Replies

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Globalism / Great Reset -

BIG DAY in GGR reports as they’ve crawled out from under their rock to express goals and methodology.

On Thursday, at the globalist World Bank’s “Financing Climate Action Event” in Washington, Baron Nicholas Stern, an economist working with the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and Economics at the London School of Economics, called for stopping the sale of internal-combustion engines, which still power nearly all of the automotive vehicles in the world. He formerly served as the chief economist for the World Bank from 2000-2003. “The right kind of policies have to be put in place, including the abolition of fossil fuel subsidies, the advancement of carbon pricing, but clarity on timescales for decentralization of the grid, clarity on timescales for stopping the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles, and so on — making sure the sense of direction is clear in those ways,” Stern told the gathering.

The World Bank president David Malpass is also issuing dire warnings, with claims that we are looking at a “human catastrophe” as the World Bank calculates there will be approximately as 37% spike in food prices. Regarding the “broad and deep” price hikes, the World Bank chief said it was “affecting food of all different kinds of oils, grains, and then it gets into other crops, corn crops because they go up when wheat goes up.”

The privacy versus security debate is as “old as civilization”, historian and writer Yuval Noah Harari said recently at the Athens Democracy Forum, an annual international conference in Greece. “But there is now something new: for the first time in history, it is possible to eliminate privacy completely,” said Harari, chief advisor to the World Economic Forum’s leader, Klaus Schwab.
“It was not possible before,” said Harari, “It is now possible. A fundamental change has taken place. “Dictators always dreamt about completely eliminating privacy, monitoring everyone all the time, and knowing everything you do, and not just everything you do but everything you think, and everything you feel.”
Whether it was a tyrant in ancient Greece or Stalin, they always dreamed of it, but they could never do it because it was technically impossible. Now it’s possible, Harari told New York Times moderator Liz Alderman.

OBSERVATION - Pause and think what he revealed - he’s pleased to remove privacy - essentially equating himself (and the rest of the GGR) on the level of tyrants.

Georgia Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger has hired WEF linked Salesforce to manage a state’s voter registration roll. Salesforce is run by a Board Trustee of the World Economic Forum, Marc Benioff. He has a record of far-left actions, including threatening to move his company from Texas over its stringent abortion laws. Salesforce.com is also involved with the “New Georgia Project” and its founder Stacy Abrams.
OBSERVATION - A good question was raised - how does the GGR (WEF) control. Here is one example.
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Wuhan virus -

See China pending new wuhan lockdowns.

On Friday’s broadcast of HBO’s “Real Time,” host Bill Maher stated that younger people “have been indoctrinated” to be needlessly anxious about the coronavirus, which has contributed to depression among that demographic.
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Economy -

Used car prices have risen 30.4% over the last year.

The extended Shanghai lockdown is morphing into a logistics disaster as trucks trickle into the city, leaving empty containers piling up at the world’s largest port. Trucking in & out of Shanghai is about half of what it was before, & the situation is deteriorating. Truckers need a 48-hr negative PCR, a host of digital codes and approvals to enter cities around Shanghai. In Suzhou, Kunshan, local govts have even barred trucks from Shanghai.
When Shanghai reopens, factories will be rushing to get goods to the ports and out, leading to higher shipping rates, and a huge rush of stuff out to other global ports. Like a bubble bursting. US/EU ports will then be overwhelmed again, like they were months before.

The demand for spot market trucking jobs is slowing down. An indicator of economic health, the decrease in labor demand points to an overall falloff in demand for goods.

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Invasion of Illegals -

Mexican officials expressed concerns about the U.S. ending Title 42 authority for border removals. Mexican lawmaker Rosa Gonzalez said, “The flow of migrants we have now is already out of control.” The officials urged the DHS to speed up the process for asylum requests.
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Biden / Harris watch -

Most Americans feel as though the country is headed in the wrong direction under Biden, an AP/NORC survey released Friday found. Their view of the country’s direction is sour, as 70 percent said it is headed in the wrong direction, well into the second year of Biden’s presidency. That opinion is shared by 93 percent of Republicans, 72 percent of independents, and 49 percent of Democrats.

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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -

Spotify has decided not to renew the deal with 0bama, and they are looking elsewhere for a deal on their podcast content.

Musk twisting Twitter’s arm over take over talks. More liberal heads exploding.
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China -

The Chinese capital Beijing has kicked off mass testing for millions of residents after a spike in Covid cases. The Chaoyang district reported 26 cases over the weekend - the highest number so far in Beijing’s latest surge.
Long queues developed outside supermarkets and shops despite government assurances there is sufficient food.
It comes amid fears that Beijing could face a similar situation to Shanghai, which has seen some 25 million people shut in their homes for weeks.

