Replies

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is creating a “Disinformation Governance Board” to control narratives combat whatever they deem ‘misinformation’ before the 2022 midterms and beyond. According to Politico, the new entity will focus on ‘misinformation related to homeland security, focused specifically on irregular migration and Russia.” It will be headed by executive director Nina Jankowicz, a socialist who’s spent her time disseminating false narrative on a number of subjects - like hunter biden’s laptop was a russian plant - a story destroyed by current revelations.
OBSERVATION - ALL HAIL THE Ministry of Truth. The scope of the board is yet to be announced, but there should be no doubt that Jankowicz could use this role to suppress free speech on U.S. social media platforms under the guise of a counter-propaganda effort.

Probably mentioned before but worth repeating. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has pounced on the opportunity by pushing its plan for nations to curb their oil use. IEA calling for energy “lockdowns” and radical measures such as banning the use of private cars in cities on Sundays. Other measures proposed in the agency’s “A 10-Point Plan to Cut Oil Use” include reducing speed limits, working from home, cutting business air travel, and imposing an SUV “tax.”
OBSERVATION - The ease that the wuhan emergency was applied, now global warming cultists are plotting the same thing.

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss called for a “Global NATO,” citing security situations in Europe and in Asia. “We also reject the false choice between Euro-Atlantic security and Indo-Pacific security. In the modern world we need both, a global NATO,” Truss said. She continued, “NATO must have a global outlook, ready to tackle global threats. We need to pre-empt threats in the Indo-Pacific, working with our allies like Japan and Australia to ensure the Pacific is protected.”
OBSERVATION - The GGR will need muscle projected globally.
_____________________________

Economy -

Here it comes - the U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter, as GDP fell at a 1.4% annualized rate. This comes after an increase of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. Now we have to contend with economic contraction in addition to the soaring inflation.
OBSERVATION - I’m still holding to my concerns that this fall the ‘perfect storm’ scenario may hit - in time for democrats to corrupt the midterms in their favor.

Deutsche Bank continues its warnings as on Tuesday, its team of economists wrote in a report to clients, which was titled “Why the coming recession will be worse than expected,” “We will get a major recession.”

______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

Homeland Security chief Alejandro Mayorkas on Wednesday defended the Biden administration’s handling of the border crisis; he also specified that DHS doled out $72 million to shut down construction of former President Donald Trump’s signature border wall. “We inherited a broken and dismantled system that is already under strain,” Mayorkas said during a hearing before the House Appropriations DHS Subcommittee hearing on Wednesday. “Only Congress can fix it.”
OBSERVATION - Mayorkas causes bile to rise.
______________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

Alleged Vice President Kamala Harris is taking a medication indicated only for high-risk COVID-19 sufferers, according to one source. Dr. Marty Makary, a Johns Hopkins professor of medicine, says he’s “surprised to learn” that Harris is taking Paxlovid, “a drug reserved for high-risk patients.”

OBSERVATION - Her ‘treatment’ is raising various flags from being sicker than announced to special treatment.

___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

Mayorkas testified in the House Homeland Security Committee today that “domestic violent extremism” was the greatest terrorist threat facing the American people in the American homeland.

OBSERVATION - Continuing the trend from the 0bama administration, the swamp is intensifying its focus to call any and all political opponents domestic terrorists.

Murders of police officers rose by nearly 60% during 2021, amid a wider rise in violent crime across the US, according to FBI Director Christopher Wray.
‘
OBSERVATION - Continued aftershocks from the 2019 riots and defund the police efforts.
___________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

It is being reported that it will be years before Raytheon Technologies can build new Stinger shoulder-fired missiles due to a dwindling supply of weapons parts, the company’s CEO said Tuesday.
The U.S. has shipped Stingers to Ukraine’s military, which has used them to shoot down Russian aircraft. But there’s only a finite supply as Raytheon has not made Stinger missiles for the U.S. military in nearly two decades.
“We’re going to have to go out and redesign some of the electronics in the missile and the seeker head,” Raytheon Technologies CEO Greg Hayes told investment analysts Tuesday during the company’s quarterly earnings call. “That’s going to take us a little bit of time.”

