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Wuhan virus -
Before omicron, one-third of Americans had been infected with the coronavirus, but by the end of February, that rate had climbed to nearly 60 percent — including about 75 percent of kids and 60 percent of people age 18 to 49, according to federal health data released Tuesday.
The data from blood tests offers the first evidence that over half the U.S. population, or 189 million people have been infected at least once since the pandemic began — double the number reflected in official case counts. Officials cautioned, however, that the data, in a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, does not indicate people have protection against the virus going forward, especially against increasingly transmissible variants.
“We continue to recommend that everyone be up to date on their vaccinations, get your primary series and booster, when eligible,” CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said during a media briefing.
OBSERVATION - Evidence that CDC records are purposefully messed up and further condemnation of the jab. The ‘get your jab’ mantra is falling on increasingly deaf ears since it is pretty well established that they don’t work.
A team of researchers from health agencies in Finland, Denmark, Sweden, and Norway found that rates of myocarditis and pericarditis, two forms of potentially life-threatening heart inflammation, were higher in those who had received one or two doses of either mRNA-based vaccine – Pfizer’s or Moderna’s. From the JAMA document -
“Question Is SARS-CoV-2 messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccination associated with risk of myocarditis?
- Findings In a cohort study of 23.1 million residents across 4 Nordic countries, risk of myocarditis after the first and second doses of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines was highest in young males aged 16 to 24 years after the second dose. For young males receiving 2 doses of the same vaccine, data were compatible with between 4 and 7 excess events in 28 days per 100 000 vaccinees after second-dose BNT162b2, and between 9 and 28 per 100 000 vaccinees after second-dose mRNA-1273.
- Meaning The risk of myocarditis in this large cohort study was highest in young males after the second SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose, and this risk should be balanced against the benefits of protecting against severe COVID-19 disease.”
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2791253
OBSERVATION - It will be nearly impossible for peer reviewed studies to be stopped at this stage of the wuhan infestation. What to expect are studies like this to be buried under more ‘pressing’ news like the Ukraine war.
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Economy -
The California legislature is going to miss a May 1 deadline to kill the annual summer increase in its 51-cent gas tax , Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office said.
The increase goes against Newsom’s January promise to motorists that he would suspend any tax increases given that the state pays the highest amount in the nation, both in taxes and per gallon. Currently, the average price to fill up is $5.69, according to AAA .
OBSERVATION - Remember, Kalifoirnians has the opportunity to remove a major gas tax, but didn’t. You get what you vote for. . . . .
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Biden / Harris watch -
quadruple jabbed harris has wuhan. . . . .
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
It is being reported that it will be years before Raytheon Technologies can build new Stinger shoulder-fired missiles due to a dwindling supply of weapons parts, the company’s CEO said Tuesday.
The U.S. has shipped Stingers to Ukraine’s military, which has used them to shoot down Russian aircraft. But there’s only a finite supply as Raytheon has not made Stinger missiles for the U.S. military in nearly two decades.
“We’re going to have to go out and redesign some of the electronics in the missile and the seeker head,” Raytheon Technologies CEO Greg Hayes told investment analysts Tuesday during the company’s quarterly earnings call. “That’s going to take us a little bit of time.”
OBSERVATIONS - Concerns are being raised over the depletion of war stockpiles of this and other munitions, like the Javelin ATGM system.
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China -
The USS Sampson transited the Taiwan Straits, drawing China’s ire.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is designed primarily to deter aggression, but if necessary, it “will have to decisively accomplish its unexpected second mission,” Kim Jong Un said in a speech in Pyongyang on Monday night.
Kim did not elaborate on this “second mission,” but he appeared to be suggesting that his Stalinist regime does not rule out the possibility of a pre-emptive first strike under certain circumstances.
S Korean president reportedly spoke to the need for SK to develop systems to counter NK missiles and restore a military balance to deter NK aggressions.