Additionally, China has been installing metal fences in front of apartments and roads to prevent residents in shanghai from leaving and escaping the containment zone.
OBSERVATION - These lockdowns will have global impacts on the supply chain and economy.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison declared on Sunday that a Chinese military base on the Solomon Islands would be an unacceptable ‘red line’, without adding how Canberra would retaliate, media reports said.
Morrison’s government and the US are scrambling to respond to a recently-signed security deal between the islands and Beijing, which they consider an ‘aggressive’ move, RT reported.
‘Working together with our partners in New Zealand and of course the United States, I share the same red line that the United States has when it comes to these issues,’ Morrison said. ‘We won’t be having Chinese military naval bases in our region on our doorstep.’
OBSERVATION - Does this indicate war? NZ and Australia will essentially need to physically prevent China from establishing a military base there.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.
Also watching for a military parade.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 61)

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia is close to completing redeployment of forces and is expected this new offensive soon.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Putin has deployed Iskander-M mobile battlefield missile launchers within 40 miles of the Ukrainian border, Ukraine’s military has said. The mobile system’s two ballistic missiles have a range of up to 300 miles and can carry conventional or nuclear warheads. Though the location hasn’t been specified it is suspected that it is near the city of Belgorod which is the administrative centre of Russia’s Belgorod region, north of the border with Ukraine.
Ukrainian General Staff believes that eventually Russia wants to deploy the unit into Eastern Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Nuclear saber rattling.

RUMINT -
More Putin health concerns. Vladimir Putin looked frail and unsteady at footage purporting to be from a midnight mass for Orthodox Easter, stoking rumours surrounding the Russian president’s ailing health.
He chewed his lip and appeared unsure of his footing as he stood in Moscow’s Christ the Saviour Cathedral alongside the city’s mayor Sergei Sobyanin.
OBSERVATION - An ill putin may well have his mental facilities degrades too.

Logistics -
- The loss of the Druzhba Oil Depot to Russian tactical operations remains to be seen.

Economic Impacts -
- Russia’s airlines industry about to take another step back as Sukhoi Superjets starts to run out of key western-made parts.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers forecast to be letting up towards the end of the 10 day forecast. This will allow some drying out of muddy, off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Sec State Blinken and Sec Def Austin met with Zelensky yesterday. Blinken told Zelensky US diplomats to return to Ukraine ‘this week’ as well as promising nearly 800 million more aid..

Biden has nominated US diplomat Bridget Brink as Ambassador to Ukraine.

Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine made minor advances and missile attacks throughout most of central Ukraine targeting rail road facilities.

A suspected Ukraine missile strike took out a major petroleum facility, potentially harming Russian’s Donbas operations.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.

Ukrainian forces repelled limited Russian attacks from Izyum toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in the past 24 hours. Russian forces maintained their positions around Kharkiv city and continued to shell the surrounding area on April 24 and conducted remote mining in Korotichi (a western suburb of Kharkiv) to disrupt Ukrainian movements

Russian forces conducted several attacks around Severodonetsk, Popasna, and Marinka on April 24, securing limited gains. Russian forces made small advances around Severodonetsk, including establishing a pontoon crossing across the Krasna River west of Severodonetsk and capturing the towns of Popivka, Pischane, Zhytlivka, and Kreminna northwest of Rubizhne. Russia is attempting to reinforce operations around Izyum.

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Russia announced a unilateral ceasefire at Azovstal in Mariupol. If Russian follows previous patterns, this ceasefire will be cancelled unexpectedly and any civilians who do try to make it out will be rounded up and taken to Russian ‘camps’ for filtration.
There are reports that Russia is setting up for another assualt on the Azovstal facility, contrary to their public statements. Russia has maintained artillery and bombing of the facility.

Russian forces are conducting assaults north from Melitopol toward Hulyaipole, 80km east of Zaporizhzhia, and have advanced 10km in the past week. Russian forces, including units from Mariupol, likely to attempt to drive north into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to encircle Ukrainian forces. It is not certain that these depleted units will be successful in this effort.

Crimea Front -
Russian army deployed big amount of equipment and military at Velyka Novosilka - Novodarivka - Malynivka frontline and attempting to advance towards Zaporizhzhia. This axis is seen as supporting the southern pincer of the Donbas offensive.

