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Just when you think things cannot get any hotter . . . . .
It has been taking me about an hour extra time to go through my news sources to put these reports together.

Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key

BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.

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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ukraine war has allowed GGR to operate towards the ‘reset’ without much news coverage.

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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Doom cries about a new ‘variant’ poking their head up.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced on Thursday that it would limit who can receive the Johnson & Johnson/Janssen Covid-19 shot due to the serious risk of blood clots.
The FDA announced that it would limit the authorized use of J&J Covid-19 shot to individuals 18 years of age and older for whom other authorized or approved COVID-19 vaccines are not accessible or clinically appropriate, and to individuals 18 years of age and older who elect to receive the Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine because they would otherwise not receive a COVID-19 vaccine.

OBSERVATION - Now when will similar be issued for Pfizer and Moderna mRNA jabs?
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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world.

Markets were hammered yesterday, some analysts think due to delayed reaction from the fed raising its rates by 0.5% -
NASDAQ, largest one day percentage plunge since June 11th, 2020.
DOW, largest one day percentage plunge since October 28th, 2020.
RUSSELL 2000, largest one day percentage plunge since June 11th, 2020.

Worker productivity fell to start 2022 at its fastest pace in nearly 75 years while labor costs soared as the U.S. struggled with surging Covid cases, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. At the same time, unit labor costs soared 11.6%, bringing the increase over the past four quarters to 7.2%, the biggest gain since the third quarter of 1982.

The Biden administration plans to seek bids this fall to buy 60 million barrels of crude oil as the first step in a years-long process aimed at replenishing America’s emergency oil reserve, an Energy Department official told CNN.
This would mark the first time since the early 2000s that the Energy Department has acquired large quantities of oil for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the largest emergency supply of oil on the planet.

OBSERVATION - The oil releases have done absolutely nothing to lower prices. Biden is still on track to continue releases throughout the summer.
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Biden’s policies guarantee uncontrollable flood of illegals starting next month.

Seventy-four percent of Americans say the Biden administration is not equipped to handle the expected surge in illegal border crossings should it end Title 42, a pandemic-era border restriction put in place by the Trump administration early in the coronavirus pandemic that allows U.S. border officials to turn away migrants who have reached the U.S., according to a CNN poll released Wednesday.
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Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.

Reports of tensions between Kamala Harris and Joe Biden have abounded over the past year. Most recently, “Privately, Harris has advocated for additional loan forgiveness. One White House source said her office seemed initially eager to participate in the administration’s public dialogue around student loans,” the report says. “But conscious of progressives pushing Biden to unilaterally cancel tens of thousands of dollars in student debt and that Biden is resisting such lobbying, the vice president has been increasingly wary of becoming part of the public face of the administration’s response.”
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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - Leaked USSC draft decision has caused this to heat up. Pushing to borderline RED Antifa trying to piggy back proabort protests for general violence. Monitoring to see if this gains traction.

Antifa have announced plans for a violent direct action at Pan Pacific Park in Los Angeles on May 6 at 7 pm in support of abortion. They’ve created digital flyers & instructions on how to avoid being identified.
Chicago Antifa have announced a direct action in Federal Plaza for Saturday, May 7 at 12 p.m. They explicitly warn against “peace police,” e.g. people who try to stop them from being violent.

Antifa account @rechelon has compiled a list of addresses of centers to target in the Portland-area. The purpose is to facilitate attacking and putting out hits on pregnancy centers in Portland, OR.

OBSERVATION - The success or failure to get significant Antifa turnout for these events will serve a one gauge of how much traction the proabort protests is giving towards the start of pre midterm rioting.

Pro-abortion activists are targeting Catholic churches for protests on Mother’s Day, with some citing the Roman Catholic faith of multiple justices who reportedly at one point supported the leaked draft opinion striking down Roe v. Wade. The organization Rise Up 4 Abortion Rights has organized a “week of action” beginning on May 8, Mother’s Day, with “Actions Outside of Churches.” One can expect Antifa to try to piggyback on these as well.

Virginia Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares sent a letter signed by 20 GOP attorneys general on Thursday to Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas threatening legal action against its ‘un-American’ Disinformation Governance Board. The letter claims that the new board violates the constitutional freedoms that attorneys general are called to defend.

