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Globalism / Great Reset -
Still keeping this on the radar screen. The WHO is attempting to push through changes to a treaty that would give them global control over health worldwide. This helps fulfill some of the goals of the WEF’s Great Reset. It is a massive power grab that takes away a nation’s sovereign rights to determine its own health standards.
A decision will be made by vote on May 22-28 at WHO World Health Assembly. Two-thirds of the US Senate does not have to vote for it.
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Wuhan virus -
Pfizer indicated in their documents that have been released that 100 micrograms of Moderna’s mRNA vaccine is enough to damage a person’s immune system. This is in line with the statistics and data coming out showing those who have taken these shots are suffering from immune system degradation, or VAIDS (vaccine-induced acquired immunodeficiency syndrome.)
The recent batch of Pfizer documents released by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), found that the company actually knew the COVID “vaccine” of its fellow Big Pharma company, Moderna, can damage the immune system.
However, Pfizer also knew that their shots also caused immunosuppression.
OBSERVATION - Pfizer and Moderna have exemption from lawsuits for its wuhan jabs. IIRC, this exemption can be voided if the company has committed fraud. Burying these adverse results could constitute fraud.
A strange outbreak of severe hepatitis in young children has been reported in the U.S. and Europe, puzzling public health officials. The children were tested for common hepatitis viruses, but they were not to blame, leaving the cause unknown.
In a news release, Graham Cooke, a professor of infectious diseases at Imperial College London, suggested that if the hepatitis was caused by COVID-19, “it would be surprising not to see it more widely distributed across the country given the high prevalence of (COVID-19) at the moment.”
Potential links to COVID-19 injections appear not to have been widely explored yet, even though the shots have been previously associated with the development of hepatitis. British health officials did state, however, that none of the affected children had received a COVID-19 shot. However, there are links to the jab and hepatitis. A Journal of Hepatology paper noted that seven additional cases of suspected immune-mediated hepatitis have been reported following COVID-19 shots Researchers have uncovered innate immune suppression triggered by COVID-19 shots and other disturbances that could cause liver disease.
OBSERVATION - Developing story I noted earlier. Some believe the lockdown/isolation removed basic immunological development in kids through build up of resistance from general interaction (ie playing).
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Economy -
The Colorado River, which is experiencing persistent drought, provides water to 40 million Americans and 5.5 million acres of farmland in the American Southwest. Lack of irrigation water has led farmers to forgo planting large swathes of their land. With conditions expected to worsen, food prices and availability will continue to be affected.
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Invasion of Illegals -
The Biden administration has been temporarily barred by a federal judge from ending the pandemic health policy known as Title 42 on May 23. The move delays what Homeland Security officials predicted would prompt an unprecedented rush of migrants to the U.S.-Mexico border and is a major win for the three Republican states that brought the lawsuit in early April, which 18 other states have since joined.
The lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana. Judge Robert Summerhays announced a temporary restraining order in the case Monday, calling on the Department of Justice and states to work out the details in continuing the policy.
OBSERVATION - This is a temporary order but a win of one battle of the war. However, biden will likely ignore any lower level judge and follow its transjectory of removing the ban pending an eventual appeal to the appeal to the USSC.
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Biden / Harris watch -
biden administration concerned twitter will allow Trump to have his account back.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Still seeing a lot of low rumblings over concerns that biden will initiate a false flag event of some kind before the midterm in order to affect those elections to maintain democrat power. Threat remains amorphous.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -
Twitter board accepts Musk’s offer. More liberal heads exploding.
Twitter locked down the ability of its employees to make changes to the platform after it was revealed that @elonmusk has reached a deal to buy the company. The lockdown is to prevent activist employees from sabotaging the platform as revenge for the deal.
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China -
US officials say that the US won’t rule out military action if China establishes base in Solomon Islands.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
North Korea held a highly-expected military parade on Monday. That’s according to the country’s state media. It marks the 90th anniversary of the founding of its military. North Korea says columns of “latest tactical missile units,” tanks, columns of “strategic missiles,” a column of “super-large MLRS capable of “successive strike” and others were rolled out as well, along with Hwasong-17 ICBM. Kim Jong Un in a speech given at the parade vowed to bolster his nuclear capability at “maximum speed.”
