Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

________________________________

Wuhan virus -

An investigation into publicly available data from Public Health Scotland (PHS) shows that there has been a massive surge in teenagers and young adults suffering heart attacks and other heart complications since the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines emerged.

OBSERVATION - Now over 2 years into this ‘pandemic’ the numbers are becoming undeniable. These impacts are seen globally, not just Scotland. These ‘vaccines’ have done more harm than good.

____________________________

Economy -

Reports coming out that Wells Fargo, the nation’s largest home lender among US banks , has begun laying off mortgage staff after reporting a sharp decline in home lending revenues in the first quarter of 2022.

OBSERVATION - Another sign that not only is the housing bubble imploding, but that recession is close on its heels
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

The White House refuses to follow the law and ignores the Consitution on immigration law, a trend that will continue even if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in favor of Texas and against President Joe Biden’s lawsuit over stopping the “remain in Mexico” policy, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said Saturday on Newsmax.
“It appears to me that even when we get court orders and injunctions against the Biden administration, not only do they have a disdain for following federal law and following their constitutional role, they have a disdain for any court order that is against their positions,” Paxton told Newsmax’s “Saturday Report.”

OBSERVATION - Once again i’ll point this out - biden sees courts as nuances and will (and has on many issues) ignore court orders/decisions, tying them up with appeals knowing the bloated court system will takes months/years to come to the USSC and even then play games with the ‘response’, triggering the lawsuit/appeals cycle all over again . Formally, this is known as lawlessness. And no where has he played this card more than the immigration issue.
______________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

Red and blue states are rapidly moving further apart on hot-button social issues as lawmakers and activists shift their focus to topics like abortion and transgenderism.

OBSERVATION - This divide is in part why we’ve seen the largest internal migration of people out of blue states and into red states, making them redder. Add to it the task of a ‘great divorce’ from both sides, the risk that a conventional civil war scenario increases.

Regardless of what you think of her or her statements, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R., Ga.) place on the ballot for being an “insurrectionist” is just the tip of the iceberg of the lawfare democrats will try to invoke this midterms.

OBSERVATION - Such tactics suggest the desperation the democrats are feeling under current polling trends showing a red tsunami this fall. This desperation has also triggered some conspiracy theories that democrats will trigger some sort of a disaster whereby the elections are cancelled (such as martial law) or totally corrupted. Remember, democrats have expressed a willingness to essentially burn this country down as long as they can rule over the ashes (rant off)

___________________________________

Cyber Warfare -

The FBI’s Cyber Division published a notice this past week warning about increased cyber-attack threats on agricultural cooperatives.
“Ransomware actors may be more likely to attack agricultural cooperatives during critical planting and harvest seasons, disrupting operations, causing financial loss, and negatively impacting the food supply chain,” the notice read, adding 2021 and early 2022 ransomware attacks on farming co-ops could affect the current planting season “by disrupting the supply of seeds and fertilizer.”
The agency warned, “A significant disruption of grain production could impact the entire food chain, since grain is not only consumed by humans but also used for animal feed ... In addition, a significant disruption of grain and corn production could impact commodities trading and stocks. “

OBSERVATION - Some are linking this to the theory that fires over the course of the last year at ‘food processing’ facilities are terror strikes. These ransomware cyber attacks are more real than the fire theorists. Ransomware attacks have been very wide spread across many sectors of the economy and even government sectors.

_________________________________

China -

5 PLA aircraft (four J-16 and one KA-28 ASW) entered Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ on April 23, 2022.
OBSERVATION - These incursions are on a nearly daily basis, many times info that this has occurred have been buried under other global reporting, like the Ukraine war.

____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

North Korean Air Koryo planes have been flying across the country in a further sign that a military parade is imminent.
Soliders and civilian practice for an apparent parade is continuing, based on satellite imagery.

__________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia is close to completing redeployment of forces and is expected this new offensive soon.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
Russian trying to gaslight the US and Ukraine, Russian Ministry of Defense accusing U.S. is preparing “provocations with weapons of mass-destruction” in Ukraine. The Kremlin also continues to falsely blame Ukrainian forces for planning or conducting “provocations” in areas where Russian forces intend to commit or have already committed atrocities.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Three Russian generals have been killed near Kherson, the Ukrainian ministry of defence’s intelligence directorate has said. Two on site and the third after being evac’d to a hospital. The Ukrainian military on Friday hit the command post of Russia’s 49th army near occupied regional capital Kherson, according to the statement. Unconfirmed reports was that this HQ hit yesterday was at the Kherson airport. Same airport struck last month killing a general and sr staff.

- A lot of analysis of just what a BTGs is defined as following two months of devastating losses. Not clear what are bering calling ‘BTGs’ at this point and their level of manning. Russian reinforcements are far from sufficient to replace earlier losses.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers forecast to be letting up towards the end of the 10 day forecast. This will allow some drying out of muddy, off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled to meet today with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin in Kyiv.

Air raid sirens operated through out much of Ukraine over the last 24 hours as Russia launched several waves of cruse missile attacks. Following previous pattern, the areas targeted have largely been civilian residential areas - apartment buildings and the like.

Russian ground operations were only able to make limited and localized advances. Various analysts and observers note that Russia continues to piecemeal its forces into combat across numerous locations and hasn’t concentrated them into defined zones. It is also assessed that the withdrawn units from the north have been put into combat in eastern Ukraine with very little to no consolidation or refit.

In places where Russia appears to have gained ground, some view it as Ukrainian forces conducting a tactical retreat in some areas, blowning bridges, and at the same time positioning for a counter attacks to threaten the sustainment of the Russian offensive.

The reported loss of three more Russian generals, and an unknown number of other senior officers near Kherson displays that Russia has serious OPSEC issues that haven’t been addressed. Not announced (nor expected to be) source of the intel that targeted the attack, documented unsecure comms or even good HUMINT notification are likely.

See this link for up dated map of current ground situation.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQWA7HkXsAA2NZk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Yesterday Russian troops shelled border villages in Sumy region. Damage reported to houses in Atynske and Boiaro-Lezhachi

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.

Kharkiv and the surrounding areas are faced more heavy shelling overnight. The governor of Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region says towns there are coming under constant shelling.

Ukrainian counter attacks to the east from the Kharkiv region continue to place Russian logistical lines to operations further south at risk. This is forcing Russia to divert some elements to protect against these attacks, weakening the total force for the Donbas offensive. Reports of Russian reinforcements from the Kyiv area being assigned to Kharkiv Oblast likely indicate those Russian concerns.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks from Izyum and managed to seized Lozova, approximately 100 km west of Izyum. As the map link above shows, this is a VERY road bound assault. Russian operations now appear that one of the objectives is to reach the Izyum-Debaltseve road along two or more axes to facilitate encirclement of Ukrainian forces.

Further south, Russian forces conducted limited ground offensives in Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka but did not make any significant territorial gains. Ukraine’s General Staff says Russian troops are preparing for an assault on Severodonetsk and as it was under heavy artillery assault over the last 24 hours. This city is important, the Russians and especially the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Lugansk who have been trying to take it for 3 weeks, so far with many casualties and without success.

Fighting has also been intense in other towns in the southern part of this front. Russian making small gains, but at great loss of personnel and equipment.

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
An aide to office of President of Ukraine Podolyak stated that Russian troops are attacking Azovstal non-stop. Russia has stopped several attempts (based on agreements with Russia) to evacuate civilians from the steel factory and other areas.

There is continued reports that Russia is planning on forcibly conscripting civilians in Maripol (as well as other captured towns). This has brought a warning from UK Defence Ministry.
“Any enlistment of Ukrainian civilians into the Russian armed forces, even if presented by Russia as being voluntary or military service in accordance with Russian law, would constitute a violation of article 51 of the fourth Geneva Convention”

Russia/separatist forces have had very little success pushing past the LOC in the main part of the front. Social media has confirmed that Russian forces from around Mariupol are redeploying to the vicinity of Donetsk City. It is believed that they are likely to enter combat again soon and without rest or refit.