On Wednesday, Joe Biden falsely characterized MAGA Republicans as the “most extremist” political group in U.S. history. Later that day, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki confirmed that Biden meant what he said.
The name-calling started on Wednesday morning, when Joe Biden sent up a test balloon for a new way to attack conservatives, Republicans and Trump supporters by calling them “ultra MAGAs.” Later, during her White House press conference, Biden spokeswoman Jen Psaki essentially noted that Biden meant what he said. “But he is still going to call out where he sees extremist actions and extremist rhetoric,” Psaki exclaimed.

OBSERVATION -Some pundits have likened this to hillary’s “deplorable” moment.
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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*

A lot of parallel political actions in response to the USSC leak and upcoming midterms.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
On-going NATO support operations to Ukraine.

Russian continues to threaten NATO resupply efforts.
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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
DISCUSSION - Expanding lock downs threaten to tank what limited economic recovery China has had post wuhan and the rest of the globe are facing new supply shortages.
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North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - North Korea held a highly-expected military parade on Monday. Meanwhile NUKE test watch continues as work at the test site continues.

Following this week’s SRBM test, all eyes continue to watch NK’s underground nuclear test facility for a potential test of a ‘tactical’ nuclear device some time this month.
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Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - Japan continues to upgrade its military and alliances in the face of Chinese aggression and NK nuclear aspirations.

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Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - ONGOING -

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has kicked off their offensive to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russian continues its prep for the annual May 9th parade and activities. Mixed signals on if putin is going to declare war against Ukraine.

RUMINT -
See discussion regarding the “Admiral Makarov” Under Ukraine
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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Ukraine into its third month.

WEATHER FORECAST - The 10 day forecast has more rain in the extended forecast. Recent dry spell hasn’t helped muddy off road conditions in eastern Ukraine and still poses a negative off road maneuver effect

RUMINT -
Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate, “Admiral Makarov” of the Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet is reportedly on fire near Zmiiny (Snake) island in Black Sea and is one of the Russian navy’s newest vessels and the most state-of-the-art frigate operating in the Black Sea.
Unconfirmed reports suggest rescue vessels and aircraft have set off from Sevastopol towards the site, Reportedly hit by Ukraine anti ship missiles. Very much RUMINT yesterday when things started to float around the inter webs. Overnight more evidence pro and con came out. Moderate increase in US/NATO airborne intel noted, with the latests RAF Rivet Joint operation off Crimea and south Russia. Area normally covered by a drone.
Rumor was resurrected when Oleksiy Goncharenko, head of Odesa regional council, said Russian frigate Admiral Makarov got into ‘trouble’ in the Black Sea overnight.

If this report is correct, this will be the second capitol ship lost by to Ukraine Neptune ASM’s The Kremlin has denied that it has any information about a reported Ukrainian strike on a Russian warship in the Black Sea.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukraine announced that it was launching the 2nd, offensive phase of its war with Russia, after claiming Russian forces have ‘stalled’ in their own offensive moves. Ukraine forces are launching a counter-offensive Kharkiv / Izyum (Khariv front) region. Ukraine forces didn’t launch any further attacks in the area, likely in preparation to supply up for the counter offensive. Ukraine did repel Russian attempts to regain lost positions in the region.

Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations toward Zaporizhia City but did not conduct any attacks in Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Russian forces continued to strike Khariv and surrounding with artillery fire.
As noted above, Ukraine forces now planning a significant counter offensive in the Kharkiv / Izyum that will build upon the successes of the past week. This offensive has the potential of cutting off the Izyum salient and will force Russian to redeploy forces to protect its flank.

The Russian Izyum thrust has essentially been stalled for a week and Ukraine strike on the CP and logistics have placed those forces in a much reduced level of combat effectiveness. So much so that there are unconfirmed reports from the Ukrainian General Staff that elements of the 4th Tank Division and the 106th Airborne Division have been withdrawn to Russia after sustaining heavy losses in the Izyum axis in the past several days.

Further south, according to ISW, Ukrainian forces have so far prevented Russian forces from merging their offensives to the southeast of Izyum and the west of Lyman, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk,”.
Overnight, intense Russian artillery fire was observed around Yampil and Popasna.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian troops continue attacks on Azovstal. Reportedly Russian forces have breached the Azovstal facility itself, gaining access to the underground complex and are slowly taking it over.

