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Wuhan virus -
An investigation into publicly available data from Public Health Scotland (PHS) shows that there has been a massive surge in teenagers and young adults suffering heart attacks and other heart complications since the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines emerged.
OBSERVATION - Now over 2 years into this ‘pandemic’ the numbers are becoming undeniable. These impacts are seen globally, not just Scotland. These ‘vaccines’ have done more harm than good.
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Economy -
Reports coming out that Wells Fargo, the nation’s largest home lender among US banks , has begun laying off mortgage staff after reporting a sharp decline in home lending revenues in the first quarter of 2022.
OBSERVATION - Another sign that not only is the housing bubble imploding, but that recession is close on its heels
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Invasion of Illegals -
The White House refuses to follow the law and ignores the Consitution on immigration law, a trend that will continue even if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in favor of Texas and against President Joe Biden’s lawsuit over stopping the “remain in Mexico” policy, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said Saturday on Newsmax.
“It appears to me that even when we get court orders and injunctions against the Biden administration, not only do they have a disdain for following federal law and following their constitutional role, they have a disdain for any court order that is against their positions,” Paxton told Newsmax’s “Saturday Report.”
OBSERVATION - Once again i’ll point this out - biden sees courts as nuances and will (and has on many issues) ignore court orders/decisions, tying them up with appeals knowing the bloated court system will takes months/years to come to the USSC and even then play games with the ‘response’, triggering the lawsuit/appeals cycle all over again . Formally, this is known as lawlessness. And no where has he played this card more than the immigration issue.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Red and blue states are rapidly moving further apart on hot-button social issues as lawmakers and activists shift their focus to topics like abortion and transgenderism.
OBSERVATION - This divide is in part why we’ve seen the largest internal migration of people out of blue states and into red states, making them redder. Add to it the task of a ‘great divorce’ from both sides, the risk that a conventional civil war scenario increases.
Regardless of what you think of her or her statements, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R., Ga.) place on the ballot for being an “insurrectionist” is just the tip of the iceberg of the lawfare democrats will try to invoke this midterms.
OBSERVATION - Such tactics suggest the desperation the democrats are feeling under current polling trends showing a red tsunami this fall. This desperation has also triggered some conspiracy theories that democrats will trigger some sort of a disaster whereby the elections are cancelled (such as martial law) or totally corrupted. Remember, democrats have expressed a willingness to essentially burn this country down as long as they can rule over the ashes (rant off)
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Cyber Warfare -
The FBI’s Cyber Division published a notice this past week warning about increased cyber-attack threats on agricultural cooperatives.
“Ransomware actors may be more likely to attack agricultural cooperatives during critical planting and harvest seasons, disrupting operations, causing financial loss, and negatively impacting the food supply chain,” the notice read, adding 2021 and early 2022 ransomware attacks on farming co-ops could affect the current planting season “by disrupting the supply of seeds and fertilizer.”
The agency warned, “A significant disruption of grain production could impact the entire food chain, since grain is not only consumed by humans but also used for animal feed ... In addition, a significant disruption of grain and corn production could impact commodities trading and stocks. “
OBSERVATION - Some are linking this to the theory that fires over the course of the last year at ‘food processing’ facilities are terror strikes. These ransomware cyber attacks are more real than the fire theorists. Ransomware attacks have been very wide spread across many sectors of the economy and even government sectors.
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China -
5 PLA aircraft (four J-16 and one KA-28 ASW) entered Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ on April 23, 2022.
OBSERVATION - These incursions are on a nearly daily basis, many times info that this has occurred have been buried under other global reporting, like the Ukraine war.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
North Korean Air Koryo planes have been flying across the country in a further sign that a military parade is imminent.
Soliders and civilian practice for an apparent parade is continuing, based on satellite imagery.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia is close to completing redeployment of forces and is expected this new offensive soon.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Russian trying to gaslight the US and Ukraine, Russian Ministry of Defense accusing U.S. is preparing “provocations with weapons of mass-destruction” in Ukraine. The Kremlin also continues to falsely blame Ukrainian forces for planning or conducting “provocations” in areas where Russian forces intend to commit or have already committed atrocities.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Three Russian generals have been killed near Kherson, the Ukrainian ministry of defence’s intelligence directorate has said. Two on site and the third after being evac’d to a hospital. The Ukrainian military on Friday hit the command post of Russia’s 49th army near occupied regional capital Kherson, according to the statement. Unconfirmed reports was that this HQ hit yesterday was at the Kherson airport. Same airport struck last month killing a general and sr staff.