Crimea Front -
Russia’s defense ministry says its troops have conducted a missile strike on a depot containing weapons delivered by the US and European countries to Ukrainian forces near Odessa. The FACT is these missiles hit residential apartments in the city, killing civilians. Videos show a block of flats were among the buildings hit in the strike and officials reported that Russia fired at least six cruise missiles.

Russia may be using its submarines to launch cruse missile attacks. Russians were spotted loading these onto Kilo-class submarines in Sevastopol several days ago. The Black Sea fleet may still be scared of Ukrainan anti-ship weapons and view the submarines as a less exposed target to them.

In what appears to be a rising partisan revolt to Russian occupation, residents of Kherson and Melitopol put psychological pressure on the Russian occupiers. People are making and distributing leaflets with warnings to the enemies. They remind the Russians that they are not happy and they will not stay here for long. The leaflet reads: “Russian invader, know this: Melitopol is Ukraine. Every resident of Melitopol is a partisan! Expect them!”

Russian forces continued a limited offensive in Zaporizhia Oblast but paused ground offensive operations in northern Kherson Oblast . Russian forces in the southwest around Kherson city appear to be struggling to consolidate a defensible perimeter west of the river. The units deployed there are relatively light, and under pressure. They could even be forced over time to retreat east across the Dnipro.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant reported.

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - Improving weather conditions may cause Russia to increase its attacks across the Donbas front. Russian forces will likely continue attacking southeast from Izyum, west from Kreminna and Popasna, and north from Donetsk City via Avdiivka or another axis.
Otherwise, it appears that more of the same is in store - widespread, poorly to uncoordinated Russian attacks that may gain a little terrain, but at signifiant losses of men and machines.

Russia also appears to be resuming is indiscriminate bombing/artillery of cities - urban terror of civilians.

As Russia seems to try to get a more coordinated attack together (assumed by some), Ukraine continues to benefit from western resupply efforts.

Attention is being drawn to a strategic bridge that connects Crimea to Russian mainland. It has been used heavily to haul war supplies into Crimea. Under conventional thought, it is safe from Ukraine interdiction. However Ukraine has been surprising on it innovation and may be planning an attack to disable the bridge. Something to watch for.

FINALLY, the loss of three more Russian generals and a bunch of other senior officers will put further kinks in Russian command and control. Poor communications have plagued the operation from the start and apparently they haven’t been solved. It is likely that these generals and staffs were meeting to coordinate operations. If so, those coordination of activity are gone, leaving the different groups to continue on their independent ways. It is still mind boggling that Russian has lost so many generals and senior officer in less than two months.

___________________________________

Poland -

Russian diplomats expelled by Poland were targeting Ukrainian refugees, “even in contact with them and blackmailing them with the fate of their families in Ukraine,” says a Polish official.

Ukraine & Poland will create joint logistics company to enhance railway transportation.
It is one of the points agreed by Ukrainian & Polish Prime-Ministers today during a meeting.
_____________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

Elections today in France pitting President Emanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. All of the pre-election surveys show Macron with a comfortable 10-point lead over Le Pen, but if the election comes out this way it will be a major narrowing from the last election in 2017, which Macron won over Le Pen by a 66 – 33% margin. In other words, while 2017 was a landslide, this election shows the shift in momentum in French opinion.
____________________________________

Iraq -

Turkey’s latest offensive in Iraq appears to have one objective: Sealing the remaining PKK pathway in Zap to Turkey.
This could end the 40-year-long PKK infiltrations, however, at a cost to Iraqi rights.

_________________________________

Turkey -

Turkey has closed its airspace to Russian civilian and military aircraft that transports soldiers to Syria after notifying Moscow: Turkish Foreign Minister via TRT.
OBSERVATION - Kind of a mushy ‘closure’, not a total closure.

Turkey is ready to give all possible assistance during the negotiation process between Ukraine and Russia, President Tayyip Erdogan told Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a telephone call, the Turkish presidency said on Sunday.
Erdogan said the evacuation of the wounded and civilians in Ukraine’s Mariupol must be ensured, adding that Turkey viewed the guarantor issue positively in principle.

See Iraq above on incursion.
______________________________________

Misc of Note -

Another look at the food processing site squirrel. Let’s keep this in perspective. There are about 36,486 plants in the country - even if including all the reported sites (18), this is way less than 1% .

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

BIG DAY in GGR reports as they’ve crawled out from under their rock to express goals and methodology.

On Thursday, at the globalist World Bank’s “Financing Climate Action Event” in Washington, Baron Nicholas Stern, an economist working with the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and Economics at the London School of Economics, called for stopping the sale of internal-combustion engines, which still power nearly all of the automotive vehicles in the world. He formerly served as the chief economist for the World Bank from 2000-2003. “The right kind of policies have to be put in place, including the abolition of fossil fuel subsidies, the advancement of carbon pricing, but clarity on timescales for decentralization of the grid, clarity on timescales for stopping the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles, and so on — making sure the sense of direction is clear in those ways,” Stern told the gathering.

The World Bank president David Malpass is also issuing dire warnings, with claims that we are looking at a “human catastrophe” as the World Bank calculates there will be approximately as 37% spike in food prices. Regarding the “broad and deep” price hikes, the World Bank chief said it was “affecting food of all different kinds of oils, grains, and then it gets into other crops, corn crops because they go up when wheat goes up.”

The privacy versus security debate is as “old as civilization”, historian and writer Yuval Noah Harari said recently at the Athens Democracy Forum, an annual international conference in Greece. “But there is now something new: for the first time in history, it is possible to eliminate privacy completely,” said Harari, chief advisor to the World Economic Forum’s leader, Klaus Schwab.
“It was not possible before,” said Harari, “It is now possible. A fundamental change has taken place. “Dictators always dreamt about completely eliminating privacy, monitoring everyone all the time, and knowing everything you do, and not just everything you do but everything you think, and everything you feel.”
Whether it was a tyrant in ancient Greece or Stalin, they always dreamed of it, but they could never do it because it was technically impossible. Now it’s possible, Harari told New York Times moderator Liz Alderman.

OBSERVATION - Pause and think what he revealed - he’s pleased to remove privacy - essentially equating himself (and the rest of the GGR) on the level of tyrants.

Georgia Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger has hired WEF linked Salesforce to manage a state’s voter registration roll. Salesforce is run by a Board Trustee of the World Economic Forum, Marc Benioff. He has a record of far-left actions, including threatening to move his company from Texas over its stringent abortion laws. Salesforce.com is also involved with the “New Georgia Project” and its founder Stacy Abrams.
OBSERVATION - A good question was raised - how does the GGR (WEF) control. Here is one example.
_____________________________

Wuhan virus -

See China pending new wuhan lockdowns.

On Friday’s broadcast of HBO’s “Real Time,” host Bill Maher stated that younger people “have been indoctrinated” to be needlessly anxious about the coronavirus, which has contributed to depression among that demographic.
____________________________

Economy -

Used car prices have risen 30.4% over the last year.

The extended Shanghai lockdown is morphing into a logistics disaster as trucks trickle into the city, leaving empty containers piling up at the world’s largest port. Trucking in & out of Shanghai is about half of what it was before, & the situation is deteriorating. Truckers need a 48-hr negative PCR, a host of digital codes and approvals to enter cities around Shanghai. In Suzhou, Kunshan, local govts have even barred trucks from Shanghai.
When Shanghai reopens, factories will be rushing to get goods to the ports and out, leading to higher shipping rates, and a huge rush of stuff out to other global ports. Like a bubble bursting. US/EU ports will then be overwhelmed again, like they were months before.

The demand for spot market trucking jobs is slowing down. An indicator of economic health, the decrease in labor demand points to an overall falloff in demand for goods.

______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

Mexican officials expressed concerns about the U.S. ending Title 42 authority for border removals. Mexican lawmaker Rosa Gonzalez said, “The flow of migrants we have now is already out of control.” The officials urged the DHS to speed up the process for asylum requests.
______________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

Most Americans feel as though the country is headed in the wrong direction under Biden, an AP/NORC survey released Friday found. Their view of the country’s direction is sour, as 70 percent said it is headed in the wrong direction, well into the second year of Biden’s presidency. That opinion is shared by 93 percent of Republicans, 72 percent of independents, and 49 percent of Democrats.