Russian forces continue to be unsuccessful in pushing northward across the LOC to support the Russian advance coming from the south.

Crimea Front -
Russia conducted continued offensive operations toward Zaporizhia City, the purpose of which is to try to generate a breakout and develop a northeastern directed axis towards the Izyum, Lyman, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk region.

Russian troops shelled Zahradovka, Zelenodolsk, Kniazevka, Trudolyubivka, Topolyne, Dobrianka, Velyka Kostromka. Ukrainian forces shot down Orlan drone at Kryvyi Rih frontline.

Ukrainan forces continued to successfully push Russian forces away from Mykolaiv City.

Western Ukraine -
No significant actions.

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report

OUTLOOK -
Watching the dynamics of the announced Ukrainian counter offensive in the Kharkiv / Izyum region. It has several potential goal.
1. Push Russian artillery out of range of the city and suburbs
2. Pivot to southeast and threaten to roll up the Izyum salient from the rear, cutting off logistics routes to the south.
3. Force Russian to divert units from their advances in the Lyman, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk, axes to defend against #2 above
4. Potentially open up opportunities to conduct cross border attacks into Russia targeting Russian bases and logistical support operations.

The Russian missile assault has tapered off and will likely be followed by spikes in activity as Russian BDA identifies new targets. It just doesn’t have the assets to conduct timely post strike assessments.

I see nothing that indicates Russia is going to do anything big out of the Crimea front. Attacks towards Zaporizhia City appear to be designed to fix Ukraine forces in place and prevent them from being redeployed to the east. Some are assessing that Russia is pausing in order to resume its attempt to capture all of Kherson Oblast, but this seems to be increasingly unlikely given the operational and man power requirement to force the capture of the Donbas region.

Probably by the end of today the mystery about the “Admiral Makarov” will be confirmed or denied. If true, this would be a huge hit on the Black Sea fleet.

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Moldova/Transnistria - ORANGE *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - This category added this week as false flag events hit Russian controlled Transnistria and Russia agitates this small country.

Events here are developing rapidly.

Transnistrian media reported unspecified indiscriminate shooting near the Kuchurhan-Pervomaisc border checkpoint with Ukraine on May 5, two days after Ukraine blocked the crossing.

OBSERVATION - Most likely false info or a false flag to further the tensions.

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Belarus - ORANGE *updated 04-22-22*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.

The current Belarus military alert exercises are unlikely to result in any kind of invasion of Western Ukraine.
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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland remains in Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.

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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - NATO nations continue to funnel war supplies to Ukraine. Now they are hosting Ukrainan soldiers training on more modern pieces of equipment being delivered to the country.

U.S. would be able to provide more military aid to Sweden and Finland ahead of accession to the NATO alliance if they are threatened by Russia - Pentagon

Estonia is pushing for a 7th EU sanctions package to target new areas of the Russian economy

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Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Several terror attacks by West Bank Palestinians has caused tensions to skyrocket over the past week.

Russian President Putin apologized to Israeli Prime Minster Bennett for comments made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who said that Hitler had Jewish blood and that jews are the biggest antisemites.

OBSERVATION - Putin trying to undo the damage done by his conspiracy loon foreign minister, Lavrov. Russia has been trying to do a delicate balancing act working with Israel concerning Hezebollah in Syria. Putin also cannot afford to start having Israel providing more lethal defensive arms and material to Ukraine.
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Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*

The US Senate on Wednesday passed a non-binding motion demanding that any nuclear agreement reached with Iran also address the Islamic Republic’s ballistic missile program and support for proxies in the region.

OBSERVATION - This is a non binding resolution - a nothing burger. Iran is going to get its way and biden is more than happy to allow that.

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Lebanon - YELLOW

The UN chief called for Lebanon’s parliamentary elections on May 15 to be “free, fair, transparent and inclusive” in a report circulated Wednesday, and warned of Hezbollah’s destabilizing presence in the country that is undergoing multiple crises.

OBSERVATION - There has been increasing anger towards Hezbollah by the general population because they essentially control the current govt and essentially own the current economic meltdown.
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Syria - YELLOW

After a lot of bombing/artillery action in Idlib, and a Turkish offensive in the north against Kurds, things have quieted down substantially over the past few days.
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