Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

Another wild week.

Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key

BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.

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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ukraine war has allowed GGR to operate towards the ‘reset’ without much news coverage.

The Biden administration on Thursday unveiled an international “Declaration for the Future of the Internet” with 50 other countries, slamming the policies of “authoritarian” governments — while endorsing efforts to curb online “disinformation” and “harassment.” The document outlines ideas for “reclaiming the promise of the Internet” and US officials described it as an effort to counter the practices of countries including China and Russia.

OBSERVATION - Key words “disinformation” and “harassment” are going to be front and center over the next few months as biden (as well as other GGR syncopaths) seek to control internet speech in a greater manner.
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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Doom cries about a new ‘variant’ poking their head up.

Denmark has become the first country to halt its Covid vaccination program, saying it is doing so because the virus is now under control. Far from scrapping its vaccination program altogether, however, the Danish Health and Medicines Authority said there will probably be a need to vaccinate against Covid-19 again in the fall as the virus continues to mutate.

The World Health Organization’s Maria Van Kerkhove said that the next COVID variant could be a cause for concern, as too many variants are currently in circulation. The uncertainty of what the next COVID variant could remain a significant cause of concern for the WHO.
“We need to plan for different kinds of scenarios,” Van Kerkhove said. She also pointed out that Omicron is currently dominant worldwide, adding that the WHO is currently tracking sublineages and sister lineages of the variant – BA.4, BA.5, BA.2.12.1.

OBSERVATION - The solution, according to the rulers, is the “vaccine.” Yet, in the age of the vaccine, people are still getting sick and being hospitalized and dying of the disease they were injected against. Other “health officials” have also stated that the vaccine doesn’t stop transmission or therefore, infection.

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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world.

With the contraction of the GDP this week by 1.4%, economists are peering into their cups trying to discern what the tea leaves are saying. With that comes renewed discussion of stagflation. Others look at it as confirmation of an impending recession. Possibly a combination of the two.

The sharp drops in stocks and bonds is a warning sign that the Federal Reserve could trigger a financial crisis by hiking interest rates aggressively, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood has said. Wood’s comment came on the same day Deutsche Bank predicted a major US recession in a research note. The bank said the Fed would have to increase rates to above 5%, from the current level of 0.25%, to get a grip on inflation.
The Ark Invest CEO also said the recent sharp rise in the dollar was a warning signal, and is becoming a problem for the global economy. The dollar index has risen 7.44% in 2022 to 103.10, as of Wednesday.

Senator Chuck Schumer claims the “only way” to reduce inflation is to raise taxes on Americans. NOTE - a real case for term limits.
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Biden’s policies guarantee uncontrollable flood of illegals starting next month.

A leaked draft of a 2020 internal ICE report states that the “Alternatives to Detention” program, which has cost $1.46 billion since it started in 2004, has “little value.” The program uses ICE-provided ankle monitors and smartphones using the SmartLink program for tracking illegal immigrants released by authorities. An average of 84% of illegal immigrants leave the program, ditch devices, or delete tracking applications to live in the United States illegally. Some 216,000 illegal immigrants are currently enrolled in the program. (FO)

OBSERVATION - One would almost consider this to have been deliberately put together in order to fail.
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Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.

Joe Biden struggled to speak earlier today as he discussed specific actions the United States is taking to punish those close to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Biden promised to “accommodate” the “oligarchs” before laughing twice.
Biden promised to “Enhance our underlying effort to accommodate the Russian oligarchs and make sure we take their, take their ill begotten gains.” At this point, Biden apparently realized he got a word wrong, and began laughing. We’re going to accommodate them,” said Biden, fighting laughter.
“We’re going to seize their yachts, their luxury homes, and other ill begotten gains of Putin’s kleptocric– yeah, kleptocracy, the guys who are the kleptocracies,” Biden said before laughing again. He then summarized, “But these are bad guys.”

OBSERVATION - It is becoming painful watching biden press conferences/appearances due to the rapid decline in mental ability. It makes me wonder why his handlers are still putting him in front of cameras ?
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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - BLM/Antifa maintaining lowered presence outside of base areas (Portland, Seattle etc). There are continued events like first aid and riot training. Rampant crime continues with it migrating into affluent areas.

Building tension in Kenosha WI where some want to put up a memorial for Anthony Huber, one of the men Kyle Rittenhouse killed in self defense. Huber’s girlfriend Hannah Gittings requested on April 5 that a memorial marker be placed in Huber’s memory at a flowering dogwood in Anderson Park, according to public documents attached to the committee’s agenda reviewed by Fox News Digital. Vocal opposition to the plan caused the proposal to be tabled.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT - YELLOW *updated 01-28-22*

Musk’s take over of Twitter still causing shockwaves in the liberal snowflake world.
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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*

Battles over congressional redistricting maps is ongoing hot and heavy and so far democrat attempts to gerrymander them in order to preserve their House majority have been failing in court challenges bigly.

The day after the Biden Admin announced a new program that essentially amounts to a Ministry of Truth., Congressman Hank Johnson asked DHS Secretary Mayorkas about how he plans to stop misinformation.
“Mr. Secretary, mimicking false claims of ex-president Trump, we continue to see social media posts claiming “if our election systems continue to be rigged and continue to be stolen, then it’s gonna lead to one place and it’s bloodshed.”

OBSERVATION - Not the Bee nailed it. -
“the Congressman (Johnson ) who was worried that Guam would “tip over” & “capsize” because of too many people is worried about “disinformation.”

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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
On-going NATO support operations to Ukraine.
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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
DISCUSSION - Shanghai (now 5 weeks in duration) and potentially a Beijing lockdown have created internal strife as well as more global economic supply woes with the shut down of key ports.
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North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - North Korea held a highly-expected military parade on Monday. Meanwhile NUKE test watch continues as work at the test site continues.

According to Yonhap, it appears that North Korea is be continuing work to restore the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. The test site was ostensibly demolished in May 25th 2018 ahead of the historic summit with the United States. The site had tests in, 2006, 2009, 2013, 2016/17.

OBSERVATION - Some geologists noted that after the last nuclear test (thermonuclear - H Bomb), the structural integrity of the underground test site was probably compromised. This could result in rock failure from another test - releasing a considerable amount of radioactive material into the air.

Last week, the South Korean Navy conducted dual missile launch tests of its KSS-III submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) system. The new SLBM is based on South Korea’s Hyunmoo-2B, a land-based ballistic missile that has a range of 500 km.
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Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - Japan continues to upgrade its military and alliances in the face of Chinese aggression and NK nuclear aspirations.

In a rare update of Japan’s National Security Strategy, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has proposed an increase to the country’s defense budget to 2% of GDP and direct the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to develop a “counter-strike” capability to disable enemy missiles and command and control facilities. The plan is reportedly in response to the changing security environment in the Pacific (FO)
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Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - ONGOING -

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has kicked off their offensive to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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A senior U.S. defense official said today that Russian troops are making “slow, uneven and incremental” progress in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas. The Russians are meeting strong resistance from the Ukrainian forces, and there’s lots of “back and forth” in the daily fighting, but no “huge changes,” the official said.
As Russia addresses the logistical problems its forces had in the early days of the war, it’s operating in a relatively cautious manner to avoid overextending its supply lines, the official said. He noted that the Russians “sprinted” toward Kyiv in the first days of the fighting, and then found themselves stuck because they couldn’t be resupplied in a timely manner. (NPR)

Personnel Issues -
- It is being reported that Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov will take personal command of the Russian offensive in the Izyum direction……If confirmed, the appointment of Russia’s senior general officer to command tactical operations indicates both the importance of the Izyum drive to Russia’s war in Ukraine and the breakdown in the Russian military’s normal chain of command.

- Gerasimov apparently will replace Gen Dvornikov who was appointed head of the “special military operation” in Ukraine in mid-April when it became clear that Russia had made numerous strategic mistakes on the ground. Dvornikov is one of Putin’s most loyal men, who has a reputation as a tough guy among tough guys. Some rumors have popped up that he was one of the three generals killed in the recent Ukrainan strike of a CP in Kherson. Speculation is that he was unable to get the job done.

- Update of Russian senior officer losses
- Arrested - 1 Admiral, 21 Generals and 150 FSB officers;
- 10 Generals KIA;
- 20 Colonels KIA;
- 34 Lt Colonels KIA (+2);
- 4 Navy Captains.

Economic Hits -
- Russia is facing its biggest slump in oil production since the finals days of the Soviet Union, as Western sanctions continue to batter the economy. The Kremlin sees output falling as much as 17% this year, according to a document from Russia’s economy ministry seen by Reuters. Russian oil production began to drop in March, and by mid-April was already down by 7.5%, according to Reuters.
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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Ukraine has entered its third month.

WEATHER FORECAST - The 10 day forecast has clearing and drying conditions. This may make off road maneuvering more favorable towards the end of the forecast period. .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

The United States Congress has passed lend-lease legislation that will make it easier to export military equipment to Ukraine, reviving a World War II-era US weapons financing program.
The US House of Representatives overwhelmingly backed the “Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022” on Thursday by a vote of 417 to 10, sending the bill to President Joe Biden for his signature. The bill had sailed through the Senate with unanimous support.

Russia made minor advances over the course of the past week in the general Donbas region. Russia supported these advances with considerable artillery support. These advances also displayed more coordination in the southern Khariv front, developing along parallel and mutually supporting axis. These axises however are strongly road bound and Russia appears to be cautious not to outstrip its logistics tail.

Along other fronts, Russian reinforcements continue to deploy to Belgorod to support the Izyum advance. Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant continue to hold out against heavy Russian artillery and aerial bombardment, including the likely use of multi-ton “bunker-buster” bombs against a Ukrainian field hospital.

Kyiv front -
Three Russian missiles hit Kyiv an infrastructure object, as well as a residential complex near it were damaged. More infrastructure was hit in Kyiv suburbs too. All this during an official visit of UN’s Secretary-General
UN Secretary General told reporters he’s shocked by Russia carrying out a missile attack on Kyiv while he’s on the city for talks with President Zelensky.
Zelenskyy says the bombing of Kyiv while Guterres was present is “aimed at humiliating the United Nations”

OBSERVATION - Russia did not hit Kyiv with missiles during visits of other world leaders. He did hit railways after the US SecState and SecDef departed for Poland from Kyiv.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
NOTE - Combined these two fronts.

Ukraine’s Border Guard Service reported Russian forces fired at border checkpoints in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Russian forces continued to strike Khariv and surrounding with artillery fire.

Ukrainian forces continue to make gains around Kharkiv, who’s troops have entered the outskirts of Rus’ka Lozova and have secured full control of Kutuzivka. If Ukraine takes Kozacha Lopan or Rus’ka Lozova then Ukraine might plan to pressure Belgorod doesn’t seem far fetched. See OUTLOOK for more discussions on the implication of Ukrainan advances in area.

Russian forces in Izyum continued attacks on three lines of advance – southeast towards Slovyansk, southwest towards Barvinkove, and directly west away from Donetsk Oblast Russian troops unsuccessfully attempted to advance at Brazhkivka, Dovhenke in Kharkiv region

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant continue to hold out.

Russian forces conducted several assaults west of Donetsk, attempting to advance on Solodke, Novomykhailivka, and Marinka; and Russian forces attempted to advance north of Mariupol in the area of Neskuchne and Vremivka.

According to US officials, Russia is reportedly moving “significant” numbers of troops out of Mariupol to the north and northwest: senior U.S. defense official. Troops moving to the north will likely be associated with a push to Dnipro while those headed northwest associated with a push on Zaporizhia.

Truckloads of grain were observed being carried off toward Russia from Russian occupied Melitopol. Russia stealing Ukrainian grain.

Crimea Front -
See-saw conflicts in this area overnight. Russian forces advanced west of Kherson moving North-West from Molodets’ke, managing to reach and capture Tavrijs´ke. They were eventually stopped at Nova Zorya. Russian forces recently took Oleksandrivka but have once again withdrawn and there are Ukrainan troops present in the settlement.
Russian troops unsuccessfully attempted to advance Rubizhne of Luhansk region, near Oleksandrivka, Tavriyske, Ivanivka and Zahradivka in Kherson region.
Russian actions appear to want to capture the western border of Kherson Oblast and threaten Mykolaiv .

A railway bridge in Russian-occupied territory used to moved weapons and supplies from Crimea to Melitopol was destroyed yesterday.

Air defense units shot down three Russian missiles over the Odesa district overnight.

Western Ukraine -
No significant actions.

Russian Territory -
At least 2 Large Explosions have reportedly been heard in the Western Russian city of Belgorod, there have been no indications on what has caused them. Russian Air Defenses also now being reported Active over the City, it’s possible the Explosions may have been Missile Interceptions.

OUTLOOK -
Russia will continue to press attacks into the Donbas region. So far they have gained little ground and suffered heavy losses and there is no evidence that they will change their tactics. The change in consolidated Russian leadership now to Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov suggests that there will be another period of trying to reorganization and restructure of the combat units; renewal or update of operation plans and appropriate logistical adjustments/priorities.

Actions in the Crimea front area may well be tied to unrest in Moldova/Transnistria. Russia may try to do something to enable an amphibious operation to seize Odesa from the west. This would require a supporting Russian assault from the east from Kherson. Both very difficult and dangerous at this stage and I question the ability to pull it off.

Ukraine pushes towards the Russian border in the vicinity of Kharkiv may raise potential implications for an actual Ukraine invasion of Russia directed towards Belgorod. As noted above, if Ukraine takes Kozacha Lopan or Rus’ka Lozova the path to Belgorod opens up, located only about 60 km from Ukraine. Ukraine wouldn’t have to do too much, as the threat to this key Russian supply base for its eastern Donbas operation would cause them to have to divert even more resources to protect this critical rear area.
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Moldova/Transnistria - ORANGE *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - This category added this week as false flag events hit Russian controlled Transnistria and Russia agitates this small country.

