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Globalism / Great Reset -
The U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) purchased access to a vast trove of data collected from the phones of millions of Americans, to monitor overall compliance with COVID-19 lockdown orders throughout the country. While the CDC described its initial request for phone data as a means of tracking lockdown compliance, the agency could use this type of data for expanded purposes in the future.
OBSERVATION - This exposes the desire to monitor individuals for control purposes. Use of data like this will only get worse and controlling the next time around.
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Wuhan virus -
Published last week in the Nature journal Scientific Reports, COVID-19 vaccination was “significantly associated” with a 25% jump in emergency medical services (EMS) for heart problems in 16-39 year-olds in Israel, whose vaccination rate is among the world’s highest, according to a peer-reviewed study by MIT researchers.
OBSERVATION - More and more studies coming out documenting the dangers of the jab.
U.S. health officials on Tuesday restated their recommendation that Americans wear masks on planes, trains and buses, despite a court ruling last month that struck down a national mask mandate on public transportation.
NOTE - This is a recommendation , not a mandate. Control, not disease.
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Economy
The Fed’s monetary policy panel is expected to announce a 0.5 percentage point rate hike today, twice the size of a typical interest rate increase, as the bank rushes to get in front of rising prices. Abundant commentary concerning that oncoming trainwreck of a deep recession as a result of the aggressive rate increases.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
leftists called for violence against SCOTUS, its justices, and the nation’s political system. Mainstream liberals have also taken to encouraging insurrections to intimidate the Supreme Court justices. Additional barricades are being set up around the Supreme Court. Capitol Police officers deployed yesterday and were using dump trucks to block off the road in front of the Supreme Court. Security set up at the capitol building as well.
Protests at the Supreme Court were loud but relatively peaceful.
However, it was not so elsewhere.
Ian Millhiser, a senior correspondent at Vox, was one of the first to use incendiary language to describe the leaked ruling. “Seriously, shout out to whoever the hero was within the Supreme Court who said ‘REDACTED it! Let’s burn this place down,’” he tweeted shortly after the leak surfaced.
Other blue checkmarks on Twitter called for the nation, its institutions, and the highest court in the land to literally and figuratively burn to the ground.
Antifa et al has responded to these calls. -
- Antifa in Portland, as elsewhere, are using Twitter to organize rioting in response to the Supreme Court draft opinion on Roe v. Wade.
- Seattle socialist city council member Kshama Sawant has announced an emergency direct action to protest the Supreme Court, smearing it as “right-wing.” Antifa announced they’re coming to support the event.
- Antifa in Salem, Ore. has announced riot plans for Tuesday, May 3 at 6 pm PT at the Riverfront Park.
- The National Lawyers Guild, a far-left legal group that provides help to violent far-left extremists, has put together a Seattle hotline number for those who face legal criminal issues ahead of anticipated rioting.
Results overnight saw initial rioting centered mostly in the Antifa strongholds in the west. Antifa destroyed property & started fires in Portland last night. Seattle tried to reclaim the CHAZ. Antifa rioters also threatened police at the pro-abortion direct action in Los Angeles last night.
Mobilization of Antifa and related leftist forces are continuing. Some accounts encouraged setting fires to churches, which were characterized as meeting places of conservatives, nationalists, and fascists.
Observers of Antifa are noting that popular social media accounts active in the summer two years ago are active now — some of them reactivating after many months of inactivity. Activity involves sharing of best practices on organizing and joining affinity groups, as well as general advice for direct action demonstrations, tactics for overcoming a police presence, providing first aid, practicing digital and physical security, and overall movement strategy.
OBSERVATION - BLUF Unrest is anticipated to increase towards the weekend as various Antifa cells get mobilized for action. Draft protests/riots being planned for over a dozen cities so far, trying to get a list together - but suffice is to say, they are in the places commonly rioted in 2020 - Antifa urban strongholds.