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Japan -
A Chinese Navy ship has entered Japan’s waters near the Kagoshima Prefecture islands according to Kyodo. The Japanese government lodged a protest with China through diplomatic means in response. The Chinese survey ship entered into Japanese territorial waters at 11pm Tuesday from west of Kuchinoerabu Island and left the waters south of Yakushima Island at 2:10am on Wednesday. It’s the first intrusion confirmed by the Defense Ministry since last November.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 63)
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Putin met with UN secretary general António Guterres in the Kremlin in the room with the long table. Putin says Russia won’t sign a peace deal with Ukraine unless it first agrees to “solve the issues of Crimea and Donbas” at least on the working level, meaning accepting losing those parts of its territory for good.
During a Tuesday interview with state media, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, said that if the U.S. and other Western allies of Ukraine continue to provide the country with weapons, the risk of the war escalating into a nuclear conflict “should not be underestimated.” Lavrov said that by providing weapons to Ukraine, NATO nations were already “in essence engaged in war with Russia.”
OBSERVATION - Continued threats against the nations providing arms to Ukraine. It is hard to conceive the Russia will actually use a nuke at this stage of the war. To do so would ensure NATO direct involvement and start WW3.
Logistics -
- Ukraine appears to be settling in to attacking Russian facilities near its border.
Economic Impacts -
- Gazprom reports that it had completely suspended gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland due to non-payment in rubles
- The Ruble has been able to recover from drop in value from the initial invasion of Ukraine.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying..
RUMINT -
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian tactics in the Izyum region (Khariv front) are showing evidence of better organization and coordination of attacks along with increased deployment of Russian combat units into the battle. Widespread Russian missile strikes across the central and western Ukraine to disrupt resupply efforts. Heavy artillery bombardments of areas adjacent to the LOC in southern Ukraine.
In the last 24 hours, Russian troops shelled Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kherson, and Odesa oblasts.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Russian troops shelled Esman community in Sumy region.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Russian forces continued to shell the entire frontline in Donetsk and Luhansk and made marginal advances during ground offensives. Along the line from Izyum to Rubizhne, Russian troops are pushing down multiple roughly parallel roads within supporting distance of one another, allowing them to bring more combat power to bear than their previous tactics had supported. This has resulted in better results and territory gained over that last 24 hours than seen since the start of the war. Russian forces are moving slowly and in a methodic manner in these regions and no evidence of a significant breakout at this stage.
Russians sent two battalion tactical groups to the city of Izyum. They also deployed two missile divisions of OTRK “Iskander-M” . Russian troops captured the outskirts of the settlement of Velyka Komyshuvakha, took control of the Zavody and conducted offensive operations in the direction of Barvinkovo. Russian troops have established control over Novotoshkivske, and conducting an offensive in the direction of Nizhne and Orikhovo
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian forces are continuing to attack the Azovstal steelworks, where fighters and some civilians are holed up, an aide to the city’s mayor says. US officials say that Russia “still very focused” on Mariupol and has not moved 12 battalion tactical groups out.
There is also evidence that there are pockets in the city still under the control of Ukraine forces still executing strikes against the Russians.
Russian army fired along the LOC in the directions of Chervone, Pavlivka, Vremivka, Novopil, Mali Shcherbaki, Privilne, Orikhiv, Gulyaypole, Kamyanske, Novodanilivka with the use of a tank, GRAD MLRS, howitzers, 120 mm mortars and machine guns
Russian independent news outlet Meduza reported that local residents reported multiple explosions lasting several hours at an ammunition depot in the town of Irmino, under Russian occupation since 2014.
Crimea Front -
Russian forces continued to shell the entire line of contact on the Southern Axis and are carrying out ground offensives in the direction of Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih. There are reports that Russian forces suffered losses in the towns of Novodmytrivka and Bilousove, both within 20 kilometers of the Kherson-Mykolaiv administrative border.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly been preparing defenses in Zaporizhzhia in preparation for a potential Russian attack from the south.