OBSERVATIONS - Concerns are being raised over the depletion of war stockpiles of this and other munitions, like the Javelin ATGM system.
_________________________________

Cyber Warfare -

Russian officials are expecting a “major cyber provocation” from the West. “The Kiev regime, the US and the West, including NATO and EU institutions, collectively have started preparations for a major cyber provocation,” according to Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.

OBSERVATION - Russia has increased probing of U.S. networks and cyber targets, possibly in preparation of an attack - a “component of lightning” fast strikes - as announced by putin.
_________________________________

China -

The USS Sampson transited the Taiwan Straits, drawing China’s ire.

According to Lin Wen-huang, from Taiwan’s joint operations department they are “Taking into account the lessons of the Russia-Ukraine war, the military will continue to forge ahead on improving the use of asymmetric warfare, cognitive warfare, information and electronic warfare operations, and use of reserves and full strength of the nation,” for any future conflict with China.
____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.
__________________________________

Japan -

Chinese navy ship entered Japan waters near Kagoshima Pref. islands.

____________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 64)

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

In a direct threat to the West Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged “lightning” fast strikes on any nation that “interferes” with Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“If anyone ventures to intervene from the outside and [pose] unacceptable threats of a strategic nature to Russia, they should know that our counter-retaliatory strikes will take place with lightning speed,” he said. Putin added, “We have all the tools for this — such that no one else can boast of right now. And we won’t brag — we’ll use them if needed,” emphasizing that “everyone should know about it. All decisions in this regard have already been made.”

Russian state TV is raging about WWIII and an inevitable escalation over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Citizens are being primed to believe that even the worst outcome is a good thing, because those dying for the Motherland will skyrocket to paradise. Secretary of Russian Security Council Patrushev urged local authorities in southern Russia to prepare bomb shelters

OBSERVATION - Russian media is going hyper about an impending nuclear war with NATO and have sculpted the Ukrainan war from a ‘special operation to an all out war against the west. This has created all kinds of speculation that they are trying to prepare the population for a significant escalation of the Ukraine war in coming weeks. Linked to this is speculation that putin will try to make May 9th “Victory Day” on which the ‘special military operation’ is officially framed as a ‘war’” and Putin demands national mobilization for a longer conflict.

Again, this is serious SPECULATION by various Russian observers/analysts.
I’m not sure how far down the rabbit hole to follow this. Russian media is controlled by the Kremlin / putin so what they are saying reflects what they want said. They did similar in the lead up to the Ukraine invasion. I suspect that this is primarily directed to the west to deter further support to Ukraine, as I suspect that there is still skepticism from the greater Russian population over this propaganda pretending to be news. Hold over from the Soviet era.

Logistics -
- Wrecked Kremlin equipment now amounts to 939 tanks, 185 planes, 155 helicopters, 421 artillery units and eight ships. BTW - I don’t know where they got their ship estimate from. I can only finger four or five ships, two sunk and up to three seriously damaged.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Current estimate if Russia deaths are at approximately 22,400 Russian soldiers. Rough estimate of wounded would be in the range of 66,000-88,000

Economic Impacts -
- Russian users of AliExpress are suddenly unable to pay for their orders via Russian credit/debit cards.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying..

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian forces made minor but steady advances both from Izyum and in continued assaults along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine. These attacks are simple frontal assaults on Ukraine positions, lacking maneuver. They result in high casualties and losses. To support these assaults, Russia has been increasing the concentration of artillery assets to prepare the objectives and provide a degree of covering fire.

There are increasing reports of Russian conducting large-scale “filtration measures” in Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk Oblasts. The “filtration” targets men of military age, former military and law enforcement personnel, and pro-Ukrainian activists for interrogation, torture, and possible execution.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant reported.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Russian troops shelled Esman community in Sumy region.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.

Russian forces continued to partially encircle Kharkiv and shell civilian infrastructure across the oblast.

Russian forces in Izyum continued attacks on three lines of advance – southeast towards Slovyansk, southwest towards Barvinkove, and directly west away from Donetsk Oblast. The advances towards Barvinkove, and an attempted an offensive in the area of Nova Dmytrivka, they were stopped and turned back. Russians were successful in capturing Zavody and the outskirts of Velyka Komyshuvakha, 20km west of Izyum.