Ukrainian Armed Forces restored control over 5 settlements of the Mykolaiv region. Meanwhile, Russian forces withdrew to Chornobaivka, a suburb of Kherson city.

Residents of Kherson trying to leave the city before the ‘referendum’ (as honest at the Crimea one) but Russian troops not letting anyone out. This ‘referendum’ is to declare Kherson Oblast an independent republic as did Crimea, and the Donbas separatists. Such a ‘referendum’ would also ‘permit’ forced conscription of military aged men.
NOTE - This city fell to Russian forces with the early surrender by the pro-Russia mayor. There is considerable anti-Russian sentiment by even the “pro-Russia” population. Interesting contrast.

Localized fighting continued in northern Kherson Oblast and west of Kherson city. No signifcant change of terrain for either side.

Western Ukraine -
Missile strikes throughout the region, with five railway stations hit by missiles, including one in Krasne, near Lviv, where a facility handling the power supply to overhead lines was struck.
OBSERVATION - This is after Blinken’s visit to Kyiv - he travelled via rail.

Russian Territory -
Two massive explosions hit the Druzhba Oil Depot and an oil storage facility at the 120th arsenal of the Main Rocket and Artillery Directorate both ing ht town of Bryansk, Russia, located about 105km from the Ukrainian border. It is suspected that two Ukrainian fired two Tochka-U tactical ballistic missiles, though Ukraine is neither confirming or denying it. Photographic evidence several hours after the strike show the Druzhba tank farm nearly totally destroyed.

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - Russian forces will likely continue attacking southeast from Izyum, west from Kreminna and Popasna, and north from Donetsk City via Avdiivka or another axis. They may locally make small gains but it doesn’t appear that any major break out is pending.

Russia response to the missile strike on Bryansk is yet to be seen. However, I expect Lyiv to be targeted just like it was after the sinking of the Moskva. Ukraine taking the fight into adjacent Russian territory, and the ease they have so far, must be giving Russian planners fits. Ukraine has been careful in their planning and execution of these strikes so far. Russia now has to face diverting assets from the Donbas offensive to provide protection - like ADA assets - to these previously thought to be ‘safe’ locations. Bryansk is also due north of the region Russia evacuated (Chernihv), giving Ukraine greater freedom to move these long range assets around without interference.

Russia is pushing for ‘referendums ‘ in captured territories, a move designed to provide putin some sort of ‘victory’ to celebrate on May 9th. It is widely expected these ‘referendums’ are simply bogus as previous ones, and putin will seek to use them as leverage in any future peace talks.

Continued pressure on the defenders trapped in the Azovstal facility with no relief in sight.

With newer and more lethal arms coming into Ukraine, Russia will be forced to address interdiction efforts in a greater way. Yesterday’s rail road strikes is one way, but only temporary. It is suspected that the movement of Iskander-M’s into the theater and even Ukraine itself may be a precursor to threaten western resupply efforts. One scenario would involve an Iskander strike on a position / facility likely in Lviv, near the Polish border, as a warning shot. I find it unlikely at the stage that putin would order a strike against a NATO nation. He has his hands full with just Ukraine and expanding it would not be the smartest thing to do.
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Poland -

Polish Ambassador to the United States Marek Magierowski said his country would not recognize Russian territorial gains in Ukraine.

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Europe / NATO General -

President Emanuel Macron won reelection over Marine Le Pen but with by a smaller margin than previous election.

Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg said he doesn’t support Ukraine joining the European Union. He believes Ukraine and several Balkan states should be in a separate category for economic cooperation.

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Israel -

Israeli army says one rocket fired from Lebanon at northern Israel landed near Shlomi. No damage caused In response , Israeli army Artillery forces targeted the source of the launch in Lebanon with artillery fire. It adds that “infrastructure” was also hit. The rocket landed near the northern town of Matzuva, and caused no damage or injuries.

OBSERVATION - Rocket source one of the affiliated Hamas groups. Israel’s careful response designed not to anger Hezebollah or draw them into the ongoing strife.
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Iran -

Asaluyeh, southern Iran Workers of Hengam petrochemical are on strike protesting poor working conditions. Bushehr, southern Iran Workers of a local steel factory are on strike in support of the petrochemical workers’ protests and strike.
OBSERVATION - Economic conditions are still very poor and the population is angry.

Iran calls for new meeting in Vienna to discuss nuclear deal. Iran is playing the west like a fiddle and without strong pushback and leadership, will continue to do so.