OBSERVATION - May seem trivia, but such parades provide western intelligence with insight to NK tactical and strategic weapons development.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 62)
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia is close to completing redeployment of forces and is expected this new offensive soon.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Russia continues to rattle the nuclear saber. At this stage, 62 days into the war, the threatening effects have worn off and NATO/West is accelerating the quantity and types of equipment being sent to Ukraine, including aircraft.
Siberian wildfires are burning unchecked because Russian military units which usually fight them are at war.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers forecast to be letting up towards the end of the 10 day forecast. This will allow some drying out of muddy, off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
RUMINT -
Some of the pro-Russian Luhansk, Ukraine “LHR” leadership gathered for a meeting with their collaborator “Mayor” and there was a gas explosion. And they are all dead.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Action in the Donbas region are in a state of general status quo. Russians stage attacks, in some cases gaining a limited amount of territory or repulsed. Attacks largely constrained to road network. Ukraine conducts selective counter attacks regaining territory and strikes against exposed Russian units and logistical convoys. Overall, Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine took little to no additional territory overnight.
Russian forces resumed ground attacks against Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant in addition to intensive bombing assaults.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Russian forces maintained their positions around Kharkiv city and continued artillery and aviation strikes on Kharkiv city and the surrounding settlements.
Russian forces continued to mount unsuccessful ground offensives southward from Izyum toward Barvinkove and Slovyansk. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults against Koroviy Yar and Rubizhne and that fighting is ongoing in Popasna.
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian troops continue to shell Azovstal in Mariupol and have launched ground attacks again. Russian artillery continues to inflict massive damage on civilian infrastructure in areas of Mariupol that are already under Russian control.
Continuation of ground attacks will deny Russia the forces necessary to reinforce the Donbas campaign.
Third mass grave found 5 km from Mariupol in the village Staryi Krym. The first excavated trenches in the cemetery near Staryi Krym appeared on March 24, after the village was occupied by the Russian military.
Russian troops using a Su-24 aircraft, tanks, GRAD MLRS, howitzers, 120 mm mortars and large-caliber machine guns attacked following cities: Novodanylivka, Kamyanske, Pavlivka, Orikhiv, Novoandriyivka, Huliaipole, Charivne, Huliaipilske, Vremivka, Novosilka, Poltavka, Volne Pole, Zaliznychne, Uspenivka, and Belogorye. This is a continuation of heavy artillery preparation along the LOC for any northward push out of separatist held territory towards forces attempting to push southward from the Khariv front.
Crimea Front -
Russia conducted limited attacks west toward Mykolaiv and north toward Kryvyi Rih . Overall, though, Ukraine is maintaining the initiative through effective counter attacks.
Russian missile strike hit bridge over Dniester at Liman in Odesa region. This is a key bridge connecting parts of Ukraine divided by the Dnister. Its destruction will impact support from Ukrainian forces west of Odesa.
Western Ukraine -
Yesterdays attacks on railroad infrastructure continue to be cleaned up, but Russia hasn’t followed this up.
Russian Territory -
Ukrainian artillery has stepped up its cross border attacks on Russia. Overnight, damage was reported in three cities - Golovchino, Otradnoe village of Belgorod region as result of shelling
Shells landed near Otradnoe and Nekhoteevka, all villages in Belgorod region of Russia.
OBSERVATION - No real news on if the artillery impacts any real military associated targets. If not, what is the purpose of these attacks?
Follow up - Some Ukraine sources are saying that the attack on fuel tanks in the Russian city of Bryansk, were carried out with TB2 Bayraktar. and the TB2 that was shot down while returning to Ukraine immediately after the attack.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - More of the same. Russia launches many , uncoordinated attacks into the Donbas region and face limited to no success rate while losing a lot of men and equipment. We are weeks now into this redirection and focus on the Donbas and Russia still shows difficulties organizing a much larger operaton than it is currently conducting.
Heavy artillery/air barrages along the LOC with the separatist region are still considered to be a precursor to an attempted major offensive to the north to encircle the Donbas region and any Ukraine forces there. Russia ground forces in this area have been underperforming so far and reinforcements from Mariupol have questionable combat readiness or capability.
Speaking of Mariupol, seeing Russian resumption of ground assaults into the steel plant complex. Russian calculations must indicate that Ukraine holdouts have more resources than they initially thought and siege warfare won’t work.
Russia has done little to stop/impede the flow of supplies to support Ukraine’s war effort. It seems Russia cannot work an effective interdiction plan while trying to capture Donbas. In many ways, Ukraine is in better shape now than they were two months ago. On the flip side, Russia has to rely on more unreliable war reserves.