Russian forces made marginal advances in frontal assaults around Severodonetsk, Rubizhne, and Popasna and continued to shell the entire frontline. The slow progress on these multiple small axes of advance, is likely due to their increasing use of concentrated artillery.
The following line produces a map of the region showing the recent situation on the ground.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRXOwIYXIAAzPhu.jpg

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

Russian forces continued ground and air assaults against Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant concentrating artillery and bombing from Tu-22M3 strategic bombers.

The Mariupol mayor’s office reports that 4 Russian filtration camps are operating in the city. US amb to the OSCE Michael Carpenter said a Mariupol escapee said the camps are “like ghettos” where Russians divides up people linked to govt, military, or media. Further reports say Russian occupation forces are increasingly restricting civilian movement in Mariupol and “resorting to physical coercion and blackmail” to force Ukrainian citizens to work for the occupation regime.

Russian army targeted the LOC in the in the vicinity of Chervone, Pavlivka, Vremivka, Novopil, Mali Shcherbaki, Privilne, Orikhiv, Gulyaypole, Kamyanske, Novodanilivka with tank, GRAD MLRS, howitzers, 120 mm mortars and machine guns

Crimea Front -
Russian forces continued to shell along the entire line of contact and there is evidence that forward positions are being reinforced in preparation for a potential resumption of offensive operations towards Mykolayiv and Kryvyi Rih.

Deputy head of appointed occupation authorities of Kherson region says region will be occupied and will start using Russian ruble

Russian television is down in Kherson after strikes in the city after the television station and tower was targeted by Ukrainian Tochka-U and MLRS according to Russian sources. Local residents in Kherson claim Russian forces are shelling Ukrainian positions from residential areas inside the city

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant reported.

Russian Territory -
Reports of drone or possibly missile strikes on Russian logistics centers in Belgorod and Voronezh. Reports of air defense missile launch in Belgorod.
OBSERVATION - Ukrainian interdiction operations in Russia territory has these units very jumpy.

OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term. Russian forces are likely attempting to organize forces to launch larger-scale offensive operations in the coming days to capture the entirety of Kherson Oblast, but successful Ukrainian counterattacks are likely delaying and disrupting Russian operations. Piecemeal attacks by Russian forces continue to result in heavy losses of men and equipment. Current Russian forces deployed are assessed as inadequate to accomplish that mission.

Russian deeper interdiction of Ukraine supply lines seems sporadic at best, giving Ukraine time to repair damage and continue supply distribution.

Some analysts are projecting that Russia may try to kickoff offensive operations to capture the entirety of Kherson Oblast in the coming days. Goal to ‘legitimize’ separatist ‘declaration’ of the Oblast switching to Russian affiliation, like Crimea, and the separatist regions.

Ukrainian forces will likely continue conduct further cross-border strikes to disrupt Russian logistics. This has become a distraction to the Donbas offensive, diverting assets to protect these areas

The Zatoka Bridge, which connects the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi Region near the Ukrainian-Romanian Border and the Odessa Region, is forcing all traffic from Romania to Ukraine to go through Moldova now. This may reflect why the sudden attention being given to Moldova by Russia.

___________________________________

Moldova/Transnistria -

Events here are developing rapidly.

Some analysts are indicating that all this is possibly a Russian ploy to help unseat an EU-leaning president and justify military operations pushing in that direction. President of Moldova says they have no defenses for the country. Moldova is completely at the mercy of Russia. “For 30 years, the Moldovan army has been left without equipment, without military equipment and combat-ready means. We are now aware of the consequences,” Sandu said.

OBSERVATION - Many have noted that Russia’s ambitions were not limited to Ukraine, but that Moldova was also in its crosshairs. The big question is does Russia have the capability to pull this off?
The recent activity in Moldova may also have a lot to do with cutting off Romania from supporting Ukraine than anything else - See above on Ukraine OUTLOOK.
___________________________________

Belarus -

The Belorussian defense ministry announced joint drills involving Russian and Belorussian air forces, which started yesterday and will end on 29 April.

