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Wuhan virus -
Secretary of State Antony Blinken has contracted COVID-19 but “is experiencing only mild symptoms,” his team announced following the results of a test Wednesday afternoon. Blinken has been vaccinated and received a booster shot. He tested positive for COVID-19 after White House Correspondents Dinner.
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Economy
Oil rallied as supply concerns took center stage with the EU threatening to ban Russian supplies this year and U.S. regional fuel inventories dropping to record lows. Futures in New York climbed more than 5% to settle at $107.81 on Wednesday, while Brent closed above $110 for the first time since mid-April. The European Union said it plans to ban Russian crude and refined by the end of this year.
Weekly petroleum data from Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories show East Coast distillate inventories are at their lowest ever, dropping to just 22.4 million barrels. Total U.S. distillate inventories have sunk to levels not seen since the last financial crisis.
NOTE - Here in my corner of the American Redoubt Diesel prices jumped 20 cent/gallon overnight, Prices are more than double what I paid less than two years ago.
Natural gas prices in the U.S. continue to rally Wednesday, with futures soaring past $8 for gains of over 5% this morning, as inventory concerns mount ahead of a summer that promises high demand. In the U.S., natural gas prices hit $3.347, for a 5.29% rally as of 9:36 a.m. EST.
In the previous session, U.S. natural gas hit a 14-year high, jumping more than 9%, before pulling back to close at just under $8.
U.S. gas inventories are now an estimated 17% below normal for this time of year as exports hit new records and producers hold back from new production.
OBSERVATION - In some ways fortunate this is happening post winter. In some ways very bad as summer heats up and demand from gas fired electrical plants ramp up. Not too much a problem here in the Redoubt, but as a precaution I’ve double my stockpile of firewood already in anticipation of increased prices resulting from potential wood cutting closures due to fire concerns and increasing gasoline costs.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point. Along with the move higher in rates, the central bank indicated it will begin reducing asset holdings on its $9 trillion balance sheet. The Fed had been buying bonds to keep interest rates low and money flowing through the economy, but the surge in prices has necessitated a dramatic rethink in monetary policy.
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Invasion of Illegals -
Preliminary data obtained by The Washington Post’s Nick Miroff shows that U.S. Customs and Border Protection made approximately 234,000 arrests of illegal border-crossers in April. That’s up nearly 13,000 from the 221,303 southwest border apprehensions recorded in March, marking back-to-back record-breaking months. Prior to March, the last time southwest border arrests surpassed 220,000 was March of 2000.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Left-wing activist groups are planning to send protesters to the homes of conservative Supreme Court justices following a leak indicating the court may soon overturn Roe v. Wade.
The activists are organizing under the moniker “Ruth Sent Us” and have published the supposed home addresses of Justices Amy Coney Barrett, John Roberts, Samuel Alito, Brett Kavanaugh, Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch.
“Our 6-3 extremist Supreme Court routinely issues rulings that hurt women, racial minorities, LGBTQ+ and immigrant rights,” the group’s website reads. “We must rise up to force accountability using a diversity of tactics.”
Workers erected a large fence around the U.S. Supreme Court building late Wednesday night, two days after Politico published a leaked draft opinion striking down the abortion precedent Roe v. Wade (1973).
Harvard Law Professor Emeritus Alan Dershowitz says he fears that the very people who call the January 6, 2021 assault on the U.S. Capitol an ‘insurrection” will now call for “a comparable reaction to the Supreme Court,” as a result of the leak of a draft majority opinion signaling the issue of abortion will be turned over to the states.
USSC OBSERVATIONS - A great deal of growl from the left and great efforts to inflame public passions have generated some near term threats of violence. However i think that a lot of this will be dampened as inflation and shortages (along with other economic issues) continue to press home. Pro-life advocates correctly point out that reversing Roe will not outlaw abortion but refer the actions back to the states.
Antifa will have a lot of action in this near term, but they are missing a major element present in 2020 - BLM. The BLM riots feed upon a group already prone to mass violence and expanded the ‘peaceful’ day protests into night time riots. I don’t see the scope of that Proabort/Antifa relationship developing in the same manner.
There is a greater risk of more focused violence against USSC Justices - see home protests above. Finally, even rabid leftists are getting a wake up as the counter narrative of having their own “Jan 6” event comes around to confront them.