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Iraq -

6 rockets targeted a Turkish military base near Sheikhan approaches in Mosul governorate. Likely PKK Kurds striking back against Turkish forces.

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Globalism / Great Reset -

Still keeping this on the radar screen. The WHO is attempting to push through changes to a treaty that would give them global control over health worldwide. This helps fulfill some of the goals of the WEF’s Great Reset. It is a massive power grab that takes away a nation’s sovereign rights to determine its own health standards.
A decision will be made by vote on May 22-28 at WHO World Health Assembly. Two-thirds of the US Senate does not have to vote for it.

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Wuhan virus -

Pfizer indicated in their documents that have been released that 100 micrograms of Moderna’s mRNA vaccine is enough to damage a person’s immune system. This is in line with the statistics and data coming out showing those who have taken these shots are suffering from immune system degradation, or VAIDS (vaccine-induced acquired immunodeficiency syndrome.)
The recent batch of Pfizer documents released by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), found that the company actually knew the COVID “vaccine” of its fellow Big Pharma company, Moderna, can damage the immune system.
However, Pfizer also knew that their shots also caused immunosuppression.

OBSERVATION - Pfizer and Moderna have exemption from lawsuits for its wuhan jabs. IIRC, this exemption can be voided if the company has committed fraud. Burying these adverse results could constitute fraud.

A strange outbreak of severe hepatitis in young children has been reported in the U.S. and Europe, puzzling public health officials. The children were tested for common hepatitis viruses, but they were not to blame, leaving the cause unknown.
In a news release, Graham Cooke, a professor of infectious diseases at Imperial College London, suggested that if the hepatitis was caused by COVID-19, “it would be surprising not to see it more widely distributed across the country given the high prevalence of (COVID-19) at the moment.”
Potential links to COVID-19 injections appear not to have been widely explored yet, even though the shots have been previously associated with the development of hepatitis. British health officials did state, however, that none of the affected children had received a COVID-19 shot. However, there are links to the jab and hepatitis. A Journal of Hepatology paper noted that seven additional cases of suspected immune-mediated hepatitis have been reported following COVID-19 shots Researchers have uncovered innate immune suppression triggered by COVID-19 shots and other disturbances that could cause liver disease.

OBSERVATION - Developing story I noted earlier. Some believe the lockdown/isolation removed basic immunological development in kids through build up of resistance from general interaction (ie playing).
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Economy -

The Colorado River, which is experiencing persistent drought, provides water to 40 million Americans and 5.5 million acres of farmland in the American Southwest. Lack of irrigation water has led farmers to forgo planting large swathes of their land. With conditions expected to worsen, food prices and availability will continue to be affected.
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Invasion of Illegals -

The Biden administration has been temporarily barred by a federal judge from ending the pandemic health policy known as Title 42 on May 23. The move delays what Homeland Security officials predicted would prompt an unprecedented rush of migrants to the U.S.-Mexico border and is a major win for the three Republican states that brought the lawsuit in early April, which 18 other states have since joined.
The lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana. Judge Robert Summerhays announced a temporary restraining order in the case Monday, calling on the Department of Justice and states to work out the details in continuing the policy.

OBSERVATION - This is a temporary order but a win of one battle of the war. However, biden will likely ignore any lower level judge and follow its transjectory of removing the ban pending an eventual appeal to the appeal to the USSC.

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Biden / Harris watch -

biden administration concerned twitter will allow Trump to have his account back.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Still seeing a lot of low rumblings over concerns that biden will initiate a false flag event of some kind before the midterm in order to affect those elections to maintain democrat power. Threat remains amorphous.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -

Twitter board accepts Musk’s offer. More liberal heads exploding.
Twitter locked down the ability of its employees to make changes to the platform after it was revealed that @elonmusk has reached a deal to buy the company. The lockdown is to prevent activist employees from sabotaging the platform as revenge for the deal.

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China -

US officials say that the US won’t rule out military action if China establishes base in Solomon Islands.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

North Korea held a highly-expected military parade on Monday. That’s according to the country’s state media. It marks the 90th anniversary of the founding of its military. North Korea says columns of “latest tactical missile units,” tanks, columns of “strategic missiles,” a column of “super-large MLRS capable of “successive strike” and others were rolled out as well, along with Hwasong-17 ICBM. Kim Jong Un in a speech given at the parade vowed to bolster his nuclear capability at “maximum speed.”