OBSERVATION - Outside possibility that Belarus may contribute its air assets to the Ukraine war in place of ground troops. May reflect a Russian attempt to counter NATO/EU contributions to the Ukrainian AF.

In Belarus, the parliament allowed the use of military equipment against citizens and approved the introduction of the death penalty for an attempted terrorist attack (to “provide a deterrent effect on destructive elements, as well as demonstrate the state’s decisive struggle)

Belarus announced that attempted sabotage and acts of terrorism would be punishable by death. This is likely in response to the sabotage of the rail network to confound Russian supply efforts.

______________________________________

Israel -

PIJ Saraya Al-Quds have revealed in a video their drone called “Jenin” - first used in 2019 to observe and attack the IDF on the Gaza border. Notably two additional drones can be seen in the video, one which is the same as Hamas’ Shehab drone, derived from the Qasef in Yemen/Houthi, which again has origins back to Iran as an Ababil. The second a delta wing, all 3 manufactured locally in Gaza. The delta wing shows resemblance to Houthi and Iran origins being similar to the Rased. The Rased was reportedly the first home grown drone from the Houthi’s.

OBSERVATION - Drones will be the big weapon of the next war. Success of the Turkish made TB-2 in multiple theaters is a case in point and one that other nations are looking at - especially Iran.

Iran’s breakout time to a nuclear weapon is now “just a few weeks or less,” White House Press Secretary Jan Psaki told reporters on Tuesday. She then went on to blame Trump’s policies for the development.

OBSERVATION - What is really important is if Israel shares the same view. On the case of the 2015 agreement, Israel appears to side with Trump for pulling out. Be sure Israel is carefully assessing Iranian enrichment activity. I think that a major red line will be the enrichment to the 90% level which would indicate that they could be ready to test a uranium device. Such a red line would force Israeli action.
____________________________________

Another wild week.

Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key

BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.

_____________________________

Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ukraine war has allowed GGR to operate towards the ‘reset’ without much news coverage.

The Biden administration on Thursday unveiled an international “Declaration for the Future of the Internet” with 50 other countries, slamming the policies of “authoritarian” governments — while endorsing efforts to curb online “disinformation” and “harassment.” The document outlines ideas for “reclaiming the promise of the Internet” and US officials described it as an effort to counter the practices of countries including China and Russia.

OBSERVATION - Key words “disinformation” and “harassment” are going to be front and center over the next few months as biden (as well as other GGR syncopaths) seek to control internet speech in a greater manner.
________________________________

Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Doom cries about a new ‘variant’ poking their head up.

Denmark has become the first country to halt its Covid vaccination program, saying it is doing so because the virus is now under control. Far from scrapping its vaccination program altogether, however, the Danish Health and Medicines Authority said there will probably be a need to vaccinate against Covid-19 again in the fall as the virus continues to mutate.

The World Health Organization’s Maria Van Kerkhove said that the next COVID variant could be a cause for concern, as too many variants are currently in circulation. The uncertainty of what the next COVID variant could remain a significant cause of concern for the WHO.
“We need to plan for different kinds of scenarios,” Van Kerkhove said. She also pointed out that Omicron is currently dominant worldwide, adding that the WHO is currently tracking sublineages and sister lineages of the variant – BA.4, BA.5, BA.2.12.1.

OBSERVATION - The solution, according to the rulers, is the “vaccine.” Yet, in the age of the vaccine, people are still getting sick and being hospitalized and dying of the disease they were injected against. Other “health officials” have also stated that the vaccine doesn’t stop transmission or therefore, infection.

_____________________________

Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world.

With the contraction of the GDP this week by 1.4%, economists are peering into their cups trying to discern what the tea leaves are saying. With that comes renewed discussion of stagflation. Others look at it as confirmation of an impending recession. Possibly a combination of the two.

The sharp drops in stocks and bonds is a warning sign that the Federal Reserve could trigger a financial crisis by hiking interest rates aggressively, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood has said. Wood’s comment came on the same day Deutsche Bank predicted a major US recession in a research note. The bank said the Fed would have to increase rates to above 5%, from the current level of 0.25%, to get a grip on inflation.
The Ark Invest CEO also said the recent sharp rise in the dollar was a warning signal, and is becoming a problem for the global economy. The dollar index has risen 7.44% in 2022 to 103.10, as of Wednesday.