- A lot of analysis of just what a BTGs is defined as following two months of devastating losses. Not clear what are bering calling ‘BTGs’ at this point and their level of manning. Russian reinforcements are far from sufficient to replace earlier losses.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers forecast to be letting up towards the end of the 10 day forecast. This will allow some drying out of muddy, off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled to meet today with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin in Kyiv.
Air raid sirens operated through out much of Ukraine over the last 24 hours as Russia launched several waves of cruse missile attacks. Following previous pattern, the areas targeted have largely been civilian residential areas - apartment buildings and the like.
Russian ground operations were only able to make limited and localized advances. Various analysts and observers note that Russia continues to piecemeal its forces into combat across numerous locations and hasn’t concentrated them into defined zones. It is also assessed that the withdrawn units from the north have been put into combat in eastern Ukraine with very little to no consolidation or refit.
In places where Russia appears to have gained ground, some view it as Ukrainian forces conducting a tactical retreat in some areas, blowning bridges, and at the same time positioning for a counter attacks to threaten the sustainment of the Russian offensive.
The reported loss of three more Russian generals, and an unknown number of other senior officers near Kherson displays that Russia has serious OPSEC issues that haven’t been addressed. Not announced (nor expected to be) source of the intel that targeted the attack, documented unsecure comms or even good HUMINT notification are likely.
See this link for up dated map of current ground situation.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQWA7HkXsAA2NZk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Yesterday Russian troops shelled border villages in Sumy region. Damage reported to houses in Atynske and Boiaro-Lezhachi
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Kharkiv and the surrounding areas are faced more heavy shelling overnight. The governor of Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region says towns there are coming under constant shelling.
Ukrainian counter attacks to the east from the Kharkiv region continue to place Russian logistical lines to operations further south at risk. This is forcing Russia to divert some elements to protect against these attacks, weakening the total force for the Donbas offensive. Reports of Russian reinforcements from the Kyiv area being assigned to Kharkiv Oblast likely indicate those Russian concerns.
Russian forces conducted ground attacks from Izyum and managed to seized Lozova, approximately 100 km west of Izyum. As the map link above shows, this is a VERY road bound assault. Russian operations now appear that one of the objectives is to reach the Izyum-Debaltseve road along two or more axes to facilitate encirclement of Ukrainian forces.
Further south, Russian forces conducted limited ground offensives in Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka but did not make any significant territorial gains. Ukraine’s General Staff says Russian troops are preparing for an assault on Severodonetsk and as it was under heavy artillery assault over the last 24 hours. This city is important, the Russians and especially the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Lugansk who have been trying to take it for 3 weeks, so far with many casualties and without success.
Fighting has also been intense in other towns in the southern part of this front. Russian making small gains, but at great loss of personnel and equipment.
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
An aide to office of President of Ukraine Podolyak stated that Russian troops are attacking Azovstal non-stop. Russia has stopped several attempts (based on agreements with Russia) to evacuate civilians from the steel factory and other areas.
There is continued reports that Russia is planning on forcibly conscripting civilians in Maripol (as well as other captured towns). This has brought a warning from UK Defence Ministry.
“Any enlistment of Ukrainian civilians into the Russian armed forces, even if presented by Russia as being voluntary or military service in accordance with Russian law, would constitute a violation of article 51 of the fourth Geneva Convention”
Russia/separatist forces have had very little success pushing past the LOC in the main part of the front. Social media has confirmed that Russian forces from around Mariupol are redeploying to the vicinity of Donetsk City. It is believed that they are likely to enter combat again soon and without rest or refit.
Crimea Front -
Russia’s defense ministry says its troops have conducted a missile strike on a depot containing weapons delivered by the US and European countries to Ukrainian forces near Odessa. The FACT is these missiles hit residential apartments in the city, killing civilians. Videos show a block of flats were among the buildings hit in the strike and officials reported that Russia fired at least six cruise missiles.
Russia may be using its submarines to launch cruse missile attacks. Russians were spotted loading these onto Kilo-class submarines in Sevastopol several days ago. The Black Sea fleet may still be scared of Ukrainan anti-ship weapons and view the submarines as a less exposed target to them.