I’ve noted in earlier posts that I’ve seen trend changes towards more violent actions by Antifa, now it appears they have found a national level cause to stir the mob. It is still early to tell how much traction this specific issue will generate, but I think it is pretty clear, the socialist leftists are going to pull out all the stops to prevent a red tsunami this fall. Antifa has not been sleeping, they have been honing their tactics since 2020, training and equipping up core elements. Videos and images on social media show a much more well equipped “bloc” uniforms incorporating body armor among others things - not the adhoc black apparel of a few years ago. Finally, they have trained many on how to shoot. Doesn’t mean they have much proficiency, but they at least know how to point a weapon at a target and they are displaying a greater willingness to incorporate firearms into their protests.
BTW - I’’ working on developing more raw OSINT sources covering Antifa and hopefully they will bear fruit to get a better heads up on their plans and operations.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
Democrat attempts to repeal the filibuster are crashing into the same rock wall as previous actions have.
General observation of Leftist response to the USSC leak (apart from Antifa and rabid leftist responses). Initial protests seemed to be a bit anemic and apart from those at the USSC, have been on the smaller side. Pro-aborts have tried to leverage the emotional side of the argument, but I think things are still tempered by negative economic impacts. Congressional action is tied up because democrats don’t have the votes in the senate to drive any legislation past a filibuster.
Any Antifa rioting is not expected to help the pro-abort cause as much of the country is still tired from the last round. Called for violence has already been tagged as terror to influence the court and condemned broadly - to the chagrin of a minority of very vocal group of celebrities, pundints and politicians.
The leak and pressure attempted to be placed on the USSC by leftists is assessed that it will be unsuccessful in swaying the majority of the court to change their vote. In many ways is is assessed that it will galvanize their decision and may even sway Roberts more to the right as the release is a direct affront to his leadership as Chief Justice.
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China -
China’s aircraft carrier “Liaoning,” as well as seven other vessels, are reportedly performing a naval expedition in close proximity to Nagasaki, Japan, and the U.S. Navy base at Sasebo, according to a Tuesday report from China’s Observer News. The total tonnage for this iteration of the Liaoning’s aircraft carrier group is reportedly the largest formation ever assembled in the history of the People’s Liberation Army Navy, according to an opinion piece from China’s Tencent News translated by the DCNF.
The U.S. Naval Institute fleet tracker placed both the USS Abraham Lincoln, as well as the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier in the waters near Sasebo on May 2.
OBSERVATION - This is an in your face exercise to both US and Japan.
Manufacturing activity in China dropped to its lowest level in two years, signs of economic pain unheard of in a country renowned for year-on-year 5%+ growth numbers. The official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was at 47.4 in April, the 50 point mark separating growth from contraction. Some view this largely due to the draconian lockdowns in key manufacturing regions. Manufacturers are struggling to keep some of their China operations going as extended and widening Covid-19 lockdowns choke off supplies and clog up truck routes and ports, adding more pressure on the stretched global supply chain.
On top of the ongoing lockdowns, Chinese government authorities have locked down another major city in its pursuit of its zero-COVID policies. The northern port city of Qinhuangdao in Hebei province is the latest lockdown victim. The city is a major transshipment point for coal and metal ore imports destined for China’s steel industry.
OBSERVATIONS - Ripples of the disruption are just starting to hit hard. It took months, no thanks to brandon, for the past backlog to even get marginally cleared out. Of course this will come to a head in the next few months, just in time for midterms.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
Japan State Minister of Defense Makoto Oniki told reporters that North Korean conducted a missile launch that flew 500 km, hitting a max height of 800 km. Total flight time was approximately 20 minute. Asked if Japan had assessed the missile was an IRBM or ICBM, he said the ministry was continuing to analyze the test. The missile was launched from Pyongyang area, NK News learned. This suggests it was fired from Sunan Int’l Airport.
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Japan -
See N/S Korea above
See China above.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 70)
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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As preparations continue for May 9th, speculation continues about any pronouncements to be made by putin.