Senator Chuck Schumer claims the “only way” to reduce inflation is to raise taxes on Americans. NOTE - a real case for term limits.
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Biden’s policies guarantee uncontrollable flood of illegals starting next month.

A leaked draft of a 2020 internal ICE report states that the “Alternatives to Detention” program, which has cost $1.46 billion since it started in 2004, has “little value.” The program uses ICE-provided ankle monitors and smartphones using the SmartLink program for tracking illegal immigrants released by authorities. An average of 84% of illegal immigrants leave the program, ditch devices, or delete tracking applications to live in the United States illegally. Some 216,000 illegal immigrants are currently enrolled in the program. (FO)

OBSERVATION - One would almost consider this to have been deliberately put together in order to fail.
______________________________

Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.

Joe Biden struggled to speak earlier today as he discussed specific actions the United States is taking to punish those close to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Biden promised to “accommodate” the “oligarchs” before laughing twice.
Biden promised to “Enhance our underlying effort to accommodate the Russian oligarchs and make sure we take their, take their ill begotten gains.” At this point, Biden apparently realized he got a word wrong, and began laughing. We’re going to accommodate them,” said Biden, fighting laughter.
“We’re going to seize their yachts, their luxury homes, and other ill begotten gains of Putin’s kleptocric– yeah, kleptocracy, the guys who are the kleptocracies,” Biden said before laughing again. He then summarized, “But these are bad guys.”

OBSERVATION - It is becoming painful watching biden press conferences/appearances due to the rapid decline in mental ability. It makes me wonder why his handlers are still putting him in front of cameras ?
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - BLM/Antifa maintaining lowered presence outside of base areas (Portland, Seattle etc). There are continued events like first aid and riot training. Rampant crime continues with it migrating into affluent areas.

Building tension in Kenosha WI where some want to put up a memorial for Anthony Huber, one of the men Kyle Rittenhouse killed in self defense. Huber’s girlfriend Hannah Gittings requested on April 5 that a memorial marker be placed in Huber’s memory at a flowering dogwood in Anderson Park, according to public documents attached to the committee’s agenda reviewed by Fox News Digital. Vocal opposition to the plan caused the proposal to be tabled.
_________________________________

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT - YELLOW *updated 01-28-22*

Musk’s take over of Twitter still causing shockwaves in the liberal snowflake world.
__________________________________

POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*

Battles over congressional redistricting maps is ongoing hot and heavy and so far democrat attempts to gerrymander them in order to preserve their House majority have been failing in court challenges bigly.

The day after the Biden Admin announced a new program that essentially amounts to a Ministry of Truth., Congressman Hank Johnson asked DHS Secretary Mayorkas about how he plans to stop misinformation.
“Mr. Secretary, mimicking false claims of ex-president Trump, we continue to see social media posts claiming “if our election systems continue to be rigged and continue to be stolen, then it’s gonna lead to one place and it’s bloodshed.”

OBSERVATION - Not the Bee nailed it. -
“the Congressman (Johnson ) who was worried that Guam would “tip over” & “capsize” because of too many people is worried about “disinformation.”

_____________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
On-going NATO support operations to Ukraine.
_________________________________

China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
DISCUSSION - Shanghai (now 5 weeks in duration) and potentially a Beijing lockdown have created internal strife as well as more global economic supply woes with the shut down of key ports.
____________________________________

North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - North Korea held a highly-expected military parade on Monday. Meanwhile NUKE test watch continues as work at the test site continues.

According to Yonhap, it appears that North Korea is be continuing work to restore the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. The test site was ostensibly demolished in May 25th 2018 ahead of the historic summit with the United States. The site had tests in, 2006, 2009, 2013, 2016/17.

OBSERVATION - Some geologists noted that after the last nuclear test (thermonuclear - H Bomb), the structural integrity of the underground test site was probably compromised. This could result in rock failure from another test - releasing a considerable amount of radioactive material into the air.