OBSERVATION - May seem trivia, but such parades provide western intelligence with insight to NK tactical and strategic weapons development.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 62)

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russia continues to rattle the nuclear saber. At this stage, 62 days into the war, the threatening effects have worn off and NATO/West is accelerating the quantity and types of equipment being sent to Ukraine, including aircraft.

Siberian wildfires are burning unchecked because Russian military units which usually fight them are at war.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers forecast to be letting up towards the end of the 10 day forecast. This will allow some drying out of muddy, off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

RUMINT -
Some of the pro-Russian Luhansk, Ukraine “LHR” leadership gathered for a meeting with their collaborator “Mayor” and there was a gas explosion. And they are all dead.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Action in the Donbas region are in a state of general status quo. Russians stage attacks, in some cases gaining a limited amount of territory or repulsed. Attacks largely constrained to road network. Ukraine conducts selective counter attacks regaining territory and strikes against exposed Russian units and logistical convoys. Overall, Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine took little to no additional territory overnight.

Russian forces resumed ground attacks against Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant in addition to intensive bombing assaults.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.

Russian forces maintained their positions around Kharkiv city and continued artillery and aviation strikes on Kharkiv city and the surrounding settlements.

Russian forces continued to mount unsuccessful ground offensives southward from Izyum toward Barvinkove and Slovyansk. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults against Koroviy Yar and Rubizhne and that fighting is ongoing in Popasna.

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

Russian troops continue to shell Azovstal in Mariupol and have launched ground attacks again. Russian artillery continues to inflict massive damage on civilian infrastructure in areas of Mariupol that are already under Russian control.
Continuation of ground attacks will deny Russia the forces necessary to reinforce the Donbas campaign.

Third mass grave found 5 km from Mariupol in the village Staryi Krym. The first excavated trenches in the cemetery near Staryi Krym appeared on March 24, after the village was occupied by the Russian military.

Russian troops using a Su-24 aircraft, tanks, GRAD MLRS, howitzers, 120 mm mortars and large-caliber machine guns attacked following cities: Novodanylivka, Kamyanske, Pavlivka, Orikhiv, Novoandriyivka, Huliaipole, Charivne, Huliaipilske, Vremivka, Novosilka, Poltavka, Volne Pole, Zaliznychne, Uspenivka, and Belogorye. This is a continuation of heavy artillery preparation along the LOC for any northward push out of separatist held territory towards forces attempting to push southward from the Khariv front.

Crimea Front -

Russia conducted limited attacks west toward Mykolaiv and north toward Kryvyi Rih . Overall, though, Ukraine is maintaining the initiative through effective counter attacks.

Russian missile strike hit bridge over Dniester at Liman in Odesa region. This is a key bridge connecting parts of Ukraine divided by the Dnister. Its destruction will impact support from Ukrainian forces west of Odesa.

Western Ukraine -
Yesterdays attacks on railroad infrastructure continue to be cleaned up, but Russia hasn’t followed this up.

Russian Territory -
Ukrainian artillery has stepped up its cross border attacks on Russia. Overnight, damage was reported in three cities - Golovchino, Otradnoe village of Belgorod region as result of shelling
Shells landed near Otradnoe and Nekhoteevka, all villages in Belgorod region of Russia.

OBSERVATION - No real news on if the artillery impacts any real military associated targets. If not, what is the purpose of these attacks?

Follow up - Some Ukraine sources are saying that the attack on fuel tanks in the Russian city of Bryansk, were carried out with TB2 Bayraktar. and the TB2 that was shot down while returning to Ukraine immediately after the attack.

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - More of the same. Russia launches many , uncoordinated attacks into the Donbas region and face limited to no success rate while losing a lot of men and equipment. We are weeks now into this redirection and focus on the Donbas and Russia still shows difficulties organizing a much larger operaton than it is currently conducting.

Heavy artillery/air barrages along the LOC with the separatist region are still considered to be a precursor to an attempted major offensive to the north to encircle the Donbas region and any Ukraine forces there. Russia ground forces in this area have been underperforming so far and reinforcements from Mariupol have questionable combat readiness or capability.

Speaking of Mariupol, seeing Russian resumption of ground assaults into the steel plant complex. Russian calculations must indicate that Ukraine holdouts have more resources than they initially thought and siege warfare won’t work.

Russia has done little to stop/impede the flow of supplies to support Ukraine’s war effort. It seems Russia cannot work an effective interdiction plan while trying to capture Donbas. In many ways, Ukraine is in better shape now than they were two months ago. On the flip side, Russia has to rely on more unreliable war reserves.

