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Globalism / Great Reset -
A London-based company has developed a new contactless payment system that involves embedding a microchip into a person’s hand. Tech company Walletmor has developed a new app called Purewrist, which is a digital wallet combined with a microchip that can be installed in your hand. Once the chip is installed, a person can then use the app and chip to make payments to businesses that also use the app. Walletmore’s chip is quite light and is only a bit bigger than a grain of rice and is composed of a microchip and an antenna, which is surrounded by biopolymer.
OBSERVATION - This easily fits into the GGR’s desire for the use of biometrics to track people and purchases. Also raises red flags of biblical proportion.
Samantha Power celebrated the global fertilizer shortage resulting from the Ukraine conflict, claiming it will “hasten transitions” for farmers to use “natural solutions.”
Power, who now serves as the Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), said the fertilizer shortages are actually “in the interest of farmers”, claiming “manure and compost” are more eco-friendly alternatives. “And this may hasten transitions that would have been in the interest of farmers to make eventually anyway. So, never let a crisis go to waste,” she said.
OBSERVATION - Opinions from an individual who really doesn’t know how the food gets to her table - and largely doesn’t care because she is one of the elites.
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Wuhan virus -
A recently published study from Israel has confirmed a strong correlation between a massive increase in emergency cardiovascular events among people under 40 and the beginning of the country’s Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) mass vaccination program.
Anthony Fauci attended yesterday’s White House Correspondents’ Dinner pre-party without a mask. The crowded room would have been called a super-spreader event if there were Republicans there, but since it was mostly leftist politicians and corporate media folks, they didn’t even pretend to social distance.
Microsoft billionaire Bill Gates says the world has not seen the worst of Covid yet.
OBSERVATION - Remember Gates participated in the wuhan gaming session in 2019 that preceded the breakout of the disease a month or so later.
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Economy -
Good news, by April 24, topsoil moisture was rated at surplus in all Midwestern states except Iowa, according to today’s Drought Monitor report of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The bad news, as a result, corn seeding is at least 10 percentage points behind the five-year average planting pace in Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Minnesota, and Missouri.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -
Musk engaged ORC in a battle of wits, is chastised for fighting an unarmed opponent. . . . .
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
Reports that the US has used up about 1/3d of its Javelin stockpile and is facing difficulties in restocking.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 66)
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Continued discussion on putin’s health. If he is going under the knife, I suspect that he will wait untl after May 9th in the event that something bad happens on the table.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- See discussion about Gerasimov below under Ukraine.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying..
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Rumors exploded (no pun intended) over the weekend concerning Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov having been caught and wounded in the Ukraine attack on a CP outside of Izyum. Here’s the best established facts.
1. Ukrainian forces conducted a rocket artillery strike on a Russian command post in Izyum on April 30 that struck after Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov had left.
2. More than 40 high-ranked Russian military officers gathered in the CP and reportedly, up to 20 of them are confirmed killed incl. Gen. Andrey Simonov, a commander of electronic warfare forces of the West district.
3. Two U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential intelligence assessments, confirmed that General Gerasimov had been in eastern Ukraine for the past couple days, but had no information about the attack on the Russian base.
4. A Senior Ukrainian official denied reports that Gerasimov was wounded on the visit, but said a Ukrainian attack on a base in Izium that the general had visited hours earlier killed up to 200 servicemen, including a general.
5. Gerasimov reportedly departed the CP less than an hour before the attack and flew by helicopter to Belgorod, boarded an aircraft and returned to Moscow.
6. Gerasimov was on a visit of the front lines and was not taking on site control of the offensive.
OBSERVATION - The ability of Ukraine to collect time sensitive targetable intelligence and launch a successful attack is mind boggling incredible to this formerly military mind. Even if the US/NATO is the source of the intelligence, the ability of Ukraine to pull the trigger and get ‘er done is just wow.
Combat levels throughout Ukraine lowered slightly overnight, likely representing a Russian pause to rearm and refuel. Russian is trying to avoid the same mistakes it made in the north.
Activity picked up in the Black Sea area around the now infamous Snake Island. Other Russian naval activity noted around Crimea with Russia relying more on sub launched cruse missiles than more vulnerable surface vessels.
