Another wild week.
Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key
BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.
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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ukraine war has allowed GGR to operate towards the ‘reset’ without much news coverage.
The Biden administration on Thursday unveiled an international “Declaration for the Future of the Internet” with 50 other countries, slamming the policies of “authoritarian” governments — while endorsing efforts to curb online “disinformation” and “harassment.” The document outlines ideas for “reclaiming the promise of the Internet” and US officials described it as an effort to counter the practices of countries including China and Russia.
OBSERVATION - Key words “disinformation” and “harassment” are going to be front and center over the next few months as biden (as well as other GGR syncopaths) seek to control internet speech in a greater manner.
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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Doom cries about a new ‘variant’ poking their head up.
Denmark has become the first country to halt its Covid vaccination program, saying it is doing so because the virus is now under control. Far from scrapping its vaccination program altogether, however, the Danish Health and Medicines Authority said there will probably be a need to vaccinate against Covid-19 again in the fall as the virus continues to mutate.
The World Health Organization’s Maria Van Kerkhove said that the next COVID variant could be a cause for concern, as too many variants are currently in circulation. The uncertainty of what the next COVID variant could remain a significant cause of concern for the WHO.
“We need to plan for different kinds of scenarios,” Van Kerkhove said. She also pointed out that Omicron is currently dominant worldwide, adding that the WHO is currently tracking sublineages and sister lineages of the variant – BA.4, BA.5, BA.2.12.1.
OBSERVATION - The solution, according to the rulers, is the “vaccine.” Yet, in the age of the vaccine, people are still getting sick and being hospitalized and dying of the disease they were injected against. Other “health officials” have also stated that the vaccine doesn’t stop transmission or therefore, infection.
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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world.
With the contraction of the GDP this week by 1.4%, economists are peering into their cups trying to discern what the tea leaves are saying. With that comes renewed discussion of stagflation. Others look at it as confirmation of an impending recession. Possibly a combination of the two.
The sharp drops in stocks and bonds is a warning sign that the Federal Reserve could trigger a financial crisis by hiking interest rates aggressively, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood has said. Wood’s comment came on the same day Deutsche Bank predicted a major US recession in a research note. The bank said the Fed would have to increase rates to above 5%, from the current level of 0.25%, to get a grip on inflation.
The Ark Invest CEO also said the recent sharp rise in the dollar was a warning signal, and is becoming a problem for the global economy. The dollar index has risen 7.44% in 2022 to 103.10, as of Wednesday.
Senator Chuck Schumer claims the “only way” to reduce inflation is to raise taxes on Americans. NOTE - a real case for term limits.
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Biden’s policies guarantee uncontrollable flood of illegals starting next month.
A leaked draft of a 2020 internal ICE report states that the “Alternatives to Detention” program, which has cost $1.46 billion since it started in 2004, has “little value.” The program uses ICE-provided ankle monitors and smartphones using the SmartLink program for tracking illegal immigrants released by authorities. An average of 84% of illegal immigrants leave the program, ditch devices, or delete tracking applications to live in the United States illegally. Some 216,000 illegal immigrants are currently enrolled in the program. (FO)
OBSERVATION - One would almost consider this to have been deliberately put together in order to fail.
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Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.
Joe Biden struggled to speak earlier today as he discussed specific actions the United States is taking to punish those close to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Biden promised to “accommodate” the “oligarchs” before laughing twice.
Biden promised to “Enhance our underlying effort to accommodate the Russian oligarchs and make sure we take their, take their ill begotten gains.” At this point, Biden apparently realized he got a word wrong, and began laughing. We’re going to accommodate them,” said Biden, fighting laughter.
“We’re going to seize their yachts, their luxury homes, and other ill begotten gains of Putin’s kleptocric– yeah, kleptocracy, the guys who are the kleptocracies,” Biden said before laughing again. He then summarized, “But these are bad guys.”
OBSERVATION - It is becoming painful watching biden press conferences/appearances due to the rapid decline in mental ability. It makes me wonder why his handlers are still putting him in front of cameras ?
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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - BLM/Antifa maintaining lowered presence outside of base areas (Portland, Seattle etc). There are continued events like first aid and riot training. Rampant crime continues with it migrating into affluent areas.