Russian missiles hit Odesa, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv. Russian also targeted with a missile strike for a second time a bridge over Dniester at Liman in Odesa region. This is a key bridge connecting parts of Ukraine divided by the Dnister. Its destruction will impact support from Ukrainian forces west of Odesa - see discussion under “OUTLOOK”
Western Ukraine -
Russia’s defense ministry said its Kalibr missiles hit an arms depot in Zaporizhzhia and 58 other targets overnight
Russian Territory -
Military warehouses caught fire and exploded at Staraya Nelidovka village of Belgorod region
Governor of Kursk region says air defense worked overnight in region, reportedly shooting down a Ukrainian TB2 drone.
Missile launch observed this morning near Valuyki, Belgorod region. Possible air defense missile.
Explosions this morning in Voronezh, Russia, possibly due to air defense. Small drone was destroyed over Voronezh this morning - Governor of the region. It is over 250kms to non-occupied parts of Ukraine to Voronezh. Voronezh hosts a Russian airbase “Baltimor” with Su-34 fighter-bombers.
Dnipropetrovsk region. Reports Ukrainians fired on the Zelenodolsk community
Russian air defense reportedly targeted an object over Belgorod at 3:35 am
OBSERVATION - These pin prick strikes into Russian areas near the Ukraine border is forcing Russia to divert attention and resources to secure areas it previously considered secure. It is a big region needing additional protections and there are a lot of gaps that Ukraine can exploit.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - Russian forces have ramped up offensive operations in the Izyum to Rubizhne region. Though still mostly road bound, Russia has been able to start multiple lines of mutually supporting attacks that may seriously threaten the northern flank of the Donbas region. Relatively dry conditions for the next several days will favor Russian operations. This is the most significant threat Russia has been able to develop since the start of the war.
The southern pincer of the Donbas offensive is still spinning its wheels. Areas along the LOC continue to receive heavy artillery/bombing to soften Ukraine defenses. A likely contributor is that BTGs are still tied up in Mariupol due to resumed combat to clear out the steel plant.
Raising a red flag on further analysis on the damage to the bridge at Liman. This isolates a pocket of Ukraine bordered on the southwest by Romania, northwest by Moldova and an inlet of the Black Sea to the northeast. An amphibious operation against this pocket could make a quick run towards Moldova while Ukraine troops in the region are essentially cut off from reinforcements from the Odesa region. See on this link
This potential landing site is heavily covered by Ukraine forces, but because it is now essentially cut off from the Odea region, there is a possibility that Russian may be able to concentrate enough combat forces to force a landing that could connect to Transnistria and provide an end around to encircle Odesa from the west while Russian renew their eastward push from the vicinity of Kherson. The two motorized rifle battalions Russia has illegally maintained in Transnistria since the end of the Cold War are not likely sufficient to mount a credible attack on Odesa by themselves, nor are the Russians likely to be able to reinforce them enough to allow them to do so. They could support more limited attacks to the northwest of Odesa, or push south to support an amphibious assault.
Need to monitor this option more closely. Currently there is no evidence of an impending amphibious operation and Russia has its hands full in Donbas and may not have he ability to support this kind of operation until Donbas is resolved.
Ukraine has adjacent regions of Russia responding to its attacks, and I expect more select targets of opportunity such as other petroleum and munitions storage facilities. May well spread to key rail lines providing support to the northern Donbas offensive. These attacks have the Russia people jumpy and are forcing authorities to get resources diverted to protect them.
Finally, there are indications that Russian forces intend to hold referenda to establish “people’s republics” in occupied areas of southern Ukraine raising the possibility that Putin intends to unveil an array of new “independent” “people’s republics” as part of a Victory Day celebration.
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Moldova/Transnistria -
Events here are developing rapidly.