Events here are developing rapidly.

Israel, Bulgaria, Romania, USA, Canada, Germany, and Russia have called on their citizens to leave Moldova and the Transnistria region as soon as possible. Confirmation on the UK and Canada. Both advise you avoid travel to Transnistria, and urge extreme caution if you’re traveling in Moldova.

After the Moldavian Breakaway Region of Transnistria banned all men between the ages of 18-55 from leaving the “Country” earlier today, the Transnistrian Ministry of Defense has reportedly ordered a General Mobilization though the Supreme Council is yet to approve the Order. Transnistrian President Krasnoselsky ordered the Ministry of Internal Affairs to “be ready for any scenario,” but (likely falsely) denied reports that Transnistrian authorities are preventing men of fighting age from leaving the region.
The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Transnistria is preparing to fully staff its military units and increase their readiness.

Former defense minister Vitalie Marinuța said that Moldova has much to fear in the current situation in Ukraine and the threat to Chisinau from “the fifth column,” consisting of the Gagauzia and “also pro-Russian Socialists and Communists”.

The UK sent an intelligence report to Ukraine that Russia is preparing a landing in Transnistria if an escalation begins. Additional forces of the Russian army are being transferred to Crimea, and the Black Sea Fleet is preparing an operation in the Bessarabia region.

OBSERVATION - More unrest developing in this area.
BLUF - What Russia has in mind here is not very clear yet. Obviously they are up to something, but at this point is appears their options are limited.
NOTE on the UK intelligence report. The Transnistra region is completely land locked, so any transfer of Russia forces there have to be either via a contested amphibious operation through Ukrainan territory (already armed to the teeth expecting such an operation), of airborne over Ukraine territory (armed to the teeth with anti air missiles - and some help from western airborne intelligence assets) or via Romania (who’s closed airspace to all Russian aircraft and would view such an incursion an act of war).

Russian forces in Transnistra are only about 2 -3 poorly trained and equipped battalions, totally inadequate to engage Ukraine in a meaningful manner, but sufficient to create a lot of problems with Moldova proper. Due to historic ties to Romania, the breakout of more separatist actions here could draw Romania in and potentially result in a conflict with Russian forces - triggering Article 5.

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Belarus - ORANGE *updated 04-22-22*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.

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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland remains in Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.

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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - NATO nations continue to funnel war supplies to Ukraine. Now they are hosting Ukrainan soldiers training on more modern pieces of equipment being delivered to the country.

The European Union says it’s planning a response to Russian energy giant Gazprom after it abruptly halted gas shipments to two EU countries.
Gazprom shut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, ostensibly for refusing to pay for the imports in rubles. Polish and Bulgarian authorities view the stoppage as retaliation for the EU’s support of Ukraine.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the move a failed attempt to blackmail Europe.
The German Chancellor warned that the country must be prepared for Russia to cut off gas supplies, similar to what happened to Poland and Bulgaria.

On Thursday lawmakers in the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house of parliament, voted overwhelmingly to approve sending “heavy weapons and complex machinery” to Ukraine. According to national media it passed with 586 votes in favor, 100 against, and seven abstentions.

Senior officials from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland met on Friday to discuss the NATO security situation in the Baltic region. The group agreed that NATO needs to deploy additional troops to the Baltics.

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Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Several terror attacks by West Bank Palestinians has caused tensions to skyrocket over the past week.
Ongoing clashes between Palestinians and ISF at Al Aqsa Mosque Yard were the main topic this past week along with the almost regularly scheduled IAF air strikes on Hezebollah facilities in and around Syria. Hamas appears to have been able to reign in PIJ and other splinter groups to prevent an all out bombing campaign against Gaza.

“In light of the deteriorating security situation in the Transnistria region and in light of the fact that the Foreign Ministry’s ability to provide assistance to Israeli citizens residing there is restricted, Israeli citizens are urged to leave Transnistria as soon as possible.”

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Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*
DISCUSSION - Iran still playing the west like a fiddle over the ongoing nuclear arms talks.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan - YELLOW

Secretary of State Antony Blinken says there is “greater stability and peace” for women in the Taliban-led Afghanistan
OBSERVATION - One has to wonder if this guy is on drugs, making statements like this.
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Turkey - YELLOW *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - Turkey kicked off operations in both Northern Syria and N Iraq targeting the Kurdish PKK. Most aggressive ground ops by Turkey against these elements in a while.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

This guy is scary. Yuval Hariri, an Israeli professor of history who has profoundly influenced Klaus Schwab, explained at a recent globalist conference, exactly what the COVID pandemic was being used by the globalist elites to do: “COVID is critical because this is what convinces people to accept, to legitimize, total biometric surveillance. If we want to stop this epidemic — we need to not just monitor people, we need to monitor what is happening underneath their skin.” “Maybe in a couple of decades, when people look back, the thing they will remember from the COVID crisis, is: this is the moment when everything went digital. This was the moment when everything became monitored — that we agreed to be surveilled all the time. Not just in authoritarian regimes but even in democracies. This was the moment when surveillance went under the skin.”

OBSERVATION - Individual “monitoring” sniffs of global crackdown of individual liberties of a biblical scale.
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Wuhan virus -

Rhode Island lawmakers have proposed a bill that would require residents 16 and older to be COVID vaccinated. Those who don’t comply would be fined.

A relatively long and technical article on A biodistribution study of the Pfizer Covid-19 jabs. Readable at the following link -

https://dailyexpose.uk/2022/04/29/pfizer-study-mrna-vaccines-suspended/

BLUF - Pfizer buried data showing that the stuff in the jabs was not staying in place, like they claimed. This is more evidence of fraud and misrepresentation of the ’science’ involved.

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Economy -

Food issues grow. First suffering from drought condition, now the Dakotas are suffering from too much snow and rain, causing foods and conditions that are preventing U.S. spring-wheat farmers from planting in the high-producing crop region.
Meanwhile in India, an unusually early, record-shattering heat wave has reduced wheat yields, raising questions about how the country will balance its domestic needs with ambitions to increase exports and make up for shortfalls due to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

OBSERVATION - Thought both could also be listed under “Black Swan” events, these reports demonstrate that this year’s already stressed global harvests are becoming even more so, with the end result being shortages and increasing prices.

Disposable income fell in March after adjusting for inflation, the Commerce Department said Friday. Real disposable personal income, which is income after taxes and inflation, fell 0.4 percent in March compared with February. This was the seventh time in the last eight months that disposable personal income in the U.S. fell from the previous month. It rose in February by 0.15 percent.

An inflation gauge closely tracked by the Federal Reserve jumped 6.6% in March compared with a year ago, the highest 12-month reading of the personal consumption index (PCE) in four decades, further evidence that surging prices are pressuring household budgets and the health of the economy.

Markets have taken a beating in April. The benchmark S&P 500 fell 3.6% Friday and finished April with an 8.8% loss, its worst monthly slide since March 2020. The Dow lost 939 points, lowering its value by 2.8%.
The Nasdaq composite, heavily weighted with technology stocks, bore the brunt of the damage this month, ending April with a 13.3% loss, its biggest monthly decline since the 2008 financial crisis. On Friday, it lost 537 points, or 4.17%.
Much of the anxiety on Wall Street in April has centered around how quickly the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate and whether an aggressive series of hikes will crimp economic growth.

OBSERVATION- Markets are forward looking to a lot of economic chaos towards the end of the FY, coincidentally around the midterm election time frame.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Yesterday, Antifa attacked participants of the People’s Convoy driving on the freeway through Portland by throwing projectiles & paint on the vehicles below.

The FBI may have conducted millions of warrantless searches of Americans’ electronic data last year, U.S. intelligence officials acknowledged in a report released Friday. The report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence revealed that the bureau conducted up to 3.4 million searches of U.S. data drawn from the National Security Agency.

OBSERVATION - It is even clear to the village idiot - our government is becoming increasingly lawless and targeting citizens for future ideological crackdowns.

The Disinformation Governance Board is being tasked with addressing election related issues, cracking down on dissenting opinions under the guise of fighting “disinformation.”
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un warned yet again that the North could preemptively use its nuclear weapons if threatened, as he praised his top military officials over the staging of a massive military parade in the capital, Pyongyang, this week.
Kim expressed “firm will” to continue developing his nuclear-armed military so that it could “preemptively and thoroughly contain and frustrate all dangerous attempts and threatening moves, including ever-escalating nuclear threats from hostile forces, if necessary,” the North’s official Korean Central News Agency said Saturday.

OBSERVATION - SK’s new govt has already stated it will be upping its defense forces to include a first strike capability against NK . Kim’s problem is that the NK army has deteriorated significantly with outdated and poorly maintained equipment, and half starved soldiers because he has diverted so much money into nuclear strike capability.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 65)

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Eyes are increasing upon Russia and Putin as the May 9th “V” day celebrations approach. The British Ministry of Defense has reportedly seen indications that Russian President Putin is preparing a Statement for May 9th during the Victory Parade in Moscow, which its expected a General Mobilization and a Declaration of War against Ukraine will be declared.

OBSERVATION - This general mobilization concern has been floating around for over a month. It would not have much immediate bearing on the current situation in Ukraine as it would take months to mobilize and train soldiers and get them into combat in addition to trying to equip them with armor and other vehicles necessary (and in abundantly short supply). This could be used to more aggressively use strategic arms, potentially targeting Nato support to Ukraine. Recent rhetoric from the Kremlin has been warning Poland, and other countries of Russia’s wrath.

Russian state TV has brazenly simulated how Vladimir Putin would launch a nuclear strike on three capital cities in Europe, declaring there would be ‘no survivors’, in response to comments made by the UK’s Armed Forces Minister supporting Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure.
Hosts on Channel One’s 60 Minutes program announced the cities of London, Paris and Berlin could be hit within 200 seconds of nuclear missiles being launched, as tensions ramp up amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

OBSERVATION - Remember, they broadcast what putin directs/allows.

Logistics -
- According to Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Russia lost over 1,000 tanks since the start of the full-scale invasion. No European country, except Ukraine and Russia, even has that many tanks.
- Numerous pundits point to Russian tank reserves as being over 10,000 that is on paper. Reality shows that the Russian stockpile consists of largely canibalized (or pilfered) Cold War era tanks that only about 10% could be considered combat ready. It includes T-54 and T-62 vintage models.
- Wuhan induced supply shortages, combined with sanctions, has shut down Russian factories producing tanks and armored vehicles, as well as other materials for war.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia has been forced to merge and redeploy depleted and disparate units in eastern Ukraine, the UK’s Ministry of Defence says and “many of these units are likely suffering from weakened morale”.
- Russia’s personnel losses in Ukraine have now passed 23,000 in 65 days of war: Ukraine military estimate. When compared to the confirmed Russian equipment losses, the number of deaths is not extreme. Multiply by 3 to 4 to gain an estimate of total wounded. These are huge numbers, close to 100,000 total casualties.

Economic Impacts -
- Russia made what appeared to be a late u-turn to avoid a default on Friday, as it made a number of already-overdue international debt payments in dollars despite previously vowing they would only be paid in rubles. Whether the money would make it to the United States and other Western countries that sanctioned Russia was still not clear, but it represented another major twist in the game of financial chicken that has developed about a possible default
- The EU is reportedly going to start implementing a phased oil embargo on Russia from next week

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying..

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Russian forces continue their push between Izyum and Popasna in an effort to capture Russian troops continued to shell the entire frontline in Donetsk and Luhansk and secured several tactical advances, reportedly captured Yampil (directly west of Severodonetsk). Continued advances on multiple axises have reached the point where there are growing concerns that some Ukrainian forces (probably elements of 57th Motorized Brigade) east of Izyum are at risk of at least a partial encirclement/getting trapped north of Siverskyi Donets river. However these Russian advances are facing stiff opposition and Russians continue to have high men and equipment losses.

The southern side of the Donbas offensive has a lot of Russian artillery hitting the Ukraine side of the LOC, but little movement. Increased activity coming from the Crimea front, however, Ukraine forces are making headway to interfere with support to the Dombas offensive. Ukraine still has forces holding out in the steel plant, though it seems Russian is content to limit operations against it.

Kyiv front -
Another mass grave with 900 people found in Kyiv Oblast.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.

Ukrainian forces continued limited counterattacks directly northeast of Kharkiv city and recaptured Ruska Lozova (10km north of the city)

Russian shelling in Rubizhne, Popasna, Hirske and Orikhove as Russian forces continue to make slow headway west.

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian airstrikes continued to bombard the Azovstal plant and Russian forces did not conduct any major ground attacks as forces continued to redeploy from Mariupol. Russian forces likely intend to both consolidate their control of Mariupol and advance false Kremlin rhetoric of “liberation,” rather than a military occupation.

Crimea Front -
All across the eastern portion of the Crimean front heavy Russian artillery fire. Huliaipilske, Preobrazhenka, Vremivka, Olhivske, Zelene Pole, Poltavka, Chervone, Malynivka, Novodanylivka, Belogorye, Mala Tokmachka, Orikhiv, Novopil, Pershotravneve, Temerivka, Novoandriivka, Kamyanske were shelled. This is most likely precursor fires to get the southern component of the Donbas pincer attack started.