___________________________

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -

Spotify has decided not to renew the deal with 0bama, and they are looking elsewhere for a deal on their podcast content.

Musk twisting Twitter’s arm over take over talks. More liberal heads exploding.
__________________________________

China -

The Chinese capital Beijing has kicked off mass testing for millions of residents after a spike in Covid cases. The Chaoyang district reported 26 cases over the weekend - the highest number so far in Beijing’s latest surge.
Long queues developed outside supermarkets and shops despite government assurances there is sufficient food.
It comes amid fears that Beijing could face a similar situation to Shanghai, which has seen some 25 million people shut in their homes for weeks.

Additionally, China has been installing metal fences in front of apartments and roads to prevent residents in shanghai from leaving and escaping the containment zone.
OBSERVATION - These lockdowns will have global impacts on the supply chain and economy.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison declared on Sunday that a Chinese military base on the Solomon Islands would be an unacceptable ‘red line’, without adding how Canberra would retaliate, media reports said.
Morrison’s government and the US are scrambling to respond to a recently-signed security deal between the islands and Beijing, which they consider an ‘aggressive’ move, RT reported.
‘Working together with our partners in New Zealand and of course the United States, I share the same red line that the United States has when it comes to these issues,’ Morrison said. ‘We won’t be having Chinese military naval bases in our region on our doorstep.’
OBSERVATION - Does this indicate war? NZ and Australia will essentially need to physically prevent China from establishing a military base there.

____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.
Also watching for a military parade.
__________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 61)

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Putin has deployed Iskander-M mobile battlefield missile launchers within 40 miles of the Ukrainian border, Ukraine’s military has said. The mobile system’s two ballistic missiles have a range of up to 300 miles and can carry conventional or nuclear warheads. Though the location hasn’t been specified it is suspected that it is near the city of Belgorod which is the administrative centre of Russia’s Belgorod region, north of the border with Ukraine.
Ukrainian General Staff believes that eventually Russia wants to deploy the unit into Eastern Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Nuclear saber rattling.

RUMINT -
More Putin health concerns. Vladimir Putin looked frail and unsteady at footage purporting to be from a midnight mass for Orthodox Easter, stoking rumours surrounding the Russian president’s ailing health.
He chewed his lip and appeared unsure of his footing as he stood in Moscow’s Christ the Saviour Cathedral alongside the city’s mayor Sergei Sobyanin.
OBSERVATION - An ill putin may well have his mental facilities degrades too.

Logistics -
- The loss of the Druzhba Oil Depot to Russian tactical operations remains to be seen.

Economic Impacts -
- Russia’s airlines industry about to take another step back as Sukhoi Superjets starts to run out of key western-made parts.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers forecast to be letting up towards the end of the 10 day forecast. This will allow some drying out of muddy, off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Sec State Blinken and Sec Def Austin met with Zelensky yesterday. Blinken told Zelensky US diplomats to return to Ukraine ‘this week’ as well as promising nearly 800 million more aid..

Biden has nominated US diplomat Bridget Brink as Ambassador to Ukraine.

Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine made minor advances and missile attacks throughout most of central Ukraine targeting rail road facilities.

A suspected Ukraine missile strike took out a major petroleum facility, potentially harming Russian’s Donbas operations.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.

Ukrainian forces repelled limited Russian attacks from Izyum toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in the past 24 hours. Russian forces maintained their positions around Kharkiv city and continued to shell the surrounding area on April 24 and conducted remote mining in Korotichi (a western suburb of Kharkiv) to disrupt Ukrainian movements

Russian forces conducted several attacks around Severodonetsk, Popasna, and Marinka on April 24, securing limited gains. Russian forces made small advances around Severodonetsk, including establishing a pontoon crossing across the Krasna River west of Severodonetsk and capturing the towns of Popivka, Pischane, Zhytlivka, and Kreminna northwest of Rubizhne. Russia is attempting to reinforce operations around Izyum.

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Russia announced a unilateral ceasefire at Azovstal in Mariupol. If Russian follows previous patterns, this ceasefire will be cancelled unexpectedly and any civilians who do try to make it out will be rounded up and taken to Russian ‘camps’ for filtration.
There are reports that Russia is setting up for another assualt on the Azovstal facility, contrary to their public statements. Russia has maintained artillery and bombing of the facility.

Russian forces are conducting assaults north from Melitopol toward Hulyaipole, 80km east of Zaporizhzhia, and have advanced 10km in the past week. Russian forces, including units from Mariupol, likely to attempt to drive north into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to encircle Ukrainian forces. It is not certain that these depleted units will be successful in this effort.

Crimea Front -
Russian army deployed big amount of equipment and military at Velyka Novosilka - Novodarivka - Malynivka frontline and attempting to advance towards Zaporizhzhia. This axis is seen as supporting the southern pincer of the Donbas offensive.

Ukrainian Armed Forces restored control over 5 settlements of the Mykolaiv region. Meanwhile, Russian forces withdrew to Chornobaivka, a suburb of Kherson city.

Residents of Kherson trying to leave the city before the ‘referendum’ (as honest at the Crimea one) but Russian troops not letting anyone out. This ‘referendum’ is to declare Kherson Oblast an independent republic as did Crimea, and the Donbas separatists. Such a ‘referendum’ would also ‘permit’ forced conscription of military aged men.
NOTE - This city fell to Russian forces with the early surrender by the pro-Russia mayor. There is considerable anti-Russian sentiment by even the “pro-Russia” population. Interesting contrast.

Localized fighting continued in northern Kherson Oblast and west of Kherson city. No signifcant change of terrain for either side.

Western Ukraine -
Missile strikes throughout the region, with five railway stations hit by missiles, including one in Krasne, near Lviv, where a facility handling the power supply to overhead lines was struck.
OBSERVATION - This is after Blinken’s visit to Kyiv - he travelled via rail.

Russian Territory -
Two massive explosions hit the Druzhba Oil Depot and an oil storage facility at the 120th arsenal of the Main Rocket and Artillery Directorate both ing ht town of Bryansk, Russia, located about 105km from the Ukrainian border. It is suspected that two Ukrainian fired two Tochka-U tactical ballistic missiles, though Ukraine is neither confirming or denying it. Photographic evidence several hours after the strike show the Druzhba tank farm nearly totally destroyed.

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - Russian forces will likely continue attacking southeast from Izyum, west from Kreminna and Popasna, and north from Donetsk City via Avdiivka or another axis. They may locally make small gains but it doesn’t appear that any major break out is pending.

Russia response to the missile strike on Bryansk is yet to be seen. However, I expect Lyiv to be targeted just like it was after the sinking of the Moskva. Ukraine taking the fight into adjacent Russian territory, and the ease they have so far, must be giving Russian planners fits. Ukraine has been careful in their planning and execution of these strikes so far. Russia now has to face diverting assets from the Donbas offensive to provide protection - like ADA assets - to these previously thought to be ‘safe’ locations. Bryansk is also due north of the region Russia evacuated (Chernihv), giving Ukraine greater freedom to move these long range assets around without interference.

Russia is pushing for ‘referendums ‘ in captured territories, a move designed to provide putin some sort of ‘victory’ to celebrate on May 9th. It is widely expected these ‘referendums’ are simply bogus as previous ones, and putin will seek to use them as leverage in any future peace talks.

Continued pressure on the defenders trapped in the Azovstal facility with no relief in sight.

With newer and more lethal arms coming into Ukraine, Russia will be forced to address interdiction efforts in a greater way. Yesterday’s rail road strikes is one way, but only temporary. It is suspected that the movement of Iskander-M’s into the theater and even Ukraine itself may be a precursor to threaten western resupply efforts. One scenario would involve an Iskander strike on a position / facility likely in Lviv, near the Polish border, as a warning shot. I find it unlikely at the stage that putin would order a strike against a NATO nation. He has his hands full with just Ukraine and expanding it would not be the smartest thing to do.
___________________________________

Poland -

Polish Ambassador to the United States Marek Magierowski said his country would not recognize Russian territorial gains in Ukraine.

_____________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

President Emanuel Macron won reelection over Marine Le Pen but with by a smaller margin than previous election.

Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg said he doesn’t support Ukraine joining the European Union. He believes Ukraine and several Balkan states should be in a separate category for economic cooperation.