Border Checkpoints from Transnistria into Moldova are continuing to be packed by people fleeing from what is being seen as a possible coming War in the Region, Due to Heightened Moldovan Security Measures crossing into Moldova is getting much more difficult.
Russian-backed separatists in Transnistria, say shots were fired from Ukraine overnight towards a village that houses a large ammunition depot in the region.
Residents of the unrecognized “Transnistrian Moldavian Republic” received fake SMS from ostensibly Ukraine’s armed forces, warning of a “missile and artillery” strike.
OBSERVATION - The attacks are considered to be false flag attacks . Developing situation may result in Putin recognizing the self-styled Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) in Transnistria as he recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. The PMR could then ask for additional Russian protection, and Putin could attempt to send some additional forces or capabilities to Transnistria. How he would do this would have to rely on airlift into Russian controlled airfields in Transnistria or a more dangerous gamble of an amphibious operation to link the region to the Black Sea. Such would expand Russians conflict to Moldova and possible neighboring Romania, making chances for NATO involvement increase even higher.
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Europe / NATO General -
Gazprom confirms its cut gas to Poland and Bulgaria, citing nonpayment, per Reuters wire. Threats going out to other EU countries of the same.
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Israel -
Israeli air strikes targeted a Hezbollah weapons shipment at a military airport south of Damascus.
Intense clashes between Israelis and Palestinians after Israeli police storm the Jenin Refugee Camp, calls for citizens to come to the camp to “defend it”.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is creating a “Disinformation Governance Board” to control narratives combat whatever they deem ‘misinformation’ before the 2022 midterms and beyond. According to Politico, the new entity will focus on ‘misinformation related to homeland security, focused specifically on irregular migration and Russia.” It will be headed by executive director Nina Jankowicz, a socialist who’s spent her time disseminating false narrative on a number of subjects - like hunter biden’s laptop was a russian plant - a story destroyed by current revelations.
OBSERVATION - ALL HAIL THE Ministry of Truth. The scope of the board is yet to be announced, but there should be no doubt that Jankowicz could use this role to suppress free speech on U.S. social media platforms under the guise of a counter-propaganda effort.
Probably mentioned before but worth repeating. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has pounced on the opportunity by pushing its plan for nations to curb their oil use. IEA calling for energy “lockdowns” and radical measures such as banning the use of private cars in cities on Sundays. Other measures proposed in the agency’s “A 10-Point Plan to Cut Oil Use” include reducing speed limits, working from home, cutting business air travel, and imposing an SUV “tax.”
OBSERVATION - The ease that the wuhan emergency was applied, now global warming cultists are plotting the same thing.
British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss called for a “Global NATO,” citing security situations in Europe and in Asia. “We also reject the false choice between Euro-Atlantic security and Indo-Pacific security. In the modern world we need both, a global NATO,” Truss said. She continued, “NATO must have a global outlook, ready to tackle global threats. We need to pre-empt threats in the Indo-Pacific, working with our allies like Japan and Australia to ensure the Pacific is protected.”
OBSERVATION - The GGR will need muscle projected globally.
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Economy -
Here it comes - the U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter, as GDP fell at a 1.4% annualized rate. This comes after an increase of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. Now we have to contend with economic contraction in addition to the soaring inflation.
OBSERVATION - I’m still holding to my concerns that this fall the ‘perfect storm’ scenario may hit - in time for democrats to corrupt the midterms in their favor.
Deutsche Bank continues its warnings as on Tuesday, its team of economists wrote in a report to clients, which was titled “Why the coming recession will be worse than expected,” “We will get a major recession.”
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Invasion of Illegals -
Homeland Security chief Alejandro Mayorkas on Wednesday defended the Biden administration’s handling of the border crisis; he also specified that DHS doled out $72 million to shut down construction of former President Donald Trump’s signature border wall. “We inherited a broken and dismantled system that is already under strain,” Mayorkas said during a hearing before the House Appropriations DHS Subcommittee hearing on Wednesday. “Only Congress can fix it.”