The 60 day state of emergency for Belgorod Oblast reflects an increasing threat that Ukraine assets can influence Russian logistical / military operations in areas once considered safe.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Russian forces continued to shell the suburbs of Kharkiv City. Ukrainian forces continued successful attacks to push Russian forces away from Kharkiv and towards the Russian border. These attacks are likely drawing forces away that are needed further south to advance the Donbas offensive. Is is also starting to place Russian territory at risk from a ground assault.
Further south, Russian troops continued to focus efforts on completing the seizures of Rubizhne and Popasna with ground assaults supported by artillery, but were unsuccessful. Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian forces made limited advances in the direction of Lyman via Krymky and Oleksandrivka and attempted to advance toward Kurakhove via Olenivka and Novomykhailvka. Russian forces are experiencing relatively more success pushing southwestward in Donetsk Oblast in the Lyman direction. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces mounted an unsuccessful attack against Ozerne, which indicates that Russian forces have likely made limited gains to the south and west of Yampil (which is less than 15 km southeast of Lyman)
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Ukrainian National Guard brigade commander Denys Shlega said Sunday in a televised interview that Russia’s bombardment of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol resumed right after the partial evacuation of civilians. Only 100 people made it on their way to Ukrainian-controlled territory. It is estimated that several hundred civilians remain at the steel plant.
Russian attacks on Ukrainian defensive positions along the pre-February 24 front lines continue to fail to make substantial progress. Repeated Russian failures to capture villages such as Zolote and Vilne suggest that pre-invasion Ukrainian defensive positions are too strong for Russian troops to storm. This is seriously imparting Russian efforts to push northward to join up with forces pushing southward from Izyum - Lyman region.
Crimea Front -
Continued heightened Russian Navy activity in Lake Donuzlav, in northwestern Crimea. Special gunboats and fast landing craft are deployed there. The landing craft were (again) seen running at high speed.
Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian military hit Russian positions at Zmiiny (Snake) island. Two Russian Navy Project 03160 ‘Raptor’ patrol boats were also struck by Bayraktar TB2 UCAVs near Snake Island. Ukraine navy does have TB2s.
Russian troops attempted to advance near Ivanovka-Zahradivka, but failed.
Ukraine security services foiled Russian attempt to destabilize situation in Odesa. 12 suspected saboteurs detained, weapons and ammunition seized. Also 2 person connected to former MP Ilya Kiva detained
New Russian missile strike at the bridge over Dnistrovsky Lyman in Odesa region
Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant reported.
Russian Territory -
A 60 day state of emergency on the territory of the Belgorod Region was declared by the Kremlin yesterday.
Overnight, Russian air defense units were targeting unknown aircraft (possible UAVs?) above Belgorod. There was also what appeared to be a fighter jet deploying flairs over Belgorod.
OBSERVATION - Aerial intrusion over Belgorod at this stage is largely psyops, letting the Russians know they are not safe. It also serves to divert Russian focus from Donbas to protecting strategic supply lines that pass through Belgorod.
Explosions in Rylsk area of Kursk region, air defense is active
Railway bridge collapsed between Sudzha and Sosnovy Bor in Kursk region of Russia, Governor blames saboteurs. Explosion reported in Belgorod Russia, with initial reports suggesting it may be a weapons depot. The Governor of the Belgorod Region confirmed that there is a fire in a facility belonging to Russia’s Ministry of Defense. At least two separate fires are visible on social media postings.
Some observers are noting suspicious fires further into Russian, some are dismissing as coincidence. In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire under suspicious conditions.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term. Russian forces continue to be largely stalled along nearly all of the front with no apparent breakout pending. In spite of being reinforced by elements redeployed from the failed Kyiv campaign, Russian doesn’t really have the mass of forces necessary to capture Donbas and appear to be repeating many of the same errors that plagued them there.
Review of Russian objective for this Phase 2 war effort -
1. Capture of the Donbas region.
2. Establish a land bridge between Separatist controlled regions and Crimea
3. Capture and control all Ukrainan access to the Black Sea
4. Establish a land bridge to Russian controlled Transnistria.
It is apparent that goals 1, 3 and 4 are not happening, while 2 has been largely accomplished.
Some analyasts believe that Russian forces are attempting to set conditions to mount an offensive in the directions of Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih, in the Crimea front region. Such an offensive operation will force the drainage of combat power needed for the Donbas offensive.