Last week, the South Korean Navy conducted dual missile launch tests of its KSS-III submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) system. The new SLBM is based on South Korea’s Hyunmoo-2B, a land-based ballistic missile that has a range of 500 km.
___________________________________

Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - Japan continues to upgrade its military and alliances in the face of Chinese aggression and NK nuclear aspirations.

In a rare update of Japan’s National Security Strategy, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has proposed an increase to the country’s defense budget to 2% of GDP and direct the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to develop a “counter-strike” capability to disable enemy missiles and command and control facilities. The plan is reportedly in response to the changing security environment in the Pacific (FO)
____________________________________

Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - ONGOING -

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has kicked off their offensive to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

*********
A senior U.S. defense official said today that Russian troops are making “slow, uneven and incremental” progress in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas. The Russians are meeting strong resistance from the Ukrainian forces, and there’s lots of “back and forth” in the daily fighting, but no “huge changes,” the official said.
As Russia addresses the logistical problems its forces had in the early days of the war, it’s operating in a relatively cautious manner to avoid overextending its supply lines, the official said. He noted that the Russians “sprinted” toward Kyiv in the first days of the fighting, and then found themselves stuck because they couldn’t be resupplied in a timely manner. (NPR)

Personnel Issues -
- It is being reported that Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov will take personal command of the Russian offensive in the Izyum direction……If confirmed, the appointment of Russia’s senior general officer to command tactical operations indicates both the importance of the Izyum drive to Russia’s war in Ukraine and the breakdown in the Russian military’s normal chain of command.

- Gerasimov apparently will replace Gen Dvornikov who was appointed head of the “special military operation” in Ukraine in mid-April when it became clear that Russia had made numerous strategic mistakes on the ground. Dvornikov is one of Putin’s most loyal men, who has a reputation as a tough guy among tough guys. Some rumors have popped up that he was one of the three generals killed in the recent Ukrainan strike of a CP in Kherson. Speculation is that he was unable to get the job done.

- Update of Russian senior officer losses
- Arrested - 1 Admiral, 21 Generals and 150 FSB officers;
- 10 Generals KIA;
- 20 Colonels KIA;
- 34 Lt Colonels KIA (+2);
- 4 Navy Captains.

Economic Hits -
- Russia is facing its biggest slump in oil production since the finals days of the Soviet Union, as Western sanctions continue to batter the economy. The Kremlin sees output falling as much as 17% this year, according to a document from Russia’s economy ministry seen by Reuters. Russian oil production began to drop in March, and by mid-April was already down by 7.5%, according to Reuters.
____________________________________

Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Ukraine has entered its third month.

WEATHER FORECAST - The 10 day forecast has clearing and drying conditions. This may make off road maneuvering more favorable towards the end of the forecast period. .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

The United States Congress has passed lend-lease legislation that will make it easier to export military equipment to Ukraine, reviving a World War II-era US weapons financing program.
The US House of Representatives overwhelmingly backed the “Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022” on Thursday by a vote of 417 to 10, sending the bill to President Joe Biden for his signature. The bill had sailed through the Senate with unanimous support.

Russia made minor advances over the course of the past week in the general Donbas region. Russia supported these advances with considerable artillery support. These advances also displayed more coordination in the southern Khariv front, developing along parallel and mutually supporting axis. These axises however are strongly road bound and Russia appears to be cautious not to outstrip its logistics tail.

Along other fronts, Russian reinforcements continue to deploy to Belgorod to support the Izyum advance. Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant continue to hold out against heavy Russian artillery and aerial bombardment, including the likely use of multi-ton “bunker-buster” bombs against a Ukrainian field hospital.

Kyiv front -
Three Russian missiles hit Kyiv an infrastructure object, as well as a residential complex near it were damaged. More infrastructure was hit in Kyiv suburbs too. All this during an official visit of UN’s Secretary-General
UN Secretary General told reporters he’s shocked by Russia carrying out a missile attack on Kyiv while he’s on the city for talks with President Zelensky.
Zelenskyy says the bombing of Kyiv while Guterres was present is “aimed at humiliating the United Nations”

OBSERVATION - Russia did not hit Kyiv with missiles during visits of other world leaders. He did hit railways after the US SecState and SecDef departed for Poland from Kyiv.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
NOTE - Combined these two fronts.