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas tried again Wednesday to clarify the purpose of the newly created Disinformation Governance Board while testifying before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.
‘’What this working group seeks to do is actually develop guidelines, standards, guardrails to ensure that the work that has been ongoing for nearly 10 years does not infringe on people’s free speech rights, rights of privacy, civil rights and civil liberties,’’ The Hill reported that Mayorkas told lawmakers in the hearing.
Calling the board, directed by author and researcher Nina Jankowicz, an ‘’internal working group,’’ the agency said that it plans to be transparent and issue quarterly reports to Congress and the related oversight committees.
In a televised interview with CNN on Sunday, Mayorkas said the board has ‘’no operational authority or capability’’ and would not be used to collect information from U.S. citizens or attempt to censor them.
OBSERVATION - Mayorkas, DHS and biden caught with their pants down on this ‘disinformation’ board. They cant provide a cohesive mission statement and scope of operations under questioning. And even the leftist media is seeing that.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments
RUMINT that Maryland ANG A-10Cs currently At Gander, Canada are being deploying To Latvia Via Spangdahlem Air Base.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
Washington and Seoul will kick off two weeks of joint air force drills next Monday, informed sources told NK News.
North Korea typically criticizes these exercises as provocations and the “root cause” of tensions on the peninsula.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 71)
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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According to NYT, the US has provided intelligence that has helped Ukrainians target and kill many of the Russian generals who have died in action in the Ukraine war. “The United States provides battlefield intelligence to help the Ukrainians defend their country,” NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson told AFP. “We do not provide intelligence with the intent to kill Russian generals.”
OBSERVATION - Expressed claims either covertly to NYT or openly are damaging to the intelligence support efforts overall. It alerts the Russias to methods of collection and gives them a chance to close those methods off to US exploitation. Very stupid move by who ever passed the word to the NYT.
Russia has dismissed speculation that it will declare all-out war in Ukraine in the coming days as “nonsense”. Moscow has up until now denied it is at war, instead referring to the invasion as a “special military operation”.
But Western officials have speculated that President Vladimir Putin could use the 9 May Victory Parade to announce an escalation of military action. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, however, said there was no truth to the rumours “at all”.
Logistics -
- Just days after touting the first tactical deployment of its new T90 tank, one was destroyed by Ukrainan forces.
Russian Personnel Issues -
As at 5 May update of Russian senior officer losses
- 1 Admiral, 21 Generals and 150 FSB officers arrested;
- 11 Generals KIA;
- 20 Colonels KIA;
- 38 Lt Colonels KIA (+1); &
- 6 Navy Captains
Economic Impacts -
- In March, which was the first full calendar month after Russia invaded Ukraine, U.S. imports of Russian goods increased, according to newly released data from the Census Bureau.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian Missiles Strikes occurred across all of Ukraine for the second day in a row. This points to a shift in Russian military strategy in that mass targeting of infrastructure - including rail and energy - is something that hasn’t been seen since February. A senior US defense official reported that Russian aircraft conducted 200 to 300 airstrikes largely targeting transportation infrastructure in the last 24 hours So far, the new campaign of infrastructure targeting has been unable to interdict Western aid shipments to Ukraine.
Russia attempting to hit critical infrastructure in western Ukraine to try to disrupt efforts by Ukrainians to replenish and reinforce, says Pentagon Pres Sec. “They are not good at precision strikes.
“If the US and NATO are really interested in resolving the Ukraine crisis, then first of all, they should wake up and stop supplying the Kyiv regime with arms and ammunition,” Sergey Lavrov had said. On Wednesday Russia’s Defense Minister has repeated the warning that the military will now actively target for destruction any inbound weapons shipments identified in Ukraine:
“The United States and its NATO allies continue to pump weapons into Ukraine. I can confirm that any transport from the North Atlantic alliance that arrives in the country with weapons or materiel for the Ukrainian armed forces will be considered by us as a legitimate target for destruction,” Shoigu said according to state sources.
After seeing a degree of minor success on the ground in eastern Ukraine, Russian advances are struggling once again.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Ukrainan forces continue to press their offensive to the west of Khariv while Russian continues air and artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv City and surrounding settlements
In the southern sector of this front, Ukraine’s resistance against Russian troops in the northern area of the Donbas has “stalled” the advance. This sector runs southeast from Izyum towards Rubizhnes and Popasna. See map created by ISW for details below.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FR7jT1VWUAEM6PZ?format=jpg&name=large
Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Violent assault and shelling continues at Azovstal. Yesterday, Russian troops actually tried to enter the facility and were driven back. Videos from Russia show massive explosions from bombs striking the facility.