The Transnistria events pose a interesting question of actions/responses. The separatist/Russian forces in Transnistria are unlikely to attack into Ukraine, but possibly into Moldova, raising potential conflict with Romania.
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Moldova/Transnistria -

Added this category in proximity to the above Russia and Ukraine sections because of the apparent link to the actions there. Events here are developing rapidly.

What the heck is happening in the Moldovan region of Transnistria! Overnight, Russian Media reported that Special Forces in the Moldovan Break-Away Region of Transnistria have been put on “High Alert” to Counter Threats from Foreign and Domestic Groups, this comes after explosions have been reported in 2 Major Cities in the Region, Parcani ( at a military unit/base) and Tiraspol (Ministry of State Security building). Additionally, two significant radio/cell towers were attacked. In breaking - there are unconfirmed reports that another “explosion” occurred in the Tiraspol , Transnistria at a Russian military airfield this morning.

The so-called Security Council of Transnistria reportedly called these events “terrorist attacks”. Russian backed separatists controlling Transnistria have announced that they’re “going to announce important decisions regarding the security of the country”

Locals are already panicking with traffic jams at “checkpoints” between Russian backed separatist in controlled “Transnistria” and Moldova , as people begin to flee Transnistria”.

Moldova’s President is convening the country’s “defense council” over the incidents in the regime controlled Transnistria region of Moldova.

The overnight chatter speculated on who was behind these attacks. 1) Ukraine special forces 2) Russian ‘False Flag” and 3) Moldovan elements.

Hard to say at this stage, however a “false flag” is leading in my opinion. Almost certainly a false flag like in Donetsk and Luhansk that helped with pretexts to invade Ukraine, this time it may give pretexts to their goals of taking Transnistria in Moldova after going through Odesa in southern Ukraine

Let’s put this in context, just last week Russia indicated that the Russian Phase 2 is a land bridge encompassing all of southern Ukraine to the Transnistria region of Moldova. The Moldovan Bureau of Reintegration believes that the explosions in the building of the local Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol (Transnistria) are “a pretext for creating tension in the Transnistrian region” and an excuse for further intervention by Russia. Moldova has long been concerned Russia could stage provocations as an excuse for further intervention.

Serious questions surround any Russian intervention
1. Pro-Russian Transnistria forces are only a few thousand locals that are assessed as being poorly trained and equipped. As such, they are assessed as unlikely to be utilized to join the fight in Ukraine.
2. Deeply engaged in southeastern Ukraine, what forces do Russia have that can affect any intervention? Two recent developments may shed light. FIrst, the Russian destruction of the bridge over Dniester, restricting east-west transfer of troops and the availability of amphibious forces. Some speculate Russian troops could land in that area southwest of Odessa, with assistance of Russian “peacekeeping” brigade in Transnistria. Any landing would be strongly resisted with bolstered Ukrainan anti ship missile systems.
3. Moldova proper doesn’t have the military force to recapture the Transnistria region. If supported by more Russian forces, separatists could take more land from Moldova.

Should Russia open this new ‘front’, the risk of greater NATO involvement increases as Moldova has deep ties to Romania. Barring huge Ukraine misjudgment, the Russian amphibious forces would be seriously mauled and combat effectiveness questionable. Resupply by water would be tenuous, Russia would be forced to use airfields in Transnistria to supply logistics.

Overall, not sure how this is going to play out. Definitely Russia is looking to pull in forces from Transnistria in some manner. However, Russian forces are very stretched thinly dealing with the Donbas offensive making any kind of combat actions initiated via an amphibious assault or even air lift of troops into Transnistria, very risky with little chance of success. Russian media reported this morning that the Russian government ‘would like to avoid a scenario in which Moscow would have to intervene’ in Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region.

Where the greatest risk rises is intervention by Romania to protect Romanian speaking citizens (the same excuse Russia uses), bringing Russia now into direct confrontation with NATO via Article 5.
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Europe / NATO General -

Two newspapers - one Swedish, the other Finnish - have reported the governments of Sweden and Finland have agreed to submit NATO applications at the same time and that it will happen in the middle of next month.

NATO warships arrived at a Finnish port for training exercises.

Defence ministers from 40 countries to meet today in Rammstein to discuss arming Ukraine

Germany will authorize the delivery of tanks to Ukraine, govt. source tells AFP, in what would be a clear switch in Berlin’s policy on military backing for Kyiv.

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Israel -

Continued Palestinian unrest in the West Bank combined with tensions that rocket fire will resume from Gaza.
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