Russian forces did not make any confirmed attacks in Kherson Oblast and appear to be prioritizing improving their tactical positions. Russian forces shelled several towns in Kherson, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts

Ukraine has been targeting rail bridges in the Crimea area. It has reportedly hit several bridges that severely impacts the front’s logistics plus requires more combat vehicle escorts for truck convoys needed to replace railway shipments. This further dilutes Russian Army combat power at the South where Ukraine is pushing

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant reported.

Russian Territory -

2 projectiles hit at oil depot in Zchena of Bryansk region. Explosions reported south to Belgorod in the sky.

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term. Expect continued Russian attacks southeast from Izyum, west from Kreminna and Popasna, and north from Donetsk City. More steady, tactical gains expected against Ukrainian defenders are expected, but at a high cost in Russian personnel and equipment. The Russian pace will not be fast to prevent it from outstripping its logistical tail.
Ukrainan forces likely to continue its mobile defense tactics to counter the russian pressure, keeping it from being tied down and destroyed. Continued influx of weapons and munitions will provide it with the means to not only strike the lead elements but rear areas/ follow on logistics.

Watching closely developments from the Crimea front, with the heavy artillery fire in the Zaporizhia area probably a precursor to a more aggressive ground assault designed to link up with the operation in the Izyum region.
Also monitoring any Russian movements/activities that would suggest an attempt to get Russian forces into Transnistra via area east of Odessa.

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Moldova/Transnistria -

Events here are developing rapidly.

Unconfirmed reports that Russian forces are disseminating pro-Kremlin disinformation in Transnistria and may be preparing to use Transnistria as a “springboard for aggression” against Ukraine and Moldova.
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Europe / NATO General -

“NATO fighter jets stationed around the Baltic and Black Seas have scrambled multiple times over the past four days to track and intercept Russian aircraft near Alliance airspace”
OBSERVATION - Dangerous game of chicken developing.

DOD announces training of Ukrainian troops on artillery, radar, armored vehicles is happening at U.S. bases in Germany
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Israel -

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel against continuing its “aggression against the Iranian presence in the region,” saying Iran may “attack Israel directly, during a video address delivered at a ceremony in Beirut on Friday as Iran and its proxies marked Quds Day.

Arab violence targeting Jews praying at the Western Wall forced the Israeli police to reenter the Temple Mount on Friday morning. The police were attacked by the Arabs throwing rocks and incendiary devices. The police responded by firing rubber bullets and tear gas.
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May Day - Socialists around the world try to strut their stuff.

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Globalism / Great Reset -

Northern Ireland will need to lose more than 1 million sheep and cattle to meet its new legally binding climate emissions targets, according to an industry-commissioned analysis seen by the Guardian.
The large-scale reduction in farm animals comes after the passing of the jurisdiction’s first ever climate act, requiring the farming sector to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and reduce methane emissions by almost 50% over the same period. About a third of human-caused methane emissions come from livestock, mostly from the burps and manure of beef and dairy cattle. Analysis by KPMG, commissioned by industry representatives including the Ulster Farmers’ Union (UFU), estimates more than 500,000 cattle and about 700,000 sheep would need to be lost in order for Northern Ireland to meet the new climate targets. Separate analysis by the UK government’s climate advisers suggests chicken numbers would also need to be cut by 5 million by 2035. Agriculture accounts for about 27% of Northern Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions, with the vast majority coming from livestock. Its heavily export-driven meat industry principally supplies Great Britain, but it also exports to China and North America.

In related news, Bill Gates is spouting off about his view of meat. “I do think all rich countries should move to 100 percent synthetic beef. You can get used to the taste difference, and the claim is they’re going to make it taste even better over time,” he said.
Gates even went as far to say that governmental compulsion is an option.
“Eventually, that green premium is modest enough that you can sort of change the [behavior of] people or use regulation to totally shift the demand,” he said Gates noted there is a resistance to the new order of things as he sees it. “Now I’ve said I can actually see a path. But you’re right that saying to people, ‘You can’t have cows anymore’ — talk about a politically unpopular approach to things,” Gates said.

OBSERVATION - Using the global warming argument, the GGR seeks to control populations by controlling the food supply - I’ve mentioned this numerous times. Replacing the meat and dairy sector with, for instance, potatoes would decimate the economy as well. At this stage, how this will be enforced is not certain, however, farmers certainly are not going to give up willingly.

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Wuhan virus -

The CDC just released new VAERS data for all adverse events related to the COVID Vaxx injections, from Dec 2020 to April of this year.
1) They report, among other outcomes, a total of 12,672 U.S deaths alleged to be causally related to the vaccine.
2) Reports are not necessarily correct, as allegation does not equal causation, but the trend generally supports that conclusion, which is why we have a VAERS in the first place.
3) For historical reference, VAERS generally only gets reports filed on about 1% of actual incidents.

If the extrapolation of data is correct, then conservatively there could be as many as 1.2 million jab induced deaths. And this doesn’t even begin to factor in the permanent disabilities reported, which are four times as frequently reported as are actual deaths. For historical comparison, when they rush-released a vaccine for Swine Flu in 1976, it was pulled from further use after a mere 32 deaths, and 500 cases of Giullain-Barre Syndrome.

OBSERVATION - All about power folks, the GGR openly says so.

Moderna on Thursday sought emergency use authorization for the Covid-19 vaccine for children ages 6 months to 5 years. The FDA is expected to make a decision on this request in June, according to NBC News.

OBSERVATION - Expect a big push to jab for the next school year. Children are at virtually zero risk of dying from the wuhan virus.
- There are approximately 500 children who die every year from the seasonal flu.
- Each year over 1200 children are killed in roadside fatalities.
- And approximately 700 children drown.

DOJ is dropping investigations into the disproportionate deaths in nursing homes from wuhan. A 2020 study revealed that only 0.6% of the US population lives in nursing homes over 45% of the coronavirus deaths were in these centers.

A new study found a correlation between an increase in emergency cardiovascular events among people under 40 years of age during the launch of Israel’s COVID-19 vaccine program.
Published in the Nature journal, researchers utilized data from the Israel National Emergency Medical Services between 2019 and 2021 that evaluated emergency, or EMS, calls among 16- to 39-year-olds across Israel “with potential factors including COVID-19 infection and vaccination rates.”
They found that there was a 25 percent increase in EMS calls between January 2021 to May 2021, as compared with the years 2019 and 2020. Israel, which primarily uses Pfizer’s mRNA vaccine, launched its COVID-19 vaccine program in late December 2020.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-10928-z

OBSERVATION - As more time elapses, more and more information becomes available for evaluation by the medical community that cannot be ignored. The only reason it isn’t front page is in part Ukraine war and suppression by the MSM, though Nature has a wide audience.
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Invasion of Illegals -

This could also be listed under Domestic Terror. A report from Judicial Watch that cites an unnamed senior Homeland Security official said Mexican drug cartels have launched more than 9,000 drone flights into America over the past year. The drones are sent to spy on law enforcement and related security operations in the Texas area, the official said.

As we’ve seen elsewhere, drones are capable of collection a significant amount of intelligence and in this case, border is falling under increasing control by Mexican drug cartels. if unchecked, the only way we will be able to regain control is through a military operation as law enforcement is ill prepared and staffed to regain control against such well armed and equipped cartel forces.

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CW2/Domestic violence -

Follow up on the Antifa attack of participants of the People’s Convoy in Portland . The attack was openly organized on Twitter. There are also unconfirmed reports that the attacks drew defensive weapons fire by some of the members of the convoy.

Speaking of Antifa, numerous May Day events across the country are being planned for today. Antifa in Portland, Ore. are holding an event at 1 p.m. at Laurelhurst Park. They use the event to recruit new members & to further radicalize existing ones.
Seattle Antifa are promoting the communist May Day march happening at Judkins Park at 1 pm. The Seattle May Day events are infamous for violence. Starbucks is closing its 5th & Pike Street location in order to protect staff. Antifa are also calling for violence against amazon.

This is being hammered elsewhere on FR and the inter webs, but I’d like to expand some key points here. The DHS Disinformation Governance Board’s mission is to curb disinformation and radicalization. Those are codewords that refer to ‘facts the administration does not like’ and ‘ideas contrary to its own’. Of particular note in this regard, according to DHS Secretary Mayorkas disinformation is any “election misinformation.” The nut job put uncharge of this ‘board’ is Nina Jankowicz, a Democratic party operative. She has spent her time since 2016 pushing the obscene Trump-Russia collusion narrative and assuring you Hunter Biden’s laptop is not real. More recently, she expounded on the science of biology stating “there are many non-binary people who give birth” — despite the basic fact that pregnancy is biologically unique to women.

Let’s add a new layer, all of this is occurring under the direction of Joshua Geltzer. Geltzer is the Special Assistant to the President and Special Advisor to the Homeland Security Advisor on Countering Domestic Violent Extremism. In this role, Geltzer oversaw the creation of the new national strategy for countering domestic violent extremism. This is the absurd document produced by the Biden administration, which claimed that white supremacists (read Trump supporters) posed the number one threat to American national security.

OBSERVATION - Timing is everything and I don’t think it is coincidence that this is being trotted out when the democrats are facing a bloodbath in the midterms of gigantic proportions if the polling data is valid. What is still missing - and am looking for help to find - is just what kind of a hammer does this Jankowicz have to enforce her future edicts on what she calls ‘disinformation’? Will she have powers to arrest of fine people? Inquiring minds want to know. But this is one component of the convergence of a ‘perfect storm’ for domestic craziness as the midterms get closer.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -

Musk still has liberals in turmoil.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 65)

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
A Russian AN-30 violated Swedish airspace near a major naval base. This is an unarmed reconnaissance aircraft and likely flew to tweak Sweden regarding application to NATO.

Observers monitoring the upcoming Russian May 9th parade preps note that there will be no Su-30SM & Su-34 on the air part of the parade in Moscow. They will be replaced by MiG-29s that have already been taken off the shelves & in addition to older Su-24s. Apparently, all available equipment is used against Ukraine.

RUMINT -
Putin may be forced to give up control of the war in Ukraine for days as he is set for cancer surgery, a ‘Kremlin insider’ has claimed. He will reportedly nominate hardline Security Council head and ex-FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev to take control of the invasion while he is under the knife. Patrushev, 70, is seen as a key architect of the war strategy so far - and the man who convinced Putin that Kyiv is awash with neo-Nazis. Rumors persist that Putin has abdominal cancer and Parkinson’s.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Reportedly (pending further confirmation) Major General Andrey Dmitriyevich Simonov was killed in an attack on a Russian Ground Forces HQ in north of Izyum. Commanding the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army (2nd CAA) known to be operating in the area around Izyum.

Economic Impacts -
- The Finnish government and companies are preparing for the cessation of natural gas supplies from Russia in May.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying..

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Pelosi and a congressional delegation made a surprise visit to Kyiv and met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

I’ve noted that the fight for Donbas will be fluid and today is no exception. Following some Russian successes over the past few days, analysis by Western officials and analysts is that Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine appears to be faltering, as its troops suffer battlefield losses and logistical and morale problems similar to those they faced in the war’s first phase. In part this may be due to the recent loss of the CG for the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army in Izyum as well as the Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov reportedly taking charge of the Dombas operation . Russian advances are once again very road bound and Ukraine is increasingly hitting logistics hard. Russian forces are relying upon heavy artillery to support frontal attacks on prepared defenses, as i’ve pointed out many times resulting in heavy losses.

Kyiv front -
Pelosi et al visited Kyiv.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.

Ukraine announced that it had liberated four more villages (Ruska Lozova, Slobidske, Prelesne and Verkhnia Rohanka) from the outskirts of Kharkiv. This follows the recapture of Momotove yesterday. Ukrainian forces continue to push Russia back from Kharkiv city. The Institute for War Studies says this has been part a series of successful counter-attacks out of the city in recent days. These actions push Russian artillery further away and out of range of much of Khariv and closer to the Russian border. This also poses a threat to Russian supply lines leading to Izyum and further south.

The reported loss of the CG of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army has to have had a very negative impact on Russia planning and execution of operations Russian forces around Izyum. They continue to try to press the attack southeast and southwest out of the town but are continually thwarted by Ukrainian forces. Reports of additional units being forwarded to the are but analysts see that there is very little chance they will affect the conflict in the short term. These additional units thought to be reconstituted/reorganized units pulled from the north, already suffering equipment and personnel shortages and with poor morale.

Heavy Russian shelling in Luhansk region in last 24 hours. 12 houses destroyed. Russian forces continued unsuccessful attacks alongside artillery fire and airstrikes on the entire Donetsk-Luhansk frontline and did not make any confirmed advances.

Hopes being raise that Russia will permit civilians to be evacuated from Mariupol today.

Occupying Russian forces are intensifying occupation measures through Mariupol. Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko stated that abandoned homes in the Staryi Krym region of Mariupol are being resettled under DNR-issued permits and that the Kremlin plans to return Mariupol residents who were previously forcibly deported to Russia once Russian forces consolidate control of the city.

Ukraine Red Cross’ office in Dobropillia, a city located in Donetsk region in war-torn eastern Ukraine, was bombed and destroyed Saturday, the organization posted on Twitter, making the eighth Ukraine Red Cross office to be damaged or destroyed since Russia invaded.

No significant ground advances northward.

Crimea Front -
Relatively static on the Kherson area as it appears that Russian forces are engaging in limited combat operations to improve their tactical positions and replenish supplies for future operations believed to be an attempt to capture the administrative borders of Kherson Oblast.

Russian missile hit fertilizer warehouse in Mykolaiv, another damaged the runway at the Odesa airport.

Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian military hit Russian positions at Zmiiny (Snake) island again, destroyed equipment. NOTE - The report says ‘again’. I saw a report claiming that Ukraine destroyed Russian ADA assets on the island but saw no other sources of verification.