Building tension in Kenosha WI where some want to put up a memorial for Anthony Huber, one of the men Kyle Rittenhouse killed in self defense. Huber’s girlfriend Hannah Gittings requested on April 5 that a memorial marker be placed in Huber’s memory at a flowering dogwood in Anderson Park, according to public documents attached to the committee’s agenda reviewed by Fox News Digital. Vocal opposition to the plan caused the proposal to be tabled.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT - YELLOW *updated 01-28-22*
Musk’s take over of Twitter still causing shockwaves in the liberal snowflake world.
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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*
Battles over congressional redistricting maps is ongoing hot and heavy and so far democrat attempts to gerrymander them in order to preserve their House majority have been failing in court challenges bigly.
The day after the Biden Admin announced a new program that essentially amounts to a Ministry of Truth., Congressman Hank Johnson asked DHS Secretary Mayorkas about how he plans to stop misinformation.
“Mr. Secretary, mimicking false claims of ex-president Trump, we continue to see social media posts claiming “if our election systems continue to be rigged and continue to be stolen, then it’s gonna lead to one place and it’s bloodshed.”
OBSERVATION - Not the Bee nailed it. -
“the Congressman (Johnson ) who was worried that Guam would “tip over” & “capsize” because of too many people is worried about “disinformation.”
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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
On-going NATO support operations to Ukraine.
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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
DISCUSSION - Shanghai (now 5 weeks in duration) and potentially a Beijing lockdown have created internal strife as well as more global economic supply woes with the shut down of key ports.
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North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - North Korea held a highly-expected military parade on Monday. Meanwhile NUKE test watch continues as work at the test site continues.
According to Yonhap, it appears that North Korea is be continuing work to restore the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. The test site was ostensibly demolished in May 25th 2018 ahead of the historic summit with the United States. The site had tests in, 2006, 2009, 2013, 2016/17.
OBSERVATION - Some geologists noted that after the last nuclear test (thermonuclear - H Bomb), the structural integrity of the underground test site was probably compromised. This could result in rock failure from another test - releasing a considerable amount of radioactive material into the air.
Last week, the South Korean Navy conducted dual missile launch tests of its KSS-III submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) system. The new SLBM is based on South Korea’s Hyunmoo-2B, a land-based ballistic missile that has a range of 500 km.
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Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - Japan continues to upgrade its military and alliances in the face of Chinese aggression and NK nuclear aspirations.
In a rare update of Japan’s National Security Strategy, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has proposed an increase to the country’s defense budget to 2% of GDP and direct the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to develop a “counter-strike” capability to disable enemy missiles and command and control facilities. The plan is reportedly in response to the changing security environment in the Pacific (FO)
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Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - ONGOING -
WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has kicked off their offensive to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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A senior U.S. defense official said today that Russian troops are making “slow, uneven and incremental” progress in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas. The Russians are meeting strong resistance from the Ukrainian forces, and there’s lots of “back and forth” in the daily fighting, but no “huge changes,” the official said.
As Russia addresses the logistical problems its forces had in the early days of the war, it’s operating in a relatively cautious manner to avoid overextending its supply lines, the official said. He noted that the Russians “sprinted” toward Kyiv in the first days of the fighting, and then found themselves stuck because they couldn’t be resupplied in a timely manner. (NPR)
Personnel Issues -
- It is being reported that Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov will take personal command of the Russian offensive in the Izyum direction……If confirmed, the appointment of Russia’s senior general officer to command tactical operations indicates both the importance of the Izyum drive to Russia’s war in Ukraine and the breakdown in the Russian military’s normal chain of command.
- Gerasimov apparently will replace Gen Dvornikov who was appointed head of the “special military operation” in Ukraine in mid-April when it became clear that Russia had made numerous strategic mistakes on the ground. Dvornikov is one of Putin’s most loyal men, who has a reputation as a tough guy among tough guys. Some rumors have popped up that he was one of the three generals killed in the recent Ukrainan strike of a CP in Kherson. Speculation is that he was unable to get the job done.
- Update of Russian senior officer losses
- Arrested - 1 Admiral, 21 Generals and 150 FSB officers;
- 10 Generals KIA;
- 20 Colonels KIA;
- 34 Lt Colonels KIA (+2);
- 4 Navy Captains.