____________________________________

Israel -

Israeli army says one rocket fired from Lebanon at northern Israel landed near Shlomi. No damage caused In response , Israeli army Artillery forces targeted the source of the launch in Lebanon with artillery fire. It adds that “infrastructure” was also hit. The rocket landed near the northern town of Matzuva, and caused no damage or injuries.

OBSERVATION - Rocket source one of the affiliated Hamas groups. Israel’s careful response designed not to anger Hezebollah or draw them into the ongoing strife.
____________________________________

Iran -

Asaluyeh, southern Iran Workers of Hengam petrochemical are on strike protesting poor working conditions. Bushehr, southern Iran Workers of a local steel factory are on strike in support of the petrochemical workers’ protests and strike.
OBSERVATION - Economic conditions are still very poor and the population is angry.

Iran calls for new meeting in Vienna to discuss nuclear deal. Iran is playing the west like a fiddle and without strong pushback and leadership, will continue to do so.

__________________________________

Iraq -

6 rockets targeted a Turkish military base near Sheikhan approaches in Mosul governorate. Likely PKK Kurds striking back against Turkish forces.

_________________________________

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

Still keeping this on the radar screen. The WHO is attempting to push through changes to a treaty that would give them global control over health worldwide. This helps fulfill some of the goals of the WEF’s Great Reset. It is a massive power grab that takes away a nation’s sovereign rights to determine its own health standards.
A decision will be made by vote on May 22-28 at WHO World Health Assembly. Two-thirds of the US Senate does not have to vote for it.

_____________________________

Wuhan virus -

Pfizer indicated in their documents that have been released that 100 micrograms of Moderna’s mRNA vaccine is enough to damage a person’s immune system. This is in line with the statistics and data coming out showing those who have taken these shots are suffering from immune system degradation, or VAIDS (vaccine-induced acquired immunodeficiency syndrome.)
The recent batch of Pfizer documents released by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), found that the company actually knew the COVID “vaccine” of its fellow Big Pharma company, Moderna, can damage the immune system.
However, Pfizer also knew that their shots also caused immunosuppression.

OBSERVATION - Pfizer and Moderna have exemption from lawsuits for its wuhan jabs. IIRC, this exemption can be voided if the company has committed fraud. Burying these adverse results could constitute fraud.

A strange outbreak of severe hepatitis in young children has been reported in the U.S. and Europe, puzzling public health officials. The children were tested for common hepatitis viruses, but they were not to blame, leaving the cause unknown.
In a news release, Graham Cooke, a professor of infectious diseases at Imperial College London, suggested that if the hepatitis was caused by COVID-19, “it would be surprising not to see it more widely distributed across the country given the high prevalence of (COVID-19) at the moment.”
Potential links to COVID-19 injections appear not to have been widely explored yet, even though the shots have been previously associated with the development of hepatitis. British health officials did state, however, that none of the affected children had received a COVID-19 shot. However, there are links to the jab and hepatitis. A Journal of Hepatology paper noted that seven additional cases of suspected immune-mediated hepatitis have been reported following COVID-19 shots Researchers have uncovered innate immune suppression triggered by COVID-19 shots and other disturbances that could cause liver disease.

OBSERVATION - Developing story I noted earlier. Some believe the lockdown/isolation removed basic immunological development in kids through build up of resistance from general interaction (ie playing).
____________________________

Economy -

The Colorado River, which is experiencing persistent drought, provides water to 40 million Americans and 5.5 million acres of farmland in the American Southwest. Lack of irrigation water has led farmers to forgo planting large swathes of their land. With conditions expected to worsen, food prices and availability will continue to be affected.
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

The Biden administration has been temporarily barred by a federal judge from ending the pandemic health policy known as Title 42 on May 23. The move delays what Homeland Security officials predicted would prompt an unprecedented rush of migrants to the U.S.-Mexico border and is a major win for the three Republican states that brought the lawsuit in early April, which 18 other states have since joined.
The lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana. Judge Robert Summerhays announced a temporary restraining order in the case Monday, calling on the Department of Justice and states to work out the details in continuing the policy.

OBSERVATION - This is a temporary order but a win of one battle of the war. However, biden will likely ignore any lower level judge and follow its transjectory of removing the ban pending an eventual appeal to the appeal to the USSC.

______________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

biden administration concerned twitter will allow Trump to have his account back.
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

Still seeing a lot of low rumblings over concerns that biden will initiate a false flag event of some kind before the midterm in order to affect those elections to maintain democrat power. Threat remains amorphous.
___________________________________

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -

Twitter board accepts Musk’s offer. More liberal heads exploding.
Twitter locked down the ability of its employees to make changes to the platform after it was revealed that @elonmusk has reached a deal to buy the company. The lockdown is to prevent activist employees from sabotaging the platform as revenge for the deal.

__________________________________

China -

US officials say that the US won’t rule out military action if China establishes base in Solomon Islands.

____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

North Korea held a highly-expected military parade on Monday. That’s according to the country’s state media. It marks the 90th anniversary of the founding of its military. North Korea says columns of “latest tactical missile units,” tanks, columns of “strategic missiles,” a column of “super-large MLRS capable of “successive strike” and others were rolled out as well, along with Hwasong-17 ICBM. Kim Jong Un in a speech given at the parade vowed to bolster his nuclear capability at “maximum speed.”

OBSERVATION - May seem trivia, but such parades provide western intelligence with insight to NK tactical and strategic weapons development.
__________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 62)

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Russia continues to rattle the nuclear saber. At this stage, 62 days into the war, the threatening effects have worn off and NATO/West is accelerating the quantity and types of equipment being sent to Ukraine, including aircraft.

Siberian wildfires are burning unchecked because Russian military units which usually fight them are at war.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers forecast to be letting up towards the end of the 10 day forecast. This will allow some drying out of muddy, off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

RUMINT -
Some of the pro-Russian Luhansk, Ukraine “LHR” leadership gathered for a meeting with their collaborator “Mayor” and there was a gas explosion. And they are all dead.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Action in the Donbas region are in a state of general status quo. Russians stage attacks, in some cases gaining a limited amount of territory or repulsed. Attacks largely constrained to road network. Ukraine conducts selective counter attacks regaining territory and strikes against exposed Russian units and logistical convoys. Overall, Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine took little to no additional territory overnight.

Russian forces resumed ground attacks against Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant in addition to intensive bombing assaults.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.

Russian forces maintained their positions around Kharkiv city and continued artillery and aviation strikes on Kharkiv city and the surrounding settlements.

Russian forces continued to mount unsuccessful ground offensives southward from Izyum toward Barvinkove and Slovyansk. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults against Koroviy Yar and Rubizhne and that fighting is ongoing in Popasna.

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

Russian troops continue to shell Azovstal in Mariupol and have launched ground attacks again. Russian artillery continues to inflict massive damage on civilian infrastructure in areas of Mariupol that are already under Russian control.
Continuation of ground attacks will deny Russia the forces necessary to reinforce the Donbas campaign.

Third mass grave found 5 km from Mariupol in the village Staryi Krym. The first excavated trenches in the cemetery near Staryi Krym appeared on March 24, after the village was occupied by the Russian military.

Russian troops using a Su-24 aircraft, tanks, GRAD MLRS, howitzers, 120 mm mortars and large-caliber machine guns attacked following cities: Novodanylivka, Kamyanske, Pavlivka, Orikhiv, Novoandriyivka, Huliaipole, Charivne, Huliaipilske, Vremivka, Novosilka, Poltavka, Volne Pole, Zaliznychne, Uspenivka, and Belogorye. This is a continuation of heavy artillery preparation along the LOC for any northward push out of separatist held territory towards forces attempting to push southward from the Khariv front.

Crimea Front -

Russia conducted limited attacks west toward Mykolaiv and north toward Kryvyi Rih . Overall, though, Ukraine is maintaining the initiative through effective counter attacks.

Russian missile strike hit bridge over Dniester at Liman in Odesa region. This is a key bridge connecting parts of Ukraine divided by the Dnister. Its destruction will impact support from Ukrainian forces west of Odesa.