Economic Impacts -
- Russia’s last dollar bond payments cleared international processing the day before the sanctions-stricken country would be declared in default.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The past 24 hours saw some of the most extensive cruse/ballistic missile strikes across the country since the start of the war. Multiple cruise missile strikes reported in multiple Ukrainian cities including Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro and Lviv. Strikes on Lviv damaged two power stations. The head of Ukrainian Railways says the Russian military bombed six train stations in central and western Ukraine today. Damage to the nation’s rail infrastructure is still unknown. For the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a missile strike has hit Transcarpathia, Ukraine (Zakarpattia Oblast). Transcarpathia borders Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary, representing a possible warning to Romania and Hungary.
In the back and forth battles in southeastern Ukraine, there is evidence that Russia made some important gains in the Yarapil region. Russian did very little except shoot artillery elsewhere
Ukraine is exploiting successes east of Khariv potentially threatening Russian supply lines.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Ukrainian attacks eastward out of Kharkiv have developed into a large-scale counteroffensive that has the potential to unhinge Russian positions to the northeast. A US senior defense official reported that Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces about 40 km east on May 2, and social media reports corroborate that report by showing Ukrainian forces liberating the settlement of Staryi Saltiv. Ukrainian recapture of Staryi Saltiv, makes Russian positions west of the Donets river untenable. Russian forces also reportedly retreated in the direction of Volchansk near the Russian state border. Ukrainian forces have also reportedly captured the village of Molodova, Kharkiv Oblast. About 40km from the city of Kharkiv.
Ukrainian success has also given them additional freedom of maneuver to the extent that the offensive could be carried across the border into Russia as well as bringing Russia logistical lines under Ukrainan artillery fire.
Videos of yesterday’s action showed Ukrainian military destroying a Russian supply convoy near Vesele village in Kharkiv region. The before artillery strike video of the Russian convoy showed them parked in an orchard of some kind, parked the tightly bumper to bumper. Post strike aerial review shows that as many as 38 supply vehicles were destroyed or damaged. This is evidence that Russia has failed to apply the lessons they should have learned in the failed northern Ukraine fight.
Russians tried to push from Izyum towards Barvinkove with no success. Restoration of command and control are still chaotic following the rocket/missile strike on a major CP last week. Advances out of Izyum continue to be largely road bound, making maneuver and resupply complicated. Russia has committed a considerable force to the Izyum effort with elements of the Airborne Forces (VDV), 1st Tank Army, 20th, 29th, 35th, and 36th Combined Arms Armies, and 68th Army Corps being present. It is assessed that these units have been substantially attrited and not anywhere near full strength. High likelihood that many units are ad hoc and severely understrength.
Further south, it appears that Russian troops have taken control of Yampil and are at the outskirts of Lyman. Heavy concentration of Russian artillery & thermobaric fire (TOS-1A) targeting Lyman & Yampil in the past 24 hours. Some of the artillery fire has crossed the Siverskyi Donets River in the vicinity of a bridge between Ozerne & Kryva Luka.
The Siverskyi Donets River and its dependent forests are the only major natural features/obstacles in the immediate region. Successful crossings at Yampil or Ozerne would bring Kramatorsk under threat while also enveloping Lysychansik & Severodonetsk.
Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian forces on Tuesday began storming the sprawling steel plant serving as the last holdout for Ukrainian fighters in the besieged port city of Mariupol, Ukrainian officials said.
Russian also allowing only very limited numbers of civilians evacuate the steel plant and adjacent areas.
Russian forces continue to set conditions for the administrative occupation of Mariupol. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that private enterprises in Rostov, Russia, received orders to produce official seals and stamps for public institutions in Mariupol that reportedly contain the inscription: “Russia, the Republic of Donbas, Mariupol, the military-civilian administration.”
Attacks northward towards Dnipro and fingers of Russian advance south of Izyum remain at a stand still.
Crimea Front -
Situation remains relatively static. Limited Russian probing attacks noted in in Zaporizhia Oblast. Most activity consisted Russian shelling of Ukraine positions.
Ukraine forces continued to consolidate positions west of Kherson in preparations to resume assaults to recapture the city. Ukraine claims to have destroyed another Russian command located on the administrative border of the Mykolaiv and Kherson regions. No word on any death of senior staff.