Economic Hits -
- Russia is facing its biggest slump in oil production since the finals days of the Soviet Union, as Western sanctions continue to batter the economy. The Kremlin sees output falling as much as 17% this year, according to a document from Russia’s economy ministry seen by Reuters. Russian oil production began to drop in March, and by mid-April was already down by 7.5%, according to Reuters.
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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Ukraine has entered its third month.
WEATHER FORECAST - The 10 day forecast has clearing and drying conditions. This may make off road maneuvering more favorable towards the end of the forecast period. .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The United States Congress has passed lend-lease legislation that will make it easier to export military equipment to Ukraine, reviving a World War II-era US weapons financing program.
The US House of Representatives overwhelmingly backed the “Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022” on Thursday by a vote of 417 to 10, sending the bill to President Joe Biden for his signature. The bill had sailed through the Senate with unanimous support.
Russia made minor advances over the course of the past week in the general Donbas region. Russia supported these advances with considerable artillery support. These advances also displayed more coordination in the southern Khariv front, developing along parallel and mutually supporting axis. These axises however are strongly road bound and Russia appears to be cautious not to outstrip its logistics tail.
Along other fronts, Russian reinforcements continue to deploy to Belgorod to support the Izyum advance. Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant continue to hold out against heavy Russian artillery and aerial bombardment, including the likely use of multi-ton “bunker-buster” bombs against a Ukrainian field hospital.
Kyiv front -
Three Russian missiles hit Kyiv an infrastructure object, as well as a residential complex near it were damaged. More infrastructure was hit in Kyiv suburbs too. All this during an official visit of UN’s Secretary-General
UN Secretary General told reporters he’s shocked by Russia carrying out a missile attack on Kyiv while he’s on the city for talks with President Zelensky.
Zelenskyy says the bombing of Kyiv while Guterres was present is “aimed at humiliating the United Nations”
OBSERVATION - Russia did not hit Kyiv with missiles during visits of other world leaders. He did hit railways after the US SecState and SecDef departed for Poland from Kyiv.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
NOTE - Combined these two fronts.
Ukraine’s Border Guard Service reported Russian forces fired at border checkpoints in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Russian forces continued to strike Khariv and surrounding with artillery fire.
Ukrainian forces continue to make gains around Kharkiv, who’s troops have entered the outskirts of Rus’ka Lozova and have secured full control of Kutuzivka. If Ukraine takes Kozacha Lopan or Rus’ka Lozova then Ukraine might plan to pressure Belgorod doesn’t seem far fetched. See OUTLOOK for more discussions on the implication of Ukrainan advances in area.
Russian forces in Izyum continued attacks on three lines of advance – southeast towards Slovyansk, southwest towards Barvinkove, and directly west away from Donetsk Oblast Russian troops unsuccessfully attempted to advance at Brazhkivka, Dovhenke in Kharkiv region
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant continue to hold out.
Russian forces conducted several assaults west of Donetsk, attempting to advance on Solodke, Novomykhailivka, and Marinka; and Russian forces attempted to advance north of Mariupol in the area of Neskuchne and Vremivka.
According to US officials, Russia is reportedly moving “significant” numbers of troops out of Mariupol to the north and northwest: senior U.S. defense official. Troops moving to the north will likely be associated with a push to Dnipro while those headed northwest associated with a push on Zaporizhia.
Truckloads of grain were observed being carried off toward Russia from Russian occupied Melitopol. Russia stealing Ukrainian grain.
Crimea Front -
See-saw conflicts in this area overnight. Russian forces advanced west of Kherson moving North-West from Molodets’ke, managing to reach and capture Tavrijs´ke. They were eventually stopped at Nova Zorya. Russian forces recently took Oleksandrivka but have once again withdrawn and there are Ukrainan troops present in the settlement.
Russian troops unsuccessfully attempted to advance Rubizhne of Luhansk region, near Oleksandrivka, Tavriyske, Ivanivka and Zahradivka in Kherson region.
Russian actions appear to want to capture the western border of Kherson Oblast and threaten Mykolaiv .
A railway bridge in Russian-occupied territory used to moved weapons and supplies from Crimea to Melitopol was destroyed yesterday.
Air defense units shot down three Russian missiles over the Odesa district overnight.
Western Ukraine -
No significant actions.
Russian Territory -
At least 2 Large Explosions have reportedly been heard in the Western Russian city of Belgorod, there have been no indications on what has caused them. Russian Air Defenses also now being reported Active over the City, it’s possible the Explosions may have been Missile Interceptions.