OBSERVATION - Mayorkas causes bile to rise.
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Biden / Harris watch -
Alleged Vice President Kamala Harris is taking a medication indicated only for high-risk COVID-19 sufferers, according to one source. Dr. Marty Makary, a Johns Hopkins professor of medicine, says he’s “surprised to learn” that Harris is taking Paxlovid, “a drug reserved for high-risk patients.”
OBSERVATION - Her ‘treatment’ is raising various flags from being sicker than announced to special treatment.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Mayorkas testified in the House Homeland Security Committee today that “domestic violent extremism” was the greatest terrorist threat facing the American people in the American homeland.
OBSERVATION - Continuing the trend from the 0bama administration, the swamp is intensifying its focus to call any and all political opponents domestic terrorists.
Murders of police officers rose by nearly 60% during 2021, amid a wider rise in violent crime across the US, according to FBI Director Christopher Wray.
‘
OBSERVATION - Continued aftershocks from the 2019 riots and defund the police efforts.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
It is being reported that it will be years before Raytheon Technologies can build new Stinger shoulder-fired missiles due to a dwindling supply of weapons parts, the company’s CEO said Tuesday.
The U.S. has shipped Stingers to Ukraine’s military, which has used them to shoot down Russian aircraft. But there’s only a finite supply as Raytheon has not made Stinger missiles for the U.S. military in nearly two decades.
“We’re going to have to go out and redesign some of the electronics in the missile and the seeker head,” Raytheon Technologies CEO Greg Hayes told investment analysts Tuesday during the company’s quarterly earnings call. “That’s going to take us a little bit of time.”
OBSERVATIONS - Concerns are being raised over the depletion of war stockpiles of this and other munitions, like the Javelin ATGM system.
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Cyber Warfare -
Russian officials are expecting a “major cyber provocation” from the West. “The Kiev regime, the US and the West, including NATO and EU institutions, collectively have started preparations for a major cyber provocation,” according to Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.
OBSERVATION - Russia has increased probing of U.S. networks and cyber targets, possibly in preparation of an attack - a “component of lightning” fast strikes - as announced by putin.
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China -
The USS Sampson transited the Taiwan Straits, drawing China’s ire.
According to Lin Wen-huang, from Taiwan’s joint operations department they are “Taking into account the lessons of the Russia-Ukraine war, the military will continue to forge ahead on improving the use of asymmetric warfare, cognitive warfare, information and electronic warfare operations, and use of reserves and full strength of the nation,” for any future conflict with China.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
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Japan -
Chinese navy ship entered Japan waters near Kagoshima Pref. islands.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 64)
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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In a direct threat to the West Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged “lightning” fast strikes on any nation that “interferes” with Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“If anyone ventures to intervene from the outside and [pose] unacceptable threats of a strategic nature to Russia, they should know that our counter-retaliatory strikes will take place with lightning speed,” he said. Putin added, “We have all the tools for this — such that no one else can boast of right now. And we won’t brag — we’ll use them if needed,” emphasizing that “everyone should know about it. All decisions in this regard have already been made.”
Russian state TV is raging about WWIII and an inevitable escalation over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Citizens are being primed to believe that even the worst outcome is a good thing, because those dying for the Motherland will skyrocket to paradise. Secretary of Russian Security Council Patrushev urged local authorities in southern Russia to prepare bomb shelters
OBSERVATION - Russian media is going hyper about an impending nuclear war with NATO and have sculpted the Ukrainan war from a ‘special operation to an all out war against the west. This has created all kinds of speculation that they are trying to prepare the population for a significant escalation of the Ukraine war in coming weeks. Linked to this is speculation that putin will try to make May 9th “Victory Day” on which the ‘special military operation’ is officially framed as a ‘war’” and Putin demands national mobilization for a longer conflict.
Again, this is serious SPECULATION by various Russian observers/analysts.
