and and anhydrous ammonia”
Nebraska Governor Pete Ricketts issued a similar emergency declaration on November 1 providing relief from Hours of Service requirements for drivers hauling gasoline or gasoline blends, diesel, fuel oil, ethanol, propane, and biodiesel.
The order was issued because “several multiple states including Nebraska are experiencing fuel shortages due to high demand for petroleum products.”
OBSERVATION – Refineries are working hard to produce diesel as well as fuel oil (also at rationing levels). Pray there are no events that take them off line.
Biden / Harris watch –
Joe Biden said during an event in New York Sunday there would be ‘no more drilling’ in the U.S. one day after Joe Manchin blasted him for vowing to close coal plants - while the president nearly took a spill on stage.
The president could be heard at one point telling someone in the crowd ‘No more drilling. There is no more drilling. I haven’t formed any new drilling. No.’ And almost falls off platform
OBSERVATION – So now we have biden on record once again saying HIS administration is going to close down coal plants and stop all new drilling. Sounds like a policy statement to me that is totally tone deaf to what really needs to happen in this country.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Republican Arizona Governor candidate Kari Lake’s campaign offices were shut down Saturday night after staff received suspicious white power. FBI/Law enforcement was at the offices in Phoenix from 10pm to 5am after Lake’s team was sent two envelopes with the substance and abusive messages. Her campaign believes this was a ‘terroristic attack, trying to intimidate Kari and the campaign staff’.
A staffer is currently under medical supervision and the headquarters have been shut down for the remainder of the campaign.
OBSERVATION – The MSM will under report (if at all) this event since it is just another (potentially) violent attack by leftists against republicans/conservatives.
Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee recently released report claims to outline the politicization of the FBI and the DOJ. The report based on whistleblower testimony states that the FBI is manipulating domestic violent extremism statistics for political purposes, giving preferential treatment to Hunter Biden, terminating employees for their political views, abusing investigative and counterterrorism authorities for political purposes, and choosing not to investigate attacks against pro-life facilities and churches.
OBSERVATION – Weaponization of the DoJ/FBI against the American people, just like the KGB and Stazi of the Soviet era. Only a severe, house cleaning of upper level management can cure this and the Congress alone only has limited power to do so. But it should use its impeachment authority liberally to eliminate those in the DoJ/FBI responsible for this attack on the citizen and Constitution.
Rose City Antifa members have posted these stickers all around Portland, Ore. declaring they are the new police force. Antifa believe in extrajudicial detainment, questioning & killings
OBSERVATION – This is a step towards creating an alternative ‘government’ structure that an insurgency takes. Portland is undoubtedly the strongest of the Antifa strongholds and where this would be expected to appear at the earliest. Similar moves are in their infancy in other BLM/Antifa stronghold cities.
There is no spectrum on the Republican side, says Elizabeth Warren. Talking to the radical MoveOn group that if you are a Republican you are an insurrectionist and will “take away democracy.”
She says running for office or “taking money” from the Republican party means you are “bought in” using “hate” and “lies” to “control the American people.”
OBSERVATION - SMH, more rhetoric designed to demonize the right. That demonization has already resulted in some lefty violence.
POLITICAL FRONT –
More strangeness observations on the Pelosi incident, Mike Huckabee notes –
“David Depape, the man who has confessed to law enforcement that he entered the home of Paul and Nancy Pelosi and assaulted Paul with a hammer, is “a homeless, mentally ill drug addict with a fondness for BLM,” as Tucker Carlson quipped accurately Monday night. That description applies to a lot of folks in San Francisco, but he’s also an illegal alien, A Canadian who has long overstayed his visa. So, for a more complete description, David Depapae is “a mentally ill, drug addicted illegal alien nudist who takes hallucinogens and lives in a hippie school bus in Berkeley with a BLM banner and a pride flag out front.”
But earlier on Monday, San Francisco DA Brooke Jenkins gave a press conference in which she stated flatly that they believe Depape’s crime to be “politically motivated” –- and this being San Francisco, one may safely assume which politics she means. “(Huckabee)
China –
46 PLA aircraft and 4 PLAN vessels pushed into Taiwan defense zone on Nov. 6th. Aircraft wise, this is one of the highest counts in a while, though not all at once.
Following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s call for its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to “fully enhance training and preparation for war,” senior military officers stated that PLA forces are on full alert.