The Transnistria events pose a interesting question of actions/responses. The separatist/Russian forces in Transnistria are unlikely to attack into Ukraine, but possibly into Moldova, raising potential conflict with Romania.
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Moldova/Transnistria -
Added this category in proximity to the above Russia and Ukraine sections because of the apparent link to the actions there. Events here are developing rapidly.
What the heck is happening in the Moldovan region of Transnistria! Overnight, Russian Media reported that Special Forces in the Moldovan Break-Away Region of Transnistria have been put on “High Alert” to Counter Threats from Foreign and Domestic Groups, this comes after explosions have been reported in 2 Major Cities in the Region, Parcani ( at a military unit/base) and Tiraspol (Ministry of State Security building). Additionally, two significant radio/cell towers were attacked. In breaking - there are unconfirmed reports that another “explosion” occurred in the Tiraspol , Transnistria at a Russian military airfield this morning.
The so-called Security Council of Transnistria reportedly called these events “terrorist attacks”. Russian backed separatists controlling Transnistria have announced that they’re “going to announce important decisions regarding the security of the country”
Locals are already panicking with traffic jams at “checkpoints” between Russian backed separatist in controlled “Transnistria” and Moldova , as people begin to flee Transnistria”.
Moldova’s President is convening the country’s “defense council” over the incidents in the regime controlled Transnistria region of Moldova.
The overnight chatter speculated on who was behind these attacks. 1) Ukraine special forces 2) Russian ‘False Flag” and 3) Moldovan elements.
Hard to say at this stage, however a “false flag” is leading in my opinion. Almost certainly a false flag like in Donetsk and Luhansk that helped with pretexts to invade Ukraine, this time it may give pretexts to their goals of taking Transnistria in Moldova after going through Odesa in southern Ukraine
Let’s put this in context, just last week Russia indicated that the Russian Phase 2 is a land bridge encompassing all of southern Ukraine to the Transnistria region of Moldova. The Moldovan Bureau of Reintegration believes that the explosions in the building of the local Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol (Transnistria) are “a pretext for creating tension in the Transnistrian region” and an excuse for further intervention by Russia. Moldova has long been concerned Russia could stage provocations as an excuse for further intervention.
Serious questions surround any Russian intervention
1. Pro-Russian Transnistria forces are only a few thousand locals that are assessed as being poorly trained and equipped. As such, they are assessed as unlikely to be utilized to join the fight in Ukraine.
2. Deeply engaged in southeastern Ukraine, what forces do Russia have that can affect any intervention? Two recent developments may shed light. FIrst, the Russian destruction of the bridge over Dniester, restricting east-west transfer of troops and the availability of amphibious forces. Some speculate Russian troops could land in that area southwest of Odessa, with assistance of Russian “peacekeeping” brigade in Transnistria. Any landing would be strongly resisted with bolstered Ukrainan anti ship missile systems.
3. Moldova proper doesn’t have the military force to recapture the Transnistria region. If supported by more Russian forces, separatists could take more land from Moldova.
Should Russia open this new ‘front’, the risk of greater NATO involvement increases as Moldova has deep ties to Romania. Barring huge Ukraine misjudgment, the Russian amphibious forces would be seriously mauled and combat effectiveness questionable. Resupply by water would be tenuous, Russia would be forced to use airfields in Transnistria to supply logistics.
Overall, not sure how this is going to play out. Definitely Russia is looking to pull in forces from Transnistria in some manner. However, Russian forces are very stretched thinly dealing with the Donbas offensive making any kind of combat actions initiated via an amphibious assault or even air lift of troops into Transnistria, very risky with little chance of success. Russian media reported this morning that the Russian government ‘would like to avoid a scenario in which Moscow would have to intervene’ in Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region.
Where the greatest risk rises is intervention by Romania to protect Romanian speaking citizens (the same excuse Russia uses), bringing Russia now into direct confrontation with NATO via Article 5.
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Europe / NATO General -
Two newspapers - one Swedish, the other Finnish - have reported the governments of Sweden and Finland have agreed to submit NATO applications at the same time and that it will happen in the middle of next month.
NATO warships arrived at a Finnish port for training exercises.
Defence ministers from 40 countries to meet today in Rammstein to discuss arming Ukraine
Germany will authorize the delivery of tanks to Ukraine, govt. source tells AFP, in what would be a clear switch in Berlin’s policy on military backing for Kyiv.