Russian troops controlling the city of Kherson say the rouble will be used there starting Sunday.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant reported.

Russian Territory -
Reports from a Russian source says Ukrainian warplane entered Russian airspace in Bryansk province this morning and dropped at least two bombs on the local oil terminal.

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term. With time it is becoming increasingly apparent that the Russian offensive for the Donbas is losing traction and stalling out. There is only very minor success in the southern Khariv front, but at a high price. There is little evidence that Russia has the assets necessary to effect a breakout. The southern portion of the offensive coming out of the separatist held areas is suffering an even worse failure, as attacks northward continue to be repulsed.

Crimean front appears to be attempting a north-northeastward assault, but facing the same stalemate against Ukraine defenses. Forces are also unable to press the attack towards Odesa and are struggling to keep the Ukrainian offensive towards Kherson at bay.
Russian forces are in process of putting together fake ‘referendums’ by the conquered Ukrainan areas to declare independence and join Russia. This may be a face saving attempt to show ‘victory’ for the May 9th shindig.

As more and more western weaponry gets deployed by Ukraine the situation will become more difficult for Russia to achieve the capture of Donbas. This may cause putin to become more desperate.

Watching the situation in Transnistria for developments as well as Ukrainian deep attacks in Crimea targeting supply lines from Russia. Same for Ukrainan attacks in Russian territory opened up by the withdrawal of Russian forces from the north.

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Moldova/Transnistria -

Nothing significant to report today.

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Europe / NATO General -

Inflation rose to its highest level in over four decades in Germany, as the economic fallout from years of lockdown restrictions and the Russian invasion of Ukraine continue to bite the leading economic power of the European Union.
Germany’s statistics agency Destatis announced on Thursday that consumer prices rose by 7.4 per cent in the month of April compared to the same time last year. The inflation rate is the highest level since 1981 in West Germany, when the country was divided by the Berlin Wall.

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Israel -

RUMINT Israeli media reports the Mossad – operating in Iran – yes, you read that correctly, apprehended and interrogated an Iranian national who was leading a plot to kill an Israeli diplomat and a US general, sources have confirmed.????
Rasouli was arrested and questioned in Iran, a rarity as the Mossad regularly operates in conjunction with foreign intelligence services to thwart attacks but almost always from outside the Islamic Republic.”

OBSERVATION - not sure what to make of this so marking a s RUMINT until more information becomes available

The Israeli army imposes a comprehensive closure on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip crossings, starting from Tuesday.

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Iraq -

Three rockets were reportedly fired towards Ain al-Assad base in Iraq in the past hour or so. No injuries reported as of yet. Rockets likely shot by an Iranian backed militia as in the past.

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Armenia/Azerbaijan -

Azerbaijan’s president Aliyev says Ukraine should never ever agree on occupation, rely on its resources and fight back to protect what it has He says Azerbaijan has good relations with Russia but Baku has always supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity, “we aren’t hiding”

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Globalism / Great Reset -

A London-based company has developed a new contactless payment system that involves embedding a microchip into a person’s hand. Tech company Walletmor has developed a new app called Purewrist, which is a digital wallet combined with a microchip that can be installed in your hand. Once the chip is installed, a person can then use the app and chip to make payments to businesses that also use the app. Walletmore’s chip is quite light and is only a bit bigger than a grain of rice and is composed of a microchip and an antenna, which is surrounded by biopolymer.

OBSERVATION - This easily fits into the GGR’s desire for the use of biometrics to track people and purchases. Also raises red flags of biblical proportion.

Samantha Power celebrated the global fertilizer shortage resulting from the Ukraine conflict, claiming it will “hasten transitions” for farmers to use “natural solutions.”
Power, who now serves as the Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), said the fertilizer shortages are actually “in the interest of farmers”, claiming “manure and compost” are more eco-friendly alternatives. “And this may hasten transitions that would have been in the interest of farmers to make eventually anyway. So, never let a crisis go to waste,” she said.

OBSERVATION - Opinions from an individual who really doesn’t know how the food gets to her table - and largely doesn’t care because she is one of the elites.

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Wuhan virus -

A recently published study from Israel has confirmed a strong correlation between a massive increase in emergency cardiovascular events among people under 40 and the beginning of the country’s Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) mass vaccination program.

Anthony Fauci attended yesterday’s White House Correspondents’ Dinner pre-party without a mask. The crowded room would have been called a super-spreader event if there were Republicans there, but since it was mostly leftist politicians and corporate media folks, they didn’t even pretend to social distance.

Microsoft billionaire Bill Gates says the world has not seen the worst of Covid yet.
OBSERVATION - Remember Gates participated in the wuhan gaming session in 2019 that preceded the breakout of the disease a month or so later.
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Economy -

Good news, by April 24, topsoil moisture was rated at surplus in all Midwestern states except Iowa, according to today’s Drought Monitor report of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The bad news, as a result, corn seeding is at least 10 percentage points behind the five-year average planting pace in Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Minnesota, and Missouri.

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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -

Musk engaged ORC in a battle of wits, is chastised for fighting an unarmed opponent. . . . .
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

Reports that the US has used up about 1/3d of its Javelin stockpile and is facing difficulties in restocking.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 66)

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
Continued discussion on putin’s health. If he is going under the knife, I suspect that he will wait untl after May 9th in the event that something bad happens on the table.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- See discussion about Gerasimov below under Ukraine.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying..

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Rumors exploded (no pun intended) over the weekend concerning Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov having been caught and wounded in the Ukraine attack on a CP outside of Izyum. Here’s the best established facts.

1. Ukrainian forces conducted a rocket artillery strike on a Russian command post in Izyum on April 30 that struck after Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov had left.
2. More than 40 high-ranked Russian military officers gathered in the CP and reportedly, up to 20 of them are confirmed killed incl. Gen. Andrey Simonov, a commander of electronic warfare forces of the West district.
3. Two U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential intelligence assessments, confirmed that General Gerasimov had been in eastern Ukraine for the past couple days, but had no information about the attack on the Russian base.
4. A Senior Ukrainian official denied reports that Gerasimov was wounded on the visit, but said a Ukrainian attack on a base in Izium that the general had visited hours earlier killed up to 200 servicemen, including a general.
5. Gerasimov reportedly departed the CP less than an hour before the attack and flew by helicopter to Belgorod, boarded an aircraft and returned to Moscow.
6. Gerasimov was on a visit of the front lines and was not taking on site control of the offensive.

OBSERVATION - The ability of Ukraine to collect time sensitive targetable intelligence and launch a successful attack is mind boggling incredible to this formerly military mind. Even if the US/NATO is the source of the intelligence, the ability of Ukraine to pull the trigger and get ‘er done is just wow.

Combat levels throughout Ukraine lowered slightly overnight, likely representing a Russian pause to rearm and refuel. Russian is trying to avoid the same mistakes it made in the north.

Activity picked up in the Black Sea area around the now infamous Snake Island. Other Russian naval activity noted around Crimea with Russia relying more on sub launched cruse missiles than more vulnerable surface vessels.

The 60 day state of emergency for Belgorod Oblast reflects an increasing threat that Ukraine assets can influence Russian logistical / military operations in areas once considered safe.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.

Russian forces continued to shell the suburbs of Kharkiv City. Ukrainian forces continued successful attacks to push Russian forces away from Kharkiv and towards the Russian border. These attacks are likely drawing forces away that are needed further south to advance the Donbas offensive. Is is also starting to place Russian territory at risk from a ground assault.

Further south, Russian troops continued to focus efforts on completing the seizures of Rubizhne and Popasna with ground assaults supported by artillery, but were unsuccessful. Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian forces made limited advances in the direction of Lyman via Krymky and Oleksandrivka and attempted to advance toward Kurakhove via Olenivka and Novomykhailvka. Russian forces are experiencing relatively more success pushing southwestward in Donetsk Oblast in the Lyman direction. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces mounted an unsuccessful attack against Ozerne, which indicates that Russian forces have likely made limited gains to the south and west of Yampil (which is less than 15 km southeast of Lyman)

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Ukrainian National Guard brigade commander Denys Shlega said Sunday in a televised interview that Russia’s bombardment of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol resumed right after the partial evacuation of civilians. Only 100 people made it on their way to Ukrainian-controlled territory. It is estimated that several hundred civilians remain at the steel plant.

Russian attacks on Ukrainian defensive positions along the pre-February 24 front lines continue to fail to make substantial progress. Repeated Russian failures to capture villages such as Zolote and Vilne suggest that pre-invasion Ukrainian defensive positions are too strong for Russian troops to storm. This is seriously imparting Russian efforts to push northward to join up with forces pushing southward from Izyum - Lyman region.

Crimea Front -
Continued heightened Russian Navy activity in Lake Donuzlav, in northwestern Crimea. Special gunboats and fast landing craft are deployed there. The landing craft were (again) seen running at high speed.

Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian military hit Russian positions at Zmiiny (Snake) island. Two Russian Navy Project 03160 ‘Raptor’ patrol boats were also struck by Bayraktar TB2 UCAVs near Snake Island. Ukraine navy does have TB2s.

Russian troops attempted to advance near Ivanovka-Zahradivka, but failed.

Ukraine security services foiled Russian attempt to destabilize situation in Odesa. 12 suspected saboteurs detained, weapons and ammunition seized. Also 2 person connected to former MP Ilya Kiva detained

New Russian missile strike at the bridge over Dnistrovsky Lyman in Odesa region

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant reported.

Russian Territory -
A 60 day state of emergency on the territory of the Belgorod Region was declared by the Kremlin yesterday.
Overnight, Russian air defense units were targeting unknown aircraft (possible UAVs?) above Belgorod. There was also what appeared to be a fighter jet deploying flairs over Belgorod.
OBSERVATION - Aerial intrusion over Belgorod at this stage is largely psyops, letting the Russians know they are not safe. It also serves to divert Russian focus from Donbas to protecting strategic supply lines that pass through Belgorod.

Explosions in Rylsk area of Kursk region, air defense is active

Railway bridge collapsed between Sudzha and Sosnovy Bor in Kursk region of Russia, Governor blames saboteurs. Explosion reported in Belgorod Russia, with initial reports suggesting it may be a weapons depot. The Governor of the Belgorod Region confirmed that there is a fire in a facility belonging to Russia’s Ministry of Defense. At least two separate fires are visible on social media postings.

Some observers are noting suspicious fires further into Russian, some are dismissing as coincidence. In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire under suspicious conditions.

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term. Russian forces continue to be largely stalled along nearly all of the front with no apparent breakout pending. In spite of being reinforced by elements redeployed from the failed Kyiv campaign, Russian doesn’t really have the mass of forces necessary to capture Donbas and appear to be repeating many of the same errors that plagued them there.

Review of Russian objective for this Phase 2 war effort -
1. Capture of the Donbas region.
2. Establish a land bridge between Separatist controlled regions and Crimea
3. Capture and control all Ukrainan access to the Black Sea
4. Establish a land bridge to Russian controlled Transnistria.
It is apparent that goals 1, 3 and 4 are not happening, while 2 has been largely accomplished.

Some analyasts believe that Russian forces are attempting to set conditions to mount an offensive in the directions of Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih, in the Crimea front region. Such an offensive operation will force the drainage of combat power needed for the Donbas offensive.

More speculation on what role Transnistria based forces will play in this conflict. Some analysts are suspecting that the two poorly manned and equipped motorized rifle battalions (1500-2000 men) will launch some sort of supporting attack to link up with an amphibious operation to attack Odesa from the west while Russia musters an offensive from the east from the Kherson region. This may be why Russian has taken the time to strike the bridge over Dnistrovsky Lyman in Odesa region for a third time. This would impede Ukraine reinforcement against any Russian operation to the east of the bridge, potentially increasing the chances of success. Those Russian forces could swing northward into Transnistria and pivot to the east towards Odesa. One possible Russian goal would be to divert forces away from the Donbas effort.
Audacious in the short term, but likely to fail epically in the longer as Russian forces are already stretched very thin and it hasn’t shown the capability to execute such a complex plan. Still, the situation in area of Ukraine needs to be monitored because something is afoot and the full extent still hasn’t reared its head yet.

Expect more actions against Russian facilities in Russia, not only in Belgorod Oblast but potentially deeper into Russia, as these pin prick attacks are complicating Russian planning for the Ukraine operation.

Finally, continued monitoring of putin’s health and any declarations to be made in conjunction with the May 9 parade/ceremonies.
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Moldova/Transnistria -

According to Ukrainian intelligence sources cited by the UK’s Times newspaper, an invasion of Moldova would help Russia threaten the Ukrainian city of Odesa from the west. They reportedly said Odesa would be an easier target if Moscow controlled Moldova - and the Moldovan army only consisted of a few thousand troops. Tension has already been rising in the pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria, where there’s been a series of unexplained explosions.
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Belarus -

About 80 railway control boxes were burned along key rail lines supporting Russian logistics, near stations and crossings. Belarusian partisans also set on fire the main control station at the Baronivichi train station .

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Poland -

The Polish Government has announced that Large-Scale Military Exercises will be taking place across the Country beginning today involving the Polish Military and multiple NATO Member States, heavy military equipment is expected to be seen on highways and roads around the country.
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Europe / NATO General -

EU remains unable to agree on ending supplies of Russian gas, Germany’s economy minister says. Ministers are due to have emergency talks, but Hungary has made it clear it will block consensus

Denmark summoned Russia’s ambassador after a Russian spy plane violates its airspace.