Western Ukraine -
Yesterdays attacks on railroad infrastructure continue to be cleaned up, but Russia hasn’t followed this up.

Russian Territory -
Ukrainian artillery has stepped up its cross border attacks on Russia. Overnight, damage was reported in three cities - Golovchino, Otradnoe village of Belgorod region as result of shelling
Shells landed near Otradnoe and Nekhoteevka, all villages in Belgorod region of Russia.

OBSERVATION - No real news on if the artillery impacts any real military associated targets. If not, what is the purpose of these attacks?

Follow up - Some Ukraine sources are saying that the attack on fuel tanks in the Russian city of Bryansk, were carried out with TB2 Bayraktar. and the TB2 that was shot down while returning to Ukraine immediately after the attack.

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - More of the same. Russia launches many , uncoordinated attacks into the Donbas region and face limited to no success rate while losing a lot of men and equipment. We are weeks now into this redirection and focus on the Donbas and Russia still shows difficulties organizing a much larger operaton than it is currently conducting.

Heavy artillery/air barrages along the LOC with the separatist region are still considered to be a precursor to an attempted major offensive to the north to encircle the Donbas region and any Ukraine forces there. Russia ground forces in this area have been underperforming so far and reinforcements from Mariupol have questionable combat readiness or capability.

Speaking of Mariupol, seeing Russian resumption of ground assaults into the steel plant complex. Russian calculations must indicate that Ukraine holdouts have more resources than they initially thought and siege warfare won’t work.

Russia has done little to stop/impede the flow of supplies to support Ukraine’s war effort. It seems Russia cannot work an effective interdiction plan while trying to capture Donbas. In many ways, Ukraine is in better shape now than they were two months ago. On the flip side, Russia has to rely on more unreliable war reserves.

The Transnistria events pose a interesting question of actions/responses. The separatist/Russian forces in Transnistria are unlikely to attack into Ukraine, but possibly into Moldova, raising potential conflict with Romania.
___________________________________

Moldova/Transnistria -

Added this category in proximity to the above Russia and Ukraine sections because of the apparent link to the actions there. Events here are developing rapidly.

What the heck is happening in the Moldovan region of Transnistria! Overnight, Russian Media reported that Special Forces in the Moldovan Break-Away Region of Transnistria have been put on “High Alert” to Counter Threats from Foreign and Domestic Groups, this comes after explosions have been reported in 2 Major Cities in the Region, Parcani ( at a military unit/base) and Tiraspol (Ministry of State Security building). Additionally, two significant radio/cell towers were attacked. In breaking - there are unconfirmed reports that another “explosion” occurred in the Tiraspol , Transnistria at a Russian military airfield this morning.

The so-called Security Council of Transnistria reportedly called these events “terrorist attacks”. Russian backed separatists controlling Transnistria have announced that they’re “going to announce important decisions regarding the security of the country”

Locals are already panicking with traffic jams at “checkpoints” between Russian backed separatist in controlled “Transnistria” and Moldova , as people begin to flee Transnistria”.

Moldova’s President is convening the country’s “defense council” over the incidents in the regime controlled Transnistria region of Moldova.

The overnight chatter speculated on who was behind these attacks. 1) Ukraine special forces 2) Russian ‘False Flag” and 3) Moldovan elements.

Hard to say at this stage, however a “false flag” is leading in my opinion. Almost certainly a false flag like in Donetsk and Luhansk that helped with pretexts to invade Ukraine, this time it may give pretexts to their goals of taking Transnistria in Moldova after going through Odesa in southern Ukraine

Let’s put this in context, just last week Russia indicated that the Russian Phase 2 is a land bridge encompassing all of southern Ukraine to the Transnistria region of Moldova. The Moldovan Bureau of Reintegration believes that the explosions in the building of the local Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol (Transnistria) are “a pretext for creating tension in the Transnistrian region” and an excuse for further intervention by Russia. Moldova has long been concerned Russia could stage provocations as an excuse for further intervention.

Serious questions surround any Russian intervention
1. Pro-Russian Transnistria forces are only a few thousand locals that are assessed as being poorly trained and equipped. As such, they are assessed as unlikely to be utilized to join the fight in Ukraine.
2. Deeply engaged in southeastern Ukraine, what forces do Russia have that can affect any intervention? Two recent developments may shed light. FIrst, the Russian destruction of the bridge over Dniester, restricting east-west transfer of troops and the availability of amphibious forces. Some speculate Russian troops could land in that area southwest of Odessa, with assistance of Russian “peacekeeping” brigade in Transnistria. Any landing would be strongly resisted with bolstered Ukrainan anti ship missile systems.
3. Moldova proper doesn’t have the military force to recapture the Transnistria region. If supported by more Russian forces, separatists could take more land from Moldova.

Should Russia open this new ‘front’, the risk of greater NATO involvement increases as Moldova has deep ties to Romania. Barring huge Ukraine misjudgment, the Russian amphibious forces would be seriously mauled and combat effectiveness questionable. Resupply by water would be tenuous, Russia would be forced to use airfields in Transnistria to supply logistics.

Overall, not sure how this is going to play out. Definitely Russia is looking to pull in forces from Transnistria in some manner. However, Russian forces are very stretched thinly dealing with the Donbas offensive making any kind of combat actions initiated via an amphibious assault or even air lift of troops into Transnistria, very risky with little chance of success. Russian media reported this morning that the Russian government ‘would like to avoid a scenario in which Moscow would have to intervene’ in Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region.

Where the greatest risk rises is intervention by Romania to protect Romanian speaking citizens (the same excuse Russia uses), bringing Russia now into direct confrontation with NATO via Article 5.
___________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

Two newspapers - one Swedish, the other Finnish - have reported the governments of Sweden and Finland have agreed to submit NATO applications at the same time and that it will happen in the middle of next month.

NATO warships arrived at a Finnish port for training exercises.

Defence ministers from 40 countries to meet today in Rammstein to discuss arming Ukraine

Germany will authorize the delivery of tanks to Ukraine, govt. source tells AFP, in what would be a clear switch in Berlin’s policy on military backing for Kyiv.

____________________________________

Israel -

Continued Palestinian unrest in the West Bank combined with tensions that rocket fire will resume from Gaza.
____________________________________

________________________________

Wuhan virus -

Before omicron, one-third of Americans had been infected with the coronavirus, but by the end of February, that rate had climbed to nearly 60 percent — including about 75 percent of kids and 60 percent of people age 18 to 49, according to federal health data released Tuesday.

The data from blood tests offers the first evidence that over half the U.S. population, or 189 million people have been infected at least once since the pandemic began — double the number reflected in official case counts. Officials cautioned, however, that the data, in a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, does not indicate people have protection against the virus going forward, especially against increasingly transmissible variants.
“We continue to recommend that everyone be up to date on their vaccinations, get your primary series and booster, when eligible,” CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said during a media briefing.

OBSERVATION - Evidence that CDC records are purposefully messed up and further condemnation of the jab. The ‘get your jab’ mantra is falling on increasingly deaf ears since it is pretty well established that they don’t work.

A team of researchers from health agencies in Finland, Denmark, Sweden, and Norway found that rates of myocarditis and pericarditis, two forms of potentially life-threatening heart inflammation, were higher in those who had received one or two doses of either mRNA-based vaccine – Pfizer’s or Moderna’s. From the JAMA document -

“Question Is SARS-CoV-2 messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccination associated with risk of myocarditis?
- Findings In a cohort study of 23.1 million residents across 4 Nordic countries, risk of myocarditis after the first and second doses of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines was highest in young males aged 16 to 24 years after the second dose. For young males receiving 2 doses of the same vaccine, data were compatible with between 4 and 7 excess events in 28 days per 100 000 vaccinees after second-dose BNT162b2, and between 9 and 28 per 100 000 vaccinees after second-dose mRNA-1273.
- Meaning The risk of myocarditis in this large cohort study was highest in young males after the second SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose, and this risk should be balanced against the benefits of protecting against severe COVID-19 disease.”

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2791253

OBSERVATION - It will be nearly impossible for peer reviewed studies to be stopped at this stage of the wuhan infestation. What to expect are studies like this to be buried under more ‘pressing’ news like the Ukraine war.