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Israel -
Continued Palestinian unrest in the West Bank combined with tensions that rocket fire will resume from Gaza.
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Wuhan virus -
Before omicron, one-third of Americans had been infected with the coronavirus, but by the end of February, that rate had climbed to nearly 60 percent — including about 75 percent of kids and 60 percent of people age 18 to 49, according to federal health data released Tuesday.
The data from blood tests offers the first evidence that over half the U.S. population, or 189 million people have been infected at least once since the pandemic began — double the number reflected in official case counts. Officials cautioned, however, that the data, in a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, does not indicate people have protection against the virus going forward, especially against increasingly transmissible variants.
“We continue to recommend that everyone be up to date on their vaccinations, get your primary series and booster, when eligible,” CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said during a media briefing.
OBSERVATION - Evidence that CDC records are purposefully messed up and further condemnation of the jab. The ‘get your jab’ mantra is falling on increasingly deaf ears since it is pretty well established that they don’t work.
A team of researchers from health agencies in Finland, Denmark, Sweden, and Norway found that rates of myocarditis and pericarditis, two forms of potentially life-threatening heart inflammation, were higher in those who had received one or two doses of either mRNA-based vaccine – Pfizer’s or Moderna’s. From the JAMA document -
“Question Is SARS-CoV-2 messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccination associated with risk of myocarditis?
- Findings In a cohort study of 23.1 million residents across 4 Nordic countries, risk of myocarditis after the first and second doses of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines was highest in young males aged 16 to 24 years after the second dose. For young males receiving 2 doses of the same vaccine, data were compatible with between 4 and 7 excess events in 28 days per 100 000 vaccinees after second-dose BNT162b2, and between 9 and 28 per 100 000 vaccinees after second-dose mRNA-1273.
- Meaning The risk of myocarditis in this large cohort study was highest in young males after the second SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose, and this risk should be balanced against the benefits of protecting against severe COVID-19 disease.”
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2791253
OBSERVATION - It will be nearly impossible for peer reviewed studies to be stopped at this stage of the wuhan infestation. What to expect are studies like this to be buried under more ‘pressing’ news like the Ukraine war.
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Economy -
The California legislature is going to miss a May 1 deadline to kill the annual summer increase in its 51-cent gas tax , Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office said.
The increase goes against Newsom’s January promise to motorists that he would suspend any tax increases given that the state pays the highest amount in the nation, both in taxes and per gallon. Currently, the average price to fill up is $5.69, according to AAA .
OBSERVATION - Remember, Kalifoirnians has the opportunity to remove a major gas tax, but didn’t. You get what you vote for. . . . .
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Biden / Harris watch -
quadruple jabbed harris has wuhan. . . . .
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
It is being reported that it will be years before Raytheon Technologies can build new Stinger shoulder-fired missiles due to a dwindling supply of weapons parts, the company’s CEO said Tuesday.
The U.S. has shipped Stingers to Ukraine’s military, which has used them to shoot down Russian aircraft. But there’s only a finite supply as Raytheon has not made Stinger missiles for the U.S. military in nearly two decades.
“We’re going to have to go out and redesign some of the electronics in the missile and the seeker head,” Raytheon Technologies CEO Greg Hayes told investment analysts Tuesday during the company’s quarterly earnings call. “That’s going to take us a little bit of time.”
OBSERVATIONS - Concerns are being raised over the depletion of war stockpiles of this and other munitions, like the Javelin ATGM system.
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China -
The USS Sampson transited the Taiwan Straits, drawing China’s ire.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is designed primarily to deter aggression, but if necessary, it “will have to decisively accomplish its unexpected second mission,” Kim Jong Un said in a speech in Pyongyang on Monday night.
Kim did not elaborate on this “second mission,” but he appeared to be suggesting that his Stalinist regime does not rule out the possibility of a pre-emptive first strike under certain circumstances.
S Korean president reportedly spoke to the need for SK to develop systems to counter NK missiles and restore a military balance to deter NK aggressions.
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Japan -
A Chinese Navy ship has entered Japan’s waters near the Kagoshima Prefecture islands according to Kyodo. The Japanese government lodged a protest with China through diplomatic means in response. The Chinese survey ship entered into Japanese territorial waters at 11pm Tuesday from west of Kuchinoerabu Island and left the waters south of Yakushima Island at 2:10am on Wednesday. It’s the first intrusion confirmed by the Defense Ministry since last November.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 63)
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Putin met with UN secretary general António Guterres in the Kremlin in the room with the long table. Putin says Russia won’t sign a peace deal with Ukraine unless it first agrees to “solve the issues of Crimea and Donbas” at least on the working level, meaning accepting losing those parts of its territory for good.