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Israel -

Jordan has blamed Israel for the violence on the temple mount and Al-Aqsa mosque and for violating the status quo there. And now, it is demanding total control over the Temple Mount. Jordan is also concerned The country is also concerned that Hamas is replacing it as custodian and “gatekeeper” of the Temple Mount.

Jordan reportedly submitted a letter to the Biden administration, demanding the Waqf (Muslim religious guards) be given total control over the Temple Mount. It wants to institute a dress code for non-Muslims, as well as limit visitors to groups no larger than five people. Jordan is also demanding that Israel Police no longer be allowed on the Temple Mount, even if rioters attack Jewish worshippers at the Western Wall or visitors to the site itself.
Its demands also include giving the Waqf the authority to severely restrict non-Muslim visits to the Temple Mount; requiring non-Muslims to apply to visit in writing in advance; and setting restrictive tour routes of no more than 500 feet (150 meters) in each direction for non-Muslim visitors.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said over the weekend that Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler had “Jewish blood,” prompting a furious response from Israel. Israeli Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian Ambassador Over Lavrov’s statement
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Armenia/Azerbaijan -

Unconfirmed Reports today that Azerbaijan has joined Turkey in closing its Airspace to Russian Military Aircraft.
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Wuhan virus -
After months of declining numbers, California has recorded a nearly 30% increase in coronavirus cases over the last week along with smaller rises in hospitalizations, causing some health officials to suspect that the state is headed into a new pandemic wave.

OBSERVATION - No word on lethality of this variant.
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Economy

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its index of national factory activity fell to a reading of 55.4 last month from 57.1 in March.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for 12% of the U.S. economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index rising to 57.6.

OBSERVATION - Near term economic data shows no signs of inflation and associated economic troubles turning anytime soon.

Oil prices fell on Monday as concerns about weak economic growth in China, the world’s top oil importer, outweighed fears of potential supply stress from a potential European Union ban on Russian crude.
Brent crude futures fell 71 cents, or 0.6%, to $106.43 a barrel at 0801 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 70 cents, or 0.6%, to $103.99 a barrel.

OBSERVATION - Oil prices continue to be volatile, don’t expect prices to significantly drop any time soon.

After its latest rate-setting meeting ends Wednesday, the Fed will almost certainly announce that it’s raising its benchmark short-term interest rate by a half-percentage point — the sharpest rate hike since 2000. The Fed will likely carry out another half-point rate hike at its next meeting in June and possibly at the next one after that, in July. Economists foresee still further rate hikes in the months to follow.

OBSERVATION - half point (0.5%) increases have the potential to wreck any ‘easy landing’ of inflation and many continue to warn that is can cause a deep recession or even depression.

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Invasion of Illegals -

On CNN’s “The State of Our Union”, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas told Dana Bash that since Sept 2021, DHS has been preparing to start handling and processing 18,000 illegal aliens per day – 540,000 a month – as soon as CDC Title 42 is lifted.
That comes to 3 million people by the November election. Roughly ten million anonymous people have poured into the country under Joe Biden. We could have 30 million by 2024. That’s the population of Texas.

April reportedly hit new records of intercepted Illegals and ‘got-aways’
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Things exploded last night with the ‘leak’ to Politico of a draft opinion reportedly written by Justice Alito that signals the U.S. Supreme Court is ready to overturn its decision in Roe v. Wade. The result was rapid (some say coordinated with the leak) mobilization of pro-abortion supporters (including LGBT and some Antifa elements) to the front of the Supreme Court. Pro life elements also arrived there. Barricades are up around the Supreme Court building, just minutes after reports from Politico report. There were some limited scuffles between opposing sides.

Vigils/protests are expected to continue and grow through today at the very least.

The disclosure of a draft ruling (98 pages) by the high court is unprecedented. Whoever leaked the alleged draft of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has committed the “original sin for judicial ethics,” said Jonathan Turley, criminal defense attorney and Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University. Turley said the leak represents “one of the greatest breaches of security in the history of the Court.” Turley noted that if Politico indeed obtained a true copy of the drafted opinion, “it is hard not to view this as a malicious act.” Alan Dershowitz has even come out expressing shock and anger on this release. The FBI reportedly begun an investigation.

OBSERVATION - This leak was almost certainly an act of deliberate sabotage.
1. Designed to inflame public emotions and promote pressure on the court.
2. Designed to mobilize democrat grass roots to try to reverse the democrat death spiral headed into the midterms. (this may backfire by mobilizing conservative elements as well), 189 days out.
3. Apply further pressure on congress to overturn the filibuster and general momentum to enlarge and pack the court with liberals.
Never has there been a leak like this from the USSC. The court is a tight operation and the leaker has already been zeroed in on - an aid to Justice Sotomayor - who’s had interactions with Politico in the past. It is apparent that leftists are now willing to destroy the institutional integrity of the USSC to maintain power.

BTW - This is the second leak - the first leak was Justice Briars retirement. Chief Justice Roberts has to come down hard to protect and restore the integrity of the USSC process.

Antifa has started callouts for nationwide protests against the potential over turning Roe v Wade.

Very high possibility of a spike in violence against pro-life leaders and organizations.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
The fillibuster war has suddenly been tossed onto the front burner.

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China -
US warns China it will be subject to sanctions if it sends weapons to Russia.
China, with over $3.2 trillion in international reserves, is working to reconfigure its asset portfolio to protect it from potential future U.S. sanctions. Chinese government officials met with bankers in an emergency meeting last week to discuss how the state might protect its assets should it face the same penalties Russia is facing over its invasion of Ukraine. According to the Financial Times, China’s central bank and finance ministry officials met with dozens of representatives of foreign and domestic banks, including financial giant HSBC. (FO)

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 69)

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

All eyes on Moscow and the May 9th activities. The consensus it that putin will declare war against Ukraine - escalating it from a ‘special military operation’. This will also include a broad mobilization and conscription of the population. May 7th may be more important to Putin than the 9th. According to US intel officials- no specifics provided.

U.S. officials have confirmed that General Gerasimov ( chief of the general staff of the Russian military) did visit the front-lines in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian officials learned of the visit and launched a strike on one position that he visited, but it was too late (NYT).

A pro-Russian cyber group called Killnet targeted Romanian government websites and is considering other targets. A widespread distributed denial of service attack shut down Romanian government websites, including the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Romania’s tax collection agency, and the Romanian Gendarmerie.

Logistics -
- Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost 600 tanks since it began its invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Russian daily tank loss rate is now at the highest level of the war.

Economic Impacts -
- Finland has terminated a contract with Russia’s Rosatom to construct a third nuclear power plant . The deal is worth $7.8 billion

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying.

RUMINT -
The Ukrainian government is claiming that they disrupted a Russian false flag operation to shoot down a passenger plane over Russia or Belarus using an illicitly-acquired US Stinger MANPADS

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
A senior US defense official describes the Russian offensive in Eastern Ukraine as “anemic”, “Russia moves into an area in the Donbas region, claims victory, then withdraws.” Other observers have noted a definite slow down in the tempo of Russian attacks. Artillery attacks did continue, but at lower levels as well.

It is being noted that Ukraine has become increasingly proficient in downing Russian drones, using EW (jamming) methods.

Ukraine’s ombudswoman for human rights said Ukrainians came back with sepsis, severe wounds, amputated limbs, and toes due to frostbite. Russia is torturing Ukrainians at “filtration camps” after essentially kidnapping people by the thousands under the guise of humanitarian evacuations.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.

Russian army shelled Hlukhiv border community in Sumy region with mortars

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.

Russian troops shelled central Kharkiv, Pavlove Pole, Zolochiv , and Oleksiivka

Ukraine offensive in the area of Kharkiv moves forward with success as Ukraine’s military have pushed the Russian military about 40 km back from Kharkiv according to a Senior US Defense Official. This places Ukraine artillery within range of Russia’s main supply routes to Izyum.

On the southern end of this front, Russian troops continued to focus on completing the seizure of Rubizhne and Popasna. Russian BTGs are reportedly being moved forward in these areas to facilitate operations and enable future operations to the southwest. The Ukrainian artillery strike on the Russian command post in Izyum appears to have disrupted Russian attacks staging from Izyum and likely those farther south.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian troops launched another ground assault attempt at Azovstal in Mariupol after hours of aerial bombardment. Only a handful of civilians have been allowed by Russia to evacuate the city and specifically, the Azovstal bunkers. No successful attacks launched northward to join those attack axis coming south from the Izyum region.

Crimea Front -
Generally, things have been relatively static in this area. Ukraine intelligence assess that Russians are trying to prevent Ukraine from capturing Kherson while at the same time trying to prepare to resume offensives toward Odesa and towards Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhia.

Reports that Ukrainian military hit Russian positions at Zmiiny (Snake) island using Bayraktar TB2 UCAVs. These TB 2 attacks reportedly have destroyed all the ADA and comms elements placed on the island by Russia and reportedly killed up to 44 Russian soldiers manning the equipment.
Two Russian Navy Project 03160 ‘Raptor’ patrol boats were also struck by Bayraktar TB2 UCAVs near Snake Island (others report that they were reconnoitered the Danube River delta ) and likely sunk.

OBSERVATION - These TB2 are becoming the gold standard. From Libya, to Syria to Azerbaijan/Armenia they have been the bane of Russia and Russian backed forces.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant reported.

Russian Territory -
In Belgorod, Russia sirens and car alarms were going off after an explosions. RIA Novosti reports a loud “clap” in central Belgorod (a Russian euphemism for an explosion), similar to the sound of an explosion of medium strength. Later ADA missile launches were noted over Tavrovo and Nikolske, Belgorod

NOTICE - Many suspicious fires being reported across greater Russia. May or may not are linked to the Ukraine war but I’m listing them here for situation awareness-
- NASA’s FIRMS recently detected a large fire at a warehouse in the Bogorodskoye district of Moscow. The fire is reported to cover an area of 34,000 square meters, or 8.5 acres. The facility is reportedly leased by the “Prosveshchenie” publishing house (the company that makes most of Russia’s school textbooks) is very much on fire right now. Roughly 323k square feet of books.
- Smoke has been reported and photographed over Perm ammunition factory today. Perm is a traditional (over 200 years history) Russian defense industry stronghold, second only to Tula. The affected factory produces artillery ammunition, incl. MLRS rockets (but no more). The City of Perm is situated on the banks of the Kama River in the Ural Mountains a thousand miles east of Moscow.

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term. Russian forces continue to be largely stalled along nearly all of the front with no apparent breakout pending. US officials call it ‘anemic’.

Russian efforts in the east appear to have been disrupted by the missile strike in Izyum in combination with Ukrane’s dynamic mobile defense is largely stalled, after several weeks of this new ‘offensive’. Coordination between the different commands continue to be very poor and even the application of more strategic operations, such air/sea launched cruse missiles, appear to be disjointed and poorly sustained. I don’t expect them to get their act together in the near term.

Ukraine offensive pushing Russian forces away from Khariv is setting the stage for more significant interdiction of Russian supplies to the Izyum region and further threaten a cross border strike(s) towards Belgorod. Russia is being forced to deal with this offensive and it is bleeding off forces necessary for the northern portion of the Donbas offensive.

I agree with numerous other analysts/observers - Russia doesn’t have the forces necessary to capture the rest of the Donbas. It appears that Russia is trying to mitigate this by preparing to assimilate terrain captured into Russia proper - a declaration likely on May 9th.

Transnistria soap opera continues with a lot of conflicting information. There is a degree of credibility from Ukrainian intelligence based on their accurate prognostications to date that Russia is trying to figure out how to open a new front to permit operations against Odesa to proceed. Very high gamble operation.
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Moldova/Transnistria -

Ukrainian intelligence reports activity at the Tiraspol airfield. Sources say that Russia plans to land Il-76 transport aircrafts and helicopters in Transnistria flying from the occupied Crimea. At the same time in Chisinau, Russia is planning to organize riots and protests. However, according to a senior U.S. defense official the U.S. has NO indications that Russia is planning an imminent invasion of Moldova

OBSERVATION - For Russia to accomplish this airlift, it would be forced to transit over Ukraine territory loaded with ADA assets. The Odessa region is also heavily covered by US/NATO airborne intelligence collectors which may likely provide early warning and vectors to the incoming aircraft. It has the potential to turn into a turkey shoot.

Ukraine border checkpoint with Transnistria is been blocked now by large concrete blocks. Basically closed.

The Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is urging its Citizens to leave the Moldovan Breakaway Region of Transnistria as soon as possible and to avoid all unnecessary travel to Moldova.

PROPAGANDA / RED FLAG ALERT - Russian media outlets claim that another attack was foiled in Transnistria, Moldova, claiming that a drone with explosives, which would have been used to target radio and TV center, was neutralized.

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Europe / NATO General -

Emmanuel Macron has a call scheduled today with Putin. It will be the first call between the two since March 29th. Source: Elysée.

NATO begins its largest Special Operations Forces exercise “to date.” Includes Finland, Sweden, Georgia. Trojan Footprint 22 kicks off today with over 3,300 participants from 30 nations. This is the largest SOF exercise to date. This exercise is regularly scheduled but takes greater significance due to the Ukraine war.
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Israel -

Russian Foreign Ministry says that Israel “supports the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv” and that Lapid saying ““The Jews did not murder themselves in the Holocaust” is “anti-historical.” The Russian foreign minister accused Israel on Tuesday of supporting neo-Nazis in Ukraine, Israeli FM Yair Lapid demands an apology from Lavrov over his comments about Jews.
OBSERVATION - Israel has been trying to remain neutral in respects to the Ukraine war, this action by Russia may push it to support Ukraine.
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Iran -

Biden Admin Won’t Block $10 Billion for Russian Nuclear Work in Iran, Blinken Says - Even as Russia wages war crimes, Biden admin will let it cash in to build up Iran’s nuclear sites
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Syria -
Turkey is drafting plans to return one million Syrian refugees to northern Syria, Erdogan said, under plans to build housing and provide services in the Northern Syria

OBSERVATION - These refugees have been an economic and political drain of Turkey.