Russia’s assessed to have had 12 battalion tactical groups near Mariupol, the majority of which have left the city and are mostly being refitted as they move toward Donbas according to senior U.S. defense official. Unknown how many elements are remaining to effectively keep the Ukraine forces in Azovstal contained. A US estimate places the stay behind force at about 2 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) ”cobbled together” from various damaged units and unspecified Chechen units, amounting to about 2,000 personnel.
Crimea Front -
Intense fighting overnight was reported in the outskirts of Kherson.
“Due to the successful actions of Ukrainian defenders, the enemy lost control over several settlements on the border of Mykolayiv and Kherson regions.”
–General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This claim is still pending verification, but Ukraine has been waging an offensive campaign pressing in on Kherson.
Russian forces are still attempting to press towards the Zaporizhia and Kryvyi Rih areas where it can gain access to road networks running to the northeast towards the Khariv area.
Western Ukraine -
Continued missile strikes against rail roads and electrical facilities.
Russian Territory -
Governor of Belgorod region reports shelling in Nekhoteevka and Zhuravlevka villages near the border of Ukraine
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term.
The Russian missile onslaught appears to be tapering off. The effectiveness of the strikes has been generally assessed as minimal. Russia’s failure to establish air superiority over over the Ukraine is forcing them to launch missiles - from Russian territory or the Black Sea - to avoid having their aircraft targeted by surface to air assets as well as Ukraine fighter jets has forced Russian to use slower intelligence assets to collect data for BDA and follow on strikes. By the time they launch a follow up strike, the target is no longer valid.
The effort to capture the Donbas shows no indicators of having a break out any time soon. Besides aggressive and flexible Ukraine defenses, most of the Russian advances are now encountering a significant river crossing and more restrictive terrain. Russian advances are continue to suffer significant losses. One of the more notable was the first combat loss of their new T90 tank series, just days after being presented to the public.
Westward attacks / amphibious operations toward Odesa are still unlikely in the near and long term. Ukraine’s counter offensive towards Kherson has given it substantial defendable terrain to stop any westward push in that region. Russia faces an increasingly hardened Ukraine anti-ship defensive network and ground defenses that will require a larger force structure than currently exists in the Black Sea.
Some analysts see the recent military drill in Belarus and activities in Transnistria as attempts to freeze Ukraine forces in place and prevent them from being deployed to the Donbas defense. It is unlikely that either will used their military in the near term to invade into Ukraine.
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Moldova/Transnistria -
Nothing significant to report
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Belarus -
In an interview with The Associated Press on Thursday, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko said he hadn’t expected the Russian offensive to “drag on this way.” “But I am not immersed in this problem enough to say whether it goes according to plan, like the Russians say, or like I feel it,” the authoritarian leader said. He added it would be “unacceptable” to use nuclear weapons, but he couldn’t say if Russia has such plans.
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Europe / NATO General -
The head of the European Union proposed eliminating Russian oil imports by the end of the year as part of a new round of sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen made the proposal in a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday.
Sweden confirms that it has U.S. security assurances if it applies for NATO membership
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Israel -
Minister of Jerusalem Affairs: Turning Al-Aqsa Mosque into a military barracks and attacking worshipers undermined the status quo
Fresh clashes broke out Thursday between Palestinians and Israeli police at the Temple Mount after the flashpoint Jerusalem holy site was reopened to Jewish visitors amid threats by the Gaza-ruling Hamas.
Hamas has issued a statement warning that the Israeli authority’s approval of Jews visiting the grounds of Al-Aqsa Mosque beginning Thursday will drag the region into an escalation. As it did during Ramdan, Hamas calls on people to mobilize in defense of its “identity”
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Turkey -
Consumer prices in Turkey soared nearly 70% in April from a year ago, hitting a two-decade high, official figures show.
OBSERVATION - While impacting Turkey, the same inflationary pressures are pushing globally - including the US.
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Colombia -
Colombia’s Interior Ministry said it would prioritize security measures in historically violent regions to prevent the possible interference of illegal armed groups.
According to Interior Minister Daniel Palacios, the government prioritized 99 of 1,300 municipalities for “electoral risk” posed by illegal armed groups.