OUTLOOK -
Russia will continue to press attacks into the Donbas region. So far they have gained little ground and suffered heavy losses and there is no evidence that they will change their tactics. The change in consolidated Russian leadership now to Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov suggests that there will be another period of trying to reorganization and restructure of the combat units; renewal or update of operation plans and appropriate logistical adjustments/priorities.
Actions in the Crimea front area may well be tied to unrest in Moldova/Transnistria. Russia may try to do something to enable an amphibious operation to seize Odesa from the west. This would require a supporting Russian assault from the east from Kherson. Both very difficult and dangerous at this stage and I question the ability to pull it off.
Ukraine pushes towards the Russian border in the vicinity of Kharkiv may raise potential implications for an actual Ukraine invasion of Russia directed towards Belgorod. As noted above, if Ukraine takes Kozacha Lopan or Rus’ka Lozova the path to Belgorod opens up, located only about 60 km from Ukraine. Ukraine wouldn’t have to do too much, as the threat to this key Russian supply base for its eastern Donbas operation would cause them to have to divert even more resources to protect this critical rear area.
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Moldova/Transnistria - ORANGE *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - This category added this week as false flag events hit Russian controlled Transnistria and Russia agitates this small country.
Events here are developing rapidly.
Israel, Bulgaria, Romania, USA, Canada, Germany, and Russia have called on their citizens to leave Moldova and the Transnistria region as soon as possible. Confirmation on the UK and Canada. Both advise you avoid travel to Transnistria, and urge extreme caution if you’re traveling in Moldova.
After the Moldavian Breakaway Region of Transnistria banned all men between the ages of 18-55 from leaving the “Country” earlier today, the Transnistrian Ministry of Defense has reportedly ordered a General Mobilization though the Supreme Council is yet to approve the Order. Transnistrian President Krasnoselsky ordered the Ministry of Internal Affairs to “be ready for any scenario,” but (likely falsely) denied reports that Transnistrian authorities are preventing men of fighting age from leaving the region.
The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Transnistria is preparing to fully staff its military units and increase their readiness.
Former defense minister Vitalie Marinuța said that Moldova has much to fear in the current situation in Ukraine and the threat to Chisinau from “the fifth column,” consisting of the Gagauzia and “also pro-Russian Socialists and Communists”.
The UK sent an intelligence report to Ukraine that Russia is preparing a landing in Transnistria if an escalation begins. Additional forces of the Russian army are being transferred to Crimea, and the Black Sea Fleet is preparing an operation in the Bessarabia region.
OBSERVATION - More unrest developing in this area.
BLUF - What Russia has in mind here is not very clear yet. Obviously they are up to something, but at this point is appears their options are limited.
NOTE on the UK intelligence report. The Transnistra region is completely land locked, so any transfer of Russia forces there have to be either via a contested amphibious operation through Ukrainan territory (already armed to the teeth expecting such an operation), of airborne over Ukraine territory (armed to the teeth with anti air missiles - and some help from western airborne intelligence assets) or via Romania (who’s closed airspace to all Russian aircraft and would view such an incursion an act of war).
Russian forces in Transnistra are only about 2 -3 poorly trained and equipped battalions, totally inadequate to engage Ukraine in a meaningful manner, but sufficient to create a lot of problems with Moldova proper. Due to historic ties to Romania, the breakout of more separatist actions here could draw Romania in and potentially result in a conflict with Russian forces - triggering Article 5.
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Belarus - ORANGE *updated 04-22-22*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.
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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland remains in Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.
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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - NATO nations continue to funnel war supplies to Ukraine. Now they are hosting Ukrainan soldiers training on more modern pieces of equipment being delivered to the country.
The European Union says it’s planning a response to Russian energy giant Gazprom after it abruptly halted gas shipments to two EU countries.
Gazprom shut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, ostensibly for refusing to pay for the imports in rubles. Polish and Bulgarian authorities view the stoppage as retaliation for the EU’s support of Ukraine.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the move a failed attempt to blackmail Europe.
The German Chancellor warned that the country must be prepared for Russia to cut off gas supplies, similar to what happened to Poland and Bulgaria.