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Turkey -
See Syria above

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Black Swans -

France has culled a record 16 million chickens, ducks and other poultry since November 2021 in one of the most severe bird flu outbreaks in years. In 2021, the country saw nearly 500 outbreaks and culled 3.5 million animals, mostly ducks.
OBSERVATION - Very similar if not the same bird flu that is decimating US flocks.

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

The U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) purchased access to a vast trove of data collected from the phones of millions of Americans, to monitor overall compliance with COVID-19 lockdown orders throughout the country. While the CDC described its initial request for phone data as a means of tracking lockdown compliance, the agency could use this type of data for expanded purposes in the future.

OBSERVATION - This exposes the desire to monitor individuals for control purposes. Use of data like this will only get worse and controlling the next time around.

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Wuhan virus -

Published last week in the Nature journal Scientific Reports, COVID-19 vaccination was “significantly associated” with a 25% jump in emergency medical services (EMS) for heart problems in 16-39 year-olds in Israel, whose vaccination rate is among the world’s highest, according to a peer-reviewed study by MIT researchers.

OBSERVATION - More and more studies coming out documenting the dangers of the jab.

U.S. health officials on Tuesday restated their recommendation that Americans wear masks on planes, trains and buses, despite a court ruling last month that struck down a national mask mandate on public transportation.
NOTE - This is a recommendation , not a mandate. Control, not disease.

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Economy

The Fed’s monetary policy panel is expected to announce a 0.5 percentage point rate hike today, twice the size of a typical interest rate increase, as the bank rushes to get in front of rising prices. Abundant commentary concerning that oncoming trainwreck of a deep recession as a result of the aggressive rate increases.

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CW2/Domestic violence -

leftists called for violence against SCOTUS, its justices, and the nation’s political system. Mainstream liberals have also taken to encouraging insurrections to intimidate the Supreme Court justices. Additional barricades are being set up around the Supreme Court. Capitol Police officers deployed yesterday and were using dump trucks to block off the road in front of the Supreme Court. Security set up at the capitol building as well.
Protests at the Supreme Court were loud but relatively peaceful.

However, it was not so elsewhere.

Ian Millhiser, a senior correspondent at Vox, was one of the first to use incendiary language to describe the leaked ruling. “Seriously, shout out to whoever the hero was within the Supreme Court who said ‘REDACTED it! Let’s burn this place down,’” he tweeted shortly after the leak surfaced.
Other blue checkmarks on Twitter called for the nation, its institutions, and the highest court in the land to literally and figuratively burn to the ground.

Antifa et al has responded to these calls. -
- Antifa in Portland, as elsewhere, are using Twitter to organize rioting in response to the Supreme Court draft opinion on Roe v. Wade.

- Seattle socialist city council member Kshama Sawant has announced an emergency direct action to protest the Supreme Court, smearing it as “right-wing.” Antifa announced they’re coming to support the event.

- Antifa in Salem, Ore. has announced riot plans for Tuesday, May 3 at 6 pm PT at the Riverfront Park.

- The National Lawyers Guild, a far-left legal group that provides help to violent far-left extremists, has put together a Seattle hotline number for those who face legal criminal issues ahead of anticipated rioting.

Results overnight saw initial rioting centered mostly in the Antifa strongholds in the west. Antifa destroyed property & started fires in Portland last night. Seattle tried to reclaim the CHAZ. Antifa rioters also threatened police at the pro-abortion direct action in Los Angeles last night.

Mobilization of Antifa and related leftist forces are continuing. Some accounts encouraged setting fires to churches, which were characterized as meeting places of conservatives, nationalists, and fascists.

Observers of Antifa are noting that popular social media accounts active in the summer two years ago are active now — some of them reactivating after many months of inactivity. Activity involves sharing of best practices on organizing and joining affinity groups, as well as general advice for direct action demonstrations, tactics for overcoming a police presence, providing first aid, practicing digital and physical security, and overall movement strategy.

OBSERVATION - BLUF Unrest is anticipated to increase towards the weekend as various Antifa cells get mobilized for action. Draft protests/riots being planned for over a dozen cities so far, trying to get a list together - but suffice is to say, they are in the places commonly rioted in 2020 - Antifa urban strongholds.

I’ve noted in earlier posts that I’ve seen trend changes towards more violent actions by Antifa, now it appears they have found a national level cause to stir the mob. It is still early to tell how much traction this specific issue will generate, but I think it is pretty clear, the socialist leftists are going to pull out all the stops to prevent a red tsunami this fall. Antifa has not been sleeping, they have been honing their tactics since 2020, training and equipping up core elements. Videos and images on social media show a much more well equipped “bloc” uniforms incorporating body armor among others things - not the adhoc black apparel of a few years ago. Finally, they have trained many on how to shoot. Doesn’t mean they have much proficiency, but they at least know how to point a weapon at a target and they are displaying a greater willingness to incorporate firearms into their protests.
BTW - I’’ working on developing more raw OSINT sources covering Antifa and hopefully they will bear fruit to get a better heads up on their plans and operations.

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POLITICAL FRONT -

Democrat attempts to repeal the filibuster are crashing into the same rock wall as previous actions have.

General observation of Leftist response to the USSC leak (apart from Antifa and rabid leftist responses). Initial protests seemed to be a bit anemic and apart from those at the USSC, have been on the smaller side. Pro-aborts have tried to leverage the emotional side of the argument, but I think things are still tempered by negative economic impacts. Congressional action is tied up because democrats don’t have the votes in the senate to drive any legislation past a filibuster.

Any Antifa rioting is not expected to help the pro-abort cause as much of the country is still tired from the last round. Called for violence has already been tagged as terror to influence the court and condemned broadly - to the chagrin of a minority of very vocal group of celebrities, pundints and politicians.

The leak and pressure attempted to be placed on the USSC by leftists is assessed that it will be unsuccessful in swaying the majority of the court to change their vote. In many ways is is assessed that it will galvanize their decision and may even sway Roberts more to the right as the release is a direct affront to his leadership as Chief Justice.
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China -
China’s aircraft carrier “Liaoning,” as well as seven other vessels, are reportedly performing a naval expedition in close proximity to Nagasaki, Japan, and the U.S. Navy base at Sasebo, according to a Tuesday report from China’s Observer News. The total tonnage for this iteration of the Liaoning’s aircraft carrier group is reportedly the largest formation ever assembled in the history of the People’s Liberation Army Navy, according to an opinion piece from China’s Tencent News translated by the DCNF.
The U.S. Naval Institute fleet tracker placed both the USS Abraham Lincoln, as well as the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier in the waters near Sasebo on May 2.

OBSERVATION - This is an in your face exercise to both US and Japan.

Manufacturing activity in China dropped to its lowest level in two years, signs of economic pain unheard of in a country renowned for year-on-year 5%+ growth numbers. The official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was at 47.4 in April, the 50 point mark separating growth from contraction. Some view this largely due to the draconian lockdowns in key manufacturing regions. Manufacturers are struggling to keep some of their China operations going as extended and widening Covid-19 lockdowns choke off supplies and clog up truck routes and ports, adding more pressure on the stretched global supply chain.

On top of the ongoing lockdowns, Chinese government authorities have locked down another major city in its pursuit of its zero-COVID policies. The northern port city of Qinhuangdao in Hebei province is the latest lockdown victim. The city is a major transshipment point for coal and metal ore imports destined for China’s steel industry.

OBSERVATIONS - Ripples of the disruption are just starting to hit hard. It took months, no thanks to brandon, for the past backlog to even get marginally cleared out. Of course this will come to a head in the next few months, just in time for midterms.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

Japan State Minister of Defense Makoto Oniki told reporters that North Korean conducted a missile launch that flew 500 km, hitting a max height of 800 km. Total flight time was approximately 20 minute. Asked if Japan had assessed the missile was an IRBM or ICBM, he said the ministry was continuing to analyze the test. The missile was launched from Pyongyang area, NK News learned. This suggests it was fired from Sunan Int’l Airport.

__________________________________

Japan -

See N/S Korea above

See China above.
____________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 70)

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
As preparations continue for May 9th, speculation continues about any pronouncements to be made by putin.

Economic Impacts -
- Russia’s last dollar bond payments cleared international processing the day before the sanctions-stricken country would be declared in default.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The past 24 hours saw some of the most extensive cruse/ballistic missile strikes across the country since the start of the war. Multiple cruise missile strikes reported in multiple Ukrainian cities including Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro and Lviv. Strikes on Lviv damaged two power stations. The head of Ukrainian Railways says the Russian military bombed six train stations in central and western Ukraine today. Damage to the nation’s rail infrastructure is still unknown. For the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a missile strike has hit Transcarpathia, Ukraine (Zakarpattia Oblast). Transcarpathia borders Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary, representing a possible warning to Romania and Hungary.

In the back and forth battles in southeastern Ukraine, there is evidence that Russia made some important gains in the Yarapil region. Russian did very little except shoot artillery elsewhere

Ukraine is exploiting successes east of Khariv potentially threatening Russian supply lines.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.

Ukrainian attacks eastward out of Kharkiv have developed into a large-scale counteroffensive that has the potential to unhinge Russian positions to the northeast. A US senior defense official reported that Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces about 40 km east on May 2, and social media reports corroborate that report by showing Ukrainian forces liberating the settlement of Staryi Saltiv. Ukrainian recapture of Staryi Saltiv, makes Russian positions west of the Donets river untenable. Russian forces also reportedly retreated in the direction of Volchansk near the Russian state border. Ukrainian forces have also reportedly captured the village of Molodova, Kharkiv Oblast. About 40km from the city of Kharkiv.

Ukrainian success has also given them additional freedom of maneuver to the extent that the offensive could be carried across the border into Russia as well as bringing Russia logistical lines under Ukrainan artillery fire.

Videos of yesterday’s action showed Ukrainian military destroying a Russian supply convoy near Vesele village in Kharkiv region. The before artillery strike video of the Russian convoy showed them parked in an orchard of some kind, parked the tightly bumper to bumper. Post strike aerial review shows that as many as 38 supply vehicles were destroyed or damaged. This is evidence that Russia has failed to apply the lessons they should have learned in the failed northern Ukraine fight.

Russians tried to push from Izyum towards Barvinkove with no success. Restoration of command and control are still chaotic following the rocket/missile strike on a major CP last week. Advances out of Izyum continue to be largely road bound, making maneuver and resupply complicated. Russia has committed a considerable force to the Izyum effort with elements of the Airborne Forces (VDV), 1st Tank Army, 20th, 29th, 35th, and 36th Combined Arms Armies, and 68th Army Corps being present. It is assessed that these units have been substantially attrited and not anywhere near full strength. High likelihood that many units are ad hoc and severely understrength.

Further south, it appears that Russian troops have taken control of Yampil and are at the outskirts of Lyman. Heavy concentration of Russian artillery & thermobaric fire (TOS-1A) targeting Lyman & Yampil in the past 24 hours. Some of the artillery fire has crossed the Siverskyi Donets River in the vicinity of a bridge between Ozerne & Kryva Luka.
The Siverskyi Donets River and its dependent forests are the only major natural features/obstacles in the immediate region. Successful crossings at Yampil or Ozerne would bring Kramatorsk under threat while also enveloping Lysychansik & Severodonetsk.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian forces on Tuesday began storming the sprawling steel plant serving as the last holdout for Ukrainian fighters in the besieged port city of Mariupol, Ukrainian officials said.
Russian also allowing only very limited numbers of civilians evacuate the steel plant and adjacent areas.

Russian forces continue to set conditions for the administrative occupation of Mariupol. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that private enterprises in Rostov, Russia, received orders to produce official seals and stamps for public institutions in Mariupol that reportedly contain the inscription: “Russia, the Republic of Donbas, Mariupol, the military-civilian administration.”

Attacks northward towards Dnipro and fingers of Russian advance south of Izyum remain at a stand still.

Crimea Front -
Situation remains relatively static. Limited Russian probing attacks noted in in Zaporizhia Oblast. Most activity consisted Russian shelling of Ukraine positions.

Ukraine forces continued to consolidate positions west of Kherson in preparations to resume assaults to recapture the city. Ukraine claims to have destroyed another Russian command located on the administrative border of the Mykolaiv and Kherson regions. No word on any death of senior staff.

Russian coastal defense complexes fired Oniks anti-ship cruise missiles at land targets as part of yesterday’s missile barrage across Ukraine. The use of the Oniks anti-ship missile in a ground-attack role may suggest that Russian forces are experiencing shortages of the other types of long-range precision-guided munitions.

Russian Navy landing ships still concentrated at Novorossiysk, with surface combatants hugging the area around other Crimean ports. No evidence from this activity of any pending amphibious operation.

Western Ukraine -
Missile and rocket attacks truck logistical and infrastructure targets throughout the region. Kviv lost power in some areas of the town when two substations were hit by missiles/

Russian Territory -
Explosions heard over the Western Russian City of Belgorod tonight setting off car alarms. Observers posting on social media indicated that the sound were like sonic booms but they couldn’t discern if they were from Ukrainan or Russian aircraft.

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term. Russian forces continue to be largely stalled along nearly all of the front with no apparent breakout pending. Russian forces have a potential of gaining in the Lyman & Yampil area but face a challenging river crossing that will narrow the Russian advance making them susceptible to Ukraine fire.