Russian coastal defense complexes fired Oniks anti-ship cruise missiles at land targets as part of yesterday’s missile barrage across Ukraine. The use of the Oniks anti-ship missile in a ground-attack role may suggest that Russian forces are experiencing shortages of the other types of long-range precision-guided munitions.
Russian Navy landing ships still concentrated at Novorossiysk, with surface combatants hugging the area around other Crimean ports. No evidence from this activity of any pending amphibious operation.
Western Ukraine -
Missile and rocket attacks truck logistical and infrastructure targets throughout the region. Kviv lost power in some areas of the town when two substations were hit by missiles/
Russian Territory -
Explosions heard over the Western Russian City of Belgorod tonight setting off car alarms. Observers posting on social media indicated that the sound were like sonic booms but they couldn’t discern if they were from Ukrainan or Russian aircraft.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term. Russian forces continue to be largely stalled along nearly all of the front with no apparent breakout pending. Russian forces have a potential of gaining in the Lyman & Yampil area but face a challenging river crossing that will narrow the Russian advance making them susceptible to Ukraine fire.
Russian missile fire has temporally affected resupply efforts from EU/NATO forces. However, it seems that Russian BDA and retargeting loops are very slow, giving Ukraine time to repair and reposition arms and munitions. If they are to effectively interdict resupply, they are going to have to be able to target and strike faster.
Ukraine will continue to exploit success in their offensive on the eastern side of Khariv. This offensive likely has tied up Russian units needed to pursue the offensive further to the south. The further east Ukraine is able to press, the more exposed Russian logistical lines become. I don’t expect any significant assault into Russian territory until Ukrainian forces have removed Russian forces in Khariv Oblast.
Now 70 days into this Russian dumpster fire and Russia is in no better position than they were at the start. Captured territory is easily half what they initially succeeded in gaining in the first couple weeks of the war.
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Moldova/Transnistria -
Russia is preparing to evacuate the families of Russian officers from Transnistria, according to a report by a report by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
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Belarus -
Ministry of Defense of Belarus announced a “sudden check” of the reaction forces began in the country’s Armed Forces breaking via RIA Novosti. Military units and subunits will have to work out the issues of putting on alert, marching to designated areas and performing combat training tasks,” via Ministry of Defense on Telegram
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Europe / NATO General -
European Council pledges to increase military support for Moldova
US air force has deployed six F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets to Borcea air base in southeastern Romania
Allied Joint Force Command says a NATO Response Force has been activated, and NATO has created a new battle group in Romania.
OBSERVATION - The importance of Romania has increased because of the unrest developing in Moldova/Transnistria.
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Israel -
Israel is putting together defensive military aid for Ukraine after Lavrov’s insulting remarks about Jews. It appears to be largely personnel protective equipment (helmets, body armor etc)
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
The Taliban government of Afghanistan is under attack by disaffected factions under the banner of the Islamic State Khorasan also known as ISKP or ISIS-K. The Taliban’s eight-month rule has devolved into instability and a non-functioning economy. The country currently sits on the brink of a massive famine. This has caused ISIS support to grow as the only viable alternative to the Taliban.
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Wuhan virus -
Secretary of State Antony Blinken has contracted COVID-19 but “is experiencing only mild symptoms,” his team announced following the results of a test Wednesday afternoon. Blinken has been vaccinated and received a booster shot. He tested positive for COVID-19 after White House Correspondents Dinner.
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Economy
Oil rallied as supply concerns took center stage with the EU threatening to ban Russian supplies this year and U.S. regional fuel inventories dropping to record lows. Futures in New York climbed more than 5% to settle at $107.81 on Wednesday, while Brent closed above $110 for the first time since mid-April. The European Union said it plans to ban Russian crude and refined by the end of this year.
Weekly petroleum data from Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories show East Coast distillate inventories are at their lowest ever, dropping to just 22.4 million barrels. Total U.S. distillate inventories have sunk to levels not seen since the last financial crisis.
NOTE - Here in my corner of the American Redoubt Diesel prices jumped 20 cent/gallon overnight, Prices are more than double what I paid less than two years ago.