I’m not sure how far down the rabbit hole to follow this. Russian media is controlled by the Kremlin / putin so what they are saying reflects what they want said. They did similar in the lead up to the Ukraine invasion. I suspect that this is primarily directed to the west to deter further support to Ukraine, as I suspect that there is still skepticism from the greater Russian population over this propaganda pretending to be news. Hold over from the Soviet era.
Logistics -
- Wrecked Kremlin equipment now amounts to 939 tanks, 185 planes, 155 helicopters, 421 artillery units and eight ships. BTW - I don’t know where they got their ship estimate from. I can only finger four or five ships, two sunk and up to three seriously damaged.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Current estimate if Russia deaths are at approximately 22,400 Russian soldiers. Rough estimate of wounded would be in the range of 66,000-88,000
Economic Impacts -
- Russian users of AliExpress are suddenly unable to pay for their orders via Russian credit/debit cards.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying..
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian forces made minor but steady advances both from Izyum and in continued assaults along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine. These attacks are simple frontal assaults on Ukraine positions, lacking maneuver. They result in high casualties and losses. To support these assaults, Russia has been increasing the concentration of artillery assets to prepare the objectives and provide a degree of covering fire.
There are increasing reports of Russian conducting large-scale “filtration measures” in Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk Oblasts. The “filtration” targets men of military age, former military and law enforcement personnel, and pro-Ukrainian activists for interrogation, torture, and possible execution.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Russian troops shelled Esman community in Sumy region.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Russian forces continued to partially encircle Kharkiv and shell civilian infrastructure across the oblast.
Russian forces in Izyum continued attacks on three lines of advance – southeast towards Slovyansk, southwest towards Barvinkove, and directly west away from Donetsk Oblast. The advances towards Barvinkove, and an attempted an offensive in the area of Nova Dmytrivka, they were stopped and turned back. Russians were successful in capturing Zavody and the outskirts of Velyka Komyshuvakha, 20km west of Izyum.
Russian forces made marginal advances in frontal assaults around Severodonetsk, Rubizhne, and Popasna and continued to shell the entire frontline. The slow progress on these multiple small axes of advance, is likely due to their increasing use of concentrated artillery.
The following line produces a map of the region showing the recent situation on the ground.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRXOwIYXIAAzPhu.jpg
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian forces continued ground and air assaults against Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant concentrating artillery and bombing from Tu-22M3 strategic bombers.
The Mariupol mayor’s office reports that 4 Russian filtration camps are operating in the city. US amb to the OSCE Michael Carpenter said a Mariupol escapee said the camps are “like ghettos” where Russians divides up people linked to govt, military, or media. Further reports say Russian occupation forces are increasingly restricting civilian movement in Mariupol and “resorting to physical coercion and blackmail” to force Ukrainian citizens to work for the occupation regime.
Russian army targeted the LOC in the in the vicinity of Chervone, Pavlivka, Vremivka, Novopil, Mali Shcherbaki, Privilne, Orikhiv, Gulyaypole, Kamyanske, Novodanilivka with tank, GRAD MLRS, howitzers, 120 mm mortars and machine guns
Crimea Front -
Russian forces continued to shell along the entire line of contact and there is evidence that forward positions are being reinforced in preparation for a potential resumption of offensive operations towards Mykolayiv and Kryvyi Rih.
Deputy head of appointed occupation authorities of Kherson region says region will be occupied and will start using Russian ruble
Russian television is down in Kherson after strikes in the city after the television station and tower was targeted by Ukrainian Tochka-U and MLRS according to Russian sources. Local residents in Kherson claim Russian forces are shelling Ukrainian positions from residential areas inside the city
Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant reported.
Russian Territory -
Reports of drone or possibly missile strikes on Russian logistics centers in Belgorod and Voronezh. Reports of air defense missile launch in Belgorod.