During a Tuesday interview with state media, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, said that if the U.S. and other Western allies of Ukraine continue to provide the country with weapons, the risk of the war escalating into a nuclear conflict “should not be underestimated.” Lavrov said that by providing weapons to Ukraine, NATO nations were already “in essence engaged in war with Russia.”
OBSERVATION - Continued threats against the nations providing arms to Ukraine. It is hard to conceive the Russia will actually use a nuke at this stage of the war. To do so would ensure NATO direct involvement and start WW3.
Logistics -
- Ukraine appears to be settling in to attacking Russian facilities near its border.
Economic Impacts -
- Gazprom reports that it had completely suspended gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland due to non-payment in rubles
- The Ruble has been able to recover from drop in value from the initial invasion of Ukraine.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying..
RUMINT -
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian tactics in the Izyum region (Khariv front) are showing evidence of better organization and coordination of attacks along with increased deployment of Russian combat units into the battle. Widespread Russian missile strikes across the central and western Ukraine to disrupt resupply efforts. Heavy artillery bombardments of areas adjacent to the LOC in southern Ukraine.
In the last 24 hours, Russian troops shelled Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kherson, and Odesa oblasts.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Russian troops shelled Esman community in Sumy region.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Russian forces continued to shell the entire frontline in Donetsk and Luhansk and made marginal advances during ground offensives. Along the line from Izyum to Rubizhne, Russian troops are pushing down multiple roughly parallel roads within supporting distance of one another, allowing them to bring more combat power to bear than their previous tactics had supported. This has resulted in better results and territory gained over that last 24 hours than seen since the start of the war. Russian forces are moving slowly and in a methodic manner in these regions and no evidence of a significant breakout at this stage.
Russians sent two battalion tactical groups to the city of Izyum. They also deployed two missile divisions of OTRK “Iskander-M” . Russian troops captured the outskirts of the settlement of Velyka Komyshuvakha, took control of the Zavody and conducted offensive operations in the direction of Barvinkovo. Russian troops have established control over Novotoshkivske, and conducting an offensive in the direction of Nizhne and Orikhovo
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian forces are continuing to attack the Azovstal steelworks, where fighters and some civilians are holed up, an aide to the city’s mayor says. US officials say that Russia “still very focused” on Mariupol and has not moved 12 battalion tactical groups out.
There is also evidence that there are pockets in the city still under the control of Ukraine forces still executing strikes against the Russians.
Russian army fired along the LOC in the directions of Chervone, Pavlivka, Vremivka, Novopil, Mali Shcherbaki, Privilne, Orikhiv, Gulyaypole, Kamyanske, Novodanilivka with the use of a tank, GRAD MLRS, howitzers, 120 mm mortars and machine guns
Russian independent news outlet Meduza reported that local residents reported multiple explosions lasting several hours at an ammunition depot in the town of Irmino, under Russian occupation since 2014.
Crimea Front -
Russian forces continued to shell the entire line of contact on the Southern Axis and are carrying out ground offensives in the direction of Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih. There are reports that Russian forces suffered losses in the towns of Novodmytrivka and Bilousove, both within 20 kilometers of the Kherson-Mykolaiv administrative border.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly been preparing defenses in Zaporizhzhia in preparation for a potential Russian attack from the south.
Russian missiles hit Odesa, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv. Russian also targeted with a missile strike for a second time a bridge over Dniester at Liman in Odesa region. This is a key bridge connecting parts of Ukraine divided by the Dnister. Its destruction will impact support from Ukrainian forces west of Odesa - see discussion under “OUTLOOK”
Western Ukraine -
Russia’s defense ministry said its Kalibr missiles hit an arms depot in Zaporizhzhia and 58 other targets overnight
Russian Territory -
Military warehouses caught fire and exploded at Staraya Nelidovka village of Belgorod region
Governor of Kursk region says air defense worked overnight in region, reportedly shooting down a Ukrainian TB2 drone.
Missile launch observed this morning near Valuyki, Belgorod region. Possible air defense missile.