Natural gas prices in the U.S. continue to rally Wednesday, with futures soaring past $8 for gains of over 5% this morning, as inventory concerns mount ahead of a summer that promises high demand. In the U.S., natural gas prices hit $3.347, for a 5.29% rally as of 9:36 a.m. EST.
In the previous session, U.S. natural gas hit a 14-year high, jumping more than 9%, before pulling back to close at just under $8.
U.S. gas inventories are now an estimated 17% below normal for this time of year as exports hit new records and producers hold back from new production.
OBSERVATION - In some ways fortunate this is happening post winter. In some ways very bad as summer heats up and demand from gas fired electrical plants ramp up. Not too much a problem here in the Redoubt, but as a precaution I’ve double my stockpile of firewood already in anticipation of increased prices resulting from potential wood cutting closures due to fire concerns and increasing gasoline costs.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point. Along with the move higher in rates, the central bank indicated it will begin reducing asset holdings on its $9 trillion balance sheet. The Fed had been buying bonds to keep interest rates low and money flowing through the economy, but the surge in prices has necessitated a dramatic rethink in monetary policy.
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Invasion of Illegals -
Preliminary data obtained by The Washington Post’s Nick Miroff shows that U.S. Customs and Border Protection made approximately 234,000 arrests of illegal border-crossers in April. That’s up nearly 13,000 from the 221,303 southwest border apprehensions recorded in March, marking back-to-back record-breaking months. Prior to March, the last time southwest border arrests surpassed 220,000 was March of 2000.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Left-wing activist groups are planning to send protesters to the homes of conservative Supreme Court justices following a leak indicating the court may soon overturn Roe v. Wade.
The activists are organizing under the moniker “Ruth Sent Us” and have published the supposed home addresses of Justices Amy Coney Barrett, John Roberts, Samuel Alito, Brett Kavanaugh, Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch.
“Our 6-3 extremist Supreme Court routinely issues rulings that hurt women, racial minorities, LGBTQ+ and immigrant rights,” the group’s website reads. “We must rise up to force accountability using a diversity of tactics.”
Workers erected a large fence around the U.S. Supreme Court building late Wednesday night, two days after Politico published a leaked draft opinion striking down the abortion precedent Roe v. Wade (1973).
Harvard Law Professor Emeritus Alan Dershowitz says he fears that the very people who call the January 6, 2021 assault on the U.S. Capitol an ‘insurrection” will now call for “a comparable reaction to the Supreme Court,” as a result of the leak of a draft majority opinion signaling the issue of abortion will be turned over to the states.
USSC OBSERVATIONS - A great deal of growl from the left and great efforts to inflame public passions have generated some near term threats of violence. However i think that a lot of this will be dampened as inflation and shortages (along with other economic issues) continue to press home. Pro-life advocates correctly point out that reversing Roe will not outlaw abortion but refer the actions back to the states.
Antifa will have a lot of action in this near term, but they are missing a major element present in 2020 - BLM. The BLM riots feed upon a group already prone to mass violence and expanded the ‘peaceful’ day protests into night time riots. I don’t see the scope of that Proabort/Antifa relationship developing in the same manner.
There is a greater risk of more focused violence against USSC Justices - see home protests above. Finally, even rabid leftists are getting a wake up as the counter narrative of having their own “Jan 6” event comes around to confront them.
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas tried again Wednesday to clarify the purpose of the newly created Disinformation Governance Board while testifying before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.
‘’What this working group seeks to do is actually develop guidelines, standards, guardrails to ensure that the work that has been ongoing for nearly 10 years does not infringe on people’s free speech rights, rights of privacy, civil rights and civil liberties,’’ The Hill reported that Mayorkas told lawmakers in the hearing.
Calling the board, directed by author and researcher Nina Jankowicz, an ‘’internal working group,’’ the agency said that it plans to be transparent and issue quarterly reports to Congress and the related oversight committees.
In a televised interview with CNN on Sunday, Mayorkas said the board has ‘’no operational authority or capability’’ and would not be used to collect information from U.S. citizens or attempt to censor them.