On Thursday lawmakers in the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house of parliament, voted overwhelmingly to approve sending “heavy weapons and complex machinery” to Ukraine. According to national media it passed with 586 votes in favor, 100 against, and seven abstentions.
Senior officials from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland met on Friday to discuss the NATO security situation in the Baltic region. The group agreed that NATO needs to deploy additional troops to the Baltics.
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Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Several terror attacks by West Bank Palestinians has caused tensions to skyrocket over the past week.
Ongoing clashes between Palestinians and ISF at Al Aqsa Mosque Yard were the main topic this past week along with the almost regularly scheduled IAF air strikes on Hezebollah facilities in and around Syria. Hamas appears to have been able to reign in PIJ and other splinter groups to prevent an all out bombing campaign against Gaza.
“In light of the deteriorating security situation in the Transnistria region and in light of the fact that the Foreign Ministry’s ability to provide assistance to Israeli citizens residing there is restricted, Israeli citizens are urged to leave Transnistria as soon as possible.”
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Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*
DISCUSSION - Iran still playing the west like a fiddle over the ongoing nuclear arms talks.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan - YELLOW
Secretary of State Antony Blinken says there is “greater stability and peace” for women in the Taliban-led Afghanistan
OBSERVATION - One has to wonder if this guy is on drugs, making statements like this.
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Turkey - YELLOW *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - Turkey kicked off operations in both Northern Syria and N Iraq targeting the Kurdish PKK. Most aggressive ground ops by Turkey against these elements in a while.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
This guy is scary. Yuval Hariri, an Israeli professor of history who has profoundly influenced Klaus Schwab, explained at a recent globalist conference, exactly what the COVID pandemic was being used by the globalist elites to do: “COVID is critical because this is what convinces people to accept, to legitimize, total biometric surveillance. If we want to stop this epidemic — we need to not just monitor people, we need to monitor what is happening underneath their skin.” “Maybe in a couple of decades, when people look back, the thing they will remember from the COVID crisis, is: this is the moment when everything went digital. This was the moment when everything became monitored — that we agreed to be surveilled all the time. Not just in authoritarian regimes but even in democracies. This was the moment when surveillance went under the skin.”
OBSERVATION - Individual “monitoring” sniffs of global crackdown of individual liberties of a biblical scale.
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Wuhan virus -
Rhode Island lawmakers have proposed a bill that would require residents 16 and older to be COVID vaccinated. Those who don’t comply would be fined.
A relatively long and technical article on A biodistribution study of the Pfizer Covid-19 jabs. Readable at the following link -
https://dailyexpose.uk/2022/04/29/pfizer-study-mrna-vaccines-suspended/
BLUF - Pfizer buried data showing that the stuff in the jabs was not staying in place, like they claimed. This is more evidence of fraud and misrepresentation of the ’science’ involved.
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Economy -
Food issues grow. First suffering from drought condition, now the Dakotas are suffering from too much snow and rain, causing foods and conditions that are preventing U.S. spring-wheat farmers from planting in the high-producing crop region.
Meanwhile in India, an unusually early, record-shattering heat wave has reduced wheat yields, raising questions about how the country will balance its domestic needs with ambitions to increase exports and make up for shortfalls due to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Thought both could also be listed under “Black Swan” events, these reports demonstrate that this year’s already stressed global harvests are becoming even more so, with the end result being shortages and increasing prices.
Disposable income fell in March after adjusting for inflation, the Commerce Department said Friday. Real disposable personal income, which is income after taxes and inflation, fell 0.4 percent in March compared with February. This was the seventh time in the last eight months that disposable personal income in the U.S. fell from the previous month. It rose in February by 0.15 percent.
An inflation gauge closely tracked by the Federal Reserve jumped 6.6% in March compared with a year ago, the highest 12-month reading of the personal consumption index (PCE) in four decades, further evidence that surging prices are pressuring household budgets and the health of the economy.
Markets have taken a beating in April. The benchmark S&P 500 fell 3.6% Friday and finished April with an 8.8% loss, its worst monthly slide since March 2020. The Dow lost 939 points, lowering its value by 2.8%.
The Nasdaq composite, heavily weighted with technology stocks, bore the brunt of the damage this month, ending April with a 13.3% loss, its biggest monthly decline since the 2008 financial crisis. On Friday, it lost 537 points, or 4.17%.