____________________________

Economy -
The California legislature is going to miss a May 1 deadline to kill the annual summer increase in its 51-cent gas tax , Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office said.
The increase goes against Newsom’s January promise to motorists that he would suspend any tax increases given that the state pays the highest amount in the nation, both in taxes and per gallon. Currently, the average price to fill up is $5.69, according to AAA .

OBSERVATION - Remember, Kalifoirnians has the opportunity to remove a major gas tax, but didn’t. You get what you vote for. . . . .
______________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

quadruple jabbed harris has wuhan. . . . .
___________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

It is being reported that it will be years before Raytheon Technologies can build new Stinger shoulder-fired missiles due to a dwindling supply of weapons parts, the company’s CEO said Tuesday.
The U.S. has shipped Stingers to Ukraine’s military, which has used them to shoot down Russian aircraft. But there’s only a finite supply as Raytheon has not made Stinger missiles for the U.S. military in nearly two decades.
“We’re going to have to go out and redesign some of the electronics in the missile and the seeker head,” Raytheon Technologies CEO Greg Hayes told investment analysts Tuesday during the company’s quarterly earnings call. “That’s going to take us a little bit of time.”

OBSERVATIONS - Concerns are being raised over the depletion of war stockpiles of this and other munitions, like the Javelin ATGM system.

_________________________________

China -

The USS Sampson transited the Taiwan Straits, drawing China’s ire.
____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is designed primarily to deter aggression, but if necessary, it “will have to decisively accomplish its unexpected second mission,” Kim Jong Un said in a speech in Pyongyang on Monday night.
Kim did not elaborate on this “second mission,” but he appeared to be suggesting that his Stalinist regime does not rule out the possibility of a pre-emptive first strike under certain circumstances.

S Korean president reportedly spoke to the need for SK to develop systems to counter NK missiles and restore a military balance to deter NK aggressions.

__________________________________

Japan -

A Chinese Navy ship has entered Japan’s waters near the Kagoshima Prefecture islands according to Kyodo. The Japanese government lodged a protest with China through diplomatic means in response. The Chinese survey ship entered into Japanese territorial waters at 11pm Tuesday from west of Kuchinoerabu Island and left the waters south of Yakushima Island at 2:10am on Wednesday. It’s the first intrusion confirmed by the Defense Ministry since last November.

____________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 63)

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
Putin met with UN secretary general António Guterres in the Kremlin in the room with the long table. Putin says Russia won’t sign a peace deal with Ukraine unless it first agrees to “solve the issues of Crimea and Donbas” at least on the working level, meaning accepting losing those parts of its territory for good.

During a Tuesday interview with state media, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, said that if the U.S. and other Western allies of Ukraine continue to provide the country with weapons, the risk of the war escalating into a nuclear conflict “should not be underestimated.” Lavrov said that by providing weapons to Ukraine, NATO nations were already “in essence engaged in war with Russia.”
OBSERVATION - Continued threats against the nations providing arms to Ukraine. It is hard to conceive the Russia will actually use a nuke at this stage of the war. To do so would ensure NATO direct involvement and start WW3.

Logistics -
- Ukraine appears to be settling in to attacking Russian facilities near its border.

Economic Impacts -
- Gazprom reports that it had completely suspended gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland due to non-payment in rubles
- The Ruble has been able to recover from drop in value from the initial invasion of Ukraine.
____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying..

RUMINT -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian tactics in the Izyum region (Khariv front) are showing evidence of better organization and coordination of attacks along with increased deployment of Russian combat units into the battle. Widespread Russian missile strikes across the central and western Ukraine to disrupt resupply efforts. Heavy artillery bombardments of areas adjacent to the LOC in southern Ukraine.

In the last 24 hours, Russian troops shelled Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kherson, and Odesa oblasts.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Russian troops shelled Esman community in Sumy region.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.

Russian forces continued to shell the entire frontline in Donetsk and Luhansk and made marginal advances during ground offensives. Along the line from Izyum to Rubizhne, Russian troops are pushing down multiple roughly parallel roads within supporting distance of one another, allowing them to bring more combat power to bear than their previous tactics had supported. This has resulted in better results and territory gained over that last 24 hours than seen since the start of the war. Russian forces are moving slowly and in a methodic manner in these regions and no evidence of a significant breakout at this stage.

Russians sent two battalion tactical groups to the city of Izyum. They also deployed two missile divisions of OTRK “Iskander-M” . Russian troops captured the outskirts of the settlement of Velyka Komyshuvakha, took control of the Zavody and conducted offensive operations in the direction of Barvinkovo. Russian troops have established control over Novotoshkivske, and conducting an offensive in the direction of Nizhne and Orikhovo

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

Russian forces are continuing to attack the Azovstal steelworks, where fighters and some civilians are holed up, an aide to the city’s mayor says. US officials say that Russia “still very focused” on Mariupol and has not moved 12 battalion tactical groups out.
There is also evidence that there are pockets in the city still under the control of Ukraine forces still executing strikes against the Russians.

Russian army fired along the LOC in the directions of Chervone, Pavlivka, Vremivka, Novopil, Mali Shcherbaki, Privilne, Orikhiv, Gulyaypole, Kamyanske, Novodanilivka with the use of a tank, GRAD MLRS, howitzers, 120 mm mortars and machine guns

Russian independent news outlet Meduza reported that local residents reported multiple explosions lasting several hours at an ammunition depot in the town of Irmino, under Russian occupation since 2014.

Crimea Front -

Russian forces continued to shell the entire line of contact on the Southern Axis and are carrying out ground offensives in the direction of Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih. There are reports that Russian forces suffered losses in the towns of Novodmytrivka and Bilousove, both within 20 kilometers of the Kherson-Mykolaiv administrative border.

Ukrainian forces have reportedly been preparing defenses in Zaporizhzhia in preparation for a potential Russian attack from the south.

Russian missiles hit Odesa, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv. Russian also targeted with a missile strike for a second time a bridge over Dniester at Liman in Odesa region. This is a key bridge connecting parts of Ukraine divided by the Dnister. Its destruction will impact support from Ukrainian forces west of Odesa - see discussion under “OUTLOOK”

Western Ukraine -
Russia’s defense ministry said its Kalibr missiles hit an arms depot in Zaporizhzhia and 58 other targets overnight

Russian Territory -
Military warehouses caught fire and exploded at Staraya Nelidovka village of Belgorod region

Governor of Kursk region says air defense worked overnight in region, reportedly shooting down a Ukrainian TB2 drone.
Missile launch observed this morning near Valuyki, Belgorod region. Possible air defense missile.

Explosions this morning in Voronezh, Russia, possibly due to air defense. Small drone was destroyed over Voronezh this morning - Governor of the region. It is over 250kms to non-occupied parts of Ukraine to Voronezh. Voronezh hosts a Russian airbase “Baltimor” with Su-34 fighter-bombers.

Dnipropetrovsk region. Reports Ukrainians fired on the Zelenodolsk community
Russian air defense reportedly targeted an object over Belgorod at 3:35 am

OBSERVATION - These pin prick strikes into Russian areas near the Ukraine border is forcing Russia to divert attention and resources to secure areas it previously considered secure. It is a big region needing additional protections and there are a lot of gaps that Ukraine can exploit.

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - Russian forces have ramped up offensive operations in the Izyum to Rubizhne region. Though still mostly road bound, Russia has been able to start multiple lines of mutually supporting attacks that may seriously threaten the northern flank of the Donbas region. Relatively dry conditions for the next several days will favor Russian operations. This is the most significant threat Russia has been able to develop since the start of the war.

The southern pincer of the Donbas offensive is still spinning its wheels. Areas along the LOC continue to receive heavy artillery/bombing to soften Ukraine defenses. A likely contributor is that BTGs are still tied up in Mariupol due to resumed combat to clear out the steel plant.