OBSERVATION - Mayorkas, DHS and biden caught with their pants down on this ‘disinformation’ board. They cant provide a cohesive mission statement and scope of operations under questioning. And even the leftist media is seeing that.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments
RUMINT that Maryland ANG A-10Cs currently At Gander, Canada are being deploying To Latvia Via Spangdahlem Air Base.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
Washington and Seoul will kick off two weeks of joint air force drills next Monday, informed sources told NK News.
North Korea typically criticizes these exercises as provocations and the “root cause” of tensions on the peninsula.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 71)
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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According to NYT, the US has provided intelligence that has helped Ukrainians target and kill many of the Russian generals who have died in action in the Ukraine war. “The United States provides battlefield intelligence to help the Ukrainians defend their country,” NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson told AFP. “We do not provide intelligence with the intent to kill Russian generals.”
OBSERVATION - Expressed claims either covertly to NYT or openly are damaging to the intelligence support efforts overall. It alerts the Russias to methods of collection and gives them a chance to close those methods off to US exploitation. Very stupid move by who ever passed the word to the NYT.
Russia has dismissed speculation that it will declare all-out war in Ukraine in the coming days as “nonsense”. Moscow has up until now denied it is at war, instead referring to the invasion as a “special military operation”.
But Western officials have speculated that President Vladimir Putin could use the 9 May Victory Parade to announce an escalation of military action. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, however, said there was no truth to the rumours “at all”.
Logistics -
- Just days after touting the first tactical deployment of its new T90 tank, one was destroyed by Ukrainan forces.
Russian Personnel Issues -
As at 5 May update of Russian senior officer losses
- 1 Admiral, 21 Generals and 150 FSB officers arrested;
- 11 Generals KIA;
- 20 Colonels KIA;
- 38 Lt Colonels KIA (+1); &
- 6 Navy Captains
Economic Impacts -
- In March, which was the first full calendar month after Russia invaded Ukraine, U.S. imports of Russian goods increased, according to newly released data from the Census Bureau.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian Missiles Strikes occurred across all of Ukraine for the second day in a row. This points to a shift in Russian military strategy in that mass targeting of infrastructure - including rail and energy - is something that hasn’t been seen since February. A senior US defense official reported that Russian aircraft conducted 200 to 300 airstrikes largely targeting transportation infrastructure in the last 24 hours So far, the new campaign of infrastructure targeting has been unable to interdict Western aid shipments to Ukraine.
Russia attempting to hit critical infrastructure in western Ukraine to try to disrupt efforts by Ukrainians to replenish and reinforce, says Pentagon Pres Sec. “They are not good at precision strikes.
“If the US and NATO are really interested in resolving the Ukraine crisis, then first of all, they should wake up and stop supplying the Kyiv regime with arms and ammunition,” Sergey Lavrov had said. On Wednesday Russia’s Defense Minister has repeated the warning that the military will now actively target for destruction any inbound weapons shipments identified in Ukraine:
“The United States and its NATO allies continue to pump weapons into Ukraine. I can confirm that any transport from the North Atlantic alliance that arrives in the country with weapons or materiel for the Ukrainian armed forces will be considered by us as a legitimate target for destruction,” Shoigu said according to state sources.
After seeing a degree of minor success on the ground in eastern Ukraine, Russian advances are struggling once again.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Ukrainan forces continue to press their offensive to the west of Khariv while Russian continues air and artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv City and surrounding settlements
In the southern sector of this front, Ukraine’s resistance against Russian troops in the northern area of the Donbas has “stalled” the advance. This sector runs southeast from Izyum towards Rubizhnes and Popasna. See map created by ISW for details below.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FR7jT1VWUAEM6PZ?format=jpg&name=large
Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Violent assault and shelling continues at Azovstal. Yesterday, Russian troops actually tried to enter the facility and were driven back. Videos from Russia show massive explosions from bombs striking the facility.
Russia’s assessed to have had 12 battalion tactical groups near Mariupol, the majority of which have left the city and are mostly being refitted as they move toward Donbas according to senior U.S. defense official. Unknown how many elements are remaining to effectively keep the Ukraine forces in Azovstal contained. A US estimate places the stay behind force at about 2 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) ”cobbled together” from various damaged units and unspecified Chechen units, amounting to about 2,000 personnel.