More speculation on what role Transnistria based forces will play in this conflict. Some analysts are suspecting that the two poorly manned and equipped motorized rifle battalions (1500-2000 men) will launch some sort of supporting attack to link up with an amphibious operation to attack Odesa from the west while Russia musters an offensive from the east from the Kherson region. This may be why Russian has taken the time to strike the bridge over Dnistrovsky Lyman in Odesa region for a third time. This would impede Ukraine reinforcement against any Russian operation to the east of the bridge, potentially increasing the chances of success. Those Russian forces could swing northward into Transnistria and pivot to the east towards Odesa. One possible Russian goal would be to divert forces away from the Donbas effort.
Audacious in the short term, but likely to fail epically in the longer as Russian forces are already stretched very thin and it hasn’t shown the capability to execute such a complex plan. Still, the situation in area of Ukraine needs to be monitored because something is afoot and the full extent still hasn’t reared its head yet.
Expect more actions against Russian facilities in Russia, not only in Belgorod Oblast but potentially deeper into Russia, as these pin prick attacks are complicating Russian planning for the Ukraine operation.
Finally, continued monitoring of putin’s health and any declarations to be made in conjunction with the May 9 parade/ceremonies.
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Moldova/Transnistria -
According to Ukrainian intelligence sources cited by the UK’s Times newspaper, an invasion of Moldova would help Russia threaten the Ukrainian city of Odesa from the west. They reportedly said Odesa would be an easier target if Moscow controlled Moldova - and the Moldovan army only consisted of a few thousand troops. Tension has already been rising in the pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria, where there’s been a series of unexplained explosions.
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Belarus -
About 80 railway control boxes were burned along key rail lines supporting Russian logistics, near stations and crossings. Belarusian partisans also set on fire the main control station at the Baronivichi train station .
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Poland -
The Polish Government has announced that Large-Scale Military Exercises will be taking place across the Country beginning today involving the Polish Military and multiple NATO Member States, heavy military equipment is expected to be seen on highways and roads around the country.
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Europe / NATO General -
EU remains unable to agree on ending supplies of Russian gas, Germany’s economy minister says. Ministers are due to have emergency talks, but Hungary has made it clear it will block consensus
Denmark summoned Russia’s ambassador after a Russian spy plane violates its airspace.
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Israel -
Jordan has blamed Israel for the violence on the temple mount and Al-Aqsa mosque and for violating the status quo there. And now, it is demanding total control over the Temple Mount. Jordan is also concerned The country is also concerned that Hamas is replacing it as custodian and “gatekeeper” of the Temple Mount.
Jordan reportedly submitted a letter to the Biden administration, demanding the Waqf (Muslim religious guards) be given total control over the Temple Mount. It wants to institute a dress code for non-Muslims, as well as limit visitors to groups no larger than five people. Jordan is also demanding that Israel Police no longer be allowed on the Temple Mount, even if rioters attack Jewish worshippers at the Western Wall or visitors to the site itself.
Its demands also include giving the Waqf the authority to severely restrict non-Muslim visits to the Temple Mount; requiring non-Muslims to apply to visit in writing in advance; and setting restrictive tour routes of no more than 500 feet (150 meters) in each direction for non-Muslim visitors.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said over the weekend that Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler had “Jewish blood,” prompting a furious response from Israel. Israeli Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian Ambassador Over Lavrov’s statement
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Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Unconfirmed Reports today that Azerbaijan has joined Turkey in closing its Airspace to Russian Military Aircraft.
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Wuhan virus -
After months of declining numbers, California has recorded a nearly 30% increase in coronavirus cases over the last week along with smaller rises in hospitalizations, causing some health officials to suspect that the state is headed into a new pandemic wave.
OBSERVATION - No word on lethality of this variant.
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Economy
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its index of national factory activity fell to a reading of 55.4 last month from 57.1 in March.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for 12% of the U.S. economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index rising to 57.6.
OBSERVATION - Near term economic data shows no signs of inflation and associated economic troubles turning anytime soon.
Oil prices fell on Monday as concerns about weak economic growth in China, the world’s top oil importer, outweighed fears of potential supply stress from a potential European Union ban on Russian crude.
Brent crude futures fell 71 cents, or 0.6%, to $106.43 a barrel at 0801 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 70 cents, or 0.6%, to $103.99 a barrel.