Raising a red flag on further analysis on the damage to the bridge at Liman. This isolates a pocket of Ukraine bordered on the southwest by Romania, northwest by Moldova and an inlet of the Black Sea to the northeast. An amphibious operation against this pocket could make a quick run towards Moldova while Ukraine troops in the region are essentially cut off from reinforcements from the Odesa region. See on this link

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2022/4/27/3f71cd44-5d1e-4421-ac68-1b8d32012424.png

This potential landing site is heavily covered by Ukraine forces, but because it is now essentially cut off from the Odea region, there is a possibility that Russian may be able to concentrate enough combat forces to force a landing that could connect to Transnistria and provide an end around to encircle Odesa from the west while Russian renew their eastward push from the vicinity of Kherson. The two motorized rifle battalions Russia has illegally maintained in Transnistria since the end of the Cold War are not likely sufficient to mount a credible attack on Odesa by themselves, nor are the Russians likely to be able to reinforce them enough to allow them to do so. They could support more limited attacks to the northwest of Odesa, or push south to support an amphibious assault.

Need to monitor this option more closely. Currently there is no evidence of an impending amphibious operation and Russia has its hands full in Donbas and may not have he ability to support this kind of operation until Donbas is resolved.

Ukraine has adjacent regions of Russia responding to its attacks, and I expect more select targets of opportunity such as other petroleum and munitions storage facilities. May well spread to key rail lines providing support to the northern Donbas offensive. These attacks have the Russia people jumpy and are forcing authorities to get resources diverted to protect them.

Finally, there are indications that Russian forces intend to hold referenda to establish “people’s republics” in occupied areas of southern Ukraine raising the possibility that Putin intends to unveil an array of new “independent” “people’s republics” as part of a Victory Day celebration.
___________________________________

Moldova/Transnistria -

Events here are developing rapidly.

Border Checkpoints from Transnistria into Moldova are continuing to be packed by people fleeing from what is being seen as a possible coming War in the Region, Due to Heightened Moldovan Security Measures crossing into Moldova is getting much more difficult.

Russian-backed separatists in Transnistria, say shots were fired from Ukraine overnight towards a village that houses a large ammunition depot in the region.

Residents of the unrecognized “Transnistrian Moldavian Republic” received fake SMS from ostensibly Ukraine’s armed forces, warning of a “missile and artillery” strike.

OBSERVATION - The attacks are considered to be false flag attacks . Developing situation may result in Putin recognizing the self-styled Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) in Transnistria as he recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. The PMR could then ask for additional Russian protection, and Putin could attempt to send some additional forces or capabilities to Transnistria. How he would do this would have to rely on airlift into Russian controlled airfields in Transnistria or a more dangerous gamble of an amphibious operation to link the region to the Black Sea. Such would expand Russians conflict to Moldova and possible neighboring Romania, making chances for NATO involvement increase even higher.
___________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

Gazprom confirms its cut gas to Poland and Bulgaria, citing nonpayment, per Reuters wire. Threats going out to other EU countries of the same.
____________________________________

Israel -
Israeli air strikes targeted a Hezbollah weapons shipment at a military airport south of Damascus.

Intense clashes between Israelis and Palestinians after Israeli police storm the Jenin Refugee Camp, calls for citizens to come to the camp to “defend it”.

____________________________________

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is creating a “Disinformation Governance Board” to control narratives combat whatever they deem ‘misinformation’ before the 2022 midterms and beyond. According to Politico, the new entity will focus on ‘misinformation related to homeland security, focused specifically on irregular migration and Russia.” It will be headed by executive director Nina Jankowicz, a socialist who’s spent her time disseminating false narrative on a number of subjects - like hunter biden’s laptop was a russian plant - a story destroyed by current revelations.
OBSERVATION - ALL HAIL THE Ministry of Truth. The scope of the board is yet to be announced, but there should be no doubt that Jankowicz could use this role to suppress free speech on U.S. social media platforms under the guise of a counter-propaganda effort.

Probably mentioned before but worth repeating. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has pounced on the opportunity by pushing its plan for nations to curb their oil use. IEA calling for energy “lockdowns” and radical measures such as banning the use of private cars in cities on Sundays. Other measures proposed in the agency’s “A 10-Point Plan to Cut Oil Use” include reducing speed limits, working from home, cutting business air travel, and imposing an SUV “tax.”
OBSERVATION - The ease that the wuhan emergency was applied, now global warming cultists are plotting the same thing.

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss called for a “Global NATO,” citing security situations in Europe and in Asia. “We also reject the false choice between Euro-Atlantic security and Indo-Pacific security. In the modern world we need both, a global NATO,” Truss said. She continued, “NATO must have a global outlook, ready to tackle global threats. We need to pre-empt threats in the Indo-Pacific, working with our allies like Japan and Australia to ensure the Pacific is protected.”
OBSERVATION - The GGR will need muscle projected globally.
_____________________________

Economy -

Here it comes - the U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter, as GDP fell at a 1.4% annualized rate. This comes after an increase of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. Now we have to contend with economic contraction in addition to the soaring inflation.
OBSERVATION - I’m still holding to my concerns that this fall the ‘perfect storm’ scenario may hit - in time for democrats to corrupt the midterms in their favor.

Deutsche Bank continues its warnings as on Tuesday, its team of economists wrote in a report to clients, which was titled “Why the coming recession will be worse than expected,” “We will get a major recession.”

______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

Homeland Security chief Alejandro Mayorkas on Wednesday defended the Biden administration’s handling of the border crisis; he also specified that DHS doled out $72 million to shut down construction of former President Donald Trump’s signature border wall. “We inherited a broken and dismantled system that is already under strain,” Mayorkas said during a hearing before the House Appropriations DHS Subcommittee hearing on Wednesday. “Only Congress can fix it.”
OBSERVATION - Mayorkas causes bile to rise.
______________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

Alleged Vice President Kamala Harris is taking a medication indicated only for high-risk COVID-19 sufferers, according to one source. Dr. Marty Makary, a Johns Hopkins professor of medicine, says he’s “surprised to learn” that Harris is taking Paxlovid, “a drug reserved for high-risk patients.”

OBSERVATION - Her ‘treatment’ is raising various flags from being sicker than announced to special treatment.

___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

Mayorkas testified in the House Homeland Security Committee today that “domestic violent extremism” was the greatest terrorist threat facing the American people in the American homeland.

OBSERVATION - Continuing the trend from the 0bama administration, the swamp is intensifying its focus to call any and all political opponents domestic terrorists.

Murders of police officers rose by nearly 60% during 2021, amid a wider rise in violent crime across the US, according to FBI Director Christopher Wray.
‘
OBSERVATION - Continued aftershocks from the 2019 riots and defund the police efforts.
___________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

OBSERVATIONS - Concerns are being raised over the depletion of war stockpiles of this and other munitions, like the Javelin ATGM system.
_________________________________

Cyber Warfare -

Russian officials are expecting a “major cyber provocation” from the West. “The Kiev regime, the US and the West, including NATO and EU institutions, collectively have started preparations for a major cyber provocation,” according to Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.

OBSERVATION - Russia has increased probing of U.S. networks and cyber targets, possibly in preparation of an attack - a “component of lightning” fast strikes - as announced by putin.
_________________________________

China -

The USS Sampson transited the Taiwan Straits, drawing China’s ire.

According to Lin Wen-huang, from Taiwan’s joint operations department they are “Taking into account the lessons of the Russia-Ukraine war, the military will continue to forge ahead on improving the use of asymmetric warfare, cognitive warfare, information and electronic warfare operations, and use of reserves and full strength of the nation,” for any future conflict with China.
____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.
__________________________________

Japan -

Chinese navy ship entered Japan waters near Kagoshima Pref. islands.

____________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 64)

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

In a direct threat to the West Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged “lightning” fast strikes on any nation that “interferes” with Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“If anyone ventures to intervene from the outside and [pose] unacceptable threats of a strategic nature to Russia, they should know that our counter-retaliatory strikes will take place with lightning speed,” he said. Putin added, “We have all the tools for this — such that no one else can boast of right now. And we won’t brag — we’ll use them if needed,” emphasizing that “everyone should know about it. All decisions in this regard have already been made.”