Much of the anxiety on Wall Street in April has centered around how quickly the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate and whether an aggressive series of hikes will crimp economic growth.
OBSERVATION- Markets are forward looking to a lot of economic chaos towards the end of the FY, coincidentally around the midterm election time frame.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Yesterday, Antifa attacked participants of the People’s Convoy driving on the freeway through Portland by throwing projectiles & paint on the vehicles below.
The FBI may have conducted millions of warrantless searches of Americans’ electronic data last year, U.S. intelligence officials acknowledged in a report released Friday. The report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence revealed that the bureau conducted up to 3.4 million searches of U.S. data drawn from the National Security Agency.
OBSERVATION - It is even clear to the village idiot - our government is becoming increasingly lawless and targeting citizens for future ideological crackdowns.
The Disinformation Governance Board is being tasked with addressing election related issues, cracking down on dissenting opinions under the guise of fighting “disinformation.”
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un warned yet again that the North could preemptively use its nuclear weapons if threatened, as he praised his top military officials over the staging of a massive military parade in the capital, Pyongyang, this week.
Kim expressed “firm will” to continue developing his nuclear-armed military so that it could “preemptively and thoroughly contain and frustrate all dangerous attempts and threatening moves, including ever-escalating nuclear threats from hostile forces, if necessary,” the North’s official Korean Central News Agency said Saturday.
OBSERVATION - SK’s new govt has already stated it will be upping its defense forces to include a first strike capability against NK . Kim’s problem is that the NK army has deteriorated significantly with outdated and poorly maintained equipment, and half starved soldiers because he has diverted so much money into nuclear strike capability.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 65)
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Eyes are increasing upon Russia and Putin as the May 9th “V” day celebrations approach. The British Ministry of Defense has reportedly seen indications that Russian President Putin is preparing a Statement for May 9th during the Victory Parade in Moscow, which its expected a General Mobilization and a Declaration of War against Ukraine will be declared.
OBSERVATION - This general mobilization concern has been floating around for over a month. It would not have much immediate bearing on the current situation in Ukraine as it would take months to mobilize and train soldiers and get them into combat in addition to trying to equip them with armor and other vehicles necessary (and in abundantly short supply). This could be used to more aggressively use strategic arms, potentially targeting Nato support to Ukraine. Recent rhetoric from the Kremlin has been warning Poland, and other countries of Russia’s wrath.
Russian state TV has brazenly simulated how Vladimir Putin would launch a nuclear strike on three capital cities in Europe, declaring there would be ‘no survivors’, in response to comments made by the UK’s Armed Forces Minister supporting Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure.
Hosts on Channel One’s 60 Minutes program announced the cities of London, Paris and Berlin could be hit within 200 seconds of nuclear missiles being launched, as tensions ramp up amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Remember, they broadcast what putin directs/allows.
Logistics -
- According to Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Russia lost over 1,000 tanks since the start of the full-scale invasion. No European country, except Ukraine and Russia, even has that many tanks.
- Numerous pundits point to Russian tank reserves as being over 10,000 that is on paper. Reality shows that the Russian stockpile consists of largely canibalized (or pilfered) Cold War era tanks that only about 10% could be considered combat ready. It includes T-54 and T-62 vintage models.
- Wuhan induced supply shortages, combined with sanctions, has shut down Russian factories producing tanks and armored vehicles, as well as other materials for war.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia has been forced to merge and redeploy depleted and disparate units in eastern Ukraine, the UK’s Ministry of Defence says and “many of these units are likely suffering from weakened morale”.
- Russia’s personnel losses in Ukraine have now passed 23,000 in 65 days of war: Ukraine military estimate. When compared to the confirmed Russian equipment losses, the number of deaths is not extreme. Multiply by 3 to 4 to gain an estimate of total wounded. These are huge numbers, close to 100,000 total casualties.
Economic Impacts -
- Russia made what appeared to be a late u-turn to avoid a default on Friday, as it made a number of already-overdue international debt payments in dollars despite previously vowing they would only be paid in rubles. Whether the money would make it to the United States and other Western countries that sanctioned Russia was still not clear, but it represented another major twist in the game of financial chicken that has developed about a possible default
- The EU is reportedly going to start implementing a phased oil embargo on Russia from next week
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying..