Ukraine’s Border Guard Service reported Russian forces fired at border checkpoints in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Russian forces continued to strike Khariv and surrounding with artillery fire.

Ukrainian forces continue to make gains around Kharkiv, who’s troops have entered the outskirts of Rus’ka Lozova and have secured full control of Kutuzivka. If Ukraine takes Kozacha Lopan or Rus’ka Lozova then Ukraine might plan to pressure Belgorod doesn’t seem far fetched. See OUTLOOK for more discussions on the implication of Ukrainan advances in area.

Russian forces in Izyum continued attacks on three lines of advance – southeast towards Slovyansk, southwest towards Barvinkove, and directly west away from Donetsk Oblast Russian troops unsuccessfully attempted to advance at Brazhkivka, Dovhenke in Kharkiv region

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant continue to hold out.

Russian forces conducted several assaults west of Donetsk, attempting to advance on Solodke, Novomykhailivka, and Marinka; and Russian forces attempted to advance north of Mariupol in the area of Neskuchne and Vremivka.

According to US officials, Russia is reportedly moving “significant” numbers of troops out of Mariupol to the north and northwest: senior U.S. defense official. Troops moving to the north will likely be associated with a push to Dnipro while those headed northwest associated with a push on Zaporizhia.

Truckloads of grain were observed being carried off toward Russia from Russian occupied Melitopol. Russia stealing Ukrainian grain.

Crimea Front -
See-saw conflicts in this area overnight. Russian forces advanced west of Kherson moving North-West from Molodets’ke, managing to reach and capture Tavrijs´ke. They were eventually stopped at Nova Zorya. Russian forces recently took Oleksandrivka but have once again withdrawn and there are Ukrainan troops present in the settlement.
Russian troops unsuccessfully attempted to advance Rubizhne of Luhansk region, near Oleksandrivka, Tavriyske, Ivanivka and Zahradivka in Kherson region.
Russian actions appear to want to capture the western border of Kherson Oblast and threaten Mykolaiv .

A railway bridge in Russian-occupied territory used to moved weapons and supplies from Crimea to Melitopol was destroyed yesterday.

Air defense units shot down three Russian missiles over the Odesa district overnight.

Western Ukraine -
No significant actions.

Russian Territory -
At least 2 Large Explosions have reportedly been heard in the Western Russian city of Belgorod, there have been no indications on what has caused them. Russian Air Defenses also now being reported Active over the City, it’s possible the Explosions may have been Missile Interceptions.

OUTLOOK -
Russia will continue to press attacks into the Donbas region. So far they have gained little ground and suffered heavy losses and there is no evidence that they will change their tactics. The change in consolidated Russian leadership now to Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov suggests that there will be another period of trying to reorganization and restructure of the combat units; renewal or update of operation plans and appropriate logistical adjustments/priorities.

Actions in the Crimea front area may well be tied to unrest in Moldova/Transnistria. Russia may try to do something to enable an amphibious operation to seize Odesa from the west. This would require a supporting Russian assault from the east from Kherson. Both very difficult and dangerous at this stage and I question the ability to pull it off.

Ukraine pushes towards the Russian border in the vicinity of Kharkiv may raise potential implications for an actual Ukraine invasion of Russia directed towards Belgorod. As noted above, if Ukraine takes Kozacha Lopan or Rus’ka Lozova the path to Belgorod opens up, located only about 60 km from Ukraine. Ukraine wouldn’t have to do too much, as the threat to this key Russian supply base for its eastern Donbas operation would cause them to have to divert even more resources to protect this critical rear area.
____________________________________

Moldova/Transnistria - ORANGE *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - This category added this week as false flag events hit Russian controlled Transnistria and Russia agitates this small country.

Events here are developing rapidly.

Israel, Bulgaria, Romania, USA, Canada, Germany, and Russia have called on their citizens to leave Moldova and the Transnistria region as soon as possible. Confirmation on the UK and Canada. Both advise you avoid travel to Transnistria, and urge extreme caution if you’re traveling in Moldova.