In what appears to be a rising partisan revolt to Russian occupation, residents of Kherson and Melitopol put psychological pressure on the Russian occupiers. People are making and distributing leaflets with warnings to the enemies. They remind the Russians that they are not happy and they will not stay here for long. The leaflet reads: “Russian invader, know this: Melitopol is Ukraine. Every resident of Melitopol is a partisan! Expect them!”
Russian forces continued a limited offensive in Zaporizhia Oblast but paused ground offensive operations in northern Kherson Oblast . Russian forces in the southwest around Kherson city appear to be struggling to consolidate a defensible perimeter west of the river. The units deployed there are relatively light, and under pressure. They could even be forced over time to retreat east across the Dnipro.
Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant reported.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - Improving weather conditions may cause Russia to increase its attacks across the Donbas front. Russian forces will likely continue attacking southeast from Izyum, west from Kreminna and Popasna, and north from Donetsk City via Avdiivka or another axis.
Otherwise, it appears that more of the same is in store - widespread, poorly to uncoordinated Russian attacks that may gain a little terrain, but at signifiant losses of men and machines.
Russia also appears to be resuming is indiscriminate bombing/artillery of cities - urban terror of civilians.
As Russia seems to try to get a more coordinated attack together (assumed by some), Ukraine continues to benefit from western resupply efforts.
Attention is being drawn to a strategic bridge that connects Crimea to Russian mainland. It has been used heavily to haul war supplies into Crimea. Under conventional thought, it is safe from Ukraine interdiction. However Ukraine has been surprising on it innovation and may be planning an attack to disable the bridge. Something to watch for.
FINALLY, the loss of three more Russian generals and a bunch of other senior officers will put further kinks in Russian command and control. Poor communications have plagued the operation from the start and apparently they haven’t been solved. It is likely that these generals and staffs were meeting to coordinate operations. If so, those coordination of activity are gone, leaving the different groups to continue on their independent ways. It is still mind boggling that Russian has lost so many generals and senior officer in less than two months.
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Poland -
Russian diplomats expelled by Poland were targeting Ukrainian refugees, “even in contact with them and blackmailing them with the fate of their families in Ukraine,” says a Polish official.
Ukraine & Poland will create joint logistics company to enhance railway transportation.
It is one of the points agreed by Ukrainian & Polish Prime-Ministers today during a meeting.
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Europe / NATO General -
Elections today in France pitting President Emanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. All of the pre-election surveys show Macron with a comfortable 10-point lead over Le Pen, but if the election comes out this way it will be a major narrowing from the last election in 2017, which Macron won over Le Pen by a 66 – 33% margin. In other words, while 2017 was a landslide, this election shows the shift in momentum in French opinion.
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Iraq -
Turkey’s latest offensive in Iraq appears to have one objective: Sealing the remaining PKK pathway in Zap to Turkey.
This could end the 40-year-long PKK infiltrations, however, at a cost to Iraqi rights.
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Turkey -
Turkey has closed its airspace to Russian civilian and military aircraft that transports soldiers to Syria after notifying Moscow: Turkish Foreign Minister via TRT.
OBSERVATION - Kind of a mushy ‘closure’, not a total closure.
Turkey is ready to give all possible assistance during the negotiation process between Ukraine and Russia, President Tayyip Erdogan told Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a telephone call, the Turkish presidency said on Sunday.
Erdogan said the evacuation of the wounded and civilians in Ukraine’s Mariupol must be ensured, adding that Turkey viewed the guarantor issue positively in principle.
See Iraq above on incursion.
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Misc of Note -
Another look at the food processing site squirrel. Let’s keep this in perspective. There are about 36,486 plants in the country - even if including all the reported sites (18), this is way less than 1% .
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Globalism / Great Reset -
BIG DAY in GGR reports as they’ve crawled out from under their rock to express goals and methodology.
On Thursday, at the globalist World Bank’s “Financing Climate Action Event” in Washington, Baron Nicholas Stern, an economist working with the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and Economics at the London School of Economics, called for stopping the sale of internal-combustion engines, which still power nearly all of the automotive vehicles in the world. He formerly served as the chief economist for the World Bank from 2000-2003. “The right kind of policies have to be put in place, including the abolition of fossil fuel subsidies, the advancement of carbon pricing, but clarity on timescales for decentralization of the grid, clarity on timescales for stopping the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles, and so on — making sure the sense of direction is clear in those ways,” Stern told the gathering.