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian forces continue their push between Izyum and Popasna in an effort to capture Russian troops continued to shell the entire frontline in Donetsk and Luhansk and secured several tactical advances, reportedly captured Yampil (directly west of Severodonetsk). Continued advances on multiple axises have reached the point where there are growing concerns that some Ukrainian forces (probably elements of 57th Motorized Brigade) east of Izyum are at risk of at least a partial encirclement/getting trapped north of Siverskyi Donets river. However these Russian advances are facing stiff opposition and Russians continue to have high men and equipment losses.
The southern side of the Donbas offensive has a lot of Russian artillery hitting the Ukraine side of the LOC, but little movement. Increased activity coming from the Crimea front, however, Ukraine forces are making headway to interfere with support to the Dombas offensive. Ukraine still has forces holding out in the steel plant, though it seems Russian is content to limit operations against it.
Kyiv front -
Another mass grave with 900 people found in Kyiv Oblast.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Ukrainian forces continued limited counterattacks directly northeast of Kharkiv city and recaptured Ruska Lozova (10km north of the city)
Russian shelling in Rubizhne, Popasna, Hirske and Orikhove as Russian forces continue to make slow headway west.
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian airstrikes continued to bombard the Azovstal plant and Russian forces did not conduct any major ground attacks as forces continued to redeploy from Mariupol. Russian forces likely intend to both consolidate their control of Mariupol and advance false Kremlin rhetoric of “liberation,” rather than a military occupation.
Crimea Front -
All across the eastern portion of the Crimean front heavy Russian artillery fire. Huliaipilske, Preobrazhenka, Vremivka, Olhivske, Zelene Pole, Poltavka, Chervone, Malynivka, Novodanylivka, Belogorye, Mala Tokmachka, Orikhiv, Novopil, Pershotravneve, Temerivka, Novoandriivka, Kamyanske were shelled. This is most likely precursor fires to get the southern component of the Donbas pincer attack started.
Russian forces did not make any confirmed attacks in Kherson Oblast and appear to be prioritizing improving their tactical positions. Russian forces shelled several towns in Kherson, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts
Ukraine has been targeting rail bridges in the Crimea area. It has reportedly hit several bridges that severely impacts the front’s logistics plus requires more combat vehicle escorts for truck convoys needed to replace railway shipments. This further dilutes Russian Army combat power at the South where Ukraine is pushing
Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant reported.
Russian Territory -
2 projectiles hit at oil depot in Zchena of Bryansk region. Explosions reported south to Belgorod in the sky.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term. Expect continued Russian attacks southeast from Izyum, west from Kreminna and Popasna, and north from Donetsk City. More steady, tactical gains expected against Ukrainian defenders are expected, but at a high cost in Russian personnel and equipment. The Russian pace will not be fast to prevent it from outstripping its logistical tail.
Ukrainan forces likely to continue its mobile defense tactics to counter the russian pressure, keeping it from being tied down and destroyed. Continued influx of weapons and munitions will provide it with the means to not only strike the lead elements but rear areas/ follow on logistics.
Watching closely developments from the Crimea front, with the heavy artillery fire in the Zaporizhia area probably a precursor to a more aggressive ground assault designed to link up with the operation in the Izyum region.
Also monitoring any Russian movements/activities that would suggest an attempt to get Russian forces into Transnistra via area east of Odessa.
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Moldova/Transnistria -
Events here are developing rapidly.
Unconfirmed reports that Russian forces are disseminating pro-Kremlin disinformation in Transnistria and may be preparing to use Transnistria as a “springboard for aggression” against Ukraine and Moldova.
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Europe / NATO General -
“NATO fighter jets stationed around the Baltic and Black Seas have scrambled multiple times over the past four days to track and intercept Russian aircraft near Alliance airspace”
OBSERVATION - Dangerous game of chicken developing.
DOD announces training of Ukrainian troops on artillery, radar, armored vehicles is happening at U.S. bases in Germany
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Israel -
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel against continuing its “aggression against the Iranian presence in the region,” saying Iran may “attack Israel directly, during a video address delivered at a ceremony in Beirut on Friday as Iran and its proxies marked Quds Day.
Arab violence targeting Jews praying at the Western Wall forced the Israeli police to reenter the Temple Mount on Friday morning. The police were attacked by the Arabs throwing rocks and incendiary devices. The police responded by firing rubber bullets and tear gas.
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