OBSERVATION – Many view Xi’s speech at the CCP congress to be a warning order for the PLA to execute the reunification of Taiwan. The most conducive weather for military operations in the Taiwan Straits is now through December. However, such an short fuse operation will leave a big intelligence footprint to execute within a month’s time. If anything, they have the capabilities now to execute a blockade of the Island. Military invasion takes a lot more work, even though China has been planning and practicing for a number of years now.
China’s H-6K Hun strategic bomber was spotted carrying a new hypersonic air-launched missile late last week. China’s new air-launched CM-401s closely resemble Russia’s Kinzhal, essentially a modified surface to surface missile mounted to an airframe.
Japan –
Japan’s Prime Minister has warned the pacifist country needs to step up its military force amid an increasingly ‘severe’ situation in the region, after North Korea’s latest provocation this week saw it fire a missile near the island nation in a record year for launches.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russia appears to be focusing more on a missile campaign targeting electrical infrastructure to stress Ukraine as winter approaches.
Russia is incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
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NUKE WATCH -
Russian leader Vladimir Putin has alarmed Western leaders by referencing the nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in a conversation with French president Emmanuel Macron, diplomatic sources have said.
According to the sources, Putin expressed the view that the bombings – which triggered the Japanese surrender and the end of the Second World War – demonstrated that ‘you don’t need to attack the major cities in order to win’.
A source said: ‘Macron was distinctly alarmed. It sounded like a very heavy hint that Putin might detonate a tactical nuclear weapon in the east of Ukraine, while leaving Kyiv intact. That appeared to be the thrust of his remarks.’
OBSERVATION – Couldn’t find the date for this phonecon, but had to have been within the past month when Kremlin rhetoric was flowing. The crux of putin’s statement is that the US didn’t nuke Tokyo, but another city(s) – this implied threat combined with the curious Russian pullback from Kherson and losses in the east left a lot of secondary cities as potential targets.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10-day period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Now into the 9th month of the war, some have done a quick check on the progress. It appears that Ukraine has liberated 50% of the territory Russia occupied after the start of hostilities on Feb 24th.
The heaviest fighting yesterday was around Bakhmut again with some more activity east of Soledar too. A fight around Pavlivka is building and as in most other locations, the Russians are losing – badly.
Russian shelling was intensive again around Bakhmut yesterday and north of Donetsk. Two explosions were reported in occupied Donetsk overnight, with some reports Russian military resupplies arriving by railway were targeted. Possible partisan sabotage, but unclear as yet.
Russian shelling, except as further noted below was mostly more sporadic.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Russian shelling has increased again across the Sumy region overnight.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Significant battle in the vicinity of Makiivka (southwest of Svatove) where the Russian forces had occupied a salient. The Russian news outlet Verstka reported yesterday that hundreds of mobilized Russian soldiers have died in that area. TV Rain has independently corroborated it, reporting that officers told the men “You are meat, that’s why you were brought here.”
The Russian Defence Ministry’s official briefs for 30 and 31 October provide almost identical text stating that “the enemy attempted to conduct offensives” in the direction of Makiivka, but “all attacks were repelled”.
From 1 to 3 November, the Ministry of Defence reports that attempts by the Ukrainian armed forces to attack near Makiivka were foiled and the enemy “as a result of active action by Russian troops and artillery” were pushed back “to their initial positions”.
The report for 4, 5 and 6 November no longer mentions Makiivka.
Dominated by high ground to the west, Ukranian artillery swept this terrain, inflicting serious losses. Counter-attacking, Ukranian infantry drove RU units back as much as 6 Km. Russian sources are reporting that at least a battalion’s worth of Russians (may be more) of recent, mobilized conscripts were killed in the battle.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russia continues to enter the meat grinder around Bahkmut.
One significant fight that has been building lately has been further to the west around the town of Pavlivka with reports of heavy Russian losses. Ukrainian air activity was reported in this region yesterday with reports of strikes on Russian forces.
It has been one of many smaller scale attacks the Russians have been making, but has apparently grown in intensity since the destruction of the Kerch Bridge. Most recently, Russia has been observed pushing loads of vehicles north from Mariupol, presumably toward Pavlivka where they are apparently suffering pretty huge casualties. Intercepted/monitored communications from Russian soldiers in the Pavlivka area tell of devastating losses and near nonexistent Russian morale.
To some analysts – and I tend to agree based on the evidence, the reason Russians are trying so hard in the Pavlivka area might be the damage on the Kerch bridge. If they can successfully push Ukrainian forces far enough away, they might be able to create buffer and establish a Melitopol <-> Donetsk railway connection. Currently, that rail line is well within Ukranian artillery range and would draw heavy fire if/when it started to run substantial rail traffic.