The World Bank president David Malpass is also issuing dire warnings, with claims that we are looking at a “human catastrophe” as the World Bank calculates there will be approximately as 37% spike in food prices. Regarding the “broad and deep” price hikes, the World Bank chief said it was “affecting food of all different kinds of oils, grains, and then it gets into other crops, corn crops because they go up when wheat goes up.”
The privacy versus security debate is as “old as civilization”, historian and writer Yuval Noah Harari said recently at the Athens Democracy Forum, an annual international conference in Greece. “But there is now something new: for the first time in history, it is possible to eliminate privacy completely,” said Harari, chief advisor to the World Economic Forum’s leader, Klaus Schwab.
“It was not possible before,” said Harari, “It is now possible. A fundamental change has taken place. “Dictators always dreamt about completely eliminating privacy, monitoring everyone all the time, and knowing everything you do, and not just everything you do but everything you think, and everything you feel.”
Whether it was a tyrant in ancient Greece or Stalin, they always dreamed of it, but they could never do it because it was technically impossible. Now it’s possible, Harari told New York Times moderator Liz Alderman.
OBSERVATION - Pause and think what he revealed - he’s pleased to remove privacy - essentially equating himself (and the rest of the GGR) on the level of tyrants.
Georgia Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger has hired WEF linked Salesforce to manage a state’s voter registration roll. Salesforce is run by a Board Trustee of the World Economic Forum, Marc Benioff. He has a record of far-left actions, including threatening to move his company from Texas over its stringent abortion laws. Salesforce.com is also involved with the “New Georgia Project” and its founder Stacy Abrams.
OBSERVATION - A good question was raised - how does the GGR (WEF) control. Here is one example.
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Wuhan virus -
See China pending new wuhan lockdowns.
On Friday’s broadcast of HBO’s “Real Time,” host Bill Maher stated that younger people “have been indoctrinated” to be needlessly anxious about the coronavirus, which has contributed to depression among that demographic.
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Economy -
Used car prices have risen 30.4% over the last year.
The extended Shanghai lockdown is morphing into a logistics disaster as trucks trickle into the city, leaving empty containers piling up at the world’s largest port. Trucking in & out of Shanghai is about half of what it was before, & the situation is deteriorating. Truckers need a 48-hr negative PCR, a host of digital codes and approvals to enter cities around Shanghai. In Suzhou, Kunshan, local govts have even barred trucks from Shanghai.
When Shanghai reopens, factories will be rushing to get goods to the ports and out, leading to higher shipping rates, and a huge rush of stuff out to other global ports. Like a bubble bursting. US/EU ports will then be overwhelmed again, like they were months before.
The demand for spot market trucking jobs is slowing down. An indicator of economic health, the decrease in labor demand points to an overall falloff in demand for goods.
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Invasion of Illegals -
Mexican officials expressed concerns about the U.S. ending Title 42 authority for border removals. Mexican lawmaker Rosa Gonzalez said, “The flow of migrants we have now is already out of control.” The officials urged the DHS to speed up the process for asylum requests.
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Biden / Harris watch -
Most Americans feel as though the country is headed in the wrong direction under Biden, an AP/NORC survey released Friday found. Their view of the country’s direction is sour, as 70 percent said it is headed in the wrong direction, well into the second year of Biden’s presidency. That opinion is shared by 93 percent of Republicans, 72 percent of independents, and 49 percent of Democrats.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -
Spotify has decided not to renew the deal with 0bama, and they are looking elsewhere for a deal on their podcast content.
Musk twisting Twitter’s arm over take over talks. More liberal heads exploding.
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China -
The Chinese capital Beijing has kicked off mass testing for millions of residents after a spike in Covid cases. The Chaoyang district reported 26 cases over the weekend - the highest number so far in Beijing’s latest surge.
Long queues developed outside supermarkets and shops despite government assurances there is sufficient food.
It comes amid fears that Beijing could face a similar situation to Shanghai, which has seen some 25 million people shut in their homes for weeks.
Additionally, China has been installing metal fences in front of apartments and roads to prevent residents in shanghai from leaving and escaping the containment zone.