Crimea Front -
Intense fighting overnight was reported in the outskirts of Kherson.
“Due to the successful actions of Ukrainian defenders, the enemy lost control over several settlements on the border of Mykolayiv and Kherson regions.”
–General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This claim is still pending verification, but Ukraine has been waging an offensive campaign pressing in on Kherson.
Russian forces are still attempting to press towards the Zaporizhia and Kryvyi Rih areas where it can gain access to road networks running to the northeast towards the Khariv area.
Western Ukraine -
Continued missile strikes against rail roads and electrical facilities.
Russian Territory -
Governor of Belgorod region reports shelling in Nekhoteevka and Zhuravlevka villages near the border of Ukraine
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term.
The Russian missile onslaught appears to be tapering off. The effectiveness of the strikes has been generally assessed as minimal. Russia’s failure to establish air superiority over over the Ukraine is forcing them to launch missiles - from Russian territory or the Black Sea - to avoid having their aircraft targeted by surface to air assets as well as Ukraine fighter jets has forced Russian to use slower intelligence assets to collect data for BDA and follow on strikes. By the time they launch a follow up strike, the target is no longer valid.
The effort to capture the Donbas shows no indicators of having a break out any time soon. Besides aggressive and flexible Ukraine defenses, most of the Russian advances are now encountering a significant river crossing and more restrictive terrain. Russian advances are continue to suffer significant losses. One of the more notable was the first combat loss of their new T90 tank series, just days after being presented to the public.
Westward attacks / amphibious operations toward Odesa are still unlikely in the near and long term. Ukraine’s counter offensive towards Kherson has given it substantial defendable terrain to stop any westward push in that region. Russia faces an increasingly hardened Ukraine anti-ship defensive network and ground defenses that will require a larger force structure than currently exists in the Black Sea.
Some analysts see the recent military drill in Belarus and activities in Transnistria as attempts to freeze Ukraine forces in place and prevent them from being deployed to the Donbas defense. It is unlikely that either will used their military in the near term to invade into Ukraine.
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Moldova/Transnistria -
Nothing significant to report
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Belarus -
In an interview with The Associated Press on Thursday, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko said he hadn’t expected the Russian offensive to “drag on this way.” “But I am not immersed in this problem enough to say whether it goes according to plan, like the Russians say, or like I feel it,” the authoritarian leader said. He added it would be “unacceptable” to use nuclear weapons, but he couldn’t say if Russia has such plans.
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Europe / NATO General -
The head of the European Union proposed eliminating Russian oil imports by the end of the year as part of a new round of sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen made the proposal in a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday.
Sweden confirms that it has U.S. security assurances if it applies for NATO membership
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Israel -
Minister of Jerusalem Affairs: Turning Al-Aqsa Mosque into a military barracks and attacking worshipers undermined the status quo
Fresh clashes broke out Thursday between Palestinians and Israeli police at the Temple Mount after the flashpoint Jerusalem holy site was reopened to Jewish visitors amid threats by the Gaza-ruling Hamas.
Hamas has issued a statement warning that the Israeli authority’s approval of Jews visiting the grounds of Al-Aqsa Mosque beginning Thursday will drag the region into an escalation. As it did during Ramdan, Hamas calls on people to mobilize in defense of its “identity”
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Turkey -
Consumer prices in Turkey soared nearly 70% in April from a year ago, hitting a two-decade high, official figures show.
OBSERVATION - While impacting Turkey, the same inflationary pressures are pushing globally - including the US.
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Colombia -
Colombia’s Interior Ministry said it would prioritize security measures in historically violent regions to prevent the possible interference of illegal armed groups.
According to Interior Minister Daniel Palacios, the government prioritized 99 of 1,300 municipalities for “electoral risk” posed by illegal armed groups.
The municipalities in historically violent regions were prioritized because ” they have some kind of risk caused by illegal armed groups.”
OBSERVATION - Kinda buried by so much other activity, leftists are fighting and in many cases, winning political control of Central and South America.
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