Russian state TV is raging about WWIII and an inevitable escalation over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Citizens are being primed to believe that even the worst outcome is a good thing, because those dying for the Motherland will skyrocket to paradise. Secretary of Russian Security Council Patrushev urged local authorities in southern Russia to prepare bomb shelters

OBSERVATION - Russian media is going hyper about an impending nuclear war with NATO and have sculpted the Ukrainan war from a ‘special operation to an all out war against the west. This has created all kinds of speculation that they are trying to prepare the population for a significant escalation of the Ukraine war in coming weeks. Linked to this is speculation that putin will try to make May 9th “Victory Day” on which the ‘special military operation’ is officially framed as a ‘war’” and Putin demands national mobilization for a longer conflict.

Again, this is serious SPECULATION by various Russian observers/analysts.
I’m not sure how far down the rabbit hole to follow this. Russian media is controlled by the Kremlin / putin so what they are saying reflects what they want said. They did similar in the lead up to the Ukraine invasion. I suspect that this is primarily directed to the west to deter further support to Ukraine, as I suspect that there is still skepticism from the greater Russian population over this propaganda pretending to be news. Hold over from the Soviet era.

Logistics -
- Wrecked Kremlin equipment now amounts to 939 tanks, 185 planes, 155 helicopters, 421 artillery units and eight ships. BTW - I don’t know where they got their ship estimate from. I can only finger four or five ships, two sunk and up to three seriously damaged.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Current estimate if Russia deaths are at approximately 22,400 Russian soldiers. Rough estimate of wounded would be in the range of 66,000-88,000

Economic Impacts -
- Russian users of AliExpress are suddenly unable to pay for their orders via Russian credit/debit cards.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying..

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian forces made minor but steady advances both from Izyum and in continued assaults along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine. These attacks are simple frontal assaults on Ukraine positions, lacking maneuver. They result in high casualties and losses. To support these assaults, Russia has been increasing the concentration of artillery assets to prepare the objectives and provide a degree of covering fire.

There are increasing reports of Russian conducting large-scale “filtration measures” in Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk Oblasts. The “filtration” targets men of military age, former military and law enforcement personnel, and pro-Ukrainian activists for interrogation, torture, and possible execution.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Russian troops shelled Esman community in Sumy region.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.

Russian forces continued to partially encircle Kharkiv and shell civilian infrastructure across the oblast.

Russian forces in Izyum continued attacks on three lines of advance – southeast towards Slovyansk, southwest towards Barvinkove, and directly west away from Donetsk Oblast. The advances towards Barvinkove, and an attempted an offensive in the area of Nova Dmytrivka, they were stopped and turned back. Russians were successful in capturing Zavody and the outskirts of Velyka Komyshuvakha, 20km west of Izyum.

Russian forces made marginal advances in frontal assaults around Severodonetsk, Rubizhne, and Popasna and continued to shell the entire frontline. The slow progress on these multiple small axes of advance, is likely due to their increasing use of concentrated artillery.
The following line produces a map of the region showing the recent situation on the ground.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRXOwIYXIAAzPhu.jpg

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

Russian forces continued ground and air assaults against Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant concentrating artillery and bombing from Tu-22M3 strategic bombers.

The Mariupol mayor’s office reports that 4 Russian filtration camps are operating in the city. US amb to the OSCE Michael Carpenter said a Mariupol escapee said the camps are “like ghettos” where Russians divides up people linked to govt, military, or media. Further reports say Russian occupation forces are increasingly restricting civilian movement in Mariupol and “resorting to physical coercion and blackmail” to force Ukrainian citizens to work for the occupation regime.

Russian army targeted the LOC in the in the vicinity of Chervone, Pavlivka, Vremivka, Novopil, Mali Shcherbaki, Privilne, Orikhiv, Gulyaypole, Kamyanske, Novodanilivka with tank, GRAD MLRS, howitzers, 120 mm mortars and machine guns

Crimea Front -
Russian forces continued to shell along the entire line of contact and there is evidence that forward positions are being reinforced in preparation for a potential resumption of offensive operations towards Mykolayiv and Kryvyi Rih.

Deputy head of appointed occupation authorities of Kherson region says region will be occupied and will start using Russian ruble

Russian television is down in Kherson after strikes in the city after the television station and tower was targeted by Ukrainian Tochka-U and MLRS according to Russian sources. Local residents in Kherson claim Russian forces are shelling Ukrainian positions from residential areas inside the city

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant reported.

Russian Territory -
Reports of drone or possibly missile strikes on Russian logistics centers in Belgorod and Voronezh. Reports of air defense missile launch in Belgorod.
OBSERVATION - Ukrainian interdiction operations in Russia territory has these units very jumpy.

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term. Russian forces are likely attempting to organize forces to launch larger-scale offensive operations in the coming days to capture the entirety of Kherson Oblast, but successful Ukrainian counterattacks are likely delaying and disrupting Russian operations. Piecemeal attacks by Russian forces continue to result in heavy losses of men and equipment. Current Russian forces deployed are assessed as inadequate to accomplish that mission.

Russian deeper interdiction of Ukraine supply lines seems sporadic at best, giving Ukraine time to repair damage and continue supply distribution.

Some analysts are projecting that Russia may try to kickoff offensive operations to capture the entirety of Kherson Oblast in the coming days. Goal to ‘legitimize’ separatist ‘declaration’ of the Oblast switching to Russian affiliation, like Crimea, and the separatist regions.

Ukrainian forces will likely continue conduct further cross-border strikes to disrupt Russian logistics. This has become a distraction to the Donbas offensive, diverting assets to protect these areas

The Zatoka Bridge, which connects the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi Region near the Ukrainian-Romanian Border and the Odessa Region, is forcing all traffic from Romania to Ukraine to go through Moldova now. This may reflect why the sudden attention being given to Moldova by Russia.

___________________________________

Moldova/Transnistria -

Events here are developing rapidly.

Some analysts are indicating that all this is possibly a Russian ploy to help unseat an EU-leaning president and justify military operations pushing in that direction. President of Moldova says they have no defenses for the country. Moldova is completely at the mercy of Russia. “For 30 years, the Moldovan army has been left without equipment, without military equipment and combat-ready means. We are now aware of the consequences,” Sandu said.

OBSERVATION - Many have noted that Russia’s ambitions were not limited to Ukraine, but that Moldova was also in its crosshairs. The big question is does Russia have the capability to pull this off?
The recent activity in Moldova may also have a lot to do with cutting off Romania from supporting Ukraine than anything else - See above on Ukraine OUTLOOK.
___________________________________

Belarus -

The Belorussian defense ministry announced joint drills involving Russian and Belorussian air forces, which started yesterday and will end on 29 April.

OBSERVATION - Outside possibility that Belarus may contribute its air assets to the Ukraine war in place of ground troops. May reflect a Russian attempt to counter NATO/EU contributions to the Ukrainian AF.

In Belarus, the parliament allowed the use of military equipment against citizens and approved the introduction of the death penalty for an attempted terrorist attack (to “provide a deterrent effect on destructive elements, as well as demonstrate the state’s decisive struggle)

Belarus announced that attempted sabotage and acts of terrorism would be punishable by death. This is likely in response to the sabotage of the rail network to confound Russian supply efforts.

______________________________________

Israel -

PIJ Saraya Al-Quds have revealed in a video their drone called “Jenin” - first used in 2019 to observe and attack the IDF on the Gaza border. Notably two additional drones can be seen in the video, one which is the same as Hamas’ Shehab drone, derived from the Qasef in Yemen/Houthi, which again has origins back to Iran as an Ababil. The second a delta wing, all 3 manufactured locally in Gaza. The delta wing shows resemblance to Houthi and Iran origins being similar to the Rased. The Rased was reportedly the first home grown drone from the Houthi’s.

OBSERVATION - Drones will be the big weapon of the next war. Success of the Turkish made TB-2 in multiple theaters is a case in point and one that other nations are looking at - especially Iran.

Iran’s breakout time to a nuclear weapon is now “just a few weeks or less,” White House Press Secretary Jan Psaki told reporters on Tuesday. She then went on to blame Trump’s policies for the development.

OBSERVATION - What is really important is if Israel shares the same view. On the case of the 2015 agreement, Israel appears to side with Trump for pulling out. Be sure Israel is carefully assessing Iranian enrichment activity. I think that a major red line will be the enrichment to the 90% level which would indicate that they could be ready to test a uranium device. Such a red line would force Israeli action.
____________________________________

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.