Another driver for the Russians to try to get a buffer around Pavlivka is the anticipated loss of Kherson Oblast west of the Dnipir River. A rough overlay of the HIMARS 70km range shows that much of the Russian occupied Kherson (east of the Dnipir) and Zaporizhzhia Oblast to the Crimean border is covered – further prohibiting logistical and personnel movements. BTW, Ukrainian targeting would be enhanced given the strong resistance elements already in place.
However, this effort could backfire and give Ukraine an opportunity for a major counter attack. Pavlivka lies due north of Mariupol and it is the thinnest section of Russia’s ‘land bridge’ between N Crimea and the mainland Russia to the east. Should Russian forces deplete themselves here, Ukraine could push south across this approximately 60 km strip of land and cut the Russian forces in half. I can’t say if / when this could happen, but Russian efforts are increasing to capture Pavlivka and beyond. However, most of the forces being committed are either depleted units or mobilized conscripts with little or no training.
In and around Kherson Ukrainian forces continue long range artillery and airstrikes, with a Russian military establishment targeted in Nova Kakhovka yesterday with reports of significant casualties. Two more Russian ammunition/resupply depots were also destroyed in the Kherson region yesterday.
Occupation authorities announced mandatory evacuation in Beryslav, Kherson region. Residents should leave before 10th November. (Located on the west bank of the Dnipir near the Kakhovka Dam)
Crimean front ———
Monitoring Russian withdrawal from Kherson and establishment of new defensive lines east of the Dnipir River. Ukraine continues to hit Russian supply bases, command posts and troop concentrations.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Nibbles of actions along both east and south fronts. The battle at/around near Makiivka lost a lot of the conscripts recently sent to the front – and instead of stopping Ukraine’s advance, it only hastened it.
Developing battle around the Pavlivka area is important to watch as well. Russia has very little capability to launch any kind of a sizeable offensive operation while trying to hold off Ukraine advances in Kherson and the east. The reports I’ve read are that this assault isn’t going to go anywhere – Russia just can’t mass the manpower and artillery firepower to overcome Ukrainan defenses and that their efforts may boomerang on them and actually lose ground.
Still have concerns about the bigger plan concerning Russia’s activity in Kherson Oblast west of the Dnipir River. Ukraine would normally be exploiting such a scenario and they are even playing cautious.
Pakistan -
Former Pakistani Prime minister Imran Khan announced he would resume his protest march to Islamabad after recovering from a gunshot wound he received last week.
Supporters have urged Khan to continue the march despite concerns from the Pakistani government that violence surrounding the event could continue to grow as security forces clashed with Khan’s supporters in several major cities.
OBSERVATION – Growing civil unrest in a nuclear bomb equipped nation – not a good mix. Like playing with matches in an ammo bunker.
Iran -
Fresh demonstrations occurred in the northwestern Iranian city of Marivan on Sunday, following the death of Kurdish student Nasrin Ghaderi.
The latest flare of protests comes as anti-government demonstrations in Iran continued for a seventh week in one of the biggest shows of dissent in years.
OBSERVATION – There are also calls from within the regime for even more violent response to put the protests down. At some point these protests are going to seriously detract from Iranian policy games and they will be forced into even harsher responses. At this stage, the current harsh actions to try to put the protests down have only energized them.
Lebanon -
Once known for its stable and investment-friendly banking system, Lebanon has plunged into chaos as hyperinflation grips the country and banks force huge haircuts on dollar withdrawals. To make ends meet in a financial system that no longer makes sense, some Lebanese are mining bitcoin or storing wealth using the cryptocurrency.
OBSERVATION – Hezebollah controlled failed state. Once a beautiful land now impoverished by its radical Islamic warlords.
Syria -
Assad’s forces bombed refugee camps near Idlib with BM-27 Uragan rockets. Each on those rockets contain 100s of cluster bomblets. Initial reports of 80 casualties among civilians. The opposition Syrian Interim Government calls on the international community to put an end to “the persistence of the Assad government and its allies and to stop their crimes.”
OBSERVATION – The ongoing (un)civil war in Syria continues on and hitting a refugee camp where refugees are packed in tightly in tents and simple shacks is unthinkable to our western minds. Syria shows no signs of becoming civilized in any measure for a long, long time.