OBSERVATION - Ukrainian interdiction operations in Russia territory has these units very jumpy.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term. Russian forces are likely attempting to organize forces to launch larger-scale offensive operations in the coming days to capture the entirety of Kherson Oblast, but successful Ukrainian counterattacks are likely delaying and disrupting Russian operations. Piecemeal attacks by Russian forces continue to result in heavy losses of men and equipment. Current Russian forces deployed are assessed as inadequate to accomplish that mission.
Russian deeper interdiction of Ukraine supply lines seems sporadic at best, giving Ukraine time to repair damage and continue supply distribution.
Some analysts are projecting that Russia may try to kickoff offensive operations to capture the entirety of Kherson Oblast in the coming days. Goal to ‘legitimize’ separatist ‘declaration’ of the Oblast switching to Russian affiliation, like Crimea, and the separatist regions.
Ukrainian forces will likely continue conduct further cross-border strikes to disrupt Russian logistics. This has become a distraction to the Donbas offensive, diverting assets to protect these areas
The Zatoka Bridge, which connects the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi Region near the Ukrainian-Romanian Border and the Odessa Region, is forcing all traffic from Romania to Ukraine to go through Moldova now. This may reflect why the sudden attention being given to Moldova by Russia.
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Moldova/Transnistria -
Events here are developing rapidly.
Some analysts are indicating that all this is possibly a Russian ploy to help unseat an EU-leaning president and justify military operations pushing in that direction. President of Moldova says they have no defenses for the country. Moldova is completely at the mercy of Russia. “For 30 years, the Moldovan army has been left without equipment, without military equipment and combat-ready means. We are now aware of the consequences,” Sandu said.
OBSERVATION - Many have noted that Russia’s ambitions were not limited to Ukraine, but that Moldova was also in its crosshairs. The big question is does Russia have the capability to pull this off?
The recent activity in Moldova may also have a lot to do with cutting off Romania from supporting Ukraine than anything else - See above on Ukraine OUTLOOK.
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Belarus -
The Belorussian defense ministry announced joint drills involving Russian and Belorussian air forces, which started yesterday and will end on 29 April.
OBSERVATION - Outside possibility that Belarus may contribute its air assets to the Ukraine war in place of ground troops. May reflect a Russian attempt to counter NATO/EU contributions to the Ukrainian AF.
In Belarus, the parliament allowed the use of military equipment against citizens and approved the introduction of the death penalty for an attempted terrorist attack (to “provide a deterrent effect on destructive elements, as well as demonstrate the state’s decisive struggle)
Belarus announced that attempted sabotage and acts of terrorism would be punishable by death. This is likely in response to the sabotage of the rail network to confound Russian supply efforts.
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Israel -
PIJ Saraya Al-Quds have revealed in a video their drone called “Jenin” - first used in 2019 to observe and attack the IDF on the Gaza border. Notably two additional drones can be seen in the video, one which is the same as Hamas’ Shehab drone, derived from the Qasef in Yemen/Houthi, which again has origins back to Iran as an Ababil. The second a delta wing, all 3 manufactured locally in Gaza. The delta wing shows resemblance to Houthi and Iran origins being similar to the Rased. The Rased was reportedly the first home grown drone from the Houthi’s.
OBSERVATION - Drones will be the big weapon of the next war. Success of the Turkish made TB-2 in multiple theaters is a case in point and one that other nations are looking at - especially Iran.
Iran’s breakout time to a nuclear weapon is now “just a few weeks or less,” White House Press Secretary Jan Psaki told reporters on Tuesday. She then went on to blame Trump’s policies for the development.
OBSERVATION - What is really important is if Israel shares the same view. On the case of the 2015 agreement, Israel appears to side with Trump for pulling out. Be sure Israel is carefully assessing Iranian enrichment activity. I think that a major red line will be the enrichment to the 90% level which would indicate that they could be ready to test a uranium device. Such a red line would force Israeli action.
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