OBSERVATION - These lockdowns will have global impacts on the supply chain and economy.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison declared on Sunday that a Chinese military base on the Solomon Islands would be an unacceptable ‘red line’, without adding how Canberra would retaliate, media reports said.
Morrison’s government and the US are scrambling to respond to a recently-signed security deal between the islands and Beijing, which they consider an ‘aggressive’ move, RT reported.
‘Working together with our partners in New Zealand and of course the United States, I share the same red line that the United States has when it comes to these issues,’ Morrison said. ‘We won’t be having Chinese military naval bases in our region on our doorstep.’
OBSERVATION - Does this indicate war? NZ and Australia will essentially need to physically prevent China from establishing a military base there.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
Also watching for a military parade.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 61)
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia is close to completing redeployment of forces and is expected this new offensive soon.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Putin has deployed Iskander-M mobile battlefield missile launchers within 40 miles of the Ukrainian border, Ukraine’s military has said. The mobile system’s two ballistic missiles have a range of up to 300 miles and can carry conventional or nuclear warheads. Though the location hasn’t been specified it is suspected that it is near the city of Belgorod which is the administrative centre of Russia’s Belgorod region, north of the border with Ukraine.
Ukrainian General Staff believes that eventually Russia wants to deploy the unit into Eastern Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Nuclear saber rattling.
RUMINT -
More Putin health concerns. Vladimir Putin looked frail and unsteady at footage purporting to be from a midnight mass for Orthodox Easter, stoking rumours surrounding the Russian president’s ailing health.
He chewed his lip and appeared unsure of his footing as he stood in Moscow’s Christ the Saviour Cathedral alongside the city’s mayor Sergei Sobyanin.
OBSERVATION - An ill putin may well have his mental facilities degrades too.
Logistics -
- The loss of the Druzhba Oil Depot to Russian tactical operations remains to be seen.
Economic Impacts -
- Russia’s airlines industry about to take another step back as Sukhoi Superjets starts to run out of key western-made parts.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers forecast to be letting up towards the end of the 10 day forecast. This will allow some drying out of muddy, off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Sec State Blinken and Sec Def Austin met with Zelensky yesterday. Blinken told Zelensky US diplomats to return to Ukraine ‘this week’ as well as promising nearly 800 million more aid..
Biden has nominated US diplomat Bridget Brink as Ambassador to Ukraine.
Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine made minor advances and missile attacks throughout most of central Ukraine targeting rail road facilities.
A suspected Ukraine missile strike took out a major petroleum facility, potentially harming Russian’s Donbas operations.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Ukrainian forces repelled limited Russian attacks from Izyum toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in the past 24 hours. Russian forces maintained their positions around Kharkiv city and continued to shell the surrounding area on April 24 and conducted remote mining in Korotichi (a western suburb of Kharkiv) to disrupt Ukrainian movements
Russian forces conducted several attacks around Severodonetsk, Popasna, and Marinka on April 24, securing limited gains. Russian forces made small advances around Severodonetsk, including establishing a pontoon crossing across the Krasna River west of Severodonetsk and capturing the towns of Popivka, Pischane, Zhytlivka, and Kreminna northwest of Rubizhne. Russia is attempting to reinforce operations around Izyum.
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Russia announced a unilateral ceasefire at Azovstal in Mariupol. If Russian follows previous patterns, this ceasefire will be cancelled unexpectedly and any civilians who do try to make it out will be rounded up and taken to Russian ‘camps’ for filtration.
There are reports that Russia is setting up for another assualt on the Azovstal facility, contrary to their public statements. Russia has maintained artillery and bombing of the facility.
Russian forces are conducting assaults north from Melitopol toward Hulyaipole, 80km east of Zaporizhzhia, and have advanced 10km in the past week. Russian forces, including units from Mariupol, likely to attempt to drive north into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to encircle Ukrainian forces. It is not certain that these depleted units will be successful in this effort.
Crimea Front -
Russian army deployed big amount of equipment and military at Velyka Novosilka - Novodarivka - Malynivka frontline and attempting to advance towards Zaporizhzhia. This axis is seen as supporting the southern pincer of the Donbas offensive.
Ukrainian Armed Forces restored control over 5 settlements of the Mykolaiv region. Meanwhile, Russian forces withdrew to Chornobaivka, a suburb of Kherson city.