The municipalities in historically violent regions were prioritized because ” they have some kind of risk caused by illegal armed groups.”
OBSERVATION - Kinda buried by so much other activity, leftists are fighting and in many cases, winning political control of Central and South America.
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Just when you think things cannot get any hotter . . . . .
It has been taking me about an hour extra time to go through my news sources to put these reports together.
Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key
BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.
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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ukraine war has allowed GGR to operate towards the ‘reset’ without much news coverage.
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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Doom cries about a new ‘variant’ poking their head up.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced on Thursday that it would limit who can receive the Johnson & Johnson/Janssen Covid-19 shot due to the serious risk of blood clots.
The FDA announced that it would limit the authorized use of J&J Covid-19 shot to individuals 18 years of age and older for whom other authorized or approved COVID-19 vaccines are not accessible or clinically appropriate, and to individuals 18 years of age and older who elect to receive the Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine because they would otherwise not receive a COVID-19 vaccine.
OBSERVATION - Now when will similar be issued for Pfizer and Moderna mRNA jabs?
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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world.
Markets were hammered yesterday, some analysts think due to delayed reaction from the fed raising its rates by 0.5% -
NASDAQ, largest one day percentage plunge since June 11th, 2020.
DOW, largest one day percentage plunge since October 28th, 2020.
RUSSELL 2000, largest one day percentage plunge since June 11th, 2020.
Worker productivity fell to start 2022 at its fastest pace in nearly 75 years while labor costs soared as the U.S. struggled with surging Covid cases, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. At the same time, unit labor costs soared 11.6%, bringing the increase over the past four quarters to 7.2%, the biggest gain since the third quarter of 1982.
The Biden administration plans to seek bids this fall to buy 60 million barrels of crude oil as the first step in a years-long process aimed at replenishing America’s emergency oil reserve, an Energy Department official told CNN.
This would mark the first time since the early 2000s that the Energy Department has acquired large quantities of oil for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the largest emergency supply of oil on the planet.
OBSERVATION - The oil releases have done absolutely nothing to lower prices. Biden is still on track to continue releases throughout the summer.
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Biden’s policies guarantee uncontrollable flood of illegals starting next month.
Seventy-four percent of Americans say the Biden administration is not equipped to handle the expected surge in illegal border crossings should it end Title 42, a pandemic-era border restriction put in place by the Trump administration early in the coronavirus pandemic that allows U.S. border officials to turn away migrants who have reached the U.S., according to a CNN poll released Wednesday.
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Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.
Reports of tensions between Kamala Harris and Joe Biden have abounded over the past year. Most recently, “Privately, Harris has advocated for additional loan forgiveness. One White House source said her office seemed initially eager to participate in the administration’s public dialogue around student loans,” the report says. “But conscious of progressives pushing Biden to unilaterally cancel tens of thousands of dollars in student debt and that Biden is resisting such lobbying, the vice president has been increasingly wary of becoming part of the public face of the administration’s response.”
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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - Leaked USSC draft decision has caused this to heat up. Pushing to borderline RED Antifa trying to piggy back proabort protests for general violence. Monitoring to see if this gains traction.
Antifa have announced plans for a violent direct action at Pan Pacific Park in Los Angeles on May 6 at 7 pm in support of abortion. They’ve created digital flyers & instructions on how to avoid being identified.
Chicago Antifa have announced a direct action in Federal Plaza for Saturday, May 7 at 12 p.m. They explicitly warn against “peace police,” e.g. people who try to stop them from being violent.
Antifa account @rechelon has compiled a list of addresses of centers to target in the Portland-area. The purpose is to facilitate attacking and putting out hits on pregnancy centers in Portland, OR.
OBSERVATION - The success or failure to get significant Antifa turnout for these events will serve a one gauge of how much traction the proabort protests is giving towards the start of pre midterm rioting.
Pro-abortion activists are targeting Catholic churches for protests on Mother’s Day, with some citing the Roman Catholic faith of multiple justices who reportedly at one point supported the leaked draft opinion striking down Roe v. Wade. The organization Rise Up 4 Abortion Rights has organized a “week of action” beginning on May 8, Mother’s Day, with “Actions Outside of Churches.” One can expect Antifa to try to piggyback on these as well.