OBSERVATION - Oil prices continue to be volatile, don’t expect prices to significantly drop any time soon.
After its latest rate-setting meeting ends Wednesday, the Fed will almost certainly announce that it’s raising its benchmark short-term interest rate by a half-percentage point — the sharpest rate hike since 2000. The Fed will likely carry out another half-point rate hike at its next meeting in June and possibly at the next one after that, in July. Economists foresee still further rate hikes in the months to follow.
OBSERVATION - half point (0.5%) increases have the potential to wreck any ‘easy landing’ of inflation and many continue to warn that is can cause a deep recession or even depression.
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Invasion of Illegals -
On CNN’s “The State of Our Union”, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas told Dana Bash that since Sept 2021, DHS has been preparing to start handling and processing 18,000 illegal aliens per day – 540,000 a month – as soon as CDC Title 42 is lifted.
That comes to 3 million people by the November election. Roughly ten million anonymous people have poured into the country under Joe Biden. We could have 30 million by 2024. That’s the population of Texas.
April reportedly hit new records of intercepted Illegals and ‘got-aways’
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Things exploded last night with the ‘leak’ to Politico of a draft opinion reportedly written by Justice Alito that signals the U.S. Supreme Court is ready to overturn its decision in Roe v. Wade. The result was rapid (some say coordinated with the leak) mobilization of pro-abortion supporters (including LGBT and some Antifa elements) to the front of the Supreme Court. Pro life elements also arrived there. Barricades are up around the Supreme Court building, just minutes after reports from Politico report. There were some limited scuffles between opposing sides.
Vigils/protests are expected to continue and grow through today at the very least.
The disclosure of a draft ruling (98 pages) by the high court is unprecedented. Whoever leaked the alleged draft of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has committed the “original sin for judicial ethics,” said Jonathan Turley, criminal defense attorney and Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University. Turley said the leak represents “one of the greatest breaches of security in the history of the Court.” Turley noted that if Politico indeed obtained a true copy of the drafted opinion, “it is hard not to view this as a malicious act.” Alan Dershowitz has even come out expressing shock and anger on this release. The FBI reportedly begun an investigation.
OBSERVATION - This leak was almost certainly an act of deliberate sabotage.
1. Designed to inflame public emotions and promote pressure on the court.
2. Designed to mobilize democrat grass roots to try to reverse the democrat death spiral headed into the midterms. (this may backfire by mobilizing conservative elements as well), 189 days out.
3. Apply further pressure on congress to overturn the filibuster and general momentum to enlarge and pack the court with liberals.
Never has there been a leak like this from the USSC. The court is a tight operation and the leaker has already been zeroed in on - an aid to Justice Sotomayor - who’s had interactions with Politico in the past. It is apparent that leftists are now willing to destroy the institutional integrity of the USSC to maintain power.
BTW - This is the second leak - the first leak was Justice Briars retirement. Chief Justice Roberts has to come down hard to protect and restore the integrity of the USSC process.
Antifa has started callouts for nationwide protests against the potential over turning Roe v Wade.
Very high possibility of a spike in violence against pro-life leaders and organizations.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
The fillibuster war has suddenly been tossed onto the front burner.
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China -
US warns China it will be subject to sanctions if it sends weapons to Russia.
China, with over $3.2 trillion in international reserves, is working to reconfigure its asset portfolio to protect it from potential future U.S. sanctions. Chinese government officials met with bankers in an emergency meeting last week to discuss how the state might protect its assets should it face the same penalties Russia is facing over its invasion of Ukraine. According to the Financial Times, China’s central bank and finance ministry officials met with dozens of representatives of foreign and domestic banks, including financial giant HSBC. (FO)
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now entering the third month of the war (day 69)
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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All eyes on Moscow and the May 9th activities. The consensus it that putin will declare war against Ukraine - escalating it from a ‘special military operation’. This will also include a broad mobilization and conscription of the population. May 7th may be more important to Putin than the 9th. According to US intel officials- no specifics provided.
U.S. officials have confirmed that General Gerasimov ( chief of the general staff of the Russian military) did visit the front-lines in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian officials learned of the visit and launched a strike on one position that he visited, but it was too late (NYT).