After the Moldavian Breakaway Region of Transnistria banned all men between the ages of 18-55 from leaving the “Country” earlier today, the Transnistrian Ministry of Defense has reportedly ordered a General Mobilization though the Supreme Council is yet to approve the Order. Transnistrian President Krasnoselsky ordered the Ministry of Internal Affairs to “be ready for any scenario,” but (likely falsely) denied reports that Transnistrian authorities are preventing men of fighting age from leaving the region.
The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Transnistria is preparing to fully staff its military units and increase their readiness.

Former defense minister Vitalie Marinuța said that Moldova has much to fear in the current situation in Ukraine and the threat to Chisinau from “the fifth column,” consisting of the Gagauzia and “also pro-Russian Socialists and Communists”.

The UK sent an intelligence report to Ukraine that Russia is preparing a landing in Transnistria if an escalation begins. Additional forces of the Russian army are being transferred to Crimea, and the Black Sea Fleet is preparing an operation in the Bessarabia region.

OBSERVATION - More unrest developing in this area.
BLUF - What Russia has in mind here is not very clear yet. Obviously they are up to something, but at this point is appears their options are limited.
NOTE on the UK intelligence report. The Transnistra region is completely land locked, so any transfer of Russia forces there have to be either via a contested amphibious operation through Ukrainan territory (already armed to the teeth expecting such an operation), of airborne over Ukraine territory (armed to the teeth with anti air missiles - and some help from western airborne intelligence assets) or via Romania (who’s closed airspace to all Russian aircraft and would view such an incursion an act of war).

Russian forces in Transnistra are only about 2 -3 poorly trained and equipped battalions, totally inadequate to engage Ukraine in a meaningful manner, but sufficient to create a lot of problems with Moldova proper. Due to historic ties to Romania, the breakout of more separatist actions here could draw Romania in and potentially result in a conflict with Russian forces - triggering Article 5.

___________________________________

Belarus - ORANGE *updated 04-22-22*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.

________________________________________

Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland remains in Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.

________________________________________

Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - NATO nations continue to funnel war supplies to Ukraine. Now they are hosting Ukrainan soldiers training on more modern pieces of equipment being delivered to the country.

The European Union says it’s planning a response to Russian energy giant Gazprom after it abruptly halted gas shipments to two EU countries.
Gazprom shut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, ostensibly for refusing to pay for the imports in rubles. Polish and Bulgarian authorities view the stoppage as retaliation for the EU’s support of Ukraine.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the move a failed attempt to blackmail Europe.
The German Chancellor warned that the country must be prepared for Russia to cut off gas supplies, similar to what happened to Poland and Bulgaria.

On Thursday lawmakers in the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house of parliament, voted overwhelmingly to approve sending “heavy weapons and complex machinery” to Ukraine. According to national media it passed with 586 votes in favor, 100 against, and seven abstentions.

Senior officials from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland met on Friday to discuss the NATO security situation in the Baltic region. The group agreed that NATO needs to deploy additional troops to the Baltics.

____________________________________

Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Several terror attacks by West Bank Palestinians has caused tensions to skyrocket over the past week.
Ongoing clashes between Palestinians and ISF at Al Aqsa Mosque Yard were the main topic this past week along with the almost regularly scheduled IAF air strikes on Hezebollah facilities in and around Syria. Hamas appears to have been able to reign in PIJ and other splinter groups to prevent an all out bombing campaign against Gaza.

“In light of the deteriorating security situation in the Transnistria region and in light of the fact that the Foreign Ministry’s ability to provide assistance to Israeli citizens residing there is restricted, Israeli citizens are urged to leave Transnistria as soon as possible.”

____________________________________

Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*
DISCUSSION - Iran still playing the west like a fiddle over the ongoing nuclear arms talks.
_________________________________

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan - YELLOW

Secretary of State Antony Blinken says there is “greater stability and peace” for women in the Taliban-led Afghanistan
OBSERVATION - One has to wonder if this guy is on drugs, making statements like this.
___________________________________

Turkey - YELLOW *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - Turkey kicked off operations in both Northern Syria and N Iraq targeting the Kurdish PKK. Most aggressive ground ops by Turkey against these elements in a while.
______________________________________