Virginia Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares sent a letter signed by 20 GOP attorneys general on Thursday to Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas threatening legal action against its ‘un-American’ Disinformation Governance Board. The letter claims that the new board violates the constitutional freedoms that attorneys general are called to defend.
On Wednesday, Joe Biden falsely characterized MAGA Republicans as the “most extremist” political group in U.S. history. Later that day, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki confirmed that Biden meant what he said.
The name-calling started on Wednesday morning, when Joe Biden sent up a test balloon for a new way to attack conservatives, Republicans and Trump supporters by calling them “ultra MAGAs.” Later, during her White House press conference, Biden spokeswoman Jen Psaki essentially noted that Biden meant what he said. “But he is still going to call out where he sees extremist actions and extremist rhetoric,” Psaki exclaimed.
OBSERVATION -Some pundits have likened this to hillary’s “deplorable” moment.
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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*
A lot of parallel political actions in response to the USSC leak and upcoming midterms.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
On-going NATO support operations to Ukraine.
Russian continues to threaten NATO resupply efforts.
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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
DISCUSSION - Expanding lock downs threaten to tank what limited economic recovery China has had post wuhan and the rest of the globe are facing new supply shortages.
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North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - North Korea held a highly-expected military parade on Monday. Meanwhile NUKE test watch continues as work at the test site continues.
Following this week’s SRBM test, all eyes continue to watch NK’s underground nuclear test facility for a potential test of a ‘tactical’ nuclear device some time this month.
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Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - Japan continues to upgrade its military and alliances in the face of Chinese aggression and NK nuclear aspirations.
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Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - ONGOING -
WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has kicked off their offensive to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Russian continues its prep for the annual May 9th parade and activities. Mixed signals on if putin is going to declare war against Ukraine.
RUMINT -
See discussion regarding the “Admiral Makarov” Under Ukraine
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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Ukraine into its third month.
WEATHER FORECAST - The 10 day forecast has more rain in the extended forecast. Recent dry spell hasn’t helped muddy off road conditions in eastern Ukraine and still poses a negative off road maneuver effect
RUMINT -
Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate, “Admiral Makarov” of the Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet is reportedly on fire near Zmiiny (Snake) island in Black Sea and is one of the Russian navy’s newest vessels and the most state-of-the-art frigate operating in the Black Sea.
Unconfirmed reports suggest rescue vessels and aircraft have set off from Sevastopol towards the site, Reportedly hit by Ukraine anti ship missiles. Very much RUMINT yesterday when things started to float around the inter webs. Overnight more evidence pro and con came out. Moderate increase in US/NATO airborne intel noted, with the latests RAF Rivet Joint operation off Crimea and south Russia. Area normally covered by a drone.
Rumor was resurrected when Oleksiy Goncharenko, head of Odesa regional council, said Russian frigate Admiral Makarov got into ‘trouble’ in the Black Sea overnight.
If this report is correct, this will be the second capitol ship lost by to Ukraine Neptune ASM’s The Kremlin has denied that it has any information about a reported Ukrainian strike on a Russian warship in the Black Sea.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukraine announced that it was launching the 2nd, offensive phase of its war with Russia, after claiming Russian forces have ‘stalled’ in their own offensive moves. Ukraine forces are launching a counter-offensive Kharkiv / Izyum (Khariv front) region. Ukraine forces didn’t launch any further attacks in the area, likely in preparation to supply up for the counter offensive. Ukraine did repel Russian attempts to regain lost positions in the region.
Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations toward Zaporizhia City but did not conduct any attacks in Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Russian forces continued to strike Khariv and surrounding with artillery fire.
As noted above, Ukraine forces now planning a significant counter offensive in the Kharkiv / Izyum that will build upon the successes of the past week. This offensive has the potential of cutting off the Izyum salient and will force Russian to redeploy forces to protect its flank.
The Russian Izyum thrust has essentially been stalled for a week and Ukraine strike on the CP and logistics have placed those forces in a much reduced level of combat effectiveness. So much so that there are unconfirmed reports from the Ukrainian General Staff that elements of the 4th Tank Division and the 106th Airborne Division have been withdrawn to Russia after sustaining heavy losses in the Izyum axis in the past several days.
Further south, according to ISW, Ukrainian forces have so far prevented Russian forces from merging their offensives to the southeast of Izyum and the west of Lyman, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk,”.