A pro-Russian cyber group called Killnet targeted Romanian government websites and is considering other targets. A widespread distributed denial of service attack shut down Romanian government websites, including the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Romania’s tax collection agency, and the Romanian Gendarmerie.
Logistics -
- Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost 600 tanks since it began its invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Russian daily tank loss rate is now at the highest level of the war.
Economic Impacts -
- Finland has terminated a contract with Russia’s Rosatom to construct a third nuclear power plant . The deal is worth $7.8 billion
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers returning to forecast towards the end of the 10 day forecast after several days of drying.
RUMINT -
The Ukrainian government is claiming that they disrupted a Russian false flag operation to shoot down a passenger plane over Russia or Belarus using an illicitly-acquired US Stinger MANPADS
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
A senior US defense official describes the Russian offensive in Eastern Ukraine as “anemic”, “Russia moves into an area in the Donbas region, claims victory, then withdraws.” Other observers have noted a definite slow down in the tempo of Russian attacks. Artillery attacks did continue, but at lower levels as well.
It is being noted that Ukraine has become increasingly proficient in downing Russian drones, using EW (jamming) methods.
Ukraine’s ombudswoman for human rights said Ukrainians came back with sepsis, severe wounds, amputated limbs, and toes due to frostbite. Russia is torturing Ukrainians at “filtration camps” after essentially kidnapping people by the thousands under the guise of humanitarian evacuations.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report.
Russian army shelled Hlukhiv border community in Sumy region with mortars
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area highly fluid and dynamic.
Russian troops shelled central Kharkiv, Pavlove Pole, Zolochiv , and Oleksiivka
Ukraine offensive in the area of Kharkiv moves forward with success as Ukraine’s military have pushed the Russian military about 40 km back from Kharkiv according to a Senior US Defense Official. This places Ukraine artillery within range of Russia’s main supply routes to Izyum.
On the southern end of this front, Russian troops continued to focus on completing the seizure of Rubizhne and Popasna. Russian BTGs are reportedly being moved forward in these areas to facilitate operations and enable future operations to the southwest. The Ukrainian artillery strike on the Russian command post in Izyum appears to have disrupted Russian attacks staging from Izyum and likely those farther south.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Russian troops launched another ground assault attempt at Azovstal in Mariupol after hours of aerial bombardment. Only a handful of civilians have been allowed by Russia to evacuate the city and specifically, the Azovstal bunkers. No successful attacks launched northward to join those attack axis coming south from the Izyum region.
Crimea Front -
Generally, things have been relatively static in this area. Ukraine intelligence assess that Russians are trying to prevent Ukraine from capturing Kherson while at the same time trying to prepare to resume offensives toward Odesa and towards Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhia.
Reports that Ukrainian military hit Russian positions at Zmiiny (Snake) island using Bayraktar TB2 UCAVs. These TB 2 attacks reportedly have destroyed all the ADA and comms elements placed on the island by Russia and reportedly killed up to 44 Russian soldiers manning the equipment.
Two Russian Navy Project 03160 ‘Raptor’ patrol boats were also struck by Bayraktar TB2 UCAVs near Snake Island (others report that they were reconnoitered the Danube River delta ) and likely sunk.
OBSERVATION - These TB2 are becoming the gold standard. From Libya, to Syria to Azerbaijan/Armenia they have been the bane of Russia and Russian backed forces.
Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant reported.
Russian Territory -
In Belgorod, Russia sirens and car alarms were going off after an explosions. RIA Novosti reports a loud “clap” in central Belgorod (a Russian euphemism for an explosion), similar to the sound of an explosion of medium strength. Later ADA missile launches were noted over Tavrovo and Nikolske, Belgorod
NOTICE - Many suspicious fires being reported across greater Russia. May or may not are linked to the Ukraine war but I’m listing them here for situation awareness-
- NASA’s FIRMS recently detected a large fire at a warehouse in the Bogorodskoye district of Moscow. The fire is reported to cover an area of 34,000 square meters, or 8.5 acres. The facility is reportedly leased by the “Prosveshchenie” publishing house (the company that makes most of Russia’s school textbooks) is very much on fire right now. Roughly 323k square feet of books.