Russian missile fire has temporally affected resupply efforts from EU/NATO forces. However, it seems that Russian BDA and retargeting loops are very slow, giving Ukraine time to repair and reposition arms and munitions. If they are to effectively interdict resupply, they are going to have to be able to target and strike faster.

Ukraine will continue to exploit success in their offensive on the eastern side of Khariv. This offensive likely has tied up Russian units needed to pursue the offensive further to the south. The further east Ukraine is able to press, the more exposed Russian logistical lines become. I don’t expect any significant assault into Russian territory until Ukrainian forces have removed Russian forces in Khariv Oblast.

Now 70 days into this Russian dumpster fire and Russia is in no better position than they were at the start. Captured territory is easily half what they initially succeeded in gaining in the first couple weeks of the war.
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Moldova/Transnistria -

Russia is preparing to evacuate the families of Russian officers from Transnistria, according to a report by a report by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

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Belarus -

Ministry of Defense of Belarus announced a “sudden check” of the reaction forces began in the country’s Armed Forces breaking via RIA Novosti. Military units and subunits will have to work out the issues of putting on alert, marching to designated areas and performing combat training tasks,” via Ministry of Defense on Telegram

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Europe / NATO General -

European Council pledges to increase military support for Moldova

US air force has deployed six F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets to Borcea air base in southeastern Romania

Allied Joint Force Command says a NATO Response Force has been activated, and NATO has created a new battle group in Romania.
OBSERVATION - The importance of Romania has increased because of the unrest developing in Moldova/Transnistria.
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Israel -

Israel is putting together defensive military aid for Ukraine after Lavrov’s insulting remarks about Jews. It appears to be largely personnel protective equipment (helmets, body armor etc)

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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

The Taliban government of Afghanistan is under attack by disaffected factions under the banner of the Islamic State Khorasan also known as ISKP or ISIS-K. The Taliban’s eight-month rule has devolved into instability and a non-functioning economy. The country currently sits on the brink of a massive famine. This has caused ISIS support to grow as the only viable alternative to the Taliban.

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Wuhan virus -

Secretary of State Antony Blinken has contracted COVID-19 but “is experiencing only mild symptoms,” his team announced following the results of a test Wednesday afternoon. Blinken has been vaccinated and received a booster shot. He tested positive for COVID-19 after White House Correspondents Dinner.
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Economy

Oil rallied as supply concerns took center stage with the EU threatening to ban Russian supplies this year and U.S. regional fuel inventories dropping to record lows. Futures in New York climbed more than 5% to settle at $107.81 on Wednesday, while Brent closed above $110 for the first time since mid-April. The European Union said it plans to ban Russian crude and refined by the end of this year.

Weekly petroleum data from Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories show East Coast distillate inventories are at their lowest ever, dropping to just 22.4 million barrels. Total U.S. distillate inventories have sunk to levels not seen since the last financial crisis.
NOTE - Here in my corner of the American Redoubt Diesel prices jumped 20 cent/gallon overnight, Prices are more than double what I paid less than two years ago.

Natural gas prices in the U.S. continue to rally Wednesday, with futures soaring past $8 for gains of over 5% this morning, as inventory concerns mount ahead of a summer that promises high demand. In the U.S., natural gas prices hit $3.347, for a 5.29% rally as of 9:36 a.m. EST.
In the previous session, U.S. natural gas hit a 14-year high, jumping more than 9%, before pulling back to close at just under $8.
U.S. gas inventories are now an estimated 17% below normal for this time of year as exports hit new records and producers hold back from new production.

OBSERVATION - In some ways fortunate this is happening post winter. In some ways very bad as summer heats up and demand from gas fired electrical plants ramp up. Not too much a problem here in the Redoubt, but as a precaution I’ve double my stockpile of firewood already in anticipation of increased prices resulting from potential wood cutting closures due to fire concerns and increasing gasoline costs.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point. Along with the move higher in rates, the central bank indicated it will begin reducing asset holdings on its $9 trillion balance sheet. The Fed had been buying bonds to keep interest rates low and money flowing through the economy, but the surge in prices has necessitated a dramatic rethink in monetary policy.

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Invasion of Illegals -

Preliminary data obtained by The Washington Post’s Nick Miroff shows that U.S. Customs and Border Protection made approximately 234,000 arrests of illegal border-crossers in April. That’s up nearly 13,000 from the 221,303 southwest border apprehensions recorded in March, marking back-to-back record-breaking months. Prior to March, the last time southwest border arrests surpassed 220,000 was March of 2000.

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CW2/Domestic violence -

Left-wing activist groups are planning to send protesters to the homes of conservative Supreme Court justices following a leak indicating the court may soon overturn Roe v. Wade.
The activists are organizing under the moniker “Ruth Sent Us” and have published the supposed home addresses of Justices Amy Coney Barrett, John Roberts, Samuel Alito, Brett Kavanaugh, Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch.
“Our 6-3 extremist Supreme Court routinely issues rulings that hurt women, racial minorities, LGBTQ+ and immigrant rights,” the group’s website reads. “We must rise up to force accountability using a diversity of tactics.”

Workers erected a large fence around the U.S. Supreme Court building late Wednesday night, two days after Politico published a leaked draft opinion striking down the abortion precedent Roe v. Wade (1973).

Harvard Law Professor Emeritus Alan Dershowitz says he fears that the very people who call the January 6, 2021 assault on the U.S. Capitol an ‘insurrection” will now call for “a comparable reaction to the Supreme Court,” as a result of the leak of a draft majority opinion signaling the issue of abortion will be turned over to the states.

USSC OBSERVATIONS - A great deal of growl from the left and great efforts to inflame public passions have generated some near term threats of violence. However i think that a lot of this will be dampened as inflation and shortages (along with other economic issues) continue to press home. Pro-life advocates correctly point out that reversing Roe will not outlaw abortion but refer the actions back to the states.
Antifa will have a lot of action in this near term, but they are missing a major element present in 2020 - BLM. The BLM riots feed upon a group already prone to mass violence and expanded the ‘peaceful’ day protests into night time riots. I don’t see the scope of that Proabort/Antifa relationship developing in the same manner.

There is a greater risk of more focused violence against USSC Justices - see home protests above. Finally, even rabid leftists are getting a wake up as the counter narrative of having their own “Jan 6” event comes around to confront them.

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas tried again Wednesday to clarify the purpose of the newly created Disinformation Governance Board while testifying before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.
‘’What this working group seeks to do is actually develop guidelines, standards, guardrails to ensure that the work that has been ongoing for nearly 10 years does not infringe on people’s free speech rights, rights of privacy, civil rights and civil liberties,’’ The Hill reported that Mayorkas told lawmakers in the hearing.
Calling the board, directed by author and researcher Nina Jankowicz, an ‘’internal working group,’’ the agency said that it plans to be transparent and issue quarterly reports to Congress and the related oversight committees.
In a televised interview with CNN on Sunday, Mayorkas said the board has ‘’no operational authority or capability’’ and would not be used to collect information from U.S. citizens or attempt to censor them.

OBSERVATION - Mayorkas, DHS and biden caught with their pants down on this ‘disinformation’ board. They cant provide a cohesive mission statement and scope of operations under questioning. And even the leftist media is seeing that.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments

RUMINT that Maryland ANG A-10Cs currently At Gander, Canada are being deploying To Latvia Via Spangdahlem Air Base.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

Washington and Seoul will kick off two weeks of joint air force drills next Monday, informed sources told NK News.

North Korea typically criticizes these exercises as provocations and the “root cause” of tensions on the peninsula.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 71)

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
According to NYT, the US has provided intelligence that has helped Ukrainians target and kill many of the Russian generals who have died in action in the Ukraine war. “The United States provides battlefield intelligence to help the Ukrainians defend their country,” NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson told AFP. “We do not provide intelligence with the intent to kill Russian generals.”

OBSERVATION - Expressed claims either covertly to NYT or openly are damaging to the intelligence support efforts overall. It alerts the Russias to methods of collection and gives them a chance to close those methods off to US exploitation. Very stupid move by who ever passed the word to the NYT.

Russia has dismissed speculation that it will declare all-out war in Ukraine in the coming days as “nonsense”. Moscow has up until now denied it is at war, instead referring to the invasion as a “special military operation”.
But Western officials have speculated that President Vladimir Putin could use the 9 May Victory Parade to announce an escalation of military action. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, however, said there was no truth to the rumours “at all”.

Logistics -
- Just days after touting the first tactical deployment of its new T90 tank, one was destroyed by Ukrainan forces.

Russian Personnel Issues -
As at 5 May update of Russian senior officer losses
- 1 Admiral, 21 Generals and 150 FSB officers arrested;
- 11 Generals KIA;
- 20 Colonels KIA;
- 38 Lt Colonels KIA (+1); &
- 6 Navy Captains

Economic Impacts -
- In March, which was the first full calendar month after Russia invaded Ukraine, U.S. imports of Russian goods increased, according to newly released data from the Census Bureau.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian Missiles Strikes occurred across all of Ukraine for the second day in a row. This points to a shift in Russian military strategy in that mass targeting of infrastructure - including rail and energy - is something that hasn’t been seen since February. A senior US defense official reported that Russian aircraft conducted 200 to 300 airstrikes largely targeting transportation infrastructure in the last 24 hours So far, the new campaign of infrastructure targeting has been unable to interdict Western aid shipments to Ukraine.

Russia attempting to hit critical infrastructure in western Ukraine to try to disrupt efforts by Ukrainians to replenish and reinforce, says Pentagon Pres Sec. “They are not good at precision strikes.

“If the US and NATO are really interested in resolving the Ukraine crisis, then first of all, they should wake up and stop supplying the Kyiv regime with arms and ammunition,” Sergey Lavrov had said. On Wednesday Russia’s Defense Minister has repeated the warning that the military will now actively target for destruction any inbound weapons shipments identified in Ukraine:
“The United States and its NATO allies continue to pump weapons into Ukraine. I can confirm that any transport from the North Atlantic alliance that arrives in the country with weapons or materiel for the Ukrainian armed forces will be considered by us as a legitimate target for destruction,” Shoigu said according to state sources.

After seeing a degree of minor success on the ground in eastern Ukraine, Russian advances are struggling once again.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.

Ukrainan forces continue to press their offensive to the west of Khariv while Russian continues air and artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv City and surrounding settlements

In the southern sector of this front, Ukraine’s resistance against Russian troops in the northern area of the Donbas has “stalled” the advance. This sector runs southeast from Izyum towards Rubizhnes and Popasna. See map created by ISW for details below.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FR7jT1VWUAEM6PZ?format=jpg&name=large

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Violent assault and shelling continues at Azovstal. Yesterday, Russian troops actually tried to enter the facility and were driven back. Videos from Russia show massive explosions from bombs striking the facility.

Russia’s assessed to have had 12 battalion tactical groups near Mariupol, the majority of which have left the city and are mostly being refitted as they move toward Donbas according to senior U.S. defense official. Unknown how many elements are remaining to effectively keep the Ukraine forces in Azovstal contained. A US estimate places the stay behind force at about 2 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) ”cobbled together” from various damaged units and unspecified Chechen units, amounting to about 2,000 personnel.

Crimea Front -
Intense fighting overnight was reported in the outskirts of Kherson.

“Due to the successful actions of Ukrainian defenders, the enemy lost control over several settlements on the border of Mykolayiv and Kherson regions.”
–General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This claim is still pending verification, but Ukraine has been waging an offensive campaign pressing in on Kherson.

Russian forces are still attempting to press towards the Zaporizhia and Kryvyi Rih areas where it can gain access to road networks running to the northeast towards the Khariv area.

Western Ukraine -

Continued missile strikes against rail roads and electrical facilities.

Russian Territory -
Governor of Belgorod region reports shelling in Nekhoteevka and Zhuravlevka villages near the border of Ukraine

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term.
The Russian missile onslaught appears to be tapering off. The effectiveness of the strikes has been generally assessed as minimal. Russia’s failure to establish air superiority over over the Ukraine is forcing them to launch missiles - from Russian territory or the Black Sea - to avoid having their aircraft targeted by surface to air assets as well as Ukraine fighter jets has forced Russian to use slower intelligence assets to collect data for BDA and follow on strikes. By the time they launch a follow up strike, the target is no longer valid.

The effort to capture the Donbas shows no indicators of having a break out any time soon. Besides aggressive and flexible Ukraine defenses, most of the Russian advances are now encountering a significant river crossing and more restrictive terrain. Russian advances are continue to suffer significant losses. One of the more notable was the first combat loss of their new T90 tank series, just days after being presented to the public.

Westward attacks / amphibious operations toward Odesa are still unlikely in the near and long term. Ukraine’s counter offensive towards Kherson has given it substantial defendable terrain to stop any westward push in that region. Russia faces an increasingly hardened Ukraine anti-ship defensive network and ground defenses that will require a larger force structure than currently exists in the Black Sea.

Some analysts see the recent military drill in Belarus and activities in Transnistria as attempts to freeze Ukraine forces in place and prevent them from being deployed to the Donbas defense. It is unlikely that either will used their military in the near term to invade into Ukraine.

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Moldova/Transnistria -

Nothing significant to report
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Belarus -

In an interview with The Associated Press on Thursday, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko said he hadn’t expected the Russian offensive to “drag on this way.” “But I am not immersed in this problem enough to say whether it goes according to plan, like the Russians say, or like I feel it,” the authoritarian leader said. He added it would be “unacceptable” to use nuclear weapons, but he couldn’t say if Russia has such plans.

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Europe / NATO General -

The head of the European Union proposed eliminating Russian oil imports by the end of the year as part of a new round of sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen made the proposal in a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday.