Overnight, intense Russian artillery fire was observed around Yampil and Popasna.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian troops continue attacks on Azovstal. Reportedly Russian forces have breached the Azovstal facility itself, gaining access to the underground complex and are slowly taking it over.
Russian forces continue to be unsuccessful in pushing northward across the LOC to support the Russian advance coming from the south.
Crimea Front -
Russia conducted continued offensive operations toward Zaporizhia City, the purpose of which is to try to generate a breakout and develop a northeastern directed axis towards the Izyum, Lyman, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk region.
Russian troops shelled Zahradovka, Zelenodolsk, Kniazevka, Trudolyubivka, Topolyne, Dobrianka, Velyka Kostromka. Ukrainian forces shot down Orlan drone at Kryvyi Rih frontline.
Ukrainan forces continued to successfully push Russian forces away from Mykolaiv City.
Western Ukraine -
No significant actions.
Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report
OUTLOOK -
Watching the dynamics of the announced Ukrainian counter offensive in the Kharkiv / Izyum region. It has several potential goal.
1. Push Russian artillery out of range of the city and suburbs
2. Pivot to southeast and threaten to roll up the Izyum salient from the rear, cutting off logistics routes to the south.
3. Force Russian to divert units from their advances in the Lyman, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk, axes to defend against #2 above
4. Potentially open up opportunities to conduct cross border attacks into Russia targeting Russian bases and logistical support operations.
The Russian missile assault has tapered off and will likely be followed by spikes in activity as Russian BDA identifies new targets. It just doesn’t have the assets to conduct timely post strike assessments.
I see nothing that indicates Russia is going to do anything big out of the Crimea front. Attacks towards Zaporizhia City appear to be designed to fix Ukraine forces in place and prevent them from being redeployed to the east. Some are assessing that Russia is pausing in order to resume its attempt to capture all of Kherson Oblast, but this seems to be increasingly unlikely given the operational and man power requirement to force the capture of the Donbas region.
Probably by the end of today the mystery about the “Admiral Makarov” will be confirmed or denied. If true, this would be a huge hit on the Black Sea fleet.
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Moldova/Transnistria - ORANGE *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - This category added this week as false flag events hit Russian controlled Transnistria and Russia agitates this small country.
Events here are developing rapidly.
Transnistrian media reported unspecified indiscriminate shooting near the Kuchurhan-Pervomaisc border checkpoint with Ukraine on May 5, two days after Ukraine blocked the crossing.
OBSERVATION - Most likely false info or a false flag to further the tensions.
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Belarus - ORANGE *updated 04-22-22*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.
The current Belarus military alert exercises are unlikely to result in any kind of invasion of Western Ukraine.
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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland remains in Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.
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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - NATO nations continue to funnel war supplies to Ukraine. Now they are hosting Ukrainan soldiers training on more modern pieces of equipment being delivered to the country.
U.S. would be able to provide more military aid to Sweden and Finland ahead of accession to the NATO alliance if they are threatened by Russia - Pentagon
Estonia is pushing for a 7th EU sanctions package to target new areas of the Russian economy
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Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Several terror attacks by West Bank Palestinians has caused tensions to skyrocket over the past week.
Russian President Putin apologized to Israeli Prime Minster Bennett for comments made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who said that Hitler had Jewish blood and that jews are the biggest antisemites.
OBSERVATION - Putin trying to undo the damage done by his conspiracy loon foreign minister, Lavrov. Russia has been trying to do a delicate balancing act working with Israel concerning Hezebollah in Syria. Putin also cannot afford to start having Israel providing more lethal defensive arms and material to Ukraine.
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Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*
The US Senate on Wednesday passed a non-binding motion demanding that any nuclear agreement reached with Iran also address the Islamic Republic’s ballistic missile program and support for proxies in the region.
OBSERVATION - This is a non binding resolution - a nothing burger. Iran is going to get its way and biden is more than happy to allow that.
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Lebanon - YELLOW
The UN chief called for Lebanon’s parliamentary elections on May 15 to be “free, fair, transparent and inclusive” in a report circulated Wednesday, and warned of Hezbollah’s destabilizing presence in the country that is undergoing multiple crises.
OBSERVATION - There has been increasing anger towards Hezbollah by the general population because they essentially control the current govt and essentially own the current economic meltdown.
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Syria - YELLOW
After a lot of bombing/artillery action in Idlib, and a Turkish offensive in the north against Kurds, things have quieted down substantially over the past few days.
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