Explosions this morning in Voronezh, Russia, possibly due to air defense. Small drone was destroyed over Voronezh this morning - Governor of the region. It is over 250kms to non-occupied parts of Ukraine to Voronezh. Voronezh hosts a Russian airbase “Baltimor” with Su-34 fighter-bombers.
Dnipropetrovsk region. Reports Ukrainians fired on the Zelenodolsk community
Russian air defense reportedly targeted an object over Belgorod at 3:35 am
OBSERVATION - These pin prick strikes into Russian areas near the Ukraine border is forcing Russia to divert attention and resources to secure areas it previously considered secure. It is a big region needing additional protections and there are a lot of gaps that Ukraine can exploit.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - Russian forces have ramped up offensive operations in the Izyum to Rubizhne region. Though still mostly road bound, Russia has been able to start multiple lines of mutually supporting attacks that may seriously threaten the northern flank of the Donbas region. Relatively dry conditions for the next several days will favor Russian operations. This is the most significant threat Russia has been able to develop since the start of the war.
The southern pincer of the Donbas offensive is still spinning its wheels. Areas along the LOC continue to receive heavy artillery/bombing to soften Ukraine defenses. A likely contributor is that BTGs are still tied up in Mariupol due to resumed combat to clear out the steel plant.
Raising a red flag on further analysis on the damage to the bridge at Liman. This isolates a pocket of Ukraine bordered on the southwest by Romania, northwest by Moldova and an inlet of the Black Sea to the northeast. An amphibious operation against this pocket could make a quick run towards Moldova while Ukraine troops in the region are essentially cut off from reinforcements from the Odesa region. See on this link
This potential landing site is heavily covered by Ukraine forces, but because it is now essentially cut off from the Odea region, there is a possibility that Russian may be able to concentrate enough combat forces to force a landing that could connect to Transnistria and provide an end around to encircle Odesa from the west while Russian renew their eastward push from the vicinity of Kherson. The two motorized rifle battalions Russia has illegally maintained in Transnistria since the end of the Cold War are not likely sufficient to mount a credible attack on Odesa by themselves, nor are the Russians likely to be able to reinforce them enough to allow them to do so. They could support more limited attacks to the northwest of Odesa, or push south to support an amphibious assault.
Need to monitor this option more closely. Currently there is no evidence of an impending amphibious operation and Russia has its hands full in Donbas and may not have he ability to support this kind of operation until Donbas is resolved.
Ukraine has adjacent regions of Russia responding to its attacks, and I expect more select targets of opportunity such as other petroleum and munitions storage facilities. May well spread to key rail lines providing support to the northern Donbas offensive. These attacks have the Russia people jumpy and are forcing authorities to get resources diverted to protect them.
Finally, there are indications that Russian forces intend to hold referenda to establish “people’s republics” in occupied areas of southern Ukraine raising the possibility that Putin intends to unveil an array of new “independent” “people’s republics” as part of a Victory Day celebration.
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Moldova/Transnistria -
Events here are developing rapidly.
Border Checkpoints from Transnistria into Moldova are continuing to be packed by people fleeing from what is being seen as a possible coming War in the Region, Due to Heightened Moldovan Security Measures crossing into Moldova is getting much more difficult.
Russian-backed separatists in Transnistria, say shots were fired from Ukraine overnight towards a village that houses a large ammunition depot in the region.
Residents of the unrecognized “Transnistrian Moldavian Republic” received fake SMS from ostensibly Ukraine’s armed forces, warning of a “missile and artillery” strike.
OBSERVATION - The attacks are considered to be false flag attacks . Developing situation may result in Putin recognizing the self-styled Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) in Transnistria as he recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. The PMR could then ask for additional Russian protection, and Putin could attempt to send some additional forces or capabilities to Transnistria. How he would do this would have to rely on airlift into Russian controlled airfields in Transnistria or a more dangerous gamble of an amphibious operation to link the region to the Black Sea. Such would expand Russians conflict to Moldova and possible neighboring Romania, making chances for NATO involvement increase even higher.
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Europe / NATO General -
Gazprom confirms its cut gas to Poland and Bulgaria, citing nonpayment, per Reuters wire. Threats going out to other EU countries of the same.
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Israel -
Israeli air strikes targeted a Hezbollah weapons shipment at a military airport south of Damascus.
Intense clashes between Israelis and Palestinians after Israeli police storm the Jenin Refugee Camp, calls for citizens to come to the camp to “defend it”.
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