Sweden confirms that it has U.S. security assurances if it applies for NATO membership

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Israel -

Minister of Jerusalem Affairs: Turning Al-Aqsa Mosque into a military barracks and attacking worshipers undermined the status quo

Fresh clashes broke out Thursday between Palestinians and Israeli police at the Temple Mount after the flashpoint Jerusalem holy site was reopened to Jewish visitors amid threats by the Gaza-ruling Hamas.

Hamas has issued a statement warning that the Israeli authority’s approval of Jews visiting the grounds of Al-Aqsa Mosque beginning Thursday will drag the region into an escalation. As it did during Ramdan, Hamas calls on people to mobilize in defense of its “identity”

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Turkey -

Consumer prices in Turkey soared nearly 70% in April from a year ago, hitting a two-decade high, official figures show.
OBSERVATION - While impacting Turkey, the same inflationary pressures are pushing globally - including the US.
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Colombia -

Colombia’s Interior Ministry said it would prioritize security measures in historically violent regions to prevent the possible interference of illegal armed groups.
According to Interior Minister Daniel Palacios, the government prioritized 99 of 1,300 municipalities for “electoral risk” posed by illegal armed groups.
The municipalities in historically violent regions were prioritized because ” they have some kind of risk caused by illegal armed groups.”

OBSERVATION - Kinda buried by so much other activity, leftists are fighting and in many cases, winning political control of Central and South America.
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Just when you think things cannot get any hotter . . . . .
It has been taking me about an hour extra time to go through my news sources to put these reports together.

Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key

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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ukraine war has allowed GGR to operate towards the ‘reset’ without much news coverage.

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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Doom cries about a new ‘variant’ poking their head up.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced on Thursday that it would limit who can receive the Johnson & Johnson/Janssen Covid-19 shot due to the serious risk of blood clots.
The FDA announced that it would limit the authorized use of J&J Covid-19 shot to individuals 18 years of age and older for whom other authorized or approved COVID-19 vaccines are not accessible or clinically appropriate, and to individuals 18 years of age and older who elect to receive the Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine because they would otherwise not receive a COVID-19 vaccine.

OBSERVATION - Now when will similar be issued for Pfizer and Moderna mRNA jabs?
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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world.

Markets were hammered yesterday, some analysts think due to delayed reaction from the fed raising its rates by 0.5% -
NASDAQ, largest one day percentage plunge since June 11th, 2020.
DOW, largest one day percentage plunge since October 28th, 2020.
RUSSELL 2000, largest one day percentage plunge since June 11th, 2020.

Worker productivity fell to start 2022 at its fastest pace in nearly 75 years while labor costs soared as the U.S. struggled with surging Covid cases, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. At the same time, unit labor costs soared 11.6%, bringing the increase over the past four quarters to 7.2%, the biggest gain since the third quarter of 1982.

The Biden administration plans to seek bids this fall to buy 60 million barrels of crude oil as the first step in a years-long process aimed at replenishing America’s emergency oil reserve, an Energy Department official told CNN.
This would mark the first time since the early 2000s that the Energy Department has acquired large quantities of oil for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the largest emergency supply of oil on the planet.

OBSERVATION - The oil releases have done absolutely nothing to lower prices. Biden is still on track to continue releases throughout the summer.
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Biden’s policies guarantee uncontrollable flood of illegals starting next month.

Seventy-four percent of Americans say the Biden administration is not equipped to handle the expected surge in illegal border crossings should it end Title 42, a pandemic-era border restriction put in place by the Trump administration early in the coronavirus pandemic that allows U.S. border officials to turn away migrants who have reached the U.S., according to a CNN poll released Wednesday.
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Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.

Reports of tensions between Kamala Harris and Joe Biden have abounded over the past year. Most recently, “Privately, Harris has advocated for additional loan forgiveness. One White House source said her office seemed initially eager to participate in the administration’s public dialogue around student loans,” the report says. “But conscious of progressives pushing Biden to unilaterally cancel tens of thousands of dollars in student debt and that Biden is resisting such lobbying, the vice president has been increasingly wary of becoming part of the public face of the administration’s response.”
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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - Leaked USSC draft decision has caused this to heat up. Pushing to borderline RED Antifa trying to piggy back proabort protests for general violence. Monitoring to see if this gains traction.

Antifa have announced plans for a violent direct action at Pan Pacific Park in Los Angeles on May 6 at 7 pm in support of abortion. They’ve created digital flyers & instructions on how to avoid being identified.
Chicago Antifa have announced a direct action in Federal Plaza for Saturday, May 7 at 12 p.m. They explicitly warn against “peace police,” e.g. people who try to stop them from being violent.

Antifa account @rechelon has compiled a list of addresses of centers to target in the Portland-area. The purpose is to facilitate attacking and putting out hits on pregnancy centers in Portland, OR.

OBSERVATION - The success or failure to get significant Antifa turnout for these events will serve a one gauge of how much traction the proabort protests is giving towards the start of pre midterm rioting.

Pro-abortion activists are targeting Catholic churches for protests on Mother’s Day, with some citing the Roman Catholic faith of multiple justices who reportedly at one point supported the leaked draft opinion striking down Roe v. Wade. The organization Rise Up 4 Abortion Rights has organized a “week of action” beginning on May 8, Mother’s Day, with “Actions Outside of Churches.” One can expect Antifa to try to piggyback on these as well.

Virginia Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares sent a letter signed by 20 GOP attorneys general on Thursday to Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas threatening legal action against its ‘un-American’ Disinformation Governance Board. The letter claims that the new board violates the constitutional freedoms that attorneys general are called to defend.

On Wednesday, Joe Biden falsely characterized MAGA Republicans as the “most extremist” political group in U.S. history. Later that day, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki confirmed that Biden meant what he said.
The name-calling started on Wednesday morning, when Joe Biden sent up a test balloon for a new way to attack conservatives, Republicans and Trump supporters by calling them “ultra MAGAs.” Later, during her White House press conference, Biden spokeswoman Jen Psaki essentially noted that Biden meant what he said. “But he is still going to call out where he sees extremist actions and extremist rhetoric,” Psaki exclaimed.

OBSERVATION -Some pundits have likened this to hillary’s “deplorable” moment.
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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*

A lot of parallel political actions in response to the USSC leak and upcoming midterms.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
On-going NATO support operations to Ukraine.

Russian continues to threaten NATO resupply efforts.
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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
DISCUSSION - Expanding lock downs threaten to tank what limited economic recovery China has had post wuhan and the rest of the globe are facing new supply shortages.
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Following this week’s SRBM test, all eyes continue to watch NK’s underground nuclear test facility for a potential test of a ‘tactical’ nuclear device some time this month.
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Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - Japan continues to upgrade its military and alliances in the face of Chinese aggression and NK nuclear aspirations.

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Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - ONGOING -

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has kicked off their offensive to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

*********
Russian continues its prep for the annual May 9th parade and activities. Mixed signals on if putin is going to declare war against Ukraine.

RUMINT -
See discussion regarding the “Admiral Makarov” Under Ukraine
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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Ukraine into its third month.

WEATHER FORECAST - The 10 day forecast has more rain in the extended forecast. Recent dry spell hasn’t helped muddy off road conditions in eastern Ukraine and still poses a negative off road maneuver effect

RUMINT -
Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate, “Admiral Makarov” of the Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet is reportedly on fire near Zmiiny (Snake) island in Black Sea and is one of the Russian navy’s newest vessels and the most state-of-the-art frigate operating in the Black Sea.
Unconfirmed reports suggest rescue vessels and aircraft have set off from Sevastopol towards the site, Reportedly hit by Ukraine anti ship missiles. Very much RUMINT yesterday when things started to float around the inter webs. Overnight more evidence pro and con came out. Moderate increase in US/NATO airborne intel noted, with the latests RAF Rivet Joint operation off Crimea and south Russia. Area normally covered by a drone.
Rumor was resurrected when Oleksiy Goncharenko, head of Odesa regional council, said Russian frigate Admiral Makarov got into ‘trouble’ in the Black Sea overnight.

If this report is correct, this will be the second capitol ship lost by to Ukraine Neptune ASM’s The Kremlin has denied that it has any information about a reported Ukrainian strike on a Russian warship in the Black Sea.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukraine announced that it was launching the 2nd, offensive phase of its war with Russia, after claiming Russian forces have ‘stalled’ in their own offensive moves. Ukraine forces are launching a counter-offensive Kharkiv / Izyum (Khariv front) region. Ukraine forces didn’t launch any further attacks in the area, likely in preparation to supply up for the counter offensive. Ukraine did repel Russian attempts to regain lost positions in the region.

Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations toward Zaporizhia City but did not conduct any attacks in Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Russian forces continued to strike Khariv and surrounding with artillery fire.
As noted above, Ukraine forces now planning a significant counter offensive in the Kharkiv / Izyum that will build upon the successes of the past week. This offensive has the potential of cutting off the Izyum salient and will force Russian to redeploy forces to protect its flank.

The Russian Izyum thrust has essentially been stalled for a week and Ukraine strike on the CP and logistics have placed those forces in a much reduced level of combat effectiveness. So much so that there are unconfirmed reports from the Ukrainian General Staff that elements of the 4th Tank Division and the 106th Airborne Division have been withdrawn to Russia after sustaining heavy losses in the Izyum axis in the past several days.

Further south, according to ISW, Ukrainian forces have so far prevented Russian forces from merging their offensives to the southeast of Izyum and the west of Lyman, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk,”.
Overnight, intense Russian artillery fire was observed around Yampil and Popasna.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian troops continue attacks on Azovstal. Reportedly Russian forces have breached the Azovstal facility itself, gaining access to the underground complex and are slowly taking it over.

Russian forces continue to be unsuccessful in pushing northward across the LOC to support the Russian advance coming from the south.

Crimea Front -
Russia conducted continued offensive operations toward Zaporizhia City, the purpose of which is to try to generate a breakout and develop a northeastern directed axis towards the Izyum, Lyman, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk region.

Russian troops shelled Zahradovka, Zelenodolsk, Kniazevka, Trudolyubivka, Topolyne, Dobrianka, Velyka Kostromka. Ukrainian forces shot down Orlan drone at Kryvyi Rih frontline.

Ukrainan forces continued to successfully push Russian forces away from Mykolaiv City.

Western Ukraine -
No significant actions.

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report

OUTLOOK -
Watching the dynamics of the announced Ukrainian counter offensive in the Kharkiv / Izyum region. It has several potential goal.
1. Push Russian artillery out of range of the city and suburbs
2. Pivot to southeast and threaten to roll up the Izyum salient from the rear, cutting off logistics routes to the south.
3. Force Russian to divert units from their advances in the Lyman, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk, axes to defend against #2 above
4. Potentially open up opportunities to conduct cross border attacks into Russia targeting Russian bases and logistical support operations.

The Russian missile assault has tapered off and will likely be followed by spikes in activity as Russian BDA identifies new targets. It just doesn’t have the assets to conduct timely post strike assessments.

I see nothing that indicates Russia is going to do anything big out of the Crimea front. Attacks towards Zaporizhia City appear to be designed to fix Ukraine forces in place and prevent them from being redeployed to the east. Some are assessing that Russia is pausing in order to resume its attempt to capture all of Kherson Oblast, but this seems to be increasingly unlikely given the operational and man power requirement to force the capture of the Donbas region.

Probably by the end of today the mystery about the “Admiral Makarov” will be confirmed or denied. If true, this would be a huge hit on the Black Sea fleet.

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Moldova/Transnistria - ORANGE *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - This category added this week as false flag events hit Russian controlled Transnistria and Russia agitates this small country.

Events here are developing rapidly.

Transnistrian media reported unspecified indiscriminate shooting near the Kuchurhan-Pervomaisc border checkpoint with Ukraine on May 5, two days after Ukraine blocked the crossing.

OBSERVATION - Most likely false info or a false flag to further the tensions.

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Belarus - ORANGE *updated 04-22-22*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.

The current Belarus military alert exercises are unlikely to result in any kind of invasion of Western Ukraine.
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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland remains in Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.

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U.S. would be able to provide more military aid to Sweden and Finland ahead of accession to the NATO alliance if they are threatened by Russia - Pentagon

Estonia is pushing for a 7th EU sanctions package to target new areas of the Russian economy

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Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Several terror attacks by West Bank Palestinians has caused tensions to skyrocket over the past week.

Russian President Putin apologized to Israeli Prime Minster Bennett for comments made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who said that Hitler had Jewish blood and that jews are the biggest antisemites.

OBSERVATION - Putin trying to undo the damage done by his conspiracy loon foreign minister, Lavrov. Russia has been trying to do a delicate balancing act working with Israel concerning Hezebollah in Syria. Putin also cannot afford to start having Israel providing more lethal defensive arms and material to Ukraine.
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Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*

The US Senate on Wednesday passed a non-binding motion demanding that any nuclear agreement reached with Iran also address the Islamic Republic’s ballistic missile program and support for proxies in the region.

OBSERVATION - This is a non binding resolution - a nothing burger. Iran is going to get its way and biden is more than happy to allow that.

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Lebanon - YELLOW

The UN chief called for Lebanon’s parliamentary elections on May 15 to be “free, fair, transparent and inclusive” in a report circulated Wednesday, and warned of Hezbollah’s destabilizing presence in the country that is undergoing multiple crises.

OBSERVATION - There has been increasing anger towards Hezbollah by the general population because they essentially control the current govt and essentially own the current economic meltdown.
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Syria - YELLOW

After a lot of bombing/artillery action in Idlib, and a Turkish offensive in the north against Kurds, things have quieted down substantially over the past few days.
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