Residents of Kherson trying to leave the city before the ‘referendum’ (as honest at the Crimea one) but Russian troops not letting anyone out. This ‘referendum’ is to declare Kherson Oblast an independent republic as did Crimea, and the Donbas separatists. Such a ‘referendum’ would also ‘permit’ forced conscription of military aged men.
NOTE - This city fell to Russian forces with the early surrender by the pro-Russia mayor. There is considerable anti-Russian sentiment by even the “pro-Russia” population. Interesting contrast.
Localized fighting continued in northern Kherson Oblast and west of Kherson city. No signifcant change of terrain for either side.
Western Ukraine -
Missile strikes throughout the region, with five railway stations hit by missiles, including one in Krasne, near Lviv, where a facility handling the power supply to overhead lines was struck.
OBSERVATION - This is after Blinken’s visit to Kyiv - he travelled via rail.
Russian Territory -
Two massive explosions hit the Druzhba Oil Depot and an oil storage facility at the 120th arsenal of the Main Rocket and Artillery Directorate both ing ht town of Bryansk, Russia, located about 105km from the Ukrainian border. It is suspected that two Ukrainian fired two Tochka-U tactical ballistic missiles, though Ukraine is neither confirming or denying it. Photographic evidence several hours after the strike show the Druzhba tank farm nearly totally destroyed.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - Russian forces will likely continue attacking southeast from Izyum, west from Kreminna and Popasna, and north from Donetsk City via Avdiivka or another axis. They may locally make small gains but it doesn’t appear that any major break out is pending.
Russia response to the missile strike on Bryansk is yet to be seen. However, I expect Lyiv to be targeted just like it was after the sinking of the Moskva. Ukraine taking the fight into adjacent Russian territory, and the ease they have so far, must be giving Russian planners fits. Ukraine has been careful in their planning and execution of these strikes so far. Russia now has to face diverting assets from the Donbas offensive to provide protection - like ADA assets - to these previously thought to be ‘safe’ locations. Bryansk is also due north of the region Russia evacuated (Chernihv), giving Ukraine greater freedom to move these long range assets around without interference.
Russia is pushing for ‘referendums ‘ in captured territories, a move designed to provide putin some sort of ‘victory’ to celebrate on May 9th. It is widely expected these ‘referendums’ are simply bogus as previous ones, and putin will seek to use them as leverage in any future peace talks.
Continued pressure on the defenders trapped in the Azovstal facility with no relief in sight.
With newer and more lethal arms coming into Ukraine, Russia will be forced to address interdiction efforts in a greater way. Yesterday’s rail road strikes is one way, but only temporary. It is suspected that the movement of Iskander-M’s into the theater and even Ukraine itself may be a precursor to threaten western resupply efforts. One scenario would involve an Iskander strike on a position / facility likely in Lviv, near the Polish border, as a warning shot. I find it unlikely at the stage that putin would order a strike against a NATO nation. He has his hands full with just Ukraine and expanding it would not be the smartest thing to do.
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Poland -
Polish Ambassador to the United States Marek Magierowski said his country would not recognize Russian territorial gains in Ukraine.
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Europe / NATO General -
President Emanuel Macron won reelection over Marine Le Pen but with by a smaller margin than previous election.
Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg said he doesn’t support Ukraine joining the European Union. He believes Ukraine and several Balkan states should be in a separate category for economic cooperation.
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Israel -
Israeli army says one rocket fired from Lebanon at northern Israel landed near Shlomi. No damage caused In response , Israeli army Artillery forces targeted the source of the launch in Lebanon with artillery fire. It adds that “infrastructure” was also hit. The rocket landed near the northern town of Matzuva, and caused no damage or injuries.
OBSERVATION - Rocket source one of the affiliated Hamas groups. Israel’s careful response designed not to anger Hezebollah or draw them into the ongoing strife.
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Iran -
Asaluyeh, southern Iran Workers of Hengam petrochemical are on strike protesting poor working conditions. Bushehr, southern Iran Workers of a local steel factory are on strike in support of the petrochemical workers’ protests and strike.
OBSERVATION - Economic conditions are still very poor and the population is angry.
Iran calls for new meeting in Vienna to discuss nuclear deal. Iran is playing the west like a fiddle and without strong pushback and leadership, will continue to do so.
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Iraq -
6 rockets targeted a Turkish military base near Sheikhan approaches in Mosul governorate. Likely PKK Kurds striking back against Turkish forces.
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