- Smoke has been reported and photographed over Perm ammunition factory today. Perm is a traditional (over 200 years history) Russian defense industry stronghold, second only to Tula. The affected factory produces artillery ammunition, incl. MLRS rockets (but no more). The City of Perm is situated on the banks of the Kama River in the Ural Mountains a thousand miles east of Moscow.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes foreseen in the near term. Russian forces continue to be largely stalled along nearly all of the front with no apparent breakout pending. US officials call it ‘anemic’.
Russian efforts in the east appear to have been disrupted by the missile strike in Izyum in combination with Ukrane’s dynamic mobile defense is largely stalled, after several weeks of this new ‘offensive’. Coordination between the different commands continue to be very poor and even the application of more strategic operations, such air/sea launched cruse missiles, appear to be disjointed and poorly sustained. I don’t expect them to get their act together in the near term.
Ukraine offensive pushing Russian forces away from Khariv is setting the stage for more significant interdiction of Russian supplies to the Izyum region and further threaten a cross border strike(s) towards Belgorod. Russia is being forced to deal with this offensive and it is bleeding off forces necessary for the northern portion of the Donbas offensive.
I agree with numerous other analysts/observers - Russia doesn’t have the forces necessary to capture the rest of the Donbas. It appears that Russia is trying to mitigate this by preparing to assimilate terrain captured into Russia proper - a declaration likely on May 9th.
Transnistria soap opera continues with a lot of conflicting information. There is a degree of credibility from Ukrainian intelligence based on their accurate prognostications to date that Russia is trying to figure out how to open a new front to permit operations against Odesa to proceed. Very high gamble operation.
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Moldova/Transnistria -
Ukrainian intelligence reports activity at the Tiraspol airfield. Sources say that Russia plans to land Il-76 transport aircrafts and helicopters in Transnistria flying from the occupied Crimea. At the same time in Chisinau, Russia is planning to organize riots and protests. However, according to a senior U.S. defense official the U.S. has NO indications that Russia is planning an imminent invasion of Moldova
OBSERVATION - For Russia to accomplish this airlift, it would be forced to transit over Ukraine territory loaded with ADA assets. The Odessa region is also heavily covered by US/NATO airborne intelligence collectors which may likely provide early warning and vectors to the incoming aircraft. It has the potential to turn into a turkey shoot.
Ukraine border checkpoint with Transnistria is been blocked now by large concrete blocks. Basically closed.
The Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is urging its Citizens to leave the Moldovan Breakaway Region of Transnistria as soon as possible and to avoid all unnecessary travel to Moldova.
PROPAGANDA / RED FLAG ALERT - Russian media outlets claim that another attack was foiled in Transnistria, Moldova, claiming that a drone with explosives, which would have been used to target radio and TV center, was neutralized.
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Europe / NATO General -
Emmanuel Macron has a call scheduled today with Putin. It will be the first call between the two since March 29th. Source: Elysée.
NATO begins its largest Special Operations Forces exercise “to date.” Includes Finland, Sweden, Georgia. Trojan Footprint 22 kicks off today with over 3,300 participants from 30 nations. This is the largest SOF exercise to date. This exercise is regularly scheduled but takes greater significance due to the Ukraine war.
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Israel -
Russian Foreign Ministry says that Israel “supports the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv” and that Lapid saying ““The Jews did not murder themselves in the Holocaust” is “anti-historical.” The Russian foreign minister accused Israel on Tuesday of supporting neo-Nazis in Ukraine, Israeli FM Yair Lapid demands an apology from Lavrov over his comments about Jews.
OBSERVATION - Israel has been trying to remain neutral in respects to the Ukraine war, this action by Russia may push it to support Ukraine.
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Iran -
Biden Admin Won’t Block $10 Billion for Russian Nuclear Work in Iran, Blinken Says - Even as Russia wages war crimes, Biden admin will let it cash in to build up Iran’s nuclear sites
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Syria -
Turkey is drafting plans to return one million Syrian refugees to northern Syria, Erdogan said, under plans to build housing and provide services in the Northern Syria
OBSERVATION - These refugees have been an economic and political drain of Turkey.
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Turkey -
See Syria above
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Black Swans -
France has culled a record 16 million chickens, ducks and other poultry since November 2021 in one of the most severe bird flu outbreaks in years. In 2021, the country saw nearly 500 outbreaks and culled 3.5 million animals, mostly ducks.
OBSERVATION - Very similar if not the same bird flu that is decimating US flocks.